[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

gkourou wrote:
2 years ago
Top 8 of the event is super fine, even if hogaak itself is a problem. Was nice to see.
Yeah, it won't mean much from a format health perspective, but at least it makes for a fun coverage day tomorrow.
idSurge wrote:
2 years ago
ktkenshinx wrote:
2 years ago
Informed Modern consumers will know the T8 is not particularly representative of anything at the MC, which itself may not be too representative of anything, but I think we can all agree how Wizards will use the T8 this month.
Really disappointing, as people will continue to deny there being issue's fundamental to the format, all because they either dont care/understand enough to look at the game design flaws that are present, or just look to a Top 8 that is not presentative of the format, and decide to accept the words of either Wizards, or CFG/SCG types who have a conflict of interest in how they portray the format.

The GP's will be Hogaak's to eat up.
I would definitely be worried about Hogaak's influence on the GP. I'd still like to see the post-Day 2 metrics (MWP, matchup MWP, final standings by deck, etc.), but I'm not so cautiously worried it will look similar to Day 1.

Also, this is an AMAZING project Karsten just put together and released. I have a ton of analysis ideas based on this and will hopefully put some into articles in the future. This spreadsheet lists every single card played at MC4 and how many copies used between MD and SB. Data-driven content like this makes me so happy Karsten is on the Wizards team:



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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

He's a shining light in the scene that's for sure.
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Post by robertleva » 2 years ago

tronix wrote:
2 years ago
robertleva wrote:
2 years ago
Oh come on now. Are you actually trying to say that in this day and age of quick snips and "headline truth" that we SHOULDN'T engage in the way that is currently the most effective method? When society dials it down a notch you can expect the forums to follow along. Until then you need to understand that the attacker sets the rules of engagement, you need to fight on their terms or fall. It's a sad truth, but it is the truth.
that is some twisted logic. you are basically advocating being ignorant or involving oneself in activities based on ignorance because other people are ignorant.
He was criticizing my method of fast headline type of quips. I am defending it as the current norm. You can and should be mad about it being the current norm, but that isn't what he was saying.

In my opinion, any "deep study" logic studies are pointless and don't feel relevant to me because MTG is so dynamic. Why exactly should we arbitrarily discount one persons personal feelings about their own experiences in favor of some meaningless study with arbitrary non repeatable conditions? Would you just dismiss someone's opinion IRL if they didnt have a file folder to back up their words?

This is a forum about speculation and conjecture in the MTG world with a very limited audience, I would hope a place like this would encourage any and all voices on the subject matter. Am I wrong?
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Post by Wraithpk » 2 years ago

We'll have to see the overall MWPs, but the most damning point against Hogaak is that this tournament was the anti-graveyard tournament, and it still made top 8 and had really good Day 2 conversions and Day 1 MWPs. I've never seen a tournament this skewed towards hating out the graveyard, and the Hogaak deck barely cared.

I'm always one for saying we should see how the meta shifts to address a strong new deck, but how does Modern shift to beat Hogaak? Leyline of the Void was the most played card in this tournament. Almost everyone had maindeck graveyard hate. It doesn't look to me that Modern has a reasonable place to shift to to address this deck, the format is already super hostile towards it, and it's winning anyway. That's a hallmark of a deck that needs a ban, in my opinion.
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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

robertleva wrote:
2 years ago
He was criticizing my method of fast headline type of quips. I am defending it as the current norm. You can and should be mad about it being the current norm, but that isn't what he was saying.

In my opinion, any "deep study" logic studies are pointless and don't feel relevant to me because MTG is so dynamic. Why exactly should we arbitrarily discount one persons personal feelings about their own experiences in favor of some meaningless study with arbitrary non repeatable conditions? Would you just dismiss someone's opinion IRL if they didnt have a file folder to back up their words?

This is a forum about speculation and conjecture in the MTG world with a very limited audience, I would hope a place like this would encourage any and all voices on the subject matter. Am I wrong?
You're not wrong about it being the current norm. That's a sad turn on its own, but it is what it is. I will only say two things on this for now. First, just because it's a widely accepted norm, doesn't mean we all have to follow it. Norms can be wrong and unhelpful; we should challenge ones that hurt the society in which the norm is present. Second, I have no issue with speculation, conjecture, and opinion in any Magic setting, here or otherwise. There are some spectacular op-ed pieces with very little evidence to back up their theories, and I'm sure we can all remember amazing arguments in essays, journal articles, books, speeches, etc. where there were only a few statistics/numbers (if any) to back up the core idea. Personal feelings can be powerful drivers of those arguments too. But there's a big difference between that kind of engaging, constructive sharing of opinions and "Im glad some of yall are eating your words" and related opinions. There's a lot of ground in between the kind of pithy one-liners we see on Twitter or Reddit/personal karma hunting and good faith efforts to engage people on an opinion playing field.

