[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Ed06288
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Post by Ed06288 » 1 year ago

i want to second drmarkb in that golgari grave troll is not as bad as it seems. i remember a time when it got unbanned and it saw almost no competitive play. it wasn't until eldritch moon that dredge become a problem.

also, i forgot about architects of will. if i run across some, i'll try adding those to my collection.

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Post by TheBoulderer » 1 year ago

that's not untrue. GGT having dredge 6 instead of Imp's dredge 5 isn't a huge improvement. It's better, but not by a large margin. Also Imp can far more easily come down as a 1/2 deathtouch blocker in a pinch, GGT at cmc5 is extremely hard to cast.

Amalgam or even Cathartic Reunion, I´'m kinda fine with. Without Amalgam, Dredge would not be a deck in modern, and Cathartic Reunion needs a large enough investment that its a real blow it if gets countered.

The card I've never understood was Creeping Chill. (Actually, every comment everybody has ever made, including me, about "not understanding" how some card could be printed has to be viewed in the context of them officially not testing for modern, so I actually do understand why the card was printed^^). → Rephrase: the card I was most pissed off by is Creeping Chill. Them easily dredging 3/4 of their deck quickly means you have to calculate your gameplan vs dredge with them starting at a functional 29 life and you at 11. That is just extremely dumb.

Now, the card didn't really make dredge more resiliant to gy hate, but it does make G1 even more ridiculously lopsided than it already was. Since Chill, it is absolutely impossible to race Dredge. They can stumble and you have a decent clock, but they'll just mill into 2-3 Chills and together with Conflagrate, they don't even need to deal combat damage to win. That's just %$#% up imo. Dredge can just mill over 2-3 Chills, cast 2 Conflagrates off Loam and be a burn deck. Which is also why I abandoned Anger of the Gods against dredge a looong time ago. It's just very irrelevant because given 2-3 turns, they'll just burn you out while you have to deal 26-29 damage to win.

I think it's not a completely unreasonable assumption that the power creep of midrange/control in the recent years is in part due to theh power creep of aggro/big mana in the years before that. Burn is a completely deck than it was, say, 2 years ago. And I'm ignoring Lurrus here. Burn got Skewer the Critics, Sunbaked Canyon, Fiery Islet [/card], its power level shot up by a huge amount in a short time. That is 10 new mainboard cards for a deck that has an extremely high bar for including new cards.

Burn is actually a ridiculous deck these days. No wonder it and PDW have made up over 10% of the meta forever now, no matter what other broken %$#% goes on in the format. Killing by t3/t4 every single game, and then also winning the attrition game with draw-lands/Light up the Stage. I remember Burn used to be a top deck off and on, because it was consistent but if you stabilized, you could win. Now, if you stabilize they'll just functionally draw 2 a few turns by cycling lands and its gg. That's hugely annoying imo. Being like "ok I'm turning the corner... if it wasnt for their 2 draw lands that probably represent lethal damage".

The draw lands were a really dumb addition to the format as well imo. They almost exclusively push hyper-aggro decks because these don't care about their life total, and, of course, decks that run the best planeswalker ever printed by a mile, Wrenn.

If people talk about Bauble+Lurrus being an annoying interaction that is repetitive and unfun to play against, that is true, but it's almost as retarded playing against active Wrenn+Petland.
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

I agree with TheBoulderer that the card that pushed Dredge over the top was Creeping Chill because of the reasons mentioned.

The more I think about Lurrus the more broken he becomes. Like even without the companion mechanic he would see tons of play. Compared to Renegade Rallier and Ramunap Exavator it becomes clear how overpushed he is. Its an interesting card and maybe there is a chance they only ban the companion mechanic from constructed so the card can stay legal and the others as well.
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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Week 1 metagame update is live on ModernMetrics:
https://mtgmodernmetrics.wordpress.com/ ... ko-week-1/

And on Reddit:


In summary, the format is still strategically diverse on a spreadsheet, but there are some very well defined format pillars. Lurrus is obviously one of them, with about 50% of decks using Lurrus in some capacity (even higher among the top-tier options). This has been consequences for Modern going forward and we'll need to carefully monitor the situation.
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

I don't think Modern has format pillars any more, it has metagame pillars. They change with every new set that introduces broken cards when the old pillars are replaced by new ones. This is why people including myself no longer see Modern as a strictly non-rotating format.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Hyperbolic.

