[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

iTaLenTZ
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

People are forgetting the most important and fundamental aspects of MTG: FUN and money

Modern hasn't been fun for a very long time, Pioneer turned out to not be so fun either, Standard is well.....in shambles and then came Uro. Its just very stall and dull. Now we are heading into a financial crisis and MTG is a luxury. Between not being fun and being a luxury it will be one of the first things people will start cutting costs for. I very much believe card prizes will take a nosedive this summer and MTG as whole will see a massive drop in active players.

This will probably lead to Hasbro cutting overhead costs (less testing etc) and pushing more cards over the edge to sell packs in the short run but doing so making the game even more unfun in the medium and long run (Oko, Veil etc). We are entering a very dangerous vicious circle which could very well mean the end of MTG within 2 years.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Nah. MTG is a DISTRACTION. There is little else for those with funds, more valuable right now than a distraction.

'Fun' is also subjective. I wont even bore you with what I consider fun. Some people played Lantern...lol.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
People are forgetting the most important and fundamental aspects of MTG: FUN and money

Modern hasn't been fun for a very long time, Pioneer turned out to not be so fun either, Standard is well.....in shambles and then came Uro. Its just very stall and dull. Now we are heading into a financial crisis and MTG is a luxury. Between not being fun and being a luxury it will be one of the first things people will start cutting costs for. I very much believe card prizes will take a nosedive this summer and MTG as whole will see a massive drop in active players.

This will probably lead to Hasbro cutting overhead costs (less testing etc) and pushing more cards over the edge to sell packs in the short run but doing so making the game even more unfun in the medium and long run (Oko, Veil etc). We are entering a very dangerous vicious circle which could very well mean the end of MTG within 2 years.
There's also the VERY real expectation that paper Magic will simply not exist for 6-18 months, due to COVID-19. At least not in FNM-style, face-to-face interaction at an LGS.

While I have been playing on MTGO, I have absolutely zero expectations to be buying into anything in paper for the foreseeable future. Even if I buy into Uros and Bant lands, (upwards of $500), there's every possibility that one or more critical pieces will either be banned or supplanted by the time I could actually play it. That is a very real concern for the paper market as a whole. And with LGSs struggling or collapsing during the shutdown, it's entirely possible to see drastic losses in the paper world.

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Amalgam
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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

Honestly with no paper magic for the foreseeable future and with magic being an expensive luxury I'm in agreement that we will have massive drop offs. This isn't even mentioning how card games digitally are far past their peak in the hearthstone days and how slow wizards at actually releasing anything to the platform.

This will hurt every format but at the same time it could also outright kill Pioneer as interest in that format has dropped off considerably. If you are playing arena you only really have standard(Pioneer isn't being added anytime soon let's be real) and if you play MTGO more gravitate towards modern or legacy.
Regards we are in for some rough months and I imagine when we come out the other side most if not all formats will be in shambles

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

On the plus side, costs are gonna plummet, and we can probably pick up some good deals?
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cfusionpm
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
On the plus side, costs are gonna plummet, and we can probably pick up some good deals?
What good is buying into paper when you can't play in paper? Honestly, the only thing I am remotely considering getting are random Commander cards, because we get together on Skype to play. But competitive and FNM stuff? Hell no. Like I said, deck could be banned or obsolete by the time I actually get to play it.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Cards just to have I suppose, or things like fetches.

I have a Lake of the Dead just because that was my deck when I first played.
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

https://infinite.tcgplayer.com/article/ ... 6ogpX9on-4

Interesting article by Adam Yurchick about Modern.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - MBA, UB Inverter
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Yawmoth Chord, Uroza
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

iTaLenTZ
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
https://infinite.tcgplayer.com/article/ ... 6ogpX9on-4

Interesting article by Adam Yurchick about Modern.
"Modern looks like as diverse as ever"

.....but black is hardly played and green is everywhere because of Veil and Uro.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Eh, not big on that article lol.
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Amalgam
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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
https://infinite.tcgplayer.com/article/ ... 6ogpX9on-4

Interesting article by Adam Yurchick about Modern.
"Modern looks like as diverse as ever"

.....but black is hardly played and green is everywhere because of Veil and Uro.
This isn't just a modern issue though, every format in the game is suffering from simillar issues right now due to new printings. I must say I do find modern quite fun right now even with Veil and Uro around

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Ed06288
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Post by Ed06288 » 1 year ago

i actually had the chance to play against uro quite a lot in modern before covid broke out and the card didn't impress me. it seemed like the type of card that hammers fair decks like jund while losing to everything else. it just seemed so clunky.

