[Speculation] Ban List Update Prediction Thread

[DirkGently]

The quarterly announcement is coming in a week on 20 April, so let the baseless speculation begin!

I predict Emergent Ultimatum gets banned for being dumb and I hate it.

More seriously:

Most likely unban: gifts ungiven (yes please)

feels about the same as doomsday when used unfairly. When used fairly it's a cool value card with some political usage that I'd love to play.

Most likely ban: Expropriate (yes please)

Big, splashy, and absolutely miserable to play against. Purge it with fire. It also slightly weakens the incoming meteor that is EU.

Of course the big question is whether flash will get banned, but everything I've heard so far indicates that's unlikely. Personally I'm hoping for a protean hulk ban (not for cEDH, I just hate its filthy guts).

[Hermes_]

I'm gonna say flash is banned,we get a slight overhual on the rules regarding "outside the game". The cEDH reddit will then scream about something.

EDIT: Highly unlikely but a @cryogen ban

[cryogen]

The quarterly announcement is coming in a week on 20 April, so let the baseless speculation begin!

No changes to the ban list. Rule 11 reworded to say "Abilities which bring other card(s) you own from outside the game (such as Living Wish, Spawnsire of Ulamog, Karn, the Great Creator) do not function in Commander."


Reason: The ban list is still in a decent place (which I don't fully agree with on a personal level* but not from a "this is what you're doing wrong level"), so no changes need to be made for the format health. And with Ikoria and C20 1.0 coming out with total bombs, time is best spent seeing how those shake up the format. As for the rules change, a combination of talking with Toby and him saying the rules change to accommodate companion was actually very simple, and I saw some other poster point out that the rule could just change to say "other cards" and I bet they're right (and I'm sorry I wish I remembered who said it so I could give them proper credit).


* I still think Gifts is a safe unban, I'm adding Braids to my "safe unban" list, and I don't think Recurring Nightmare would be the worst thing you could free. And of course, Library just gets hated because it's a 1%er.

[ZenN]

"n0 cHaNgEs"

Except the things with already know about, like adding Lutri to the list and making the change to allow companions, which currently don't work and shouldn't anyway.

[pokken]

I think they are severely missing the boat not unbanning gifts ungiven. It makes no sense on the list with the way the game is played these days. I'm not sure it ever made any sense.

[ZenN]

I think they are severely missing the boat not unbanning gifts ungiven. It makes no sense on the list with the way the game is played these days. I'm not sure it ever made any sense.

Honestly, that's true of several cards on the list. I feel like the banned list needs a complete 2020 overhaul.

[pokken]

I think they are severely missing the boat not unbanning gifts ungiven. It makes no sense on the list with the way the game is played these days. I'm not sure it ever made any sense.

Honestly, that's true of several cards on the list. I feel like the banned list needs a complete 2020 overhaul.

I don't think there are that many cards really that it warrants a complete overhaul, but at the very least gifts and panoptic mirror

[Airi]

"Companion" rules change, Lutri ban reiterated for the 'official' update, and probably no other changes given the number of weird mechanics added that they'll probably want to see how they shake out.

[ZenN]

I don't think there are that many cards really that it warrants a complete overhaul, but at the very least gifts and panoptic mirror

Not that I want to get into an in-depth discussion about what does and doesn't deserve to be banned, but IMO...

• Braids, Cabal Minion
• Gifts Ungiven
• Panoptic Mirror
• Primeval TItan
• Recurring Nightmare
• Sylvan Primordial
• Upheaval

So many cards currently legal that are way, way worse than these. How did Protean Hulk ever make it off the list before Primeval Titan did?

[pokken]

Not that I want to get into an in-depth discussion about what does and doesn't deserve to be banned, but IMO...

• Braids, Cabal Minion
• Gifts Ungiven
• Panoptic Mirror
• Primeval TItan
• Recurring Nightmare
• Sylvan Primordial
• Upheaval

So many cards currently legal that are way, way worse than these. How did Protean Hulk ever make it off the list before Primeval Titan did?

Suffice it to say we're about half on the same page lol. Upheaval, SP and Primetime can stay banned forever

I don't like Rn as an unban cos it's on the reserve list, and think general policy should be against that.

