[mtgnexus] Random Card of the Day - Golgari Thug

[DirkGently]

Pretty sweet in limited. In commander it's kind of expensive for the effect. Humans are pretty light on commander synergy, so I'm not sure it has a place really. EDHrec lists its most common inclusion as haktos which seems...unsynergistic? I think if I was going to run it anywhere it'd be jor kadeen, the prevailer.

[Serenade]

Haktos/voltron would like it as protection from one-off sac effects?

Manly men!

[Sinis]

Tuesday, March 31st, 2020; Outlaws' Merriment

I really want this to be better than it is, but, it's just not very good.

[Outcryqq]

Outlaws' Merriment

I might try to stuff it in my Marath tokens deck, but even there it looks like it will just be mediocre. Obviously good with things like doubling season and other token doublers, but the whole deck is good at that.

[Hawk]

My initial gut reaction to this during previews was "much worse than Assemble the Legion", and as Assemble is much more widely owned and findable, why would anyone ever run this? EDHRecs seems to agree - Assemble is at 6015 decks, while Merriment is in a mere 600. I want to slow down today and examine that thought - is that right and true? Is Merriment always worse than Assemble? Is it so much worse as to be not worth running alongside it for redundancy? Let's have some context; Assemble is in the top five most played and arguably most powerful cards in the Boros color identity, coming in behind only staples like Boros Charm and Wear // Tear, toolbox extraordinaire Sunforger, and big splashy Gisela, Blade of Goldnight. Being a bit worse than that should still carve out room for some merriment to be had, and yet Outlaw's isn't even on the list of Boros staples (nevermind having a shot at popping up in Marath tokens or Marchesa blitz or whatever). Should we take a second look?

- Mana cost: Merriment comes down a whole turn sooner in ideal circumstances, so point Merriment. I will say that this is debatable and subjective, but 4 versus 5 is also a big deal. Lots of players are in the "3 lands + 4 action cards = keep" mindset for mulliganing, myself included. If one of our action spells is Merriment versus Assemble, a quick trip to my hypergeometric calculator shows we're 91% to be casting Merriment on-curve (i.e. to have drawn one additional land or rock by turn 4) but only 76% to be casting Assemble on curve in an average "45 mana sources" deck. It's also relevant that on, say, seven or either mana, that one mana point difference could be the difference between holding up for Chaos Warp or Return to Dust while also developing a long-term plan, and spending your whole turn assembling. In terms of actual mana cost, I'd call the cost a slight edge in purely Boros decks (where the increased Devotion is actually possibly an upside for fueling Iroas, God of Victory and other devotion spells), a slight annoyance in tri-color, and a major barrier toward running Merriment in Saskia or other 4+ color decks, for a wash overall. That means that when it comes to casting this, Outlaw's Merriment wins.

- "The Worst Case Scenario": In some/many metas and mindsets, people evaluate cards as "what if this card only does its thing once before dying to a boardwipe or stray removal spell?". In that case, Assemble the Legion gives a legion of one 1/1 dork, while Merriment has provided on average 2/1 of board presence (with some miscellaneous but not irrelevant abilities). If you really feel like your big splashy engine enchantments only get a single round around the table, you should 100% be running Outlaw's Merriment over Assemble in your decks.

- Scaling Power: Let's instead look at how these two stack up if you do get several turns out of them. It's a bit shaky but bear with me - I'm going to say that one outlaw is worth "4 points" (power + toughness + either the ping, lifelink, or trample) and a single legionnaire is worth 2 points (the power and toughness); the haste is irrelevant as both cards have all tokens starting ready to rumble. Let's also ignore that, in theory, Merriment could be cranking out Outlaws a whole turn sooner than Assemble - that'd be relevant in some sort of racing situation in Standard, but not terribly relevant for deck construction in EDH.

• Turn 1: 4 points Outlaw, 2 points Assemble
• Turn 2: 8 points Outlaw, 6 points Assemble
• Turn 3: 12 points Outlaw, 12 points Assemble
• Turn 4: 16 points Outlaw, 20 points Assemble
• Turn 5: 20 points Outlaw, 30 points Assemble.

As we saw in the Worst Case, Outlaws is literally twice as strong after a single turn cycle, and it is still ahead after two turn cycles and even after three. We need to make it four trips around the table without someone deciding to wreck our game-winning enchantment before Assemble starts to pull ahead, and it is only on the fifth cycle that Assemble is ludicrously, embarrassingly far ahead. Thinking about it in quadrant theory terms - I'd say Outlaws is much better when you are winning (it adds more power faster to close the door) and much better when you are way behind (providing more value immediately to try to dig yourself out, with the caveat that neither of these cards is amazing when you are very far behind), and also generally better when developing (the extra power on the first two cycles should carve you a better foothold, and I can't ignore the mana and tempo advantage there). Assemble is better if you are at parity as long-term it can take over the game in a way Outlaw can't. On its face that means we should say Outlaws is better (better in 3 of 4 quadrants), but I do think it's fair to say that in most EDH games, parity is the natural state compared to limited or standard games. What I hope this shows everyone (since it showed me) is that I think we all get so excited by what Assemble looks like with five assembly counters that we forget the road to get there. In terms of scaling power overall, I'd call it A Tie between Outlaw's Merriment and Assemble the Legion.

