[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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ktkenshinx
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Post by ktkenshinx » 10 months ago

True-Name Nemesis wrote:
10 months ago
Let's not also forget these new powerful ramp cards in M21 are supposed to be in the same standard as Oko, ouat, WAR Nissa and various other ridiculous powerhouse green cards. If anyone's also following the Arena Player's Tour, UG is something like 35+ % of the Meta and has also overperformed in terms of conversion day to day.

I mean, look at this. It's just so ridiculous.



and

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Quoted and reemphasized for relevance. As I and others have been saying for over a year, Magic continues to demonstrate multi-format problems that transcend Modern. All formats are broken. All formats require bans. Any format that appears healthy, or even merely okay, is just doing so because it is seeing less play and iteration than the obviously busted formats. This is the natural consequence of failed card design from probably 2016 onward, and the compounding failures of Play Design to accomplish their mission and mandate. Until these issues are resolved, we will continue to see this multi-format mess continue into 2021 and beyond. Fixes start by players understanding and acknowledging this is a game-wide issue; stop vilifying specific formats, especially Modern. This lets Wizards off the hook every single time by allowing them to shift focus and pretend it's a player or format issue, not a fundamental game-wide failure.
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Post by idSurge » 10 months ago

Standard is and has been so bad. Like mind blowing bad.

I've mentioned this before, but ramp being the best deck is never good for a format.

Standard will be even worse unless some aggro gets a few cards soon.
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Post by cfusionpm » 10 months ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
10 months ago
Quoted and reemphasized for relevance. As I and others have been saying for over a year, Magic continues to demonstrate multi-format problems that transcend Modern. All formats are broken. All formats require bans. Any format that appears healthy, or even merely okay, is just doing so because it is seeing less play and iteration than the obviously busted formats. This is the natural consequence of failed card design from probably 2016 onward, and the compounding failures of Play Design to accomplish their mission and mandate. Until these issues are resolved, we will continue to see this multi-format mess continue into 2021 and beyond. Fixes start by players understanding and acknowledging this is a game-wide issue; stop vilifying specific formats, especially Modern. This lets Wizards off the hook every single time by allowing them to shift focus and pretend it's a player or format issue, not a fundamental game-wide failure.
Fixes start by players STOPPING BUYING and STOPPING PLAYING. Unfortunately, we don't have GPs (which WOTC is probably thrilled about) because their likely horrendously poor attendance levels would be a clear indicator of unhealthy unrest present in basically every format. But additionally, STUFF KEEP SELLING. Horizon sold like hotcakes, Eldraine was stupid popular, Theros moved like crazy, Ikoria flew off the shelves, promos and special versions frequently sell massive amounts, despite dwindling values.

If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times: Wizards does not know sh*t about their own game. They know how to read spreadsheets and compare data, but time and time and time and time again seem fully incapable of grasping the nuances that define any given format. They are either unable or unwilling to acknowledge or address problems and mistakes. And IF they ever right those mistakes, it is often well past when they should have.

And at the end of the day none of that matters because they keep selling product. None of our protests or outrage matter, because they keep selling product. And without GPs to boycott and show that we are frustrated with their failures of design and management, we have no way to get them to do anything beyond the bare minimum, because they keep selling product. This is a business. And if we're loud, annoyed, and angry, but we keep buying product, why the hell would they do anything differently?

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Post by idSurge » 10 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
10 months ago
Fixes start by players STOPPING BUYING and STOPPING PLAYING. Unfortunately, we don't have GPs (which WOTC is probably thrilled about) because their likely horrendously poor attendance levels would be a clear indicator of unhealthy unrest present in basically every format. But additionally, STUFF KEEP SELLING. Horizon sold like hotcakes, Eldraine was stupid popular, Theros moved like crazy, Ikoria flew off the shelves, promos and special versions frequently sell massive amounts, despite dwindling values.
Would be a hard sell to try and convince me that the leadership (Maro/Forsythe) are not very aware of how bad the game is perceived right now.
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Post by cfusionpm » 10 months ago