[Wallycaine]

Not that I want to get into an in-depth discussion about what does and doesn't deserve to be banned, but IMO...

• Braids, Cabal Minion
• Gifts Ungiven
• Panoptic Mirror
• Primeval TItan
• Recurring Nightmare
• Sylvan Primordial
• Upheaval

So many cards currently legal that are way, way worse than these. How did Protean Hulk ever make it off the list before Primeval Titan did?

Suffice it to say we're about half on the same page lol. Upheaval, SP and Primetime can stay banned forever

I don't like Rn as an unban cos it's on the reserve list, and think general policy should be against that.

Yeah, having played when they were legal, Primeval Titan and Sylvan Primordial are on the ban list for good reason,

[ZenN]

Yeah, having played when they were legal, Primeval Titan and Sylvan Primordial are on the ban list for good reason,

I honestly can't agree with that. Nobody I ever played, either at the couple LGSs I used to frequent or in my own personal play group, ever found either of those cards to be a problem. I could see them being overwhelming in extremely casual metas, but that's no less true of tons of other cards that are currently legal.

To my earlier point, Protean Hulk is significantly more egregious than either of those.

[Wallycaine]

Yeah, having played when they were legal, Primeval Titan and Sylvan Primordial are on the ban list for good reason,

I honestly can't agree with that. Nobody I ever played, either at the couple LGSs I used to frequent or in my own personal play group, ever found either of those cards to be a problem. I could see them being overwhelming in extremely casual metas, but that's no less true of tons of other cards that are currently legal.

To my earlier point, Protean Hulk is significantly more egregious than either of those.

And all I can say is that I've literally never had a problem with Protean Hulk since it's unbanning, and haven't actually seen one. But Primeval Titan and Sylvan Primordials were the scourges of casual metas when they were legal. With Protean Hulk, you have to work to break it. With those two, you had to work not to... and then you fell way behind everyone else who was breaking it.

[pokken]

Yeah, having played when they were legal, Primeval Titan and Sylvan Primordial are on the ban list for good reason,

I honestly can't agree with that. Nobody I ever played, either at the couple LGSs I used to frequent or in my own personal play group, ever found either of those cards to be a problem. I could see them being overwhelming in extremely casual metas, but that's no less true of tons of other cards that are currently legal.

To my earlier point, Protean Hulk is significantly more egregious than either of those.

in competitive, sure. In casual metas I've seen maybe 5 hulks hit the board since it was unbanned and 3 of them were mine which just tutored for pathbreaker ibex.

[DirkGently]

I've had protean hulks come down, and they're usually up to some annoying nonsense. It's not always a game-winning combo, but the frustrating part about the card is that you don't really have the luxury of knowing until it's already happened.

I'm happy with primordial staying banned. I care less about prime time but it's whatever. Gifts is definitely the most exciting card to unban imo.

[ZenN]

It definitely depends a lot on the kind of meta you're playing in.

Back when Primeval Titan was legal, I played it in a couple decks, but I don't think he ever stayed on the board for a full turn cycle unless I was already winning that game, and of course it was a remove-on-sight threat if anyone else played it. A 6 mana Hour of Promise that eats a removal spell is fine, but hardly game breaking. Obviously left unchecked he creates a massive advantage, but we'd be here all day if we were going to try to list all the legal cards that are remove-on-sight threats that create a massive advantage if nobody interacts with you.

With Sylvan Primordial, I'll grant you that he has a much larger effect on ETB and doesn't need to stick around, and with clones and flickering he can be very obnoxious. I played him for a while when he was printed, but I can't actually remember ever having one played against me, so maybe I'm biased there.

[Wallycaine]

It definitely depends a lot on the kind of meta you're playing in.

Back when Primeval Titan was legal, I played it in a couple decks, but I don't think he ever stayed on the board for a full turn cycle unless I was already winning that game, and of course it was a remove-on-site threat if anyone else played it. A 6 mana Hour of Promise that eats a removal spell is fine, but hardly game breaking. Obviously left unchecked he creates a massive advantage, but we'd be here all day if we were going to try to list all the legal cards that are remove-on-site threats that create a massive advantage if nobody interacts with you.

