[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Thats kind of the thing. How many things could they clean up? What would it do if they banned 3, 4, maybe 5 cards?

Would kill Modern.
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
The argument I always heard is that Affinity is easy to hate out, so Mox Opal is fine. Urza made the Mox Opal deck impossible to hate out.
having played affinity for more than 7 years, I could say it's one of the easiest decks to hate out. It would win too much, then people bring more artifact hosers, then affinity would decrease like how bacteria die to antibiotics. If the robots recur, then it's time for some artifact hosers to cure the robot problem again. Stony Silence shuts down more than 10 cards in the deck, fracturing gust destroys almost everything, ancient gurdge is 1gr destroy two target nonland permanent, hurkyll's recall allows merfolk to swing back with almost no resistance from robots. Being subjected to all kinds of hard hate made me sell all the money cards in raffinity... ravager, opal, inkmoth, sold them all to get goyf and some other cards. Well, goyf in turn get's hosed by anti gy cards, but not as bad as robots getting all blown up by creeping corrosion = almost free win. Well, all is not lost... the remaining affinity cards are enough to make a decent pauper deck, so they're still useful. :)
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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

The problem for me is not cards like Tef or 4c Karn. They stop people doing things. Yes that includes stopping people countering. Stopping people countering is done all the time in Legacy with no issues, and vintage too- Nethervoid was common once, Trinisphere and Cavern of S still are and City of Solitude and In the Eye of Chaos exist in that format, etc. Stopping people activate artifacts is fine too- Null Rod and Stony have been around for years. Control for everyone in Modern means one thing- UWx counters and board sweepers. That is it. Modern has had a couple of vaguely successful prison decks at times- Pyro prison, Top,, and its own weak hatebear decks, but whereas a prison legacy deck will leave someone locked early, the modern versions are inefficient and allow people to escape producing dull games which would be concessions in older formats. When prison exists as an option you have two ways to control decks- counterspells and sweepers as one, and hate permanents, often with landkill as the other. The absence of the prison means decks like tron get out of hand as more stuff comes in to support them and more commander friendly big stuff is printed to ramp into. The big mana decks in legacy, like cloudpost- roll over the UWx control, but they themselves are vulnerable to prison strategies and hatebears.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

You are making all sorts of assumptions, almost all of which rely on exactly what I have been saying: New cards that are obviously broken, or lead to things being broken, do not get banned unless absolutely forced to do so by public outcry. The old card basically always gets the ax, whether it is the real problem or not.

Again, whether this is tin foil hat or not, it's an excellent way to make sure those who own the deck need to shell out money for the new stuff and force upgrades in "non-rotating" formats, whether it's the right call or not.

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Post by Tomatotime » 1 year ago

I haven't been following this thread super carefully the past week or so but I have been skimming a bit and I would like to make a couple of comments:

1. If mid range is in fact getting a boost from Astrolabe, the burden is on the solitaire players to actually prove that this is worse than the prior meta dominated exclusively by uninteractive decks. Even if most of the format is 4-5 color piles, what of it? If players are playing the cards they want to play, and the solitaire decks are getting pushed back, what is the problem?

2. This honeymoon period people are claiming Modern to be in might not actually exist as there isn't a lot of true dedicated attention being thrown Modern's way in terms of finding broken decks at the moment, and if something was broken, we wouldn't even know because;

3. There are no higher level paper tournaments taking place, and there wont be any time soon with Magic Fests, and SCG's getting canceled left and right, as such the very notion of a "meta" is insanely speculative right now, and that isn't going to change. Ultimately WOTC itself controls all the data from MTGO with an iron grip, if something is broken, we aren't going to know anyways.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
&TLDR: Every banning Wizards made was a very good one(leave Twin aside, I don't wanna speak about it anymore), and some were excellent(see; gitaxian probe, DS would have broken it, mox opal: underworld breach would have broken it).
Did they not see Hogaak? Sure, but there was a chance Hogaak would be fine without it, and that would be a net positive. When they saw that, they corrected it.
Also, if it was only for the $$$, they would ban around Oko and let him sell in Std and not ban him right away.
I'm pretty ambivalent on Gitaxian Probe and the reasons for the ban. I do want to point out though that after banning Probe Death's Shadow became a much better deck despite no new cards being printed for it, people simply built a better configuration with what was available. The same thing happened to Hogaak once Bridge from Below was banned.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago
gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
&TLDR: Every banning Wizards made was a very good one(leave Twin aside, I don't wanna speak about it anymore), and some were excellent(see; gitaxian probe, DS would have broken it, mox opal: underworld breach would have broken it).
Did they not see Hogaak? Sure, but there was a chance Hogaak would be fine without it, and that would be a net positive. When they saw that, they corrected it.
Also, if it was only for the $$$, they would ban around Oko and let him sell in Std and not ban him right away.
I'm pretty ambivalent on Gitaxian Probe and the reasons for the ban. I do want to point out though that after banning Probe Death's Shadow became a much better deck despite no new cards being printed for it, people simply built a better configuration with what was available. The same thing happened to Hogaak once Bridge from Below was banned.
So did Storm, by moving to a Baral/Gifts package very successfully. And Infect/Pump Zoo were Pushed out thanks to new cards, much more so than the loss of their cantrip. It's almost as if Gitaxian Probe wasn't what made those decks too good...... :thinking: :thinking: :thinking:

