[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Amalgam
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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
Amalgam wrote:
1 year ago
Worth another note is that CFB events is being dissolved, what this means for paper magic we will yet see.
Things do seem to be going from bad to worse though for paper magic in general
What? That sounds terrible. I hope this is not true or just temporary.
Yes it's horrible and there's a thread on the MagicTCG reddit page about it. What it most likely means is no competitive paper magic for the rest of this year(To be fair they would struggle for numbers due to covid anyway). But what it means going forward is anyones guess.
It honestly is starting to feel more and more like paper magic is dead. Which is sad because the game just isn't the same online be it MTGO or Arena.
Competitve Magic has already been dead for years in the oceanic region for me when Wizards killed flight costs to Pro Tours, dropped nationals and other competitive events while also reducing GP's.
Really hate how negative I have become towards magic in the last 6-12 months but everytime I think it can't get any worse it somehow does. Might be time to quit
Edit: How could I forget them killing streaming of paper events as well

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idSurge
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

blkdemonight wrote:
1 year ago
I don't get why Historic of all things. That format isn't paper legal format, unless they intended to run paid leagues on Arena.
Paper no longer matters. It really doesnt. Competitive play (Organized Play) will be moving to Arena/MTGO. GP's in Paper are a thing of the past, as they were never profitable in the first place, remember when we lost coverage?

You think Paper was going to happen? Nah. Not with Covid. Leagues like the NHL and NBA had to pause, you think Paper GP's was gonna be a thing?

Historic, because Pioneer isnt a thing yet, is the Arena 'eternal' format. Its health right now, especially right now with Wizard's stepping in their own %$#% every other time they post a new tweet, is very important.
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Bearscape
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Post by Bearscape » 1 year ago

Very excited for Monday, I really am curious what they will do with Companions.

In standard, Tef3 should be the ban. If they just take a piece from Lukka, the next big boomy thing will become the top tier. You just get to slam a bunch of 5 and 7 drops in standard now without the usual risk of getting blown out by removal or countermagic.

Curious about Historic. It actually has been an incredibly fun format, probably because it's still so volatile, and I don't really know what would require a ban. Winota is good, but not broken. Tef3 could go there as well I guess, just for being an awful card.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

TheBoulderer wrote:
1 year ago
I won't go into detail, but looking at the world and the stuff that happens in it has taught me that the average person is ignorant at best. This is true in most areas, why should it be different in mtg...
While true, that's not really a knock against humanity or an indication that people are dumb. The average level of understanding on anything is really low because only a few are experts on any given subject and the gap between an expert in a layman is huge in terms of understanding. And, due to specialization the deeper you delve into any sub discipline on a subject, the greater that gap is. And due to the time involved in becoming an expert on something, most people are generally only an expert in one or two subjects.

If you could quantify and score the understanding on any subject the mean, median, and mode of those scores would all be very different things, with the mean being the least valuable number of those three.
cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Saw that too. Notably, NOT addressing Modern. I don't even give a sh*t why anymore.


I've got the opposite opinion, this is actually a really good sign because that's two major updates now where they've excluded Modern from formats where it should be included. I don't think this is because they forgot the format exists or anything, rather I think it points to the fact that they've got a large change announced for Modern, something that warrants its own announcement, and a lot of thought put into it.
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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Paper mtg and competitive MTG are not the same thing. Competitive paper mtg in the big formats might be in danger. Paper mtg most certainly isn't.

Since I restarted selling cards on EBay after a covid hiatus the cards have flown off the shelves. People are *buying*, and buying deep. It is ludicrous how much they are buying.
The US spikes of EDH cards, specifically cEDH cards, are testament to markets' status there. Now the whole of the US card playing market might be mad, hell the whole country might be mad, and given the paltry and rotten state of the two presidential candidates, it could be collective madness has swept the country, but it is not just the US, and I am pretty sure the most folk over there are sane and buying responsibly. They see a future use to those cards, and they are wise, not reckless. All over Europe people are buying too- the cards are not spiking- MKM makes that hard- but they are buying, and they do not have the $1200 stimulus cheques burning MTG sized holes in pockets. Reports from people in Australia - yep- you guessed it buying, if they can get hold of product. Buying, buying, buying. That is not a dead game, and the products wotc are aiming to sell in stupid numbers indicate the appetite for physical cards.

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idSurge
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

I definitely believe (based on my twitter feed) you are right, but....I dont get it. I want out so hard I can feel it in my bones.

