[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

Aazadan
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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
That's why the best Magic players on earth across the game's history typically don't push beyond a 65% win-rate across multiple events.
Keep in mind that for many of those people like Finkel, PVDDR, Nassif, and so on, their 65% win rates (or Finkels which is I think 73% or something absurd) was against their fellow best Magic players on Earth, mainly PT players where this was tracked. Magic is not purely a game of skill, but if one person does significantly out skill their competition their win rate will be a lot higher and that can easily skew results.

This is easy to track too. The average win rate in a PT is lower than a GP day 2 which is lower than a GP day 1 for stronger players. Most online testing that better players do is against the average skill level of whatever platform they test on. But then others will pick up a deck those players popularized and have lesser results. Not because the deck isn't strong, but because the skill gap isn't there.
If people adjusted their win-rate expectations in Magic as a whole, let alone Modern and our conversation about Modern top decks specifically, players would enjoy the game a lot more. They would definitely enjoy their options within different formats more too.
Case in point. Jund is fringe competitive right now. Reid Duke is knocking out 4-1's and 5-0's with it like it's trivial, which to be fair it probably is for him. The guy could probably find a way to win a game playing just 60 basic forests in his deck.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
If your goal is to be on the best deck, you will ALWAYS be limited to around 3 options, and its not particularly relevant to most of us, because the meta is irrelevant unless you need to.
I just want a good play experience, which means minimizing games that are overwhelmingly one-sided. Right now that means playing Bant Snow. Most of my games go past turn 7 or 8, with several reaching well into double digits, and none of them feel like an extreme blowout one way or the other. With UR, every match feels like an uphill battle, with several matches feeling unwinnable. I don't care how much I enjoy looking at my Snaps and Bolts and Remands if I'm getting handily overrun while staring at a hand of irrelevant cards. Just not a good play experience and not worth the feelbads, IMO.

I'm of the rare breed that places the gameplay experience above winning or losing. This is a hobby that is supposed to be enjoyable, and it is wholly unreasonable to expect to win every time. But I don't think it's at all unreasonable to expect your games to not be bland and repetitive, or obnoxious, frustrating, horrid experiences.

Again, just waiting for Forsythe to tell us what the hell he expects Modern to be, and how they intend to achieve that vision.
Last edited by cfusionpm 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by motleyslayer » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
If your goal is to be on the best deck, you will ALWAYS be limited to around 3 options, and its not particularly relevant to most of us, because the meta is irrelevant unless you need to.
I just want a good play experience, which means minimizing games that are overwhelmingly one-sided. Right now that means playing Bant Snow. Most of my games go past turn 7 or 8, and none of them feel like an extreme blowout one way or the other. With UR, every match feels like an uphill battle, with several matches feeling unwinnable. I don't care how much I enjoy looking at my Snaps and Bolts and Remands if I'm getting handily overrun while staring at a hand of irrelevant cards. Just not a good play experience and not worth the feelbads, IMO.

I'm of the rare breed that places the gameplay experience above winning or losing. This is a hobby that is supposed to be enjoyable, and it is wholly unreasonable to expect to win every time. But I don't think it's at all unreasonable to expect your games to not be bland and repetitive, or obnoxious, frustrating, horrid experiences.

Again, just waiting for Forsythe to tell us what the hell he expects Modern to be, and how they intend to achieve that vision.
I know several people who have traditionally loved modern that have just stepped back from the game in the past 6 months or so because they just can't enjoy the format anymore and don't wanna invest in another format.

I was actually having the conversation last night where my buddy essentially said that he wished they stopped printing cards in 2018, which is incorrect for several reasons. But the main thing is that 2019 broke so much in Magic as a whole, not just modern. I don't know if that can relate to the lack of direction but they for sure pushed things too far last year

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

Was forced to stop playtesting with friends, because of covid, but I still like and enjoy modern. Have a complete snow deck, and if that get banned I have a backup angler deck to play when things go back to normal. Everyone, I hope you stay safe from the virus.
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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Challenge isn't up yet but here's the Super Qualifier:
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... 2020-03-22

Might do the Reddit breakdown later, but here's the T16 for now:

1. Humans
2. Amulet Titan
3. Dredge
4. Burn
5. Dredge
6. Bant Snow Control
7. Temur Fire Turns (sweet Astrolabe deck)
8. Burn
9. Temur Superfriends Midrange (only 2 Astrolabes; also sweet)
10. Jund
11. Mono G Tron
12. Temur Urza
13. Mono R Prowess
14. Humans
15. Eldrazi Tron
16. Mono R Prowess
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motleyslayer
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Post by motleyslayer » 1 year ago

I'm interested in seeing the Temur turns and superfriends lists. I know Temur Urza lists have been around for a bit now at this point.

