Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

[JovialJovian]

I only encountered Emrakul in the wild a few times, but not once was it cast for 15 mana, and yet it still overwhelmed the game. Fortunately in a 1v1 I was able to board wipe it away and also exile it in response to it's reshuffle because its controller had overextended and not kept up mana for the counter, but that's an outlier. The lack of interaction is the biggest issue, but second to that is the Annihilator 6. The extra turn is almost just a bonus in my estimation, which means that the 15 mana price tag is irrelevant to the power of the card.

Other than that one 1v1, I have only seen it in lower-power pods prior to it's ban (where I do most of my Commander play in general), where it absolutely dominates everything in its path. Less oppressive than some other things on the ban list for sure, but I can't think of a card off the ban list that is stronger than it, so it's definitely over that threshold in my book. Newlamog comes the closest, but again is vastly more interactive, it's that protection/evasion/annihilate combo that is just oppressive.

[ISBPathfinder]

I get a little confused by how horrible and game breaking I hear annihilator to be but how casual groups don't seem to have any issues with LD / stasis effects? The game relies on self regulation to keep a lot of things in check but then I hear of people being scarred by this sort of effect and I guess I question why this is specifically a sticking point of the social contract.

[Swift2210]

I get a little confused by how horrible and game breaking I hear annihilator to be but how casual groups don't seem to have any issues with LD / stasis effects? The game relies on self regulation to keep a lot of things in check but then I hear of people being scarred by this sort of effect and I guess I question why this is specifically a sticking point of the social contract.

Guess it comes down to how people expect to lose a game. I want it to be quick and painless. Some people want epic 30 minute turns on a board overflowing with permanents.

[Mookie]

I get a little confused by how horrible and game breaking I hear annihilator to be but how casual groups don't seem to have any issues with LD / stasis effects? The game relies on self regulation to keep a lot of things in check but then I hear of people being scarred by this sort of effect and I guess I question why this is specifically a sticking point of the social contract.

Personally, I don't mind annihilator (assuming the Eldrazi in question is actually being hardcast at an appropriate point in the game). On the other hand, I very much dislike MLD. I'd say the comparison is similar to the distinction between Felidar Sovereign / other 'win the game on your upkeep' effects compared to Coalition Victory. I feel that it is okay for there to be cards in the format that will win the game if they live a full turn cycle, whether that be Felidar Sovereign, an Eldrazi, Blightsteel Colossus, or anything else. However, cards that can only be interacted with via countermagic or other instant-speed disruption feel significantly worse to play against. (This is also one of the reasons why unbanning Emrakul would be obnoxious, since the extra turn means there is no window for sorcery-speed interaction)

The times when Eldrazi feel inappropriate for a game are generally in the early turns - if a player is getting annihilated out of the game on turn 4 or 5, that's usually too soon. In those cases, it's pretty rare for the Eldrazi in question to have actually been hardcast - instead, it is more likely that it was cheated in off Sneak Attack / Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge / Show and Tell / Quicksilver Amulet / etc. For most of those effects, it still gives a full turn cycle before the Eldrazi can attack and be interacted with, making them weaker choices than something like Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur or Sire of Insanity that has a more immediate effect... but, again, it is difficult to get Emrakul off the board due to her protection from colored spells, and it isn't guaranteed that someone will have a board wipe to cast as an immediate followup.

[pokken]

Being the one guy who gets annihilated and having to either scoop or waste my time is annoying. Why is it different than just being killed? I guess because it doesn't take as much resources as dealing 40 life through blockers.

I'd rather someone kill everyone with a combo than annihilate one person out. Annihilator is just hard to engage with. The 4 guys are not nearly as backbreaking but can be pretty brutal too.

[materpillar]

I get a little confused by how horrible and game breaking I hear annihilator to be but how casual groups don't seem to have any issues with LD / stasis effects? The game relies on self regulation to keep a lot of things in check but then I hear of people being scarred by this sort of effect and I guess I question why this is specifically a sticking point of the social contract.

