[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
So we had a 125 person MCQ yesterday. Hogaak won (not Dredge Gaak). The top 8 was
1. Mardu Shadow
2. Tron
3. Jund
4. UR Phoenix
5. Jund
6. Humans
7. UW Control
8. Hogaak
Was that at TC Rockets? That's the store I usually go to for FNM. :party: It matches the same top 8 we had. Couple of my friends just missed out on T8 (with one of them on the bubble of 9th). I was unable to attend, though I don't have any illusions of grandeur that I would have done better than 3-4 with whatever pile of not-UW-Control blue cards I would have registered anyway. :crazy:
idSurge wrote:
2 years ago
We dont even have Day 2 for the GP yet, and the Top 8 is shaping up. Wizards coverage has become a complete joke.
Not like it really matters. We have back to back to back Modern GPs being warped by a card that will absolutely be banned the day after GP Vegas.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

idSurge wrote:
2 years ago
You on Devoted?

We dont even have Day 2 for the GP yet, and the Top 8 is shaping up. Wizards coverage has become a complete joke.
No, I was on Naya Scapeshift. Lost to 2 Burn that barely beat me, Mill that demolished me, and an Eldrazi Taxes deck that dodged more than 1 Path to Exile and 0 Anger of the Gods in 3 games. :( It was a very embarrassing performance.

The friend on Devoted would have run Titan Breach if he still had the cards. He also very rarely goes to these kinds of tournaments, but usually gets lucky for the first 5-6 rounds, lol. (I hope he doesn't see this here.)
cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
So we had a 125 person MCQ yesterday. Hogaak won (not Dredge Gaak). The top 8 was
1. Mardu Shadow
2. Tron
3. Jund
4. UR Phoenix
5. Jund
6. Humans
7. UW Control
8. Hogaak
Was that at TC Rockets? That's the store I usually go to for FNM. :party: It matches the same top 8 we had. Couple of my friends just missed out on T8 (with one of them on the bubble of 9th). I was unable to attend, though I don't have any illusions of grandeur that I would have done better than 3-4 with whatever pile of not-UW-Control blue cards I would have registered anyway. :crazy:
Yes, TC's Rockets. I normally wouldn't go there, for reasons, but it was the only place having an MCQ that weekend. Now I have to wait for Las Vegas.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
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Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

Zach Dunn (Hedron Crab Hogaak) vs. Diego Barbagelata (Hogaak)
Jonathan Corzo (Hogaak) vs. Peter Ward (Hogaak)
Justin Plocher (Hedron Crab Hogaak) vs. Stephen Tuchek (Humans)
Lucien Longlais (Burn) vs. Ryan Overturf (Mono-Red Prowess)

Now THIS, is what I'm talking about. Well done to the players of the GP.
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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

idSurge wrote:
2 years ago
Zach Dunn (Hedron Crab Hogaak) vs. Diego Barbagelata (Hogaak)
Jonathan Corzo (Hogaak) vs. Peter Ward (Hogaak)
Justin Plocher (Hedron Crab Hogaak) vs. Stephen Tuchek (Humans)
Lucien Longlais (Burn) vs. Ryan Overturf (Mono-Red Prowess)

Now THIS, is what I'm talking about. Well done to the players of the GP.
Jesus. Is that the GP Top 8?

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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

Yeah, straight up dumpster fire. If it's not banned tomorrow, enjoy the next 2 GPS.
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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

Lol that T8 is abominable:



Hilariously, Hogaak actually overperformed into the T8 from its already awful Day 2 numbers:



I've never said this before that I can remember, but I'm legitimately entertaining the possibility of an emergency ban. I just don't see a good reason to ruin GP Vegas for a deck that is so obviously broken. It would be one thing if a post-MC4 GP didn't look as bad as the MC4. But this is actually worse and the deck couldn't be more of a known entity at this point. More GP datapoints aren't needed to confirm it's broken.
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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

If it's not banned tomorrow, I'll be shocked.
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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
2 years ago
I've never said this before that I can remember, but I'm legitimately entertaining the possibility of an emergency ban. I just don't see a good reason to ruin GP Vegas for a deck that is so obviously broken. It would be one thing if a post-MC4 GP didn't look as bad as the MC4. But this is actually worse and the deck couldn't be more of a known entity at this point. More GP datapoints aren't needed to confirm it's broken.
We'll just see how much they weigh the "feelbads" of destroying the deck some people are planning to play (and likely be very successful with) at these upcoming events, or leaving it in place and horrendously warping Modern for everybody else. Remember that they allowed Eldrazi to wreak havok for three months before banning it at the next scheduled update. They seem to have no issue letting broken stuff ruin formats; at least until the next planned announcement.

