[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Tzoulis
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Post by Tzoulis » 8 months ago

AvalonAurora wrote:
8 months ago
I actually think Tron has a potential get parts of it banned on existing principles. Specifically, the one they used for Birthing Pod, in that it's too efficient of a way to get out things that are increasingly diverse and powerful over time, as more mostly colorless cost large cmc things are printed. Tron might not tutor like Pod did, but Pod still needed the correct cmc to tutor specific things, so the tutoring wasn't the only aspect that led to it being ban worthy just for more and better creatures arriving in the format.
Pod was at around 20% of the meta though, not 10% through 3 VERY distinct strategies: E-Tron, Gx-Tron and U-Tron. Pod was very similar through all its variants and had a huge amount of metagame prevalence. Also, Tron doesn't "inhibit future high CMC coloreless card design", in the same way that Pod does for creatures. If you disrupt Tron, they're left with 6 to 10 mana CMC threats, whereas Pod could just outgrind you with its midrange value creatures and/or get a lucky combo.
AvalonAurora wrote:
8 months ago
The question then becomes do they ban the Tron Lands themselves, end the London Mulligan, or ban enablers like Ancient Stirrings?
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Judging by how they went about with artifact strategies, they'll ban the Tron lands and wipe the archetype away.

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Post by Aazadan » 8 months ago

The interesting thing with Pod is that while it was a good deck for most of it's lifetime, it didn't really get busted towards the end as pro's figured out the best way to play it was to completely ignore the combo (this is something those who were on the deck for a while had already figured out, like Cuneo, but people like LSV popularized the strategy). Ignoring the combo was made all the easier by the introduction of Siege Rhino.

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Post by Simto » 8 months ago

Not that I have any say whatsoever, but I'm out if they ban the tron lands. I'd only play Commander from then on. I'm in the middle of building a control deck too, but Tron is my jam for sure so it would be terrible if they did.
I don't think they will, but they did kill Affinity which was a big deck too. I'd 100% prefer to scrap London mulligan and keep my cards/deck in the format.
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Post by cfusionpm » 8 months ago

No deck is safe. Ever.

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Post by Simto » 8 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
8 months ago
No deck is safe. Ever.
You're right :(

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 8 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
8 months ago
No deck is safe. Ever.
Greeksis wrote:
8 months ago
Tron is the only deck thats safe. Lol.
I feel like it's somewhere between these. While Tron has proven to be safe, ever since 2012 and through many upgrades, it could receive some new printing and need something banned.

If you're looking at it from today's perspective, then I personally feel Tron is safe for now. Now could literally change with the next set, as the next Eldrazi or colorless spells that make Thought-Knot Seer look like trash could be printed. It just depends on how likely you think that is to happen.

I know I mentioned that E Tron seems to becoming a problem, as seen at the highest percentage of the metagame on mtgoldfish. But I am seeing 3 top decks in Modern - E Tron, Prowess variants, and Mystic Sanctuary variants. So it seems to be a fairly healthy meta, compared to recent times. If those decks see more play, then their metagame percentage could get too high.

