[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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cfusionpm
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

metalmusic_4 wrote:
1 year ago
Just to clarify my position. I am a hogaak player, so I don't WANT a ban, I believe a ban is what should happen to protect the format. I want to protect the size od rhe ban list though, it should be as small as possible. Now that a ban is needed you have to pick the card. I firmly vote on banning hogaak. If FL gets the ban I will take out red and use blue and put hedron crab in. That gives me hedron crab, stichers supplier, satyr wayfinder to get cards from my library to the grave and to get them out of my hand I may use lotleth troll and rotting regisaure, maybe dark blast for some dredge too alongside all the other regulars.

This deck will keep evolving to power out hogaak very early until hogaak is removed from the game. I don't think we should just play whack a mole with this for the next year adding 2-3-4 more cards to the ban list. The better option is to ban the hogaak and be done with it.
I definitely agree that Hogaak itself is the biggest problem in the Hogaak deck. However, I am increasingly concerned about the domino effect Looting has in the remaining decks. Specifically, it enables not just Hogaak, but Phoenix, which has otherwise been been the most dominant competitive deck since Arclight Phoenix was printed, other than the recent broken absurdity of Hogaak, and continues to hide in plain sight as Hogaak holds the spotlight.

Edit: I also say this as someone who has had Phoenix be one of their primary decks since Phoenix was printed. I don't have a current picture since I've been on Bloo lately, but my old list shows a lot of the fun stuff, foils, etc. I would be totally OK, and frankly happy, with Looting being gone and forcing Phoenix to adapt or die.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Specifically, it enables not just Hogaak, but Phoenix, which has otherwise been been the most dominant competitive deck since Arclight Phoenix was printed, other than the recent broken absurdity of Hogaak, and continues to hide in plain sight as Hogaak holds the spotlight.
Pretty sure looking at the Day 2 percentages, what we are seeing is Hogaak scalping the top off of Phoenix play rates, and on top of the fundamental difference in power (Hogaak is Tier 0, accept it folks) with the rise of Jund to being a real deck, Phoenix is taking a hit.

Phoenix also takes a hit, on the GAIN from other decks with the London Mull.

Regardless, anyone like I see on Twitter pointing to the Top 8 of the PT is...delusional. Its like they forget that the record is tainted by Limited.

SCG Open Top 32.

Winner: G-Tron

Counts
Hogaak - 10/32
Humans - 4/32
Amulet - 3/32
G(w) Tron - 3/32
E Tron - 3/32
UR Phoenix - 2/32
Urza - 2/32
GW Counters - 1/32
R Phoenix - 1
RG Phoenix (W6) - 1
TitanShift - 1
Jund - 1

Mono-Green Tron
Hogaak
Hogaak
Izzet Phoenix
Hogaak
Mono-Green Tron
Hogaak
Grixis Urza

Counters Company
BreachShift
Grixis Urza
Humans
Gruul Phoenix
Hogaak
Eldrazi Tron
Izzet Phoenix

Amulet Titan
Hogaak
Mono-Red Phoenix
Humans
Eldrazi Tron
Humans
Hogaak
Jund

Humans
Hogaak
Hogaak
Hogaak
Amulet Titan
Amulet Titan
Selesnya Tron
Eldrazi Tron

There also was a GP this weekend, but I'm not finding results (and I dont touch Reddit) and apparently there WAS a Modern Classic, but lists are not posted yet for SCG.

EDIT: Here's the Top 8 for the GP!



UR Phoenix
E-Tron
Urza
Jund
Jund
Hogaak
Esper Control
Humans
UR Control UR

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Phoenix is a deck that had:
0 Top 8's and 45% Win rate in GP Dallas
0 Top 8's in Pro Tour Barcelona and 50% win rate
Yes, let's completely ignore that the MC Top 8 was heavily skewed by 6 rounds of Limited, and that both Hogaak and Phoenix would have dominated the Top 8 if we were going on Modern records alone. And that you cite Dallas, a single GP, during a massive, chaotic upheaval of the format, and conveniently neglect to remember the previous nine GPs, where it put up numbers that would embarrass Splinter Twin, and nearly reflect Birthing Pod.
Numbers Refresher
Show
Since Printing Phoenix until GP Yokohama (7 months)
Total GPs: 9
Total copies of Phoenix in T8: 14
Avg copies per GP: 1.55 (2, 2, 2, 1w, 2, 0, 2w, 2, 1)
Wins: 2

Twin in 2015 (Banned)
Total GPs: 8
Total copies of Twin in T8: 10
Avg copies per GP: 1.25 (3w, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1w, 0)
Wins: 2

Pod in 2014 (Banned)
Total GPs: 8
Total Copies of Pod in T8: 15
Avg copies per GP: 1.875 (1, 6w, 2, 0, 0, 3, 2w, 1w)
Wins: 3
It did have some great results, before War of the Sparks, but War, Narset, Karn and Teferi nailed the deck. It is clearly on decline as you can see.
Why do you believe this? It was still one of the most successful and prominent decks at the MC, which was the first real, large tournament after the chaos of WAR/MH1/London Mull.
That all said, the narrative the data less banmania about Izzet phoenix should stop, deck's fine.
Just because you choose to ignore the data doesn't mean it's not there. Besides Hogaak, Phoenix is the most bannable deck by a considerable margin. That is, as long as rules and precedent still matter, which is currently extremely unclear.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

And now, the Modern Classic Top 16. I was going to make a funny about Hogaak not showing up, because all its players where were still live deep into Day 2, but...there's 2 more Hogaak here. Also, 2 RG Phoenix, I believe this is a Team, apparently they think they have something here but its really just Mono R, with a splash for 3 Main Deck W6. Big zzzz from me on that innovation.