Is Humans good again now?

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

motleyslayer wrote:
1 year ago
I'm interested in seeing the Temur turns and superfriends lists. I know Temur Urza lists have been around for a bit now at this point.

Is Humans good again now?
The Temur Turns list is by that wonky quadruple sleeve Turns player, Daniel Wong. He does a lot of work for the deck. I've literally not seen him play another deck (some version of Turns) in Modern. :laugh:
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Jeskai Phoenix, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by motleyslayer » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
motleyslayer wrote:
1 year ago
I'm interested in seeing the Temur turns and superfriends lists. I know Temur Urza lists have been around for a bit now at this point.

Is Humans good again now?
The Temur Turns list is by that wonky quadruple sleeve Turns player, Daniel Wong. He does a lot of work for the deck. I've literally not seen him play another deck (some version of Turns) in Modern. :laugh:
I know quad sleeve player, temur turns is interesting because all I've seen is the mono blue but then again I don't really pay attention to that deck. So there's probably some kind of spice in temur turns that's probably made possible by astrolab

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
1. Humans
2. Amulet Titan
3. Dredge
4. Burn
5. Dredge
6. Bant Snow Control
7. Temur Fire Turns (sweet Astrolabe deck)
8. Burn
9. Temur Superfriends Midrange (only 2 Astrolabes; also sweet)
10. Jund
11. Mono G Tron
12. Temur Urza
13. Mono R Prowess
14. Humans
15. Eldrazi Tron
16. Mono R Prowess
Aggro: Humans x 2, Dredge x 2, Burn x 2, Prowess x 2
Mid: Jund, Superfriends?
Control: Bant
Combo: Turns
Big Mana: E-Tron, G-Tron

Seems your typical 'unknown meta? go to the face!'
UR Control UR

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

motleyslayer wrote:
1 year ago
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
motleyslayer wrote:
1 year ago
I'm interested in seeing the Temur turns and superfriends lists. I know Temur Urza lists have been around for a bit now at this point.

Is Humans good again now?
The Temur Turns list is by that wonky quadruple sleeve Turns player, Daniel Wong. He does a lot of work for the deck. I've literally not seen him play another deck (some version of Turns) in Modern. :laugh:
I know quad sleeve player, temur turns is interesting because all I've seen is the mono blue but then again I don't really pay attention to that deck. So there's probably some kind of spice in temur turns that's probably made possible by astrolab
Although I haven't really kept up with him much ever since my friend stopped playing Uw Turns a year ago (and discussing the deck with D Wong), I know he's been mostly on a UR version of Turns for probably a year now. I even played him in Round 1 of a PTQ and he got me in games 2 and 3 with more Thing in the Ice than Path to Exiles from me. :( We talked quite a bit and I told him that my friend got me into playing Turns a bit (not at that PTQ; I was Bogles). I was a fan of his and he helped my friend quite a bit. I told him that I still preferred Uw Turns to UR and he told me that he couldn't fault me for that.

The Green seems super obvious to add to a deck that is primarily Blue. There is a reason Breeding Pool has retained the highest price among shocklands, even long after Oko, Thief of Crowns was banned.
Spoiler
Show
FWIW, here's a somewhat basic view of Turns variants and mind you, I haven't run them in over a year.
1. Mono Blue Turns is the most "pure" version of Turns. It is probably the most fun of the variants.
2. Uw Turns has the best SB options and Path to Exile.
3. Ur Turns has burn, Chandra Torch, and now the all important Fires of Invention.
4. Ux Turns ... you could make any variants. Green for powerful options and potentially Fog. There was a Ub version that D. Wong tried for a bit, but he switched to Grixis almost right away. I think that was the point where he decided to go Red and never went back.
(I remember he played Ub Turns at a GP a while ago because his White cards didn't come in the mail in time to switch to Uw. He really is an innovator because he plays a lot and he plays only Turns.)
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Jeskai Phoenix, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by motleyslayer » 1 year ago

I guess the deck that wants to take a bunch of turns can make use of a lot of fog effects. I remember watching him play a Ub turns deck a while ago but couldn't remember where I saw it.

In regards to breeding pool though, I feel that even if you ignore Oko, UG has gotten pretty pushed in a few formats though. Uro is nuts. Veil is absurd and a lot of the Urza decks were UGx before the bans

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Post by Ym1r » 1 year ago

motleyslayer wrote:
1 year ago
In regards to breeding pool though, I feel that even if you ignore Oko, UG has gotten pretty pushed in a few formats though. Uro is nuts. Veil is absurd and a lot of the Urza decks were UGx before the bans
Admittedly however, UG has been absolute trash for YEARS in modern. I am fine with UG having the spotlight for some time.
Counter, draw a card.

