Predictions for the next update?

[Hermes_]

Anyone want to make some predictions for the next update? I'm thinking maybe some additions to the GC list and cards coming off the banned list, some tightening on the brackets.

[Lifeless]

Lol good luck with the finance angle I guess.

[Ruiner]

If Wizards would go back to releasing "Commander/Double Masters" type sets, that could dramatically affect some of the pricier staples. That should be a once a year type of set.

These bonus sheet reprints just aren't doing it in a meaningful manner.

[MAGUSZANIN]

If Wizards would go back to releasing "Commander/Double Masters" type sets, that could dramatically affect some of the pricier staples. That should be a once a year type of set.

These bonus sheet reprints just aren't doing it in a meaningful manner.

The Bonus Sheet stuff would be fine if they kept the drop rate the same as the previous The List sets. With a List/Bonus card in like 1/3 of packs, that means that every box would have roughly 8 hits. And with the smaller selection of the Bonus Sheet, that would translate to roughly 2-4 valuable reprints per box (ie, cards on the Bonus Sheet worth more than 5USD), or potentially more for some sheets.

So that IS a viable method. But with Bonus Sheet cards increasingly almost impossible to open in play boosters, the complete elimination of reprint sets, plus the curtailing of precons and secret lair print runs....... It is correct to say that WOTC has kind of deliberately cut themselves off of all of the previously available reprint channels. Which is a HUGE problem in the long run.

-----------------

As for an ACTUAL prediction for what comes of this meeting...... I expect that we get some more movement on updating the GC/Ban list. Most of the cards that got unbanned previously can probably come off the GC list, and that is good for making that list shorter and more comprehensible. There are a few more cards that are almost certainly able to come off, with varying risk of remaining on the GC list depending on the card.

I do not expect anything earthshattering here. Nothing like putting Sol Ring on the GC list and allowing 1 GC in B2 for example, even if that would be a good compromise IMHO.

We MIGHT get an expansion of the Brackets though. A 2.5 or something along those lines would be very good IMHO and help address a lot of the current nebulous grey area in the current system.

[Hermes_]

As for an ACTUAL prediction for what comes of this meeting...... I expect that we get some more movement on updating the GC/Ban list. Most of the cards that got unbanned previously can probably come off the GC list, and that is good for making that list shorter and more comprehensible. There are a few more cards that are almost certainly able to come off, with varying risk of remaining on the GC list depending on the card.

I do not expect anything earthshattering here. Nothing like putting Sol Ring on the GC list and allowing 1 GC in B2 for example, even if that would be a good compromise IMHO.

We MIGHT get an expansion of the Brackets though. A 2.5 or something along those lines would be very good IMHO and help address a lot of the current nebulous grey area in the current system.

I can possibly see Primeval Titan being put on the GC list

[ISBPathfinder]

I have a number of things I would love to see (this is a personal wishes list of mine not what I neccessarily expect). If I am being honest I wouldn't expect much more than some minor game changers to be adjusted:

1) Bracket 3 seems too wide and the jump to bracket 4 still seems like too much of a jump to me. I had always wanted to see something sort of in between where those two stand currently. I also don't see many people really willing to play bracket 4 as its outlined. I thought perhaps more oversight on 4 or reworking it some. Bracket 3 is wayyyyy too wide as well.

2) Game Changers Review - I think we should review and trade in and out several game changers. Sure I have suggestions I just think that some of them are fine but a lot of them aren't so amazing. Lots of super combo tastic cards like Earthcraft / Ashnod's Altar / Phyrexian Altar should all be on this list or just outright banned in this bracket.

3) Higher Bracket Restrictions - I actually think that the game changers being completely banned in lower brackets is a good idea, I just think that there should be an upper bracket list which are legal for high end but not for lower brackets. These cards could be combo pieces like Thassa's Oracle or even just high powered cards that they are afraid to impact the lower brackets with like Primeval Titan.

4) cEDH Banned List - lets be honest, the banned list for bracket 5 probably shouldn't look anything like the banned list for every other bracket. If you are going to give it a bracket of its own and a place of its own start with a banned list just for it.

