[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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motleyslayer
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Post by motleyslayer » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
I hope that we can agree that there is some gray area whereas interaction is concerned. There is stack interaction, with Instants or even Sorceries to prevent the opponent from doing something or stop them from stopping YOU from doing something Then there is preemptive interaction like Chalice of the Void or Blood Moon, things done to make it harder for your opponent to "do what they want to do."
To put is as succinctly as possible: Shutting a door in front of someone is interaction. Locking a door and walking away is not.

That's not at all to say that it's not a completely valid thing you can do. It's just not interaction. It's specifically a lack of interaction.

Either way I will be happy to not have to discuss this any further after 8am tomorrow morning. :party: I know Twin isn't getting unbanned, because WOTC just simply hates the card, but I will be doing a very big happy dance if by some miracle it is.
I think that would take some huge miracle for them to unban twin anytime soon. The only way I can see that happening is if they ban 3feri at the same time. 3feri just makes the combo MUCH harder to interact with IMO

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cfusionpm
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

T3feri would also be ridiculously powerful against it. In fact, UW in general today, with no changes, would rip Twin to pieces. Just imagine if they threw in a few Spellskites as well?

I think the fear for Twin is completely unfounded.

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Post by motleyslayer » 1 year ago

forcing the deck to play at sorcery speed does hurt the deck a lot. Maybe I'm giving the deck more fear than I should but I doubt it'll get unbanned anytime soon

However, I could see a world where pod is unbanned

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Post by th33l3x » 1 year ago

people please start collapsing your endless verbal blurbs and quotes into spoilers. We're not %$#% animals, we live in a society - Jim Jefferies

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
I am hoping for Uro- but I am selfish- I want some for Legacy, and don't want to pay the current price. In terms of game play it does not matter to me, I don't think Modern needs a ban- it needs to have a mission statement so that we don't all sit here wanting to play such vastly different MTG.
I was originally hoping Uro, also for selfish reasons. I'm rather bitter over Mox Opal getting banned when I thought Astrolabe should have been the ban back then too. Banning Astrolabe now means Mox died for nothing. That said, the more I think about it the more I realize that not banning Astrolabe will lead to more bans in the future. In the interests of making the ban list as small as possible I think it just needs to be Astrolabe.

The format might have a few other problems too, but just removing Astrolabe probably gets a better baseline to evaluate from.

As far as unbans go, I think WotC should consider some of the safer ones alongside a big ban shakeup if for no other reason than an apology. Which those should be, I'm not sure, and don't really want to get into at the moment but I wouldn't mind seeing one.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

Said it once a few pages back, restating it:

Prediction for 7/13 is
Ban - astrolabe
Unban - twin

What i want is
Ban - astrolabe
Unban - Twin and bridge from below.

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Post by TheAnnihilator » 1 year ago

metalmusic_4 wrote:
1 year ago
Said it once a few pages back, restating it:

Prediction for 7/13 is
Ban - astrolabe
Unban - twin


What i want is
Ban - astrolabe
Unban - Twin and bridge from below.
In all honesty, the part in bold would be a dream come true for me. I don't want to set myself up to be dissapointed, but I honestly never thought anyone would seriously predict Twin would get an unban. :)

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

TheAnnihilator wrote:
1 year ago
metalmusic_4 wrote:
1 year ago
Said it once a few pages back, restating it:

Prediction for 7/13 is
Ban - astrolabe
Unban - twin


What i want is
Ban - astrolabe
Unban - Twin and bridge from below.
In all honesty, the part in bold would be a dream come true for me. I don't want to set myself up to be dissapointed, but I honestly never thought anyone would seriously predict Twin would get an unban. :)
I mean, if there's a time to test it and find out, it's when nobody is playing in paper and there are no GPs or PTs to "ruin." :laugh:

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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

motleyslayer wrote:
1 year ago
forcing the deck to play at sorcery speed does hurt the deck a lot. Maybe I'm giving the deck more fear than I should but I doubt it'll get unbanned anytime soon

However, I could see a world where pod is unbanned
Not trying to single you out or anything, but I think this highlights some of the irrational fear-mongering that goes on about Twin.

