2XM: Toppers evaluation
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:05 am
Hey there, it's your friendly mod SquirrelToken, and today I'd like to take a look at the box toppers of Double Masters (except we're going to look at the foil VIP pack versions - keep that in mind when I refer to "toppers"). We've got 39/40 spoiled at this point (although a couple of the Swords are merely strong speculation), so I thought that I'd run down the list and see what the winners and losers are probably going to be. I tend to think long-term, so some of my winner picks may not be $50 (break-even) at set release. We have a lot of cards to look at, so let's get started.
333 Karn Liberated - Winner. Karn already has an UMA box topper with Jason Chan's iconic art, and the Mark Tedin art may not appeal to all players, but this will still be a solid open.
334 Jace the Mind Sculptor - Winner. This Jace may not catch up with the ultra-rare War of the Spark Mythic Edition, but this is definitely a gorgeous printing of ... Jason Chan's iconic art. Huh.
335 Avacyn, Angel of Hope - Winner. Avacyn already has a judge foil, but she's also got a ton of casual appeal as well as appealing to non-MTG-playing Angel collectors. Personally, I would've preferred to have seen Jason Chan's ... wait, really? Yes. I swear, I'm not sponsored by Massive Black. I just really like Jason's art.
336 Council's Judgment - Loser. Well, they can't all be winners. It's a niche Legacy and EDH playable, but not really a 4-of anywhere.
337 Stoneforge Mystic - Winner. Eventually. I predict a slower start to this card, but this will definitely be the best version of this multi-format all-star. Even if the 2016 judge foil ever gets released, it won't move the needle too much because it looks almost exactly like the GP foil.
338 Brainstorm - Winner. But not as winning as you want it to be. The old school Masques pack foil is probably rarer, and IMO it's a beautiful card that screams "old school". I don't see this threatening that printing, but it may take second place away from the FNM foil.
339 Cyclonic Rift - Winner. Absolutely every blue EDH deck needs this card, and this is the best version (except for a one-of that Chris Rahn drew squirrels on for me, but I digress).
340 Force of Will - Loser. You have to pay life AND discard a card? Ugh. What does this card even do? So much text. (Obviously I'm kidding. This will be the chase card.)
341 Phyrexian Metamorph - Loser. Narrow EDH utility means that only some decks want it, so the demand just won't be there.
342 Dark Confidant - Winner. Not going to touch the judge foil, but it will be a solid second place.
343 Fatal Push - Loser. Big loser. Look, it's clever how the topper art is the sequel to the pack art. I like that. But it's not 2018 anymore. Who's paying more than $2 for a Fatal Push? FNM foils are under $10 - significantly under $10.
344 Thoughtseize - Winner. The Amonkhet Invocations are pretty polarizing, and despite being the chase Invocation from Hour of Devastation, Cashseize hasn't really moved from its price from 3 years ago. This printing will allow people to pick a version that is both showy and legible.
345 Loser. This card hasn't been spoiled yet, but I don't have a good feeling about it. Toxic Deluge - Winner. Looks like I spoke too soon in calling this unknown a loser. This is up there with Cyclonic Rift as the best version of a popular EDH card, except it ALSO sees play in Legacy. This card will be hot, and I apologize to Toxic Deluge for calling it a loser without waiting for it to be spoiled.
346 Blood Moon - Winner. I think. This one's tough. It's already got an Invocation that's dropped in price a bit, but I feel like Blood Moon people have a strong identity and want "their" version, so there's room for this one to take off.
347 Goblin Guide - Loser. Nobody who plays Red Deck Wins is looking to pay more - in mana or money - than they have to.
348 Sneak Attack - Loser. The judge foil will stay on top.
349 Crop Rotation - Loser. The topper can't compete with the Urza's Legacy foil.
350 Doubling Season - Winner. I love this card. And so do you.
351 Exploration - Winner, probably. Another EDH card, but definitely the best version this time. Not as winning as Cyclonic Rift, but still winning.
352 Noble Hierarch - Winner. Again, not going to touch the judge promo, though. We've now got how many premium versions of the best Green creature ever? Judge foil, UMA topper foil, RPTQ foil, and now this one. Still a winner.
