[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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tronix
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Post by tronix » 2 years ago

robertleva wrote:
2 years ago
Oh come on now. Are you actually trying to say that in this day and age of quick snips and "headline truth" that we SHOULDN'T engage in the way that is currently the most effective method? When society dials it down a notch you can expect the forums to follow along. Until then you need to understand that the attacker sets the rules of engagement, you need to fight on their terms or fall. It's a sad truth, but it is the truth.
that is some twisted logic. you are basically advocating being ignorant or involving oneself in activities based on ignorance because other people are ignorant.

the social and cultural phenomenon resultant from more and better methods to gather, disseminate, and communicate information is a rather broad and complex (off) topic. suffice it to say that i dont think its worth demonizing/scorning, but neither does it warrant lowering ones own standards of applying rationality and logic to further our understanding once achieved. thats the thing. information in itself is far removed from understanding/comprehending. the snips of bite size information in various forms we see becoming more prominent are what they are - a tool, and a useful one at that. using and engaging such things and others who use them isnt mutually exclusive with knowing their benefits and downsides. if others, even the vast majority, don't know and thus make choices or form opinions out of ignorance you can 'engage' with them by showing a different way with reason in attempt to change their mind. otherwise separate yourself as much as feasible given the context of the situation.

note when i talk about ignorance i mean a lack of knowledge, which is different than being dumb or stupid where someone is unwilling or unable to use said knowledge.
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Post by Albegas » 2 years ago

cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
Is there a posting that includes round by round standings, so Draft and Modern can be separated? Their website is all over the place and I can't find it for the life of me.
Here's the link for the coverage: https://www.mtgesports.com/events
If you scroll down past the bingo table, you can view each round's pairings, the results of each round, and the standings after each round. Going by the event description, rounds 1-3 were the draft rounds, so the Modern portion started on Round 4. Not sure how to segregate the Draft results from the Modern results though. If it's just subtracting the round 3 score from the round 8 score, I could probably put something up, albeit slowly.

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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

Albegas wrote:
2 years ago
cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
Is there a posting that includes round by round standings, so Draft and Modern can be separated? Their website is all over the place and I can't find it for the life of me.
Here's the link for the coverage: https://www.mtgesports.com/events
If you scroll down past the bingo table, you can view each round's pairings, the results of each round, and the standings after each round. Going by the event description, rounds 1-3 were the draft rounds, so the Modern portion started on Round 4. Not sure how to segregate the Draft results from the Modern results though. If it's just subtracting the round 3 score from the round 8 score, I could probably put something up, albeit slowly.
Wonderful! Thank you! Put this together with that info. And summary below:

Modern 5-0
1 Hogaak
1 Hardened Scales
1 Humans
1 UW Control

Modern 4-1
5 Hogaak
3 G Tron
3 Jund
2 Izzet Phoenix
2 Humans
2 UrzaSword
1 Esper Control

Modern 3-2
3 Hogaak
2 Izzet Phoenix
2 Jund
1 Mardu Shadow
1 UrzaSword
1 Grishoalbrand

Hogaak still seems really, really good, leading all three categories, as well as being by far the most overall.

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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

So your saying my 8/8 Hogaak top 8 dream has a chance?
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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

Meaningful stats are coming in!

Overall MWP for all decks:
Hogaak at the top at 53% for all big N decks. Only Phoenix had a positive Day 1 MWP of all big N decks.

Matchups:

Hard to tell the Ns on some of these, but Hogaaks only bad Day 1 matchup was Humans.

Based on all that data, I think it's safe to say Hogaak was super dominant on Day 1 by most available metrics. Let's see how things change, or don't change, going into Day 2!
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Post by Wraithpk » 2 years ago

It's surprising to me that more people don't play Hardened Scales. Every time you guys compile these stats it's always near the top in win percentage, but it sees so little play.

As for Hogaak, I've got a feeling the deck is going to catch another ban. It's pretty telling that all the pro teams are saying they identified almost immediately that it was still the best deck in the format by a wide margin. Hopefully they stop playing around and just ban Hogaak himself. Free 8/8s that you can cast from your graveyard shouldn't be a thing.
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ubr Grixis Shadow ubr
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Post by LeoTzu » 2 years ago

Every game of Hardened Scales is like doing Linear Algebra homework.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

LeoTzu wrote:
2 years ago
Every game of Hardened Scales is like doing Linear Algebra homework.
Lol, isn't that right?

