Is it possible to learn Threat asssetment?

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Hermes_
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Post by Hermes_ » 1 year ago

So, i'm horrible at proper threat assessment and was wondering if there is any resources to either learn or a starting point. Or is it dependent on your own environment for anyone to help?
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Post by pokken » 1 year ago

First step is to pay close attention.

I learned by transcribing a couple dozen games and watching what lost me games.

It was so regularly using removal too soon as to be comical.

So rule one is don't use your removal until you lose if you don't. I believe it is best to begin by following that rule literally. Don't remove or counter anything unless you lose if it survives.

Later on you can develop the skill to know when removal to ease your gamelan is worth doing. But trying to figure out when to remove a blocker to get a trigger it's really hard. When do you kill a rhystic study? Etc.

What I found was that waiting was almost always correct.

Figuring out who to kill first or pressure is harder. If that's your issue let me know and I can offer some shorthand.

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Post by Mookie » 1 year ago

Short answer: yes, threat assessment is a learnable skill.

Longer answer: as a general rule, I would say that threat level comes down to three aspects: on-board threats, in-hand threats, and in-deck threats.

On-board threats are usually obvious. If a player has a massive board, or threatening permanents like Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger, then you should evaluate them as more threatening. On the flip side, if a player doesn't have a board, then you can sort of ignore them. I'll also call out that some things are short-term threats, while other things are long-term threats, and you should evaluate them accordingly - a Phyrexian Arena isn't going to kill you immediately, but it represents a significant threat if you expect the game to go 10+ turns longer. On the flip side, if you think the game is going to end in the next turn cycle, then it's much safer to ignore. I won't say that estimating game length is an easy skill... but it's usually possible to at least estimate it based on your meta (i.e. are games 2+ hour slogfests or more on the shorter side?).

In-hand threats are trickier to estimate, but usually come down to whether or not a player has been doing a lot of card manipulation. If the blue player has been casting a bunch of draw spells and has a bunch of cards in hand, or if the black player has been tutoring, then you should be more wary of them. If a player has been topdecking for a while and is emptyhanded, then you can be less wary. To some extent, I'd also include tracking your opponents' graveyards in this category if you know they plan to use it as a second hand - if you're playing against a deck with lots of recursion or reanimation, then try to note if they have scary stuff in their graveyard.

In-deck threats are much more difficult to estimate, since they ultimately come down to knowing the decks you're playing against. If you know someone is running a bunch of combos, or if they have Craterhoof Behemoth or another explosive finisher in their deck, then you should be a bit more concerned. This is usually pretty difficult to estimate, simply because there is a ton of variance in what your opponents will run. I'll give a shout to Thada Adel, Acquisitor, Praetor's Grasp, and other cards that let you search your opponents' decks though - they can be pretty useful in an unfamiliar meta just as a learning tool.

....anyway, I don't have any more elaborate resources off the top of my head, but I'll point to a Command Zone episode as a starting point.

I'll also call out the derived skill, threat assessment management, as something worth keeping in mind - if you can make your opponents think you're less threatening than you actually are (or convince them that an opponent is more threatening than they actually are), then that can be a pretty strong ability.

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Post by Hermes_ » 1 year ago

pokken wrote:
1 year ago

Figuring out who to kill first or pressure is harder. If that's your issue let me know and I can offer some shorthand.
Well, in the most recent game a player had Jin-Gitaxias, Progress Tyrant as their commander, which basically shut down my Akiri, Line-Slinger voltron deck (ignoring the taboo of playing voltron in commander ), once jin got on the field and I felt that attacking and killing that player first was the right move due to it affecting my deck, I'll have to check with everyone else to see what commanders they were playing but afterward there was some light joking about me focusing on the jin player at the expense of the others.

I ended up coming in second in that game.
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Post by Hermes_ » 1 year ago

Mookie wrote:
1 year ago
Short answer: yes, threat assessment is a learnable skill.


