[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Post by idSurge » 11 months ago

I dont know that anyone has tried. The problem is the tension of Turn 3 Uro to ramp to 5 mana on the Turn 4, so when did you ever cast the Exarch?

I wouldnt play it, I know that much. You may as well be on some Kiki-Chord-Snow thing.
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 11 months ago

For what it's worth, the TeamLotusBox tournament took place again this weekend - 200 something players.

1. Ad Nauseam
2. RB Prowess
3-8. 2 Yorion Scapeshift, 2 more RB Prowess, Lurrus Bogles, and Lurrus Devoted Devastation

The only non companion deck won it! It beat the Yorion Scapeshift decks 5 times this tournament and seems like a solid call vs. Prowess (although much better vs. Burn)
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - MBA, UB Inverter
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Yawmoth Chord, Uroza
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by cfusionpm » 11 months ago

Greeksis wrote:
11 months ago
Long story short, we are certain that Splinter Twin would be super scary and absolutely bannable if it was unbanned right now, because of the list of cards I mentioned.
All I'll say is that a plethora of pros with established testing teams and more GP/PT T8s and wins between them than any normal player could dream of were convinced for years that cards like Jace were UTTERLY BROKEN and Stoneforge Mystic was WAY TOO GOOD. The point here isn't unique to Jace or SFM, but that they were all wrong despite their knowledge, experience, and testing. So forgive my reluctance to put any significance in your results on this. Especially when we just have to take your word for it. Especially when spoken with such outlandish hyperbole.

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Post by idSurge » 11 months ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
11 months ago
For what it's worth, the TeamLotusBox tournament took place again this weekend - 200 something players.

1. Ad Nauseam
2. RB Prowess
3-8. 2 Yorion Scapeshift, 2 more RB Prowess, Lurrus Bogles, and Lurrus Devoted Devastation

The only non companion deck won it! It beat the Yorion Scapeshift decks 5 times this tournament and seems like a solid call vs. Prowess (although much better vs. Burn)
Thats the beauty of Modern, or any non-rotational format. Forgot about Ad Naus, or things got too interactive? Well here comes Bogles.
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 11 months ago

Any unban, or even new printings for that matter, involves risk. I believe twin has an acceptable level of risk but it should certainly be watched closely.

This period of time and predicted ban remind me of the eldrazi winter situation. They set the meta on fire to sell standard packs, eventually banned a card, and the community was so mad that they decided to unban 2 cards immediately after that, AV and SotM. Then years later almost exactly the same thing happened with hogaak which then returned SFM to us.
Given the established preccident, no matter what you think of twin, or other possible unban targets, I fully believe we should expect an unban of a card in the next 3-6 months and it would be wise to be prepared. If you hate twin, this may be a good time to pick up any specific hate cards you might need.

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Post by drmarkb » 11 months ago

cfusionpm wrote:
11 months ago
drmarkb wrote:
11 months ago
FON being printed is the biggest impediment to twin returning, the flash ability and mana restrictive ability on the twin creatures makes FON more powerful than in normal combo decks.
I wish people would not say things like this as if they mean anything.

Force of Negation is not free on your turn, so to be effective for Twin to use, the only window to use is the opponent's turn, before/during/after tapper resolves. If opponent simply doesn't do anything and waits to kill, say, in Twin's upkeep instead, they have to either now spend their mana on the counterspell (which is no longer free, and now costs them a turn of being able to combo), or let the creature die.

On the flip side, FoN (and for that matter, Force of Vigor) are both free while the Twin player is trying to go off. Meaning you can safely tap out against them and hold up either of these pieces of interaction. You get to bluff to the Twin player that you have nothing, then blow them out with a massive tempo swing that will be very hard to recover from.

