[Official] Modern Prices Discussion

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Ed06288
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Post by Ed06288 » 1 year ago

I wouldn't mind another zen fetches reprint. Is it too soon to ask for that? lol

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

A reprint of Zendikar fetches would be nice. It would also be an interesting experiment to see "if Wizards cares"/wants to still make money off of Modern. This is a wonderful idea.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by VikingV » 1 year ago

I just noticed Surgical Extraction has lost over half its value

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Post by Albegas » 1 year ago

So with the recent Mox ban, I plan on building up Whirza cards. Are prices about as low as they're going to get, or should I wait a little longer?

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Albegas wrote:
1 year ago
So with the recent Mox ban, I plan on building up Whirza cards. Are prices about as low as they're going to get, or should I wait a little longer?
I was thinking this exact same thing, until the thought creeped in the back of my mind that Urza is still too good, and may get the Hogaak treatment of multiple bans down the road. Hard to justify the costs overall, but I guess it depends on how many pieces one needs. But Urza alone is still at least $130 for a playset, and many of the artifacts needed are pretty costly if you didn't get them long ago.

Urza's price is eerily steady and not falling at all in paper, despite taking a sharp nose dive online. What does this mean for the paper cost? People are just holding onto them and either continuing to play or just... not selling them. I think he only really has two trajectories: either he continues a steady hold with a possible slow, slow decline, OR he continues to be extremely good and sees sharp rises once people catch on.

So either way, it seems now is the best time to buy. If you wait and he stays steady, you lose the opportunity to play (see: story of my life), and are likely only going to pay a little more than it's slow decrease. If you wait and he sees a sharp spike, well... it's a lot more then.

Dunno, just some ramblings.

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Post by Mapccu » 1 year ago

So I don't really see much discussion about selling out here, almost always buying in, even when I followed on mtgsalvation. Anyway I figured this may be fruitful for someone so I wanted to share.

I've recently decided to sell out of a significant chunk of my modern staples and trim back to 2-4 decks (various elves decks, UW vial spirits, UW control variants, and a few fun decks). Below are a few cards with prices and rough estimate of how/when I bought in and what I'm getting at liquidation to a store. I could sell to individuals via Facebook or eBay but I want to move everything sooner than later. It's a time factor. Anywho...


Misty rainforest - I bought in at MM release weekend at 28-32 a piece on eBay. I'm selling the play set at 32 a piece for essentially break even.

Verdant catacombs - I bought at MM release weekend for 120 for a play set. I'm selling at 32 a piece for minimal profit.

Scalding tarn - I moved in on two copies at 34 and one at 36 at MM release. Far red UR was not doing well in modern during this time and it was before Phoenix took off. Anyway, selling out at 40 so okay profit.

Mox amber - bought in at 8, selling out at 10. Aside from being kinda insane in some commander decks, I've heard Whirza is taking a hard look at this for combo turns. Profiting a bit here.

Valakut - I bought in just before the scapeshift reprint at 16 for the play set and then the scapeshift printing made these shoot up a bit. Selling out at 24 for the play set.

Noble hierarchs - I bought in right after eternal masters was announced at ~35ish a piece? I sold them for 40 a pop a few weeks ago before they started to dip with the rest of the format.

Metallic mimic - I soaked up as many as I could at 2.50 via trade fodder and I'm moving what's left at 4 a piece. 2 cmc lord for any tribe with no color restrictions was bound to move even if it's a kitchen table card. I tracked adapative automoton for reference.

Anyway, several of these cards I tracked over years. Every time a new set would drop I'd scour the set, make a list of what I needed to fill out my collection and I'd rank what was left. I generally spent ~100-200 per set release and moved heavily on workhorse common/uncommon like removal, anything that tutored, and to fill out what was left for any t2-3 decks.

I've done pretty well at my LGS and the pricer singles I'm moving I usually bought with store credit. Because of that I'm not including them here.

