[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

th33l3x
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Post by th33l3x » 10 months ago

@cfusionpm Here's the list. Grixis Delver.

The way I see it, the challenge (and also the idea, for god's sakes) with companions was to make their deck building limitations roughly balance out having an 8th card every game. But the cards were so absurdely powerful and efficient that this question was a complete no-brainer for most decks.

Maybe this change balances things out a bit! Grixis Delver can still run Lurrus for example and feels viable, but the boring, repetitive Lurrus-Bauble play is 100% fixed with this change. Rx Prowess may well go back to running Reveler over Lurrus.

I'm really interested to se where this goes tbh.

Yorion feels really bad in the few matches I have faced him.

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Post by Simto » 10 months ago

th33l3x wrote:
10 months ago
cfusionpm Here's the list. Grixis Delver.

The way I see it, the challenge (and also the idea, for god's sakes) with companions was to make their deck building limitations roughly balance out having an 8th card every game. But the cards were so absurdely powerful and efficient that this question was a complete no-brainer for most decks.

Maybe this change balances things out a bit! Grixis Delver can still run Lurrus for example and feels viable, but the boring, repetitive Lurrus-Bauble play is 100% fixed with this change. Rx Prowess may well go back to running Reveler over Lurrus.

I'm really interested to se where this goes tbh.

Yorion feels really bad in the few matches I have faced him.
That deck looks like a lot of fun to play! Looks very interactive.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 10 months ago

True-Name Nemesis wrote:
10 months ago
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
10 months ago
The only people that think Legacy is just all turn 1 combos is someone who has never or barely ever actually played the format. Legacy has some really long and thought out games that could end very quickly if someone had made an egregious mistake. Counter wars with Flusterstorm can be tough to navigate, even in today's Veil meta.
Which is the implication that fast combo decks are a large percentage of the meta. Which by the all stats provided, they are clearly not. If I misunderstood what you implied in context, feel free to correct me.

Turn 3 is the standard combo turn in Legacy, and while the combo decks in Legacy are strong and resilient, the top tier combo decks with the exception of BR reanimator tend to not be able to go off both safely and consistently before turn 3 unless you are 100% certain that it's safe based on game knowledge. You would know this if you have played Legacy as you claimed.

If your argument was that combo as a macro-archetype has the biggest percentage, then yes agreed no arguments there. But that's not the context of what I quoted. Again, if I misunderstood here, feel free to correct me.

So for me 'fast' is defined as earlier than turn 3. This is where I should have done better at defining the parameters and where we may have some confusion.

That aside, lumping all the combo decks together like you did is being disingenuous seeing as how many of the combo decks in the list are not 'fast' by Legacy standards, or if they are, they are extremely fragile.

I stand by what I said, Fast combo is NOT a large (debatable, maybe 20% is considered large to you) OR the biggest percentage (not debatable) of the Legacy Meta.

Legacy has many problems brought about by the design mistakes of 19/20, and has also had many issues throughout the years, but fast combo decks is not one of them.
No, I just mean that people overestimate stuff. People who don't play or know Legacy talk about it too much, in my opinion. It's like when people were saying that Summer Bloom Amulet wins on turn 1, I was thinking, "who wins on turn 1?" Because it certainly wasn't me.

I am biased towards Legacy. Legacy is great to me, only semi ruined by newer printings. Just an AA ban would do a lot! Other than that, it just sucks that the price makes it not accessible so that many people could see what a lovely format it really is.
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Post by idSurge » 10 months ago

There was a clip of it winning on Turn 2, on Camera I believe. Which is when I knew it was going to eat a ban.
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Post by cfusionpm » 10 months ago

idSurge wrote:
10 months ago
There was a clip of it winning on Turn 2, on Camera I believe. Which is when I knew it was going to eat a ban.
*clears throat*




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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 10 months ago

idSurge wrote:
10 months ago
There was a clip of it winning on Turn 2, on Camera I believe. Which is when I knew it was going to eat a ban.
There are many decks that have won on turn 2. I won on turn 2 SEVEN times in a 6 round FNM, going 5-1 (lost the last round instead of IDing, 1-2). I'm 100% positive if enough people played Grishoalbrand at GPs, it would have had the same press as Amulet. But I digress. I'm over it and I can positively say that Amulet is way better nowadays because of all the "enhancements," lol.