modern actually does look pretty diverse. not that there's anywhere to play

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

Ed06288 wrote:
1 year ago
i actually had the chance to play against uro quite a lot in modern before covid broke out and the card didn't impress me. it seemed like the type of card that hammers fair decks like jund while losing to everything else. it just seemed so clunky.

modern actually does look pretty diverse. not that there's anywhere to play
It's at least far more diverse than standard and Pioneer are right now

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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Pioneer is a lot more diverse than Modern, at least. You can do well with a number of decks and even if there was a best deck(I doubt inverter is the best deck anymore), there are a series of choices for you to win with.
MIdrange(Niv mizzet, Sultai delirium is tier 1, big red /w chandras, glorybringers, etc was pure tier 1, but seems to be falling off the radar now), pure aggro(mono red aggro, mono black aggro, scales), aggro /w combo finish(Mono white), toolbox decks(niv and mono green stompy toolboxy with vivien +karn reside here), ramp(G/GU ramp), combo/control a-la twin-midrange(inverter), pure combo(breach), pure control(UW control), and probably some new decks rising with ikoria now, like sram auras!
I also think bant control(uw splashing green for uro and growth spiral) is a competitive deck. This would be something between control and midrange.
Pioneer is really more diverse than modern, because all of those decks have high chances of winning a high tournament(Tier 1, Tier 2).
All of those decks give you an incentive to play them, so you can win(except maybe big red).

In modern, what decks can win a given tournament?
Snow variant(Bant snow, temuro)
Amulet Titan
Eldrazi tron(Green tron is close to tier 1, but has literally too many bad matchups)
Prowess & Burn
Dredge

Shall I again list the new decks that appeared out of left field and won events in the past few weeks? Because they'll be as plentiful as Pioneer. Color balance was always an issue in Modern, but Pioneer is leaning very heavily Black (and Green), but I don't see you complaining about Thoughtseize, only about Astrolabe.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago

In modern, what decks can win a given tournament?
Snow variant(Bant snow, temuro)
Amulet Titan
Eldrazi tron(Green tron is close to tier 1, but has literally too many bad matchups)
Prowess & Burn
Dredge
I mean, I hope I've been clear on Uro, but isn't this fairly diverse for Modern?
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Post by BloodyRabbit » 1 year ago

I don't get people being angry at Modern *every year*. There are individuals who complain since Twin's ban. For God's sake, just stop playing it if you don't think it's fun!

Right now out there is plenty of very viable strategies:

- UW/Bant Blade
- Snow Control
- Urza Variants
- Jund
- Amulet Titan
- Mardu Blade
- Eldrazi Tron
- Green Tron
- Monored
- RG Ponza
- Valakut
- Dredge
- Death's Shadow
- GW Toolbox



All of them are good. There are some better than others? Of course. When we complain about TwinTimes, there were exactly four Tier1 strategies (Tron, Twin, Jund, Affinity).

What are you guys even talking about?

Modern is very healthy.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
On the plus side, costs are gonna plummet, and we can probably pick up some good deals?
I'm offloading some Liliana of the Veils right now, I have 9 of them. 5 normal, 4 Box toppers, I want to get rid of the normals and have some local buyers. Was shocked to see they're just $50 right now.

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Post by TheBoulderer » 1 year ago

BloodyRabbit wrote:
1 year ago

Right now out there is plenty of very viable strategies:

- UW/Bant Blade
- Snow Control
- Urza Variants
- Jund
- Amulet Titan
- Mardu Blade
- Eldrazi Tron
- Green Tron
- Monored
- RG Ponza
- Valakut
- Dredge
- Death's Shadow
- GW Toolbox



All of them are good. There are some better than others? Of course.
This must be the understatement of the month. I'll go up the list roughly.

DS is all but gone from the format. GW Toolbox took a nose dive after the OuaT ban. Hasen't come back. Valakut is the worse Titan deck by a mile compared to Amulet or even BG. Mardu Blade? Really?

Bant Blade and Bant Snow Control are very close to the same deck. they're about as far apart as Amulet Titan with or without Karn.

"Urza Variants" is overwhelmingly Temur Urza, by a huge margin.

