[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

User avatar
FoodChainGoblins
Level 47
Posts: 863
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Riverside

Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

rcwraspy wrote:
1 year ago
I haven't posted in a "state of modern" thread on here or on Salvation in a very long time. It has a lot to do with Twin being the singular topic, regardless of who "starts it".
I'm sorry man. I assumed some of the other "regulars" just moved on to something more important or got really busy?

I will try my hardest to stay off that topic (or anything if it really is bothering people). That's my promise. I have noticed that the population here has waned quite a bit, but I assumed that was due to 1) the movement from mtgsalvation to mtgnexus 2) the whole covid situation and paper being mostly unavailable 3) 2019/2020 design mistakes, and several other options. I truly would like to hear more peoples' output, seeing as our forum currently is about 10 people talking about 90% of the time.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Jeskai Phoenix, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

User avatar
cfusionpm
With that on the stack...
Posts: 1179
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: California, USA
Contact:

Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Greeksis wrote:
1 year ago
But its better than nothing.
No its not. It's in fact worse than nothing, because it's actively misleading. 🤦‍♂️

Jesus Christ. Enjoy your ghost town, I gotta take a break from the hypocrisy and insanity.

rcwraspy
Posts: 7
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by rcwraspy » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
rcwraspy wrote:
1 year ago
I haven't posted in a "state of modern" thread on here or on Salvation in a very long time. It has a lot to do with Twin being the singular topic, regardless of who "starts it".
I'm sorry man. I assumed some of the other "regulars" just moved on to something more important or got really busy?

I will try my hardest to stay off that topic (or anything if it really is bothering people). That's my promise. I have noticed that the population here has waned quite a bit, but I assumed that was due to 1) the movement from mtgsalvation to mtgnexus 2) the whole covid situation and paper being mostly unavailable 3) 2019/2020 design mistakes, and several other options. I truly would like to hear more peoples' output, seeing as our forum currently is about 10 people talking about 90% of the time.
All of the things you list certainly contribute also. But I do check these forums frequently. If there were topics more engaging than Twin I assume I'd participate to some degree larger than my recent zero participation.

I've recently been buying some reserved list cards - such as Mox Diamond, Lion's Eye Diamond, City of Traitors, and duals - for Legacy and EDH decks that I like. I very much want to play paper Legacy, Modern, EDH, and maybe Pioneer (I haven't played Pioneer yet but have many staples because I was drafting and playing Standard from original Innistrad through War of the Spark). I sold out of MTGO a while ago and don't want to buy back in even though no paper events are firing. I can't wait to start playing again and hope that Modern will be a big part of that.

User avatar
drmarkb
Posts: 593
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

To be fair politics is huge here too. We all basically agreed for the lockdown for 12 weeks or so politics was pushed to the background, even though we as the four UK consituent nations all made some late and poor decisions that could have been more questioned.

Trouble is post lockdown it got political. The irony is we end up with English decisions questioned in the press from the left, and by the opposition on the left, when the largely IDENTICAl decisions gave been made here in Wales BY the very same parties who were criticising in England. When the inevitable inconsistencies happen as lockdown eases a lot of crowing happened from across politics, by the right in Wales and the left in England, but that is just a return to normal shouting politics. Meanwhile the mayor of London called for face masks early in England where the ruling party is Conservative, but the Welsh government (same party as the Mayor of London different country) were very reluctant to bring them in at all, so there was no consistency between people in the same party according to what science advice they had. Meanwhile the right has divided into those who hate the lockdown, masks etc. who just don't trust the science, and those who do. The UK may have fewer anti science types, but they do exist, mainly on the right.. Still by and large we did unite behind lockdown at least.

Hopefully mtg will return in tme for all in 2021, but right now it will be the odd small paper event in a limited number of venues. I do not envy the US though, especially with the likeky percentage of people who won't sign up for vaccines, which by their very nature need a large uptake. I do envy the stimulus cheques though, we spent our money as a nation more sensibly on a widely praised furlough scheme that all the parties liked by and large. Better for the country but worse for my collection, judging by the stimulus induced price changes in mtg and other collectables.
Paper mtg will return, I hope, for you all.

