[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Tzoulis
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Post by Tzoulis » 3 months ago

Ed06288 wrote:
3 months ago
I feel deck building is slightly homogenized. I'm seeing too much Lurrus and Urza's Saga. I don't like that most fringe decks consist of some flavor of Bg/x with Lurrus. Ragavan is played too much too. Ragavan is played in Izzet tempo, Rakdos Lurrus, Jeskai Stoneblade, and Obosh builds. It literally sees play in aggro, midrange, and control builds. Some decks can even run combinations of these cards. Hammer time can play both Lurrus and Urza's Saga. I want to see cards limited to seeing play to just one or 2 decks.
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Would you be willing to do something about: Bolt, SFM, Path (before, now Prismatic Ending), Ancient Stirrings, Expressive Iteration and other cards? Modern always resolved around either specific (combination) of cards orspecific colors, today's situation isn't any different on that front. The biggest downside is that Ragavan is absurdly expensive, while Murktide and Saga are at a usual Modern staple level (on paper, not online)..

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Post by Albegas » 3 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
3 months ago
True, I misread your post. But I still don't give them any credit for it. They're still not following any kind of consistent data-driven regiment when it comes to bans, and all meaningful data is purposely hidden from us.
I think the issue is that the most meaningful data can't be given to us. At the end of the day, the most important data isn't from meta shares or win rates. It's participation and growth. If the number of players playing a format is consistent or growing, the actual state of the meta doesn't matter. It only matters if participation for a profitable format sees consistent decline over a period of time. However, you absolutely can't let the player base know those benchmarks, especially now that social media is so prevalent in the daily lives of the average human being. If players knew the minimum losses required to force WotC to take action, reputable players could potentially use their influence to artificially create trends that force WotC to take actions to manipulate the meta, or at the very least they could essentially taint data that WotC uses by manipulating trends such that win rates would likely be the only true empirical data. I couldn't tell you if this is new or if I'm only just now noticing it, but Pioneer really showed that meta shares < win rates < player participation. So yes, any ban citing empirical data about meta shares and win rates will likely always seem contrived because those aren't what matter most and are likely no longer the actual driving forces behind a ban, if they ever truly were.

This is where I start playing Devil's Advocate: I'm fine with that. Pioneer has proven in the past that you can't base bans purely on empirical data about win rates or meta shares, and when Modern has to compete with both Pioneer and Historic (which is arguably just Modern with a different starting set and different cards artificially injected periodically), they can ban whatever they want so long as the format lives. Yeah the Twin ban sucks IMO but it clearly didn't kill Modern, and a dead pet deck is better than a dead format. WotC has clearly made many mistakes in the last few years, but as far as bans go, I haven't seen a ban that's actually killed a format. As far as I can tell, only awful R&D mistakes and a lack of action have ever endangered a format recently, and those are likely the only two things that will kill a format in the next few years.

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Post by ThatStoryTeller » 3 months ago

I have taken my cryptic commands out of my faeries list and put them in my metagame toolkit. The removal of the card is due to the logic that if the red 1drops are speeding up the pace of the format then far has no time for it. I have to ask a general consensus of if the format will hit a point where an aggro control deck could play cryptic again?
Last edited by ThatStoryTeller 3 months ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by cfusionpm » 3 months ago

Cryptic has a place, but it's likely in a UW dra-go deck that wins with a Jace or 5cmc Teferi and literally nothing else. Otherwise, Cryptic is just too slow and too low impact for the speed and low curve of the format right now.

That being said, I think the Delverless Delver is the most exciting and fun deck I have played in the past 5 years. It has a lot of lines of play, lots of deck manipulation, and what feels like the perfect combination of threats, protection, and burn spells. I piloted it for the first time yesterday at FNM and won every single Game 1, but got thoroughly shellacked in post-board games, going 1-2, 2-0, 1-2, 1-2. My SB was a bit of a mess and my SB strategy was definitely not good. I was functioning in the mindset of a control deck, which this is absolutely not. It's an aggro/tempo deck, which I have apparently forgotten how to sideboard in the past 2 years or so. Nevertheless, good chatting with some of the other players and making some swaps to the board (as well as discussing what to remove from an incredibly tight list) and this below is the result of the changes and what I'd bring next week (though still 50/50 on swapping Forces for Pierce).

Image

Unrelated, UR Demilitch Phoenix is a new hotness that no fewer than 3 people were playing. Seems to have explosive potential, but can also fizzle out. Interestingly does not play Monkeys.

