[MH3] Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student - Turn 4, draw half your deck

[darrenhabib]

This is a mid-range value deck ... ahh psych. This deck has one goal in mind and that is to -7 and draw half your deck and do this as quickly as possible. The plan is to ultimate on Turn 4 consistently.

There are essentially three mains ways this can happen, but they all involve casting Tamiyo on Turn 1.
There is a 6% chance that you can transform her on Turn 1, involving an additional u mana source (6 of them in deck) and either Brainstorm or Careful Study.
But transforming on Turn 2 is the main plan. There are 8 cards that allow you to draw two or more cards on Turn 2. With your natural draw step this works to transform Tamiyo.
There are also 10 draw a card (cantrips) and so you can string two of these together to trigger the transform.
On top of this because Tamiyo creates a Clue, if you have access to three mana on Turn 2 then you can crack the Clue immediately to draw and combine that with another draw card.
So with all these methods there is a 80% chance that you can transform Tamiyo on Turn 2.

Math

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This is mainly for me so I can recalculate if card quantities change.
Turn 1 - Additional u mana source (6) + Brainstorm/Careful Study (2) = 5.74%
Turn 2 - Draw two (8+2 tutors) = 63.280%
Turn 2 - Additional mana source (10) + Draw one (10) + Clue = 38.45%
Turn 2 - Draw one (10) + Draw one (10) = 7.829%
0.9426 x 0.3672 x 0.6155 x 0.92171 = 0.1963597473206136 = 0.8036402526793864 or 80%

https://math.stackexchange.com/question ... ill-happen

Now with +2 each turn, naturally you will get her to 8 three turns later and then -7 four turns after being transformed. It would be Turn 5 this way.
If you can get another loyalty counter on her then it will cut down a whole turn.
There are 11 proliferate (or basically the same) cards that can do this, with also 4 tutor cards to search for one, plus Savor the Moment which allows you to activate Tamiyo again.
There is a 70% chance you will transform Tamiyo on Turn 2 AND give her an additional loyalty to be able to -7 by Turn 4!

Math

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Turn 4 - Proliferate (11+4+1) = 87.194%
P(80%∩87%) = 0.70072608192126 = 70%

https://www.calculator.net/probability-calculator.html

All of this assumes that opponents don't remove her or loyalty counters due to attacking.
Her +2 is a powerful defense tool in the early game. Most creatures are going to only have 1 power during the first couple of turns, so she nullifies those.
To defend against 2 power creatures you really want a toughness 2 or more to be able to defend without dying. So I've really prioritized creatures that have 2 or more toughness that also benefit the deck in some other way. You really want to be casting a defensive creature on Turn 3 to block creatures.

This is the sequence you are looking for:
Turn 1 - Cast Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student
Turn 2 - Transform Tamiyo and +2 = 4
Turn 3 - Cast a creature that can defend. Tamiyo +2 = 6
Turn 4 - Cast proliferate 7 and Tamiyo -7

The chances of doing this sequence consistently is 64%, which is great because what that means is that you get to do the perfect sequence of plays over half of your games. The other games will just mean that you are probably a turn slower.

Math

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Turn 3 - Cast creature (19) 91.688%
P(70%∩92%) = 0.64248172999196 = 64%

Most games you'll be drawing around 40-43 cards with this.
The way to win is Thassa's Oracle with Tolarian Winds or Sea Gate Restoration.

Aggressive boards - Plan B
Let's say you are going last and each of your opponents plays a 2/2 on Turn. In a 4 player game a transformed Tamiyo is going to get attacked for 3 damage, so you'll be down a loyalty.
In these type of cases casting a creature on Turn 2 is more beneficial as it can block. Turn 2 - Creatures (15) 78.733%
Tamiyo does provide card advantage as a creature by generating a Clue each turn, and in fact just naturally you can transform Tamiyo on Turn 3 if you have four mana to crack two Clues.

Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student

DecklistCMCManaPricesChartsDraw 7

Commander

1 Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student

Draw Two/Three (8)

1 Brainstorm

1 Careful Study

1 Tempest Hart // Scan the Clouds

1 Tolarian Winds

1 Chart a Course

1 See Beyond

1 Winged Words

1 Whirlpool Rider

Draw One (10)

1 Consider

1 Opt

1 Peek

1 Thought Scour

1 Visions of Beyond

1 Gitaxian Probe

1 Ponder

1 Preordain

1 Serum Visions

1 Sensei's Divining Top

Proliferate (11)

1 Thirsting Roots

1 Contentious Plan

1 Experimental Augury

1 Ripples of Potential

1 Serum Snare

1 Tezzeret's Gambit

1 Cankerbloom

1 Pollenbright Druid

1 Evolution Sage

1 Flux Channeler

1 Staff of Compleation

Extra Turns (2)

1 Savor the Moment

1 Temporal Mastery

Tutors (4)

1 Mystical Tutor

1 Personal Tutor

1 Merchant Scroll

1 Spellseeker

Creatures (other)

1 Delighted Halfling

1 Collector Ouphe

1 Esior, Wardwing Familiar

1 Erdwal Illuminator

1 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy // Jace, Telepath Unbound

1 Ledger Shredder

1 Shigeki, Jukai Visionary

1 Spellskite

1 Sylvan Caryatid

1 Thassa's Oracle

1 Thing in the Ice // Awoken Horror

1 Wall of Blossoms

1 Wall of Roots

1 Elvish Spirit Guide

Enchantment

1 Mystic Remora

1 Sylvan Library

1 Rhystic Study

Instants (Disruption/Protection)

1 Pact of Negation

1 Dispel

1 March of Swirling Mist

1 Mental Misstep

1 Nature's Claim

1 Stern Scolding

1 Veil of Summer

1 Arcane Denial

1 Cyclonic Rift

1 Fierce Guardianship

1 Force of Negation

1 Force of Vigor

1 Force of Will

Artifacts

1 Chrome Mox

1 Jeweled Lotus

1 Lotus Petal

1 Mana Crypt

1 Mox Amber

1 Mox Diamond

1 Mana Vault

1 Sol Ring

Land (26)

1 Sea Gate Restoration // Sea Gate, Reborn

1 Ancient Tomb

1 Barkchannel Pathway // Tidechannel Pathway

1 Breeding Pool

1 Cephalid Coliseum

1 City of Brass

1 Command Tower

1 Dryad Arbor

1 Exotic Orchard

1 Flooded Grove

1 Forest

1 Gemstone Caverns

2 Island

1 Mana Confluence

1 Misty Rainforest

1 Otawara, Soaring City

1 Polluted Delta

1 Prismatic Vista

1 Scalding Tarn

1 Tropical Island

1 Verdant Catacombs

1 Waterlogged Grove

1 Windswept Heath

1 Wooded Foothills

1 Yavimaya Coast

Approximate Total Cost:

[PrimevalCommander]

64% chance to Thassa combo the table by turn 4? Sounds like this deck list belongs in the cEDH sub. No offense. Fast mana and free counters support this conclusion. I guess the main draw is that getting Tamiyo out turn 1 reduces your threat surface to counterspells since loyalty abilities cannot be countered by the free counters, and early game attackers are sparse.

[Phoenixlance]

It feels like this deck folds to a resolved Orcish Bowmasters, Notion Thief, etc. Maybe including something like Pongify/Rapid Hybridization/Resculpt could be worthwhile?

[darrenhabib]

64% chance to Thassa combo the table by turn 4? Sounds like this deck list belongs in the cEDH sub. No offense. Fast mana and free counters support this conclusion. I guess the main draw is that getting Tamiyo out turn 1 reduces your threat surface to counterspells since loyalty abilities cannot be countered by the free counters, and early game attackers are sparse.

This is totally goldfishing, I just wanted to hypothetically sort out statistically what was the shortest route to ultimate her, rather than maybe being the "best" version of her.
Any disruption is going to put a jam into the works. But you do make a great point about the reduction to heavy counter metas that its hard for them to interact once you are transformed.

It feels like this deck folds to a resolved Orcish Bowmasters, Notion Thief, etc. Maybe including something like Pongify/Rapid Hybridization/Resculpt could be worthwhile?

I definitely thought about Orcish Bowmasters, but the problem with Pongify/Rapid Hybridization/Resculpt is that I don't want a 3/3 4/4 early game in the cases I want to remove creatures as they would threaten Tamiyo.

There is Veil of Summer that you can draw into (draw half your deck) even after Orcish Bowmasters triggers are on the stack. There is even Elvish Spirit Guide to help pay for that if you are tapped out.
March of Swirling Mist is my creature removal at the moment.
I'm going to add Stern Scolding as another backup.