[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

[motleyslayer]

Boseiju, Who Endures @Simto

I'm really interested to see the impact this has. I can see it being pretty good, especially because it can't be countered

[pzbw7z]

Boseiju, Who Endures @Simto

I'm really interested to see the impact this has. I can see it being pretty good, especially because it can't be countered

Pre-order prices seem to indicate that your supposition is widely shared.

[motleyslayer]

Boseiju, Who Endures @Simto

I'm really interested to see the impact this has. I can see it being pretty good, especially because it can't be countered

Pre-order prices seem to indicate that your supposition is widely shared.

My buddy sent me a picture showing it preordering at $30 Canadian, which isn't too bad. I can see it being hard to find for a while

[pzbw7z]

I'm really interested to see the impact this has. I can see it being pretty good, especially because it can't be countered

Pre-order prices seem to indicate that your supposition is widely shared.

My buddy sent me a picture showing it preordering at $30 Canadian, which isn't too bad. I can see it being hard to find for a while

The prices I've seen are around $40 US and up.

[Simto]

Oh boy.... magic prices...... Something I haven't missed after only having bought cards once or twice during the last two years.
Anything even remotely playable gets a huge preorder price and only goes up from there if it's actually worth anything on the table.

[Ed06288]

Expensive staples usually get banned or fall out of the metagame. Makes it very hard to buy in. May as well wait on some MH2 bans.

[metalmusic_4]

Pre-order prices seem to indicate that your supposition is widely shared.

My buddy sent me a picture showing it preordering at $30 Canadian, which isn't too bad. I can see it being hard to find for a while

The prices I've seen are around $40 US and up.

TCG is @ $36 right now. Low cmc, uncountable, main-deckable, wide spectrum removal at the cost of a comes into play untapped land slot. It has to see lots of play. Best card in the set by a big margin imo.

[metalmusic_4]

Regarding the ban announcement, I think it's important to realize an important distinction right now.

There are no competitive tournaments, other than Modern Challenges, right now. I think the Challenges have been pretty diverse and FNMs are diverse where I'm at. But if there were Grand Prix right now and the cream rose to the top, then WotC would be forced to look into bans. As everyone knows by now (and most already knew), they did not consider any Modern changes for this announcement.

Very fair point, except they banned in other formats. Who knows anymore.

[motleyslayer]

I feel the lack of larger events for modern, especially in paper is an important consideration. Modern is the most popular format, but the only real big events are the challenges. Once bigger events pick up again, I feel it'll be easier to find out if anything is actually a problem. Maybe I'm just too biased towards no bans right now, but I think there's nothing that's a real problem, despite there being several pillars of the format. The main reason by my logic is there are several good choices and several variations of what pillar cards go into. And that can change on a regular basis

[drmarkb]

They banned in other formats because they were obviously broken, Modern is more marginal and enjoys big events in paper in the way Legacy for one does not. Pauper is not a big event format, but the bans process there is different now.

[stille_nacht]

Missed the ship slightly, but I was hoping to see some niche unbans for Glimpse of Nature and Golgari Grave-Troll eventually. While I wouldn't consider either perfectly safe, I have a hard time believing either would necessarily be busted. And, even if they are, you can re-ban them without much splash damage as far as I can tell. I guess probably they'll never unban grave-troll just because it was embarassing to have to re-ban it the first time, but modern has changed a lot since then imo.

Dredge has been fringe playable for a while, but even during the few months where GDS lists ran a single spellbomb in the board and 4c stopped running any endurances, the deck only managed limited success. Any slight uptick in grave-hate immediately nerfs it. I feel that it's kind of unlikely that making golgari thug see 2 more cards is going to break the deck. Maybe I'm underestimating consistency here, but with MH2 access to voidwalker (which isn't even played right now), sanctifier-en-vec, and endurance, GY decks don't seem like a menace.

Glimpse seems more dangerous to me mostly because I don't know how it interacts with affinity, which is more about the actual affinity mechanic nowadays (and has seen moderate success). Elves I believe was playtested pretty thoroughly and seemed in-line with modern of 2017, which isn't exactly sending up any red flags for me. Nothing else really occurs to me.