idSurge wrote:
10 months ago
cfusionpm wrote:
10 months ago
Fixes start by players STOPPING BUYING and STOPPING PLAYING. Unfortunately, we don't have GPs (which WOTC is probably thrilled about) because their likely horrendously poor attendance levels would be a clear indicator of unhealthy unrest present in basically every format. But additionally, STUFF KEEP SELLING. Horizon sold like hotcakes, Eldraine was stupid popular, Theros moved like crazy, Ikoria flew off the shelves, promos and special versions frequently sell massive amounts, despite dwindling values.
Would be a hard sell to try and convince me that the leadership (Maro/Forsythe) are not very aware of how bad the game is perceived right now.
Are they aware? Sure. Are they doing anything about it? Bare minimum, if even that. There is no need to cave to us enfranchised players as long as they are raking in cash for daddy Hasbro. Which they are. What obligation do they have to do otherwise?

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Post by idSurge » 10 months ago

Thats certainly part of the point.

Enfranchised, Competitive, 'Casual Competitive' players take the biggest hit.

True Casuals? Dont care. Just give them some random crap that they can throw into an EDH deck, and play once every few weeks, and call it a day.
Pros? Dont care. Whatever is busted/best, they play, and its all about that EV reward.

Casual Competitive players, the ones who play all the time, but are not grinders, and are not pro's, the people that Modern used to be serving best, are the ones taking the biggest hits lately.

I doubt we are the ones that Wizards prioritizes, I'm not sure they even know our demographic exists.
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Post by Aazadan » 10 months ago

@cfusionpm I cut my purchases back significantly after Horizons. I really can't overstate how betrayed I felt by that followed by the subsequent announcement of Pioneer, and then a notable shift in WotC's priorities away from Modern.

There's a lot of cards with extended borders I want now, but I'm trying to reconcile that with their previous actions with Horizons and massive development issues.

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Post by Amalgam » 10 months ago

How can anyone even attempt to defend Wizards anymore with how bad this %$#% has gotten. 4/6 of the cards on the current standard banlist are UG colors and despite this the only color combination thats good in standard is UGx. Honestly how does it even get to this point

Surely this is something that can be pushed back on Wizards to further the point of the awful job they have been doing on the game. Again this has to be visible and something they can't ignore

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Post by idSurge » 10 months ago

Amalgam wrote:
10 months ago
How can anyone even attempt to defend Wizards anymore with how bad this %$#% has gotten. 4/6 of the cards on the current standard banlist are UG colors and despite this the only color combination thats good in standard is UGx. Honestly how does it even get to this point

Surely this is something that can be pushed back on Wizards to further the point of the awful job they have been doing on the game. Again this has to be visible and something they can't ignore
Thats the part that is even more comical. Remove those cards from the banned list and its just a huge 'wut'?
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Post by Albegas » 10 months ago

Amalgam wrote:
10 months ago
How can anyone even attempt to defend Wizards anymore with how bad this %$#% has gotten. 4/6 of the cards on the current standard banlist are UG colors and despite this the only color combination thats good in standard is UGx. Honestly how does it even get to this point

Surely this is something that can be pushed back on Wizards to further the point of the awful job they have been doing on the game. Again this has to be visible and something they can't ignore
Modern players can't do much. As far as I know, most Modern players buy singles from card shops, not product, and even then we tend to only buy a few chase singles every set. Our impact on WotC's bottom line is a small fraction of the bottom line influenced by Standard and limited players. They're the ones who are most likely to buy new packs and the ones most likely to buy the majority of singles from new packs. Us not buying product and singles help to send the message, but Standard/Limited players are the ones who really need to put down their cards and say "Enough's enough" for WotC to really get the message. Remember, it was Standard that pushed the creation of F.I.R.E and the Play Design team after Kaladesh was a disaster. Whatever happened with Standard players back then, they need to do it again, not for Modern's sake, but for their own sake.