It's one thing to do a funny %$#% post for comedy about "Mission accomplished" with a Hogaak ban. I can appreciate some %$#% posting humor as much as the next internet user. But if the conversation stops there or if that just gets repeated as a sufficient argument to take action, then we're in trouble.

Re: Hogaak
Highest MWP at the MC with 56.5%. Nothing too surprising at this point. Karsten Tweeted that he would post the full results tomorrow, which we will all eagerly await.



The last two datapoints we need are the matchup MWP spectrum, which will probably just reinforce the Day 1 picture at this point, and the Modern-only standings by deck, which is almost certainly correlated heavily with MWP.

EDIT: Hey look, more super broken Hogaak stats! Here are the Modern only 7-3 or better standings per a Reddit user:



Hogaak represented 24 of the top 72 decks. It ain't Eldrazi but it also ain't pretty. That represents more overperformance from Day 2 into the 7-3+ bracket (Day 1 at 21%. Day 2 at 24%. 7-3+ at 33%). Now we're just missing the matchup and final MWPs of all decks and we can complete the picture.

If the T8 was Modern standings only, we would have Izzet Phoenix. 1 Hogaak, 1 Jund, and 5 slots open between 8 Hogaaks, 2 Hogaak Dredge, 2 Grixis Urza's, 2 UW Control, 1 Humans, 1 Jund, and 1 Tron.
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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

Lol and I've already seen justification that 'limited didn't change things.'
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 2 years ago

Also, FYI we had a win-a-box of modern horizons tourney at my LGS today. I won it undefeated with hogaak, but to be fair I would say the decks I played against were not exactly optimized.

Anyone on this forum that knows me should know I don't push for bans.... like ever. But this thing is really strong still and I EXPECT another ban at some point. Which card would be banned was the talk of my shop all day. Everyone generally agreed hogaak is the problem card, but no one wanted to ban it except me. Everyone else was onboard with a faithless looting ban and a smaller group wanted to ban stitcher's supplier. THAT WAS THE MOMENT I REALIZED THIS IS OUT OF CONTROL. They should NOT ban stitcher's supplier, I think that is crazy talk. There are lots of good points against FL that are hard to completely refute, but I really believe the problem is hogaak himself, not bridge, not as much FL, NOT STITCHER'S SUPPLIER, it's HOGAAK! The more smaller bans that are made, like bridge, do not solve this problem and are what make the modern ban list look so ridiculous.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

Well they don't have to ban Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis. I originally thought that they should ban Hogaak because Bridge from Below hardly did anything before Modern Horizons. The card literally was not bannable, let that sink in, before Modern Horizons. Now I'm not arguing that new cards should cause old cards that were fine before to NOT get banned. New cards should indeed weed out old cards that were fine in the format.

But like I said in the last page, Hogaak should NOT be banned (I agree with Wizards). Instead they should ban Vengevine, Bloodghast, and Gravecrawler. That will slow it down; after all, those are the problems, not Hogaak. Hogaak is a terrible card.

Meanwhile at our 1K, I failed with Hogaak, dropping at 1-3. My average hand size was 4-5 cards per game and I barely lost 2 of the rounds, 1 of the rounds due to turn 1 Grafdigger's Cage in game 1 on the play from my opponent on Grixis Urza with 1 copy in his 75. Sure, the had Whir of Invention, but I could have exploited that on turns 2 and 3 that game. Lost that round after mulling to 5 and not seeing Hogaak in my top 36 cards. That was the round where my opponent's draws were actually not super good... The other 2 Hogaak players are 4-0 and 3-1 now. It's sad to me that I'm not up there, but considering I shuffled Hogaaks to the bottom too often and didn't feel like mulling to 4 at least 4 times, I don't deserve to have those records.
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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

robertleva wrote:
2 years ago
I would hope a place like this would encourage any and all voices on the subject matter. Am I wrong?
Yeah, just for the record, your position is wrong. The vapid, lowest common denominator, click bait 'culture' that is the current norm is garbage. Will I dismiss opinion's that are not backed up by anything more than 'in my personal experience'? In a game as wide and variable as MTG?

