[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Wraithpk
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Post by Wraithpk » 5 months ago

It was actually earlier than I thought, his first article on the topic was late 2016, when Dredge had GGT and Probe was still legal. He also did an article about BBE in December 2016, about a year before its unban, with this quote:
Specifically, players just won't accept that Bloodbraid Elf is not a serious consideration for unbanning. Despite addressing the issue several times, including in my article about banlist testing, the question just won't die. I'll be unequivocal: I believe Bloodbraid Elf should never have existed, and should not now return. At all.
He even doubled down on that in January 2018, less than a month before it actually was unbanned. Basically, David is VERY conservative about unbans, so him saying a card shouldn't be unbanned isn't very telling. If he ever says a card SHOULD be unbanned, THAT would be very telling, and mean the card should have been unbanned years ago.
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Post by Aazadan » 5 months ago

Wraithpk wrote:
5 months ago
VikingV wrote:
5 months ago
an older review of Jitte reached a different conclusion

https://modernnexus.com/underestimation ... was-jitte/
David is overly conservative in his unban opinions to the point of just being wrong pretty often. He did an article like that about SFM like a year before it actually was unbanned, and he concluded that it couldn't be unbanned because it would suppress Burn and aggro. That obviously didn't happen. If I remember right, he was adamantly against Jace being unbanned too.

Go watch the games from the Cardmarket video. I went into it thinking there's no way you can unban Jitte with SFM in the format now, but my mind changed pretty quickly.
That's because being against an unban is the default safe opinion. You don't need to make any case other than cite why it was banned. Testing for an unban will always be flawed, and most cards that are banned aren't unbanned, so by making that opinion on every card you're going to run a 90%+ success rate. Where as to argue an unban, most arguments wind up forgotten and even if a card is unbanned it almost always happens well after the articles, meaning it doesn't help your success as a writer.

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Post by stille_nacht » 5 months ago

Wraithpk wrote:
5 months ago
It was actually earlier than I thought, his first article on the topic was late 2016, when Dredge had GGT and Probe was still legal. He also did an article about BBE in December 2016, about a year before its unban, with this quote:
Specifically, players just won't accept that Bloodbraid Elf is not a serious consideration for unbanning. Despite addressing the issue several times, including in my article about banlist testing, the question just won't die. I'll be unequivocal: I believe Bloodbraid Elf should never have existed, and should not now return. At all.
He even doubled down on that in January 2018, less than a month before it actually was unbanned. Basically, David is VERY conservative about unbans, so him saying a card shouldn't be unbanned isn't very telling. If he ever says a card SHOULD be unbanned, THAT would be very telling, and mean the card should have been unbanned years ago.
On 2016 article: Dunno what your trying to imply about 2016 meta, but it was way weaker than 2018 or current, so much so that it's not that useful to bring up the article unless you dispute particular points IMO. We're somehow supposed to draw conclusions on articles written now on the basis the same author wrote one in 2016? GGT and probe were legal during 2016 it's true. Bant eldrazi running eldrazi skyspawner was also the top deck for a while. The most played deck of the world championship was Abzan midrange because it gets lingering souls and path. The second most played deck was jund running stuff like huntmaster of the fells.

In jan 2018, the more relevant article his conclusion was: "The end result will be a Modern unrecognizable from the current one. If you want such a change, you support an unban. If you prefer the current dynamic, you oppose." I mean not 100% correct but he wasn't supposing Jace also getting unbanned at the same time. It's not THAT crazy an article lol.

I guess my main point here is I don't think his takes are bad enough to ad hominem dismiss an in-depth article on jitte.

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Post by robertleva » 5 months ago

Now for some unban talk, which I know is why we're all here! I recently watched this video, and it completely changed my mind about Jitte in Modern. Not only do I think it could be safely unbanned, I'm not sure if it would even be playable in Modern. Watch the video if you don't believe me!
Been saying this for years. Jitte is perfectly safe in Modern. If legal, it will barely see any play. It's just too slow. You pay 4cc and nothing has even happened yet. THEN it requires a critter connecting with something. The entire time you are completely vulnerable to getting blown out when they remove your creature. The final payoff for all of this is only "ok". Jitte counters are still pretty good, but I just do not see it making much of an impact in modern.
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Post by Simto » 5 months ago

I guess we will find out soon enough since Modern Horizon 2 spoilers are imminent right? They could potentially reprint it in that set and be like "whoopsie it's unbanned now"

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Post by Albegas » 5 months ago

Given the long period of time between when they finalize a set and when the set actually gets released, that would be unlikely. It would mean that they decided to unban Jitte a long time ago and decided to just not follow through with that decision for at least 6 months (pretty sure the window of time between the set's finalization and the release is longer, but I can't remember how long the window is).

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Post by ThatStoryTeller » 5 months ago

I asked for a bit more perspective because Ari is on two modern focused podcasts that are excellently crafted, and has been in this format for as long as I can remember. My opinion is very biased because my pet deck would benefit greatly from the jitte unban, but I am trying to impact this discussion rationally. Ari brings up a valid point in the comparison to lava dart, so how many creatures does a combination of lava dart [from one section of the meta] and jitte [from another section of the meta] invalidate in the format.