It is not clearly black and white, strictly better, or whatever nonsense people continue to peddle in order to justify an unnatural fear for a combo deck that is either slower, less reliable, or easier to interact with than a slew of things currently dominating Modern. Goodness, this is why many of us don't even want to talk about it anymore.
If you cast Exarch t3 on my turn, tapping my mana down, I have to kill it then or risk losing next turn.l You can cast FON at that point on my turn, and win in your turn because you tapped me out. FON is maindeckable, force of vigor is not, you know that of course, printing FON helps Twin more than it hurts it because of the flash on the creature and the mana lock ability. I played Twin too, the landing of the creature was nearly always on their turn early doors, that is obvious. You assume the opponent has access to FON, which of course most decks should not. You get FON, the other non blue decks do nothing in the free spell department. The fact they printed FON makes me believe they are not likely to unban Twin, and whilst FOV points the other way, the fact it is a only board card is significant. I have heard nothing in your argument that makes me think they will unban it, which was the point I was making, they would not print stuff Twin could use if they were thinking about unbanning it. I think they are ignoring Modern, let alone considering the impact of new cards on older unbans. It is carry on designing as far as they are concerned....damned the effect on Modern, and damned if it keeps a card banned or causes a new one to go.
Same arguments apply everytime a good counter is printed, e.g. veil, and the opposite when good removal gets printed, which of course it hasn't.

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Post by cfusionpm » 11 months ago

Greeksis wrote:
11 months ago
Basically, I will create a thread to talk about it.
That thread actually already exists, but hasn't seen a post in 3 months.

viewtopic.php?t=16911

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Post by idSurge » 11 months ago

If I was a mod, I'd delete every Twin post, or cut them and paste them in that thread. :p

It's so far removed from any recent relevance.

I'm just glad more people online are coming around to T3feri being an absolute travesty.

EDIT: No seriously. Make a specific thread, and dump any and every Twin commentary into it. Its not relevant to Modern, its not relevant in any other format, and its not relevant to Magic, as it is designed and developed today.

Discuss something relevant, like how Uro encapsulates everything that is flawed in today's developmental system.
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Post by ktkenshinx » 11 months ago

It is insane to me that we're still discussing Twin. That's like saying the problem with a post-COVID world is a lack of dine-in Italian restaurants. Many people, but not all, enjoy Italian food and it's probably a hallmark of a diverse dining ecosystem. But it's not even remotely the main problem, and it's definitely not the problem bringing down the proverbial industry. Twin isn't just missing the forest for the trees. It's missing the forest for some leafs on the ground.

Returning to legitimate issues, I do think some of the early warnings about the game were canary in coal mine scenarios. The biggest would be the lack of generic answers and strong interaction due to Wizards promotion of battlecruiser Magic design. But I think this also extends to other issues like Wizards profit motives with sketchy reprint decisions, promotion of certain premium products, emphasis on more profitable formats over older/larger ones, etc. Unfortunately, many of these recent decisions happened under the guise of Wizards being aware of the problem. See Play Design. A lot of people, myself included, thought Play Design was a great idea that would avoid a lot of these issues. If anything, the post-Play Design era has been MUCH worse, whether because the team isn't doing its job, because someone is vetoing their decisions, because risky design gets pushed through in the hope that PD just fixes it, etc. Certainly, it's some combination of those issues.

At this point, I have no easy solutions for Wizards because they have damaged so many formats and so much of their playerbase's confidence over the past 1-2 years. I do know I'd start with clearer communication from key, official Wizards figures on the game's direction. This would also include steps Wizards is taking to address game issues. It's even more insane to me than Twin talk that Wizards social media personalities are posting memes and trying to promote light/rosy conversation when their competitive Constructed scene is burning around them. It comes off as disconnected, disingenuous, dismissive, and/or deceptive. Maybe just incompetent. Either way, this is where I'd start, and I think my next article will focus on this macro issue.
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Post by idSurge » 11 months ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
11 months ago
This would also include steps Wizards is taking to address game issues. It's even more insane to me than Twin talk that Wizards social media personalities are posting memes and trying to promote light/rosy conversation when their competitive Constructed scene is burning around them. It comes off as disconnected, disingenuous, dismissive, and/or deceptive. Maybe just incompetent. Either way, this is where I'd start, and I think my next article will focus on this macro issue.
This is where I have settled. I dont know that a single word captures their behavior, but it is not honest. That much* is clear.

I still havent seen Forsythe answer 'What is Modern', and Maro's mailbox posts only handled softballs, as expected.

Magic is in DIRE need of a reset in the next few sets.
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 11 months ago

I would like to refrain from using words like "insane" and "not honest". Just saying.

