[Speculation] Ban List Update Prediction Thread

[UnfulfilledDesires]

RIP Flash.

https://mtgcommander.net/index.php/2020 ... es-update/

[DirkGently]

Boo.

Not because I super cared about flash, but mostly because I wanted hulk to die instead.

And because no gifts unban. Lame.

[MrMystery314]

Ding dong the witch is dead. Let's hope this does something. I'll take it.

[cryogen]

I'd rather have seen Hulk bite it, but I'm happy for the cEDH players. Hopefully this experiment is a successful one.

[Hermes_]

I'm gonna say flash is banned,we get a slight overhual on the rules regarding "outside the game". The cEDH reddit will then scream about something.

EDIT: Highly unlikely but a cryogen ban

I WAS RIGHT on all but one (or one a half) prediction!

[cryogen]

I'm gonna say flash is banned,we get a slight overhual on the rules regarding "outside the game". The cEDH reddit will then scream about something.

EDIT: Highly unlikely but a cryogen ban

I WAS RIGHT on all but one (or one a half) prediction!

Phew... I'm safe for another turn cycle.

[pokken]

I think it's hilarious that they did this just in time for Jegantha-Sisay to take over CEDH so they can be proven correct basically immediately

[ZenN]

I think it's hilarious that they did this just in time for Jegantha-Sisay to take over CEDH so they can be proven correct basically immediately

It is undeniably very strong, though I'm not entirely convinced it'll take over. I guess we'll see soon enough, though.

[if4ko]

To be fair, Jegantha-WUBRGsoup is much worse for casual than Flash ever was.

[WizardMN]

I'd rather have seen Hulk bite it, but I'm happy for the cEDH players. Hopefully this experiment is a successful one.

Interestingly, I would have liked that too. I use Hulk in a couple decks, never for combos if I can help it, and it is very good. I am kind of torn with just taking it out on principle but since it isn't "broken" and doesn't contribute to combos, I have left it in. This is more of a weakness on my part though

I think it's hilarious that they did this just in time for Jegantha-Sisay to take over CEDH so they can be proven correct basically immediately

It is undeniably very strong, though I'm not entirely convinced it'll take over. I guess we'll see soon enough, though.

I have to admit that for something like this, my first thought is basically mirroring what Pokken is getting at. That is, there is the mindset of "here, we will give you what you want and now you will see that it isn't enough; your format is broken".

I have heard the arguments here, mostly Cryogen's, about wanting to bridge the gap a little and I can respect that. As such, I do legitimately hope that this solves the problem cEDH has been having. And not simply because I don't want more bans to happen like this (though the RC seemed pretty clear that this is probably never going to happen again). No, I feel that there is a benefit in trying to offer some acknowledgment and action based on a minority of our community if the issues are great enough and the detriment to the rest is nearly non-existent.

I doubt this quells every complaint the cEDH crowd has for the RC and likely causes complaints from the non-cEDH crowd to pop up. I am still not a fan of the ban from a philosophical standpoint but philosophy only gets us so far anyway.

[pokken]

I think it's hilarious that they did this just in time for Jegantha-Sisay to take over CEDH so they can be proven correct basically immediately

It is undeniably very strong, though I'm not entirely convinced it'll take over. I guess we'll see soon enough, though.

It's really hard to grasp what it means to have your entire combo in the command zone. It's truly unprecedented and I can't even imagine what the decks will look like once they get a month or two of spinning on them.

To be fair, Jegantha-WUBRGsoup is much worse for casual than Flash ever was.

Yeah, Jegantha is horsecrap everywhere so I would not be surprised to see it eat a ban just on the casual basis.

[Sinis]

I look forward to when Consultation/Tainted Pact Kess decks run riot and they come back asking for those to be banned, alongside Oracle.

And if not that bugbear, another, hitherto unrevealed one.

To add, also worth noting, the top thread as of 2PM EST after the Flash ban: "Why should the RC even exist? They should step down"

SPOILER

Show

Hide

I hope the flash ban was worth it for the truckloads of goodwill that will surely present itself at any moment.

[onering]

Thinking that legitimate tournament play is possible in a multiplayer format is a joke. I get cEDH as a way to experience the format at the highest levels of skill and power, but multiplayer tournaments are always going to be as much about politicking and luck as about skill and deckbuilding, assuming that everyone is running high tier decks and is at a high skill level, which is basically all of cEDH.

[if4ko]

I look forward to when Consultation/Tainted Pact Kess decks run riot and they come back asking for those to be banned, alongside Oracle.

And if not that bugbear, another, hitherto unrevealed one.

I don't expect the fever pitch to reach the point it did here. Consult+Oracle is sorcery speed and much more mana-strict than Flash. There's also the fact that Sushi Hulk will pivot to a Scepter package and Thras+Tymna will still be stronger than Kess. I think the contingent will be small, but not as vocal or as unified as the people that wanted a Flash ban.

