[mtgnexus] Random Card of the Day - North Star

[Sinis]

Monday, May 25th, 2020; Jace, Cunning Castaway

I've never seen it played, but I hear it gives you an infinite number of phantasmal bears and Jaces with Doubling Season.

[RxPhantom]

This card sucks. See you tomorrow.

[TheAmericanSpirit]

I'm not a huge fan of effects that require a lot of hand-holding to be useful. If you've got doubling season out already, O.G. Tamiyo or Jace, Architect are where you want to be. This card has a really low floor and a popcorn ceiling IMHO, and so for that, back to the bin with thee!

[3drinks]

Tuesday, May 26th, 2020; Barrier Breach

I'm beginning to think I vastly over value cycling because this looks far more playable to me than it really is. Thoughts?

[Dragoon]

Well, as for any cycling card, it's never really a dead card. But it still costs you a deck slot. Is it worth it? I don't know. The effect is certainly interesting, being able to get rid of Gods and the likes. I guess it's mostly a meta call though.

[Serenade]

If I played Back to Nature I would certainly test out swapping this card for it.

[Mookie]

I'm not sure how you'd post before me if I'm the one spinning the wheel of random 👀 Mookie

Don't crush my dreeeeeeams! More seriously, I see you update the threat title occasionally before posting the new card. Unfortunately, the window of opportunity is too short to actually post any good analysis. >.>

As for Barrier Breach.... it certainly seems like an upgrade over Back to Nature in that you can cycle it when it's dead. However, I'd favor just running a card I don't expect to be dead in the first place. Unless you're in a meta where you expect to be hitting multiple targets consistently, I'd default to the more flexible Wilt (or, more realistically, something more synergistic like Reclamation Sage or Sundering Growth).

Still, in the narrow situations it's good, it is a 3 mana 3-for-1, which is pretty strong. Enchantments tend to also be pretty good to get off the board. Fun with Enchanted Evening as a discount Violent Ultimatum.

[3drinks]

I'm not sure how you'd post before me if I'm the one spinning the wheel of random 👀 Mookie

Don't crush my dreeeeeeams! More seriously, I see you update the threat title occasionally before posting the new card. Unfortunately, the window of opportunity is too short to actually post any good analysis. >.>

I could always go back to posting the card, and then updating the thread title. Buuutttt you're always one of the most in-depth analysis writers, don't give that up.

As for Barrier Breach.... it certainly seems like an upgrade over Back to Nature in that you can cycle it when it's dead. However, I'd favor just running a card I don't expect to be dead in the first place. Unless you're in a meta where you expect to be hitting multiple targets consistently, I'd default to the more flexible Wilt (or, more realistically, something more synergistic like Reclamation Sage or Sundering Growth).

Still, in the narrow situations it's good, it is a 3 mana 3-for-1, which is pretty strong. Enchantments tend to also be pretty good to get off the board. Fun with Enchanted Evening as a discount Violent Ultimatum.

Is it really a discount if you're playing a five mana spell ahead of it? Moreover is it really a better cost at 5G{W/U}{W/U} + two cards over BBRRRGG?

[Hawk]

I did analysis that I'll post someday, but looking at the "average decklists" of the top 25 or so most popular commanders I found that Enchantments are the second least-played Permanent type (more than 'walkers, but significantly less than Artifacts and way less than creatures). The average number of enchantments in a Commander deck is 8 and the maximum is 17 (in Alela). There are no decks in the top 25 that had zero enchantments, but many that had less than five.

So, a card like Barrier Breach is going to get cycled a lot in the average EDH game - it is conceivable you never see a target, or see only one target all game. Reasonably speaking, it'll actually be pretty rare that this even hits 3 targets. My analysis definitely reinforced for me that I'd never run Demystify or Erase in EDH, and even this and Back to Nature and Aura Mutation that have insane high-roll potential are really really questionable.

For insurance, assuming you aren't happy with all your "destroy target permanent" effects (like Beast Within or Song of the Dryads), you still more than double your hit rate by running stuff like Return to Nature or Wilt or Reclamation Sage.