[motleyslayer]

I'd have a hard time seeing a {card]golgari grave-troll[/card] unban considering it was already unbanned then banned again. While dredge did have a looting ban, which probably hampered it a lot. I don't know if the format will handle a GGT unban. Maybe I'm just wrong on this

[FoodChainGoblins]

I'd have a hard time seeing a {card]golgari grave-troll[/card] unban considering it was already unbanned then banned again. While dredge did have a looting ban, which probably hampered it a lot. I don't know if the format will handle a GGT unban. Maybe I'm just wrong on this

I agree. Dredge also would get a much bigger boost than one would think just with GGT. Ever since the introduction of 3 different "Cathartic Reunions" and all the graveyard creatures, I don't see Golgari-Grave Troll coming back anymore. Also with Otherworldly Gaze, I believe that Dredge has gotten a slight upgrade over the Horn. I haven't tested it yet and rarely play against Dredge, but I will be trying BUG Crabvine soon, so I'll let you know how Gaze faired in that deck.

Regarding Glimpse of Nature, I don't think it is quite safe yet. There are many other cards that are much safer. Even in a world of Prismatic Ending, Fury, and numerous other removals like Unholy Heat, coupled with the fact that not a single person in the world actually still plays Elves competitively, Glimpse is the type of card that could play around those somewhat. While I personally think the card is borderline unbannable, it's much riskier than other cards IMO.

*I know it's boring to only talk about Twin, Pod, or GSZ, those are where I personally would start on unbans in Modern (probably Lattice and Bridge from Below too, but there's too much hate from players and WotC for those IMO). I do appreciate the discussion of other cards occasionally.

[motleyslayer]

maybe Glimpse of Nature is less broken than I think it is but still nowhere near safe IMO. Even the 2 people I know who played elves at an FNM level stopped playing the deck in favour of other options. one picked up Yawg combo and the other actually made their mill stock, as that was their other deck.

I'd be all in favour of discussing what else could be unbanned in modern if that's a conversation worth having

[metalmusic_4]

Imo twin, GSZ, bridge from below, hypergeneses, blazing shoal and glimpse of nature are all safe enough to try unbanning right now. I'm sure all of those cards will see play but I'm not sure how competitive they would be. Twin and GSZ will be more competitive than the others but I don't expect them to be overly dominant. I could easily be convinced to unban more. The power creep is real and I feel the format can now handle these.

WotC has made it clear that pod will never be unbanned. Just go ahead and sit it beside hogaak, eye of ugin and tibalt's trickery.

Hypergeneses and blazing shoal are not commonly talked about. Infect is almost nonexistent and probably has better options anyway so I not afraid of it. Hypergeneses will win games but it is a fragile enough glass cannon that I believe it won't be competitive. I think living end, glimpse of tomorrow and to an extent oops all spells are really good comparisons for how it would play, what % of the meta it would occupy and its win rates.

[Tzoulis]

How is Blazing Shoal in any way, shape or form, safe? It's a free pump that allows the caster to hold open mana for protection.

[Ed06288]

Wotc probably has little intention of unbanning banned cards anymore.

[Simto]

Yeah, I don't think they have much, if any, incentive to unban anything. I think it would be cool to see what it would be like if almost all cards (except extremely obvious offenders) were unbanned. Just because it would be entertaining to see streams and games etc. And I have no life and want something interesting to turn my brain off to lol.

[metalmusic_4]

How is Blazing Shoal in any way, shape or form, safe? It's a free pump that allows the caster to hold open mana for protection.

Ok, my point of view is entirely based on consistentcy. If your infect deck is running several big creatures to pitch to blazing shoal then those same creatures are all dead draws without the shoal. And to be holding up mana for protection means you are running fewer threats and pump spells to begin with.

Imo this would just be another glass canon meme deck. It would win some quick games, but would not be consistent enough to really compete. I think the traditional infect builds, which are basicly gone now, would be better than the blazing shoal version anyway.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... fPfF05YYbP

The link above goes to an mtggoldfish article from December 2021 talking about which cards pose the most or least risk to unban. I don't agree with all his views, but the blazing shoal argument is convincing to me. It is discussed in the "S-tier why is this even banned?" section.

[Ed06288]

That Saffron Olive unban article was pretty good. There's a few points I didn't agree with, but I liked about 75% of it.

Blazing Shoal would require Progenitus in the mainboard. It's a gimmicky combo that makes the deck even more boom and bust. Unless it can run something besides Progenitus that also has general utility.