353 Atraxa, Praetors' Voice - Winner. I look forward to upgrading my Superfriends deck, and making my less-super friends want to punch me.
354 Kaalia of the Vast - Winner, I think? Probably barely. Scott Fischer art saves this one. Is Kaalia still popular? I don't think that the play demand can really save this.
355 Meddling Mage - Loser. OG pack foil wins this one.
356 Batterskull - Loser. Singleton tutor target in Modern or star EDH equipment, again it's the kind of card where people buy maybe one, not "I need four!"
357 Blightsteel Colossus - Winner. But not as much as expected.
358 Chrome Mox - Winner. Popular card, and if it ever gets unbanned in Modern it will go through the ROOF.
359 Expedition Map - Loser. Goes in one Modern deck and some EDH decks. Not enough demand.
360 Lightning Greaves - Loser. Won't be able to compete with the Invention.
361 Mana Crypt - Winner. This card could be cut almost in half and probably be worth the pack.
362 Mox Opal - Loser. Sorry Mox, but the Modern ban really hurt you.
363 Sword of Body and Mind - Loser. Not a great sword, and not the best printing.
364 Sword of Feast and Famine - Winner. A good sword, even though it's not the best printing.
365 Sword of Fire and Ice - Winner. A good sword, even though it's not the best printing.
366 Sword of Light and Shadow - Loser. Not a great sword, and not the best printing.
367 Sword of War and Peace - Loser. Not a great sword, and not the best printing.
368 Wurmcoil Engine - Loser. Invention will be better.
369 Academy Ruins - Loser. Best version and I personally want one, but that's not enough to push it up to a winner.
370 Urza's Mine - Loser. Expedition Map is basically another Tron piece. These four pieces will all trend together.
371 Urza's Power Plant - Loser. Expedition Map is basically another Tron piece. These four pieces will all trend together.
372 Urza's Tower - Loser. Expedition Map is basically another Tron piece. These four pieces will all trend together.
Anyone have any comments? Let me know. I'm sure that I'll be incorrect about at least a few of these, but as a reminder there NEED to be losers. The mean value of a foil topper will start at $50 because they're two for $100 (eventually they'll have room to move away from that as VIP boosters go out of print, but as long as they're available at $100/pop, that's where the foil topper values will start). So for every Mana Crypt that's worth a lot, there needs to be a Fatal Push that's just a flop.
333 Karn Liberated - Winner. Karn already has an UMA box topper with Jason Chan's iconic art, and the Mark Tedin art may not appeal to all players, but this will still be a solid open.
334 Jace the Mind Sculptor - Winner. This Jace may not catch up with the ultra-rare War of the Spark Mythic Edition, but this is definitely a gorgeous printing of ... Jason Chan's iconic art. Huh.
335 Avacyn, Angel of Hope - Winner. Avacyn already has a judge foil, but she's also got a ton of casual appeal as well as appealing to non-MTG-playing Angel collectors. Personally, I would've preferred to have seen Jason Chan's ... wait, really? Yes. I swear, I'm not sponsored by Massive Black. I just really like Jason's art.
336 Council's Judgment - Loser. Well, they can't all be winners. It's a niche Legacy and EDH playable, but not really a 4-of anywhere.
337 Stoneforge Mystic - Winner. Eventually. I predict a slower start to this card, but this will definitely be the best version of this multi-format all-star. Even if the 2016 judge foil ever gets released, it won't move the needle too much because it looks almost exactly like the GP foil.
338 Brainstorm - Winner. But not as winning as you want it to be. The old school Masques pack foil is probably rarer, and IMO it's a beautiful card that screams "old school". I don't see this threatening that printing, but it may take second place away from the FNM foil.
339 Cyclonic Rift - Winner. Absolutely every blue EDH deck needs this card, and this is the best version (except for a one-of that Chris Rahn drew squirrels on for me, but I digress).
340 Force of Will - Loser. You have to pay life AND discard a card? Ugh. What does this card even do? So much text. (Obviously I'm kidding. This will be the chase card.)
341 Phyrexian Metamorph - Loser. Narrow EDH utility means that only some decks want it, so the demand just won't be there.
