[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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FoodChainGoblins
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 11 months ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
11 months ago
So I got a decent offer on my 20+ years collection and sold it. MTG hasn't been the passed 2-3 years what it has been all the years before and I only see it getting worse. The amount of time I couldn't/haven't played Modern and Legacy the passed 3 years is more than half due to serious balance issues (Faithless Loothing, Hogaak, Oko) and now Veil of Summer, Astrolabe snow, Lurrus and what is yet to come has made be pull the trigger. I can't justify being into MTG when its such an expensive hobby while more than half the time I can't even play any format. Companions was the nail in the coffin since I absolutely hate the mechanic. Also my local Modern scene was already dying since Pioneer took over and Legacy is just once every 2 months I get to play it. Every new set is fundamentally breaking the eternal formats so I am out. 20+ years was a good and overall fun run and all good things must come to and end. I wish everyone the best.
That sucks, but yeah, a lot is changing in Magic.

Watching the TeamLotusBox Modern tournament with 200 something players. Here is the demographic for the 8 most played main deck cards.
1. Lightning Bolt - 344
2. Mishra's Bauble - 264
3. Arcum's Astrolabe - 204
4. Ice-Fang Coatl - 168
5. Fatal Push - 161
6. Cryptic Command - 153
7. Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath - 151
8. Abundant Growth - 149

So, 6 cards that say "draw a card" and 2 ways to kill Lurrus of the Dream-Den. Interesting...

Here's some more stats from teh tournament.
Spoiler
Show
Most sideboarded cards
1. Veil of Summer - 245
2. Collective Brutality - 160
3. Mystical Dispute - 130
4. Aether Gust - 118
5. Lurrus of the Dream Den - 118
6. Anger of the Gods - 83
7. Leyline of Sanctity - 80
8. Weather the Storm - 79

Looks like players hedged a bit against Prowess/Burn.

Companions most played
1. Lurrus of the Dream Den - 71
2. Yorion, Sky Nomad - 44
3. Jegantha, the Wellspring - 7
4. Gyruda, Doom of Depths - 4
5. Obosh, the Preypiercer - 2
6. Kaheera, the Orphanguard - 1
Nothing else.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - MBA, UB Inverter
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Yawmoth Chord, Uroza
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 11 months ago

Final prediction for tomorrow:
What will happen:
Vintage- ban lurrus
Legacy- ban lurrus & astrolabe
Brawl- ban drannith magistrate
No other format changes this time, changes will happen in near future.

What should happen:
Legacy/vintage/brawl- same as above
Modern- ban lurrus, unban twin & bridge from below
Standard- ban fires of invention

EDIT: I left this off by mistake, they should ban astrolabe in modern too.
Last edited by metalmusic_4 11 months ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by cfusionpm » 11 months ago

I have so little faith in WOTC that I almost don't even care what happens tomorrow. Until they put out a clear vision statement for our format (or better yet, Magic as a whole), it just feels likes nothing matters. Not being able to play in paper probably helps accentuate this disillusionment, but goodness gracious, the damage this game has taken in the past year feels irreparable.

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Post by Albegas » 11 months ago

I'm going to laugh if they ban Lurrus from Vintage. Not because it's a bad decision, but because it'll be the first card to be banned from Vintage that doesn't have some sort of absurd text on it like the ante cards or the one(s) that have to be dropped from x inches in the air.

I really hope that there's some sort of WotC think tank that's realizing that things can't continue like this. At least Kaladesh only really ruined Standard. I can't think of any time in the years I've been playing Modern where almost every constructed format has been almost unplayable, and this is after implementing a team that was supposed to at least keep Standard manageable. I don't mind Modern being untouched at the moment, but WotC needs to release some sort of article acknowledging failure. Granted, acknowledgement of failure doesn't guarantee that it'll really be addressed, but it certainly beats silence right now.

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Post by idSurge » 11 months ago

I believe they will not only execute on the 'Annoucement of an Annoucement' for Vintage/Legacy/Brawl, but I also think they will set up the Annoucement of an Annoucement for Modern, and after this weekend, Standard to hit the Fires deck.
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Post by Amalgam » 11 months ago

Honestly the one way anything gets done is if it's in a place Wizards can't ignore it. Honestly pretty close to just selling out of the game completely at this point. I love modern and I hate to be pessimistic but it just goes from bad to worse every 3 months at the moment with shakeups in every single format in the game.
Heck the fact that wizards even sells singles via secret lairs should say enough

I don't even know what you can do to fix this mess at this point. The amount of bans Modern and every format need right now would kill so much confidence people have in playing the game but at the same time people are being negative and losing confidence because wizards aren't doing anything.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 11 months ago

I just realized this is a time where lots of change IS happening all around. If there are specific things you want to advocate for you should go to twitter and scream it to the world right now! I know it's to late for this announcement because they already have it typed up and ready to implement into the pc coding, but more changes are coming and people will see your message as they check Twitter for updates!