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Now, people can't really see that if Mox Opal was legal, Underworld breach would have it's modern version of Lion's Eye Diamond and it would be either another mox opal deck or opal itself. I know, you are probably going to say "the fault is on them, because they are letting cards like Breach out of their factory" and you would be right. But, that's the situation we are into, that's the new reality. More breaches are going to come along the way.
This is irrelevant for 2 reasons.

1. Underworld Breach should have never been printed. I'm sure you could say the same thing about Once Upon a Time, or if you believe that cards should be printed to be played brokenly for 2 weeks to 2 months before bannings in various formats, then it's okay.

2. Breach already has a Lion's Eye Diamond in Mox Amber. I'm not gonna lie and say that they're the same and it wouldn't play Mox Opal, which is nearly strictly better, but they already have the tools to do what Mox Opal was gonna do anyhow.
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
This is irrelevant for 2 reasons.

1. Underworld Breach should have never been printed. I'm sure you could say the same thing about Once Upon a Time, or if you believe that cards should be printed to be played brokenly for 2 weeks to 2 months before bannings in various formats, then it's okay.

2. Breach already has a Lion's Eye Diamond in Mox Amber. I'm not gonna lie and say that they're the same and it wouldn't play Mox Opal, which is nearly strictly better, but they already have the tools to do what Mox Opal was gonna do anyhow.
Breach is doing nothing though. I mean I tried to put it together online, but I dont have the desire to spend the money (MTGO economy is dumb) so its all just theory, but...Breach isnt competitive, based on what's going on right now from what I can see.
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
This is irrelevant for 2 reasons.

1. Underworld Breach should have never been printed. I'm sure you could say the same thing about Once Upon a Time, or if you believe that cards should be printed to be played brokenly for 2 weeks to 2 months before bannings in various formats, then it's okay.

2. Breach already has a Lion's Eye Diamond in Mox Amber. I'm not gonna lie and say that they're the same and it wouldn't play Mox Opal, which is nearly strictly better, but they already have the tools to do what Mox Opal was gonna do anyhow.
Breach is doing nothing though. I mean I tried to put it together online, but I dont have the desire to spend the money (MTGO economy is dumb) so its all just theory, but...Breach isnt competitive, based on what's going on right now from what I can see.
There have been some players like Pascal Maynard who have claimed it to be super strong. My friend who plays online has also talked to a discord of grinders and Pros who are on the deck and have the same claims as Pascal Maynard.

But even if it is not busted, a card this similar to Yawgmoth's Will should never be printed. Like others have pointed out, either the card breaks and is way too good or it sees no play at all due to being terrible. There is no in between unfortunately for cards like this.

*I think Shaheen Soorani won his Regionals with Underworld Breach, but obviously that is a tiny sample size.
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Oh for sure it shouldnt exist, it is bound to break eventually, may even be busted now, but its tough to say its broken just because the potential is there.

Neoform is a Turn 1 deck, still essentially a 'do nothing' like Cherri0's for now.
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Post by Tomatotime » 1 year ago

So just to confirm, I think we can basically all agree to if nothing else, meta talks and complaints are completely moot at this point with the virus in it's current state. We can potentially debate MTGO data, but our access to it is extremely limited and at Wotc's discretion. Adding to that, the complaints aren't entirely useful until Forscythe gives his updated stance on Modern as a format. In any event, cyu guys.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

I mean, it's pretty much always moot, especially since the introduction of Pioneer. Nothing we say or do matters, and everything discuss here is purely for self satisfaction. I came to terms with that long ago; even more so when Modern GP support dwindled and paper GP coverage evaporated. COVID-19 didn't change that, it just brought crystal clarity.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Modern is a very fine format, either way. Not much need for changes.Midrange/control snow decks getting into tier 1 is the perfect spot for Modern to be. For all Modern enthusiasts, I think Modern is in one of the best places it's ever been.
In paper, if and when there is a paper, the influx of Snow decks and semi mirror matches is going to make for a much longer tournament. I'm not sure if people are ready for this, as these decks are grindy as %$#%.