While I disagree with your statements on the format, I do agree that Reddit needs to stop looking a gift horse in the mouth. I didn't sense a dismissive tone or condescension here, but an inconvenient truth. cEDH is very visible and vocal, but they are nevertheless a minority. The average player will be prioritized over them. Demonic Consultation won't see a ban because it's a Hail Mary tutor at a 75% table. Oracle won't see a ban because of the "more fun if you don't break it" clause. Thrasios and Tymna won't see a ban because they aren't inherently broken by themselves.

cEDH will be second fiddle to the casual side of the format, and that's honestly fine.

[RxPhantom]

I think we're being too kind to Reddit. Sure, there may be voices of reason, but they get drowned out a lot of the time by the sensationalist furor of the always-angry masses. It's a toxic place, by and large. Not that we don't have our moments here, but I'd argue that Nexus is far above the gold standard for polite debate on the internet. We're awesome, frankly.

/feelgoodmode

[BeneTleilax]

Yeah, I see the cEDH reddit as more representative of Reddit people than cEDH people. Pretty much all the mtg subreddits act like that, in my experience.

[DirkGently]

To be fair, Jegantha-WUBRGsoup is much worse for casual than Flash ever was.

I mean, flash was essentially meaningless in casual so while that's true, it's not saying much.

Is Jegantha a real threat in cEDH? I can see it being annoying in casual but I guess I figured a 5-drop with a tap ability wouldn't be cEDH viable.

[UnfulfilledDesires]

Jegantha, the Wellspring paired with Sisay, Weatherlight Captain is a developing cEDH deck. I suspect it's viable. CEDH TV has done a few videos recently. Various combo lines exist that only need Sisay & Jegantha to get started.

[pokken]

Jegantha sisay is absolutely going to be top notch in the format without flash. The main issue it would have with flash is the limited access to free counterspells.

Always having access to the entire combo let's you play way more ramp and use tutors aggressively for ramp too.

The sequencing available with sisay is pretty powerful too. You can list sandbag until you have enough mana to sisay plus find a haste enabler plus jeganth (13 mana is a lot but fairly achievable). The instant speed nature of the ability is kinda gross from an inevitability perspective

The other interesting thing about it is it's all creatures so swan song Nd stuff doesn't work. The stuff to deal with consult Oracle does not really overlap at all.

Deck is stone dead to a cursed totem tho it craps on everything.

[darrenhabib]

I've created a quite a few cEDH decks recently with..
Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy - viewtopic.php?f=36&t=24676
Zirda, the Dawnwaker // Kenrith, the Returned King - viewtopic.php?f=36&t=24764
Kalamax, the Stormsire - viewtopic.php?f=36&t=24499

But I've also created a Jegantha, the Wellspring // Sisay, Weatherlight Captain deck and tried my best to make it as competitive as possible. viewtopic.php?f=35&t=24789
It is very good, and if opponents don't have disruption, then yes you win on the spot.

But at the same time it is sorcery speed, costs 5 mana, and is very predictable in a cEDH game. There is no element of surprise and the other 3 opponents can be ready for you.
So I would consider my other 3 decks basically from these new sets to be slightly more competitive.

However I haven't played Kalamax, the Stormsire yet as its not available.

[onering]

Doesn't Sisay already have strong lines without Jegantha? I would assume that Jegantha would be a failsafe, a combo you always have access to if plan A doesn't work. Is that what you've seen Pokken, or are you seeing Jegantha as the plan A, and if so how is it forced through?

[pokken]

Doesn't Sisay already have strong lines without Jegantha? I would assume that Jegantha would be a failsafe, a combo you always have access to if plan A doesn't work. Is that what you've seen Pokken, or are you seeing Jegantha as the plan A, and if so how is it forced through?

I've only seen it once so far and they had a Hall of the Bandit Lord line that went for jegantha hard first.

The thing is there're a couple really compact combos with Sisay and Jegantha that aren't possible otherwise; the derevi/samut/najeela combo, and some lines with a chain of kioras.

My guess is the correct way to build that Sisay deck is going to be Jegantha is plan A. Your plan is to stick Sisay and untap with a haste enabler and then go off. It's awkward but extremely inevitable. It's interesting because you can just keep asking the question of casting Sisay until you get a haste enabler out.

There're also a lot of defensive tricks with it, and it can frigging tutor for Linvala

And, it's often a frigging 7/7, which is a fairly fast clock

[Sinis]

I don't expect the fever pitch to reach the point it did here. Consult+Oracle is sorcery speed and much more mana-strict than Flash. There's also the fact that Sushi Hulk will pivot to a Scepter package and Thras+Tymna will still be stronger than Kess. I think the contingent will be small, but not as vocal or as unified as the people that wanted a Flash ban.

I think that if you leave a pot on a lit stove forever, it will boil unless the pot is an ocean of water.