Overall, Modern feels as good as it has ever been. And while the power level is definitely up, no one deck feels heads and shoulders above the rest.... even if it is kind of a Rock/Paper/Scissors product of new MH2 cards.

I wish I could play this online though. Even if I sell off all my remaining online money cards, I would still need something like another $200 just for the two missing pieces.... :omg: :cry:

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Post by Aazadan » 3 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
3 months ago
That being said, I think the Delverless Delver is the most exciting and fun deck I have played in the past 5 years.

My next plan is to try out a RWU list, essentially replacing black with blue, I've got a couple theories about the format right now that I'm interested in testing out and Soulfire Grand Master plus Unholy Heat is proving itself to be potent enough that I want to try exploring that a bit more.

The positives going for it are that it can keep a Lurrus+Bauble package, and the DRC/Ragavan core. Then it can add in burn plus soulfire and then leverage blue for a couple other counterspells. Currently looking at Spellstutter Sprite and maybe Mana Leak. Maybe a set of Opt as well, and then round out the creature package with some Shark Typhoon.

Interestingly, I'm not sure I want many Prismatic Endings.

The big downside I'm seeing though is that I'm finding 3 colors to be a huge disadvantage in the current format, and that I'm likely giving up a ton of good interaction by not having discard and only a few weaker counterspells.

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Post by Ed06288 » 3 months ago

Tzoulis wrote:
3 months ago
Ed06288 wrote:
3 months ago
I feel deck building is slightly homogenized. I'm seeing too much Lurrus and Urza's Saga. I don't like that most fringe decks consist of some flavor of Bg/x with Lurrus. Ragavan is played too much too. Ragavan is played in Izzet tempo, Rakdos Lurrus, Jeskai Stoneblade, and Obosh builds. It literally sees play in aggro, midrange, and control builds. Some decks can even run combinations of these cards. Hammer time can play both Lurrus and Urza's Saga. I want to see cards limited to seeing play to just one or 2 decks.
Post Reply Previous topicNext topic
Would you be willing to do something about: Bolt, SFM, Path (before, now Prismatic Ending), Ancient Stirrings, Expressive Iteration and other cards? Modern always resolved around either specific (combination) of cards orspecific colors, today's situation isn't any different on that front. The biggest downside is that Ragavan is absurdly expensive, while Murktide and Saga are at a usual Modern staple level (on paper, not online)..
I feel that it's worse now. Old staples largely went into fair decks, but stuff like urza's saga can plug into anything like affinity, e-tron, hammer, 8 rack, amulet, and food decks. Plus I'm unhappy how tempo-oriented the format is now. But that might be personal preference.

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Post by Bearscape » 3 months ago

Urza's Saga, Ragavan and Lurrus all get played in fair decks. The least fair is probably hammertime, which even then is a creature combo deck that rewards playing spot removal; generally a sign of a healthy format.

After MH1 warped modern for a year and caused several bans I was somewhat worried about MH2. Now some time has passed and I'm cautiously willing to say that, apart from the price tag, they nailed it with MH2. All the breakout cards promote interactive magic.

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Post by Simto » 3 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
3 months ago
Cryptic has a place, but it's likely in a UW dra-go deck that wins with a Jace or 5cmc Teferi and literally nothing else. Otherwise, Cryptic is just too slow and too low impact for the speed and low curve of the format right now.

That being said, I think the Delverless Delver is the most exciting and fun deck I have played in the past 5 years. It has a lot of lines of play, lots of deck manipulation, and what feels like the perfect combination of threats, protection, and burn spells. I piloted it for the first time yesterday at FNM and won every single Game 1, but got thoroughly shellacked in post-board games, going 1-2, 2-0, 1-2, 1-2. My SB was a bit of a mess and my SB strategy was definitely not good. I was functioning in the mindset of a control deck, which this is absolutely not. It's an aggro/tempo deck, which I have apparently forgotten how to sideboard in the past 2 years or so. Nevertheless, good chatting with some of the other players and making some swaps to the board (as well as discussing what to remove from an incredibly tight list) and this below is the result of the changes and what I'd bring next week (though still 50/50 on swapping Forces for Pierce).

Image

Unrelated, UR Demilitch Phoenix is a new hotness that no fewer than 3 people were playing. Seems to have explosive potential, but can also fizzle out. Interestingly does not play Monkeys.