They probably don't run Hardened Scales because it has no new toys. Also Collector Ouphe can be a beating. It's probably a good choice, as grave hate has surpassed artifact hate to the point where most decks run very little, if any, artifact hate.

My friend didn't enjoy playing Grixis Urza today, despite going 3-1, so he's running Hardened Scales tomorrow at a 1K in Riverside, CA. I'll let you know how that goes. I'm gonna be probably running the Gaak. I don't see much of a reason to run anything else, other than for fun. :) :( (I don't know if I should be happy or sad...)

*Kinda hope that WotC bans Bloodghast, Vengevine, and Gravecrawler because those are the problems, not Hogaak. :thinking:
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Post by The Fluff » 2 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
2 years ago
Meaningful stats are coming in!
nice stats. I'm surprised someone actually brought that 4 color snow deck.
And it actually managed to win a few games.

Hogaak and Phoenix both still very strong.
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Post by BloodyRabbit » 2 years ago

BUG Snow has always felt strong to me, honestly (Coatl and the Snow Toxic Deluge are real cards).

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

More meaningful stats coming in!
https://www.mtgesports.com/news/mythic- ... -breakdown

Disclaimer from article that I couldn't have said too much better:
"I do have to warn that conversion rate is a muddy statistic. The competition also features draft, and an 8-0 player is counted in the same way as a 4-4 player. The win rates of archetypes in the Modern rounds is more informative, and I will have these numbers for you after all Swiss rounds conclude. But the early indication is that Hogaak overperformed so far."

Hogaak with the highest conversion rate of 71.4%, outperforming its Day 1 share by about 3 percentage points. Basically every other deck met or came in under expected Day 2 share. Another data nail in the Hogaak coffin.

Next up will be final MWP of all decks, final matchup MWP spectrums, and final Modern-only standings. T8 is both not too meaningful, in that it includes Draft performance, and very meaningful, in that it is a highly visible group Wizards frequently cites.
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Post by The Fluff » 2 years ago

good to see the few Mardu Pyromancer players on day 1, all seem to have reached day 2.
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Post by Simto » 2 years ago

The Fluff wrote:
2 years ago
good to see the few Mardu Pyromancer players on day 1, all seem to have reached day 2.
Yeah, that's pretty awesome seeing decks like that make it through.

There's also a Spanish player, who's probably going to get in the top 8, playing Hardened Scales.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

In case you missed it, here's the 11-3 or better leaderboard at the beginning of Round 15:

Lenz: Grixis Urza's
Gifford: E Tron
Fernandez Torres: Hardened Scales
Severin: G Tron
Moscato: Humans
Mines: Jund
Wiegersma: Hogaak
Kvartek: Humans
Wafo-Tapa: Esper Control
Rodrigues Lopez: Mono R Phoenix
Muller: Hogaak
Wilson: Mardu Shadow
Sele: Mono R Phoenix

Coverage says 10-4 is virtually dead for T8. As usual, disclaimers about Limited portion apply.
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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

Only 2 Hogaak? Watch it somehow miss Top 8 (thanks to draft records) so people can continue the narrative that competitive Modern is healthy.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
Only 2 Hogaak? Watch it somehow miss Top 8 (thanks to draft records) so people can continue the narrative that competitive Modern is healthy.
We'll see what the Modern-only standings, MWPs, and matchup MWPs reveal. The most significant thing about only 1-2 Hogaaks in the T8 would be dramatically increasing the already high chances that Wizards does nothing until the late August scheduled B&R update. I think it would be a bit of a stretch for even the most fanatical Modern optimists to look at the T8 alone, ignore everything else at this event (assuming Day 2 and beyond repeats the Day 1 performance), and claim Modern is totally healthy. It will be much more interesting if Hogaak completely crashed and burned in Round 12+, but I don't expect that to happen.
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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

Well this was interesting to see...