@cfusionpm - those weren't turn 2 wins. One of those games took forever. Also fwiw, even the glacially slow Kiki-Chord can win on turn 4 easily. Bop into turn 3 Resto Angel into turn 4 Kiki-Jiki or Chord for it if enough spam has been put on the board. And the deck has better defensive cogs - props to Jeff Hoogland for making the finals of an SCG Open with it.

Also any winner of any tournament could say the same thing. He was on fire the whole tournament. Twin winners could have said it. Josh McClain could have said it about Birthing Pod. It was really bad press for the deck. I often wonder if Bob Huang, who was one of the few great Grishoalbrand players, won a GP with Grishoalbrand, what would have been banned. I doubt it would be Looting; it probably would have been Simian Spirit Guide, but how would that have shaped Modern until today?
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Post by BeneTleilax » 10 months ago

modern is %$#%
Warning for spamming/format-bashing.
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Post by cfusionpm » 10 months ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
10 months ago
cfusionpm - those weren't turn 2 wins. One of those games took forever. Also fwiw, even the glacially slow Kiki-Chord can win on turn 4 easily. Bop into turn 3 Resto Angel into turn 4 Kiki-Jiki or Chord for it if enough spam has been put on the board. And the deck has better defensive cogs - props to Jeff Hoogland for making the finals of an SCG Open with it.
Must have been a different match. It was on camera multiple times with two skilled players either outright winning on T2/3 or putting multiple Titans in play for an insurmountable advantage by then. The deck was nuts.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 10 months ago

BeneTleilax wrote:
10 months ago
modern is %$#%
Did you see the new Companion rule change? It has gotten at least a little better after that. :)
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
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Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Yawmoth Chord, Uroza
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 10 months ago

Greeksis wrote:
10 months ago
I wanted to report the post and instead, I liked it. Oh well :P

I mean, the deck could win on Turn 2, for sure. My buddy had killed me on our FNM on turn 1, followed by turn 2. He was on Grishoalbrand and I was on something controlly. I know it killed a lot pre-turn 4 and I am not disputing that. I am disputing that it won a lot on turn 2!
Faithless Looting, 2 land, Goryo's Vengeance, and Griselbrand, up to 2 of those cards can be drawn after Looting. Amulet takes land, Amulet X 2, Karoo, Summer Bloom, and Primeval Titan/Summoner's Pact. I'm not sure what the exact percentages are or were, but it's not inconceivable to think that they are pretty close. You need 2 Amulet for the turn 2 kill to give +4/+0 and haste from double Slayers' Stronghold and Vesuva on Boros Garrison for double strike with Sunhome, Fortress of the Legion. Either that or Hive Mind + Summoner's Pact (Pact of Negation needs a valid target).

My favorite one with Griselbrand was on the draw, mulligan to 4, keep on Simian Spirit Guide, Griselbrand, Goryo's Vengeance, Faithless Looting at a Modern Staples Tournament. He suspends a Search for Tomorrow. I draw Blood Crypt and Loot away the Griselbrand. He goes turn 2 Farseek. I don't draw a 2nd land, so I use the SSG to go off, drawing my whole deck, putting Borborygmos Enraged into play to toss some lands at the fella. He says, "wow, that's some deck!" I'm just laughing inside on how lucky I got, :grin: I ended up scooping in the finals to split the prize 50/50. It was a long day and I was 55 mi. from home. Ponza was the deck I scooped to; pretty funny to see Ponza make it to the finals back then, lol.
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Post by Aazadan » 10 months ago

th33l3x wrote:
10 months ago
cfusionpm Here's the list. Grixis Delver.
I'm kind of interested in exploring some of these strategies again once paper opens back up.

I'm not really sure that deck route is how I want to go, but I do think Sprite Dragon is a good call.

I'm personally thinking some sort of Aether Vial fueled Faeries (colors TBD, but probably not playing the Dragon) because Vial is enough to make Spellstutter Sprite viable, or a RUG "Delver" list leveraging Dragon alongside the suspend rhinos and some other spells matter creatures.