@mtgaaron @Hasbro @wizards_magic

Edit: @maro254 @_bgoldner (that's Hasbro CEO)
Last edited by metalmusic_4 11 months ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by idSurge » 11 months ago

I would add @maro254, but the poor guy fields all the hate as it is.
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 11 months ago

Good call. I added maro and Hasbro's CEO Brian Goldner. I know they've gotten lots of hate already, but this is the time to make ourselves heard because this is a time of change.

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Post by cfusionpm » 11 months ago

Why would the Hasbro CEO care? They are ROLLING in money thanks to Magic.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 11 months ago

Two reasons o added him.
1) it will probably give higher importance of my message to the WOTC people since I'm airing my grievances to their boss. I expect they won't like that and will want their boss to hear as few bad things about them as possible, especially since some people online are already calling for firings.
2) yes WOTC is certainly making money, but could they be making MORE money of their product was managed better? That's a discussion that is more likely to happen if I'm voicing my complaints to more powerful and influential people. Most of my tweets specially mention money to get the most attention. If i were in charge I would want my properties properly managed to make the most money.

Really I'm just shooting in the dark trying to be heard by someone. He doesn't appear to use his Twitter much anyway. But hopefully the WOTC people will notice and care that I'm tagging him.

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Post by TheBoulderer » 11 months ago

I just came to the realisation (as others have I guess) that if they ban just Lurrus in modern, Yorion decks will absolutely take over modern. Bant Snow was far and away the best deck before companions, and if Lurrus goes, the already best deck just got a massive upgrade. Same is true for Yorion Scapeshift.

They can't possibly ban just Lurrus in modern. If they do that, I'm pretty sure we'll just have Yorion in 50% of decks.

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Post by Amalgam » 11 months ago

TheBoulderer wrote:
11 months ago
I just came to the realisation (as others have I guess) that if they ban just Lurrus in modern, Yorion decks will absolutely take over modern. Bant Snow was far and away the best deck before companions, and if Lurrus goes, the already best deck just got a massive upgrade. Same is true for Yorion Scapeshift.

They can't possibly ban just Lurrus in modern. If they do that, I'm pretty sure we'll just have Yorion in 50% of decks.
Well Lurrus needs to be banned first and modern isnt even included on the b&r tomorrow. Then queue wizards banning bauble instead to dodge a new card ban

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Post by Bearscape » 11 months ago

I said it before: banning Lurrus will make the next companion dominant, and once that one gets banned another one will. Maybe not immediately, but eventually. Having a guaranteed strong free creature as your 8th card every game willl keep warping formats until they change how Companion works as a mechanic.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 11 months ago

It is possible another companion will become too dominant after lurrus, the possibility is undeniable. But I think ALL of them will not become OVERLY dominant. Even over a year or two I expect only 1-3 Companions will reach that level, including lurrus, and need a ban. The others will be at an acceptable level of the meta or remain as fringe decks.

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Post by blkdemonight » 11 months ago

I guess they want the CEO to realize there's PR damage?

As for Modern, I think the game is at a point it might be better to add restricted list to minimize ban damage. Too many cards get released haphazardly either as threats or hand/mana filters with no testing for play outside of draft.
To think Maro says the formats with most cash payout get bigger budgets and care yet Standard burns with no announcement of banning and Modern burns with the expectation that players should buy into uncertainty.

Also, I don't think Splinter Twin should stay banned anymore with all this nonsense. As for Preordain, it should stay banned till we get a restricted list where all of the strongest hand fixes get thrown into

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Post by idSurge » 11 months ago

https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... nouncement

Brawl

Drannith Magistrate is banned.

Winota, Joiner of Forces is banned.

Legacy

Lurrus of the Dream-Den is banned.

Zirda, the Dawnwaker is banned.

Vintage

Lurrus of the Dream-Den is banned.

------------

OTHER FORMATS
While this set of changes has focused on Legacy, Vintage, and Brawl, we're continuing to watch the evolution of the metagame in each other format, including Standard, Pioneer, and Modern. If changes become needed in other formats, we'll provide those separately in a future announcement. As of now, we're seeing a diverse and dynamic metagame that changes from week to week in each Standard, Pioneer, and Modern. Before determining whether any changes are necessary, and what the right changes would be, we need to see the metagame come closer to an equilibrium state. Currently, these formats are shifting too quickly for data to indicate what, if any, card or archetype poses a problem.