Four-Color Urza
Amulet Titan
Humans
Mono-Green Tron
Jund
Dredge
Merfolk
Gruul Phoenix

Four-Color Urza
Azorius Spirits
Gruul Phoenix
Azorius Control
Jund
Hogaak
Hogaak
Eldrazi Tron
UR Control UR

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
metalmusic_4 wrote:
1 year ago
Just to clarify my position. I am a hogaak player, so I don't WANT a ban, I believe a ban is what should happen to protect the format. I want to protect the size od rhe ban list though, it should be as small as possible. Now that a ban is needed you have to pick the card. I firmly vote on banning hogaak. If FL gets the ban I will take out red and use blue and put hedron crab in. That gives me hedron crab, stichers supplier, satyr wayfinder to get cards from my library to the grave and to get them out of my hand I may use lotleth troll and rotting regisaure, maybe dark blast for some dredge too alongside all the other regulars.

This deck will keep evolving to power out hogaak very early until hogaak is removed from the game. I don't think we should just play whack a mole with this for the next year adding 2-3-4 more cards to the ban list. The better option is to ban the hogaak and be done with it.
I definitely agree that Hogaak itself is the biggest problem in the Hogaak deck. However, I am increasingly concerned about the domino effect Looting has in the remaining decks. Specifically, it enables not just Hogaak, but Phoenix, which has otherwise been been the most dominant competitive deck since Arclight Phoenix was printed, other than the recent broken absurdity of Hogaak, and continues to hide in plain sight as Hogaak holds the spotlight.

Edit: I also say this as someone who has had Phoenix be one of their primary decks since Phoenix was printed. I don't have a current picture since I've been on Bloo lately, but my old list shows a lot of the fun stuff, foils, etc. I would be totally OK, and frankly happy, with Looting being gone and forcing Phoenix to adapt or die.
Maybe I'm just not understanding what you are trying to say, but im really trying here. We agree hogaak is the biggest problem and it likely will be persistently. We agree FL is powerful, used widely and has several points against it with comparable logic to the probe ban.

I'm saying we have a BIG problem at hand, fix that problem cleanly → ban hogaak. I think you feel pheonix decks are too dominate too and you would like to hit them both with a FL ban, you may feel that way about more GY decks too like dredge maybe, is that about right? Do you also think a FL ban will solve the hogaak problem without requiring other bans?

Pheonix was what I beat in the finals of my event this weekend. It's a powerful consistent teir 1 deck IMO, but I'm not ready to take action against it.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

I think its a given at this point Hogaak needs to be hit again. Looking at some lists, there is no clean 1 for 1 replacement for looting, but is that enough? I mean honestly I LIKE Hogaak, it actually has neat lines of play unlike some other decks.

It is just too strong for the decks that in Modern right now.

So either we play wack-a-mole, and hit Looting (and all the associated collateral damage) or we just hit Hogaak, and go back to Phoenix/Dredge as the GY decks.

I'm not really for or against either at this point, but something needs to be banned and that sucks.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

I am openly and brazenly in support of banning both Hogaak itself and Faithless Looting. At least then I don't have to say "I told you so" when Looting gets other decks banned in the coming year or so, while remaining legal itself.

Meanwhile, Preordain is still banned, mind you.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

Thank you for clarifying your position. You know what we need? A new ban/unban poll! The ban choices should have every core hogaak deck card on it and then we can see easily where consinces is building.

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Post by Albegas » 1 year ago

I haven't really found a good jumping point for the discussions, so I thought it'd be easier for me to just unload my thoughts on a lot of these discussions:

RE: Hogaak
I really wish Hogaak was trampled in the MC. Just as Jund shouldn't have eaten two bans when DRS was running rampant, no deck should ever have to eat two consecutive bans, and my condolences to those playing BridgeVine before MH. Unlike said iteration of Jund, Bridgevine decks can't just slot in the next best card if Hogaak eats a ban. It really hurts that Hogaak is basically doing what GGT did right before its ban but better, and I do hope that if WotC hits Hogaak (which seems like the most likely card if they do) then I hope that there's some sort of replacement lined up in MH2. I'm thinking some sort of pair of mini-Hogaaks (one with Delve and one with Convoke) with CMC 6 and P/T 4/4 would help former and current Bridgevine players recover. It seems proven that 8/8s are hard to deal with outside of white, but a 4/4 would be easier to solve, and at a CMC similar to Hogaak, it probably wouldn't be as bad as Hogaak is proving itself to be.

RE: Phoenix
It's really hard for me to have a decisive opinion on Phoenix. As CFP laid out, it can't be denied that Phoenix is likely be the best deck in the format after Hogaak. However, between Hogaak's dominance and Phoenix's short period of under-performance right before its reign, it's really hard for me to make any real conclusion on Phoenix. I'd rather see what happens to Hogaak at the end of August and revisit Phoenix when the dust settles rather than make an assumption that Phoenix will continue to dominate long after Hogaak's reign ends.