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Post by drmarkb » 10 months ago

Tzoulis wrote:
10 months ago
True-Name Nemesis Won't quote the whole post for the sake of saving space.

The context of my initial post was about "degeneracy" in Modern versus Legacy and Vintage, so my responses were in that context.

In Legacy ALL combo decks can win on T1, with the exception of Infect, Elves and Cloudpost Ramp. T3 might be more common, but not for lack of ability. Still, plenty -if not all of them- can win through disruption , even in those first couple of turns. In Modern the T4 rule isn't about winning through disruption, rather consistent ability to win by T4. True, how prone you are to disruption matters, but not as mach as consistency.

By that metric, Legacy is far worse, since it not only has more combo decks, but also (most of) these can win on T1-T2 and with their own disruption/protection. OmniTell plays FoW, Storm, Reanimator, Hogaak/Dredge and Depths play discard spells, Infect plays both counters and protection. And all of them can win through disruption, either by stripping it away or brute forcing, in the first few turns. For a brief time there was Breach and Gyruda, but they're gone now.

Then there's Eldrazi.

I have no problem with the above- these decks have the right to exist after all, but to say that Modern is worse than Legacy is absurd. Yes Modern is more linear than Legacy, but Legacy has been masking its "degeneracy" by not being as iterated as Modern as a format, by having huge card availability issues and by having almost no competitive events going for it.
True-Name Nemesis wrote:
10 months ago
That aside, lumping all the combo decks together like you did is being disingenuous seeing as how many of the combo decks in the list are not 'fast' by Legacy standards, or if they are, they are extremely fragile.
I've said my piece about this above, but again all of the combo decks in the breakdown by mtgtop8 can win by T2, that is fast -even by your definition. Some are more consistent, some can even win on T1.
For me Legacy is a T2 format, since that's the turn combo decks must be able to win to pre-empt significant disruption by other decks (be that counters, discard, chalice or what have you).

Legacy has it worse when compared to Modern in what category people have often claimed to be "degenerate", which is my point and is what started this particular argument.
drmarkb wrote:
10 months ago
On Legacy, fast combo is not fast very often, unless paired against other fast combo. Otherwise it is slowed down by all the prison or control elements in aggro and fair decks, trying to stick a show and tell or whatever. Source- I own a lot of Legacy decks. I play Legacy a lot, and most of my matches vs fast combo go near to time.....
From my experience, Combo or other prison decks are not as prevalent in paper because people at my store more ore less Rule 0 them out, so the meta (of 8 people...) is mostly interactive magic, or random decks people decide to bring and a die hard Storm player. Which kinda supports my point of not truly seeing the real best decks in Legacy.
Combo tends to always be present wherever I have played, ditto prison. The main issue is the UK, like Japan's KMC, tends to be less blue than the US.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 10 months ago

Remembering how powerful amulet titan with summer bloom was, make me remember a win I had with it. I was playing against a noob on a budget mono red deck at our local modern event when I got a turn 2 hive mind kill game 1, and a virtual win on turn 2 the next game. (I got to attack with a titan turn two but had to wait a bit longer to get his life total to zero.)
That guy never came to the shop again, pretty sure he quit the game entirely. I think of that moment when I think of over powered decks. Summer bloom was the appropriate nerf ban, titan or amulet would obviously kill it out right while hive mind would not have set it back far enough.
I try to compare other bans to this ban which I consider sucessful on both necessity and deck weakening. Git prob fits this and was successful, oko from the snow decks and eye of ugin fit this too. KCI killed the deck, so did twin, second sunrise, wild necatl, mox opal killed affinity and many others. But the failed bans like BBE & bridge from below are the most egregious imo. Bans that a large enough percentage of people feel were unnessesary like twin, SFM or preordain and some others can also be tough sells.
But again, bloom titan is a great ban success story because it needed a ban badly and survived in a weakened but still competitive way.

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Post by th33l3x » 10 months ago

I'm watching "Dark" right now and I'd please like a time machine to look 3 weeks into the future and tell me how the meta shakes out...