*The printings of Tron pieces in Double Masters doesn't mean anything from a play perspective - it is merely a cash grab, as many other things are. If something is printed to push Tron over the edge, then there is really nothing you get for your Double Masters purchases. Hopefully you enjoyed those cards while you could. But I wouldn't go as far as "no deck is safe, ever," even if it feels like that at times.
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Post by drmarkb » 8 months ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
8 months ago
Aazadan wrote:
8 months ago
cfusionpm wrote:
8 months ago
Well yeah, but one of those two formats can be supported by reprints
I find this argument interesting, because as we've seen with Modern, if they want to silently acknowledge collector value, then even without the reserved list, the opportunity for reprints is rather limited. The average T1 deck in Modern keeps going up in price because they can't reprint enough.
I see the opposite. prices on modern goes down and reprints are more now. look at tron after double masters, it was one of the expensive decks and soon only half. modern is now a lot cheaper it was 2 years bevore. look at liliana, snapcaster, cavern, even they don't reprinted this cards in double master, all of them are cheaper now... even fetch lands. cards they reprinted several times like noble hierarch for each green deck or engineered explosives are now free. tarmogoyf, death shadow, Bob... all important cards get down, horizon canopy and so on... which cards are really expensive now compared to to past years? reprints really helped
If I may add to this. What wotc do with reprints is conserve some equity by reprinting some key Modern cards but over a long cycle. This means that prices of reprints rise, and by the time Bob, say, is cheap, Cavern will be expensive. Then by the time Cavern is reprinted Bob will be expensive. This cycle is repeated with various staples- fetches are kept high whilst other cards get reductions. Crucible of worlds went to 10 GBP, now it is closer to 20, and in two years it will be closer to 30 or more.
Overall I have been playing the finance game for years, selling high, buying low and repeating the cycle. Modern will never be cheap to buy in- if you are pleased that cards like Bob or Crucible are much lower than they once were and think Modern is more accessible then you probably already own enemy fetches. If you are sat there sputtering that Modern is too expensive to buy in and at risk of reprints then you probably don't. 60 GBP for one Misty Rainforest tells a story.
Cavern of souls sells in the uk at 50 plus gbp. Contextually that is half a Scrub, Taiga or Plateau and a third of a UK Bayou at MP or SP Badlands. If you plan to sell out at any point your Cavern could sink to 25 GBP each (the price 4 years ago), your dual land will not sink at all and you can make money off it. A playset of Caverns is needed for decks running them meaning two Taigas at the moment.
Some once expensive Legacy cards tanked hard after reprints and stayed down, Karakas and Rishadan Port are just 10 to 13 GBP, and were once 50 each, and decks like DnT are RL free, so to an extent both formats benefit strongly from reprints. Modern decks will be the cheaper - LED and Mox D plus duals and City will mean that is always the case, but for what it offers- a format that is derided by its players where decks can be removed at a stroke by bannings (more so than Legacy), and which is no longer a premium widespread focus format, I feel Modern sadly is a poor investment for the newer player looking for something beyond Standard plus.
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Post by drmarkb » 8 months ago

Ed06288 wrote:
8 months ago
cfusionpm wrote:
8 months ago
Nothing says "fun" quite like "Turn 1: Accelerate out a permanent that prevents opponents from playing the game!"

Re: Costs - Honestly, I think there's one specific thing that makes the game "feel" expensive now, despite decks overall being generally cheaper, and many core staples being considerably cheaper than they used to be. It's the constant onslaught of new ~$50 Rares and Mythics that keep getting printed, supplanting the old cards that are dropping in value, and forcing you to either buy in or be left behind.
My games never play out like that though. The prison decks have consistency problems and most decks have counterplay. I beat one of these decks with titanshift in 3 games because I topdecked a summoner's pact to fetch reclamation sage. My opponent should have played a second blood moon off his chandra, torch of defiance +1, but wanted to ping me for 2 instead. There's still a lot of decisions to be made and the games go long. I had another long match against mono-red prison with mardu pyromancer. Not with tron though, When I play tron these kind of decks blow me out lol.

I half agree with what you're saying on bans/new cards/costs ect. Needing Uro feels bad. But a lot of decks just need minor upgrades. If you're flexible and have a lot of deck cores built, you should be able to sleeve up a 75 that's pretty good for pretty cheap.
T1 trinisphere or moon type plays never stop people playing they just slow the game down. If they get followed by say a Goblin throwing out dudes left, right and centre then yeah, rubbish game, but most true Prison decks don't do that. When you are fighting decks casting their 28 1cc spells a t1 or 2 Chalice seems fair, because frankly 28 1cc Brainstorm, Delver or bolt level spells is also unfair. In Modern those Delver decks don't exist, but then again Chalice stops nobody playing as the curve is more spread. Stopping people playing is casting RIP Helm, Grindstone Painter, Inverter and Oracle and winning on T5, or Twin and Exarch etc.That stuff stops people playing by winning, there is no comeback from it and it can happen t4 if someone taps out. Winning the game on t4 or 5 vs winning the game on t15 after a Prison deck shuts down options to zero- both could be decribed as not playing on one side. If we take it to its logical conclusion, the whole game becomes midrange v midrange.