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Post by idSurge » 11 months ago

You honestly feel that Wizard's has been transparent and honest with competitive constructed players?
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Post by ktkenshinx » 11 months ago

metalmusic_4 wrote:
11 months ago
I would like to refrain from using words like "insane" and "not honest". Just saying.
Regarding "insane," if it's because of mental health stigma, I accept that. Just know by "insane" I really mean shorthand for irrational and illogical.

As for "dishonest," I have no other way to put it. Wizards is currently not being honest about the problems their game and formats are facing.
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Post by Mapccu » 11 months ago

Format is a dumpster fire, sure. We've always seen a handful of cards from most sets enter in the fray.

Scars block have us the infect deck which has long floated between t1-2 at various points. It also gave us the fast lands, which the format hasn't exactly been shy about playing. Pod came from this block.

RTR block gave us a slew of multicolored cards that made a splash, like Boros charm. Yes dragons maze was a hot pile of Garbo but the other sets were fine. More shocks to increase supply even if it wasn't a new format addition.

Zen gave us fetches which completely changed the landscape of the format. We also had cards like goblin guide. Jace and stoneforged were locked away for years...

Inn Block gave us lotv, snappy, Griselbrand, and cavern. The power level was there...

Khans gave us other batch of fetches that, again, really pushed modern in a million directions. This is excluding crap like coco, which is still the easiest way for tribal decks to catch up or close the door in most situations.

Zen 2.0 gave us eldrazi winter.

Kaladesh was a second shot in the arm for artifact decks. Chandra, more fast lands, push.

The list goes on.

Every block has changed the modern format. I think a lot of the fatigue is we all bought in at a time when mana fixing was junk and we were pigeonholed into playing painful mana bases if we wanted anything outside of the norm. This propped up the affinity, kind, twin, etc pillars at the formats inception. I'm guilty of this too. I have elves foiled out, a deck that can goldfish t4 consistently and can even pull of t2 wins under incredible circumstances, deck isn't even playable in any meta we've had since eldrazi winter...

The format rotated as often as standard. You buy in at risk. The idea of cards having longevity is what keeps prices high and that in turn keeps box prices high. So they either gut playability and supply to keep demand flat or we keep getting pushed crap by at relatively easy to find and semi affordable prices.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 11 months ago

idSurge wrote:
11 months ago
You honestly feel that Wizard's has been transparent and honest with competitive constructed players?
Oh, I misunderstood you then. I thought you ment the players with a positive opinion of twin were not being honest about our reasoning. No WOTC has clearly had financial motivations ahead of players imo.

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Post by cfusionpm » 11 months ago

Greeksis wrote:
11 months ago
Cfusion probably thinks otherwise and I am trying to correct him, as I have playtested with the deck.
You think you are the be-all-end-all authority because you jammed a few dozen games, using a list you won't share, with friends on a discord server. Stop claiming to be an irrefutable expert on the matter, and this would have never been an issue.

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Post by pierreb » 11 months ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
11 months ago
If anything, the post-Play Design era has been MUCH worse, whether because the team isn't doing its job, because someone is vetoing their decisions, because risky design gets pushed through in the hope that PD just fixes it, etc.
I had never thought about it that way, even though MaRo's explanation that it is not the designer's job to balance card always rang false with me. On some level, that philosophy is pretty much Pilate's hand washing, refusing to take responsibility for the state of Magic. Creating PD pretty much cemented that idea. When you think about it, no matter how many total pro-years the PD team has under its belt, it is dwarfed by the years of experience the core design team has Yet, Wizards expected them to correct whatever design mistakes were passing through their hands. Obviously, the result proved that the approach did not work.

But on the wider stage, it could easily not matter, if Wizards were less nonchalant about fixing modern. I'm 100% convinced that they take their time to ban stuff in order for new sets to sell.

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Post by cfusionpm » 11 months ago

Mapccu wrote:
11 months ago
Spoiler
Show
Format is a dumpster fire, sure. We've always seen a handful of cards from most sets enter in the fray.

Scars block have us the infect deck which has long floated between t1-2 at various points. It also gave us the fast lands, which the format hasn't exactly been shy about playing. Pod came from this block.

RTR block gave us a slew of multicolored cards that made a splash, like Boros charm. Yes dragons maze was a hot pile of Garbo but the other sets were fine. More shocks to increase supply even if it wasn't a new format addition.