Synergy AKA "Magical Christmas Land": Let's be real - we SHOULD be weighing cards by those first metrics alone, but we're all playing normal EDH and not cEDH for that sweet Magical Christmas Land action. The elephant in the room is Doubling Season, and it's no secret that Assemble + Doubling is a match made in Naya. Suddenly your first trigger of Assemble gets two muster counters and then makes four soldiers! Next turn you are getting up to four Muster counters to make eight soldiers! Outlaw's Merriment definitely can't compete in that case. Obviously, if you are looking for an enchantment that makes dorks over time in Rith, Marath, Gahiji, or any other Naya deck, you should look no further than Assemble the Legion.

And yet I still want to look deeper. After all, of the 18 Commanders that most play Assemble, only four are Naya-aligned. By percentage Assemble shows up most in pure Boros decks and by raw numbers it finds the most homes in Queen Marchesa - Commanders that have to rely on Anointed Procession alone for their doubling needs, where the two cards perform exactly the same. Further, while the two cards (mostly) benefit the same from most go-wide buffs, it should be noted that because the tokens are higher power from Outlaws, they scale differently and better off of stuff like Rage Reflection or Aurelia, the Warleader or Gisela, Blade of Goldnight. And honestly, I'd also say that 66% of the time, it also is more impactful to be granting +2/+2 (from Agrus Kos) or the Menace (from Iroas) to some tramplers or lifelinks than to generic 1/1s. Two of the three also interact quite grossly with Archetype of Finality. Now it's not all roses - to be fair to Assemble, Outlaw is nigh-impossible to get tribal advantages out of since it makes creature types at random and none of its three are nearly as well-supported as Soldier is. What I'm saying is that overall while Assemble is going to be better in Naya or Soldier decks, I think Merriment has some real contending power in any other deck, and in particular should be, if anything, REPLACING Assemble in your average Feather, Iroas, Aurelia, Brion, or Marchesa deck (which are the most popular Boros and Mardu commanders that tend to run Assemble). Advantage: Close, but Outlaw's Merriment

TL;DR - I think the word "at random" scares people, and for sure there are going to be occasional feelbads where you really needed Friar Tuck's lifelink and got someone else, or really needed to snipe Mother of Runes with Will Scarlet before she was active but missed, or desperately needed Little John's trample and someone else came to the party. But if we overcome our initial biases and comforts, we can see that actually, in reality, not only is Outlaw's Merriment "as good" as Assemble - in many decks it is superior. Give it a try, and be merry! Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

[onering]

Hawk, you miss that Assemble has strong synergies with several powerhouse white and red cards that Merriment simply lacks. Doubling Season is nice, but it's no Cathar's Crusade. That combo ends games fast. It becomes a significant draw engine with mentor of the meek, in a color combo whose primary weakness is CA.

Really, the number of tokens is much more important than the type with these two cards. The tokens from Merriment are all better, but none are all that great in this format (unlike say 4/4 fliers or 5/5 wurms), so what matters isn't what the cards are putting on the field themselves, as both cards are pretty meh on their own, with only Assemble being impressive once it's hung around 4 turns. Once you are using the tokens for more than their bodies, that's when these cards become worthwhile, and Assemble is far and away the better card. I already mentioned Cathar's Crusade, after 1 turn both these cards give you the same effect, and from there Assemble runs away with it, giving an ever increasing amount of +1/+1 counters each turn while Merriment is stuck on 1. Purphoros? They both get you 2 damage to each opponent the first turn, then Assemble gives 4, then 6, then 8, etc, while Merriment stays at 1. Sac outlets? Same thing, 1 sac activation per turn with merriment, and ever increasing amount with assemble. Craterhoof? He like Assemble a lot better. Curve into him with merriment, if that's your entire board he'll give everything +5/+5. Curve into him from Assemble? +7/+7. Any etb triggers want Assemble over Merriment, even Pandemonium long term.