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Post by blkdemonight » 8 months ago

If Tron ever as a deck with something it would be either to hit the enablers if they want to see Tron lands push the appeal of high cmc spells (especially colorless) for modern. If the ever feel that it's deemed unfun or problematic to deal with in a metagame context (if they feel cards meant to be used vs Tron become part of its arsenal instead ), then maybe they'll ban Tron lands.

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Post by drmarkb » 8 months ago

They won't ever ban tron. Banning a signature deck of the format won't happen. They may take an enabler, but not the lands.

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Post by Ed06288 » 8 months ago

Mono-green tron isn't even that good. I mean it's decent, but not like people are making it out to be.

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Post by cfusionpm » 8 months ago

drmarkb wrote:
8 months ago
They won't ever ban tron. Banning a signature deck of the format won't happen.
I mean, maybe not anymore...

This was literally a defining feature of Modern for years.

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Post by The Fluff » 8 months ago

don't have Tron, but it would be a problem for my two friends who use the deck if it get ban. Oh, well.. they should just deal with it when the time comes.
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Post by drmarkb » 8 months ago

The fuss they get today over Pod and Twin means Tron land bans are unlikely when they can neuter the deck in other ways- map, stirrings etc. They should have been banned in the first place, really, but are now seeded in the format. It is rare to hit the namesake card if other options are available. Obviously sometimes they are not, but if they can they ban around the edges. I am sure there will be many new FIRE (****s It Royally Everytime) cards that generate new eponymous decks and get bans, but older ones are less likely.
I have sold Tron 3 times, as I owned mono u Tron, mono G Tron and UW gifts Tron back in the day, and it is one if the few decks I thought might get a namesake ban and did not. It is a bit late now.

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Post by Simto » 8 months ago

It would hit colourless versions way harder, but I think Green Tron would still be a viable tier 1 deck due to Sylvan Scrying and Ancient Stirrings, but also London Mull hehe.

Speaking of Tron being caught in the Eye of Sauron, have you seen the supposed leaked man land card from the new Zendikar set? That looks like a card that would go straight into a Tron deck and give it a little extra range.
The questions is though... is it better than Blast Zone's spot in the deck?

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Post by cfusionpm » 8 months ago

If WOTC doesn't like a deck or "feel like they have to" they will outright destroy it.
See: Pod, Twin*, KCI, Hogaak, Looting**

If they think they can get away with "just a neuter" they will try to do that first; especially if it contains a specific card they don't like.
See: Probe, Eye of Ugin, GGT, Bloom, Bridge, Lattice

Or if they consider a card "problematic" because it "slots into too many decks."
See: Oko, Astrolabe, OUaT, DTT, Cruise

No deck is safe because if any deck becomes successful or popular enough, it can enter the spotlight to be examined for "problems." The axeman cometh, regardless of any previously established criteria, if Twitter and Reddit are mad about it and/or it does something they don't like internally.

If Tron steps on enough toes, Map could easily see a ban. But for whatever reason, it has inexplicable plot armor against any negative action, despite being one of the most polarizing and hated decks in all of Modern.

*The insightful geniuses at WOTC thought that this was actually the second category: "neuter," because they have no idea how to evaluate decks. And instead, acted vindictively against a deck they vocally hated to make sure the upcoming PT was sufficiently "shaken up."
**Looting outright destroyed what was left of Phoenix and effectively killed Hogaak-less Vengevine builds, but LULZ on having virtually no impact on Dredge.