I find Annihilator to be significantly more obnoxious than Armageddon/Stasis, Usually, Armageddon/Jokulhaups/whatever resolves I get annoyed then scoop because the game is over since the player knew what he was doing or because the game isn't going to be over for a couple more hours since the player didn't know what he was doing. Either way, game is over. Moving on with life. It's like ripping off a bandaid, sucks but whatever. That being said games need to end sometime or another, if the game has gone on long enough and it ends with Avacyn, Angel of Hope + Armageddon that's a-ok. If I'm on turn 20, I basically consider all bets off. Also, I once Reins of Power in response to Avacyn, Angel of Hope + Armageddon, and that felt delicious.

On the other side of things, I've never seen an Annihilator trigger go on the stack and see it improve the quality of an EDH game. All the gameplay around Annihilator is just not fun. Basically it reads: "Annihilator a bunch: This either does stone nothing or target player is basically dead, but not necessarily dead enough to scoop." It's very very frequently correct to Annihilate whoever is the weakest at the table because it'll have a maximized effect on them. So then they have to sit around while 3 players finish up the game which might take quite a while since they're the 3 players in the best position. This is extremely lame.

Annihilator in the mid-game will frequently just eat 4 lands. If that's the case you're probably casting 1 spell less per turn than the rest of the table. That's not "dead" but it's basically dead. Not dead enough to scoop likely, but dead enough you're mostly going to be watching everyone do stuff while you pray to miracle your way back into the game. Real fun. Woooooo.

Everyone running Armageddon knows exactly what they're doing to casual games. Not everyone running giant cool c'thulu monsters know what they're doing to casual games.

Being the one guy who gets annihilated and having to either scoop or waste my time is annoying. Why is it different than just being killed? I guess because it doesn't take as much resources as dealing 40 life through blockers.

This. Annihilator triggers are usually utterly crippling, or the boardstate is so clogged they do effectively nothing.

[onering]

Agreed with the above points. I'll add that IDK where the idea that casual metas are fine with MLD comes from. MLD is THE hated mechanic. even when its unreasonable to hate it (even people in combo approving metas hate MLD when its cast to lock in a board state that will win in a few turns). I think people have been getting more reasonable re:MLD, understanding that when its played smartly its a fair gg that requires a decent amount of setup and smart play to make work, and as fewer people are firing of random LoLmaggeddons at stupid times fewer players are seeing the bad side of MLD. The stigma of MLD means that those playing it tend to know what they are doing and are careful to ensure casting it wins them the game, and know the backlash they'll get if they use it as a table flip.

As for Annihilator, I differ from a lot of people on here in that I think its a perfectly fair mechanic, and that the only problem with it is that Wizards pushed it too hard for the titans, especially Emrakul. Annihilator 4 is either back breakingly unfun or fair depending on how early it hits, but 6 is just way too much. The lower Annihilator levels are really fair. They can be a bit weak sometimes, but the add up. In commander they run into the issue of the bodies they are stapled to being easier to deal with than in other formats, because of how likely people are to have blockers or removal capable of killing them. There are too few Annihilator creatures to illustrate what the mechanic has to offer, but anyone who has played with or against a Pathrazer or an Ulamogs Crusher should know that its completely fine on those creatures, and I think adds a fun amount of tension to the game. Had it returned in Battle for Zendikar, and been put on some cheaper creatures (think 4-6 mana) at smaller numbers (think 1, maybe 2 at the higher end) and some beefier dudes (think cmc 7-9) at moderate numbers (think 2-3), we'd have seen more interesting designs. For instance, a 3/4 flyer for 6 with Annihilator 2 would come down early enough to be relevant without being backbreaking and present interesting gameplay.