[ZenN]

I did analysis that I'll post someday, but looking at the "average decklists" of the top 25 or so most popular commanders I found that Enchantments are the second least-played Permanent type (more than 'walkers, but significantly less than Artifacts and way less than creatures). The average number of enchantments in a Commander deck is 8 and the maximum is 17 (in Alela). There are no decks in the top 25 that had zero enchantments, but many that had less than five.

Is this accounting for permanents that are both Artifact and Enchantment (Whip of Erebos and the rest of its cycle), and for permanents that are both Creature and Enchantment?

[Sinis]

Tuesday, May 26th, 2020; Barrier Breach

I'm beginning to think I vastly over value cycling because this looks far more playable to me than it really is. Thoughts?

I'm of the opinion that cycling doesn't make a card much more playable. Cycling frequently results in lost parity, so it's only really useful on cards that are narrow (rather than something like Cloud of Faeries), or you're trying to set up a reanimate (i.e. Archfiend of Ifnir) or you're trying to trigger an off-turn miracle.

All that said, this card can be such a mad dunk against an enchantress deck -- while having an out as a cycler -- that might be worth the inclusion.

[Hawk]

I did analysis that I'll post someday, but looking at the "average decklists" of the top 25 or so most popular commanders I found that Enchantments are the second least-played Permanent type (more than 'walkers, but significantly less than Artifacts and way less than creatures). The average number of enchantments in a Commander deck is 8 and the maximum is 17 (in Alela). There are no decks in the top 25 that had zero enchantments, but many that had less than five.

Is this accounting for permanents that are both Artifact and Enchantment (Whip of Erebos and the rest of its cycle), and for permanents that are both Creature and Enchantment?

Yes, - Dryad of the Ilysian Grove counted as a creature and as an enchantment. For the record, I looked at 2600 cards (26 decks), but across those decks my columns add up to 2659 - there actually aren't a ton of "double type" permaments in the average deck (none of the top 26 run Whip, for instance, and I believe only one had Bident from that cycle), and by far Dryad, Solemn Simulacrum, and Baleful Strix were the most common. But I did count by hand to account for these dual-typed permanents.

Probably time for the thread here soon

[pokken]

I don't see myself ever running something that just kills enchantments again.

edit: the exception being if they print another enchanted evening effect and I can think of a fun deck around screwing with everything being enchantments, maybe

[ZenN]

Versatility is often king when it comes to this format. The huge amount of unknown for the decks you play against, and the lack of a 2/3 with sideboarding structure, means that you need to be "ready for anything", so the more cards you can play that do more things the better off you are, usually.

Only hitting enchantments, even if it's 3 of them and it exiles, is just way too narrow. Would totally consider it in a theoretical sideboard for when there's an Enchantresses or god-heavy deck at the table though, if that was a thing.

[FoxOfWar]

People may not play a lot of enchantments, but I've found that a lot of enchantments people DO play are cards they're really fond of and will try to get back. Exiling stuff is good in our world of nigh-permanent recursion. Cycling tides it over nicely in the occasional case it's useless.

Pretty playable card if you ask me.

[3drinks]

Wednesday, May 27th, 2020; Nascent Metamorph

Might be a bit too early to give this an honest look, right?

[Mookie]

I don't think Nascent Metamorph is online yet, and doing anything in paper is weird at the moment (assuming you can even get the card). So, I suspect most of the discussion will be speculation.

That said, I have pretty low expectations for it. One reason is the recurring theme of 'the cards in my opponents' decks are less likely to synergize with my own deck', which means that cloning random things from an opponent's deck is often going to be underwhelming. However, a much more significant reason is that a tiny percentage of creatures in the format are run for their combat prowess - cards like Sakura-Tribe Elder and Eternal Witness are run for their ETB trigger, which you don't get from the Metamorph. This means that most creatures you get are going to be effectively small, vanilla creatures. Looking at the top 100 creatures list on EDHREC, it looks to me like around 24 are good hits for this (classified as 5+ power), but a huge percentage of those are in the command zone and not actual hits.