EDIT: 5) Ban Sol Ring - I will be honest, I was never in camp to ban it for the last 15ish years. Maybe a year or so ago after well after they banned crypt I started seeing faster and faster decks where there was no counterplay it just turn 1 sol ring into T4-6 win. The amount of advantage is too big and the game is going too fast now to politics and turn it around if you ask me.

[onering]

I generally think that things are mostly fine now, and most problems result from people ignoring the key turns or lying to themselves about their decks being lower brackets.

I still see people who think it's fine to start knocking people out when they've only had four turns in B3, and their poor logic is "well, my deck isn't going to win on turn 6 so it's not B4." They argue that it's supposed to be fine if they start knocking people out on their sixth turn, so doing it on their fifth turn is just variance, but ignore that everyone is supposed to get six turns (it's not supposed to be the turn you win" and that the person they knocked out only got 4 turns. The big problem here is people not just building their decks thinking the key turn is a "win by" turn instead of a "don't win until" turn, but also actually building them a turn faster than that. Or people acting like it's just variance when they start one shorting people turn 6 in B2.

I'd have trouble thinking of a way to split B3 or B4 in a way that is meaningful. You could do a faster bracket than B3 that still has its GC restrictions, or a slower version of B4 without GC restrictions. I think there's appetite for both a turn 7 bracket without GC restrictions, and a turn 5 bracket with just 3 GCs, but having them both exist I fear would be confusing for players (since the slower one would have fewer card restrictions). Personally I'd prefer the unrestricted turn 7 bracket to the restricted turn 5 bracket because the latter would be more competitive.


As for the banlist, the only unbans I could see as reasonable are Rofellos (since his ability is insane ramp but is restricted to either mono green or decks that combo him with Yavimaya, limiting how much he would proliferate), and Recurring Nightmare (because it's like Panoptic Mirror in that they are both repetitive and both easy to break but you have to be fairly intentional to do so). I'd rather see no unbans, but those two would be the most logical given the other cards they've unbanned and the logic behind those unbannings. Both would need to be GCs.

I oppose Prime Time even as a GC because it can just grab Cradle and Field of the Dead and be overwhelming advantage very quickly, and then continue to accrue insane value if it lives. Being a 6 drop matters little in green, and as a creature it's better in green than alternatives that exist. The Primordial should stay banned for the same reasons, especially since it also nukes a permanent for each opponent.

Emrakul is obnoxious and grossly unfun to play against, as is Iona, and both are the sort of big splashy creatures newer players love to jam in decks. While making them game changers would keep them out of B2, they'd show up in B3.

Golos was a mistake when it was printed and should never see the light of day.

Prophet of Kruphix monopolizes time and generates a massive mana advantage far in excess of its mana cost. It makes The Notary Hobbits look like little baby ramp. In a 4 player game, it's a 15 mana ramp the turn you play it, mana that you absolutely can utilize because it gives all your stuff flash. It would be even better today than it was when it was banned because lower curves mean that decks can more efficiently use the mana it makes available, as decks focus on double casting rather than casting big bombs, and generally better card flow in most decks than a decade ago means Prophet decks won't run out of gas. Leave that crap in its cage.

For the GCs, Ad Nauseum should have never been on the list. Yes, it's a combo finder, but the sort of decks it's good in are already going to be restricted to higher brackets because of the key turns. The problematic aspects of ad nauseum are not going to show up in B2 because they already aren't allowed there, and are expressly not allowed early in B3. It also becomes difficult to actually include such combos AND the free counter spell backup within the 3 allowed GCs even if Ad Naus isn't a GC, and you give up better general use cards to achieve that. Ad Naus being used as risky card draw has never been a problem, and most B3 decks, let alone most B2 decks, will have a high enough mana curve that firing one off for value is generally going to hurt.

