[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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robertleva
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Post by robertleva » 3 months ago

Aazadan wrote:
3 months ago
if that's what they were collecting, that would be cool. But they aren't getting any deck list information or anything about the games themselves other than who plays who and how many are playing. They want very different information from what MTGO wants. MTGO for example doesn't care about what websites you go to or your social media information, it can't even access that stuff.
For now... Fast forward a few years and every card you play will probably have to each be scanned by your iphone to check for counterfeiting. Step 1, get everyone in the app. Step 2, expand the app.
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Post by Aazadan » 3 months ago

robertleva wrote:
3 months ago
For now... Fast forward a few years and every card you play will probably have to each be scanned by your iphone to check for counterfeiting. Step 1, get everyone in the app. Step 2, expand the app.
I wouldn't mind that either, if it didn't control trades between players. Extra authenticity for cards could be fantastic for peoples collections.

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Post by Simto » 3 months ago

Aazadan wrote:
3 months ago
It's not really about being interesting, governments don't care about that stuff. It's more about compiling marketing profiles. Untargeted ad's generate a return of about 3 to 1. Targeted ad's are closer to 10 to 1. That means it costs you more money, for as much as people claim advertising doesn't affect them, all evidence is that it does. Google AdWords takes hundreds of dollars out of your pocket every year through purchases ad's convinced you to make. And that's a fraction of all of it, on average advertisements cost you thousands per year. Don't have money for Ragavan? That's one reason why.

Apps are monetized through data because data can be used to convince you to spend money.
I'm a moron with no power that will never be happy anyway. They can datamine me away for all I care.
And to be honest, I'm pretty sure that's not a reason why I don't have money for Ragavan hehe. Being lazy and incompetent is more like it.

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Post by Aazadan » 3 months ago

Well, I'm now a believer in Dauthi Voidwalker. Played a game earlier today, I had a Voidwalker down, then my opponent had to discard a Bloodbraid Elf which went to exile with a void counter. Next turn I use the Voidwalker to cast the Bloodbraid Elf, cascade into Kolaghan's Command, return my Voidwalker to hand plus do something else, and then recast the Voidwalker. Turns out that was a pretty good turn 3.

Had to modify my earlier Mardu deck a bit, but it's a lot stronger now.

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Post by cfusionpm » 3 months ago

Lots of talk recently of the "forced rotation" MH does to the format. Personally I don't know how I feel. I actually really like the current slew of decks and the meta as a whole. But wow is it difficult to keep up with the dozens of expensive Rares and Mythics needed in order to compete in that meta.

Still waiting to see how badly I can actually want to buy Monkeys... Because that's a heck of a lot of money in an age where forced shake ups and planned obsolescence stand side by side with random ban fears. 😰

Bauble is living on borrowed time.

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Post by EonAon » 3 months ago

My personal creed on card prices overall is I dont buy cards over $50. Trade for them if possible but monkey is in the category of nope Id lose too many cards for a advantage that Id probably never use or will get banned maybe, unless it really settles down.

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Post by Simto » 3 months ago

I find it a little weird that Modern Horizon 2 giving a huge pile of playable cards and people seemingly still brewing and having fun and then BAM here's another new set guys! go buy!

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Post by robertleva » 3 months ago

Simto wrote:
3 months ago
I find it a little weird that Modern Horizon 2 giving a huge pile of playable cards and people seemingly still brewing and having fun and then BAM here's another new set guys! go buy!
AFR seems to have garbage cards with really cool mechanics. Maybe a future set will have cards that make the mechanics viable in Modern.
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Post by cfusionpm » 3 months ago

EonAon wrote:
3 months ago
My personal creed on card prices overall is I dont buy cards over $50. Trade for them if possible but monkey is in the category of nope Id lose too many cards for a advantage that Id probably never use or will get banned maybe, unless it really settles down.
The demand is EXTREMELY high. Especially here in SoCal. There are lots and lots of people who all need 4 Monkeys, so trades are hard to come by. Even online trading communities have been pretty stingy with Monkey trades since they can sell so easily for top dollar. Few people want to move them for cards when they can get good cash. :\