Overall, Modern feels as good as it has ever been. And while the power level is definitely up, no one deck feels heads and shoulders above the rest.... even if it is kind of a Rock/Paper/Scissors product of new MH2 cards.

I wish I could play this online though. Even if I sell off all my remaining online money cards, I would still need something like another $200 just for the two missing pieces.... :omg: :cry:

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That deck looks filthy!

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Post by The Fluff » 3 months ago

liking the situation as well. We now just have golden monkeys, instead of Hogaak demolishing everyone.

the only problem now are the price.
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Post by cfusionpm » 3 months ago

The Fluff wrote:
3 months ago
liking the situation as well. We now just have golden monkeys, instead of Hogaak demolishing everyone.

the only problem now are the price.
For sure! A 2/1 for 1 that dies to all of the most popular pieces of interaction (even Lava Dart and Gut Shot!) and is easily nullified by blocking creatures is way more healthy than a free, recursive, trampling 8/8. 😅

I sincerely hope it stays around for a while. Not just because of the money, but the x/1 toughness makes it pretty reasonably fair.

And honestly, DRC might secretly be the better card. Like Ragavan is good. Nuts even. But DRC is a powerhouse in of itself. The Surveil-upon-spell-cast effectively staples an Opt onto all the cantrips. IE Serum Visions becomes: Surveil 1, Draw 1, Scry 2. That filtering and filling the yard works works to speed up Delve threats as well as get Delirium ASAP. This deck is deeply synergistic in a way that UR decks have not ever seen before in Modern. Every card helps every other card be better at what it wants to do. I love it, and sincerely hope it doesn't eat a ban (at least not past Bauble, which if we're real, will likely be banned whenever Modern receives its next B&R update).

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Post by Tzoulis » 3 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
3 months ago
nd honestly, DRC might secretly be the better card. Like Ragavan is good. Nuts even.
Would you say that he's... bananas...? I'll see myself out now.

Having played my first in person tournaments in over 18 months (20+ people each time), I can say that paper tournaments do not reflect online ones. My store being on the competitive side, we have several people with UR decks, not all of them with Monkeys, but the (vast) majority of decks are a smattering of Control, Scapeshift, Affinity, SFM decks, several Living End decks, a few tribal ones, E-Tron and Reanimator. And I'm certainly forgetting many people here. Surprisingly, not one Hammertime deck (I'm probably the one that will eventually play it). So yeah, I've been having a blast with my 5C Niv - that the needed updates from MH2 were bulk rares - and also winning a lot.

The only downside of Modern, for me at least, is the stupidly expensive Monkey (Murktide is creeping up there). Saga and the rest are - for now - at a reasonable price for a Modern staple.

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Post by cfusionpm » 3 months ago

Tzoulis wrote:
3 months ago
cfusionpm wrote:
3 months ago
nd honestly, DRC might secretly be the better card. Like Ragavan is good. Nuts even.
Would you say that he's... bananas...? I'll see myself out now.

Having played my first in person tournaments in over 18 months (20+ people each time), I can say that paper tournaments do not reflect online ones. My store being on the competitive side, we have several people with UR decks, not all of them with Monkeys, but the (vast) majority of decks are a smattering of Control, Scapeshift, Affinity, SFM decks, several Living End decks, a few tribal ones, E-Tron and Reanimator. And I'm certainly forgetting many people here. Surprisingly, not one Hammertime deck (I'm probably the one that will eventually play it). So yeah, I've been having a blast with my 5C Niv - that the needed updates from MH2 were bulk rares - and also winning a lot.

The only downside of Modern, for me at least, is the stupidly expensive Monkey (Murktide is creeping up there). Saga and the rest are - for now - at a reasonable price for a Modern staple.
Yeah, lots of similar sentiments here. Zero Hammer Time, lots and lots of UR piles (Monkey/Murktide and now Demilitch/Phoenix), lots of control (UW/Jeskai/Esper), still plenty of Titan and Tron, I faced Humans twice, a good amount of Asmo Food, and tons of random decks. Even went up against Enchantress. We definitely got lots of people sweeped up in new cards, but weirdly lacking lots of "popular" decks. I haven't seen any of many "popular" decks like several Cascade decks (Dredge or Living End), but did see random Dredge. Definitely no 4/5c Elementals, but random Kiki Chord. Just real weird meta. One thing to definitely look out for though, is lots of people main-decking Chalice of the Void. I definitely got hosed bad by that more than once.