However, when Eye was finally banned, it was accompanied by a double unban. So maybe this is their window to give back some locked-away toys? Who knows. Maybe I need to stop giving myself these fleeting feelings of hope... :sweat:

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

idSurge wrote:
2 years ago
If it's not banned tomorrow, I'll be shocked.
I know you're partially joking, but they can't do that. They don't want to punish people for doing well with new cards. The day after, it will look like just that. If they ban it a week later, it will look like they are trying to make the GP Vegas more enjoyable. Appearances are everything and nothing else matters. It doesn't matter if 99% of the mtg playing population knows they want attendance and profits at a GP. "They are doing it to make the play experience better." Just like they did to Top in Legacy.
cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
However, when Eye was finally banned, it was accompanied by a double unban. So maybe this is their window to give back some locked-away toys? Who knows. Maybe I need to stop giving myself these fleeting feelings of hope... :sweat:
You and me both. I still have that glimmer of hope. That day when Eye was banned and Sword/Vision were unbanned was one of the best days of my life, lol. I'm starting to believe that even Green Sun's Zenith would do almost nothing in Modern.

*Thinking more in depth about it, they could unban Stoneforge Mystic AND Splinter Twin. Splinter Twin being unbanned moves people even more to Jund, which sells more Wrenn and Six. The card could actually easily go over $100, as much as I personally think it will go down after the GP. This seems like an intelligent move, although I don't know where they are going to reprint Stoneforge Mystic to print money on trees. Technically they could put it in Standard. What's the best equipment in Standard? Probably a 1 mana, 1 equip, +1/+0, right?
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
idSurge wrote:
2 years ago
If it's not banned tomorrow, I'll be shocked.
I know you're partially joking, but they can't do that. They don't want to punish people for doing well with new cards. The day after, it will look like just that. If they ban it a week later, it will look like they are trying to make the GP Vegas more enjoyable. Appearances are everything and nothing else matters. It doesn't matter if 99% of the mtg playing population knows they want attendance and profits at a GP. "They are doing it to make the play experience better." Just like they did to Top in Legacy.
There is simply no reason to wait. The deck was broken with Bridge and remains broken now. We have two months of horrific data on how absurdly broken this deck is. They are not punishing people for doing well with new cards. They are correcting a demonstrably broken mistake that will likely ruin two large events and countless smaller ones when it's going to get banned in late August anyway.
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

They waited nearly 2 months. What is another week to save face? People here, myself probably right at the top of this, seem to think that having a healthy meta is the top of WotC's concern. It's not. This is still a business run by Hasbro to make profits. Most of the things they do are to reap profits, like most businesses that have not gone bankrupt thrive on.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
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Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
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Limited - Will start when paper starts
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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
They waited nearly 2 months. What is another week to save face? People here, myself probably right at the top of this, seem to think that having a healthy meta is the top of WotC's concern. It's not. This is still a business run by Hasbro to make profits. Most of the things they do are to reap profits, like most businesses that have not gone bankrupt thrive on.
I don't view it as saving face. They are doing it either to a) improve player experience in a popular format that would otherwise be miserable for a few weeks, and/or b) increase Modern-related revenue for them and their tournament partners in a period of time that will likely see reduced revenue due to Hogaak being unfun. To be clear, both of these points are predicated on Hogaak being objectively broken and out of control independent of those goals. Wizards should not ban things because a subset of players might find it more fun to have those things banned. But if Hogaak is already going to be banned in a few weeks because all the data unequivocally points to it being broken, there is no good reason to wait.
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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
They waited nearly 2 months. What is another week to save face? People here, myself probably right at the top of this, seem to think that having a healthy meta is the top of WotC's concern. It's not. This is still a business run by Hasbro to make profits. Most of the things they do are to reap profits, like most businesses that have not gone bankrupt thrive on.
You save face by banning it. Shake up right before Vegas? That's even worse.

Ban it tomorrow. I'm not kidding.

This 'oh they cannot because profits' is comical when the set has W6, Force, Prismatic.