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Post by Simto » 5 months ago

I'd still be very careful with unbanning it. It's insanely powerful and the whole game basically revolves around that card as soon as it drops. It's just very "unfun" to play against. (And yes I know that's the most vague reasoning for not liking a card, but hey, Mycosynth Lattice was banned for that reason)

That being said, I'd get one for my Eldrazi Tron immediately if it was unbanned hehe. I remember two years ago or so, Star City Games had an "unbanned" modern tournament and it was basically just Eldrazi tron with Eye of Ugin and Jitte that destroyed everything.

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Post by ThatStoryTeller » 5 months ago

Simto wrote:
5 months ago
I'd still be very careful with unbanning it. It's insanely powerful and the whole game basically revolves around that card as soon as it drops. It's just very "unfun" to play against. (And yes I know that's the most vague reasoning for not liking a card, but hey, Mycosynth Lattice was banned for that reason)

That being said, I'd get one for my Eldrazi Tron immediately if it was unbanned hehe. I remember two years ago or so, Star City Games had an "unbanned" modern tournament and it was basically just Eldrazi tron with Eye of Ugin and Jitte that destroyed everything.
I have understood that hesitancy for years, but I think if people really want the card back, we would already have put in the theory and practice work to determine that it is in safe powerlevel. Im just looking for perspectives before I hammer out a case.

What decks does jitte auto-slot into?
""Stoneforge Midrange""
Eldrazi Tron
Death & Taxes
Faeries

Those are what come to mind for me immediately. What are the others I am forgetting?

And about how easy it is to accomodate- blue decks have a tutor for it in Tribute Mage so there is a way to have it consistently up by turn 4 if blue decks needed it.

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Post by Simto » 5 months ago

I think every single midrange deck would at have it somewhere in the 75. All Creator Karn decks will almost definitely run it too.
Cards like this... I said it before, but I wish Wizard would make unbans like "Ok, we're unbanning it, BUT, it's getting banned again if it's totally broken".
I think that would be a fair way of trying it out again and hopefully not make people go nuts with selling/buying. But honestly, the market is pretty %$#% so it would go crazy the second it was announced.
Either way, I think a sort of "timed unban" would be a way to test it out in the real world.

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Post by robertleva » 5 months ago

I don't think every midrange deck could run it, but aren't we happy to help midrangey decks have a fair chance? I would be. This is a big plus to me.

I am only theorizing here but E-tron using it feels like win more to me. I will concede the point the because sure, it goes on any deck looking to connect with beaters, Maybe 2x copies here. Chalk this up for one point in the downside list, it could theoretically help Etron.

Fae using it feels like you are forcing some nostalgia onto the format. No real advantage to being strictly "fae" over just using whatever good blue critters you want like Snapcaster. I have no issue even if it does help "Fae". These types of decks are hardly oppressive compared to things like Hogaak.

DnT could use it, and could also use the boost. It's an overall plus here.
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Post by The Fluff » 5 months ago

MH2 spoilers going to start soon. Feeling excited on what they would show us.
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Post by Simto » 5 months ago

First look later today lads.

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Post by Simto » 5 months ago

Counterspell is real!!!

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Post by cfusionpm » 5 months ago

Simto wrote:
5 months ago
Counterspell is real!!!
So glad I never have to cast Mana Leak or Logic Knot again, while making functionally no change to any play patterns in 99% of cases. :grin:
Also glad I picked up a set of the Mystical Archive ones for like $5 each. I really don't like the art on ANY counterspell, but I like the pronounced yellowish coloring with the hand.

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Post by Albegas » 5 months ago

Same here. Bought 4 JP Mystical Archive Counterspells this morning and now they're all bought out on TCGPlayer. I agree 5that it won't break blue control, but it will be nice to run fewer silver bullets main deck

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Post by TheAnnihilator » 5 months ago

Control will love jamming 4 Counterspells when opponent manages to resolve Teferi, Time Raveler. :P

In all seriousness tho, I'm stoked to see Counterspell in Modern.

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Post by Simto » 5 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
5 months ago
Simto wrote:
5 months ago
Counterspell is real!!!
So glad I never have to cast Mana Leak or Logic Knot again, while making functionally no change to any play patterns in 99% of cases. :grin:
Also glad I picked up a set of the Mystical Archive ones for like $5 each. I really don't like the art on ANY counterspell, but I like the pronounced yellowish coloring with the hand.
I have a couple of really old ones from way back in '98 or something lol... but I'm using them in my Commander decks. I really want the Japanese Mystical Archive version because I'm a closet weeb and it looks cool but they cost €25 a pop here in Europe. The normal Mystical Archive one... I don't know... Something inside me just screams "the bluest card to maybe ever be printed shouldn't be orange/complementary contrast" lol... It should be blue! hehe. It still looks cool though.
I got 4 of the Jace spellbook one for whatever deck I'll use them in. I think it looks cool.
But yeah, as long as they don't print anything that kills tron, then I basically don't care about what else they print now hehe.