Anyway, now isn't the best time to sell out as the market has been dealing with the impact of arena (which hit mtgo market substantially), the change in tournament structure, introduction to pioneer, and the absolute dumpster fire the ban environment has been. Even with these negative forces I'm still able to break even or minimalist my losses. I say that as a word of encouragement to those buying. If you're not wrapping up a deck for a tournament track reprint history and focus on what you want for collectibles/tournaments. I've found the first week of set release is the best tone to buy anything under $5 USD (there is very little risk that the price moves much) and I avoid anything over $20. If a card is playable it'll retain those silly price tags. If it's a flash in the pan (the first sliver) then waiting on those has been great for me.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

strange how mox opal is 60 dollars at some online stores. They think people will still buy it at that price? :pensive:
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Post by Yawgmoth » 1 year ago

The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
strange how mox opal is 60 dollars at some online stores. They think people will still buy it at that price? :pensive:
Price memory is a stupidly powerful thing. Demand from Legacy and Commander doesn't warrant the $60 price tag but I don't think it will drop to $20 (where it should be, see Mox Amber) for a long time.

People have very little motivation to drop the price because there is no external pressure. They either drop the price and lose a bunch of money or hold it high and wait a year until it is sold at the current price. In a healthy market there would be competition and suppliers would be incentivized to move product. Because of the scarcity of the product there is very little pressure on them to drop their price.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

[mention]Yawgmoth[/mention]

agreed on what you said. Price memory is strong.

it probably needs a reprint or two to bring down Opal price. Reprints is one factor that eventually crumbled away tarmogoyf high price.
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

after some thought whether to buy Heliod Sun Crowned or not.... decided to just use the money to instead buy Archangel of Thune, to combo with my feeders. Yeah, she's slower. But Angel-Feeder Combo has been around a long long time... so it;s very safe from ban. If I buy two Heliod, and he "slowly" get banned in formats like Oko... not counting shipping and post office fees, that's almost 40 dollars down the drain.
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
after some thought whether to buy Heliod Sun Crowned or not.... decided to just use the money to instead buy Archangel of Thune, to combo with my feeders. Yeah, she's slower. But Angel-Feeder Combo has been around a long long time... so it;s very safe from ban. If I buy two Heliod, and he "slowly" get banned in formats like Oko... not counting shipping and post office fees, that's almost 40 dollars down the drain.
I can say with nearly 100% certainty that Heliod will NOT get banned in Modern. As for Pioneer, that one is still up in the air (how good the deck is).
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

maybe Heliod next time, when I have spare cash next month. Already paid scg with paypal today for the angel and some other cards.

Recent banning of Oko probably made me a little too wary... about buying powerful cards that look like wotc is only filling up their pockets from pack sales, and once their pockets are filled it's time to ban hammer. Not saying Heliod is on the power level of Oko of course... I'm only being careful about this new 3 cmc god.
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Post by motleyslayer » 1 year ago

can people see Zendi fetches dropping with pioneer being a format now?

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

It is all ready low in my opinion and lost enough of his worth, do you think people will give it as a present for free? I think if you believe, it should be less as it is now, you don't will get any of them. Bevore I sell it at 10 I will keep it and play it myself or let it in my binder like rest of the people too. It doesn't drop, only if a reprint comes in the future like any other card too

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Zendi fetches...there is chatter of reprints, people are loathe to sell lower, and loathe to buy for fear of non standard reprints. Pioneer has tanked or eaten a chunk of cards like Thalia, Spellskite, Surgical, Snappy, Lilly, but lands are different from anything else. I would expect no lowering on these. I do expect a non standard mon commander reprint and I a hundred percent expect Modern to lose players to Legacy and Pioneer. In two years people won't be playing Modern unless it comes to Arena.
Even with their focus away from Spikes and away from Modern, fetches still have desirability for EDH and Legacy, the former being responsible for most of the price, and the scarcity is high, so they won't go much lower. Price memory is strongest on lands. I expect some kind of limited reprint of them by the end of the year.