....anyway, I don't have any more elaborate resources off the top of my head, but I'll point to a Command Zone episode as a starting point.
This is the kind of thing I was looking for, thank you
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Post by ISBPathfinder » 1 year ago

If you aren't good at threat assessment I would say that you might be overly hastey in spending your interaction. It might be worth trying to hold back more and only interacting as you see something that will within the next turn be game ending for you and only using your interaction at the last reasonable time. Lots of people I have seen with bad threat assessment often spend their interaction too soon to throw wrenches in reasonable plays rather than things that are game ending.

There will still be things that need to super die like Warstorm Surge / Grave Pact depending on how your deck is built but in general I am talking about people using premium removal to stop a Sword of Feast and Famine trigger or something of that sort. Try to be more reserved in using your interaction and play more defensively if you need to.
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Post by duducrash » 1 year ago

Hermes_ wrote:
1 year ago
Well, in the most recent game a player had Jin-Gitaxias, Progress Tyrant as their commander, which basically shut down my Akiri, Line-Slinger voltron deck
I've been down this line often and have been asking arround the shop on how to improve. one honest player told me after a particular game where a player had a Jace Emblem that counters the first spell each turn out "We knew you would focus entirely on him and take him out so we didn't have as much of a need to overcommit our resources to that. we held on to them and when you did kill him we were in a much better position" it was great insight, I don't know how to fix it yet. but at least I know what I've been doing wrong now.

I think I'll try the mulligan route. Once I saw PVDDR (I guess) saying that people should try to mulligan differently for experience. If you are someone who is too conservative on mulligans, try taking super agressive ones for a while and vice versa. you'll gather some data and find a good middle ground. Maybe we could apply that logic to removal.

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Post by PrimevalCommander » 1 year ago

pokken wrote:
1 year ago
So rule one is don't use your removal until you lose if you don't. I believe it is best to begin by following that rule literally. Don't remove or counter anything unless you lose if it survives.
This is great advice. Easy to spot a less experienced player by what they target with removal and counter spells. Once that is known to experienced players, baiting out interaction becomes all too easy and you will always wonder why you never have the answer at the right time.

I'm teaching my brother commander and this is one of my golden rules to him. Don't use removal unless you will loose the game, or are trying to immediately win the game. Counter spells are even more skill oriented since once it resolves, the counter spell is essentially dead until another threat goes on the stack.

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Post by Hermes_ » 1 year ago

ISBPathfinder wrote:
1 year ago
If you aren't good at threat assessment I would say that you might be overly hastey in spending your interaction. It might be worth trying to hold back more and only interacting as you see something that will within the next turn be game ending for you and only using your interaction at the last reasonable time. Lots of people I have seen with bad threat assessment often spend their interaction too soon to throw wrenches in reasonable plays rather than things that are game ending.
I honestly don't play very much interaction with regards to countering things. I think that's due to not wanting to cause "feel bads" and not being great at when knowing the right time/target to use it on.
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Post by void_nothing » 1 year ago

Hermes_ wrote:
1 year ago
I honestly don't play very much interaction with regards to countering things. I think that's due to not wanting to cause "feel bads" and not being great at when knowing the right time/target to use it on.
Honestly, you will learn when the right time and target is with experience, so in other words, play more interaction of all kinds: removal, wipes, counterspells if applicable.
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Post by ISBPathfinder » 1 year ago

Hermes_ wrote:
1 year ago
ISBPathfinder wrote:
1 year ago
If you aren't good at threat assessment I would say that you might be overly hastey in spending your interaction. It might be worth trying to hold back more and only interacting as you see something that will within the next turn be game ending for you and only using your interaction at the last reasonable time. Lots of people I have seen with bad threat assessment often spend their interaction too soon to throw wrenches in reasonable plays rather than things that are game ending.
I honestly don't play very much interaction with regards to countering things. I think that's due to not wanting to cause "feel bads" and not being great at when knowing the right time/target to use it on.
I get the thought but some of the issue with not playing much control is how popular the win from nowhere strategy is and how you often have to have a response be it counter magic or some other level of interaction. The more you see people playing from nowhere the more you have to shift to murdering certain players for how they play regardless of what they have in play or have interaction for them assuming you play slower.