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Post by The Fluff » 5 months ago

counterspell is here. Welcome back old friend.
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Post by robertleva » 5 months ago

Inb4 Urza, Lord High Artificer needs to be banned. It was already borderline and recently spoiled Urza's Saga is going to put the deck into degenerate mode. So MH1 gave us degenerate graveyard strats. MH2 looks like degenerate artifact shennanigans. I guess they are being consistent in a terrible way lol. Can't wait to see what crazy planeswalker they come up with.
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Post by Tzoulis » 5 months ago

Simto wrote:
5 months ago
I have a couple of really old ones from way back in '98 or something lol... but I'm using them in my Commander decks. I really want the Japanese Mystical Archive version because I'm a closet weeb and it looks cool but they cost €25 a pop here in Europe. The normal Mystical Archive one... I don't know... Something inside me just screams "the bluest card to maybe ever be printed shouldn't be orange/complementary contrast" lol... It should be blue! hehe. It still looks cool though.
I got 4 of the Jace spellbook one for whatever deck I'll use them in. I think it looks cool.
But yeah, as long as they don't print anything that kills tron, then I basically don't care about what else they print now hehe.
I got 4 Invocation Counterspells when they were printed for around 40 each, just because I loved the art, and recently Invocations were going up, and before the official announcement they were 200 euros each and I don't wanna know where they are gonna end up.

I also bought 4 Japanese foil Mystical Archives ones at 40 each, just before the announcement, and they are at the moment 300 each, though non have sold at this price, but I can wait.

I still do not know which art I am gonna play...
robertleva wrote:
5 months ago
Inb4 Urza, Lord High Artificer needs to be banned. It was already borderline and recently spoiled Urza's Saga is going to put the deck into degenerate mode. So MH1 gave us degenerate graveyard strats. MH2 looks like degenerate artifact shennanigans. I guess they are being consistent in a terrible way lol. Can't wait to see what crazy planeswalker they come up with.
Urza's fine, as was Mox Opal, - many - other cards were not and they do not exist any more in Modern. Also, Urza's Saga is an enchantment that does not ramp you and has slight artifact strategies. While powerful, I cannot judge it yet because the set has not been revealed yet, so hold your horses on the banmania and catastrophology.

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Post by robertleva » 5 months ago

Tzoulis wrote:
5 months ago
Urza's fine, as was Mox Opal,
Yeah...you lost me here ^^. Whatever case you might make for Urza, if you evaluate Mox Opal as having been fine, well... Time will tell. Urza's Saga is free, uncounterable wish for 0, 1 cmc artifacts. The land part is the downside in that it eats a land drop. You can fetch Lotus Bloom, Pithing Needle, Tormod's Crypt / Grafdigger, Darksteel Citadel, Ratchet Bomb... The mind boggles.
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Post by Tzoulis » 5 months ago

robertleva wrote:
5 months ago
Yeah...you lost me here ^^. Whatever case you might make for Urza, if you evaluate Mox Opal as having been fine, well... Time will tell. Urza's Saga is free, uncounterable wish for 0, 1 cmc artifacts. The land part is the downside in that it eats a land drop. You can fetch Lotus Bloom, Pithing Needle, Tormod's Crypt / Grafdigger, Darksteel Citadel, Ratchet Bomb... The mind boggles.
You kinda mock me for my evaluation, and then go on an list at least 3 cards that cannot be fetched by the card. Bloom and Citadel do not have a cost and Ratchet Bomb is 2 CMC. Also, it takes 3 turns, so I am inclined to not trust your evaluations, particularly when it comes to artifact cards.

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Post by robertleva » 5 months ago

Tzoulis wrote:
5 months ago
robertleva wrote:
5 months ago
Yeah...you lost me here ^^. Whatever case you might make for Urza, if you evaluate Mox Opal as having been fine, well... Time will tell. Urza's Saga is free, uncounterable wish for 0, 1 cmc artifacts. The land part is the downside in that it eats a land drop. You can fetch Lotus Bloom, Pithing Needle, Tormod's Crypt / Grafdigger, Darksteel Citadel, Ratchet Bomb... The mind boggles.
You kinda mock me for my evaluation, and then go on an list at least 3 cards that cannot be fetched by the card. Bloom and Citadel do not have a cost and Ratchet Bomb is 2 CMC. Also, it takes 3 turns, so I am inclined to not trust your evaluations, particularly when it comes to artifact cards.
Fair enough, I read it as the new term "mana value". Still not changing my mind on Urza or Opal. Like Opal, Urza will never add anything to the format except degenerate stratgies. Believe as you like though, you might even be right considering I don't even play actively play modern any more. I am only commenting in here because it's the only active mtg thread.
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Post by Ed06288 » 5 months ago

There's still not any "normal" modern tournaments firing anywhere. Sometimes we get 6 people together with a $5 entry, but it's largely dead everywhere. Obviously we need a little more time until things get back to normal, but I'm worried competitive magic has taken a backseat to commander and casual games.

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