I don't know how you can say that Modern is in one of the best places it's been when there are still design mistakes out there that are currently legal. I would say that Modern hasn't been worse, outside of Eye of Ugin, Hogaak, Golgari Grave-Troll Dredge being pushed by new cards, or Treasure Cruise Delver. I personally felt much better at any of these times, as I was not forced to run Snow or decks that kill Snow. (Tron variants?)
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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Tomatotime wrote:
1 year ago
So just to confirm, I think we can basically all agree to if nothing else, meta talks and complaints are completely moot at this point with the virus in it's current state. We can potentially debate MTGO data, but our access to it is extremely limited and at Wotc's discretion. Adding to that, the complaints aren't entirely useful until Forscythe gives his updated stance on Modern as a format. In any event, cyu guys.
I agree we will benefit from Forsythe's statement, but I also think the MTGO data we have is a lot more accurate than we often think. Challenge, PTQ, Premier results have accurately predicted the last four bans. In the Oko and Opal case, this was less impressive because paper events (including major GP/Opens) so clearly showed these decks were problems. Lattice, however, did not present as a paper issue as much as it did as a problem on MTGO. Despite this, I plus others successfully predicted that ban based on MTGO more-or-less alone. This was even more impressive with OUaT. OUaT was a ban I and others predicted off of purely MTGO data with basically zero relevant paper events. We did so off Challenges, Premiers, Prelims, PTQs, etc.; curated Leagues didn't play into this at all. I believe we could use similar methods to identify problems on MTGO in the future.

I know CFP and other Modern critics will maintain (paraphrasing a post of his) that Wizards will ban what it wants and then create the justification later. This may or may not be true, but at least in 2020, we have successfully predicted all Modern bans so far using MTGO and other publicly available data sources. We should continue to draw on those sources to assess format health, even if we're waiting for Forsythe's statement.
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

Tomatotime wrote:
1 year ago
So just to confirm, I think we can basically all agree to if nothing else, meta talks and complaints are completely moot at this point with the virus in it's current state. We can potentially debate MTGO data, but our access to it is extremely limited and at Wotc's discretion. Adding to that, the complaints aren't entirely useful until Forscythe gives his updated stance on Modern as a format. In any event, cyu guys.
the virus does take it's toll. Simply playing face to face with people these days terrify me. Borders of the city are closed, two people died from the virus less than a kilometer from my house, total community lockdown, public vehicles with multiple people are flagged down and ordered to stop to help halt virus spread. At this point my goal is simply to survive than worry about mtg related stuff.
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Post by TheBoulderer » 1 year ago

I wrote that I got blown out by double Veil of Summer protecting a JtmS a few posts back. The exact same thing just happened with Veil of Summer forcing through a Teferi. I will reiterate: %$#% THIS FORMAT as long as Veil is legal. %$#% IT. How %$#% stupid can WotC be????? they already had 2 opportunities to ban this retarded piece of %$#% of a card. Sorry for swearing but it is completely appropriate here.

Needless to say it was a UW Snow Control list with 0 green mana sources just cheating Veil in with Astrolabe for green. This %$#% right here is modern in a nutshell. If they don't change things and modern dies, that is totally deserved and I won't shed a tear.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

TheBoulderer wrote:
1 year ago
I wrote that I got blown out by double Veil of Summer protecting a JtmS a few posts back. The exact same thing just happened with Veil of Summer forcing through a Teferi. I will reiterate: %$#% THIS FORMAT as long as Veil is legal. %$#% IT. How %$#% stupid can WotC be????? they already had 2 opportunities to ban this retarded piece of %$#% of a card. Sorry for swearing but it is completely appropriate here.

Needless to say it was a UW Snow Control list with 0 green mana sources just cheating Veil in with Astrolabe for green. This %$#% right here is modern in a nutshell. If they don't change things and modern dies, that is totally deserved and I won't shed a tear.
On the one hand, I agree now, and have agreed for months, that Veil is a horrible card for the format that should be banned. It does not contribute to any deck's identity, which makes it a good target alongside stuff like Lattice and OUaT. It also creates too much additional incentive to play UGx and avoid discard-based strategies. I suspect we'll see slightly more Shadow decks and slightly more non green-based Ux decks if Veil was removed, without too much of a hit to the UGx Snow renaissance. This is a net diversity and gameplay experience gain.