If you don't see a lot of win from nowhere effects then you can get away with less interaction and more "fair magic" but if your goal is to not die to haymaker / combo plays you generally need to move to win first, interact, or have some sort of hatebear effects that stop opponents from doing the annoying thing they are trying for.

There is also a difference between countering everything and stopping the key card that your opponent was going to win from.
Last edited by ISBPathfinder 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Hermes_ » 1 year ago

void_nothing wrote:
1 year ago
Hermes_ wrote:
1 year ago
I honestly don't play very much interaction with regards to countering things. I think that's due to not wanting to cause "feel bads" and not being great at when knowing the right time/target to use it on.
Honestly, you will learn when the right time and target is with experience, so in other words, play more interaction of all kinds: removal, wipes, counterspells if applicable.
Wipe I have and have a pretty good idea when it's best to use them,it's the other single target stuff that I'm not so sure about
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Post by void_nothing » 1 year ago

ISBPathfinder wrote:
1 year ago
or have some sort of hatebear effects that stop opponents from doing the annoying thing they are trying for.
This is an underrated aspect of threat assessment. If you can run the hatebears that apply to your meta, you will have a better time, period.
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Post by PrimevalCommander » 1 year ago

Hermes_ wrote:
1 year ago

Well, in the most recent game a player had Jin-Gitaxias, Progress Tyrant as their commander, which basically shut down my Akiri, Line-Slinger voltron deck (ignoring the taboo of playing voltron in commander ), once jin got on the field and I felt that attacking and killing that player first was the right move due to it affecting my deck,

I ended up coming in second in that game.
Player removal is permanent removal. As long as you recognize ignoring other players allow them to advance at your expense, this can be a perfectly reasonable action to take. Jin Gitaxias is a creature. If that player noticed you were hyper focusing them, they could block, or make a deal to attack into blockers to lower their threat level. If not, then you are trying to win the game and Jin is making that extremely difficult for your deck. Player removal is extremely effective.

Coming in second means that another player got eliminated before you, so it sounds like you held your own afterwards, which points to a decent game plan.

Threat assessment comes with higher awareness of cards in hand vs. cards on board. Also modifying your interaction package to shift the balance of power without having to be the only one at the table answering threats. Blue players complain about getting attacked when they have 7 cards in hand, but no blockers in play. Of course I'm going to attack you for 12, you have no blockers and are sculpting a big storm turn. I'll get my licks in then I can and make you play a bit more defensively. Maybe use some of those tutors for a Cyclonic Rift instead of going after that Time Spiral, Mana Geyser or whatever.

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Post by pokken » 1 year ago

Hermes_ wrote:
1 year ago
pokken wrote:
1 year ago

Figuring out who to kill first or pressure is harder. If that's your issue let me know and I can offer some shorthand.
Well, in the most recent game a player had Jin-Gitaxias, Progress Tyrant as their commander, which basically shut down my Akiri, Line-Slinger voltron deck (ignoring the taboo of playing voltron in commander ), once jin got on the field and I felt that attacking and killing that player first was the right move due to it affecting my deck, I'll have to check with everyone else to see what commanders they were playing but afterward there was some light joking about me focusing on the jin player at the expense of the others.

I ended up coming in second in that game.
With Voltron strategies things are very different from normal commander. You have to kill the people who can stop you from winning first most of the time.

Winning with voltron decks is tricky. Sometimes it's right to try to spread the damage out before you knock someone out? Depends a lot on the social dynamic.

Killing Jin seems like a reasonable read. But who did you lose to and why?