Even when you move beyond synergies, I'd argue that Assemble is both better while at parity, and better while your behind (if it's a combat centric meta) because the number of blockers is going to matter more than the quality, and Assemble let's you throw an ever increasing number of 1/1s into the trenches while Merriment just throws one irrelevant body out to block and die a turn, with a 1/3 chance it gains you some life. Even while your ahead, the tokens Merriment makes just aren't good enough to justify a quality over quantity argument. You'll get in a few extra points of damage in the first few turns, and that is not nearly enough to matter in this format. Merriment is only better in the fairly rare occasions that you'll be casting it when you just need those last few points against a reasonably open opponent. If your ahead and your opponent is able to throw up some defenses, your far better off going wide with 1/1s than slowly grinding out slightly better tokens.

In the circumstances you can generally expect in a game of commander, Assemble is almost always better than Merriment. It's better, though close, when both cards are on their own with no support, or when haphazardly thrown into a deck with no synergies. Once you start building around them, once synergies are in the deck, Assemble earns it's staple status while Merriment lags significantly. Even with tribal synergies, soldier is going to matter more than human. The random nature has nothing to do with Merriment being a poor substitute, even if you got to pick which creature token you get Assemble would still be better.

[Hermes_]

Do they even print tokens that match those abilities?

[DirkGently]

Agreed with onering. The specific stats are pretty meaningless in commander - it's the number that counts.
And one more thing I'll add - I wouldn't put either in a deck without synergies anyway. If I was just using the bodies to attack and block, neither is worth playing. So comparing them without synergies is almost totally irrelevant.

And don't forget skullclamp and sac outlets among your possible synergies.

The only time I can think of where I might play outlaw's merriment over assemble - in a deck where I'd seriously consider playing them at all - would be if my commander cost 5. Like maybe adriana, captain of the guard.

And one more note - commander is for high-rolling. Most cards aren't going to win games if they always perform average. It's the high rolls that win games - the games where you play assemble the legion into jokulhaups and it makes it up to 9 counters before the game is over. The game where it dies or the game ends in 3-4 turns...those weren't games where either card was going to be worth it, most likely.

Do they even print tokens that match those abilities?

Yes.

https://scryfall.com/card/teld/11/human-cleric
https://scryfall.com/card/teld/12/human-rogue
https://scryfall.com/card/teld/13/human-warrior

Gotta admit, they've got style.

[3drinks]

Wednesday, April 1st, 2020; Witch's Vengeance

Hey...there's a card I legit haven't seen. I musta been tuned out from ELD because I have no memory of it. Pretty rare sight for the Magic Encyclopedia to not know something.

I like it. I'd play it.

[Mookie]

Witch's Vengeance: insane vs Assemble the Legion, but only kills 1/3 of the tokens from Outlaws' Merriment, if one is unable to name Human for some strange reason. Therefore, Merriment is clearly better.

More seriously, it's a reasonable tech card against tribal strategies - Elves and Goblins, in particular, tend to be pretty small. Worth consideration if those are popular in your meta. Also good against many types of token swarms. Worst-case scenario, you can use it as semi-targeted spot removal - it gets around hexproof/shroud, so you can pick off smaller creatures like Geist of Saint Traft or Narset, Enlightened Master.

I'm not entirely convinced it's better than an actual board wipe though - -3/-3 misses a lot of creatures, unlike a straight board wipe like Toxic Deluge or Damnation. And while it's decent for picking off small hexproof creatures, I wouldn't want to run it over actual spot removal - three mana is sort of expensive unless you're picking off multiple creatures with it. And obviously, it's pretty awkward if your tribal opponent has a piles of anthems out.

Compare and contrast Engineered Plague / Plague Engineer - smaller effects, but also persistent, which can be relevant.

[Hermes_]

relentless rats laughs

[DirkGently]

Outside of metagaming, I can't see running it. Black has way too much better removal if you're not reliably getting multiple relevant creatures..

[Sinis]

Wednesday, April 1st, 2020; Witch's Vengeance

It's too weak for a tribal-meta card. It's no Tsabo's Decree, that's for sure.

[onering]

I'd never run this. Too many tribal decks just go over 3 toughness too easily, and its rare that this will actually do much outside of a meta call. Even as anti tribal tech, its mediocre at best. Not all cards are made for commander, this certainly isn't.

[folding_music]

*scratches head* The card can remove untargetable creatures and deals with cards on the level of Hapatra, Vizier of Poisons which live to create multiple tokens, always with the same type. It's not often a sweeper, but sometimes it's a three mana Aether Snap. The card's fine!

[toctheyounger]

In theory I like the card, including the flavour and artwork too. In practical play, tribal decks tend to play things like lords and tribal pumps, so I think there's a very good chance this doesn't do what you wish it did. I just don't think it's designed with our format in mind.

[Hawk]

Since 2 of the top commanders are humans that die to this, and humans are the most popular creature type, this is so underplayed in 153 decks. In this TED Tal...kidding! Only kidding. April Fools. Won't make that mistake again.