100% just as should be done with my anecdotal opinions.
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Post by Albegas » 2 years ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
Well they don't have to ban Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis. I originally thought that they should ban Hogaak because Bridge from Below hardly did anything before Modern Horizons. The card literally was not bannable, let that sink in, before Modern Horizons. Now I'm not arguing that new cards should cause old cards that were fine before to NOT get banned. New cards should indeed weed out old cards that were fine in the format.

But like I said in the last page, Hogaak should NOT be banned (I agree with Wizards). Instead they should ban Vengevine, Bloodghast, and Gravecrawler. That will slow it down; after all, those are the problems, not Hogaak. Hogaak is a terrible card.
Anytime the choice is between 1 card and 3 cards to hit one deck, you almost always know that the latter is an incorrect choice. Bans should be made to reduce the power of a deck, not to keep particular cards in a format, and hitting three cards to reduce a deck's power when one would work indicates to me a case of the latter.

I also have to disagree with the assessment that Hogaak is a bad card. Bridgevine was barely a blip before Modern Horizons. Now, in spite of losing Bridge, the deck is not only tier 1, but it's likely the best tier 1 deck in the meta. When 1 card brings a deck from obscurity to the forefront, it's hard to argue that the card is bad. Yeah, it requires some set-up and can't be jammed into any deck, but clearly the decks built around it are being rewarded

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 2 years ago

I agree with albegas. They already banned bridge, then they should ban three more cards from the deck just to be able to keep one particular card legal is an idea like I have never heard before and I do not support that idea. IMO ideas like that prove how powerful hogaak is and further solidify my belief hogaak is the correct ban.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

gkourou wrote:
2 years ago
Some interesting responses from Aaron Forsythe on twitter. Interesting and necessary conclusions must be drawn.
Link:
Thanks for sharing. Unless I am missing Tweets and context, my read is a clear "wait and see until August 26" signal. That isn't particularly surprising, but I am glad to see the higher ups maintain calm in the face of community outrage.
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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

Almost certainly nothing will happen ahead of schedule. Would take pure domination of the upcoming GPS.

EDIT: I will also say, Forsythe as usual demonstrates a complete lack of understanding as to what people want out of Modern.
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Post by robertleva » 2 years ago

[mention]ktkenshinx[/mention] I know what you are saying and I think we agree in principle, we just disagree in the necessity of "sinking to their level". In this day and age, no one is reading past the first line or two so you better make it a slam dunk.
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

metalmusic_4 wrote:
2 years ago
I agree with albegas. They already banned bridge, then they should ban three more cards from the deck just to be able to keep one particular card legal is an idea like I have never heard before and I do not support that idea. IMO ideas like that prove how powerful hogaak is and further solidify my belief hogaak is the correct ban.
Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis IS not the correct ban. It WAS the correct ban. There's no point in doing the correct one now after a useless card was banned. They should just go down the ban line, similar to how Mishra's Workshop has caused 7 cards to be banned in Vintage or how Brainstorm in Legacy is probably better than EVERY single CARD on the Legacy ban list.

Those are wonderful formats that WotC looks after. Why would they do different in Modern?
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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

Here's kind of the thing FCG. Bridge is not a card worth having. Its never going to do anything but what it contributed to do. Force an abundance of one sided hate, that is neither 'deep' 'insightful' or 'interesting deck building' to counter it.

So yeah, Bridge was a fine ban. Would looting be better? Maybe Hogaak itself, but that only kills one deck and then what? We move to the next one.

Like that absolute insult of a tweet from Forsythe, paraphrasing 'Imagine playing cards to counter other decks you expect to see.'

What an absolute TOOL. We have all been running 6+ hate for months on end, and this is 'insight'? This is 'interesting deck building'? This is good Magic? Its actually an insult to the countless hours, literally 1000's of hours, that people put into this game from Design, to Dev, to Content to PLAYING.

I simply struggle, when have Ban Announcements that discuss things like "Deck Diversity" and "Battle of the Sideboards" and "Dominance" yet here we are knowing that Hogaak will eat another ban, and I question how a set 'designed for Modern' brings us to this point.

Where is the testing? I understand Standard wont be tested against Modern, but this set was designed by people who presumably know Modern, like Tom Ross. Yet here.we.are.

I'm probably going to write a very long, very tiresome, post on this format, which people will skip after the first line because we have all become gnats unable to think deeply and communicate with honesty, but its very simple.