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Post by Tzoulis » 3 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
3 months ago
The demand is EXTREMELY high. Especially here in SoCal. There are lots and lots of people who all need 4 Monkeys, so trades are hard to come by. Even online trading communities have been pretty stingy with Monkey trades since they can sell so easily for top dollar. Few people want to move them for cards when they can get good cash.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the price of the monkeys seems to have stabilized around 60 euros, with Murktide and Saga seeing a recent upwards trend, but the rest of the staples in MH2 have been mostly declining since release. For reference, in play store opened (officially) for around 2 weeks and before that prices mostly followed the online meta, so people were still buying - if anything more people were active on MKM than ever before, they needed to throttle people and upgrade their server infrastructure.

As for the "forced rotation" aspect, since late 2014 when I started Modern, it's always been "rotating". While individual named decks were not falling out of favor, either due to bans or new printings, individual archetypes and cards have more or less remained relevant. And when talking at the FNM level, even decks without the new toys were competitive. Oftentimes, player skill and familiarity with the deck can trump new toys and can keep one competitive until they can trade up or buy in the more "efficient/effective" version of a deck.

The major downside of sets like MH2 is that the barrier of entry is trending higher. But, let's not forget that the 2019-2021ish era of Magic had some pretty egregious design mistakes that definitely hurt people's wallets and confidence.

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Post by EonAon » 3 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
3 months ago
EonAon wrote:
3 months ago
My personal creed on card prices overall is I dont buy cards over $50. Trade for them if possible but monkey is in the category of nope Id lose too many cards for a advantage that Id probably never use or will get banned maybe, unless it really settles down.
The demand is EXTREMELY high. Especially here in SoCal. There are lots and lots of people who all need 4 Monkeys, so trades are hard to come by. Even online trading communities have been pretty stingy with Monkey trades since they can sell so easily for top dollar. Few people want to move them for cards when they can get good cash. :\
Yeah thats why its in my nope not gonna category right now. I wont pay that price on a individual card, especially when I need a 4 pack of them. Too rich for my blood.

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Post by cfusionpm » 3 months ago

EonAon wrote:
3 months ago
cfusionpm wrote:
3 months ago
EonAon wrote:
3 months ago
My personal creed on card prices overall is I dont buy cards over $50. Trade for them if possible but monkey is in the category of nope Id lose too many cards for a advantage that Id probably never use or will get banned maybe, unless it really settles down.
The demand is EXTREMELY high. Especially here in SoCal. There are lots and lots of people who all need 4 Monkeys, so trades are hard to come by. Even online trading communities have been pretty stingy with Monkey trades since they can sell so easily for top dollar. Few people want to move them for cards when they can get good cash. :\
Yeah thats why its in my nope not gonna category right now. I wont pay that price on a individual card, especially when I need a 4 pack of them. Too rich for my blood.
I'm seeking to justify it by moving some of my dust-collecting money cards. If I want to be competitive, I need them. And while it's entirely possible a ban of some sort is incoming, I'm 100% confident it will be Bauble and not Monkey. And due to the universal good use of Ragavan, I can maybe justify it if I can line my pockets with sale profits.

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Post by The Fluff » 3 months ago

can imagine the sheer outrage if monkey would get banned eventually.. people paid a lot for that. This is not a cheap 6 dollar Hogaak.. which was fine to be banned.

could monkey become so widespread it had to be ban hammered? Time will tell.
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Post by drmarkb » 3 months ago

Honestly.
I hate the app on principle.
I don't play Mtgo, which is fine but I don't want to spend money on it and it is not the best for people in european time zones. I use x mage for free as a collection tracker and near goldfish tester with a few matches vs real people who I chat with whilst playing over audio.
I rock up to an FNM event of 20 people, or a larger legacy event of 30. I connect via the app. The phone goes away. Paper comes out, at the end of the round my opponent will find me for the next. The TO might tip me the wink. At unsanctioned events we call pairings the old way.
I would genuinely buy more product and be better disposed to wotc if they bought back the dci numbers.
That said, one of my local game shops is reopening with an nhs app requirement. Same principle- no phone, no play.
It is a way of disenfranchising older people and those choosing to not have phones.