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Post by cfusionpm » 8 months ago

Greeksis wrote:
8 months ago
Twin's banning doesnt have anything to do with shaking up the meta. The timing might had. But you have to say that.
If there wasn't a PT, twin would still be banned, but earlier tha Jan 16.
I'm not going to respond to this further, other than to say that this claim is absolutely and completely absurd, as well as totally unsupported by anything.

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Post by cfusionpm » 8 months ago

Is that the same Aaron Forsythe that said Jace, the Mind Sculptor had a grave in Modern, and that Sword of the Meek couldn't be unbanned because of Lantern Control?

I'm not going to directly call him a liar, but actions speak much louder than words. Especially *his* words.

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Post by drmarkb » 8 months ago

I used to love beating up on Tron with landkill. T2,3,4 landkill sorts it.Moon dies not do much, but lots of landkill, followed by more landkill,with Sphere from the board really hurts it. Mono u Tron was always the hardest for me.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 8 months ago

Greeksis wrote:
8 months ago
He is not the only one deciding. Others might have convinced him. Times change.

For whats its worth, I base what I say on AF's sayings. And I do believe him.

Twin was winning too much, its that simple.
Just my 2 cents here.

Aaron Forsythe AND WotC has flip flopped so much, throughout their history. But even quite a bit within the last 2 years. Just look at the VIP packs, which did not have what was advertised and players spent $80-100 for EACH of them. I used $100 of my store credit as well, leaving me only $20 after a tear the 3 weeks that paper was open. Times could certainly change and maybe Forsythe is more likely to stick with what he says. That could certainly be true. But if his past track record is any indication, he'll switch anything he wants at any time.

If any of the banned cards make money for WotC, which definitely seem like they could be the case, expect to see them in MH2 in 2021. I think that there is no other reason for WotC to unban any card. They always have newer players that see the ban list and are positive that Birthing Pod and Splinter Twin are more powerful than original Companion rules and Oko when those were legal. There is no impetus to unban something. Why unban Green Sun's Zenith? The only possible reason would be someone within WotC hoarding them and then pushing for the unban, but then it would have to pass the other 6 people.

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Post by cfusionpm » 8 months ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
8 months ago
Greeksis wrote:
8 months ago
He is not the only one deciding. Others might have convinced him. Times change.

For whats its worth, I base what I say on AF's sayings. And I do believe him.

Twin was winning too much, its that simple.
Just my 2 cents here.

Aaron Forsythe AND WotC has flip flopped so much, throughout their history.
...
Magic the Gathering: where you never say never. ;)
WOTC does what it wants, when it wants, for whatever reason it feels like. I've literally been saying this for years.

Consistency be damned, they work backwards:
--> If there is public outcry, they decide whether or not to act, then retroactively seek data to support that action.
--> If there is no public outcry, or not enough (which can be quelled by lack of data), there's no obligation to act on anything, whether data exists or not (see: UR Phoenix).

This is a recipe for inconsistency and frustration, and definitely not exclusive to silly decisions made for card games. And I can think of the exact point where this switch to public outcry happened: Just go ahead and think of the last "blindside" ban that sent ripples through the entire community in terms of shock, frustration, and lack of understanding through weak justification. Maybe the fact that "the community is good at predicting bans" is simply the circular logic that community outrage DRIVES their decisions in a post-Twin Modern.

I also find it interesting that in my original post on this particular topic, I mention 16 banned cards in 3 distinct different categories, yet the focus of replies was on a purposely-small, and relatively insignificant footnote, to justify placement in those categories. :thinking:

Lastly, speaking of Forsythe tweets, if you look at that Twitter thread, there are dozens of people dog-piling him. Angry, shocked, or confused over a decision which is widely perceived at the time as an arbitrary forced rotation to shake up the PT. :explode:

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Post by cfusionpm » 8 months ago

Greeksis wrote:
8 months ago
They mainly ban with win rates, to be consistent. Some times though, banning with win rates is not enough. Lattice, pioneer combos, second sunrise, were such cases.
So putting aside that the "data metrics" they choose to use are ones we literally have no access to, and those with access are not allowed to share, they could also make decisions on whatever they feel like doing, based on never-before-used metrics.