The revised list of decks that could conceivably win a tournament:

-Bant Snow Control/Stoneblade
-UW Control/Stoneblade (though it is strictly worse than bant in almost every regard)
-Urza
-Jund
-Titan
-ETron
-GTron
-MonoRed/Boros Burn
-RG Ramp
-Dredge

The only reason Jund has any chance is that it has adopted a borderline-absurd 3 heavy island-hosers out of the sb in Boil and Choke. Jund used to run ONE Choke if things got really bad. But THREE? Talk about a healthy meta.

Jund is also the only deck that actually seriously plays black cards.

RDW, Dredge and to some degree infect are the only aggro decks worth a damn, where two of them are more combo than aggro.

Basically its BW/BG snow control with random splashes facilitated by Astrolabe and Big Mana, being challenged by a) Jund as the one pushed midrange deck, b) 3 Turn-3-decks and c) RG Ramp, the meta call beating up on non-red control and big mana.

I'm sorry but listing some isolated finishes as meta diversity beyond that is just plainly ridiculous.

Edit: every 3rd deck is on 2-4 Veil of Summer, every 4th on Astrolabe, every 4th-to-5th on Uro. Fun times.

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Post by BloodyRabbit » 1 year ago

That's pretty rubbish, and you can see that from top8 results.

Ah, I forgot to mention Storm that also pops up from time to time.

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Post by TheBoulderer » 1 year ago

BloodyRabbit wrote:
1 year ago
That's pretty rubbish, and you can see that from top8 results.

Ah, I forgot to mention Storm that also pops up from time to time.
I really really need to emphasize that random decks popping up has nothing to do with what the meta actually looks like. That is true for Storm, Mardu, and a lot of other One-ofs. People who love a certain archetype will always jam it regardless of wether its good enough to consistently compete. A friend of mine 5-0ed 2 leagues in a row with Boros Boom/Bust Land destruction with Nahiri-Emmy as a win con. But it's got nada to do with what the meta looks like. It just very specifically prays on the meta and would completely fall apart in a different environment. RG Ponza is successful for similar reasons, its just the better-rounded deck.

I have to say I really hate it when people try and dance around facts like this.

PS: if there were large paper events with groups of pro players really putting the foot down and only playing the best decks, modern would be a complete %$#% show.

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Post by ThatStoryTeller » 1 year ago

well then can we elaborate on the nature of black and why its not seeing enough play? I mean I had that discussion about Liliana of the veil being bad currently in the faeries discord since discarding cards is meaningless when the value engines spiral out of control with game advantaging 2-for-1s and you are down cards trying to trade 1-for-1. What else does black have to generate concrete competitive relevant value these days? because attrition aint it. Black used to be excellent at resource trading to accelerate its own goals, where did that go? Jund seems to be leaning on an abundance of advantage to help stay ahead of the opponent's value game and stripping key cards still, Bitterblossom is a relic for the die-hards but mystic sanctuary cryptic is keeping faeries interesting to me. And death's shadow seems to be getting value out of Lurrus, maybe thats that deck's new direction. These are all skill tester strategies mostly, so it might take more putting heads together.

So I'll pose the question, because Id love to explore that in a discussion personally- What are the examples of promising or experimental cards black uses? If the issue is that the decks slam into a wall of simic's needlessly abundant value, what are we doing to get around that

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

If I wanted to attack the top decks, what would that look like?

You would need an answer for Big Mana/Titan, Dredge, Prowess, and UGx Decks.

You still need to answer ramp, and shut down value engines, and if you can't, you better be dredge or prowess.

Veil makes a joke out of B and U interaction.
Uro is comical value (RUG Shape-shifting running it now).
Tron gonna Tron.
Dredge and Burn are forever Dredge and Burn.

What's the angle? If not for T3feri and Veil, I would be more interested in exploring it..but as is? Nah.

I do believe UWx, either UW and Esper would have the tools but Veil is %$#%$#%.
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Post by TheBoulderer » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago

Just look at today's prelim astrofestival/urofest: https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... 2020-04-17

Its getting kind of ridiculous, hearing people saying mardu blade or shadow decks are competitive.
Oh boy^^

Black is just being invalidated by a very few cards. Imo it's not really a fundamental card pool problem. Discard is in fact powerful, Liliana is a very good card, BG removal spells are incredibly versatile and powerful, every black card out of GDS (Angler, Death's Shadow, discard, Street Wraith, Dismember, Fatal Push, Drown in the Loch) is really really good.

And black does work in jund, but the thing with jund is that it's card quality is generally so incredibly good in Wrenn and BBE, that they can 1) often absorb even a resolved Veil (though running a Thoughtseize into a Veil is still a complete beating) and 2) seamlessly switch from being aggressive to accumulating a huge amount of card advantage.