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Post by cfusionpm » 10 months ago

Albegas wrote:
10 months ago
Modern players can't do much. As far as I know, most Modern players buy singles from card shops, not product, and even then we tend to only buy a few chase singles every set. Our impact on WotC's bottom line is a small fraction of the bottom line influenced by Standard and limited players. They're the ones who are most likely to buy new packs and the ones most likely to buy the majority of singles from new packs. Us not buying product and singles help to send the message, but Standard/Limited players are the ones who really need to put down their cards and say "Enough's enough" for WotC to really get the message. Remember, it was Standard that pushed the creation of F.I.R.E and the Play Design team after Kaladesh was a disaster. Whatever happened with Standard players back then, they need to do it again, not for Modern's sake, but for their own sake.
The way we usually show our displeasure is simply not show up to GPs. When attendance drops like a stone, they start paying attention real quick. With no GPs for the foreseeable future... it's just a free-for-all of ignoring Modern. Even if/when it's firmly on fire, they'll put it off as long as humanly possible, then do as little as possible, and go back to ignoring us.

Honestly, if we could play in paper today, I wouldn't be.

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Post by th33l3x » 10 months ago

Sublime Epiphany would have been interesting if it had a slightly less powerful effect but was costed like Cryptic Command. An alternative top end spell to Cryptic whould have been really nice.

At 6cmc, this ain't it though.

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Post by Ym1r » 10 months ago

th33l3x wrote:
10 months ago
Sublime Epiphany would have been interesting if it had a slightly less powerful effect but was costed like Cryptic Command. An alternative top end spell to Cryptic whould have been really nice.

At 6cmc, this ain't it though.
I will NEVER give up on Cryptic Command!
Counter, draw a card.

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Post by Aazadan » 10 months ago

th33l3x wrote:
10 months ago
Sublime Epiphany would have been interesting if it had a slightly less powerful effect but was costed like Cryptic Command. An alternative top end spell to Cryptic whould have been really nice.

At 6cmc, this ain't it though.
6 mana makes it hard to play, but probably not impossible. I could see decks squeezing in 1 or maybe 2. They played 5 mana Teferi as a card they had to tap out for. An instant 6 is a lot easier to play than a sorcery 5.

It's really a question of if you get enough value I think. You're probably not countering an ability and a spell at the same time, but you can definitely get a counter (either), bounce, clone, and draw out of the card.

I do wish the bounce/clone was reversed on the template though so that you could clone your own creature and then bounce the original.

So the question is, does counter, bounce, clone, and draw equal out to being worth 6 mana? Snap/Cryptic, also 6 mana as a point of comparison is going to be along the lines of clone (get a creature), counter, and draw, or some other distribution worth 3 of the 4 effects. Of course, Snap/Cryptic are doing things before 6 to get you to the point to cast a 6 in the first place and that's worth some value for sure.

I'm seeing this card as more like Cruel Ultimatum than Cryptic Command honestly. But even that analogy isn't perfect as Cruel Ultimatum isn't Modern playable, and a sorcery 8 is orders of magnitude more than an instant 6.

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Post by pierreb » 10 months ago

Other spoiled 2021 card with modern potential:

necromentia: at 3 CMC being just fast enough to be relevant and hitting non-basic, this could help Jund. It can hit any strategy.
Chandra's Incinerator: double-bolt-like + this on turn 3 has testing potential for pure burn decks. At 6 mana, it avoids a few removal spells. Kinda like gurmag angler with upside, but for burn.
Speaker of the Heavens: maybe for soul sisters. Probably too weak and slow.
Experimental Overload: sideboard card for storm? No haste is a downer, but it can create a huge monster.
Niambi, Esteemed Speaker: (mis-entered in the DB as Niambi, Esteemed Healer), some human potential, but very probably not good enough to replace anything.

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Post by drmarkb » 10 months ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
10 months ago
drmarkb wrote:
10 months ago
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
10 months ago
FWIW, Gabriel Nassif just ran off the 10-0 in the Modern Challenge (he won it). His deck? Sultai Control or Sultai Pile. This guy is a serious gas player and just solidified my choice of him over Paulo Vitor Damo Da Rosa for 4th best player of all time (PVDDR at 5th).