[ISBPathfinder]

This is just me sort of thinking out loud but my wishlist would have something along these lines:

Game Changer Adds:

• Earthcraft
• Constant Mists
• Rishkar's Expertise
• The Great Henge
• Ashnod's Altar
• Phyrexian Altar
• Warren Soultrader
• Tainted Pact
• Demonic Consultation

Game Changer Cuts:

• Enlightened Tutor
• Serra's Sanctum
• Gifts Ungiven
• Intuition
• Mystical Tutor
• Braids, Cabal Minion
• Orcish Bowmasters
• Biorhythm
• Crop Rotation
• Survival of the Fittest
• Worldly Tutor
• Aura Shards
• Panoptic Mirror
• The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Bans:

• Gaea's Cradle
• Thassa's Oracle
• The One Ring
• Sol Ring
• Rhystic Study

I do obviously have reasons for all my suggestions which I can elaborate if anyone cares. Just putting out my bingo wishlist. For the record, I own a cradle and 6x copies of The One Ring. I would happily ban them all for the good of the format.

[onering]

I'd leave bowmasters on the GC list. It can be way too effective as board control in B2.

Aura Shards belongs in the GC list because it's just flat out nasty in how it shuts down multiple archetypes. It's one of the nastiest hate pieces there is, and it has significant splash damage against decks that aren't focused on artifacts or enchantments that it is smart to run it even if you know you aren't facing any artifact or enchantment focused decks.

Tabernacle I'm unsure of. It needs specific decks to actually be good, and some decks can just laugh it off. I don't think it would be all that smart to run it in B2, but it would be extremely annoying. Not likely to see that in paper, but it's cheap online. The only reason I think it might be safe is that it was never ubiquitous online even before the brackets, it was actually pretty rare to see one.

[ISBPathfinder]

I'd leave bowmasters on the GC list. It can be way too effective as board control in B2.

Aura Shards belongs in the GC list because it's just flat out nasty in how it shuts down multiple archetypes. It's one of the nastiest hate pieces there is, and it has significant splash damage against decks that aren't focused on artifacts or enchantments that it is smart to run it even if you know you aren't facing any artifact or enchantment focused decks.

Tabernacle I'm unsure of. It needs specific decks to actually be good, and some decks can just laugh it off. I don't think it would be all that smart to run it in B2, but it would be extremely annoying. Not likely to see that in paper, but it's cheap online. The only reason I think it might be safe is that it was never ubiquitous online even before the brackets, it was actually pretty rare to see one.

I have literally never once seen Bowmasters go the distance. Like, I think at its best I saw it trigger like 3 times in a turn once. As the decks get less competative you tend to see less draw. Maybe its just my meta but I have actually never been impressed by bowmasters. I own like 3 copies and I have pulled it from most decks because my expected value is just almost nothing. When its a problem and threatens to do things it dies immediately and in other times it just sits there and does nothing. It theoretically can do things, I just never see it do anything.

How is Aura Shards different than someone playin Rest in Peace against your graveyard deck or Grave Pact against your non token deck? I just don't see it as an outlier issue card. I am not saying its bad by any means I just think I can come up with a bunch of other examples where its like ohhh no they have an answer that needs answering. What if someone theft or transforms your commander? I can come up with TONS of crappy answers that suck to deal with while messing up your board. I just don't see this as a worthy outlier to single out.

Tabernacle - I owned one for almost 10 years. I am not saying its trash or anything I just don't see it as being more busted than sitting on the token player with a Pestilence in play. Maybe because its a land but there are still a lot of outs like having good mana gen or just not being greedy as sin with your tokens. Its very beatable card and there are only like 10,000 variations of Strip Mine these days. I think I could come up with a lot of cards that are technically kind of problems in bracket 2 decks.

[DirkGently]

How is Aura Shards different than someone playin Rest in Peace against your graveyard deck or Grave Pact against your non token deck? I just don't see it as an outlier issue card. I am not saying its bad by any means I just think I can come up with a bunch of other examples where its like ohhh no they have an answer that needs answering. What if someone theft or transforms your commander? I can come up with TONS of crappy answers that suck to deal with while messing up your board. I just don't see this as a worthy outlier to single out.

I think the difference is that RIP is largely useless except against grave decks, whereas shards is powerful against most decks and unbeatable against some. Like the number of "cares about grave" cards is definitely way lower than the total number of artifacts and enchantments, and from a power level, being able to direct the hate is lot more useful (whereas RIP can throw the game if you disable an ally, plus that player is now forced to hate you out of the game). I basically never want to run RIP whereas aura shards is something I'd play in most GW decks.

I do think grave pact is probably worthy of being GCed for similar reasons. Not that it's unbeatable but it's really annoying to play against in a way that probably makes more sense in B4 than B3.