Zen gave us fetches which completely changed the landscape of the format. We also had cards like goblin guide. Jace and stoneforged were locked away for years...

Inn Block gave us lotv, snappy, Griselbrand, and cavern. The power level was there...

Khans gave us other batch of fetches that, again, really pushed modern in a million directions. This is excluding crap like coco, which is still the easiest way for tribal decks to catch up or close the door in most situations.

Zen 2.0 gave us eldrazi winter.

Kaladesh was a second shot in the arm for artifact decks. Chandra, more fast lands, push.

The list goes on.

Every block has changed the modern format. I think a lot of the fatigue is we all bought in at a time when mana fixing was junk and we were pigeonholed into playing painful mana bases if we wanted anything outside of the norm. This propped up the affinity, kind, twin, etc pillars at the formats inception. I'm guilty of this too. I have elves foiled out, a deck that can goldfish t4 consistently and can even pull of t2 wins under incredible circumstances, deck isn't even playable in any meta we've had since eldrazi winter...

The format rotated as often as standard. You buy in at risk. The idea of cards having longevity is what keeps prices high and that in turn keeps box prices high. So they either gut playability and supply to keep demand flat or we keep getting pushed crap by at relatively easy to find and semi affordable prices.
This is an interesting take to have. Though I could imagine the level at which each of these sets impacted might vary greatly, depending on whatever metrics we use to assess them. I certainly don't care to look through list by list analysis to see prevalent cards in representative eras, but I did take some time last year when working as a sub to just go through and list cards from each set that had some impact on Modern, at least at the time. (I think I did BFZ->GRN). The list would much longer if pushed back to KTK or THS block.
But the point of this is, other than maybe Chill and Phoenix from GRN, the stupid Eldrazi from OGW, and a few random Dredge cards, a LOT of things were added to a lot of decks (or make new decks from these cards) without fundamentally shifting huge swaths of the metagame over and over. A lot of these cards were awesome upgrades, sidegrades, or general sweet additions to the format.

Looking at the list post-GRN, and we seem to have fundamental warping coming from nearly every set:
So we take a look at this list and it seems VASTLY and INCREDIBLY different in both the quantity of cards having an impact over such a short period (6 sets vs 14) and the sheer number of banned cards, or cards that caused bannings. The power creep is very real, and the impact seems to be worse and worse with each set, post GRN.
Last edited by cfusionpm 11 months ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by idSurge » 11 months ago

Greeksis wrote:
11 months ago
Now, I don't give a damn if one or two pros think otherwise. I think the notion that when you run out of cards or flood out, you can have an 8th card, that warps your whole deck and makes it worse, is very smart idea.
If Lurrus read "creatures" and Yorion was on 10 more cards, everything would be better for Modern. Lurrus brings back only creatures after all. I don't understand why it does say permanents. Yorion, slots into fair decks, and I like that. Every other companion, is fine in my book(sure, Zirda in Legacy, I don't know about that format and monoliths).
1 or 2 pro's?

You are not paying attention then. However I know you are, because I see you on the same twitter threads. :p

Companion is a mistake. It is not flood mitigation. It is 'free' advantage once you mitigate the restrictions. Thats how things go from decent, to good, to busted.

If you could only cast it when you had an empty hand, that would be one thing, but thats not it is it?
If you had to replace a card in hand with it after muligans, that would be one thing, but thats not it is it?

Its in application a free, protected card, that by their very nature will have synergy with your deck, at the low low cost of 1 sideboard slot.

1 or 2 pros? Be honest with yourself. Its everyone from pros to grinders to casuals to game designers who also play Magic.

And yes, Wizards (Maro, Forsythe, Duke) by simple omission, are not honest with us. You and I both know (yes know) that Modern is flawed, but now they 'need more data'.