"Not playing at least that first copy of Leyline of the Void main at the MC was a mistake"


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Post by Hesperos » 2 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
2 years ago
I think it would be a bit of a stretch for even the most fanatical Modern optimists to look at the T8 alone, ignore everything else at this event (assuming Day 2 and beyond repeats the Day 1 performance), and claim Modern is totally healthy. It will be much more interesting if Hogaak completely crashed and burned in Round 12+, but I don't expect that to happen.
Agreed. I think at this point it's pretty clear Hogaak is an extremely powerful deck. I feel very unsure about what the right course of action is at this point though. Whatever happens at this point, I expect there will be a large group of modern players that will be unhappy. The three most likely/hoped for results, as I see them: no changes, looting banned, Hogaak banned. All three have pros and cons, and none would be supported by all players.

If Hogaak continues to stomp the meta today, I almost want WotC to issue a temporary ban: let Hogaak sit on the corner for a while to prevent the upcoming tournaments be overrun by Hogaak, and figure out a way to gather more data. This is not something they've ever done, and seems very hard to implement well, I will admit. Still, I'd like WotC to react a bit more quickly, and provide more insight into their processes and decisions.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

Looks like Lenz, Gifford, Torres, Severin, Muller, and Mines are locked for T8 with last round IDs. That leaves two slots unknown. The winner of Wiegersma and Lopez will be guaranteed in, but the Zhang/Moscato match is super interesting. If Zhang (11-3-1) wins, he's just in and that's the T8. If Moscato (11-4) wins, then ALL of the 11-4s suddenly become live for T8 (including Zhang who would have lost lol) and the player with the best breakers is in. Exciting last round for a lot of players!

Here's that potential T8:

Lenz: Grixis Urza's
Gifford: E Tron
Fernandez Torres: Hardened Scales
Severin: G Tron
Mines: Jund
Rodrigues Lopez: Mono R Phoenix OR Wiegersma: Hogaak
Zhang: Jund OR 11-4 player with best breakers

HERE WE GO!!
cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
Well this was interesting to see...

"Not playing at least that first copy of Leyline of the Void main at the MC was a mistake"

That seems right, given that pros seemed to have known just how many Hogaak and GY decks would be around.
Hesperos wrote:
2 years ago
Agreed. I think at this point it's pretty clear Hogaak is an extremely powerful deck. I feel very unsure about what the right course of action is at this point though. Whatever happens at this point, I expect there will be a large group of modern players that will be unhappy. The three most likely/hoped for results, as I see them: no changes, looting banned, Hogaak banned. All three have pros and cons, and none would be supported by all players.

If Hogaak continues to stomp the meta today, I almost want WotC to issue a temporary ban: let Hogaak sit on the corner for a while to prevent the upcoming tournaments be overrun by Hogaak, and figure out a way to gather more data. This is not something they've ever done, and seems very hard to implement well, I will admit. Still, I'd like WotC to react a bit more quickly, and provide more insight into their processes and decisions.
There is no way they ban Looting and not Hogaak in even the worst case scenario. If anything gets banned (not sure if that will happen, but it's looking bad for Hogaak), then it will be Hogaak. Wizards might also ban FL if there is a lot of data we don't have access to, but I doubt it given their stance towards GY decks in the previous ban update. Wizards has been pretty consistent about accepting Looting and Stirrings decks in Modern, even if vocal subsets of the community are not. No changes would also be unlikely if (big if, but honestly, maybe not that big) Hogaak failed to perform at the GP later this month.

I do see Wizards waiting until late August to take action, but it's simply implausible, almost impossible, that they invent a new category of banning just to address Hogaak. This would also completely neuter their ability to gather meaningful GP data to support a ban decision, a weakness of this strategy you do acknowledge. With the B&R update less than 30 days away, the likeliest scenario is them waiting until late August and all the GP data before making a decision. MC/PT data is notoriously unreliable and non-predictive of the wider metagame, and I believe Wizards understands this. Waiting for GP data is a conservative, data-driven approach.
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Post by Hesperos » 2 years ago

I'm all in favour of being very cautious with bans, and making sure they have the data to support any action they take, but I also feel WotC has to either share more information, or act more quickly in this day and age, as that is just more and more an expectation from players based on their experience with digital products everywhere.

Also, based on what we just saw on stream, it really has to be Hogaak, when/if they ban something. I realize Jelger had the nuts, but in that match Hogaak looked like it was just in another league of power altogether.

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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

I absolutely despise that Limited ruins the data. Hogaak is going to get away with warping the format (over perform with the most played card Leyline) and if it's not in Top 8 you all just know a select few ignorant people will parrot that Modern is very diverse and healthy.