RE: Looting
Looting seems to be in a weird place in Modern. If you look at Legacy, there are very few GY decks in Legacy despite having almost the same number of tools to deal with them as we have. It leads me to believe that the sole defining difference is Force of Will. At the same time, we have a tool that seems to deal with almost every GY set-up tool in the form of Force of Negation. So why do we struggle with GY decks when Legacy has about one or two? I think the reason is two-fold. One is the obvious: FoW is better than FoN. The other is probably more important and yet more neglected: blue defines Legacy. When blue is the most powerful color in Legacy, it comes off as less of an opportunity cost. Trying to push blue onto most Modern decks to push FoN to that same level is beyond foolhardy, it's borderline ignorant.

So if forcing Blue on everyone is ignorant, what do we do? Frankly, we just don't have a lot of good MD tools that deal with GY without being dead in non-GY matchups. Kaya's Guile is actually a good first step: it can deal with GY in matchups that matter while having other modes for matchups where GY is less relevant. We desperately need more cards like this if Modern is going to maintain its color diversity without being defined by GY decks, which seem to be the only angle of attack that Modern as a whole struggles to deal with.

So where does that leave us in the meantime? We could ban Looting, but without Careful Study or a similar equivalent, I think that it puts Modern at risk of becoming just an extension of Standard. If players can neither attack from the GY nor the deck a la Pod, we lose a lot of that diversity that makes Modern unique. So, while Looting may be too powerful of an enabler, I'd rather we wait until a nerfed equivalent exists before doing anything to Looting. It's not ideal, but to me a diverse meta with Looting is simply more interesting than one without it.

tl;dr
-Hogaak was a fun experiment and I really hope that regardless of what happens in the next few months, Hogaak players find something to run that they like. If they don't, I hope WotC experiments more and creates something that lets them be happy
-Between Phoenix's short slump and Hogaak's dominance, I think it's too soon to worry about Phoenix. See what happens with Hogaak before even worrying about Phoenix
-Until other colors get better maindeck answers to GY or until a weaker version of Looting comes out, I'd rather keep it in the format for better or worse. I don't believe that this is a "correct" opinion, simply the one I have after years of observing Modern and Legacy
cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
I am openly and brazenly in support of banning both Hogaak itself and Faithless Looting. At least then I don't have to say "I told you so" when Looting gets other decks banned in the coming year or so, while remaining legal itself.

Meanwhile, Preordain is still banned, mind you.
I don't think this gets said enough, but while I agree that Preordain is fine in comparison to Looting and Stirrings, Wizards won't unban it any time soon, and it's not because it's as good or better than Looting or Stirrings. It's because it immediately slots into two tier 1 decks (UW Control and Phoenix), one of which is on of the best decks in the format. As far as Wizards is likely concerned, unbanning Preordain just boosts two T1 decks without giving weaker decks a greater gain than those decks. So long as two of the best decks in the format are blue, we aren't getting Preordain, no matter how small the gains for those decks are.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Albegas wrote:
1 year ago
I haven't really found a good jumping point for the discussions, so I thought it'd be easier for me to just unload my thoughts on a lot of these discussions:
Spoiler
Show
RE: Hogaak
I really wish Hogaak was trampled in the MC. Just as Jund shouldn't have eaten two bans when DRS was running rampant, no deck should ever have to eat two consecutive bans, and my condolences to those playing BridgeVine before MH. Unlike said iteration of Jund, Bridgevine decks can't just slot in the next best card if Hogaak eats a ban. It really hurts that Hogaak is basically doing what GGT did right before its ban but better, and I do hope that if WotC hits Hogaak (which seems like the most likely card if they do) then I hope that there's some sort of replacement lined up in MH2. I'm thinking some sort of pair of mini-Hogaaks (one with Delve and one with Convoke) with CMC 6 and P/T 4/4 would help former and current Bridgevine players recover. It seems proven that 8/8s are hard to deal with outside of white, but a 4/4 would be easier to solve, and at a CMC similar to Hogaak, it probably wouldn't be as bad as Hogaak is proving itself to be.

RE: Phoenix
It's really hard for me to have a decisive opinion on Phoenix. As CFP laid out, it can't be denied that Phoenix is likely be the best deck in the format after Hogaak. However, between Hogaak's dominance and Phoenix's short period of under-performance right before its reign, it's really hard for me to make any real conclusion on Phoenix. I'd rather see what happens to Hogaak at the end of August and revisit Phoenix when the dust settles rather than make an assumption that Phoenix will continue to dominate long after Hogaak's reign ends.

RE: Looting
Looting seems to be in a weird place in Modern. If you look at Legacy, there are very few GY decks in Legacy despite having almost the same number of tools to deal with them as we have. It leads me to believe that the sole defining difference is Force of Will. At the same time, we have a tool that seems to deal with almost every GY set-up tool in the form of Force of Negation. So why do we struggle with GY decks when Legacy has about one or two? I think the reason is two-fold. One is the obvious: FoW is better than FoN. The other is probably more important and yet more neglected: blue defines Legacy. When blue is the most powerful color in Legacy, it comes off as less of an opportunity cost. Trying to push blue onto most Modern decks to push FoN to that same level is beyond foolhardy, it's borderline ignorant.

So if forcing Blue on everyone is ignorant, what do we do? Frankly, we just don't have a lot of good MD tools that deal with GY without being dead in non-GY matchups. Kaya's Guile is actually a good first step: it can deal with GY in matchups that matter while having other modes for matchups where GY is less relevant. We desperately need more cards like this if Modern is going to maintain its color diversity without being defined by GY decks, which seem to be the only angle of attack that Modern as a whole struggles to deal with.