I hope they keep buying and driving up prices. :p
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iTaLenTZ
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

Everything is too little too late for me. A lot of frustration, worries, dissatisfaction has load off my shoulders after selling my collection. MTG in general went downhill and it won't ever become again what it used to be. Toxic cards like Atrolabe, T3feri, Companions, Veil of Summer etc are here to stay. They simply won't ban every OP card they print. You either accept these changes to MTG or you get the %$#% out. It took me 2 years to understand that message Wizards was sending me. More and more broken cards will keep being released to sell packs putting more dire pressure on eternal formats. They simply don't care. Eternal formats have been amortized. They moved on to the next cash cow namely Arena. Modern has been completely abandoned. Each set will contain cards that will fundamentally change or break the format and each time it will take 3-6 months for them to react and by that time the newest card from the newest set is out and its the same story: "We have to give card X a chance, lets wait for more data, maybe the meta will adepts, ect ect". I am very glad I don't have to deal with this any more. I am still considering sending Maro an open letter on why a veteran player decided to quit the game after more than 20 years but I don't think any one cares.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
I am still considering sending Maro an open letter on why a veteran player decided to quit the game after more than 20 years but I don't think any one cares.
I honestly think you should, not to 'stick it to maro' but as another voice being heard.

I do believe that there is going to be a pronounced shift toward EDH and Arena, far harder than we have already seen, within a year or 2 as they ramp up their real response to Covid and what it has done to player behavior.
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FoodChainGoblins
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

Pro Player Ari Lax just wrote an article, "Get Yorion, Sky Nomad the %$#% Outta Here." on SCG. He brought up some very good points as to why it should be eliminated from Standard, Historic, Pioneer, Modern, and Legacy. The article is in Premium, as most of this BS is coming down to (CFB Pro too).

https://articles.starcitygames.com/prem ... 1564458490

If anyone wants to know the gist of it, I can footnote.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Jeskai Phoenix, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Yeah, I'll check it in a week, but by then hopefully its a non-issue.
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Post by TheBoulderer » 1 year ago

I'm not usually that guy, but honestly, I'm not optimistic about Monday's announcement. No matter what they do, modern will probably be in a poor place.

Before companions turned modern on it's head, there were already massive problems with the format, mainly Uro being in a massive amount of decks and every Gx deck running Veil of Summer at 2-4 copies. These problems just got coverd by a "companion-layer" of problems. They are still there.

If they ban Lurrus, Yorion will take over. If they change the companion mechanic, I find it highly unlikely that they'll actually get it right. In any case, if they nerf them enough, modern will just revert back to an Uro/Veil format, which was complete and utter garbage.

This is a weird, very bad place modern is in: Apart from the very worst ones, problems that have come with pushed print after pushed print havent really been resolved. Starting to ban cards or even just nerfing companions will be like peeling back layer after layer of a rotten fruit. I'd say there's about 3 layers worth of %$#% around a balanced, fun modern format.

And I have absolutely zero confidence that WotC will get this right. Not in a week, and not in a year. MTG is developed too far into the future. The ship on several new sets has already sailed. So realistically, we are looking at years until we can expect them to correct course. My guess is many people won't stay that long.

With those who do stick around, WotC will know that they can do their absolute worst and they still won't lose those players. No offence but IMO if people want modern improved they should boycott the living %$#% out of new MTG product. Skip standard, skip draft, skip Arena, skip money-grabbing masters sets, and give Maro and development a good cold shower.

In a free market economy, if somebody makes a bad product and then refuses to improve it despite loud, clear negative feedback, they should fail and go bankrupt. Irrational emotional attachment makes stuff survive that really shouldn't and that kind of takes the incentive away to really try and make something good.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

TheBoulderer wrote:
1 year ago
With those who do stick around, WotC will know that they can do their absolute worst and they still won't lose those players. No offence but IMO if people want modern improved they should boycott the living %$#% out of new MTG product. Skip standard, skip draft, skip Arena, skip money-grabbing masters sets, and give Maro and development a good cold shower.
How does this fix Modern?

I'm not saying your wrong in the rest of your post, but this doesnt send the message you wish.

We need the big youtube/twitter people. The youtubers that people fall all over, to be the ones expressing the Modern issue. They wont listen to plebs like us, we dont count.

Modern absolutely, without a doubt, is an afterthought.
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Could certainly be the case. I would be amazed at how low my expectations for them would be to ever improve the game at that point, but it is what it is.
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Aazadan
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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

TheBoulderer wrote:
1 year ago
This is a weird, very bad place modern is in: Apart from the very worst ones, problems that have come with pushed print after pushed print havent really been resolved. Starting to ban cards or even just nerfing companions will be like peeling back layer after layer of a rotten fruit. I'd say there's about 3 layers worth of %$#% around a balanced, fun modern format.
Like I said before, I interestingly have hope for the format based on these announcements. Modern didn't get lumped in with this set, and it wasn't in the previous set. We also know they responded well to @ktkenshinx when he made a post about Modern issues a couple months ago. Regardless of how bad their development process is right now, they're not blind to the poor state of formats, there's no way they could be. Sidestepping around Modern entirely, and addressing the companion problem in a different update suggests that they have something big to say/do with Modern, and that it's an update that shouldn't be shared with anything else.