[3drinks]

Unban:

• Griselbrand and Iona, Shield of Emeria – the play patterns some are worried about are player issues, not card issues. Unlike Recurring Nightmare which is impossible to play fairly as the card exists on solely a counterspell or lose axis which is inappropriate to fair play guidelines. #FreeGbrand
• The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale – because again, how often do you actually see one in regular, random pickup games at the LGS (MODO is different entirely as cards are more plentiful and less expensive)
• Balance|4ed – gets shot

Game Changers:

• Grave Pact|8ed & Dictate of Erebos – instead of hitting a fringe LEG card, let's hit the cards that actually mutate the way the game is played. No one ever walks away from a grave pact lock game and says "I'm glad I played that" which is textbook definition of a Game Changer.
• Painter's Servant – if you must separate this from Iona/Grindstone, this card is the enabler and has zero fair uses. Not one time has it been used in scarecrow kindred, it is always to enable some sort of busted coverage (and not even in the interesting vein of painter-red + Absolute Law).
• Phyrexian Altar/Ashnod's Altar – I'm not in the camp of ban these mana altars, though I follow the logic behind the change/ Similar to why Sol Ring should be banned but understand it won't.
• Undercosted tutours I think there's a case for adding Merchant Scroll to the list, similar to the easily abused nature of Imperial Recruiter/Recruiter of the Guard which makes for a healthy conversation, but I do not believe they should actually be banned. Just a good healthy conversation about tutours costing low mana/single pips.

But what will actually happen? "Everything is fine, commander is wonderful, no changes."

[TheGildedGoose]

Forever grateful none of us are on the CFP.

[Moxnix]

My Wishlist game changer list changed to suggested number of GC's list mana crypt unbanned.

[materpillar]

Unban: 4 cards I really want to put in a Kaalia deck

I see no bias in this post at all.

[PrimevalCommander]

Primeval Titan will be freed! I can feel it.

[3drinks]

Unban: 4 cards I really want to put in a Kaalia deck

I see no bias in this post at all.

#thatsthejoke

[folding_music]

blanket ban on legendary artifacts gooooo

[onering]

Dirk covered Aura Shards perfectly. I'll just add that before the Brackets it was occasionally brought as a potential ban for the reasons covered. It would be correct to run it in every WGx creature deck in B2 just because it would blow up so many rocks and random artifacts and enchantments, while B2 enchantress and artifact decks absolutely don't need to be hosed that hard. In B4 it serves a purpose, and in B3 it's a reasonable include as one of the three GCs and helps keep enchantress in check, but in B2 it would be too oppressive against two archetypes that don't need to be hammered that hard.

Tabernacle I said I'm unsure of. Of the three I talked about it's the safest to come off, the only thing that gives me some pause is that B2 tends to be the introductory bracket and the refuge for people who hate that sort of effect. As a metaphor, it's kind of like using Poblano peppers in a dish for someone who absolutely hates anything even remotely spicy. Sure, they're objectively little baby peppers that only ever have the distant memory of what spice is like, but people will still cry about it. To continue with the metaphor, those people are probably still going to avoid them anyway so it probably won't matter.

Bowmasters I've seen perform fairly well every time theyve shown up in a game. I play mostly online and people generally run plenty of cars draw even in B2. Hell, B2 being a slower bracket means that the benefits of card draw accumulate over time, and wheels aren't exactly uncommon there. People are copy cats so they adapt to what they see, and the larger player pool online and the fact that you can get in more games means that it's a more mature meta and players adapt to it more quickly. Keeping cards flowing is just good no matter what speed you're playing, hell it's good even if you're just trying to do meme crap because it means you get to do even more meme crap! At least online, Bowmasters would be a beast in B2. I completely believe that in many local metas it would be a different story, but that's where rule 0 comes in. Rule 0 works better in regular playgroups or stores where people generally know each other and I always advocate house unbannings (or in GCings) because those can work.

[5colorsrainbow]

Reprints- My hot? take is I think we need 8 sets a year*: 5 standard with 3 UW and 2 UB, 1 set thats all to near reprint set, and 1 uw side set and 1 ub side set.