[Albegas]

Here's my issue with Blazing Shoal:

Let's say it was unbanned tomorrow. Awesome, but who's running it? It's a 2-card battle trick if being used for "fair" purposes, far too costly for anyone to build around. It's essentially destined to be used for a combo kill.

So should it stay banned because it enables a combo kill? Well no, at least not for that reason alone. But what does a Blazing Shoal deck look like? It will always seek to drop someone from 20 to 0 in one turn, and either the deck is consistent enough to be meta, or it will be as inconsistent as Neoform decks or Grishoalbrand decks of old. The latter likely breaks the turn 3 rule, and thus will not exist for long, or in the case of the latter, it leads to people bringing swingy combo decks to tournaments that will never truly succeed. No issue with the latter per say, but the latter brings an awful aspect of economics to it: it's perceived as a cheap entry to Modern, but it will either fail to succeed, which results in a long term loss of investment, or it will manage to get the tools to succeed, but a key part will be banned and destroy the investment. Either way, the unbanning of Shoal will lead to an inevitable loss of investment to those using it, and you know that those not using it won't be bothered by it at all.

Essentially, there's no long-term gain from unbanning Shoal. I would assume there's at least a few cards on the ban list that WotC feels meet that criteria: cards that won't break the meta now, but don't really create new decks that aren't potential T3 violators or contribute to some sort of strategy that WotC has already said they only want to flourish on small scales (Think Bridge from Below) and thus would lead to bad player investments and inevitable grief

[metalmusic_4]

I completely agree there are multiple cards in the "able to be unbanned now but could be broken later" catagory. Also agree there is risk of financial loss. Your points are clear and accurate. I personally don't agree that those things preclude an unban.

My goal is to keep the banlist absolutely as short as possible based on data.

Golgari grave troll was banned for many years before it was unbanned. It was unbanned for about 2 years doing absolutely nothing before new printings required it to be banned again. Imo that story shows GGT should have been unbanned much sooner as it posed no threat. Future printings will happen and cause bans, but preemptively banning is a slippery slope, why not just ban everything because some new printing years from now MIGHT break any individual card. The impactful future printings could be anything (unpredictable), could be years away or never come so I focus only on hard tangible data that exists now.

The turn 4 rule is in clear violation by several decks at this point. So the determining factor of is this ok is 1) Consistancy and 2) High level success. Turn 4 rule violators are allowed to exist if they don't meet those criteria.

Let's simplify money and be real, if you are worried about possible finacial loss you got the wrong hobby. I spent $2000 on cardboard last year. Our collections are money pits unless you are exclusively buying reserve list cards. If money is a major concern there are cheaper casual formats or pauper. Buying into absolutly any deck has risk. A tier 1 deck is at risk already of over dominance but added risk of future printings making it better, example ragavan made lots of decks better and now lurrus may need a ban because of it. But that could happen with any deck. Dredge with GGT was not ever tier for about 2 years then new printings broke it. My point is ANY DECK OR CARD COULD BECOME BROKEN BY NEW PRINTINGS and that would cause financial losses related to bans. I consider it an unfortunate, unavoidable part of the competitive scene but active management of the ban list is a separate issue imo.

[Ed06288]

Colossus Hammer on an Inkmoth Nexus can already win a game in a single combat step, I don't see why infect can't do the same.

Oh, and I'm thinking it's time to trade/sell all my copies of Wrenn and Six. While I think it has a lot of room to grow in price, I'd rather be ahead of the crowd.

[motleyslayer]

I'm not sure exactly how much the ban of Gitaxian Probe impacted infect but people lost a lot of interest in the deck after the probe ban. I remember seeing the deck a lot more after Teferi, Time Raveler came out but not as much anymore. deck still seems explosive but i'M NOT SURE

[FoodChainGoblins]

I'm not sure exactly how much the ban of Gitaxian Probe impacted infect but people lost a lot of interest in the deck after the probe ban. I remember seeing the deck a lot more after Teferi, Time Raveler came out but not as much anymore. deck still seems explosive but i'M NOT SURE

Remember, it was the combination of the banning of Gitaxian Probe AND Fatal Push being printed (and the new hotness in every deck). Both impacted the Infect deck and I presume that Fatal Push was more damaging to the deck IMO.