If they don't ban it, I probably end up blocked by Forsythe tomorrow.
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

idSurge wrote:
2 years ago
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
They waited nearly 2 months. What is another week to save face? People here, myself probably right at the top of this, seem to think that having a healthy meta is the top of WotC's concern. It's not. This is still a business run by Hasbro to make profits. Most of the things they do are to reap profits, like most businesses that have not gone bankrupt thrive on.
You save face by banning it. Shake up right before Vegas? That's even worse.

Ban it tomorrow. I'm not kidding.

This 'oh they cannot because profits' is comical when the set has W6, Force, Prismatic.

If they don't ban it, I probably end up blocked by Forsythe tomorrow.
Yeah, you have a point.

They failed to ban it previously, but I guess that also completed a goal of banning a card that most Modern players secretly wanted banned since 2011 - Bridge from Below. Now that the menace of Modern is gone, it's time to ban the "real" card that caused the problem, eh?

I'm not saying to leave it unbanned forever. Deathrite Shaman swayed clear of the Modern ban list for many many years. Eventually it was banned and Bloodbraid Elf came off years later. I'm sorry if I don't expect things to happen quickly.

I love that last sentence! P.S. - when they do ban it, Aaron will get my 4 copies in the mail, torn in half, next to the receipt of $100 that I paid when the card just came out and spiked to $35 (I got a hell of a deal at the time by bargaining like crazy). There will be a note that says, "I hear you need $100, but I didn't want to tear up a $100 bill because you'd tape it back together."

*I know Bridge from Below will never get unbanned because "it does broken things," but I will stand next to the other 4 people that want this unbanned until Modern as a format ends. The busted stuff that it did predicated on the card Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis and multiple new cards. Outside of that, what it did was this - when someone plays sweepers, if you had it in your yard, you would get that number of 2/2s. It lowered the efficiency of sweepers. Occasionally if you had the Combo, you could use B to cast and recast Gravecrawler from your yard to put +1/+1 counters on Carrion Feeder and get a 2/2 Zombie per counter. While I'm in the minority of thinking that this combo is no more powerful than Champion of the Parish + Humans, Thing and Phoenix + spells, dredge cards + graveyard cards, burn + mana to cast that burn, and many other things that's going on in Modern right now. But maybe it is? Maybe Bridge would make Bridge Vine beat all of these decks that it never beat before MH?
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

Why do you carry this torch for Bridge? Like beyond an ideological reason, it's a net negative to exist.

I mean sorry you are going to eat a loss, but this cards been on borrowed time since the deck came to light.

Imagine if they didn't artificially manipulate 5-0 lists? Imagine if they didn't hide MTGO Data?

You look to play broken decks, over the years your spike nature has been clear.

We'll, you had your chance, it's time for Modern to get some actual respect from Wizards, leaving Hogaak around to %$#% on 2 more events does what?

Near 20% Day 2.
5/8 Top 8.
All Hogaak Final.

Ban this garbage.
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
*I know Bridge from Below will never get unbanned because "it does broken things," but I will stand next to the other 4 people that want this unbanned until Modern as a format ends. The busted stuff that it did predicated on the card Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis and multiple new cards. Outside of that, what it did was this - when someone plays sweepers, if you had it in your yard, you would get that number of 2/2s. It lowered the efficiency of sweepers. Occasionally if you had the Combo, you could use B to cast and recast Gravecrawler from your yard to put +1/+1 counters on Carrion Feeder and get a 2/2 Zombie per counter. While I'm in the minority of thinking that this combo is no more powerful than Champion of the Parish + Humans, Thing and Phoenix + spells, dredge cards + graveyard cards, burn + mana to cast that burn, and many other things that's going on in Modern right now. But maybe it is? Maybe Bridge would make Bridge Vine beat all of these decks that it never beat before MH?
And no, this isnt 'what it did' in Modern.

It did either NOTHING in modern (last 5 years?) times, or it let you throw X costed Creatures into the yard for nothing, hoping to power out Vengevines on Turn 1, with some zombies.

That wasnt good enough, because it folds to hate, so what it did THEN was let you combo kill your opponent by making them mill on turn 2, while you had 20+ power on board.

Convince me thats worth existing in the format.
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

The main reason IS the ideological reason. I don't think that any card that is harmless should be banned in Modern. I did not think Sword of the Meek should be banned, even when it would do literally nothing. Can you imagine Sword of the Meek thriving in the same format as Rite of Flame? Now Sword of the Meek is actually powerful. What changed? Urza is a seriously strong/busted card. I wouldn't mind playing Bridge from Below decks from time to time - aka the original Hogaak-less Bridge Vine. I would like that option to be available to the other 4 people in the world that actually like to play that.