Looking even further, suppose you do hit a fatty. A lot of the creatures that are expected to get into the red zone have other triggers that you'll be missing out on - Sun Titan, Aurelia, the Warleader, and Etali, Primal Storm are all examples of cards with useful combat triggers you'll be missing out on. And that's without mentioning the biggest beaters in the format, the Eldrazi titans. It's possible to hit something sweet like Blightsteel Colossus, but those cards are relatively rare.

I vaguely recall some thought experiments about how big a vanilla creature needs to be to see play in EDH... and even if I could guarantee Metamorph were always a 6/6 for 1U, I still don't think I'd run it except in the most aggressive of decks.

[Dragoon]

I'm currently pondering about Nascent Metamorph for my "random tribal" Golos, Tireless Pilgrim deck but even there, I have a hard time getting excited over it. As @Mookie said, the fact that you have to engage in combat before knowing what it will become is a huge deterrent. At best, I can see it as a weird rattlesnake as it can also trigger on block and your opponent might not want to risk its attacker on you. I think the card would have been much more playable if the trigger resolved at the beginning of your combat step. It would not even be that good, but at least playable.

I have the same problem with Fireflux Squad which just isn't great when you can't stack the chances in your favor as you have to risk both it and the newly acquired creature in combat. I think Winota, Joiner of Forces is the best version of that type of effect printed recently.

I vaguely recall some thought experiments about how big a vanilla creature needs to be to see play in EDH... and even if I could guarantee Metamorph were always a 6/6 for 1U, I still don't think I'd run it except in the most aggressive of decks.

I'd be interested in those thought experiments, if you have a link or recall anything else about them. I ended up not including cards like Okaun, Eye of Chaos or Amplifire in my Golos deck because of that. I really wish WotC would print a random card granting evasion abilities to creatures, Illuna, Apex of Wishes is the best they've done at this stage and it's not really a great fit for Golos and its "savage casting".

[Serenade]

So once you have your King Crab out and maybe something to change colors, then this maybe becomes okay for your extremely lax but probably awesome playgroup.

(All staples probably would be banned in this group. It would be neat.)

[lyonhaert]

Just keep targeting the Gishath, Sun's Avatar or The Ur-Dragon player. :laugh:

[3drinks]

Thursday, May 28th, 2020; Decree of Pain

So, this is still bombtastic, right?

[Outcryqq]

Decree of Pain
I still jam this card sometimes and I like it.

[Mookie]

I'm a fan of Decree of Pain. It's certainly expensive to cast, but it's also going to refill your hand pretty much any time you cast it. The cycling is also surprisingly relevant as an instant-speed trick that can't be countered. It might be my second-favorite black board wipe, after Toxic Deluge (although that's partially due to the price of Damnation). I have been trying out Nightmare Unmaking, and Crux of Fate is fine... but paying a bit of extra mana to draw 10+ cards is a pretty good deal. I'd definitely run it before In Garruk's Wake or Plague Wind.

Truthfully, I generally treat it more as a giant card draw spell first, and a board wipe second. Its value does go down significantly in faster metas - 8 mana is a lot when compared to something like Ad Nauseam or Necrologia (or even just Necropotence), which can fill the hand at a much more affordable rate. But if you want a value-added card, it's still much more cost-effective than Dregs of Sorrow.

[Sinis]

Thursday, May 28th, 2020; Decree of Pain

I frequently play this card; often the draw will put you into a very superior position while stopping you from losing the game. The cycling effect is also reasonably costed (considering you still get one card), and can be leveraged at Instant speed.

It's definitely great for the environments I play in, and it's frequently in my draw/ramp heavy lists.

[ZenN]

Decree of Pain used to see a lot more play than it does not. It's definitely a big play, but 8 is just so much mana. I've played it in decks before, and it's possible I'll play it again at some point, but it would have to be in some sort of ramp heavy black deck that wants to wrath often, and is actively okay with using 8 mana at sorcery speed to wipe the board and draw some cards. If you don't have like 10+ mana, doing so is probably leaving yourself exposed, and it could really bite you in the ass.