Overall though, this feels like the best Modern has been in literally ages. Games are (mostly) fun, interactive, enjoyable, full of decisions, full of play/counterplay. Nothing seems overly oppressive and everything feels beatable with the right angle. All we need now is big paper tournaments back, because the paper meta has almost always been better than the MTGO one.

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Post by Ulka » 3 months ago

Im curious has anyone been messing with more non-meta builds atm? I've been itching to look at new directions and odder off meta builds. That said the meta is fairly new so I guess some of the new decks are technically off meta but given how expensive the monkey and the saga are, I'm just looking for ideas.
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Post by EonAon » 3 months ago

I have a personal build using Gadrak, the Crown-Scourge but, whether it works or not as its still being refined on my part. Its not totally off meta considering its using monkey and iteration

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Post by motleyslayer » 2 months ago

Ulka wrote:
3 months ago
Im curious has anyone been messing with more non-meta builds atm? I've been itching to look at new directions and odder off meta builds. That said the meta is fairly new so I guess some of the new decks are technically off meta but given how expensive the monkey and the saga are, I'm just looking for ideas.
it's not totally off meta as it's still Grixis Deaths Shadow, but I was testing a version of that with Sprite Dragon , Dreadhorde Arcanist and Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger as its threats in addition to shadow and Lurrus. Deck probably wants Dragon's Rage Channeler and monkey now. I just don't wanna shell out for a set of monkeys but I'll probably test the deck more. I can post on the weekend if anyone cares

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Post by drmarkb » 2 months ago

Real world mtg will look a LOT closer to traditional archetypes as things emerge. . UR piles are the cards people have from other formats- Monkey and co are obvious multi format all stars people will have pre ordered. Delver in Legacy, UR in Modern, etc. People had a lot of the staples in their collections pre-pandemic. Tron/Eldra Tron and Humans were big pre pandemic, so they have been decks gathering dust, not traded off. Living end and to a lesser extent cascading shenanigans have been about the block, Utopia sprawl Grull too, and of course Amulet were big pre pandemic so they are what I expect. Hammer time is largely not a strategy pre pandemic, so I don't expect to see it in numbers for a while. BR aggro, cookbook are in similar boats. People want long term bankers, not flash in the pans.
My shop locally is even more preserved. Storm, WW lifegain(probably now Heliod), Tron, Dredge, Humans - you get the drift. My other haunt is Modern on a Thursday, a bit much for 1.5hr drive, but I might make one at some point.
I am hoping to play some Modern as the pandemic recedes, the UK is getting close to all double jabbed. I have been tuning my janky brews of prison-ish hate using X mage against some of the new lists to see how they work out and catch the interactions. Needs cooperative people!

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Post by cfusionpm » 2 months ago

Due to my inability to play in paper as much as I would like (new house, todler, etc) I sold off most of my other MTGO money cards to get digital Monkeys and Baubles back. Burned through all my tix just shy of everything I needed. Will eventually get the second Fiery Islet and extra Engineered Explosives.... but for the most part, looking nearly identical to paper version. While I did have to move things at a considerable loss (God, remember when Ice-Fang was like $40tx?), but was very nice to be able to move into the deck spending $0 actual real money.

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Whether this remains "the best" or "a top deck" or whatever, I absolutely love how this plays. Monkeys have also dipped considerably (down to 108tx at point of purchase, from 175+ peak), and I want to be able to jam more games with it so I don't make the careless errors I did at FNM. Not only is this deck amazingly fun to play, the meta is as enjoyable as it has been in a very, very, very long time. And I want to make it clear that I'm putting my money where my mouth is when I say this format is great right now.
drmarkb wrote:
2 months ago
Real world mtg will look a LOT closer to traditional archetypes as things emerge. . UR piles are the cards people have from other formats- Monkey and co are obvious multi format all stars people will have pre ordered. Delver in Legacy, UR in Modern, etc. People had a lot of the staples in their collections pre-pandemic. Tron/Eldra Tron and Humans were big pre pandemic, so they have been decks gathering dust, not traded off.
This is definitely me. I've literally been picking up foils and special versions of UR staples for 6+ years. First for foiling Twin, then picking up things "on the cheap" for the many, many years UR was laughable trash, hoping that one day there would be a glorious return. People look in shock at the foil Spirebluff Canals, currently $65/ea, as if I didn't pick em up during Standard rotation several years ago for like $9.

But yeah, there's a big chunk of "I wanna play with new cards" folks, as well as "Well, this is the deck I've been playing for years" folks all making a really great place to play.