With Sylvan Primordial, I'll grant you that he has a much larger effect on ETB and doesn't need to stick around, and with clones and flickering he can be very obnoxious. I played him for a while when he was printed, but I can't actually remember ever having one played against me, so maybe I'm biased there.

In casual metas, a big part of the issue was that clones/flickering/reanimation for everyone at the table all ended up centering around prime time. So yes, the first prime time typically got hit with a removal spell... but then he got reanimated, cloned, reanimated again, and by the 4th or 5th prime time everyone's out of removal because every one is a kill on sight threat, and everybody is packing a bunch of ways to bring him back or copy him to keep up.

[ZenN]

In casual metas, a big part of the issue was that clones/flickering/reanimation for everyone at the table all ended up centering around prime time. So yes, the first prime time typically got hit with a removal spell... but then he got reanimated, cloned, reanimated again, and by the 4th or 5th prime time everyone's out of removal because every one is a kill on sight threat, and everybody is packing a bunch of ways to bring him back or copy him to keep up.

While your point is totally valid, that's not really any different from what happens with a Consecrated Sphinx. Or Jin Gitaxias, Core Augur. Or Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite. I would much rather play a game where everybody has a Primeval Titan than one where everybody has a Consecrated Sphinx.

Either way, though, much of the removal that gets played gets rid of it for good the first time, like Swords to Plowshares, Path to Exile, Reality Shift, Anguished Unmaking, Utter End, etc.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's not powerful. I just don't think it deserves to be banned when something like Consecrated Sphinx isn't.

[Wallycaine]

In casual metas, a big part of the issue was that clones/flickering/reanimation for everyone at the table all ended up centering around prime time. So yes, the first prime time typically got hit with a removal spell... but then he got reanimated, cloned, reanimated again, and by the 4th or 5th prime time everyone's out of removal because every one is a kill on sight threat, and everybody is packing a bunch of ways to bring him back or copy him to keep up.

While your point is totally valid, that's not really any different from what happens with a Consecrated Sphinx. Or Jin Gitaxias, Core Augur. Or Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite. I would much rather play a game where everybody has a Primeval Titan than one where everybody has a Consecrated Sphinx.

Either way, though, much of the removal that gets played gets rid of it for good the first time, like Swords to Plowshares, Path to Exile, Reality Shift, Anguished Unmaking, Utter End, etc.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's not powerful. I just don't think it deserves to be banned when something like Consecrated Sphinx isn't.

I mean, that wasn't how it played out. All those cards were legal at the same time, and only one of them was getting copied/cloned/reanimated continously.

[BeneTleilax]

Ban Emergent, for being the concentrated incarnation of all %$#%$#% wincons. Gifts is Blue Buried Alive, which means it has a slightly higher annoyingness ceiling, because Blue. That said, I haven't seen Buried be that gross in casual, and if you're not running gravehate in 2020 ano domini, you've left as big of a hole in your deck as if you'd left out creature removal. I'd say ban flash as well, for all the reasons that nuisance should go away.

[pokken]

I mean, that wasn't how it played out. All those cards were legal at the same time, and only one of them was getting copied/cloned/reanimated continously.

My favorite thing to do was copy sylvan primordial with phantasmal image in one turn and wish you luck stopping me after I'm up 6 lands and y'all are down 2.

SP and Primetime require countermagic, that's the main difference. The table can collude to kill csphinx. And they do. But good luck stopping me after I've got cradle and deserted temple or coffers and urborg and you burned a removal spell on it. Hope your removal spell exiled because if not I'll e-wit and do it again.

[Drusus]

"n0 cHaNgEs"

Except the things with already know about, like adding Lutri to the list and making the change to allow companions, which currently don't work and shouldn't anyway.

Companions being allowed is just strange to me.

[onering]

I think the Hulk eats a ban. It's a ticking time bomb for casual, just an absurd amount of value with potential for the same problems as Prime Time and SP with getting blinked, reanimated, etc. Banning it would solve the cEDH issue while also getting rid of a card that actually has potential for being a casual problem (and tends to become one when people do run it). It was a worthy experiment, but this is the best compromise to cEDH I can think of without only being focused in cEDH. Hulk in casual is borderline, like T&N, so it's not a stretch to see it go and it helping to screw up cEDH should push it over the top.