What we think are the rules, are not the rules, or those in charge, do not actually understand the format, and the people who actually WISH to play it, instead of those who feel FORCED to play it.
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Post by Albegas » 2 years ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
metalmusic_4 wrote:
2 years ago
I agree with albegas. They already banned bridge, then they should ban three more cards from the deck just to be able to keep one particular card legal is an idea like I have never heard before and I do not support that idea. IMO ideas like that prove how powerful hogaak is and further solidify my belief hogaak is the correct ban.
Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis IS not the correct ban. It WAS the correct ban. There's no point in doing the correct one now after a useless card was banned. They should just go down the ban line, similar to how Mishra's Workshop has caused 7 cards to be banned in Vintage or how Brainstorm in Legacy is probably better than EVERY single CARD on the Legacy ban list.

Those are wonderful formats that WotC looks after. Why would they do different in Modern?
As far as I can tell, there is little incentive to uproot those metas in the name of balance. Vintage for all intents and purposes only exists as an online format, and Legacy is slowly working its way towards that same status. Even if there are flaws in those metas, neither of those metas are showcased in as major tournaments asModern, so there's no reason to turn those metas on their heads just to create more ideal meta games.

Furthermore, Hogaak isn't the meta definer that Brainstorm or Mishra's Workshop are. It's one deck that's only been relevant for two months. Hogaak is not a universal utility card like Brainstorm nor is it a sacred format pillar like Workshop decks. There's no reason to ban multiple cards just to keep Hogaak relevant. If the deck needs a ban, just hit Hogaak. I can almost guarantee that the backlash from hitting multiple cards to keep one experiment in the format would create way more outrage than just deciding that Hogaak was a failed experiment and banning it.

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Post by The Fluff » 2 years ago

I can almost guarantee that the backlash from hitting multiple cards to keep one experiment in the format would create way more outrage than just deciding that Hogaak was a failed experiment and banning it.
agreed on that.

And I feel that one reason they don't want to hammer Hogaak out of the format is because it's from a recent product, could still possibly hurt sales. Imagine Hogaak is banned, then someone opens a booster pack that rare inside is Hogaak.. feels bad.
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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

The Fluff wrote:
2 years ago
I can almost guarantee that the backlash from hitting multiple cards to keep one experiment in the format would create way more outrage than just deciding that Hogaak was a failed experiment and banning it.
agreed on that.

And I feel that one reason they don't want to hammer Hogaak out of the format is because it's from a recent product, could still possibly hurt sales. Imagine Hogaak is banned, then someone opens a booster pack that rare inside is Hogaak.. feels bad.
Imagine reprinting a namesake card plus numerous other pieces (some fairly expensive) from that same deck and then banning the namesake card and destroying that deck a few months later. Feels bad. I could see why they might not want to do that again.

But Hogaak is a worse threat and far more warping than pretty much anything else. 800 Leylines is pretty nuts, especially when people are putting them in the main. I can't wait to see it dumpster all over the next few GPs as well, while Phoenix quietly continues its own massive numbers that everyone conveniently chooses to ignore.

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Post by The Fluff » 2 years ago

But Hogaak is a worse threat and far more warping than pretty much anything else. 800 Leylines is pretty nuts, especially when people are putting them in the main. I can't wait to see it dumpster all over the next few GPs as well, while Phoenix quietly continues its own massive numbers that everyone conveniently chooses to ignore.
Hogaak is getting all the air right now, but after the big bad tree is cut down with a ban, people would have their attention on the next best deck, Phoenix. Then after phoenix has been dealt with, people will realize the true final boss is Faithless Looting laughing from his throne, because WoTc turns a blind eye to his evil deeds. Just kidding on the looting part ok. :)
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 2 years ago

If Faithless Loothing gets banned the next big thing is (Eldrazi)Tron but Chalice will get a lot worse because the format will be less degenerate. Decks will actually have manacurves again. This is where I think Wrenn will be problematic and by far the best card in the format.

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 2 years ago

gkourou wrote:
2 years ago
Looting can not be banned, because it is only the 5th best card in Hogaak, as kanister said(i will link his tweet later). If looting gets banned, the hogaak deck will still be a menace, and will still be in need of a banning. So you need to ban hogaak and looting, for no real reason.
It is like banning chromatic sphere out of kci, only worse because looting destroys phoenix (which is a deck that goes zero top 8 multiple times latelh, so nothing wrong there), mardu mancer, which is perfectly fine, traditional dredge and hollow one. All seem fine. You then lessen the diversity of the format and risk having a vicious cycle of bannings, like stirrings, because it will absolutely be the next one.
Dredge and Phoenix are not fine, they are by far the best deck for over 6 months now to a point people started maindecking Surgicals and Leylines before Hogaak was printed but people seem to have forgotten. Their winrate has tanked due to Hogaak entering the format. Hogaak does almost the same thing as dredge but is simply better at it so people jumped on the maindeck Surgical and Leyline hypetrain and Phoenix is just collateral damage. Even with so many people maindecking 4-6 hatecards the decks still have 50-56% winrates. The trend to spot is easy. Whichever deck is the best at abusing Faithless Loothing is the best deck in Modern and that has been the case now for almost a year.