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Post by Simto » 2 months ago

One thing I think is pretty cool right now is control decks are loaded with actual hard counter spells and lots of them. I really want to scrape money together so I can have an Azorious Control deck in paper. I proxy cards right now when some of my friends play casual stuff, but I'd like to get them when I'm not broke anymore.

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Post by Tzoulis » 2 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
2 months ago
People look in shock at the foil Spirebluff Canals, currently $65/ea, as if I didn't pick em up during Standard rotation several years ago for like $9.
Lol what? $65? I bought them for like 10e for standard... I might consider selling them to get the foils from MH2 that I want.
Simto wrote:
2 months ago
One thing I think is pretty cool right now is control decks are loaded with actual hard counter spells and lots of them. I really want to scrape money together so I can have an Azorious Control deck in paper. I proxy cards right now when some of my friends play casual stuff, but I'd like to get them when I'm not broke anymore.
Esper (and to a lesser degree, Jeskai) seems better suited at the moment. Esper and Archmage's Charms are extremely good at the moment, and if you had any blue fetches from way back,, you don't really need MH2 cards, other than Prismatic Ending - Jace TMS or Cryptic don't even seem that necessary any more.

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Post by drmarkb » 2 months ago

I noticed this when x maging with a janky straight up pillow fort enchantment deck, hard counters everywhere it felt. I could land early suppression fields, the odd halo, RIP or greater auramancy in under counters early. Other stuff would randomly get through to make a board, but in the end the only way I could reliably win (win cons were limited to heliod, starfield) was to wait till I drew the obliterate, and cast it when most of their lands were down. A few games were decking affairs where the drawing decks just run out of library.

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Post by robertleva » 2 months ago

drmarkb wrote:
2 months ago
I noticed this when x maging with a janky straight up pillow fort enchantment deck, hard counters everywhere it felt. I could land early suppression fields, the odd halo, RIP or greater auramancy in under counters early. Other stuff would randomly get through to make a board, but in the end the only way I could reliably win (win cons were limited to heliod, starfield) was to wait till I drew the obliterate, and cast it when most of their lands were down. A few games were decking affairs where the drawing decks just run out of library.
Counterspell and Force of Negation make a pretty solid foundation for blue control shells these days. When countermagic rises fight it with hand disruption.
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Post by cfusionpm » 2 months ago

Force and CS are great, but Archmage's Charm is the new Cryptic Command, and likely one of the best cards to be playing in the format today.

Every single mode is insane, and I think people are not correctly valuing how back-breaking it can be to steal a 1-drop when so many threats and impactful cards are all 1 mana or less. Aside from that, end step Draw Two also always feels great and is so psychologically demoralizing to the opponent. It says: "I would rather draw extra cards than try to impact your board or keep an extra counterspell. You gonna deal with it? Or let me have massive gas into my next turn?"

I think the format is a bit too fast and hostile for Cryptic, and it's insane that its modes are often just not good enough to keep you alive. Especially for four mana. Meanwhile, Charm is criminally under-played and under-valued.

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Post by Hesperos » 2 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
2 months ago
Force and CS are great, but Archmage's Charm is the new Cryptic Command, and likely one of the best cards to be playing in the format today
Absolutely true. I never feel bad seeing a charm in my hand, and run 4 in any list (UB or esper control).

Not sure about it being undervalued or underplayed though (anymore, it definitely was up until recently) - it seems to be everywhere today, and the price of the card reflects that.

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Post by cfusionpm » 2 months ago

Hesperos wrote:
2 months ago
cfusionpm wrote:
2 months ago
Force and CS are great, but Archmage's Charm is the new Cryptic Command, and likely one of the best cards to be playing in the format today
Absolutely true. I never feel bad seeing a charm in my hand, and run 4 in any list (UB or esper control).

Not sure about it being undervalued or underplayed though (anymore, it definitely was up until recently) - it seems to be everywhere today, and the price of the card reflects that.
Yeah. I definitely may have overpaid in the early days, but I absolutely do not regret getting the foil retro versions. They are gorgeous, and I'm happy they're getting the love they deserve!

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Post by motleyslayer » 2 months ago

The retro foils look super nice, I just didn't wanna have to buy my fetches again.

It might just end up being a consensus that Archmage's Charm is just better than Cryptic Command due to 3 mana just being so much cheaper than 4 now.

I went to my first paper event in a while last night. It was like 23 people and the only deck I saw twice was fish believe it or not

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