Unbanned: Panoptic Mirror. It's about time. Combining it with extra turns cards is expensive and there are enough other efficient options to accomplish infinite turns about as easily as Panoptic Mirror that the cat is out of the bag. It does have some other potential issues (imprinting a wrath would be gross) and the potential to accidentally ruin games (like imprinting the wrath because its going to save you, and that ruins the game even though that wasn't your game plan going into the game), and it is of course repetitive. Still, jt's expensive enough, fragile enough, and has enough fair uses that I think an unban is worth it. It doesn't immediately win upon casting it, and can easily get you 2 for 1ed for a large Mana investment.

Recurring Nightmare: There are enough ways to do close to what Nightmare does, or what it does, that it's not that unique anymore, and grave hate is strong enough and common enough that it will be less powerful than it was and easier to deal with. Meren alone already comes close to RN, and with a little help in her deck she surpasses it. RN is an etb value engine or slow but repetitive reanimation engine, and we already have a lot of that. The most abusive things RN does, repeatedly cycling a couple of creatures in and out of the yard for 3 Mana a pop, is no longer a dominant and uncounterable strategy.

[onering]

I don't think there are that many cards really that it warrants a complete overhaul, but at the very least gifts and panoptic mirror

Not that I want to get into an in-depth discussion about what does and doesn't deserve to be banned, but IMO...

• Braids, Cabal Minion
• Gifts Ungiven
• Panoptic Mirror
• Primeval TItan
• Recurring Nightmare
• Sylvan Primordial
• Upheaval

So many cards currently legal that are way, way worse than these. How did Protean Hulk ever make it off the list before Primeval Titan did?

I'll vouch for how bad Prime Time and SP were for the format, they need to stay banned. They were not banned in the mtgo only banlist that came out a couple years ago to great derision, and they were just as bad and a big reason that format sucked for multiplayer. Not much has changed since then.

Gifts in iffy on. It's a 4 Mana instant speed tutor for a game winning combo. It's like doomsday, but easier to cast, and you can do it at the end of the turn so there's less of a chance of getting caught with your pants down. If Doomsday is in your deck, you've made the decision to build around it and it's stack. If Gifts is in your deck, there are plenty of gifts piles that win the game that are just commonly ran cards. That said, I'm not sure all these knocks against it are enough anymore. It may be time to give it a chance.

%$#% Braids. She's fine in the 99, but she's a completely miserable commander. Turn 1-2 locks aren't fun. I cannot imagine this format ever being in a place where that is ok.

Upheaval: that's a no from me dawg. Aside from the fact that it's a relatively inexpensive combo with any suspend card, anything hidden under enchantments like O-Ring, and just the fact that you have a commander, this presents far too much of an opportunity to flip the table. It just makes a mess of games, at instant speed. Worse, there are going to be plenty of times when firing it off is the correct call because it will save you, but the aftermath is miserable for everyone yourself included. Being instant speed is really a big deal, as it makes it useful reactively, not just proactively taking advantage of it like Jokulhaups, which is bad enough. The latter can at least just end the game, or put it in a place where people realize it's over. The former creates slogs that stop being fun long before they are over.

[ZenN]

Upheaval: that's a no from me dawg. Aside from the fact that it's a relatively inexpensive combo with any suspend card, anything hidden under enchantments like O-Ring, and just the fact that you have a commander, this presents far too much of an opportunity to flip the table. It just makes a mess of games, at instant speed. Worse, there are going to be plenty of times when firing it off is the correct call because it will save you, but the aftermath is miserable for everyone yourself included. Being instant speed is really a big deal, as it makes it useful reactively, not just proactively taking advantage of it like Jokulhaups, which is bad enough. The latter can at least just end the game, or put it in a place where people realize it's over. The former creates slogs that stop being fun long before they are over.

Upheaval is a sorcery.

Apocalypse and Dimensional Breach do very similar things at similar mana costs. Jokulhaups is straight up stronger in a planeswalker or enchantments deck. Cataclysm also exists. All of these cards lead to the same game state where either the player casting it wins or else everybody at the table is miserable.