I don't agree that you lessen format diversity if you ban FL and Stirrings. Tuning down the powercreep also opens the metagame for tons of new decks to emerge, decks that right now simply don't stand a chance. The real problem is that Modern Horizons was their chance to accomplish this goal without having to ban anything but they failed miserably because they focused too much on appealing the Commander player to sell more packs. Its painfully clear MH was poorly tested for Modern. It only made the existing problematic degenerate decks stronger like dregde and Phoenix instead of giving us answers to those problems. So now we are left with no other choice than to ban stuff because waiting another 6 months for something to get printed which may or not may not be the answer we need is simply not acceptable.

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Post by robertleva » 2 years ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
2 years ago
gkourou wrote:
2 years ago
Looting can not be banned, because it is only the 5th best card in Hogaak, as kanister said(i will link his tweet later). If looting gets banned, the hogaak deck will still be a menace, and will still be in need of a banning. So you need to ban hogaak and looting, for no real reason.
It is like banning chromatic sphere out of kci, only worse because looting destroys phoenix (which is a deck that goes zero top 8 multiple times latelh, so nothing wrong there), mardu mancer, which is perfectly fine, traditional dredge and hollow one. All seem fine. You then lessen the diversity of the format and risk having a vicious cycle of bannings, like stirrings, because it will absolutely be the next one.
Dredge and Phoenix are not fine, they are by far the best deck for over 6 months now to a point people started maindecking Surgicals and Leylines before Hogaak was printed but people seem to have forgotten. Their winrate has tanked due to Hogaak entering the format. Hogaak does almost the same thing as dredge but is simply better at it so people jumped on the maindeck Surgical and Leyline hypetrain and Phoenix is just collateral damage. Even with so many people maindecking 4-6 hatecards the decks still have 50-56% winrates. The trend to spot is easy. Whichever deck is the best at abusing Faithless Loothing is the best deck in Modern and that has been the case now for almost a year.

I don't agree that you lessen format diversity if you ban FL and Stirrings. Tuning down the powercreep also opens the metagame for tons of new decks to emerge, decks that right now simply don't stand a chance. The real problem is that Modern Horizons was their chance to accomplish this goal without having to ban anything but they failed miserably because they focused too much on appealing the Commander player to sell more packs. Its painfully clear MH was poorly tested for Modern. It only made the existing problematic degenerate decks stronger like dregde and Phoenix instead of giving us answers to those problems. So now we are left with no other choice than to ban stuff because waiting another 6 months for something to get printed which may or not may not be the answer we need is simply not acceptable.
This post absolutely nails the problem. I am really shocked at how many smart people who I personally look to for MTG knowledge can be so frigging blind about the Looting problem. I asked the looting crazies this question before rhetorically, but I am asking honestly now: WHAT is it going to take before you realize Looting is too strong for this format?
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 2 years ago

cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
The Fluff wrote:
2 years ago
I can almost guarantee that the backlash from hitting multiple cards to keep one experiment in the format would create way more outrage than just deciding that Hogaak was a failed experiment and banning it.
agreed on that.

And I feel that one reason they don't want to hammer Hogaak out of the format is because it's from a recent product, could still possibly hurt sales. Imagine Hogaak is banned, then someone opens a booster pack that rare inside is Hogaak.. feels bad.
Imagine reprinting a namesake card plus numerous other pieces (some fairly expensive) from that same deck and then banning the namesake card and destroying that deck a few months later. Feels bad. I could see why they might not want to do that again.

But Hogaak is a worse threat and far more warping than pretty much anything else. 800 Leylines is pretty nuts, especially when people are putting them in the main. I can't wait to see it dumpster all over the next few GPs as well, while Phoenix quietly continues its own massive numbers that everyone conveniently chooses to ignore.
I'm a hogaak player right now, it would feel bad to have my deck banned out of existance. Bridgevine was a deck before hogaak and I liked it. I would rather ban one card, hogaak, than ban 2-3 other cards and still have a deck that effectively made useless by bans. Just ban the one card, it makes since.

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Post by True-Name Nemesis » 2 years ago

People who've been straight up wrong about Modern's ability to adapt to this level of graveyard degeneracy really need to get off their ridiculous high anti-ban rhetoric horse and stop acting like they know %$#%.
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