Meanwhile in reality I am seeing push back against W6 now on Twitter, it's gathering steam as a sleeper due to Hogaak.

I feel like I should write an article about Modern but I have no voice. :p
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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

Hesperos wrote:
2 years ago
I'm all in favour of being very cautious with bans, and making sure they have the data to support any action they take, but I also feel WotC has to either share more information, or act more quickly in this day and age, as that is just more and more an expectation from players based on their experience with digital products everywhere.

Also, based on what we just saw on stream, it really has to be Hogaak, when/if they ban something. I realize Jelger had the nuts, but in that match Hogaak looked like it was just in another league of power altogether.
Yeah, Hogaak looked really ugly in that matchup. I hate to parrot the memey one-liners, but it turns out 0 mana 8/8 tramplers are indeed pretty powerful. I agree Wizards needs to be a little more transparent in their decision-making progress. It is outrageous, as others and I have noted before, that Wizards deliberately throttles data to their biggest Modern platform in a day and age where most business are moving in the opposite direction. Consumers expect information and Wizards withholds a chunk of it. They've gotten a lot better with paper tournaments, now officially providing win rates and breakdowns when they used to ask content creators to take those independent analyses down. But the MTGO gap is bad.

The only solution I'd propose is Wizards stating something about Modern (and other formats) in every banlist update. Kind of like the Federal Reserve meetings done quarterly. This would give some regular signals to format consumers about the state of each format. The big danger about this is market instability, which can concretely affect a lot of players, but there's probably a way to limit that risk with careful wording.
idSurge wrote:
2 years ago
I absolutely despise that Limited ruins the data. Hogaak is going to get away with warping the format (over perform with the most played card Leyline) and if it's not in Top 8 you all just know a select few ignorant people will parrot that Modern is very diverse and healthy.

Meanwhile in reality I am seeing push back against W6 now on Twitter, it's gathering steam as a sleeper due to Hogaak.

I feel like I should write an article about Modern but I have no voice. :p
Nonsense like the W6 pushback is a prime example of the long-term cost of ban mania and hyperbole. Everything becomes a question of bans and players become habituated to responding to breakout cards/strategies with banlist talk. This has been happening for years but I believe/fear it will really ramp up after this summer. We should expect every new upcoming strategy and staple will face this kind of skepticism and axe-grinding going forward. I hope everyone here can be the voice of reason in these debates, not falling into the disturbing pattern RL described in a previous page about racing to the bottom against an increasingly uncritical social media community.
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Post by Hesperos » 2 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
2 years ago
The big danger about this is market instability, which can concretely affect a lot of players, but there's probably a way to limit that risk with careful wording.
This is aso very true, but I think they can't really win here. If they don't take action, people will feel Hogaak is 'safe', bumping prices and more will people likely buy in (since it's just silly powerful). When the deck eventually does eat a ban, more people will feel bad.
Being more transparent and sharing more data will likely also affect the market adversely, but may also smooth out some spikes a bit more (maybe I'm just too optimistic here).

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

Unless I missed something, in which case please correct me, here's the T8:

Lenz: Grixis Urza's
Gifford: E-Tron
F-Torres: Hardened Scales
Severin: G-Tron
Muller: Hogaak
Mines: Jund
Zhang: Jund
J-Rodriguez: Mono R Phoenix (SUPER EXCITING last game, even if it came down to some topdecks)

I am confident this will result in Wizards waiting until late August for any banlist changes. They can hide behind the T8 optics regardless of how the other stats pan out, waiting for the GP to crystallize their picture. Informed Modern consumers will know the T8 is not particularly representative of anything at the MC, which itself may not be too representative of anything, but I think we can all agree how Wizards will use the T8 this month.
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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
2 years ago
Informed Modern consumers will know the T8 is not particularly representative of anything at the MC, which itself may not be too representative of anything, but I think we can all agree how Wizards will use the T8 this month.
Really disappointing, as people will continue to deny there being issue's fundamental to the format, all because they either dont care/understand enough to look at the game design flaws that are present, or just look to a Top 8 that is not presentative of the format, and decide to accept the words of either Wizards, or CFG/SCG types who have a conflict of interest in how they portray the format.

The GP's will be Hogaak's to eat up.
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