On the other hand, this line is way too extreme: "If they don't change things and modern dies, that is totally deserved and I won't shed a tear." Modern may well be in trouble right now and may continue to be in trouble for weeks/months to come, but Veil is a really tiny contributor to that threat. Veil is not the format-wide problem you are making it out to be (i.e. "%$#% THIS FORMAT as long as Veil is legal). It's important we don't overstate a card's problems because it makes it difficult to rally supporters to a ban case. It would have been easy for me and other anti-OUaT folks to make similarly hyperbolic cases against that poorly-designed cantrip, but this would have mischaracterized its damage to the format and made the ban case less likely. Veil is a surgical ban, and we need our Veil criticisms to be similarly surgical. Call it out for what it is and not its most extreme criticism.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
I know CFP and other Modern critics will maintain (paraphrasing a post of his) that Wizards will ban what it wants and then create the justification later. This may or may not be true, but at least in 2020, we have successfully predicted all Modern bans so far using MTGO and other publicly available data sources. We should continue to draw on those sources to assess format health, even if we're waiting for Forsythe's statement.
I mean, it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to see that Oko was broken and free cantrips are on their #1 hit list. Opal has been a target for years, and Lattice was an easy "get out of jail" card for the atrocious design failure that was Karn, The Repeatable Tutor.

However, as far as collectively "being right" according to the January 2020 poll, we're mediocre at best. The #1 ban target in January (with only 17%) was Oko, followed almost immediately (16%) by Veil of Summer. and Urza himself was in 3rd place with 12%. Lattice, Opal, Once, and Astrolabe were effectively tied at about 7-8%, but considerably less than the others, and very low overall. Previous polls showed the same misunderstanding threat evaluation, where we made the same mistake as WOTC. We also wanted Bridge (33%) banned over Hogaak (5%) and were all wrong. But I guess we nailed it on the most obvious ban announcement since Eye of Ugin. /shrug

I still stand by WOTC bans what they want, when they want, and why they want. They let things like Looting languish and ruin the format for about a year and a half, and let Hogaak personally ruin multiple GPs due to their incorrect actions as well as inaction against an obvious target. Because they do what they want when they want for whatever reason they want. The only reason to act otherwise is to respond to overwhelming public outcry.

As a last note, I will add that Veil is an utterly stupid card, as it shuts down the desire to interact. It punishes those who want to interact by making their interaction less effective or even worthless. The fact that Veil's effects linger until end of turn are almost as bad as it drawing a card.
Last edited by cfusionpm 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
3) Faithless Looting. Most of us thought it was only going to be Hogaak (credits to some people, like cfusionpm mentioning Looting, I remember that, but did you actually believe it was going to happen, or just want it to happen?)
What *should* happen, and what WOTC will do are often two very different things. Especially given their endless parade of failures for the past year.

Again, a nice article from Forsythe as well as a clear direction and vision for Modern would do wonders in changing this perspective.

But at the end of the day, do they even care? They're making record profits and are cashing in on Arena. We do not matter to them. We buy their crap no matter how awful it is. They have no need to cater to us.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

I'm sure they love the Snow decks. Looking to build online right now, $180 for playset of Uro, $140 for playset of Ice-Fangs, and a whopping $450 for a playset of W6s. I know WOTC doesn't see direct profits from these sales, but the traffic it generates, the demand for the sealed product where they are currently available, and the future reprint equity they hold are all net positives for them. They also make for great grindy interactive gameplay.

I'm all for that kind of deck being good. What I'm NOT AT ALL fine with is spending the $770 needed for these cards, just for them to A) be banned, B) see a piece banned that makes them considerably worse (like Astrolabe), or C) they print another $50 Mythic that makes one or more piece irrelevant and requires a playset to be competitive.

None of that inspires confidence in the format. And none of that confidence will exist until Forsythe (or anyone from WOTC) tells us what the hell they envision Modern being. Because it's hard to even consider this a "non rotating format" when decks are banned and printed out of existence left and right.

Bannings or unbannings do not fix the fundamental problems that Modern has. My selfish desire to want Twin is based on the assumption that the underlying problems will **NEVER** be fixed. So if everyone else gets to play their degenerate garbage (most of which is considerably more narrow, annoying, difficult, and frustrating to deal with than Twin ever was), I want to be able to do my thing too. Or at least do something without having to drop a month's mortgage on replacing all of my expensive-and-now-irrelevant cards in this "non-rotating" format.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
cfusionpm, hard agree with everything you said. Really, did not expect seeing you express this opinion.
For years, I thought you thought twin was going to solve moderns biggest problems.
Hatts off, sir!
It's not mutually exclusive. I think it would help promote interaction by punishing those who don't, especially how easy it is to interact with a non-recurring creature. But I also have a hard time seeing it remaining banned with more egregious and annoying things exist, and continue to exist otherwise. I honestly don't even think it would be that good today, Veil or not. (Though Veil is still unreasonably bad design and should not exist, regardless).