User avatar
Amalgam
Posts: 151
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

I mean I personally have sold out of the game for the moment and probably won't buy in again until this is all over. With how often this format changes due to standard I can see Modern being a completely different format by the time paper magic is actually viable again. Honestly I think we are being way too hopeful for 2021 with how bad the USA is at the moment. You and I may not live there but what and how they do things definitely has direct consequences on the rest of the world.

User avatar
Wraithpk
Posts: 181
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Connecticut, USA

Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
My point was there is not an overwhelming majority of players who want it, more like an even split. There may never have been a 90 pc consensus on cards being unbanned, but I suspect that there probably was with Nactyl, whilst others never got near it, I agree. I was not really talking about the merits of the card or the numbers needed in the unban process.
Sure, and my point is that there's almost never going to be an overwhelming majority of players who want any card unbanned. That wasn't true for Jace, and it wasn't true for SFM. It was probably true for BBE, but I think all of us would agree that BBE was banned for way longer than it should have been, or maybe that it never should have been banned in the first place. Jace and SFM were both polarizing cards that some people thought were clearly too good for Modern, and some people threatened to quit Modern if they were ever unbanned. Well, they were unbanned, and they've both turned out to be fine. When you get to a point where half the playerbase wants a card unbanned, as you have suggested, it's worth taking a look at. If Twin could be unbanned and just slot in as another decent option in the format, that would be great! If it would be clearly the best thing to do in Modern, it should remain banned. I think the former is much more likely, and the early returns from Project Modern are lending evidence to that effect.
Greeksis wrote:
1 year ago
Underperforming? This seems wrong. The deck is winning things. Btw, this deck is a beauty. It also seems that its backup plan of Uro is great. Its also similar to the list I built two weeks ago.

Update: The top 8 features yet another UR Twin deck.

How exactly is this an underperformance?????????
Gods_Shadow answered you in your twitter message. The overall records of Twin have been pretty poor, and that was what I was hearing from their discord chat. Of course, it's only been 2 weeks, and the Twin lists can probably be better tuned, but I was reporting the early chatter from the Project Modern players. Like that winning Temur list, there are several things in that list that I think are bad decisions. I don't like the Bonecrusher Giants when they're only playing 2 Snaps and 3 Bolts, I don't like Pestermite in a W&6 format when you have Bounding Krasis to play instead. They have 5 non-islands with 2 Mystic Sanctuaries, and I think that's a mistake. Sanctuary is going to come into play tapped as their 4th land A LOT, and that will get you killed as a Twin player. Finally, they're only running 22 lands, which I think might be 1 or 2 too few (although maybe W&6 makes it ok).
Modern
ubr Grixis Shadow ubr
uwg Bant Stoneblade uwg
gbr Jund gbr

Pioneer
urIzzet Phoenixur
rMono-Red Aggror
uwAzorius Controluw

Commander
bg Meren of Clan Nel Toth bg

User avatar
drmarkb
Posts: 593
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

If half the player base want it, and the other half don't care or don't want it then yes, it is worth taking a look
If half the player base desperately want it and the other half vehemently don't then no, it is not worth taking a look.
Obviously the real picture will include those equivocal, but I think wotc know that for every person it enthuses it repulses another.

I don't think anyone threatened to quit Modern if SFM came back. Never heard anyone say that.
Never really heard it about Jtms, only that people thought it would be too good, not that they would quit the format if it returned. Maybe some did, the community was split on it coming back but there was no hatred for the card.


Neither are comparisons for Twin. The only real comparisons for me are DRS and, especially Pod.


I think wotc have a reasonable idea that as many hate Twin as not. Pioneer shows they ban on the what people want metric with Inverter etc., Legacy has shown they keep Brainstorm on the same metric. Modern has shown they make bans that are not on win rate (lattice). They are not brilliant with data, sure, but on something like this they have an idea.