So where does that leave us in the meantime? We could ban Looting, but without Careful Study or a similar equivalent, I think that it puts Modern at risk of becoming just an extension of Standard. If players can neither attack from the GY nor the deck a la Pod, we lose a lot of that diversity that makes Modern unique. So, while Looting may be too powerful of an enabler, I'd rather we wait until a nerfed equivalent exists before doing anything to Looting. It's not ideal, but to me a diverse meta with Looting is simply more interesting than one without it.

tl;dr
-Hogaak was a fun experiment and I really hope that regardless of what happens in the next few months, Hogaak players find something to run that they like. If they don't, I hope WotC experiments more and creates something that lets them be happy
-Between Phoenix's short slump and Hogaak's dominance, I think it's too soon to worry about Phoenix. See what happens with Hogaak before even worrying about Phoenix
-Until other colors get better maindeck answers to GY or until a weaker version of Looting comes out, I'd rather keep it in the format for better or worse. I don't believe that this is a "correct" opinion, simply the one I have after years of observing Modern and Legacy
cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
I am openly and brazenly in support of banning both Hogaak itself and Faithless Looting. At least then I don't have to say "I told you so" when Looting gets other decks banned in the coming year or so, while remaining legal itself.

Meanwhile, Preordain is still banned, mind you.
I don't think this gets said enough, but while I agree that Preordain is fine in comparison to Looting and Stirrings, Wizards won't unban it any time soon, and it's not because it's as good or better than Looting or Stirrings. It's because it immediately slots into two tier 1 decks (UW Control and Phoenix), one of which is on of the best decks in the format. As far as Wizards is likely concerned, unbanning Preordain just boosts two T1 decks without giving weaker decks a greater gain than those decks. So long as two of the best decks in the format are blue, we aren't getting Preordain, no matter how small the gains for those decks are.
Agreed with most of that.

Re Hogaak: I think what else makes it so good is that it's basically a Death's Shadow, but with Trample and without the drawback of killing yourself. Never mind being essentially free and re-castable from yard. It's shown us that it's still busted and needs to go. Sucks to be hit with a double ban, but how many times has WOTC banned the wrong card now? Either too much or too little, they repeatedly display lack of understanding of the nuances of deckbuilding and construction.

Re Force of Negation: I think for FoN to be a true police card and not some neat flashy toy is it either needed to be free at any time or it needed to hit creatures. Maybe not both of these, but I would GLADLY trade the exile clause for either of these. As now, Negate is simply dead a lot of times. Especially to creature-based GY decks like Hogaak and Dredge.

Re Proeordain: Yeah, I have no delusions that it will ever come off. I just think it's silly to see Looting, which is considerably better and more powerful, remain legal (and people defending that it should remain legal).

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

FoN hitting everything would be massive overkill. UW would be unbearable.
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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

Is there anyone in here who thinks FL alone should be the ban, and not Hogaak? Personally, I think if you leave Hogaak and ban FL, it'll do almost nothing and Hogaak will still be busted. 0 mana 8/8 tramplers that you can recur from your graveyard shouldn't exist in Modern. It's just a broken card that needs to go.

I've always said that I think it's inconsistent how Faithless Looting and Ancient Stirrings are legal in Modern, but Preordain and Ponder are not. That is my biggest gripe with FL and AS. Let's be consistent, either unban Preordain and Ponder, or ban Faithless Looting and Ancient Stirrings. That said, I would rather they unbanned the blue cantrips. Does FL enable a lot of graveyard decks? Sure. Is that really a problem as long as each of those decks are an appropriate power level? I don't think so. I want to see them ban Hogaak and then see what the format does after that. I, for one, have never thought Phoenix was a problem. It's MWP since it rose to prominence has always just been fine. It was never the slamdunk best deck that some people hyped it up to be. We've also got Jund back and the strongest its been since the Twin ban, which is cool. We might have an actually interesting format on our hands after Hogaak is gone.
Modern
ubr Grixis Shadow ubr
uwg Bant Stoneblade uwg
gbr Jund gbr

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bg Meren of Clan Nel Toth bg

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

There's no point in banning Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis when Bridge from Below already took the ban for it. Everyone knew that Hogaak was the correct ban anyway, but Wizards essentially "told us that they are NOT going to ban Hogaak." So they may as well UNBAN Bridge from Below, a card that hardly ever did anything in Modern, outside of some Bridgevine lists during a Pro Tour when Stitcher's Supplier came out. That's all Bridge from Below ever did.

How do I know? I play a lot of Modern. I move from deck to deck quite frequently. I never used the card, Bridge from Below in Modern until Stitcher's Supplier gave us ... Bridge Vine. Then I got scummed out of a top 8 at a PPTQ and went 2-4 at another PPTQ with it. (did very well in local tournaments, but I'd happily switch that around for how I did at the PPTQs)

*I would like to ask a question aimed at those who don't want Stoneforge Mystic in Modern because it "turns Modern into Legacy." My question is this ... does Force of Negation already "turn us into Legacy?" I mean, luckily for us, it's not EVERY SPELL. That would be a strictly better Force of Will and Force of Will would see no monetary value outside of a reserve list collector's card.