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
I know CFP and other Modern critics will maintain (paraphrasing a post of his) that Wizards will ban what it wants and then create the justification later. This may or may not be true, but at least in 2020, we have successfully predicted all Modern bans so far using MTGO and other publicly available data sources. We should continue to draw on those sources to assess format health, even if we're waiting for Forsythe's statement.
I mean, it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to see that Oko was broken and free cantrips are on their #1 hit list. Opal has been a target for years, and Lattice was an easy "get out of jail" card for the atrocious design failure that was Karn, The Repeatable Tutor.

However, as far as collectively "being right" according to the January 2020 poll, we're mediocre at best. The #1 ban target in January (with only 17%) was Oko, followed almost immediately (16%) by Veil of Summer. and Urza himself was in 3rd place with 12%. Lattice, Opal, Once, and Astrolabe were effectively tied at about 7-8%, but considerably less than the others, and very low overall. Previous polls showed the same misunderstanding threat evaluation, where we made the same mistake as WOTC. We also wanted Bridge (33%) banned over Hogaak (5%) and were all wrong. But I guess we nailed it on the most obvious ban announcement since Eye of Ugin. /shrug

I still stand by WOTC bans what they want, when they want, and why they want. They let things like Looting languish and ruin the format for about a year and a half, and let Hogaak personally ruin multiple GPs due to their incorrect actions as well as inaction against an obvious target. Because they do what they want when they want for whatever reason they want. The only reason to act otherwise is to respond to overwhelming public outcry.

As a last note, I will add that Veil is an utterly stupid card, as it shuts down the desire to interact. It punishes those who want to interact by making their interaction less effective or even worthless. The fact that Veil's effects linger until end of turn are almost as bad as it drawing a card.
This post is spot on, but I want to refer to the bolded part.

I did NOT KNOW that 33% of people here wanted Bridge banned and Hogaak not banned. I retract all of the statements where I said that "everyone knew that Hogaak was the correct banning." I assumed so because it seemed obvious to me. I even questioned people here and asked, "is an 8/8 for 2 convoked creatures on turn 3 acceptable in Modern?" to which I rarely got a straight reply. So I made my own reply. I said that I don't think it is acceptable because really only Path to Exile deals with that in a suitable manner. I'm sorry to any of you who I argued that everyone knew Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis to be the problem and not Bridge. Sorry.
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
So many.

Stirrings. Astrolabe, Emry, Karn, OuaT, Oko, T3feri, Veil.

No joke, those all should go.
I'll stand by this. :]
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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
I mean, it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to see that Oko was broken and free cantrips are on their #1 hit list. Opal has been a target for years, and Lattice was an easy "get out of jail" card for the atrocious design failure that was Karn, The Repeatable Tutor.
As I said in the quoted post, I agree Oko was not exactly a difficult prediction. But there were many who did not predict something getting banned from Urza decks, and I'm not aware of any others besides me who predicted the Lattice ban on any citeable source. Maybe someone did here or elsewhere and I'm not remembering, but when I called for that ban, I was doing so based on MTGO data and not the paper picture.
However, as far as collectively "being right" according to the January 2020 poll, we're mediocre at best. The #1 ban target in January (with only 17%) was Oko, followed almost immediately (16%) by Veil of Summer. and Urza himself was in 3rd place with 12%. Lattice, Opal, Once, and Astrolabe were effectively tied at about 7-8%, but considerably less than the others, and very low overall. Previous polls showed the same misunderstanding threat evaluation, where we made the same mistake as WOTC. We also wanted Bridge (33%) banned over Hogaak (5%) and were all wrong. But I guess we nailed it on the most obvious ban announcement since Eye of Ugin. /shrug
I should have been clearer here. I did not mean we as a community, but rather, we as those who predicted the recent bans. I could not remember who else in this thread agreed with my last few Tweeted predictions and just intended the "we" to cover all of them. I agree the community at large is terrible at predicting bans. That's because most of them, in my experience, don't use any data whatsoever and just make predictions/calls from personal preference. I imagine most public opinion polls don't accurately predict most Wizards actions, and our B&R polls are no exception. I believe we as a community will increase our accuracy by avoiding these personal biases and just looking at the data we have available. It's way better and more telling than you and other critics keep claiming.
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010

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