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Post by motleyslayer » 1 year ago

Ym1r wrote:
1 year ago
motleyslayer wrote:
1 year ago
In regards to breeding pool though, I feel that even if you ignore Oko, UG has gotten pretty pushed in a few formats though. Uro is nuts. Veil is absurd and a lot of the Urza decks were UGx before the bans
Admittedly however, UG has been absolute trash for YEARS in modern. I am fine with UG having the spotlight for some time.
that's true, for years the only real UG deck was infect which fell in and out of favour but kind of fell off with no probe. My buddy had a Temur delver deck that was okay and Temur twin was sort of fringe as well

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

I personally see Uro, Nature's Wrath as a potential bannable card in the future. It's essentially very similar to Oko, but with some build around. Other than that, the card is prime to take over a game.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Jeskai Phoenix, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by Yawgmoth » 1 year ago

The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
Was forced to stop playtesting with friends, because of covid, but I still like and enjoy modern. Have a complete snow deck, and if that get banned I have a backup angler deck to play when things go back to normal. Everyone, I hope you stay safe from the virus.
A group of players from my LGS started a discoed group to coordinate webcam based games of Magic so we can keep up our regular deck testing during all of this.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Challenge isn't up yet but here's the Super Qualifier:
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... 2020-03-22

Might do the Reddit breakdown later, but here's the T16 for now:

1. Humans
2. Amulet Titan
3. Dredge
4. Burn
5. Dredge
6. Bant Snow Control
7. Temur Fire Turns (sweet Astrolabe deck)
8. Burn
9. Temur Superfriends Midrange (only 2 Astrolabes; also sweet)
10. Jund
11. Mono G Tron
12. Temur Urza
13. Mono R Prowess
14. Humans
15. Eldrazi Tron
16. Mono R Prowess
that's a pretty good list of decks. Nice to see Humans, Burn, Amulet, Titan, Dredge, and Jund. And some rogue decks too. :)

@Yawgmoth

well, that's nice you have such a thing setup.

over here, we have most testings finished anyways. I would just wait out until this pandemic would pass.
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Post by Spsiegel1987 » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
I personally see Uro, Nature's Wrath as a potential bannable card in the future. It's essentially very similar to Oko, but with some build around. Other than that, the card is prime to take over a game.
I dont think as of now uro is the bannable card. Unlike oko, he cant be splashed and easily slotted for. He also is part of an identity to a certain archetype and deck. Oko was a must play.

When you have astrolabe, which creates perfect mana, the ability to take less fetch damage, and mana so perfect you can also run mystic santuaries in a three color deck, this is the problem.

I'm still shocked some people dont see how awful astrolabe is.

Mystic is also a dumb card, why they chose to make a fetchable snapcaster mage is beyond me. I don't mind it in whirza as much due to their very slow clock and mainly being two colors. I do have an issue with a deck that basically plays 3.5 to 4 colors and uses it very well.

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Post by TheBoulderer » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Uro is very difficult to escape. UUGG and 1UG before that ensures that if you are paying for those mana costs, you need to put something badass in the battlefield, so he is perfectly fine and not bannable at all. It's funny speaking of URO being bannable, utterly funny.

The only problem, if one, is that people can easily escape it via Astrolabe. If it wasn't for that, there would be cases that most people could not find UUGG mana costs to escape it at all.

0% that URO will ever be bannable. I mean, if URO is bannable, what do you even make of Primeval titan, an easier creature to cast that can bring two 2/2 and 2 lands with it? Prime time is a much better card.
Agreed on most counts. The mana-hungry casting costs of the titan + exile 5 cards is an ok cost for the effect, unless Astrolabe gives you perfect mana 90% of games. Astrolabe doesn't ramp, but it draws a card and is hard to interact with. Mana dorks would be much easier to interact with.

I wouldn't say Titan is strictly better. It's a pure build-around card. In dedicated titan decks, sure its better. But its hard to directly compare the two.

Will COVID-19 push the next BR announcement back? because WotC should still be getting a ton of data from MTGO.

I hope it doesn't because I want those insane cards (Veil, Astrolabe) gone BADLY.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

TheBoulderer wrote:
1 year ago
Will COVID-19 push the next BR announcement back? because WotC should still be getting a ton of data from MTGO.