Pod would be waaay better than Twin right now. First of all, those two decks existed alongside each other for about 3.5 years, and outside the very beginning of the format, Pod was always better than Twin. It would still be miles better than Twin today. Pod reliably combo-kills on turn 3, needing only the pod itself and a mana dork, thanks to the printing of Corridor Monitor and Renegade Rallier. And even if you interact with them and stop them from comboing, they have value chains they can grind you out with.
Modern
ubr Grixis Shadow ubr
uwg Bant Stoneblade uwg
gbr Jund gbr

Pioneer
urIzzet Phoenixur
rMono-Red Aggror
uwAzorius Controluw

Commander
bg Meren of Clan Nel Toth bg

metalmusic_4
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

TheAnnihilator wrote:
1 year ago
metalmusic_4 wrote:
1 year ago
Said it once a few pages back, restating it:

Prediction for 7/13 is
Ban - astrolabe
Unban - twin


What i want is
Ban - astrolabe
Unban - Twin and bridge from below.
In all honesty, the part in bold would be a dream come true for me. I don't want to set myself up to be dissapointed, but I honestly never thought anyone would seriously predict Twin would get an unban. :)
It may not turn out to be twin, but I strongly expect an unban. They seem to do these apology style unbans alot. After eldrazi they unbanned SotM and AV. After hogaak they unbanned SFM. After companions......... we'll find out tomorrow.

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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

They tend to unban something on 1 to 1.5 year intervals like clockwork. It's been 11 months since the SFM unban, which would tie for the shortest time between unbans if they unban something tomorrow, but this is somewhat of an unprecedented time in the game, with all the bans we've been having. We've had 7 cards banned in the past year, and that number will almost certainly be increasing tomorrow.
Modern
ubr Grixis Shadow ubr
uwg Bant Stoneblade uwg
gbr Jund gbr

Pioneer
urIzzet Phoenixur
rMono-Red Aggror
uwAzorius Controluw

Commander
bg Meren of Clan Nel Toth bg

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Simto
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Post by Simto » 1 year ago

I hope today's bans and potential unbans will make people happy :)

I for one just want to say I really miss playing modern FNMs :( I got my ass handed to me 90% of the time, but I miss playing my favourite format.
My local store opened up to store play again little over a month ago, but I don't feel ready to sit in close proximity to strangers in a rank and sweaty basement hehe.
Last edited by Simto 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

My lgs opened up about that same time. The same 8 or so edh players hang out and play there but no events are happening. I Go buy stuff, but I don't stay.

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

My prediction:

Unban: Nothing (GSZ, artifact lands would be the safest options, a case could be made for Birthing Pod)

Ban: Astrolabe, Veil of Summer

Pioneer: Inverter is banned

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Post by Albegas » 1 year ago

https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... 2020-07-13

Astrolabe banned, no unbans. Was really hoping for an unban at least.

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Post by TheAnnihilator » 1 year ago

Albegas wrote:
1 year ago
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... 2020-07-13

Astrolabe banned, no unbans. Was really hoping for an unban at least.
And Veil is still untouched. :(

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Nothing too revolutionary in the B&R for Modern. Aatrolabe banned primarily for supporting decks with broad 55%+ win rates. No other Modern cards even mentioned. Biggest takeaway is that 55%+ MWP continues to be a theoretical speed limit for top performing decks across all formats. This is that notion of a secret, not so secret best deck we've discussed before. Also notable are some prevalence concerns around AA without specific numbers.

I feel truly bad for Pioneer and Standard fans. Wizards even acknowledged the community discontent about these formats but claims the MTGO win rates don't align with the dissatisfaction. Yikes. This will result in a significant reduction in play for both formats, especially Pioneer which continues to see MTGO events not fire. Excitement of an Oath unban will not offset the current issues. Legacy gets a similar mention with AA but again no action.

Biggest format winner is Historic. Format was just as unhealthy as we thought (the Nexus and Gruul stats in the B&R are laughable), but they addressed both issues effectively. Expect Historic to be THE format of choice for most spikes for the nearish future.
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Trumpet of sadness. And no indication that anything will change any time soon. Typical Wizards.

Inverter is fine in Pioneer, but f**k Twin, AMIRITE?
ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Wizards even acknowledged the community discontent about these formats but claims the MTGO win rates don't align with the dissatisfaction. Yikes.
Yikes indeed. It's almost like they have no idea how to evaluate formats, and then blindly landed on MWP (something we literally cannot track). What an excellent, clear, meaningful metric to decide whether or not to destroy decks or fix glaring mistakes.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
I feel truly bad for Pioneer and Standard fans. Wizards even acknowledged the community discontent about these formats but claims the MTGO win rates don't align with the dissatisfaction. Yikes. This will result in a significant reduction in play for both formats, especially Pioneer which continues to see MTGO events not fire. Excitement of an Oath unban will not offset the current issues. Legacy gets a similar mention with AA but again no action.
The silver lining of this, is that Modern doesn't end up being displaced. There is of course the issue of getting Pioneer into Arena compared to Modern, but this could help in not splitting the formats and keeping people in Modern for FNM's and MTGO.
Biggest format winner is Historic. Format was just as unhealthy as we thought (the Nexus and Gruul stats in the B&R are laughable), but they addressed both issues effectively. Expect Historic to be THE format of choice for most spikes for the nearish future.
The more I look at it, the more I think Historic is going to be the non rotating Arena format rather than Pioneer or Modern. With a possibility that Historic eventually becomes Modern with most of the popular cards minus the degenerate ones.