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Post by drmarkb » 3 months ago

On monkeys...
I now have a delver shell- legacy delver shell- unused. Why? I don't want to loan suboptimal builds. So those Volcanics are gathering dust.
I simply won't be beaten into this brown shower for all- buy or you deck becomes strictly worse.


Yeah, I bought expensive MH2 cards- retroframe fetches and lots of them- and bought other cards that get used in multiple decks like Saga.
But monkey pirates? No.

For modern, I play off the wall untiered jank. Enduring Ideal and top decked Shark cycling? That is me. Big skred red. Me too. Ramping into acidic slime and hatebears whilst blowing up land? Me too. You get the drift. Mostly they do not make prison cards often, making modern cheap fog me. I do not expect Stasis in MH3, and nor should you.
So for modern I picked up Saga, Cursed totems and a few tolerance cards. I would be a natural Enchantress player - I own the deck in Canlander and Legacy, but it seemed like such a cookie cutter deck it did not appeal now. Push enchantress by all means, but I won't be coming running at the first sign. I have enough decks that die to Tron as it is. If modern gets going again locally I may buy in, but I have to see some action first. Till then I will be enjoying my jank.

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Post by cfusionpm » 3 months ago

drmarkb wrote:
3 months ago
On monkeys...
I now have a delver shell- legacy delver shell- unused. Why? I don't want to loan suboptimal builds. So those Volcanics are gathering dust.
I simply won't be beaten into this brown shower for all- buy or you deck becomes strictly worse.


Yeah, I bought expensive MH2 cards- retroframe fetches and lots of them- and bought other cards that get used in multiple decks like Saga.
But monkey pirates? No.
For me personally, if I think about it as trading with an intermediary (IE selling, and using profits to buy), I feel I can justify the Monke. This Delverless Delver deck is probably the coolest and best thing I have seen in a long time. I sold enough random stuff to have 3 Ragavans coming my way; hopefully before next Friday. Will see if I get to order a 4th!

But yeah, this Bauble, DRC, Murktide, Monkey, Bolt, Heat, CS, Iteration deck feels like a reincarnation of Treasure Cruise Delver decks of the past. The depth and breadth of both threats and answers make this extremely compelling, and probably the most I have felt excited for Modern in YEARS. I don't have to force myself to like draw-go UW, I don't have to relegate myself to 1-4 FNM records week after week. I can finally play something that is both good and I enjoy it.

I assume Bauble will be the ban target if this (and Bauble decks in general) remain "too good." At which point I can pivot back to a more Blue Moon control build, but retaining Ragavans and Murktides as excellent threats.

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Post by Albegas » 3 months ago

On the subject of golden monkeys, what seems weirdest to me as far as finance goes is that the EV of an MH2 set booster box is still roughly $430 dollars. Forgive me if this is more of a finance thread question, but when the EV is that much higher than the retail price, shouldn't the prices of singles be dropping more as more packs are ripped, especially since MH2 isn't a limited print run like MH1?

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Post by cfusionpm » 3 months ago

Albegas wrote:
3 months ago
On the subject of golden monkeys, what seems weirdest to me as far as finance goes is that the EV of an MH2 set booster box is still roughly $430 dollars. Forgive me if this is more of a finance thread question, but when the EV is that much higher than the retail price, shouldn't the prices of singles be dropping more as more packs are ripped, especially since MH2 isn't a limited print run like MH1?
A lot of that cost is driven by extremely high variance chase cards. And I think more and more players are deciding that risk isn't worth it due to the pain in the butt it usually is to flip cards quickly and efficiently. I know for me personally, I spent about half the price of a box to get every non-Monkey card I needed from MH2, and if you include Monkeys, it's about 2 boxes worth. And for me, it seems much more valuable to spend that money on what I need, rather than to be stuck with a bunch of random cards I'm not going to use.