Including just a small change to Modern alongside everything else would be a bad sign. Doing nothing is also a bad sign, but the fact they've had to adjust every format recently due to development screwups, and they haven't mentioned Modern, which is in truly bad shape does suggest that either the format is dead and they're ignoring it, or that they have something major in the works.

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Post by pierreb » 1 year ago

That's some twisted logic right there.

The reason they will address standard and historic is because those are the formats their sales are based on. They need to sell packs, and packs are all about standard and especially Arena right now.

They ignore modern because there is zero money to be made off modern right now. There is zero paper event and arena doesn't support it. They make zero money off modern on MTGO.

So, no it's not because they have a secret shrew great plan for modern. It's because they screwed things badly and need to get the cash cow milking again.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

I think with fixes, Historic could be fine, but you need to already ban out so many things which are simply not acceptable for long term play.

Lukka, Nissa, T3feri
Winota, Agent, Uro
Fires, Wilderness.

Everything is just so 'I WIN LOLOL I"M SO GOOD' and snowballs out of control near instantly. Its just all so completely obnoxious, and its such a wild departure from Magic from as recently as TWENTY EIGHTEEN.
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Aazadan
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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

pierreb wrote:
1 year ago
That's some twisted logic right there.

The reason they will address standard and historic is because those are the formats their sales are based on. They need to sell packs, and packs are all about standard and especially Arena right now.

They ignore modern because there is zero money to be made off modern right now. There is zero paper event and arena doesn't support it. They make zero money off modern on MTGO.

So, no it's not because they have a secret shrew great plan for modern. It's because they screwed things badly and need to get the cash cow milking again.
If you think they're going to completely ignore Modern because you say it's of no value to them, while they're also making announcements to Vintage and Legacy, I would love to hear your logic as to why you think they would do that.

Abandoning popular formats is not a good way to generate future business. Furthermore, such an action would be them essentially admitting that the problems are completely unfixable and that would not be good either for the admission or the implication.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

Legacy/vintage were completely on fire after lurrus destroyed them and needed to be addressed first. Seriously, that was redicoulous. Brawl needed addressed. Standard has obvious problems which will be addressed Monday. Idk anything about historic. Modern and pioneers companion problems will get addressed too but it may take a few more weeks. Any other fixes like viel or astrolabe are still 50/50 at best imo, companions are where the focus is being put it seems.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Greeksis wrote:
1 year ago
So, I am here to disturb your inner peace. I know I made a prediction, but I officially put a no. 3 scenarion on the table and as of now, I think it's as possible as nerfing the companions.
I think it's highly possible that will ban some cards in Std & Pioneer and leave the companions be. No bans, no changes, no errata on the companions.
I absolutely agree it's possible. As you said, "address" is ambiguous enough that it could mean just a statement. I do not, however, think it is very likely because Wizards openly considered changing the mechanic in the 05/18 B&R and knows it's a major issue on social media. I certainly don't think it's "highly possible" as you say. That said, I'm also not sure what the numeric value is on "highly possible." I would assume "probable" to be 50%+ and "possible" to be less. So does that make "highly possible" 30%? 40%? I ask because I can't tell if you truly believe this is likely to happen, or if you are just throwing it out there as one of many possible scenarios that Wizards could do.
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Historic has problems, but honestly I think they are all the same problems as Standard. These cards that have been getting printed are absolutely obnoxious.
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cfusionpm
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

I don't understand how people consider "Historic" a real format.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Honestly, its deeper than Modern and Pioneer lol.
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Post by blkdemonight » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
I don't understand how people consider "Historic" a real format.
Arena streamers. That's it
Wouldn't be surprised if the meme discord format called Gladiator is also fudging historic ranked appetite.

I've had more fun on Arena on Standard Pauper, Historic Artisan, and Brawl, as long as I'm using 4 mana Vraska as the commander. The rotating loan decks are also fun, compared to Standard ranked.

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

See as much as people ask in these threads for them to ban Astrolabe I honestly don't think they will do it in either Modern or Legacy simply for the fact that it allows cheaper manabases. There's quite a few cards you could bane before banning Astrolabe anyway

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Veil is fine on Legacy. Back to being a board card, and if Labe goes it gets worse.
Modern needs action, but as I have said before many times, it won't be enough, and bans alone can not do it, unless you are talking about rebooting a new and similar format.. Even then, the day they banned lattice was a bad sign. Blood moon, teferi, lattice, chalice are all fine in any older format in power terms, and once you ban on fun, your format is no longer a serious format.
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