Actually 153 decks feels really high for a card clearly intended to be a Standard/Pioneer sideboard option against token or swarm decks getting out of control. This card feels bad in Commander. As noted, -3/-3 misses a lot, and three mana sorcery speed is also not a great place for a non-board wipe.

- If you want to hate on Tribes or tokens, you are likely better off with Engineered Plague, Plague Engineer, Night of Souls' Betrayal, or Tsabo's Decree as your weapon of choice. If a one-shot at 3 CMC is your jam to break swarms, I think I'd take my chances with something like Flaying Tendrils or Drown in Sorrow - -2/-2 feels like it'll be about the same as -3/-3 when it comes to wiping out tokens or utility dorks early on.

- Honestly, all of those seem dreadful outside of VERY specific metas - I probably just would avoid all of that and look instead to stuff like Curtains' Call or Sudden Spoiling or Ashes to Ashes/Reckless Spite as my "dubious 3 mana ways to fish for a 2-for-1".

- If you want a boardwipe on the cheap, you should play Toxic Deluge or Damnation. If you can't afford them, you can try Bontu's Last Reckoning, Crypt Rats, Pestilence, Black Sun's Zenith, Dead of Winter or Mutilate, all of which are shaky and situational but almost assuredly more reliable than this. More likely, you are better off just playing Crux of Fate or Life's Finale if, like me, you are too poor to own any copies of black's best boardwipes.

- A lot of the above also have angles for "one-sided wrath" that are easier to exploit, and if that is what you were hoping Vengeance did for you - you are a black deck, and it'll be easier to exploit Grave Pact engines or just Coffer your way into In Garruk's Wake or whatever than mess around with this thing.

[Serenade]

I'd run Night Incarnate instead. Hits everything and easier to recur. The only one black mana might come into play. Being a rattlesnake might come into play. Saccing it might come into play. I liked it since day one.

WV being sorcery-speed is bad, too.

[3drinks]

@Hawk dead of winter isn't shaky, you just need a snow base. It's overall quite reliable, you just need to commit to snow lands.

[KMA_Again]

Hawk dead of winter isn't shaky, you just need a snow base. It's overall quite reliable, you just need to commit to snow lands.

Yes, but a lot of snowlands can add up quickly in price. I prefer Mutilate in mono black due to how easy it is to get set up. Dead of Winter is not a bad card, just requires a lot of set up not everyone can do.

[3drinks]

Thursday, April 2nd, 2020; Mastery of the Unseen

White CA! I actually dig this, like a W whisperwood elemental. Need heavy creature base to use it, though not strictly - it still applies pressure when you have open mana. Neat.

[3drinks]

Hawk dead of winter isn't shaky, you just need a snow base. It's overall quite reliable, you just need to commit to snow lands.

Yes, but a lot of snowlands can add up quickly in price. I prefer Mutilate in mono black due to how easy it is to get set up. Dead of Winter is not a bad card, just requires a lot of set up not everyone can do.

Price isn't really a factour to consider when speaking about the strategic aspects of a card - but even if it were, snow lands are actually remarkably affordable courtesy of MH1.

[Mookie]

I run Mastery of the Unseen in my Brago, King Eternal deck. Cheating out random permanents from the top of my deck for 3W is a pretty good deal, and also occasionally lets me get nonsense like Angel of Serenity or other expensive stuff. One nice perk of random manifests is that people pretty much never point spot removal at it in response to a Brago trigger - it's really hard to play around people manifesting random cards. That makes it pretty easy to flicker the manifests. I don't flip things up that often for the manifest cost, but the incidental lifegain can be useful.

As for decks that don't have a ton of flickering.... it's not quite card advantage in white, because non-creatures will be stuck as 2/2s. I'd treat it more like a token producer (although being a nontoken creature is relevant for Soul of the Harvest and friends). Could be interesting if you have Crystal Shard or another way to bounce the cards back to hand. Alternatively, if you have a heavy morph theme (although you can't run it with Kadena, Slinking Sorcerer).

...and of course, if you're running a lot of creatures and plan to flip stuff up frequently, it's a very powerful lifegain engine. I remember the Standard decks with it and Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx getting to hundreds of life without too much difficulty. Could be interesting with Regna, the Redeemer.

[TheAmericanSpirit]

Mastery, much like Revenge of Ravens, was unbeatable in its respective limited play. It's clearly not unbeatable, but it is an infinite mana sink in white that draws you into any creature-based combo in your deck.

I think at its best it's finding you Heliod and Trisky, and at its worst, you're paying 4 for a 2/2 and a theoretical third of a card, which is really not bad at all.

[Serenade]

I always liked this card. Great name. Even if you can't flip it before it dies, you probably can bring it back with Sun Titan!