"Finally, we'll also be removing Teferi, Time Raveler from the environment. We've often heard the feedback that the repetitive play patterns and reduced capability for interaction that Teferi, Time Raveler can create feel oppressive and limiting. While we'd considered banning Teferi, Time Raveler in past updates, one reason we didn't was evidence that it was helping hold Wilderness Reclamation decks in check. With Wilderness Reclamation leaving the environment, we feel it's also time for the Standard metagame to move on without Teferi, Time Raveler."
--WOTC, 5 days ago.

This further reinforces my two main points:
--> They do whatever they want, when they want, for whatever reasons they want.
--> They primarily work in reaction to public outcry, then reverse engineer reasoning/justification.

I think we would be having wildly different conversations if matchup data were publicly available. Though, as I said previously, they can simply actively choose to ignore data-driven action based on established prior criteria (like they did for UR Phoenix) if there simply isn't enough public outcry. It's the secret, selective nature of this "data-driven" process that makes many of the decisions (or lack of decisions) feel so arbitrary.

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Post by cfusionpm » 8 months ago

Greeksis wrote:
8 months ago
Their last bannings were not timely; but they were spectacular and brave.
No they weren't. Players had been clamoring for exactly these bans for months, and celebrated their announcement! There was nothing "brave" about this ban. If anything, it would have been "brave" had they done this at their last scheduled B&R announcement, when they should have happened. Because the lack of action then is what sparked the outrage to have them act in an unprecedented way, banning several cards, 2 months away from rotation, completely unannounced.

That reeks of reactionary desperation.

And yet, nothing for Modern. Because not enough people are outraged enough to warrant them getting rid of T3feri or Veil or any number of obnoxious things that make for terrible gameplay and awful "not fun" experiences.

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Post by AvalonAurora » 8 months ago

Eh, I have my doubts about them banning a bunch of combos even working yet, I wouldn't be surprised if they have to do several more rounds of this, and occasional pruning of newly discovered combos or ones that enter pioneer with new cards from Standard. It goes back to control usually being the answer to combo (as part of the cycle of combo answering aggro, aggro answering control, and control answering combo) but Pioneer not having the same level of control tools, at least not together in a single deck, as the level of combos they can possibly set up with their range of sets from multiple standards. I'm not sure what the required levels are, but I fully expected pioneer to wind up combo hell when it was first released unless Wizards did something to force equivalent control deck(s) into the format with something like a pioneer horizons or select additions to the format picked piecemeal, or massive waves of combo bans until the levels were balanced, which might have also lead to needing aggro bans as well, because it was likely that aggro would also be more powerful, relatively speaking, than the level of combo control cards in the format could handle, and aggro would take over because the combo would get too weak to let control do anything to it.

Pioneer was a badly imagined format from the start, because they didn't make sure it had roughly balanced metagame fundamental tools in it. They should have waited until they changed policies in terms of control cards printed in Standard for a while, or should have not started Pioneer until they could print a control card heavy Pioneer Horizons along with it's announcement, if they didn't want the format to be combo hell for a long while, and likely require excessive bans to get the metagame under a modicum of balance.

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Post by Mtgthewary » 8 months ago

they should started it with next standard. so people would play all standard because cards are now eternal too. even me, never playing standard would start with it too. don't understand why they made so many sets starting for where standard cards not so important already. and because they use standard, they could see problems too and print cards on standard caring about Pioneer too. so answers can come on only after 1 - 2 years. it could be developing together with standard a long time

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