I did that song and dance for MM17, EMA, IMA, MH1 and 2XM, and still have tons of "value" cards no one wants to buy just sitting in storage boxes. I guess I'm at a point that there were so few cards I cared about or wanted (Murktide, Monkey, DRC, Kaldra, and a small handful of commons like Unholy Heat), it just wasn't worth the hassle. Perhaps many others feel the same.

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Post by Arkmer » 3 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
3 months ago
I sold enough random stuff to have 3 Ragavans
Are you going for the full art foils to keep your deck as primed as possible or did you go basic?

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Post by Aazadan » 3 months ago

Have to say, playing with them a bit, I really like the red, black, green, and white creature lands. The black especially has been nice since it easily slots into things I was already playing like Jund, over the second Raging Ravine. This in turn improves the mana slightly. The green one is also quite nice since it can hit any spot on your curve and the red one creates additional bodies.
Arkmer wrote:
3 months ago
cfusionpm wrote:
3 months ago
I sold enough random stuff to have 3 Ragavans
Are you going for the full art foils to keep your deck as primed as possible or did you go basic?
Not the person you asked, but I bought 4 regular ones, non foil. I used the rest of the money to buy the full art foil versions of other cards that I think are being suppressed by Ragavan right now, such as the borderless fetchlands and even a few other mythics, and things like foil DRC. I do however think that I'll eventually want 2 playsets of Ragavan. This approach allowed me to get it now while also somewhat hedging against a ban. In a month or two, whenever I next buy cards is when I'll pull the trigger on the borderless set, should it not appear to have a ban incoming (and if it does have a ban coming, I might get them anyways, because at the moment ban speculation isn't baked into the price).
Albegas wrote:
3 months ago
On the subject of golden monkeys, what seems weirdest to me as far as finance goes is that the EV of an MH2 set booster box is still roughly $430 dollars. Forgive me if this is more of a finance thread question, but when the EV is that much higher than the retail price, shouldn't the prices of singles be dropping more as more packs are ripped, especially since MH2 isn't a limited print run like MH1?
The singles market is trash. It's really hard to sell cards, and has been for a while unless it's buy listed to a store. At which point you need nearly double the value of what it cost you to open it just to break even. For example, do the math right now on trade in bonuses. I can buy a box of MH2 right now for about $265. I will get $430 out of it, and it will buylist for abound $215 which when paired with a store credit trade in bonus will get me about $247 in value of it's all buy listed, minus shipping costs and such puts it around $220.

This really only seems to work if you want to sit on them for a while or draft and then sell the cards back. Neither of which interest me.

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Post by cfusionpm » 3 months ago

Arkmer wrote:
3 months ago
cfusionpm wrote:
3 months ago
I sold enough random stuff to have 3 Ragavans
Are you going for the full art foils to keep your deck as primed as possible or did you go basic?
Honestly... I don't like the full art version. And I really like the regular art. But I I also don't want to spend ludicrous amounts for a foil regular border, so I went pedestrian, plebeian regular copies. :rofl:
Aazadan wrote:
3 months ago
Not the person you asked, but I bought 4 regular ones, non foil. I used the rest of the money to buy the full art foil versions of other cards that I think are being suppressed by Ragavan right now, such as the borderless fetchlands and even a few other mythics, and things like foil DRC.
See, I'm SUPER on the fence on this one. I already have foil Scalding Tarns (MM17) foil Deltas, Strands, and Mires (KTK), and regular copies of every other fetch; most of which live in random Commander decks. So like... I don't NEEEED fetches, and I'm not totally sold on the extended art versions. If anything, I'd like the Secret Lair arts, but in foil. Or some other full art variant we may see in the future. I don't really care about the retro frames, and I don't feel like replacing any of my existing foils. As cheap as they are, the last time I loaded up on fetches (KTK era), I had to sit on them for literally 6 years to have them see ANY value jump. And even then, it wasn't THAT much. I just moved a bunch of Deltas and Strands. Still have 4 Strands left if anyone wants them. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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Post by The Fluff » 3 months ago