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 10 months ago

metalmusic_4 wrote:
10 months ago
Remembering how powerful amulet titan with summer bloom was, make me remember a win I had with it. I was playing against a noob on a budget mono red deck at our local modern event when I got a turn 2 hive mind kill game 1, and a virtual win on turn 2 the next game. (I got to attack with a titan turn two but had to wait a bit longer to get his life total to zero.)
That guy never came to the shop again, pretty sure he quit the game entirely. I think of that moment when I think of over powered decks. Summer bloom was the appropriate nerf ban, titan or amulet would obviously kill it out right while hive mind would not have set it back far enough.
I try to compare other bans to this ban which I consider sucessful on both necessity and deck weakening. Git prob fits this and was successful, oko from the snow decks and eye of ugin fit this too. KCI killed the deck, so did twin, second sunrise, wild necatl, mox opal killed affinity and many others. But the failed bans like BBE & bridge from below are the most egregious imo. Bans that a large enough percentage of people feel were unnessesary like twin, SFM or preordain and some others can also be tough sells.
But again, bloom titan is a great ban success story because it needed a ban badly and survived in a weakened but still competitive way.
You are completely correct and I had a similar situation with a new guy (that had a super old deck box; probably had just come back to mtg) playing some odd BR Aggro deck. He had to face me in Round 1 two out of the three FNMs I saw him and in Round 2 in the other. Short story - played Hive Mind in games I was "losing" and he never came back. I actually did feel a bit badly about that, but then I don't understand how the pairings that are random work like that.

I agree with you that bans like KCI, Twin, Second Sunrise, Wild Nacatl, and Mox Opal leave a bit more room to argue because they killed decks. And then there were unnecessary bans. While I do agree with @ktkenshinx that most bans could be foreseen, there are times where I'm just baffled at the choices. Even in this current ban announcement (disclaimer; I don't play Historic), I assumed Winota would be banned. I thought there would be more bans in Standard, like Wilderness Reclamation as well. But I was wrong. It was a very short ban list of 2 cards in both formats. How do they determine these things?

I don't know if I was misunderstood, but I didn't say that Summer Bloom was an incorrect ban. I said that it sucked for me and I do think that many people overreacted about the card, especially when they heard of some of the plays by Steven Speck, who made his first and only Pro Tour before being banned for cupping the original 7 card hand that he wanted. Yes, at that time 4 years ago, I WAS mad and I did say the ban was incorrect. But things change. I realize it was said out of spite. It was a good ban. They may have even wanted to go further, but I would have been even more pissed.
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Post by idSurge » 10 months ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
10 months ago
Even in this current ban announcement (disclaimer; I don't play Historic), I assumed Winota would be banned. I thought there would be more bans in Standard, like Wilderness Reclamation as well. But I was wrong. It was a very short ban list of 2 cards in both formats. How do they determine these things?
You seem to still be of the mind that ban's are done based on logic, and impartiality.

They are not. Winota 100% should be banned. There is absolutely no argument (in Historic) that it should not be.

Problem is, Wizards is not in the business of crafting healthy formats which encourage competitive diversity. They simply are not.

They are in the business of designing flashy explosive cards that allow people to 'go off' with entertaining clips from Twitch.

They dont have the stones to ban everything that should be banned, and so its 'kill off this deck' and then in a few weeks, it will be 'kill off this deck'.

I'll just keep drawing my deck with Song and Steamkin for the laughs and the coins every day, and then move on.
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Post by cfusionpm » 10 months ago

idSurge wrote:
10 months ago
I'll just keep drawing my deck with Song and Steamkin for the laughs and the coins every day, and then move on.
And I'll keep playing my Bant Snow like a plebeian, while people continue to maindeck multiple copies of Relic and Spellbomb. :hmm:

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 10 months ago

idSurge wrote:
10 months ago
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
10 months ago
Even in this current ban announcement (disclaimer; I don't play Historic), I assumed Winota would be banned. I thought there would be more bans in Standard, like Wilderness Reclamation as well. But I was wrong. It was a very short ban list of 2 cards in both formats. How do they determine these things?
You seem to still be of the mind that ban's are done based on logic, and impartiality.