Burn, Tron, Dredge, Titan, and probably Humans, are all 'pillars' that have been around for years. If you remove Humans, those decks have been part of Modern for the better part of a decade.
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
I agree with TheBoulderer that the card that pushed Dredge over the top was Creeping Chill because of the reasons mentioned.

The more I think about Lurrus the more broken he becomes. Like even without the companion mechanic he would see tons of play. Compared to Renegade Rallier and Ramunap Exavator it becomes clear how overpushed he is. Its an interesting card and maybe there is a chance they only ban the companion mechanic from constructed so the card can stay legal and the others as well.
There's many cards I compare with others, like Emry, Lurker of the Loch with Dark Confidant for example.

I currently compare Lurrus of the Dream-Den with Snapcaster Mage. Snapcaster Mage was arguably the best Modern creature for so many years. Even when Blue was doing terrible, it still had the best creature because Snapcaster Mage is just insane value. Now we have a card that does cost 1 more than Snapcaster Mage, albeit Hybrid mana, is at Sorcery speed, does bring permanents 2 or less back, but EACH turn. That is insane value. Imagine having to kill a Snapcaster Mage right away or else it accrues value EACH turn. Not to mention, it is a Companion, so it is in your hand (but can't be discarded) every ... single ... game.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Jeskai Phoenix, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
I agree with TheBoulderer that the card that pushed Dredge over the top was Creeping Chill because of the reasons mentioned.

The more I think about Lurrus the more broken he becomes. Like even without the companion mechanic he would see tons of play. Compared to Renegade Rallier and Ramunap Exavator it becomes clear how overpushed he is. Its an interesting card and maybe there is a chance they only ban the companion mechanic from constructed so the card can stay legal and the others as well.
There's many cards I compare with others, like Emry, Lurker of the Loch with Dark Confidant for example.

I currently compare Lurrus of the Dream-Den with Snapcaster Mage. Snapcaster Mage was arguably the best Modern creature for so many years. Even when Blue was doing terrible, it still had the best creature because Snapcaster Mage is just insane value. Now we have a card that does cost 1 more than Snapcaster Mage, albeit Hybrid mana, is at Sorcery speed, does bring permanents 2 or less back, but EACH turn. That is insane value. Imagine having to kill a Snapcaster Mage right away or else it accrues value EACH turn. Not to mention, it is a Companion, so it is in your hand (but can't be discarded) every ... single ... game.
You can also add in that Snapcaster Mage exiles the card it casts again. Lurrus (and Mystic Sanctuary) can loop cards over and over and over and over...

Just imagine if either Lurrus or Sanctuary added the text to their targets: "the next time this card would be put into a graveyard, exile it."

But sure, it's the old cards that are broken. :sleepy:

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

I will not allow Sanctuary to be insulted by comparison with Lurrus.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
I will not allow Sanctuary to be insulted by comparison with Lurrus.
It's more a comment on the shift to repeated abuses. Instead of only being able to abuse the repetition once, it's over and over. I mean FFS, even Underworld Breach doesn't exile the cards you Escape.

Flashback is often referred to as an extremely powerful mechanic, and it's laughably weak compared to the repeated recursion elements that exist today because it exiles after its second use. Iduno. Just kind of thinking out loud.

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Post by ThatStoryTeller » 1 year ago

"Its the old cards that are broken"
I just wanted to put an umezawa's jitte onto a bitterblossom token and attack through my opponent...But nooo we cant have that, "here, jump through these hoops and have have a free 8th card in your hand that recurs your cheap stuff, thats good in eternal formats right?."
Now I'll never get to prove the card is safe for modern aggro control decks to play because lurrus just brings it back when its answered.
/end rant :laugh:

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

I mean at this point, you just run Main deck Rest in Peace.
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
Hyperbolic.

Burn, Tron, Dredge, Titan, and probably Humans, are all 'pillars' that have been around for years. If you remove Humans, those decks have been part of Modern for the better part of a decade.
That is like saying Aggro and Bigmana are pillars of Modern. That is way to broad to define Modern because it is not exclusive to Modern. What is the definition of pillar of Modern? Are we talking about decks or cards? Must the deck or card have proven themselves over a longer period of time? Is the deck or card a fundamental part of Modern? When constructing a new deck must you take them into account? How important and what kind of metashare do they have?