**To be more transparent if it's not already well known (I'm going to say what I said months ago) - Bridge from Below should NOT have gotten banned. I'm not saying Hogaak is as good as Mishra's Workshop or Brainstorm like someone else here tried to twist my words. I said that banning a lesser problem card because of the real problem card and then going down that slippery slope is one that may never stop.
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Post by Simto » 1 year ago

If looting got banned, there would instantly pop a new deck up people would be yelling bans for. And thus the cycle never ends until only basic lands remains.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
There's no point in banning Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis when Bridge from Below already took the ban for it. Everyone knew that Hogaak was the correct ban anyway, but Wizards essentially "told us that they are NOT going to ban Hogaak." So they may as well UNBAN Bridge from Below, a card that hardly ever did anything in Modern, outside of some Bridgevine lists during a Pro Tour when Stitcher's Supplier came out. That's all Bridge from Below ever did.
I agree with this point completely. Unfortunately we now have another BBE / DRS situation. IF they had banned hogaak first Bridgevine would have survived as a lower teir deck like it was, but now it will just be dead. I dont think the hogaak shell will be teir at all without hogaak or bridge. They made a ban choice too quickly and they just messed up, we'll see what they do about that, probably nothing.

I do not think a FL ban alone will fix the hogaak problem. FL may eat a ban now or at some point in the future but not banning hogaak will just result in filing the grave with stitcher's suppliers, hedron crabs, or something else. We should ban the min number of cards and not banning hogaak will lead to more bans.

There are cards to unban that they could do after they ban hogaak, but they wont with a problem this size on their hands. UNBAN: Bridge from below (maybe in a couple of years, but probably never), SFM, and Twin, GSZ I think is less likely right now with the additions and success counters company has seen recently. I personally think bridge will be the joke on the ban list if hogaak is banned.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
Until Hogaak and other looting based decks are out of poularity folks need to be running 3-4 GY hate card at a minimum.
responding to your post at "How much graveyard removal in the main" thread. Looting decks won't be going down in popularity anytime soon. Wotc even reprinted leyline of the void. It could be a sign that they're willing to let looting romp around in modern for a long time.
I am curious about why people believe it is so unhealthy to play maindecked graveyard hate in Modern. I'm not saying it's healthy; I'm just wondering what the rationale is behind this argument. Is it because the graveyard is a resource we aren't supposed to use? Is it because graveyard decks are much harder to beat unless you have the hate piece? Is it because graveyard decks are unusually resilient to all other forms of interaction, invalidating cards you need for other matchups? Is it because Wizards has signaled this in the past (e.g. GGT ban language) and now isn't following through? Other reasons / some combination of the above? I'm just curious about what reasoning is behind this position which has become increasingly common online.
there are probably several reasons why people don't like to have gy removal in the main. In my case, depends on the deck. For example, my bg delirium had some default scavenging ooze in the main even before Hollow One debuted in modern.. so my bg deck is just fine. What I find unpleasant is now, even decks that don't normally have gy removal main are forced to have it.. for example, uw did not have gy removal main before, Now, I'm forced to stick in three remorseful cleric as a hedge against yard decks. Of course, yard decks are not the only decks in modern.. so when my uw encounters a non-gy deck like Burn, Humans, Merfolk.. the clerics feel bad to draw, at best they are chump blockers. :sick:

sorry, late reply. Got engaged in a long discussion on a non-mtg forum yesterday. Afterwards, was too dazed with sleep to do a post here. :sleepy:
_______________

One direction WoTC can take is to print more cards like Kaya's Guile, as it is usable even when the opponent is not a gy deck. Having two or three of it in the main does not feel bad at all. :)
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Post by robertleva » 1 year ago

Is this even a real question? Who the heck DOES like to run GY hate, or any other hate card main deck that wasn't supposed to be there already? These types of cards are what you run to deal with holes or blank spots in your overall strategy, they add nothing to whichever game plan they are being shoehorned into...
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Only deck I've been fine with including it in the main is Surgical in Phoenix because when you are a linear deck that just cares about spells being cast, it costs you really next to nothing.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
both Hogaak and Phoenix would have dominated the Top 8 if we were going on Modern records alone.

How is that? If you take into account the 20 players that did pick up at least 24 points playing those 10 rounds, only 1 Izzet Phoenix player is in there! Oh, and 11 Hogaak. Do the math and compare those two. Big hypothesis there of you, that is wrong.
Yes, that math says that 4 of the top 8 would be Hogaak and 0-1 would be Phoenix. But since you do not listen to anything I say anymore anyway, I'll take it that you still don't understand my views. So I will spell it out explicitly clear:
  • Hogaak is a problem. It is Tier 0 and busted. This is not really up for contention.
  • Phoenix is the best deck in Modern behind Hogaak. It was the most dominant competitive force for nearly a year, and remains the 2nd best deck while a Tier 0 deck is still running rampant.
  • Phoenix saw success even when everyone in the field was prepared and packed with hate. Imagine what happens when people aren't main decking Surgicals and Leylines?
  • Once Hogaak is banned, Phoenix will likely return to the defacto best deck, and likely continue it's reign of the very same competitive dominance that got several past decks banned. (Thanks to already being the best deck, and then getting several powerful, meaningful upgrades, and showing it can win through hate).
  • If that continues to happen, something from Phoenix absolutely could and should be banned.
This is using current and past data and observations in order to extrapolate predictions about what could be coming. It's about looking at trends and patterns, and not singling out one or two events as indicative of the bigger picture. Again, you talk about data, but then OPENLY AND REPEATEDLY ignore a year's worth of data and the knowledge that the best deck in Modern just got no fewer than 7 big, meaningful upgrades in the last two months. If you want to ignore me, fine, but don't talk about data when you choose to ignore so much of that, too.
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

The only factor I can think of that would have really impacted Phoenix.