User avatar
TheAnnihilator
Posts: 222
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: US
Contact:

Post by TheAnnihilator » 1 year ago

Someone challenged CFP to stop responding to Twin talk and he did (other than mentioning repeatedly that no one wanted to talk about Twin just a few pages back so he wasn't adding to the conversation anymore) and now suddenly everyone is itching to talk about this particular event in Project Modern because a Twin deck "dominated" it... Just saying it's pretty dumb what's going on, and even a little scummy if I'm being honest. I only say this since no one other than CFP has bothered to say it. If you don't want Twin talk, don't start/perpetuate it either. This is your opportunity to talk about other things.

Where I'm at in KY, masks are mandatory and worn in public, but most things are opened back up (save for some fast food places that aren't open for eat-in and banks). It's not like those who want everything to resume some amount of normalcy are vehemently refusing caution. At least not most. I personally think the COVID threat is not as serious now as it was initially, and many State governors agree, depending of course on the stats on each state individually. I've been attending FNM (fully masked the whole time) for a little over a month now. I've also heard that there have been issues of false positives being reported in Florida and possibly other states, not sure on the legitimacy of that claim tho tbh.

User avatar
Ulka
Posts: 717
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Minneapolis
Contact:

Post by Ulka » 1 year ago

Okay this has gotten out of hand again. Warnings have been issued and I'm tired. I was out of signal range the past 4 days to go camping and to get some R&R and I come back to flaming and Trolling each other. At this point Staff will be discussing the future of State of Modern and if we need to change things up to better balance discussion and such but for now Twin talk is banned until Staff decides otherwise. Any purposeful baiting or even comments made that seem to be made in purposeful baiting to staff will be infracted as trolling.

I also noticed the comments on moderation earlier. Currently there are only Two active mod for this Format and I'm modding several sections also. We hear your concerns and comments earlier and if you have concerns on moderation please reach out to the Moderation team and we can discuss it further.

We are at a precipice on the future of state of Modern and How everyone acts going forward will determine if it continues or gets removed. Keep that in mind when you post going forward.

Ulka
Modern: Goryo's Gifts | Heartless Architect | Soul Sisters | MonoGreen Devotion
Pauper: Blackened Eggs | Zombies | Zoo | Sultai Teachings
EDH:Bladewing | Blind Seer | Zuberi | He Who Hungers
EDH continued:Mishra | Kynaios and Tiro | Dosan | Zedruu | Mikeaus | 4 color ZadaMayael

User avatar
Ulka
Posts: 717
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Minneapolis
Contact:

Post by Ulka » 1 year ago

GOING FORWARD TWIN TALK IS BANNED UNTIL MODERATION STAFF SAYS OTHERWISE.
Modern: Goryo's Gifts | Heartless Architect | Soul Sisters | MonoGreen Devotion
Pauper: Blackened Eggs | Zombies | Zoo | Sultai Teachings
EDH:Bladewing | Blind Seer | Zuberi | He Who Hungers
EDH continued:Mishra | Kynaios and Tiro | Dosan | Zedruu | Mikeaus | 4 color ZadaMayael

User avatar
The Fluff
is this so?
Posts: 2123
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted
Location: Gradius Home World
Contact:

Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

Forgot to say this. Hard to believe Noble Hierarch is only 15-17 dollars now... it used to be a 50 dollar card. I guess double masters reprint + low activity of the format due to pandemic helped bring the price down

waiting for it to drop a little more.. then might get some. :)
Image
AnimEVO 2020 - EFZ Tournament (english commentary) // OE 2016 // POF 2018
want to play a uw control deck in modern, but don't have Jace or snapcaster? please come visit us at the Emeria thread

User avatar
Amalgam
Posts: 151
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
Forgot to say this. Hard to believe Noble Hierarch is only 15-17 dollars now... it used to be a 50 dollar card. I guess double masters reprint + low activity of the format due to pandemic helped bring the price down

waiting for it to drop a little more.. then might get some. :)
Honestly between masters/horizon sets plus the 50 other supplementary products we are getting yearly at the moment I can't see any non reserved list cards really holding any value until wizards changes things up. When we finally come out of Covid I wouldn't be surprised if Noble Hierarch had been reprinted 2-3 more times or a better card was printed in standard to replace it.

iTaLenTZ
Posts: 226
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

@ Ulka: Finally a reason to come back to this forum.