To me pillar of Modern is more synonymous with the format itself. When you say Urzatron, Ancient Stirrings, Lighting Bolt everybody will link that to Modern just like Brainstorm is synonymous with Legacy. On the other side, Tarmogoyf is hardly considered a pillar of Modern any more despite being one for many years. Then we lost Mox Opal and Faithless Loothing as format defining cards because of bans. Astrolabe, Urza, Wrenn etc are the new pillars you could argue.

What Creeping Chill and Supreme Phantom have thought us is that any deck can be propelled from tier 3 to tier 1 with a single card. Some even become tier 0. Talking about pillars of Modern becomes very meaningless and hollow when every set introduces cards that shakes up the entire definition of what Modern is because it redefines what the pillars are. Therefore pillars are no longer the fundamental core cards that define the format over a longer period of time, they define a metagame.

There are some pillars that have stand the test of time like Urzatron, Titandecks, Death's Shadow and some others and therefor have become synonymous with Modern but overal its very volatile. Last week Astrolabe (Bant Snow) was a huge problem, now Lurrus completely took over. I do believe eventually the best deck will combine both cards though but its an example.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

That's the issue with loose definition.
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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
I mean at this point, you just run Main deck Rest in Peace.
My enchantment control decks often did/do. Counts as an enchantment towards sphere of safety and nykthos devotion, and suppression field, halo and rip are the only decent controlling enchantments at 2cc. Used to get a lot of free wins with Leylines, Ghostlies, RIP, Sphere etc. Some decks just can't pay 20 to attack or beat unlìfe/solemnity etc.n Legacy RIP is maindeckable thanks to Helm, of course.....

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
I mean at this point, you just run Main deck Rest in Peace.
My enchantment control decks often did/do. Counts as an enchantment towards sphere of safety and nykthos devotion, and suppression field, halo and rip are the only decent controlling enchantments at 2cc. Used to get a lot of free wins with Leylines, Ghostlies, RIP, Sphere etc. Some decks just can't pay 20 to attack or beat unlìfe/solemnity etc.n Legacy RIP is maindeckable thanks to Helm, of course.....
This deck was the bane of my existence when I played Dredge with Golgari Grave-Troll. We have a lifetime Enchantments only player at my LGS, who's played off and on. He played it at 1 GP and was 8-1 on Day 1, so he's a good player. He beat me a buuuunch with that deck. Leyline of Sanctity pregame means I don't Conflagrate and Ghostly Prison and Sphere of Safety means that Dredge literally doesn't have enough lands (12 non fetches) to pay to attack with even medium sized creature. When he gets the Greater Auramancy, then it's pretty close to the full lock (Nature's Claims have to target that first or 2 GA means I lose). I think I was something like 2-12 vs. him during those times (I played Dredge a lot because I won a lot). I'm positive that my win percentage with the deck would have been over 80% without him. :unamused: I think at this time, he only ran 2 SB Rest in Peace, so I didn't see that one often, but usually things were already looking badly by that time.

Not to mention, it's been rough at other times when I played Titanshift vs. it.
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
I mean at this point, you just run Main deck Rest in Peace.
My enchantment control decks often did/do. Counts as an enchantment towards sphere of safety and nykthos devotion, and suppression field, halo and rip are the only decent controlling enchantments at 2cc. Used to get a lot of free wins with Leylines, Ghostlies, RIP, Sphere etc. Some decks just can't pay 20 to attack or beat unlìfe/solemnity etc.n Legacy RIP is maindeckable thanks to Helm, of course.....
Yeah, I cannot speak to Legacy, but Modern, the Lurrus issue seems...odd. Simply cast RIP, cast T3feri, sit behind your idiotic 'we play Hearthstone in this house' wall, and start brainstorming Jace.