I hope it doesn't because I want those insane cards (Veil, Astrolabe) gone BADLY.
The good news is that WOTC is likely collecting considerably more MTGO data than normal, giving them a great picture of relative dominance and problems. The bad news is that without paper tournaments to shine a spotlight on those issues, and their reluctance to share any of that juicy number beef with us, it means a whole lotta nothin.

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Post by TheBoulderer » 1 year ago

An Expedition Map ban would be hilarious, but it seems very very very unlikely.

I'm quite calm about this in the long run by now tbh. Astrolabe and Veil are just so obviously oppressive that there is almost no way they'll stay legal beyond the next B&R announcement. Sure this discussion will go on here, but by now it's indisputable really

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Post by Spsiegel1987 » 1 year ago

...as someone who hates tron, I dont think its fair whatsoever to even consider an expedition map ban. Its not even relevant outside of the tron archetypes.

I also dont think veil of summer is the issue (although down the road itll hopefully get the ban it deserves), it's absolutely astrolabe. Astrolabe, while it isnt DRS, its very much giving me that feeling of playing that 1 mana drop or you're doing something wrong.

I also said it a few days ago, if you arent an astrolabe deck, you better be on amulet or tron.

I'd almost argue to unban DRS if you want to continue to keep astrolabe, but that's ridiculous, so the other option is banning astrolabe.

As much as I pushed field of the dead being banned, I think its prudent to monitor amulet instead of just jumping the gun, as without ouat the deck doesnt feel as stupid broken.

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Post by TheBoulderer » 1 year ago

Spsiegel1987 wrote:
1 year ago
...as someone who hates tron, I dont think its fair whatsoever to even consider an expedition map ban. Its not even relevant outside of the tron archetypes.

I also dont think veil of summer is the issue (although down the road itll hopefully get the ban it deserves), it's absolutely astrolabe. Astrolabe, while it isnt DRS, its very much giving me that feeling of playing that 1 mana drop or you're doing something wrong.
You're right, banning Map would be silly.

Have to disagree that Veil isn't the issue though. Astrolabe is much more visible as a maindeck 4of in all those lists, and obviously too good, but that doesn't take away from Veil's absurdity. Facing Veil post board as a non-white interactive deck is completely hopeless. 1 resolved copy is effectively game over most of the time. And it can't be played around, e.g. with discard.

Both need to go, urgently.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

TheBoulderer wrote:
1 year ago
Spsiegel1987 wrote:
1 year ago
...as someone who hates tron, I dont think its fair whatsoever to even consider an expedition map ban. Its not even relevant outside of the tron archetypes.

I also dont think veil of summer is the issue (although down the road itll hopefully get the ban it deserves), it's absolutely astrolabe. Astrolabe, while it isnt DRS, its very much giving me that feeling of playing that 1 mana drop or you're doing something wrong.
You're right, banning Map would be silly.

Have to disagree that Veil isn't the issue though. Astrolabe is much more visible as a maindeck 4of in all those lists, and obviously too good, but that doesn't take away from Veil's absurdity. Facing Veil post board as a non-white interactive deck is completely hopeless. 1 resolved copy is effectively game over most of the time. And it can't be played around, e.g. with discard.

Both need to go, urgently.
I don't think that banning of Veil of Summer is going to be enough to get players excited enough to play Blue or Black. Cards like Drown in the Loch were a big start, without doing something UB like Oko, Thief of Crowns to just PUUUUSH everyone to Watery Grave.dec.

But I also don't see a single reason that Veil of Summer should remain legal. I think the issue is that WotC wants to give players a certain time period to play and enjoy Snow decks before they drop the hammer. Only once that hammer is dropped should something like Veil of Summer be considered for banning because Veil is played much less (and mostly in SBs, even if I just saw a Titanshift player on MTGO 4-1 a League with 4 Veil MAIN BOARD). Astrolabe is not an Oko-type card, where everyone knows it should be banned, and it's just a matter of time. Astrolabe is a bit more controversial, even if many do in fact know that the card is on borrowed time. Remember, we were allowed to play Oko, Thief for at least 3 months, right?
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Jeskai Phoenix, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by Spsiegel1987 » 1 year ago

Oh, Veil should absolutely be banned. Veil banning won't change these absurd astrolabe decks, though.

Both cards are a mistake, get rid of both of them.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
I don't think that banning of Veil of Summer is going to be enough to get players excited enough to play Blue or Black. Cards like Drown in the Loch were a big start, without doing something UB like Oko, Thief of Crowns to just PUUUUSH everyone to Watery Grave.dec.
Imagine a UB Titan under the current design structure:

1UB
When UB Titan enters the battlefield or attacks, draw a card and target opponent discards a card.
Escape UUBB.
6/6

:party: :party: :party: :explode:

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