They are not. Winota 100% should be banned. There is absolutely no argument (in Historic) that it should not be.

Problem is, Wizards is not in the business of crafting healthy formats which encourage competitive diversity. They simply are not.

They are in the business of designing flashy explosive cards that allow people to 'go off' with entertaining clips from Twitch.

They dont have the stones to ban everything that should be banned, and so its 'kill off this deck' and then in a few weeks, it will be 'kill off this deck'.

I'll just keep drawing my deck with Song and Steamkin for the laughs and the coins every day, and then move on.
Well, previously I actually thought that many bans are random. But @ktkenshinx has said in the past that all of Modern's bans could have been predicted except Twin. I feel like there's some space between those where it is very likely to be true.

I told people here before that Modern could have been vastly different, based on different bans. No, Bridge from Below not getting banned wouldn't have changed anything. But, Modern has been shaped by the bans, incorrect or not (Sword of the Meek not being legal for many years, BBE taking the fall for DRS, and more). New printings have also shaped Modern. I'm not denying that, obviously someone can point to 2019-2020, but it's more than that. If Mox Opal got banned many years ago, if Preordain was not banned when Ponder was. If Seething Song was not added to the banlist with Bloodbraid Elf because Storm was played too much online (due to being around 50 tix from what I heard). Stoneforge Mystic coming off earlier. Green Sun's Zenith coming off, etc.
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Post by idSurge » 10 months ago

I didnt say random. The point however is all of what SHOULD be banned, is not banned. They will 'do something' to appease the mob, but they very very rarely, will do all of what they should.

That is why the Looting ban was to me, the bravest (comical term considering Real Life right now) thing they have done in Modern. It wasnt what they HAD to do, but it was a good thing to do.

The banlist is not logical.
They could do more in other formats, and they know it dont kid yourself, but to hit everything that needs it, would shatter confidence.
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Post by AvalonAurora » 10 months ago

Greeksis wrote:
10 months ago
Did someone predict gitaxian probe? I am sure the answer is no, but I would be happy to see a source on that.
I don't remember for probe specifically, but there was some talk of both 'free' cantrips (like probe, Street Wraith, Mishra's Bauble and Manamorphose) and the spells that are entirely phyrexian mana in cost (like probe and Mutagenic Growth) as being potential eventual ban targets for various reasons related to issues of 'free' spells and things like cast triggers in the long run. I'm pretty sure the timing and probe in specific was a surprise for anyone without WotC's data.

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Post by True-Name Nemesis » 10 months ago

They finally decided to put Containment Priest in Modern. About a year late.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 10 months ago

M21 looking sweet so far. Good reprints to lower prices (Ugin, Azusa, Grim Tutor, Runed Halo), powerful generic answer card (Priest), interesting planeswalker designs, the return of phasing, and mill is getting keyworded. I'm pretty excited so far, at least for Modern.

Not loving the idea of Azusa, Nissa, Ugin, Uro, and other ramp cards in Standard. That sounds heinous.
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Post by idSurge » 10 months ago

Yeah, some nice picks so far. Historic Ramp will be nuts.
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Post by The Fluff » 10 months ago

It's about time Ugin went down a bit in price.

Looking forward to seeing the new planeswalker.
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 10 months ago

True-Name Nemesis wrote:
10 months ago
They finally decided to put Containment Priest in Modern. About a year late.
Exactly my feeling. This is what I posted on my group of friend's whatsapp - Containment Priest is too strong for MH, Wotc, "prints it in Standard a bit later." :explode:

I still think there are a lot of cards that we all discussed for the possibility of being in Modern Horizons that never came to fruition. Now I realize that they can't print everything and I actually think they did a solid job in MH (I know, many don't agree). But stuff like Leovold, Emissary of Trest, Innocent Blood, and many more that I'm not thinking of right now could also be okay.

Why are they printing stuff like Azusa and Ugin instead of those cards? If any type of ramp is viable, Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is going to be a pain in the ass. You think we needed better answers to planeswalkers before? No, now we literally need, 0: destroy target planeswalker, draw a card.
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