Death's Shadow decks are much more streamlined. They depend on every card to pull its weight. T1 Thoughseize countered by Veil is basically game over for that deck. DS can't generate actual card advantage well, it tries to keep the number of cards in play as low as possible and counts on every card it plays to be a bomb that won't miss. Also Path is just very good vs DS because you only ever care about their 8 threats. Everything else is unimportant.

Gnerally, black is the most efficient at making 1-for-1 trades extremely, though by discarding/destroying, not exiling. And outting a single card in the bin is not a strong thing to be doing in modern anymore.

PS: I just remembered that 8Rack/12Rack used to be a deck. Not a good one, but fringe playable and occasionally powerful. As it stands, you might as well try to play a standard deck in modern^^

It may be too early to say, but if that preliminary is representative of whats to come, modern will be solved into UGx Uro decks and big mana (tron, Titan) being combatted by a) RG Ramp to attack their lands and b) turn (1)2-4 decks (Neobrand, Dredge, Burn).

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Honestly dont even know, if Maro said 'Make a card' that you could print a silver bullet to shift the path that Preliminary shows Modern is on.

Veil being removed would help a TON, I just think that card has to go, immediately.
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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

@gkourou God, you are unwilling to see past your biases and dishonest. One Challenge invalidates the last Challenge and Super Qualifier and numerous Prelims where Thoughtseize/Push are the most played cards? And this was only in the last week. Thoughtseize was a serious ban contender when Mono-B was the best deck in Pioneer by far...

Seriously, if you're going to criticize, at least keep it consistent.

You can't complain about Modern being a "astrofestival/urofest" while:

1. Thoughtseize is as popular in Pioneer, if not more so than Uro/Astrolabe are in Modern.
2. Uro is massively popular in Pioneer too.
3. Pioneer is mostly a Green/x or Black/x format.

Stop posting cherry picked tournaments to support your points.

Of the whole quoted lists in the prelim (18 in total), 4(!) are Astrolabe decks (one, 5C Niv isn't even a Snow deck) and 6 play Uro. There are 2 Simic Reclamation lists (oh look a deck that appeared out of nowhere are is placing well) and there's the usual suspects of RG Midrange, Burn, Neoform, Titan, Humans, E-Tron, Blue-%$#%-Tron, Naya Blade (also a new deck). The vast majority of the posted decks are interactive as well. The only problem I see is that they rely heavily on Green. THAT'S the problem, not Astrolabe. So, where's this so called "astrofestival"?
gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Playing something other than snow, makes you ridiculous disadvantaged. Bans must happen. Quickly.
You've told us that you sold out of paper Magic (specifically Modern) and do not play MTGO. How and why are so heavily invested in Modern (psychologically speaking), that you have to negatively twist everything?

Astrolabe has enabled a multitude of FAIR lists to exist. Veil and T3feri on the other hand push for un-interactive Magic. Why is your position "Ban Astrolabe and then ban everything else that pops up as a problem" and not "Ban Veil and maybe T3feri, that push the format towards uninteractive gameplay and, specifically, consolidates most lists in Green".
TheBoulderer wrote:
1 year ago
Black is just being invalidated by a very few cards. Imo it's not really a fundamental card pool problem. Discard is in fact powerful, Liliana is a very good card, BG removal spells are incredibly versatile and powerful, every black card out of GDS (Angler, Death's Shadow, discard, Street Wraith, Dismember, Fatal Push, Drown in the Loch) is really really good.

And black does work in jund, but the thing with jund is that it's card quality is generally so incredibly good in Wrenn and BBE, that they can 1) often absorb even a resolved Veil (though running a Thoughtseize into a Veil is still a complete beating) and 2) seamlessly switch from being aggressive to accumulating a huge amount of card advantage.

Death's Shadow decks are much more streamlined. They depend on every card to pull its weight. T1 Thoughseize countered by Veil is basically game over for that deck. DS can't generate actual card advantage well, it tries to keep the number of cards in play as low as possible and counts on every card it plays to be a bomb that won't miss. Also Path is just very good vs DS because you only ever care about their 8 threats. Everything else is unimportant.
We've said it many times:

Black (and Blue to some extend) are getting hosed by Veil and T3feri (Blue moreso). As long as those two cards exist in the format don't expect major differences in format color balance/strategies.

Astrolabe has minimal input in the color makeup of Modern. Death's Shadow decks are in worse shape because they fold to heavy white interaction AND Veil. Guess what the top control deck plays at the moment.

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