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

No chance for legacy man, it's to expensive and it will stay same and don't be so enthusiastic about Pioneer, at this moment people complain more there about inverter, heliod, breach combos everywhere... while they enjoy modern. Yes price will not rice again so much, but the future like you believed it some years away and not only 2

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

added a heliod, sun crowned to my scg cart. I hope this guy does not get banned..
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

Right now stoneforge mystic is something between 25-30 dollars each. Sold all | have when it was around 60 dollars each during the unban hype. Is it now the time to rebuy, or do people see sfm dropping further in price?
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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

I see much Mtg dropping due to the virus. The need.to sell cards might put some big cards into the market as people who need to liquidate their prize edh cards. Standard demand especially will drop as paper events cease. For many it might be soon worth picking up Standard cards that have eternal applications.

SFM I think might lose a little more, but the floor on it will be close. It is used in EDH, Modern and Legacy.

Modern is going to die anyway, it is delusional to see it surviving without greater support. When it was born, two years later Extended bit the bullet, it will go the same way unless its community start to push it. However, is loathed by a large percentage of its player base at any one time, it has an amorphous identity. It can't be fixed with bans, it lacks the tools to balance it thanks to years of threats out weighing answers. Unbans won't help either, for every person who wants one, someone does not. If they unbanned Twin or Pod I would quit the format forever, I have heard so much whining about those cards I don't want the complainers to win, aside from the fact that those cards should be banned anyway. There is no other format where that is true, because no other format is as detested by its players, who in turn hate the new over powered decks without answers and then hate the fact that those get banned, and then hate the fact that the bans are inconsistent. If a card is modern only, drop it. Fortunately most modern powerhouses are edh able, which gives them a high floor.

The Legacy community adores its format, and the Mtgo events give people an outlet to innovate and work out correct bans for the broken stuff, whilst still throwing old cardboard around in person. The RL is pretty safe as long as the cards have uses in paper. That said a fair few beasts like Moat, Eureka, Chains will take a further haircut as they are overpriced compared to their use.

I can't see many people unloading Lotus or Mox because they need cash these next few months, unless they have a solitary copy picked up ages ago or something. Vintage collectors have to be rich, although there will always be exceptions, especially those who started young in the 90s and got in early. You might find a few high end cube or edh cards from AN, Antitquities, Legends floating about as people need cash.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
There is no other format where that is true, because no other format is as detested by its players, who in turn hate the new over powered decks without answers and then hate the fact that those get banned, and then hate the fact that the bans are inconsistent.
lol, sad if it were not true, or sad because its true? :p
UR Control UR

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

Just ordered some more low priced fun stuff from scg. A lot of prices are going down. :)

next on my cart are pieces for an Aria of Flame deck.
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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Legacy prices holding so far. They are the gold standard for security and liquidity in duals. I reckon there might be a cooling in big four horsemen set cards like chains, moat, etc. They have been sliding a while as their use - rarity coefficient really does not justify their price of the last two years, they were sliding pre virus.

Modern only cards gave cooled a lit post Pioneer and won't take much more of a haircut as they are nearly bald as it is.

Price memory extreme cases will be shaken these next few months as stubborn people list their Mox Opals at stupid prices. You lost money guys, accept it, stop being arrogant arses and sell at the demand price people will pay. Those cards will never, ever move, the card is a 25 dollar card, period, end of. It has little value if you can't play it outside of edh, and you all have four. There are a few such examples and people's desperation may factor, sadly, to enable a price correction on such cards.

Standard sales are going to hurt, big time. With cfb etc. shutting doors due to virus, the mkm type places may do a brisk trade, but there is a window on standard, and the virus may, in fact will outlast it.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

Breeding Pool at a good price right now. Getting tempted to sell my copies. However, no one would get out of their houses, and my mom would get angry if I met with strangers, because of covid. So can't sell...

On other things. I took this chance to get some Glimmervoid from online sellers, they're at their lowest price right now with the demise of affinity, and not being used in other modern decks.
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

Prices of some cards are even lower now. Sadly, cannot order anymore... the post office is closed, I can't get the cards. Even now, I have two orders trapped there.
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

Surprised at how much Arid Mesa and Marsh Flats dropped in price. They're only in the 20 dollar range now. I think this is the time to get them, for those who want.

Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn also dropped a bit, but they're still expensive.
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