@cfusionpm

reading your post has made me aware that the Khans fetches have increased in value. So thanks.
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Post by Simto » 3 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
3 months ago
it just wasn't worth the hassle. Perhaps many others feel the same.
I stopped buying boosters a long time ago. Only do it when my mates and I play sealed, which is also a while ago since we did that last.
I just buy singles, but that's rare too these days. Last I got were 4 Japanese mystical archive Opts because it's basically the coolest Magic card I've ever seen printed and I'm a closet weeb and I want to eventually have a UW control deck.

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Post by Aazadan » 3 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
3 months ago
See, I'm SUPER on the fence on this one. I already have foil Scalding Tarns (MM17) foil Deltas, Strands, and Mires (KTK), and regular copies of every other fetch; most of which live in random Commander decks. So like... I don't NEEEED fetches, and I'm not totally sold on the extended art versions. If anything, I'd like the Secret Lair arts, but in foil. Or some other full art variant we may see in the future. I don't really care about the retro frames, and I don't feel like replacing any of my existing foils. As cheap as they are, the last time I loaded up on fetches (KTK era), I had to sit on them for literally 6 years to have them see ANY value jump. And even then, it wasn't THAT much. I just moved a bunch of Deltas and Strands. Still have 4 Strands left if anyone wants them. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I've got expeditions of several fetches, as well as shocks (don't have a complete expedition collection though). I'm shifting over to borderless enemy fetches and will do the same with allied once they're printed in that artwork, because it's my preferred one. I haven't yet decided what to do with the rest. I'm deinitely in the camp of having too many fetches right now though. Depending on the land I have between 2 and 5 playsets of each fetch. I also don't like the new expeditions, or I would have gone with that since there's a full set of 10.

However, I'm strongly considering getting rid of a lot of my more valuable stuff right now. I've got foil cradles, 2 timetwisters, a bunch of expeditions fetches, masterpiece artifacts, and so on.

I'm considering buying a house sometime in the nearish future and that stuff all turns into a nice addition to a down payment if I can offload it at a decent price. And all I would really lose in that exchange is a small amount of power in blue commander decks.

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Post by cfusionpm » 3 months ago

Aazadan wrote:
3 months ago
I'm considering buying a house sometime in the nearish future and that stuff all turns into a nice addition to a down payment if I can offload it at a decent price. And all I would really lose in that exchange is a small amount of power in blue commander decks.
Woof. Good luck with that! I was able to sneak in about 10 years ago buying my first place, a small 2bd condo and sold it about 4 months ago for a 3bd single family home we just moved to. Market is NUTS. That tiny condo sold for 254% of what I paid, and the place I bought went up 100k in the 6 months prior to my purchase (similar models are already 50-60k higher than what I paid just a month or two ago). The only way we could possibly afford it is with the massive down payment from huge profits at the condo. I genuinely do not know how ANYONE buys a house, unless they already own something to sell, or get massive outside financial help. It's absurd, but I wish you the best of luck! Liquidating some of those real money cards could definitely help, but I can tell you from experience, pretty much EVERYTHING remotely desirable (at least in SoCal) is selling for 20-60k over asking price within 48 hours of listing. And those asking prices seem to creep up 10-20k every week. Plus you are competing with multi-million/billion-dollar companies looking to buy up properties to rent or flip for more profit. And they will absolutely be able to outbid you. :?

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