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Post by Simto » 1 year ago

I guess it's time to buy those Veil of Summer I've been needing for my sideboard since it didn't get banned :) Would have been nice if they had talked a bit more about Modern, but hey.... let's see where the meta goes now.

Sad to not see more action being taken in Pioneer since I really like that format too. Much prefer it to Historic.

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Post by Spsiegel1987 » 1 year ago

A little surprises veil isnt even mentioned. I only thought veil had a 50 percent chance of being banned.

The pioneer announcement is disastrous. I think wotc is actively sabotaging the format and focusing their time and resources on historic. Pioneer will be left for dead for historic. Just make historic legal in paper after covid isnt in effect and apologize for pioneering not working.

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

From the original Urza deck 5 cards have been banned now: OUaT, Oko, Astrolabe, Mox, Lattice

Lets sink that in LOL

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Pioneer is poorly served, they basically are tellingthe crowd that they are wrong. Same deal with Legacy, where labe hurts the things that make the format ten times better than Modern- Blood Moon and Wasteland being respected meaning good stuff.dec gets to be predated upon.

Dimir inverter would be fine in a world with meddling mage effects main board. A plus B combos can be fine in Legacy, but in Modern, and Pioneer especially they cannot be handled efficiently.

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Post by Guardman » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Nothing too revolutionary in the B&R for Modern. Aatrolabe banned primarily for supporting decks with broad 55%+ win rates. No other Modern cards even mentioned. Biggest takeaway is that 55%+ MWP continues to be a theoretical speed limit for top performing decks across all formats. This is that notion of a secret, not so secret best deck we've discussed before. Also notable are some prevalence concerns around AA without specific numbers.
The best thing about this ban to me is that I can play Blood Moon decks again. Outside of the Tron match-up, Blood Moon has just felt like such a subpar card in so many match-ups lately because without being able to hurt greedy mana-bases it is just a worse Blood Sun.
ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
I feel truly bad for Pioneer and Standard fans. Wizards even acknowledged the community discontent about these formats but claims the MTGO win rates don't align with the dissatisfaction. Yikes. This will result in a significant reduction in play for both formats, especially Pioneer which continues to see MTGO events not fire. Excitement of an Oath unban will not offset the current issues. Legacy gets a similar mention with AA but again no action.
Pioneer is probably in the worst place of every format. The top-3 decks are all combo decks, which is never healthy. I don't even know what Oath of Nissa will do for the format. My personal opinion is that it will do little to topple combo, and then once the trinity of Inverter of Truth/Underworld Breach/Heliod, Sun-Crowned is banned/nerfed, it will go back to being a problem card. Or the format dies. Either, or.

Standard has had a ramp/free mana problem for over a year. It is was way too easy to cheat on mana. And now that Fires of Invention is banned it opened up the room for ramp, which has always been there. The biggest problem with ramp is the fact that not only the ramp is efficient in Growth Spiral, but it also includes game-ending threats in Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath and Nissa, Who Shakes the World. I mean just look what Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath is doing in modern and it is similar in standard.

Ironically, I was just talking to a friend about what ramp should look like without being oppressive, and I said Tron back in Ravnica/Kamigawa standard. The ramp had a cost of playing (Tron lands being colorless). It could be very fast (Turn 3 Tron with an Izzet Signet), but was usually more of a midrange deck as it needed to draw into Tron. Also it sometimes just had bad draws where it drew its payoffs, but not the stuff to support it (or in non-Izzet-Tron decks, drawing all ramp or all payoffs). All these points gave it a lot more variance. As much as I hate Tron in Modern, it at least had a problem (before the London Mulligan at least) where it either draws all payoffs or all ramp sometimes, which is what is needed in a healthy ramp deck. Plus, while Izzet-Tron was the best Tron deck, it actually had a lot of flavors, such as Simic-Tron, Boros-Tron, and Mono-White Tron... That got a little rambling at the end there.
ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Biggest format winner is Historic. Format was just as unhealthy as we thought (the Nexus and Gruul stats in the B&R are laughable), but they addressed both issues effectively. Expect Historic to be THE format of choice for most spikes for the nearish future.
I agree that I think it is the healthiest format (but let's see how we feel in a week after Jumpstart gets added), which is why it's my most played constructed format right now. My only complaint is that Field of the Dead should be banned. It, in the ramp deck gives them too good of a mid-range plan A that is hard to interact with, while also giving them time to ramp to things like Ugin, the Spirit Dragon and Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger.

Probably a bit too much in this post not about Modern, but... eh.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

I don't know how it ended up that I had zero expectations for this announcement, and still ended up disappointed. It's like the most low-effort thing they could have possibly done across the board. And they very clearly care about no format other than Historic. A fake format that doesn't even exist in paper.

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