[Maluko]

I personally believe that Emrakul is one of the cards that will stay permanently in the ban list. Wizards themselves acknowledged that annihilator was an unfun mechanic and will likely never bring it back in a Standard set. And Emrakul has the biggest of all annihilator triggers, on top of its extra turn effect and difficulty in being removed. If Emrakul had a clause saying "when this creature enters the battlefield, if no mana was spent to cast it, sacrifice it", I think the card could survive in the format. As others have pointed out, if you're paying 15 mana for a spell, you deserve to win the game. But that's not the problem with Emrakul, the problem is cheating it into play. An Emrakul that is somehow cast for free before turn 10 and is not answered in a turn cycle is going to win you the game 95% of the time. Furthermore, unlike other powerful creatures such as Progenitus, Emrakul is not restricted by color. And the amount of cards that allows creatures to be cheated into play increases every year. Unless power creep goes through the stratosphere, I cannot fathom a scenario where Emrakul is safe to return to the Commander format.

[umtiger]

I personally believe that Emrakul is one of the cards that will stay permanently in the ban list. Wizards themselves acknowledged that annihilator was an unfun mechanic and will likely never bring it back in a Standard set. And Emrakul has the biggest of all annihilator triggers, on top of its extra turn effect and difficulty in being removed. If Emrakul had a clause saying "when this creature enters the battlefield, if no mana was spent to cast it, sacrifice it", I think the card could survive in the format. As others have pointed out, if you're paying 15 mana for a spell, you deserve to win the game. But that's not the problem with Emrakul, the problem is cheating it into play. An Emrakul that is somehow cast for free before turn 10 and is not answered in a turn cycle is going to win you the game 95% of the time. Furthermore, unlike other powerful creatures such as Progenitus, Emrakul is not restricted by color. And the amount of cards that allows creatures to be cheated into play increases every year. Unless power creep goes through the stratosphere, I cannot fathom a scenario where Emrakul is safe to return to the Commander format.

The juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze when it comes to cheating Emrakul. It's going to sound crazy, but...Emrakul isn't really scary being "cheated" into play. Annihilator isn't winning on the spot.

Now, I don't necessarily count Omniscience + Emrakul as "cheating" into play. So semantics does play a big part of this.

I feel that the real problem is that 15 mana ain't really all that. And this card is colorless. I feel most decks would be able to fit this into their plans.

[Mookie]

A very simple thought experiment: a player is running Baral, Chief of Compliance (or Geist of Saint Traft / Kefnet the Mindful / etc) and only a single creature, plus several Polymorph effects. Let us say that the single creature is Blightsteel Colossus (or Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger, if you want to stick to Eldrazi), and they are considering upgrading to Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, based only on the idea that she is more likely to live the full turn cycle to attack, and that if either of them attack, the defending player will lose the game. I've actually played against Kefnet polymorph.dec before (and my Zedruu deck is running Proteus Staff + a single creature if you want a second data point), so I think this deck archetype is a reasonable assumption.

Looking at EDHREC's top 100 cards, we see that the following cards can get rid of Blightsteel Colossus:

• Swords to Plowshares
• Cyclonic Rift
• Path to Exile
• Chaos Warp
• Anguished Unmaking
• Despark
• Merciless Eviction
• Utter End
• Toxic Deluge

The average deck is running 2.5 of these cards (StP is in 53% of decks that can play it, C.Rift is in 38%, etc → 250% total)

In contrast, the following cards can get rid of Emrakul:

• Merciless Eviction
• Supreme Verdict
• Ruinous Ultimatum
• Toxic Deluge

The average deck is running 0.67 of these cards.

This suggests to me that Emrakul is significantly more difficult to get rid of than Blightsteel or another indestructible creature - there are fewer cards that are capable of getting rid of her, and they are played at a much lower rate. Additionally, the spells required to deal with Emrakul are much more expensive than the spells capable of dealing with Blightsteel, meaning it is much less likely that it will be possible to deal with her when cheated out early in the game. If we assume they show up on turn 5 (after each opponent has drawn 12 cards), there is approximately a 62% chance of the table being able to deal with Blightsteel, and only a 22.4% chance of the table dealing with Emrakul - in other words, Emrakul raises the win percentage from 38% to 78%. That is a massive upgrade, and I would say it is enough to to push the strategy from meme-tier to actually viable.