That said I wonder if Temur Reclamation is going to take over Modern as well. And looking at the future, because of the increase in powerlevel of Standard, new cards will have a bigger impact on eternal formats.

Aazadan
Posts: 547
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
Forgot to say this. Hard to believe Noble Hierarch is only 15-17 dollars now... it used to be a 50 dollar card. I guess double masters reprint + low activity of the format due to pandemic helped bring the price down

waiting for it to drop a little more.. then might get some. :)
A lot of cards are really low right now. Plus, we just got a whole new slew of extended art variants in addition to regular reprints. Hoping to pick up quite a few myself but I've been hesitating because I'm unsure of format confidence and when I can use the cards again.
iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
@ Ulka: Finally a reason to come back to this forum.

That said I wonder if Temur Reclamation is going to take over Modern as well. And looking at the future, because of the increase in power level of Standard, new cards will have a bigger impact on eternal formats.
Reading MaRo's State of Magic 2020 column was interesting in how he phrased the past year.

rcwraspy
Posts: 7
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by rcwraspy » 1 year ago

Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago
The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
Forgot to say this. Hard to believe Noble Hierarch is only 15-17 dollars now... it used to be a 50 dollar card. I guess double masters reprint + low activity of the format due to pandemic helped bring the price down

waiting for it to drop a little more.. then might get some. :)
A lot of cards are really low right now. Plus, we just got a whole new slew of extended art variants in addition to regular reprints. Hoping to pick up quite a few myself but I've been hesitating because I'm unsure of format confidence and when I can use the cards again.
Agreed. I'd give Double Masters another week or two for prices to bottom then buy anything you may want. At least, that's been the general pattern with prior Masters sets and the only reason I can think of that would change the pattern is little to no paper play due to COVID. Granted, that's probably a very large reason and uncharted territory when it comes to Magic paper prices.

User avatar
The Fluff
is this so?
Posts: 2123
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted
Location: Gradius Home World
Contact:

Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

I received an email from Starcity Games saying "iconic cards" can be discovered in Double Masters packs. Not sure what this means..
Image
AnimEVO 2020 - EFZ Tournament (english commentary) // OE 2016 // POF 2018
want to play a uw control deck in modern, but don't have Jace or snapcaster? please come visit us at the Emeria thread

User avatar
ktkenshinx
Posts: 571
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: West Coast
Contact:

Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Ulka wrote:
1 year ago
GOING FORWARD TWIN TALK IS BANNED UNTIL MODERATION STAFF SAYS OTHERWISE.
Thread rules (and other thread info) updated to reflect this.
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010

User avatar
drmarkb
Posts: 593
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Modern staples have generally declined, Noble is a poster child for big drops, but others- snappy, Bob etc. have gone the same way. The reason is not covid, the price on many staples has changed. Pioneer took a chunk out of the value of Modern as a whole. Fetches might be insanely priced but they are cheaper than they have been. Reprints obviously are most important in price changes, but above the reprints there is a baked in Modern price decline. When paper mtg resumes there will not be a big Modern upswing. Mire value in Modern will be in the enemy fetches and latest bannable mythic.

Noble especially gets less use than it did in Modern on top- Modern is not really a format for one drops dudes outside of the old Infect deck and humans. The one drop critter slot sucks in Modern and always has outside of mana dorks and good things at one cc have had a premium.

In short, the format had price heat removed by Pioneer long before covid, and with reprints and the game aiming at EDH snd churning out FIRE banlist worthy stuff the prices for older staples are unlikely to recover hugely.

The old 3 weeks to bottom price maxim no longer holds, it is more nuanced now. Cards like Force of Will can rebound a day after release whilst cards like Bob might head south for a couple of months, but generally for cards like Noble I would be pulling the trigger in a week or two.

Ugin caught people unawares in that it bottomed a few days after core set, but generally the difference between week 3 and 5 is not huge. So if people want Modern staples in 2XM now is the time.