I suppose the issue there though, is that then your not playing Uro, and people dont want to give up on that level of drugs.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
I mean at this point, you just run Main deck Rest in Peace.
My enchantment control decks often did/do. Counts as an enchantment towards sphere of safety and nykthos devotion, and suppression field, halo and rip are the only decent controlling enchantments at 2cc. Used to get a lot of free wins with Leylines, Ghostlies, RIP, Sphere etc. Some decks just can't pay 20 to attack or beat unlìfe/solemnity etc.n Legacy RIP is maindeckable thanks to Helm, of course.....
Yeah, I cannot speak to Legacy, but Modern, the Lurrus issue seems...odd. Simply cast RIP, cast T3feri, sit behind your idiotic 'we play Hearthstone in this house' wall, and start brainstorming Jace.

I suppose the issue there though, is that then your not playing Uro, and people dont want to give up on that level of drugs.
Why sacrifice Uro for RIP, when you can just play Leyline of the Void? Can even be cast in a Bant deck thanks to Astrolabe.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

I suppose that would be right.
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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

I actually have two versions- Enduring ideal UW (wincon- casting ideal into all sorts of stupid stuff), and RW (Wincon- vs cast Obliterate- you always get there if the game lasts 5 mins or more- winning with Luminarch ascension and Heliod etc.). All time favourite memories- playing a v good player (Top 8'd a GP last year IIRC), 1-0 up as he was late- he drops a magus of the moon with no idea what my deck does- allowing me to hardcast Form of the Dragon six turns later- in the UW version- a card I have zero red sources for- for the Unlife/Form /with Auramancies (shroud enchantments) down lock. Since it was already pay extra to attack when he cast it I felt safe, but.....ouch. Other memory- playing a twin player with active combo who is biding time building up to a huge hand of counters and control stuff- he has about 10 cards left and is looking for another echoing truth - Cast Obliterate- he has to read it twice, I am left with a board of 20 + permanents, including heliod who has shroud and suppression fields- he has no land left to fetch..... Great deck had an incredibly low win rate vs Tron decks, but always beat aggro and often midrange with a good match vs a lot of famous cheating decks like Dredge, Phoenix etc. Happy times.
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Post by TheBoulderer » 1 year ago

My personal %$#% list now very firmly. includes Lurrus, Uro, Astrolabe and Veil of Summer. Notable %$#%-list omissions are Mystic Sanctuary (because imo it suffers from the sins of, Uro, Urza and Astrolabe) and T3feri, because as a blue-based control deck I should be hit hard by it but It seldom really borhers me.

The travesty with Lurrus is that it will surely divert attention from the numerous problems modern was facing before it, so unless WotC gets really brave, it might well push some much-needed changes back at leadt one BR announcement.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago


My enchantment control decks often did/do. Counts as an enchantment towards sphere of safety and nykthos devotion, and suppression field, halo and rip are the only decent controlling enchantments at 2cc. Used to get a lot of free wins with Leylines, Ghostlies, RIP, Sphere etc. Some decks just can't pay 20 to attack or beat unlìfe/solemnity etc.n Legacy RIP is maindeckable thanks to Helm, of course.....
Yeah, I cannot speak to Legacy, but Modern, the Lurrus issue seems...odd. Simply cast RIP, cast T3feri, sit behind your idiotic 'we play Hearthstone in this house' wall, and start brainstorming Jace.

I suppose the issue there though, is that then your not playing Uro, and people dont want to give up on that level of drugs.
Why sacrifice Uro for RIP, when you can just play Leyline of the Void? Can even be cast in a Bant deck thanks to Astrolabe.
This is what I was thinking. If you're not doing it with Uro, you're probably doing it wrong. (I even have 1 Uro in my Amulet SB)
drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
I actually have two versions- Enduring ideal UW (wincon- casting ideal into all sorts of stupid stuff), and RW (Wincon- vs cast Obliterate- you always get there if the game lasts 5 mins or more- winning with Luminarch ascension and Heliod etc.). All time favourite memories- playing a v good player (Top 8'd a GP last year IIRC), 1-0 up as he was late- he drops a magus of the moon with no idea what my deck does- allowing me to hardcast Form of the Dragon six turns later- in the UW version- a card I have zero red sources for- for the Unlife/Form /with Auramancies (shroud enchantments) down lock. Since it was already pay extra to attack when he cast it I felt safe, but.....ouch. Other memory- playing a twin player with active combo who is biding time building up to a huge hand of counters and control stuff- he has about 10 cards left and is looking for another echoing truth - Cast Obliterate- he has to read it twice, I am left with a board of 20 + permanents, including heliod who has shroud and suppression fields- he has no land left to fetch..... Great deck had an incredibly low win rate vs Tron decks, but always beat aggro and often midrange with a good match vs a lot of famous cheating decks like Dredge, Phoenix etc. Happy times.
This really made my day. Obliterate. Gotta love it (unless it's played against me, then I'm sad)