He did a Tweet about the deck, getting help from chat. Check it out for those of you with Twitter. I don't have Twitter, but I have access to tweets, lol.
I played Nassif once when he was young in limited. He lost and was not a happy bunny, going 0-3 in the day's second pod iirc. Pretty sure it was steam coming out his ears as he lost to me playing like a donkey. He won his first big event not long after.....
That's pretty funny. I wish when I was becoming more competitive, I had put more emphasis on going to GPs instead of PTQs. I always felt like PTQs were better value, as I didn't care about making the PT at the time. But GPs are really just an experience that is like no other in Magic. I think I went to at least 50 PTQs before my first Grand Prix. But Grand Prix are the most memorable, including our buddy winning his first GP and in Limited. :grin:

And I definitely can see that. Most Pros are not going for the most friendly approach when they are in a match. That's one thing I appreciated so much about someone like Reid Duke, who is not trying to intimidate you, obviously not cheating because he's doing things slowly and deliberately for you to see, including drawing a card, and just very humble. While I've never had a super bad experience from beating a Pro, Reid Duke puts it on another level where I'm almost rooting for him to beat me.
Not sure if he was a pro at the time, he was young. I was playing like a donkey and had drafted terribly, I think his deck was not stellar either, I can see why he was not looking too happy. I was 2-4 on the day, so iirc he must have been 1-5 or 2-4. It was Euros iirc, I rarely GPd back in the day.

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Post by drmarkb » 10 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
10 months ago
idSurge wrote:
10 months ago
Yeah, my problem is not that it even suppresses anything. My problem is at a philosophical level with it. :p
My problem is Tron and Dredge and all sorts of decks which have no business getting access to counterspells get to play preemptive Cryptic Command against me for 1 mana. I had a match the other day against Tron; it's several turns in, I had slowed them down, answered several things, had Uro in play, and a hand of Path, Stroke, and Cryptic, but not enough to cast all of them. They start their turn, cast Veil of Summer, windmill slam Ugin, and -3. I just conceded the match in disgust. :sick:
Seems to me the fact that they cast it before landing Ugin meant it was not cryptic command, more like silence? They would not have drawn a card. Have you considered that the thing that has no business existing is a deck that can cast Ugin and Karn way before time? Ditto dredge.

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Post by pierreb » 10 months ago

drmarkb wrote:
10 months ago
Seems to me the fact that they cast it before landing Ugin meant it was not cryptic command, more like silence?
Veil is a modal spell. Choose one or more:
- Cryptic command
- Silence.

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Post by idSurge » 10 months ago

drmarkb wrote:
10 months ago
cfusionpm wrote:
10 months ago
idSurge wrote:
10 months ago
Yeah, my problem is not that it even suppresses anything. My problem is at a philosophical level with it. :p
My problem is Tron and Dredge and all sorts of decks which have no business getting access to counterspells get to play preemptive Cryptic Command against me for 1 mana. I had a match the other day against Tron; it's several turns in, I had slowed them down, answered several things, had Uro in play, and a hand of Path, Stroke, and Cryptic, but not enough to cast all of them. They start their turn, cast Veil of Summer, windmill slam Ugin, and -3. I just conceded the match in disgust. :sick:
Seems to me the fact that they cast it before landing Ugin meant it was not cryptic command, more like silence? They would not have drawn a card. Have you considered that the thing that has no business existing is a deck that can cast Ugin and Karn way before time? Ditto dredge.
Dredge would be a 100% fine deck, if not for Chill.
Tron, well I am open in my hate for Tron, but without the London Mulligan, I would be fine with Tron too.

Veil, has no business existing.
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Post by th33l3x » 10 months ago

Aazadan wrote:
10 months ago
th33l3x wrote:
10 months ago
Sublime Epiphany would have been interesting if it had a slightly less powerful effect but was costed like Cryptic Command. An alternative top end spell to Cryptic whould have been really nice.

At 6cmc, this ain't it though.
6 mana makes it hard to play, but probably not impossible. I could see decks squeezing in 1 or maybe 2. They played 5 mana Teferi as a card they had to tap out for. An instant 6 is a lot easier to play than a sorcery 5.

It's really a question of if you get enough value I think. You're probably not countering an ability and a spell at the same time, but you can definitely get a counter (either), bounce, clone, and draw out of the card.