1. Considerable GY hate is floating around right now due to Hogaak. More than people played when it was Phoenix/Dredge at the top.
2. The London Mull is helping everyone else not lose to their own deck, and so the minor % points from Phoenix not losing to itself, is mitigated.

Thats it.

People wanted to pretend that its not a GY deck, but it always was, just like any other good Modern deck though, it had pivot's to other plans. There is a reason Aria was added to the deck, to MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF GY HATE.

I think its actually possible the London Mull helps other decks, that dont run 20+ Cantrips, enough that assuming people continue to bring 5 or 6 GY hate cards, that Phoenix is kept contained and just floats around as the best deck in the format.

There has been 1 GP since it became a thing, in which it did not Top 8, and even the GP yesterday had 1 Top 8, and 2 (3 if you count R Phoenix) Top 16. Yeah its time has certainly come and gone... :smirk:
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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Giant response to lots of different people. If I've missed someone who wanted me to reply, just @ me and I'll get on that.
metalmusic_4 wrote:
1 year ago
Thank you for clarifying your position. You know what we need? A new ban/unban poll! The ban choices should have every core hogaak deck card on it and then we can see easily where consinces is building.
We'll definitely do one as we get closer to the 08/26 update. The funny thing is, I think there's a series of GP literally the weekend before that Monday, so our banlist results won't consider standings at that event. I don't think it will matter too much, and will probably post the poll on 08/12 or 08/19. @ me if I forget or if you have a preference between the 12th and the 19th.
Albegas wrote:
1 year ago
I haven't really found a good jumping point for the discussions, so I thought it'd be easier for me to just unload my thoughts on a lot of these discussions:
Amen. This thread can get hard to keep up with and/or jump into.
tl;dr
-Hogaak was a fun experiment and I really hope that regardless of what happens in the next few months, Hogaak players find something to run that they like. If they don't, I hope WotC experiments more and creates something that lets them be happy
-Between Phoenix's short slump and Hogaak's dominance, I think it's too soon to worry about Phoenix. See what happens with Hogaak before even worrying about Phoenix
-Until other colors get better maindeck answers to GY or until a weaker version of Looting comes out, I'd rather keep it in the format for better or worse. I don't believe that this is a "correct" opinion, simply the one I have after years of observing Modern and Legacy
Going to reply to your TLDR having read the rest of your post too; if you feel I've misrepresented something by doing so, let me know.

I agree Wizards should be experimenting with cards like Hogaak; there's a lot of non-rotating format design space Wizards needs to keep exploring. I just hope it's more in the direction of reactive, generic answers like FoN/FoV and not proactive haymakers like Hogaak. Time will tell and I suspect MH1 was successful enough we'll see an MH2 soon enough. Regarding Phoenix, I also don't see Wizards taking any action in such a warped period of time as this Hogaak situation. I know CFP (and potentially others) talked about GY hate also impacting Phoenix, but I remember a number of Phoenix pilots noting GY hate was way less effective than people thought. This is due to Aria, Ascension, Crackling Drake, and/or Thing, depending on what build and threat suite you are running. The only time Wizards has proactively banned the next best thing after banning a clear offender was TC and DTT, but that was more of a case of a one-for-one card replacement, not a deck replacement. As for Looting, I don't have any issue with Looting being legal as long as we have answers to Looting strategies (we mostly do, except Hogaak potentially), AND if other strategies get comparable tools. The Preordain/Ponder discrepancy with Stirrings/Looting is both complicated and glaring as of late, and it's something I'm going to get back to later in this post.
I don't think this gets said enough, but while I agree that Preordain is fine in comparison to Looting and Stirrings, Wizards won't unban it any time soon, and it's not because it's as good or better than Looting or Stirrings. It's because it immediately slots into two tier 1 decks (UW Control and Phoenix), one of which is on of the best decks in the format. As far as Wizards is likely concerned, unbanning Preordain just boosts two T1 decks without giving weaker decks a greater gain than those decks. So long as two of the best decks in the format are blue, we aren't getting Preordain, no matter how small the gains for those decks are.
cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
I am openly and brazenly in support of banning both Hogaak itself and Faithless Looting. At least then I don't have to say "I told you so" when Looting gets other decks banned in the coming year or so, while remaining legal itself.

Meanwhile, Preordain is still banned, mind you.
Wraithpk wrote:
1 year ago
I've always said that I think it's inconsistent how Faithless Looting and Ancient Stirrings are legal in Modern, but Preordain and Ponder are not. That is my biggest gripe with FL and AS. Let's be consistent, either unban Preordain and Ponder, or ban Faithless Looting and Ancient Stirrings. That said, I would rather they unbanned the blue cantrips. Does FL enable a lot of graveyard decks? Sure. Is that really a problem as long as each of those decks are an appropriate power level? I don't think so. I want to see them ban Hogaak and then see what the format does after that. I, for one, have never thought Phoenix was a problem. It's MWP since it rose to prominence has always just been fine. It was never the slamdunk best deck that some people hyped it up to be. We've also got Jund back and the strongest its been since the Twin ban, which is cool. We might have an actually interesting format on our hands after Hogaak is gone.
Grouping all of these to discuss the P&P vs. AS/FL issue. On the one hand, I largely agree that Preordain should return to Modern, with some caveats I'll discuss shortly. The key argument against Preordain is that any deck can use it and it imposes no deckbuilding restrictions. This argument is quite simply not meaningful anymore, given how many top decks are using FL and AS to take advantage of their comparatively higher power level. Moreover, I would even argue FL especially has unique advantages Preordain cannot leverage: it stocks the GY. This actually does the opposite of imposing deckbuilding restrictions; it creates deckbuilding opportunities Preordain does not. Similarly, Preordain creates deckbuilding opportunities for blue-based strategies that are looking for specific tools and/or leveraging a tempo gameplan. The latter is particularly absent from Modern these days, and Preordain could address that. Preordain also decreases variance in accessing answers, which is a big reason Legacy is able to be a slower format (Brainstorm, P&P + Daze/Fow/etc.) despite significantly stronger/faster threats, and is a big complaint people have about Modern.