Dishonest.
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Post by idSurge » 11 months ago

Greeksis wrote:
11 months ago
Getting tired of all the bantalk, loving brewing with zirda, obosh and stuff. If you don't like it, don't play it. There is no need to complain all the time.
True indeed, normally we can just play a different format....but.

https://articles.starcitygames.com/prem ... gic-again/

That article is now free. Read it if you care about Magic like it used to be.
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Post by cfusionpm » 11 months ago

Greeksis wrote:
11 months ago
cfusionpm wrote:
11 months ago
Greeksis wrote:
11 months ago
Cfusion probably thinks otherwise and I am trying to correct him, as I have playtested with the deck.
You think you are the be-all-end-all authority because you jammed a few dozen games, using a list you won't share, with friends on a discord server. Stop claiming to be an irrefutable expert on the matter, and this would have never been an issue.
I know Splinter Twin would be too risky and should not be unbanned,
I think for the betterment of this thread, I just mute your account moving forward.

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Post by idSurge » 11 months ago

From the article...

"I've certainly said my piece on enchantment engines that allow you to cheat on mana. Wilderness Reclamation, Fires of Invention, Song of Creation, Titans' Nest… sure, these cards have very different applications, but the similarity is real. Do you know how many playable counterspells are in Standard right now? The puzzle of the optimal one to play was interesting until mostly solved by Mystical Dispute, but is the format actually benefiting from shoehorning a bunch of extremely similar options into sets?"

Hmm who has been saying that recently... :p

This games flaws right now are obvious to anyone looking.
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Post by ModernDefector » 11 months ago

Greeksis wrote:
11 months ago
Companions is the best thing that has happened to the game in the last years
Jesus, lol.

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Post by idSurge » 11 months ago

The number of references, that I believe you actually linked yourself, of people utterly done with Standard, and Magic right now, would take too long for me to collect.

The main take away is not that those other ones are 'ok' its that they are all cheating on the resources that anyone who's been around here long enough knows, are the main ways in which the game 'breaks'.

You cheat on resources, and its gonna cost the game.

Ever single one of those cards cheats on resources, and why did we need all of them to exist in the first place? Why is '4cmc enchant engine' now a thing?

Congrats on Mythic, you have the ability to grind with an appropriately powerful 'winners meta' deck. If Eldrazi Winter was on Arena, you could grind with it to Mythic too. Standard is flawed, just as every other format right now is flawed (Vintage may revert to itself now that Lurrus is banned, 1 fixed, 4 more to go!)

EDIT: Seriously read the article. Feel free to disagree all you like, but I find it alarming how many points he touches on, that we have all been discussing here for months, or years if you go back to MTGS.

He gets it, and some of us 'get it'. Thats proof enough that Magic is flawed.
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Post by Aazadan » 11 months ago

pierreb wrote:
11 months ago
I had never thought about it that way, even though MaRo's explanation that it is not the designer's job to balance card always rang false with me. On some level, that philosophy is pretty much Pilate's hand washing, refusing to take responsibility for the state of Magic. Creating PD pretty much cemented that idea. When you think about it, no matter how many total pro-years the PD team has under its belt, it is dwarfed by the years of experience the core design team has Yet, Wizards expected them to correct whatever design mistakes were passing through their hands. Obviously, the result proved that the approach did not work.

But on the wider stage, it could easily not matter, if Wizards were less nonchalant about fixing modern. I'm 100% convinced that they take their time to ban stuff in order for new sets to sell.
His explanation of how they design stuff is a little unconventional when it comes to games, but they make a paper game rather than a video game like 99% of the industry market share so having a slightly different process is to be expected.

Using a video game analogy, Magic designers are to Magic what level designers are to a video game. It's their job to make content that is fun and interesting, however it's not really their job to do the final tuning on the game. Things like character balance (which is 99% of the balancing in Magic) would be handled by another team. Basically, in Magic the level design is the flavor, mechanics, and UX aspect to the game while the balancing is the specific card stats, which is what Magic gives to their development team.

I'm not really sure if Play Design is to blame here because Play Design was created in response to issues that were already appearing. From what little outsiders know of Magics process, I think they've evolved in a direction that makes things too complex with exploratory design, pre design, design, devign, play design, development.

If we throw away the idea that these mistakes are intentional and rather that it's just a massive accident, I would argue that adding all of these stages to the process has created a situation where things keep getting passed on, assuming it's the role of another wave to fix it. Then they hit the end with no changes. That or the development and especially play design teams are bad at their jobs. I'm not unwilling to rule that one out either, because making a game is a very different skill set from playing a game, and development tends to recruit their game makers from the ranks of game players.

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