math

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Using linear interpolation between hypergeometric probabilities, because I don't feel like doing math for partial successes:
P(1 answer drawn | 0 in deck) = 0.0
P(1 answer drawn | 1 in deck) = 0.1212
-> interpolate to 0.0812
=> P(any player has an answer) = 1 - (1-0.0812)^3 = 0.224

P(1 answer drawn | 2 in deck) = 0.229
P(1 answer drawn | 3 in deck) = 0.324
-> interpolate to 0.276
=> P(any player has an answer) = 1 - (1-0.276)^3 = 0.62

[Legend]

I get a little confused by how horrible and game breaking I hear annihilator to be but how casual groups don't seem to have any issues with LD / stasis effects? The game relies on self regulation to keep a lot of things in check but then I hear of people being scarred by this sort of effect and I guess I question why this is specifically a sticking point of the social contract.

Is there a MLD commander? I can't think of one.
Personally, I prefer annihilator (even in the command zone) to MLD, discard, extra turns, and being controlled by another player.

[onering]

I personally believe that Emrakul is one of the cards that will stay permanently in the ban list. Wizards themselves acknowledged that annihilator was an unfun mechanic and will likely never bring it back in a Standard set. And Emrakul has the biggest of all annihilator triggers, on top of its extra turn effect and difficulty in being removed. If Emrakul had a clause saying "when this creature enters the battlefield, if no mana was spent to cast it, sacrifice it", I think the card could survive in the format. As others have pointed out, if you're paying 15 mana for a spell, you deserve to win the game. But that's not the problem with Emrakul, the problem is cheating it into play. An Emrakul that is somehow cast for free before turn 10 and is not answered in a turn cycle is going to win you the game 95% of the time. Furthermore, unlike other powerful creatures such as Progenitus, Emrakul is not restricted by color. And the amount of cards that allows creatures to be cheated into play increases every year. Unless power creep goes through the stratosphere, I cannot fathom a scenario where Emrakul is safe to return to the Commander format.

The juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze when it comes to cheating Emrakul. It's going to sound crazy, but...Emrakul isn't really scary being "cheated" into play. Annihilator isn't winning on the spot.

Now, I don't necessarily count Omniscience + Emrakul as "cheating" into play. So semantics does play a big part of this.

I feel that the real problem is that 15 mana ain't really all that. And this card is colorless. I feel most decks would be able to fit this into their plans.

We (as in, everyone on here) keep going back and forth over which is the real problem with Emrakul, and they really both are. Hard casting her really isn't exceptionally hard to do with the colorless ramp options available and getting her out with the extra turn is just absurd. On the other hand, cheating her even earlier out and skipping out on the extra turn, while not a guaranteed win, is far more likely to just knock someone out of the game, and that's arguably worse than actually winning it, because wrapping up with a wincon and starting a new game is a better play pattern than screwing one guy early and having him then wait as everyone else plays it out. Whether its Sneak Attacking it in, something more permanent but less explosive like Polymorph, or ramping into her and casting her for the extra turn, Emrakul is a miserable card.

[ConstantMists]

I get a little confused by how horrible and game breaking I hear annihilator to be but how casual groups don't seem to have any issues with LD / stasis effects? The game relies on self regulation to keep a lot of things in check but then I hear of people being scarred by this sort of effect and I guess I question why this is specifically a sticking point of the social contract.

Is there a MLD commander? I can't think of one.
Personally, I prefer annihilator (even in the command zone) to MLD, discard, extra turns, and being controlled by another player.

I use Zurgo Helmsmasher as my MLD commander. Since he is indestructible on my turn and most all MLD is sorcery speed, it's a great fit. It's a board wipe deck running about 27 board wipes of various sorts, many of which involve MLD. If Zurgo is on board and you can remove your opponent's mana, good things are likely to happen.

[onering]

Yeah, Zurgo --> Jokalhaups is game