*if UB are gonna stick around

Shards- I run Qasali Slingers and it is very powerful and thats basically can make it so you are the only person with any artifacts/enchatments. And I will say compared to stuff like Rest in Peace, most players don't use some form of graveyard resource use, nearly everyone uses artifact and enchantments for resources with many decks needing those cards to help run so it can feel a lot more oppressive imo.

[3drinks]

I do think grave pact is probably worthy of being GCed for similar reasons. Not that it's unbeatable but it's really annoying to play against in a way that probably makes more sense in B4 than B3.

Exactly this. Grave Pact|8ED is not an unbeatable card, it's what it does to the game that's GCable. It's not Nightmare levels but there isn't a positive iMPACT that comes from grave pact games. It's all "oh cool you machine gun my board every turn", and that is entirely inappropriate in B2 play.

[cheonice]

This is just me sort of thinking out loud but my wishlist would have something along these lines:

Game Changer Adds:

• Earthcraft
• Constant Mists
• Rishkar's Expertise
• The Great Henge
• Ashnod's Altar
• Phyrexian Altar
• Warren Soultrader
• Tainted Pact
• Demonic Consultation

Game Changer Cuts:

• Enlightened Tutor
• Serra's Sanctum
• Gifts Ungiven
• Intuition
• Mystical Tutor
• Braids, Cabal Minion
• Orcish Bowmasters
• Biorhythm
• Crop Rotation
• Survival of the Fittest
• Worldly Tutor
• Aura Shards
• Panoptic Mirror
• The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Bans:

• Gaea's Cradle
• Thassa's Oracle
• The One Ring
• Sol Ring
• Rhystic Study

I do obviously have reasons for all my suggestions which I can elaborate if anyone cares. Just putting out my bingo wishlist. For the record, I own a cradle and 6x copies of The One Ring. I would happily ban them all for the good of the format.

I can get behind most of your suggestions, even if I don't agree wirh everything. But what's the problem with Rishkar's Expertise ?

[3drinks]

I would assume it's too much card velocity + a free spell wrapped up in one neat package. That's absolutely a warping effect, though I'm unconvinced I would GC it. I'd listen to the case though.

[PrimevalCommander]

But what's the problem with Rishkar's Expertise ?

I was thinking the same thing. About as puzzling to me as Crop Rotation being a GC already. Sure it's cards + mana, but it's a one shot, requires board presence, and has reasonable upfront mana cost. I've never seen anyone get salty about a R.E. unlike many of the other cards mentioned.

[ISBPathfinder]

I can get behind most of your suggestions, even if I don't agree wirh everything. But what's the problem with Rishkar's Expertise ?

Green unfortunately has a lot of super strong card draw options. Its true that a lot of them could be looked at. I named Rishkar's specifically because its strong draw paired with a good tempo effect on the backside of it getting a free 5 or less spell cast. I felt like it was significantly stronger than most of the other green draw spells that are similar due to it. I am not against naming several more that could also go on the list but its why I felt like specifically it and The Great Henge were standouts. The total mana invested into them can be almost net nothing due to their effects. I am less concerned with effects where you pay 5+ mana and get only draw but I still think they are significantly stronger than most other color's draw effects even on the ones I didn't name.

But what's the problem with Rishkar's Expertise ?

I was thinking the same thing. About as puzzling to me as Crop Rotation being a GC already. Sure it's cards + mana, but it's a one shot, requires board presence, and has reasonable upfront mana cost. I've never seen anyone get salty about a R.E. unlike many of the other cards mentioned.

I dislike Crop Rotation on the game changers for two main reasons:
1) There are so many other versions that are very very similar to crop rotation that it feels weird to only alienate this one single card. There are use cases that do make it stronger in some situations and weaker in others. I can name at least 10 mono green tutors that tutor any land to play that are legal though. Other than Primeval Titan none, of those are banned or game changers.
2) I feel like Gaea's Cradle is very strongly single handedly making rotation somewhat of a standout issue. I am not saying that getting access to good utility lands isn't strong but I have been advocating banning cradle of late and if cradle wasn't the thing breaking rotation I don't actually think its a problem. So my suggestion has been two fold with rotation in that I think we should ban cradle and remove rotation from the gcs list.