There are a few issues with the Preordain unban, however, that we have to acknowledge. The first is that, as others pointed out, it immediately slots into UW Control and Izzet Phoenix. These are two top-tier decks that I sincerely doubt Wizards thinks need help, and I am unaware of any other unban where Wizards unleashed a card into not just one but two top-tier strategies. This makes this unban less likely and potentially risky. The other issue with the Preordain unban is it hinges on a discrepancy with FL/AS. If Preordain gets unbanned, it makes FL/AS ban talk significantly less defensible. I'm fine with that because I think most ban talk isn't defensible, but I've seen a ton of anti-FL statements in this thread and throughout the weekend. It would be hard to argue it both ways (i.e. "ban FL and unban Preordain"). It almost has to be an "either/or" statement. I think the pros of unbanning Preordain probably outweigh the cons, but we need to acknowledge them in our arguments.
cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Re Force of Negation: I think for FoN to be a true police card and not some neat flashy toy is it either needed to be free at any time or it needed to hit creatures. Maybe not both of these, but I would GLADLY trade the exile clause for either of these. As now, Negate is simply dead a lot of times. Especially to creature-based GY decks like Hogaak and Dredge.
I actually think FoN is fine against Dredge, which depends on three spell-based engines to do its business: Looting, Conflagrate, and Life from the Loam. Add in Shriekhorn for some builds. It's horrible against Hogaak because that deck uses crap like Stitcher's Supplier, Satyr Wayfinder, Hedron Crab (sub-optimal, but a thing), etc. to do broken things. Again, this is just another strike against Hogaak, a deck that will likely continue its MC4 trend of offensive performance statistics as the month progresses.

In my experience, FoN does have problems, but it's these two. First, it can be a mismatched answer in matchups that have some spells and some creatures. For instance, against Hardened Scales or Affinity, maybe the opponent kept a hand leveraging the enchantment or Opal or Cranial Plating, in which case FoN is great. But maybe the opponent just kept a creature-heavy hand leveraging Ravagers, Overseers, Hangarbacks, etc. and now your FoN is totally dead. FoW never has this issue, and I know Wizards deliberately designed FoN to be less universal, but that creates problems in a diverse format like Modern.

Second, FoN has some top-tier matchups where it's totally flat. The biggest of these is Humans, where you're really stuck on Vial or bust. But even this gets you into the same problem I cited above, because maybe Humans leads with Vial, or maybe leads with Hierarch/Champion. It also feels really bad against some ramp decks, where you're stuck on a non-universal counterspell and your opponent is playing Prime Time. YIkes.

All that being said, I think FoN is a lot better than most people give credit. I suspect we see a lot more FoN in the future after this Hogaak thing settles down; it's actively bad against that deck.
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
There's no point in banning Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis when Bridge from Below already took the ban for it. Everyone knew that Hogaak was the correct ban anyway, but Wizards essentially "told us that they are NOT going to ban Hogaak." So they may as well UNBAN Bridge from Below, a card that hardly ever did anything in Modern, outside of some Bridgevine lists during a Pro Tour when Stitcher's Supplier came out. That's all Bridge from Below ever did.