If Wizards allows a Tier 0 deck to exist, why not play it? Should I purposely avoid playing those decks? Should I look for the plethora of decks that get slaughtered by those decks and actively play those? If there is no Tier 1 deck, I usually play what I'm good at or what I like to try (to expand my range).

Why do I care about the timing? They should have banned it when everyone else knew it should be banned. They missed that window. Do you know HOW I test right now? I test every single deck that I want to play against Hogaak only. If it loses to Hogaak, I will not play it. If it has game and seems like it's solid in the rest of the meta, I will play it. If I fail in testing, I will run Hogaak itself and hedge for the mirror. I literally do not play a single game or match of Modern that doesn't involve Hogaak. I don't know if I'm wasting my time. Should I quit testing for Vegas against Hogaak?

p.s. - I have at least 1 friend that went 11-4 with Boryo's Vengeance, a non Hogaak, deck at that GP. There's nothing wrong with playing the best deck or whatever you like to try to beat that. My bad, he went 10-5. He lost to 3 Hogaak on Day 2 after an 8-1 day 1. :(
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Post by Albegas » 2 years ago

I'm also of the opinion that there won't be an emergency ban simply because they don't want the precedence. The Felidar Guardian was arguably already a crap shoot. If they do another E-ban, it opens the gate for more players to demand e-bans on decks far less worthy of one the next time a deck happens to have a few breakout tourneys like the early days of Grixis Shadow. Slippery slope argument, I know, but vocal players aren't exactly confined to discussions void of logical fallacies. Admittedly I'm bias since I don't play at the GP level, but say just let Hogaak run wild for another 3 weeks and smack the deck with our regularly scheduled ban hammer

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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
The main reason IS the ideological reason. I don't think that any card that is harmless should be banned in Modern. I did not think Sword of the Meek should be banned, even when it would do literally nothing. Can you imagine Sword of the Meek thriving in the same format as Rite of Flame? Now Sword of the Meek is actually powerful. What changed? Urza is a seriously strong/busted card. I wouldn't mind playing Bridge from Below decks from time to time - aka the original Hogaak-less Bridge Vine. I would like that option to be available to the other 4 people in the world that actually like to play that.
I mean this is fair. I've been on this side of the debate before, but when it comes to decks like this, the opportunity cost simply is not worth it in my eyes. Sword could at least be a value card. Bridge is LITERALLY nothing if not abused. We have enough of that here.
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
If Wizards allows a Tier 0 deck to exist, why not play it? Should I purposely avoid playing those decks? Should I look for the plethora of decks that get slaughtered by those decks and actively play those? If there is no Tier 1 deck, I usually play what I'm good at or what I like to try (to expand my range).
Thats between you and God really. If a deck is simply rancid to me (KCI, Eldrazi for example) I wont play them, I and many others simply stop playing. Hows that for the bottom line at Wizards?
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
Why do I care about the timing? They should have banned it when everyone else knew it should be banned. They missed that window. Do you know HOW I test right now? I test every single deck that I want to play against Hogaak only. If it loses to Hogaak, I will not play it. If it has game and seems like it's solid in the rest of the meta, I will play it. If I fail in testing, I will run Hogaak itself and hedge for the mirror. I literally do not play a single game or match of Modern that doesn't involve Hogaak. I don't know if I'm wasting my time. Should I quit testing for Vegas against Hogaak?
Honestly? You should play Hogaak, or Mono R(g) Phoenix/Prowess. IMO yes, you are 100% wasting your time if thats not what you are playing and you are looking at it from a Spike only perspective.

Find the best Hogaak variant.
Find the fastest R(g) Phoenix/Prowess variant.

Do nothing else till Vegas. Thats what I would do if I was you.
Albegas wrote:
2 years ago
I'm also of the opinion that there won't be an emergency ban simply because they don't want the precedence. The Felidar Guardian was arguably already a crap shoot. If they do another E-ban, it opens the gate for more players to demand e-bans on decks far less worthy of one the next time a deck happens to have a few breakout tourneys like the early days of Grixis Shadow. Slippery slope argument, I know, but vocal players aren't exactly confined to discussions void of logical fallacies. Admittedly I'm bias since I don't play at the GP level, but say just let Hogaak run wild for another 3 weeks and smack the deck with our regularly scheduled ban hammer
This renders all data meaningless from these events, and you then have people saying "Modern is fine" based on a fallacy.
Last edited by idSurge 2 years ago, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

I will say that players I know are actively avoiding the Magic Fest in Las Vegas because Hogaak is legal. I have already locked it in, so it would be tough for me to do so.