This guy's most recent version, which was over a year ago was RW with Form of the Dragon, Enduring Ideal, Solemnity/Unlife, and then the rest of the normal cast. I think he ran 2 MB Blood Moons in this version and 1 SB. Before that, he was doing Naya with Utopia Sprawl and Arbor Elf.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Jeskai Phoenix, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Obliterate made everyone who saw it wince. It was the only way to beat Ux decks with Cryptic etc for certain- obviously you have to live to get there, and it was also sometimes effective vs Tron when combined with Blood Moon and the like- they often durdle to the win casting 7/8 mana things off 8 lands....if you could race them. It is surprisingly Legal, like Karma and other oddities that got to 8th- and there is precisely one deck in the format that does not care about it. Indeed Heliod survives it even.............

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Post by TheBoulderer » 1 year ago

I just had an experience that clarified for me wether Lurrus is "an acceptable" evil if it means getting a somewhat diverse metagame in return.

I was on Grixis Control, and I faced the rare mirror. I was'nt on Lurrus, he was. And Grixis mirros usually go like this: endlessly trading small 1-for-1s, dancing around each others permission until somebody gets an opening. And since I've been on the deck for 5 years straight now, and most opponents on it haven't been, if all things are roughly equal, I usually win those matches.

But in that game, my opp just carelessly jammed Lurrus on t3 with Bauble in the bin, as he should. I had a Bolt for Lurrus, but obviously the damage is already done. Opp cast Lurrus as his 8th starting card, got a bauble out of it and drew my Bolt, which makes it a completely free 3-for-0: the 8th card, my Bolt and the free Bauble.

It didn't immediately lose me the game, but it put me behind by, yea, one resolved Ancestral Vision, but without me having had any opportunity to interact with it. A few turns later, he was able to force through a Kroxa because he had 6 cards in hand and I had 3. The game had gone completely evenly, except for Lurrus.

At which point I told him I couldn't be bothered to try and grind with Lurrus and abandoned the game. I wasn't really salty, I just came to the realisation that I'm not interested spend my time trying to beat a card like Lurrus.

The takeaway from this is that even if Lurrus decks don't start homogenizing around a very few top choices, the Lurrus-Bauble package is a huge problem completely irrespective of the deck diversity it seems to create. Because decks that jam Lurrus+Bauble aren't really diverse. It's just different shells being pushed by the same card, resulting in the same play patterns over and over and over again. Every deck that runs Lurrus will cast it 95% of games, which is probably about the equivalent of every Lurrus deck running 8 copies mainboard if we look at how often we see it. It's as if these decks run so many copies that they see Lurrus by turn 3 every single game. Except the 8 copies are replaced by the companion mechanic, which also adds an untouchable 8th card to their starting hand.

I get where the arguments that Lurrus helps otherwise obscure decks be relevant comes from. I love seeing Grixis Delver be a viable strategy. But imo, this "viability" is ultimately fake as long as it is built on the back of Lurrus+Bauble, or more precisely, Lurrus Lurrus Lurrus.

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Post by Bearscape » 1 year ago

the paper price of Lurrus is already going crazy; 15 bucks on mkm. I kind of hope they do the right thing and ban Lurrus before the paper release of the card; putting the inherent problems of Companions aside, Lurrus will definitely need to go in some of the eternal formats.

Also, although it is currently buried under Lurrus decks, from my playtesting Yorion in the already very powerful Bant snow shells is disgusting. Playing 80 cards really isn't an issue and even makes you able to run the entire playset of mystic Sanctuary again. Casting Yorion and blinking some snakes and astrolabes or resetting a downticked Teferi is downright disgusting. Omen of the Sea also becomes an absurd card.

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