342 Dark Confidant - Winner. Not going to touch the judge foil, but it will be a solid second place.
343 Fatal Push - Loser. Big loser. Look, it's clever how the topper art is the sequel to the pack art. I like that. But it's not 2018 anymore. Who's paying more than $2 for a Fatal Push? FNM foils are under $10 - significantly under $10.
344 Thoughtseize - Winner. The Amonkhet Invocations are pretty polarizing, and despite being the chase Invocation from Hour of Devastation, Cashseize hasn't really moved from its price from 3 years ago. This printing will allow people to pick a version that is both showy and legible.
345 Loser. This card hasn't been spoiled yet, but I don't have a good feeling about it. Toxic Deluge - Winner. Looks like I spoke too soon in calling this unknown a loser. This is up there with Cyclonic Rift as the best version of a popular EDH card, except it ALSO sees play in Legacy. This card will be hot, and I apologize to Toxic Deluge for calling it a loser without waiting for it to be spoiled.
346 Blood Moon - Winner. I think. This one's tough. It's already got an Invocation that's dropped in price a bit, but I feel like Blood Moon people have a strong identity and want "their" version, so there's room for this one to take off.
347 Goblin Guide - Loser. Nobody who plays Red Deck Wins is looking to pay more - in mana or money - than they have to.
348 Sneak Attack - Loser. The judge foil will stay on top.
349 Crop Rotation - Loser. The topper can't compete with the Urza's Legacy foil.
350 Doubling Season - Winner. I love this card. And so do you.
351 Exploration - Winner, probably. Another EDH card, but definitely the best version this time. Not as winning as Cyclonic Rift, but still winning.
352 Noble Hierarch - Winner. Again, not going to touch the judge promo, though. We've now got how many premium versions of the best Green creature ever? Judge foil, UMA topper foil, RPTQ foil, and now this one. Still a winner.
353 Atraxa, Praetors' Voice - Winner. I look forward to upgrading my Superfriends deck, and making my less-super friends want to punch me.
354 Kaalia of the Vast - Winner, I think? Probably barely. Scott Fischer art saves this one. Is Kaalia still popular? I don't think that the play demand can really save this.
355 Meddling Mage - Loser. OG pack foil wins this one.
356 Batterskull - Loser. Singleton tutor target in Modern or star EDH equipment, again it's the kind of card where people buy maybe one, not "I need four!"
357 Blightsteel Colossus - Winner. But not as much as expected.
358 Chrome Mox - Winner. Popular card, and if it ever gets unbanned in Modern it will go through the ROOF.
359 Expedition Map - Loser. Goes in one Modern deck and some EDH decks. Not enough demand.
360 Lightning Greaves - Loser. Won't be able to compete with the Invention.
361 Mana Crypt - Winner. This card could be cut almost in half and probably be worth the pack.
362 Mox Opal - Loser. Sorry Mox, but the Modern ban really hurt you.
363 Sword of Body and Mind - Loser. Not a great sword, and not the best printing.
364 Sword of Feast and Famine - Winner. A good sword, even though it's not the best printing.
365 Sword of Fire and Ice - Winner. A good sword, even though it's not the best printing.
366 Sword of Light and Shadow - Loser. Not a great sword, and not the best printing.
367 Sword of War and Peace - Loser. Not a great sword, and not the best printing.
368 Wurmcoil Engine - Loser. Invention will be better.
369 Academy Ruins - Loser. Best version and I personally want one, but that's not enough to push it up to a winner.
370 Urza's Mine - Loser. Expedition Map is basically another Tron piece. These four pieces will all trend together.
371 Urza's Power Plant - Loser. Expedition Map is basically another Tron piece. These four pieces will all trend together.
372 Urza's Tower - Loser. Expedition Map is basically another Tron piece. These four pieces will all trend together.
Anyone have any comments? Let me know. I'm sure that I'll be incorrect about at least a few of these, but as a reminder there NEED to be losers. The mean value of a foil topper will start at $50 because they're two for $100 (eventually they'll have room to move away from that as VIP boosters go out of print, but as long as they're available at $100/pop, that's where the foil topper values will start). So for every Mana Crypt that's worth a lot, there needs to be a Fatal Push that's just a flop.