Maybe the actual Magic Fest attendance doesn't go down much? Maybe it's just the actual Modern GP that goes down, while the Limited one thrives? I don't know. But I know people personally who are avoiding Vegas because of the current situation.
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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

There are people I follow on twitter who wont play the main event because of it, but I would expect grinders who actually care to compete, to be on those 2 decks. I mean when you have someone Day 2 with Ponza, thats just Modern for you, but its not a winners deck.
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Post by Albegas » 2 years ago

idSurge wrote:
2 years ago
This renders all data meaningless from these events, and you then have people saying "Modern is fine" based on a fallacy.
How does the data become meaningless? When the time comes, they can still quote the data. A lack of a response doesn't mean that Wizards is necessarily OK with the state of the meta. Wizards clearly wasn't OK with Eldrazi Winter despite overwhelming evidence that Eldrazi Aggro was broken with Eye legal, and I know for a fact that they responded to at least one Tweet asking why there wasn't an emergency ban. Heck, we already have a tweet from Forscythe implying that Hogaak is a mistake

If it's not 100% clear, I'm all aboard banning Hogaak come the end of August. I just think that it's better for WotC not to set a precedence of emergency bans. Anyone saying that a lack of an emergency ban is implied consent by Wizards that Hogaak is OK just need to look back Eldrazi Winter to figure out otherwise, and people ignoring the clear side by side comparison while shouting "Modern is fine" probably will say that Modern was fine even if there is an emergency ban

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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

Albegas wrote:
2 years ago
How does the data become meaningless?
Meaningless, within the context of format health.

No ban? 'Oh its only Hogaak thats the problem, just remove it and we are fine!'

But we cannot know that, without large GP level events. Hogaak needs to go NOW so we can actually see if there are issues in the format that need to be addressed. When a deck is taking 20% of the day 2, and 63.5% of the Top 8, and 100% of the final, its hard to say what else is going on as there is no air left in the format for anyone else.
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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

For the first time ever, I'm putting in for the emergency ban of something:

In summary, Hogaak represents a unique situation we have never seen before. We have exceptionally dominant performance numbers and a major impact on sideboards/graveyard hate (admittedly, not necessarily limited to Hogaak). More alarmingly, however, this is the continuation of a failed/insufficient ban decision in July 2019 to address a deck that was already proven to be broken. It continues to overperform and break Modern events, justifying an emergency ban under both its performance and previous emergency ban precedents. I would fully support this move by R&D, and also don't think it sets a dangerous precedent in the future. Hopefully, Wizards doesn't create a situation where a deck is both super broken AND continues to be broken after a failed initial ban decision.
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Post by Albegas » 2 years ago

idSurge wrote:
2 years ago
Albegas wrote:
2 years ago
How does the data become meaningless?
Meaningless, within the context of format health.

No ban? 'Oh its only Hogaak thats the problem, just remove it and we are fine!'

But we cannot know that, without large GP level events. Hogaak needs to go NOW so we can actually see if there are issues in the format that need to be addressed. When a deck is taking 20% of the day 2, and 63.5% of the Top 8, and 100% of the final, its hard to say what else is going on as there is no air left in the format for anyone else.
I'll concede that I was thinking most about the format as is and not the format after Hogaak is banned, and there is merit in wanting to make sure all the T0 decks have been stamped out well before the next cycle of major tournaments. However, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't there only 1 major tournament after the upcoming GP? So if we get an emergency ban before GP Vegas, we only have 2 major tournaments to judge if there is a broken deck hiding under the success of Hogaak. We've well established that breakout decks can and often do take two consecutive major tournaments only to fizzle out and prove not to be broken, so what difference does 1 tournament make when it comes to ban data? If such a deck does break out, I'd be willing to bet that the driving factor for the ban will be online data, not the success of a deck after two major tournaments.

That being said Pandora's Box was already opened when they made the bad decision to ban Felidar Guardian two days after the ban announcement, so no skin off my back if they do decide to go with an emergency ban

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idSurge
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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

There is one next weekend and then the Vegas. It makes more sense to ban Hogaak now, than a week before the premium event that Vegas normally is.
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