I do wish the bounce/clone was reversed on the template though so that you could clone your own creature and then bounce the original.

So the question is, does counter, bounce, clone, and draw equal out to being worth 6 mana? Snap/Cryptic, also 6 mana as a point of comparison is going to be along the lines of clone (get a creature), counter, and draw, or some other distribution worth 3 of the 4 effects. Of course, Snap/Cryptic are doing things before 6 to get you to the point to cast a 6 in the first place and that's worth some value for sure.

I'm seeing this card as more like Cruel Ultimatum than Cryptic Command honestly. But even that analogy isn't perfect as Cruel Ultimatum isn't Modern playable, and a sorcery 8 is orders of magnitude more than an instant 6.
I guess the closest thing to it is Torrential Gearhulk. That card is definitly playable. I think Gearhulk is almost always better than Epiphany though. Having a guaranteed 5/6 body is what puts it ahead. Slightly lower ceiling, but more flexibility and higher bottom.

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Post by Aazadan » 10 months ago

th33l3x wrote:
10 months ago
I guess the closest thing to it is Torrential Gearhulk. That card is definitly playable. I think Gearhulk is almost always better than Epiphany though. Having a guaranteed 5/6 body is what puts it ahead. Slightly lower ceiling, but more flexibility and higher bottom.
I thought of making this comparison as well, but didn't because if you could afford 2 6 drops this plus a Gearhulk is likely stronger than just a lone Gearhulk. Additionally, Gearhulk is a lot more value since the free card generates some. In a typical good scenario you get a Cryptic Command out of it for 10 mana in value from your 6 spent.

Maybe you could live the dream here one day and go Gearhulk, free cast this, get 3 to 4 modes, clone your Gearhulk, use clone Gearhulk to cast a Cryptic Command.

Anyways, the card is probably worse than Gearhulk, I can't think of any evaluations where Gearhulk isn't better (aside from the above, which still requires a Gearhulk), probably still playable though.

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Post by cfusionpm » 10 months ago

In no universe is Sublime Epiphany remotely playable in anything except maybe U Tron and Commander.

But even then, Mystic Confluence is better most of the time in Commander (and still doesn't see much play because of being 5 mana), and Cryptic Command just holds so much more usable and meaningful utility for much less cost.

6 mana needs to win you the game. Not durdle around, maybe do some stuff, maybe counter a thing, and draw a card,

This would have been incredible at 4 mana with pick two. It would make people seriously consider the deckbuilding choices of that VS Cryptic. Is tap the team important? Is hitting a triggered ability important? Is bouncing a land important? Is a token important? Those would have been rich and engaging questions to struggle with when choosing the 4CMC reactive slot. But at 6 mana? Not remotely worth time thinking about.

This shouldn't be a conversation. Sublime Epiphany is flatly and laughably unplayable in competitive Modern.

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Post by Aazadan » 10 months ago

Snap cryptic doesn't win the game, it puts you on that path but will probably not win on its own. That's also 6 at instant.

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Post by cfusionpm » 10 months ago

Snapcaster Mage is not 6 mana. It's 2 mana with the ability to flashback anything in your yard. Let's not pretend these are remotely the same.

Maybe.... MAYBE if this card had something like 2cmc pick one, kicker 4 to pick the rest? But it's not. It's always 6 mana. And 6 mana is unplayable unless you are cheating costs or your lands tap for 2+ each.

I sometimes question if others are playing the same Modern format I am...

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Post by Aazadan » 10 months ago

I brought that up when evaluating it earlier, a 4 and 2 combined to make 6 is different from just 6. Because it also gets you to 6 in the first place.

In the Modern format I'm watching though as I see people stream? I'm seeing a lot of people getting to 6 mana. It's a high powered and lopsided format for sure, but the games are not ending on turn 3 or 4 for the most part. Anyways, I never said it was the best card in the format or anything, just evaluating within the context of other viable or recently viable (as the 2019 and on meta has been... bad) high mana plays. 5 mana Teferi, Snap+Cryptic, and Torrential Gearhulk being 3 of those.
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