This will return, and the twin arguments will be "cEDH is bigger than it ever has been before; we think we deserve more representation" and "you don't understand how oppressive/problematic/unfair card X is, nothing even comes close!". Bookmark this comment reply, in a year or two, this will happen. It might not be Consult, or Tainted Pact, or Oracle, but it will be something, and it will happen.

There was once a time when people advocated for Hermit Druid's ban. The "Card X is problematic and a competitive utopia will reign after this one (1) ban is enacted" has been done before.

While I disagree with your statements on the format, I do agree that Reddit needs to stop looking a gift horse in the mouth. I didn't sense a dismissive tone or condescension here, but an inconvenient truth. cEDH is very visible and vocal, but they are nevertheless a minority.

Just like my first response demonstrated; post-Flash midafternoon once everyone's checked reddit on their lunch, "RC GTFO" was the top thread. And it was not by a small margin; at the time, it had a disappointing upvote of 50, while the "post-Flash ban brewing" thread had a colossal 11.

I'm sure there are nice cEDH players (we have some very nice posters inclined that way), but, I don't exactly see it on reddit in sheer upvote/downvote proportions.

Demonic Consultation won't see a ban because it's a Hail Mary tutor at a 75% table. Oracle won't see a ban because of the "more fun if you don't break it" clause. Thrasios and Tymna won't see a ban because they aren't inherently broken by themselves.

None of these cards should see bans because they're not problems for the vast majority of players in the same way that Flash wasn't a problem for the vast majority of players.

cEDH will be second fiddle to the casual side of the format, and that's honestly fine.

I hope so. That's been the mission statement for well over a decade, and I'd hate to see it change to be like every other magic format because 2% of players said "we want ours."

[pokken]

If there isn't a new bogeyman in cedh this time next year I would be very surprised. I feel like no one has truly grokked how fast people iterate on cedh design nowadays. The number of games played this year is probably 50x what it was 3 years ago.

My pick is still thass's Oracle for what gets people going next. That card is nonsense. The forbidden tutors are a lot of work and provide lots of angles of attack when they're trying to jace or labman.

[if4ko]

I don't expect the fever pitch to reach the point it did here. Consult+Oracle is sorcery speed and much more mana-strict than Flash. There's also the fact that Sushi Hulk will pivot to a Scepter package and Thras+Tymna will still be stronger than Kess. I think the contingent will be small, but not as vocal or as unified as the people that wanted a Flash ban.

I think that if you leave a pot on a lit stove forever, it will boil unless the pot is an ocean of water.

This will return, and the twin arguments will be "cEDH is bigger than it ever has been before; we think we deserve more representation" and "you don't understand how oppressive/problematic/unfair card X is, nothing even comes close!". Bookmark this comment reply, in a year or two, this will happen. It might not be Consult, or Tainted Pact, or Oracle, but it will be something, and it will happen.

There was once a time when people advocated for Hermit Druid's ban. The "Card X is problematic and a competitive utopia will reign after this one (1) ban is enacted" has been done before.

Notice how I never said it wouldn't happen. I only said it wouldn't reach the popular levels of support that Flash did, because Flash truly is a unique corner case. A future movement won't be as unifying as the Flash movement or Paradox Engine ban (which died for its sins in the casual side and should have gone).

I trust the community leaders not to buy into this and I trust the RC not to give in.

While I disagree with your statements on the format, I do agree that Reddit needs to stop looking a gift horse in the mouth. I didn't sense a dismissive tone or condescension here, but an inconvenient truth. cEDH is very visible and vocal, but they are nevertheless a minority.

Just like my first response demonstrated; post-Flash midafternoon once everyone's checked reddit on their lunch, "RC GTFO" was the top thread. And it was not by a small margin; at the time, it had a disappointing upvote of 50, while the "post-Flash ban brewing" thread had a colossal 11.

I'm sure there are nice cEDH players (we have some very nice posters inclined that way), but, I don't exactly see it on reddit in sheer upvote/downvote proportions.

The mods deleted said thread, thankfully. I'm not gonna try to defend this stupidity, and I hope "Reddit is a minority of the playerbase" rings true for the cEDH community as well. I think its leaders aren't like this and don't encourage this bad behavior.

Demonic Consultation won't see a ban because it's a Hail Mary tutor at a 75% table. Oracle won't see a ban because of the "more fun if you don't break it" clause. Thrasios and Tymna won't see a ban because they aren't inherently broken by themselves.

None of these cards should see bans because they're not problems for the vast majority of players in the same way that Flash wasn't a problem for the vast majority of players.

cEDH will be second fiddle to the casual side of the format, and that's honestly fine.

I hope so. That's been the mission statement for well over a decade, and I'd hate to see it change to be like every other magic format because 2% of players said "we want ours."

[/quote]

I'm glad we can come together and agree.