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Post by PrimevalCommander » 1 year ago

My most successful Voltron deck I've played is Kalamax, the Stormsire midrange. While I admit I don't lean toward Voltron strategies much, they have been largely unsuccessful in my meta due to the telegraphed nature of the strategy and the level of interaction we play. Kalamax uses zero equipment, spreads out early game damage to not make anyone too nervous, then sneaks in for commander kills with evasion-granting combat tricks once he is sufficiently large. On average I seem to kill at least 1 player, and often 2 players with commander damage despite not committing many deck slots at all to that end. Kessig Wolf Run is a bomb in that deck. I think the instant speed combat tricks allow opponents to gain a false sense of security in their blockers, and by the time Kalamax is attacking them, it's too late, he is already trampling over a 2/2 chump or has shadow before blocks.

On topic I guess: manipulating your own threat level is just as important as recognizing other players threat level. Big billboard commanders that scream KILL ME NOW will need more protection or planning to get them going. Smaller engine commanders are my favorite for staying in play and creating a synergy piece that the deck can springboard off of. This is why "win from knowwhere" or big explosive plays have become the norm. Everyone can see a big army of 7/7's getting ready to clear the table. Its painfully obvious what is about to happen, and everyone digs for answers and often can come together to survive. Turning a modest army of 1/1's into 6/6 tramplers at the last moment narrows the window on interaction significantly and opponents are still tapping out or less aware of the eminent doom that awaits them. This is difficult to foresee by design and takes close observation to expect a blowout play. And it doesn't always work, but when you see it, and plan for it, the satisfaction is great.

Even recent card printings are facilitating this by using the words "At the beginning of combat on your turn" instead of "At the beginning of your upkeep" to increase the impact of combat-based triggers and avoid the feel-bads of committing mana to a bit threat and getting eaten by Vanquish the Horde on the next players turn.

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Post by Hermes_ » 1 year ago

pokken wrote:
1 year ago
Hermes_ wrote:
1 year ago
pokken wrote:
1 year ago

Figuring out who to kill first or pressure is harder. If that's your issue let me know and I can offer some shorthand.
Well, in the most recent game a player had Jin-Gitaxias, Progress Tyrant as their commander, which basically shut down my Akiri, Line-Slinger voltron deck (ignoring the taboo of playing voltron in commander ), once jin got on the field and I felt that attacking and killing that player first was the right move due to it affecting my deck, I'll have to check with everyone else to see what commanders they were playing but afterward there was some light joking about me focusing on the jin player at the expense of the others.

I ended up coming in second in that game.
With Voltron strategies things are very different from normal commander. You have to kill the people who can stop you from winning first most of the time.

Winning with voltron decks is tricky. Sometimes it's right to try to spread the damage out before you knock someone out? Depends a lot on the social dynamic.

Killing Jin seems like a reasonable read. But who did you lose to and why?
The guy who won had both Kozilek, the Great Distortion, and Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger out and the only way I had in hand to ignore the mill was a Platinum Angel which was countered.
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Post by Dunharrow » 1 year ago

I don't think you misread the game. It sounds like you could eliminate Jin and lose to Kozilek, or you could eliminate Kozilek player and get locked out by Jin.
The issue isn't misreading threat level. The issue is Jin completely locking you out means you need to deal with it while you can, regardless of threat level.
The only way I could see you getting the win is if you negotiated with Jin not to play their commander until you knocked out the other players who were maybe further ahead.
And then you just need to make sure you have enough out at that time that you can still fight Jin with what you have on board.
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Post by pokken » 1 year ago

It sounds to me like you're just dealing with the consequences of being a voltron deck. :).

Might be more of a deck construction problem. Closing the game with voltron is hard.

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Post by void_nothing » 1 year ago

pokken wrote:
1 year ago
It sounds to me like you're just dealing with the consequences of being a voltron deck. :).

Might be more of a deck construction problem. Closing the game with voltron is hard.
I honestly have to agree. Hermes: Maybe you're underestimating your own skills?
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Post by Hermes_ » 1 year ago

void_nothing wrote:
1 year ago
pokken wrote:
1 year ago
It sounds to me like you're just dealing with the consequences of being a voltron deck. :).