We are aware of some players' concerns about the frequency at which they encounter decks using companions across several formats. While we're not currently seeing problematic win rates in Standard, Pioneer, or Modern from decks using companions, we are looking at overall metagame share and potential for repetitive gameplay. If we see signs of long-term health issues resulting from high metagame share of companion decks, we're willing to take steps up to or including changing how the companion mechanic works. For now, metagames need more time to evolve before we can determine whether changes are necessary.
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Post by cfusionpm » 11 months ago

idSurge wrote:
11 months ago
As of now, we're seeing a diverse and dynamic metagame that changes from week to week in each Standard, Pioneer, and Modern. Before determining whether any changes are necessary, and what the right changes would be, we need to see the metagame come closer to an equilibrium state. Currently, these formats are shifting too quickly for data to indicate what, if any, card or archetype poses a problem.

While we're not currently seeing problematic win rates in Standard, Pioneer, or Modern from decks using companions,
Time to pack it up and sell the f**k out of this game.

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Post by Mikefon » 11 months ago

I would consider more this statement:
If we see signs of long-term health issues resulting from high metagame share of companion decks, we're willing to take steps up to or including changing how the companion mechanic works
It may be the right way.

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Post by cfusionpm » 11 months ago

That's cute you expect them to do the right thing.

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Post by cfusionpm » 11 months ago

Modern cannot be fixed with bans at this point. You'd have to ban too many things. If anyone is on the fence about leaving the format (or perhaps the game), this is probably the best time to do so.

We can only guess the "scorch the earth every set" design philosophy will continue through at least the next 1-2 sets, which were finished, printed, and packaged long before the recent outrage.

Why bother anymore?

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Post by TheBoulderer » 11 months ago

I've actually come to the conclusion that the best thing for me to do right now is just run Lurrus myself. Why?

1) I don't play modern at a massive disadvantage every second game and Lurrus games are actually quite enjoyable. I'm in the fortunate position of being able to incorporate Lurrus by changing just a single maindeck card. So first, running Lurrus is a low-cost investment and bridges the gap for me in terms of fun to the point in time where they take action in modern.

2) By running Lurrus, I am actually contributing to its ubiquity, which makes WotC acting on it slightly more likely. In an extreme case of this, if 80% of decks were to adopt Lurrus, it would already be gone.

That's a win-win in my book hahahaha

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 11 months ago

TheBoulderer wrote:
11 months ago
I've actually come to the conclusion that the best thing for me to do right now is just run Lurrus myself. Why?

1) I don't play modern at a massive disadvantage every second game and Lurrus games are actually quite enjoyable. I'm in the fortunate position of being able to incorporate Lurrus by changing just a single maindeck card. So first, running Lurrus is a low-cost investment and bridges the gap for me in terms of fun to the point in time where they take action in modern.

2) By running Lurrus, I am actually contributing to its ubiquity, which makes WotC acting on it slightly more likely. In an extreme case of this, if 80% of decks were to adopt Lurrus, it would already be gone.

That's a win-win in my book hahahaha
Well, less than a month ago, it was Lurrus Burn. Then came RW Lurrus Prowess. Now it's RB Lurrus Prowess. Play Red decks. They are the best in this format right now and specifically/currently it's RB Lurrus Prowess.

There are some silly board states that I often think that Prowess won't win (because it hasn't in these situations in the past). Then Lurrus comes down, getting Abbot of Keral Keep back, showing Mishra's Bauble, and it's off to the races again. In the TeamLotusBox Stream, a Prowess player with just Lurrus and another creature overcame Wurmcoil Engine into a Thragtusk a turn for 3 turns from Tron and won, swinging for nearly eleventy billion the next turn. :dizzy:
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - MBA, UB Inverter
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Yawmoth Chord, Uroza
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by cfusionpm » 11 months ago

Leaving Companions untouched in Modern is just giving players the rope they need to hang themselves with. Looking forward to seeing people buy into many of the these decks, just to have the marquee card banned, and they're left with the same mediocre pile it was before Lurrus and Yorion, or a pile of cards they bought specifically *for* those decks. Not like they haven't done this a dozen times previously. Gotta get that money before pulling the rug out and forcing another rotation.

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Post by blkdemonight » 11 months ago

TheBoulderer wrote:
11 months ago
I've actually come to the conclusion that the best thing for me to do right now is just run Lurrus myself. Why?

1) I don't play modern at a massive disadvantage every second game and Lurrus games are actually quite enjoyable. I'm in the fortunate position of being able to incorporate Lurrus by changing just a single maindeck card. So first, running Lurrus is a low-cost investment and bridges the gap for me in terms of fun to the point in time where they take action in modern.

2) By running Lurrus, I am actually contributing to its ubiquity, which makes WotC acting on it slightly more likely. In an extreme case of this, if 80% of decks were to adopt Lurrus, it would already be gone.

That's a win-win in my book hahahaha
Devious

They should have altered the companion text now. This way people wanting the guaranteed card mechanic can still play while not hosing anyone by investing a deck that'll die with banning. But funnily enough decided it's better to ban Lurrus in a format not known for power level bans.

It's discouraging they have no idea what's the problem for Standard and Modern since they feel it changes too much. I really doubt they have anyone with enough play/deck building experience to see through meta flux.

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