User avatar
Simto
Posts: 324
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by Simto » 1 year ago

Definitely a great time to buy into decks or get cards you've been holding off on. Would have been sick if they reprinted Snapcaster Mage too so plebs like me who don't own any could get some at a lower price still hehe.
But I'm not complaining. There's been some really nice reprints and price drops for stuff I want.

User avatar
robertleva
Posts: 582
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by robertleva » 1 year ago

I think paper prices in general will continues to fall for the next 10 weeks at least. It hasn't really sunk in that expensive cardboard is useless without a social scene to appreciate it. After the election I could possibly see a slight bounce back if there is any major shift in policy in the US. If not I would expect the decline to continue indefinitely.
Robert Leva
Creator of Modern's 8Rack Deck
Image

User avatar
drmarkb
Posts: 593
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Make sure they are multi-format staples if you can. If you have held off a while for cards like Ugin in core set then great. But cards like, say, Cryptic command, Goyf and to a lesser extent snappy, are actually a bit vulnerable- they are only good whilst the format lasts, and over the next couple of years there are potential shake ups on that front that are hard to predict. Some cards will never come to Pioneer, and some are not good in multiplayer. These are the ones to be wary of. The barrier to entry to Modern is cheaper regarding staples, but you still need the damn fetches, so entrance into the format is not really cheap, which limits potential new recruits, whilst Pioneer has a lower barrier to entry. As ever, buying is always fine, as long as you are prepared to accept that a significant percentage may be unrecoverable, more so in Modern than any other format, including Vintage, simply due to the RL.

My sales have been super these past 3 months but notably skewed to EDH staples, Legacy mid value (e.g. duals) and Pioneer (cheap, but high volume).

The new normal is 5-7 GBP for high quality Pioneer rares, anywhere from 5-40 for EDH cards, whilst Modern powerhouses are more variable. Meanwhile gold standard RL cards like Mox or Cradle have skyrocketed.

User avatar
robertleva
Posts: 582
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by robertleva » 1 year ago

I can see the really hard to get out of print stuff going up. As collectors fear the worst they may want to shore up their collection and hopefully wait out the covid lifestyle. I have my doubts on the viability of this plan in the long run, but in the short term yeah, I can see it.
Robert Leva
Creator of Modern's 8Rack Deck
Image

User avatar
drmarkb
Posts: 593
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Stimulus cheques had a lot to do with it, and the fact that cheating in casual mtg over webcams is not an issue as it would be in competitive formats. Thus edh RL staples sky rocketed. They may come down, but not to the old price....RL is just the nuts if the card is played. If not it is always a trap..

User avatar
Simto
Posts: 324
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by Simto » 1 year ago

I think it'll be more than 10 weeks. I doubt prices will start bouncing back until things open up all over the world more or less.
Stores in Europe are kinda hosting in house events, but prices are still pretty low here compared to before corona.

Aren't prices between Europe and America a little different? I usually get the impression that prices are a little higher in America, or maybe it's just me.

Aazadan
Posts: 547
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
The old 3 weeks to bottom price maxim no longer holds, it is more nuanced now. Cards like Force of Will can rebound a day after release whilst cards like Bob might head south for a couple of months, but generally for cards like Noble I would be pulling the trigger in a week or two.
It's a lot harder to judge now for sure. I'm not too interested in buying in at the absolute bottom though. Getting them while they're on the cheaper side of things is nice because I'm saving money, but I'm mostly interested in playing rather than investing. As such I'm concerned about Modern and Paper going forward, I'm hardly the only person out there with major confidence issues in both right now, and while that further depresses prices, it is also a much more risky buy when I might get stuck with cards I never get the opportunity to play, and may have a hard time trading out of in the future if the future of Magic shifts mostly/fully to Pioneer and later and almost all online.

Not helping matters is that I'm still remembering how bad they burned all of us with Modern Horizons by releasing it and then right after the sales were done, announcing Pioneer.

Post Reply Previous topicNext topic

Return to “Modern”