Might be more of a deck construction problem. Closing the game with voltron is hard.
I honestly have to agree. Hermes: Maybe you're underestimating your own skills?
It's more than likely a combination of both my low confidence in my skills and not doing proper threat assessment
pokken wrote:
1 year ago
It sounds to me like you're just dealing with the consequences of being a voltron deck. :).

Might be more of a deck construction problem. Closing the game with voltron is hard.
I took out Gordo/helm combo a and I think sold off the pieces because it just felt dirty to me to win like that if it makes any sense lol but I am going to put back in Grafted Exoskeleton to kill faster, I also run a modified Ur dragon percon (added in stuff to help with CipT lands and a few other ways to cheat in dragons. I plan to rebuild my suspend deck, I just need to go back over the last few sets and see if there' anything I should order for it.
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Post by pokken » 1 year ago

Best relatively universal advice I can give is to get a notebook and keep turn by turn notes for a few games at least.

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Post by DirkGently » 1 year ago

Honestly I think just paying attention to how you lose will build into instinct over time. Get to know all the common combo pieces, and the sorts of things that can become combos, and the game states that are likely to become winning states. You can do this intentionally, but I think you can just absorb it from playing and/or building and/or looking at decklists. I've never made any intentional effort to develop my threat assessment, it just kinda happens. Though I think @pokken's recommendation that you basically hold your fire until you're actually going to lose is a good starting place if you want to work on it.

Being able to look at a commander and have a reasonable expectation of how it's going to play - whether that's from knowing about it from prior knowledge, or just from reading it and intuiting - is a really good starting place too. If you sit down at a table with Gisa and Geralf, Vazi, Keen Negotiator, and Urza, Lord High Artificer, you should know where to put the most scrutiny before a single card hits the battlefield.
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Post by 3drinks » 1 year ago

As a rule of thumb, I don't remove stuff unless it stops me from doing what I want, or it's a rhystic study at a table where players don't pay because "they're just drawing cards, it's not a problem". For a recent example, as I've been rocking the Gut/Agent/Obosh deck and absolutely killing it, many players are incorrectly identifying Gut, True Soul Zealot as the problem card when it's the Agent of the Iron Throne that's doing the heavy lifting and grinding them out. Gut is just another timing-specific [free] sac outlet. Yet it's my little grey ogre commander that people try to kill. Yes, removing Gut turns off the background, but he's cheap enough to replay and keep going, and ultimately you can block my skelies all day or direct them to another player they can hit; the background is the real powerhouse that people never remove yet is responsible for clocking them out so that the skelies become lethal.

I suspect a similar thing is happening with you, you're looking with a bit of narrow lenses for a specific cause that it's causing you to miss the big picture you're actually losing to.

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Post by Jemolk » 1 year ago

So, several people have mentioned winning from nowhere as both a danger that could require you to play interaction, and a thing that people do to avoid being too obvious about how threatening they are in advance. For the threat assessment manipulation side of things, I find that being known to not ever win from nowhere is very helpful in lowering my perceived threat level. Sometimes, it's still not enough, particularly when I lack on-board deterrence for attackers, but just the fact that if I'm going to win, you'll see it coming means that when you don't see it coming, you know I'm not a super urgent threat to win right away.

On the threat assessment end of things, I second the idea of waiting as long as possible and only going after the things that risk making you lose the game. This is a skill that you build up over a long-ish period of time, and the more control-style decks you play, the easier it will be to get better. It's more art than science, as there are too many variables to really nail it down in precise terms. It's also something where you're not necessarily making one big mistake; it could be a number of very slightly sub-optimal plays leading up to not having what you need at the time you need it. There are also ways to subtly politic your way into not having to use removal on things, sometimes, so, for example, if your concern about something is that it will immediately go after you or your stuff, ask about it first. Give your opponents the chance to say, "no, it's not going for you" before you assume it is or decide you can't take the risk that it will. However, in your example, with Jin basically shutting you out of the game just by virtue of the commander, going after him first is entirely reasonable. Quite possibly necessary, even.
39 Commander decks and counting. I'm sure this is fine, and not at all a problem.

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