How do I know? I play a lot of Modern. I move from deck to deck quite frequently. I never used the card, Bridge from Below in Modern until Stitcher's Supplier gave us ... Bridge Vine. Then I got scummed out of a top 8 at a PPTQ and went 2-4 at another PPTQ with it. (did very well in local tournaments, but I'd happily switch that around for how I did at the PPTQs)
The decision to ban Hogaak will be, and should be, made independently from the Bridge ban. If the deck remains broken, they're not going to deliberately avoid Hogaak because they didn't ban enough cards. I can't think of any area in society where a management group will fail to fix a problem and just leave it broken because they already used up their one try. They're just going to ban something new. Could they unban Bridge in a concession to messing up? Maybe but probably not. Many of the arguments against Bridge in the article would still be true, in that it insulates against removal and has strong synergies with Feeder/Altar. Also, can you even imagine what would happen if they banned Hogaak, unbanned Bridge, and then an Altar/Feeder/Bridge Dredge deck got big, forcing them to RE-BAN BRIDGE?? Modern would just break. It seems extremely unlikely Wizards risks that scenario.
**To be more transparent if it's not already well known (I'm going to say what I said months ago) - Bridge from Below should NOT have gotten banned. I'm not saying Hogaak is as good as Mishra's Workshop or Brainstorm like someone else here tried to twist my words. I said that banning a lesser problem card because of the real problem card and then going down that slippery slope is one that may never stop.
The issue is Hogaak is potentially a problem independently of FL. There are always going to be cheap 1-2 mana GY fillers coming through Standard. We can't ban all the Suppliers and Wayfinders and Shriekhorns and other crap that can get Hogaak into the GY and out in the T2-T3 range. We may still need to explore FL in Modern, but Hogaak itself will be creating imbalances whether or not FL is around.
The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
there are probably several reasons why people don't like to have gy removal in the main. In my case, depends on the deck. For example, my bg delirium had some default scavenging ooze in the main even before Hollow One debuted in modern.. so my bg deck is just fine. What I find unpleasant is now, even decks that don't normally have gy removal main are forced to have it.. for example, uw did not have gy removal main before, Now, I'm forced to stick in three remorseful cleric as a hedge against yard decks. Of course, yard decks are not the only decks in modern.. so when my uw encounters a non-gy deck like Burn, Humans, Merfolk.. the clerics feel bad to draw, at best they are chump blockers. :sick:
Yeah, I think the issue is twofold. First, people don't want to dilute their gameplan to hedge against decks they may or may not run into. Remorseful Cleric is not what I want to be drawing against Tron, for example. This is in contrast to Scavenging Ooze, which has relevance in a lot more matchups and gets at your point about more universally applicable cards like Kaya's Guile. Second, I think people are annoyed by how decisive the GY hate is. If I don't have T1 discard against Storm, I can still probably hold the line with a T2 Bolt/Push/Path on the Baral/Electromancer. Or a counterspell on that creature in the first place, or even at the Gifts they fire off. There's counterplay on multiple axes. With some GY decks, those axes get shut down in a big way, leaving you stuck on did you or did you not draw the GY hate.
robertleva wrote:
1 year ago
Is this even a real question? Who the heck DOES like to run GY hate, or any other hate card main deck that wasn't supposed to be there already? These types of cards are what you run to deal with holes or blank spots in your overall strategy, they add nothing to whichever game plan they are being shoehorned into...
Again, I'm going to encourage you and anyone else using this kind of strong language to avoid questions like "is this even a real question?" It's borderline trolling when I asked the question and phrased it as I did. It's also a much more open question than you are making it out to be, which is the other danger of these kinds of sweeping, sarcastic reductions of arguments. No one has any issue with many green decks running MD Scavenging Ooze. It's the kind of universal answer/threat package we're cool with in Modern. No one cares if UWx is running Verdict and Wrath even if they are largely dead or at least super inefficient in a number of matchups (the mirror, Titanshift, Amulet Bloom, Storm, etc.). We also wouldn't care if we saw BWx decks playing Kaya's Guile, or BRx strategies running K-Command as a hedge against artifacts and for value.

The problem arises when we see super specialized GY hate that is completely dead in other matches. Leyline of the Void is particularly bad, because it's actively useless against some major top-tier Modern decks: E-Tron (I don't want to hear any nonsense about Buried Ruin), G-Tron, Humans, etc. Yixlid Jailer would be another one, because no one plays Goblin Piker against Humans or Amulet Titan. This is contrast to acceptable GY hate, like those listed above. Another more acceptable GY hate that I'm willing to give a pass on is Surgical Extraction. It's a free spell, which we already know tends to make Modern-playable cards, and it has unique relevance against even non-GY decks. It's quite decent against Tron and other non-GY synergies in the right setup, and in its absolute worst mode reveals an opponent's hand for "free." It has way more potential upsides against even the dead matchups than crap like Leyline. I think as long as we're seeing these kinds of choices made in Modern, that's just flexible deckbuilding. Leylines. Of course, all the other caveats I mentioned about GY hate maybe being too decisive still apply.
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Post by Arkmer » 1 year ago

I think a big issue some have with the yard strategies is that their tools are hard to limit outside of a mass zone exile. Flashback (and Snapcaster by extension) has an easily defined limit. You can cast it twice, after that you need a new card. When you see that, you know you just need enough to get past that second cast. The card advantage is easily defined and always the same. With cards like Hogaak, Bloodghast, Phoenix, and whatever else, these limits are not defined. Being tethered to "chaining cantrips" might be less reliable than Flashback but it's certainly much much more repeatable. The same is true about the others. As such, I would venture that the card advantage gained from those cards is, in theory, undefined, so we resort to prison like strategies in Leyline and RiP.
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

It says a lot about the format if you look at the graveyard hate that is actually viable.

Leyline and Surgical: turn 0, see a lot of play and have been adopted by most of the decks
Nihil Spellbomb: turn 1, only Jund plays them
Relic and Rest in Peace: turn 2, just tron and every deck with white respectively

All the rest is considered too slow and even Relic and RiP are considered too slow these days. UW Control prefers Surgicals+Snap for the flashback. If you look at the Mythic CS 90% opt for Leyline and Surgicals. You need turn 0 answers because of how fast and degenerate decks have become. These cards should be considered the FOW's of Modern and you can judge yourself if you think that is a good thing or not.
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Post by robertleva » 1 year ago

This pretty much sums up a lot of posts here:

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
3) Diversity is great beneath Hogaak. No clear best deck after this one. I really believe it's one problem and one problem alone; Hogaak. The other graveyard decks seem like some fine decks and nothing more. For example, normal Dredge is nowhere to be seen.
It's a shame Hogaak exists, because Modern looks tremendously diverse, outside of Hogaak!
I think there are 2.5 important questions to answer:
1) Why would you play any other graveyard deck besides Hogaak, for as long as Hogaak remains legal?
2) What becomes the best graveyard deck once Hogaak leaves?
--> 2a) What happens if this best graveyard deck is also the best overall deck?
--> 2b) What series of data trends could we look at to make this prediction, given that all our current information is skewed by Hogaak?
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