[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Necrofish
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Post by Necrofish » 2 years ago

People are so bad at predicting it's hilariuos.

Also it's fair to assume that the first decks to be played will always be the ones who don't need knowledge of the meta and just try to brute force their games.
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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
I understand that. But I think the strength that Hogaak keeps is on the back of a free, early, repeatable 8/8 trampler. That is almost always going to be good and almost always going to be powerful. If you remember this conversation, I was blasted for overstating the strength of the deck for simply repeating the sentiments held by someone who heavily plays the deck. It is still extremely powerful to flood the board with lots of power in the first few turns, and it's clear many pros feel the same way. I will be interested to see the Day 2/TopX numbers, especially given that Leyline of the Void is by far and away the most played card of the weekend (with Faithless Looting the second). People generally don't register memes or pet decks in a PT like they might in a GP. Several players (Reid Duke included) have actively chosen to play Hogaak, and that tells me a lot.
I'm also emphasizing this isn't a particularly bold or insightful prediction. The content mill and community conversation has been uproarious with Hogaak hype all summer. This was true even after Bridge's ban; I remember articles just days later saying Bridge might not be enough. People in this very thread said that without playing more than 24 hours of the new post-ban Modern. There's nothing predictive about echoing these hyperbolic opinions that come out of the pro/grinder/content echo chamber. This is absolutely the kind of hyperbole we should be fighting against while waiting for convincing data.
idSurge wrote:
2 years ago
ktkenshinx wrote:
2 years ago
Day 1 is just a popularity contest in an inbred pro-level echo chamber, which has been particularly loud as Modern has been increasingly dominated by Tweets, soundbites, and hyperbole. Even if Hogaak ends up going crazy into Day 2 and beyond, the Day 1 numbers cannot be taken as an indicator of anything.
Even Day 2 numbers dont mean much, there is still a draft portion here is there not?

The only part that matters at all, is Modern win rate.
Day 2 isn't too relevant, but matters to some extent. Conversion rates matter a little and you can control for the Draft record. But yes, you are right that Day 2 MC/PT data isn't nearly as useful as GP Day 2 data.
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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
2 years ago
I'm also emphasizing this isn't a particularly bold or insightful prediction. The content mill and community conversation has been uproarious with Hogaak hype all summer. This was true even after Bridge's ban; I remember articles just days later saying Bridge might not be enough. People in this very thread said that without playing more than 24 hours of the new post-ban Modern. There's nothing predictive about echoing these hyperbolic opinions that come out of the pro/grinder/content echo chamber. This is absolutely the kind of hyperbole we should be fighting against while waiting for convincing data.
I was just repeating the testing and experience of someone extremely familiar with the deck. And the Pros seemed to have come to the same conclusion. Looking at what the deck does, what it is still capable of, and how resilient it can be, it seems like an extremely non-controversial opinion to hold that the deck is still very, very good. Whether or not it's still "too good" is the trickier question.

I also look forward to seeing if my other ridiculed opinion comes to fruition too (Phoenix remaining the best deck in Modern). Whether or not we have data to back up these assertions will become clear over the next few weeks. If only we had meaningful MTGO data... Though, prices of some cards could be a good indication (such as Finale of Promise, a key component for Aria Phoenix, jumping to nearly $50 online)

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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

If Jund at all holds its place, it SHOULD be able to dent Phoenix.
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Post by robertleva » 2 years ago

Called it. Annnnnnd right behind hogaak we have ANOTHER deck abusing Faithless Looting. Im glad some of yall are eating your words, as for the rest of you, what is it going to take before you realize that Looting is too strong for this format?
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Post by pierreb » 2 years ago

There's using in abusing. Hyperbole is just a word game. GY decks have been deemed fine in modern, so you are better off accepting that the card pool contains GY enablers.

Also, 2 of the current top-3 of the MC IV is UW control and esper control. Phoenix is losing to tron on camera. etc. Give it a rest.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
I was just repeating the testing and experience of someone extremely familiar with the deck. And the Pros seemed to have come to the same conclusion. Looking at what the deck does, what it is still capable of, and how resilient it can be, it seems like an extremely non-controversial opinion to hold that the deck is still very, very good. Whether or not it's still "too good" is the trickier question.

I also look forward to seeing if my other ridiculed opinion comes to fruition too (Phoenix remaining the best deck in Modern). Whether or not we have data to back up these assertions will become clear over the next few weeks. If only we had meaningful MTGO data... Though, prices of some cards could be a good indication (such as Finale of Promise, a key component for Aria Phoenix, jumping to nearly $50 online)
robertleva wrote:
2 years ago
Called it. Annnnnnd right behind hogaak we have ANOTHER deck abusing Faithless Looting. Im glad some of yall are eating your words, as for the rest of you, what is it going to take before you realize that Looting is too strong for this format?
These posts represent a broader trend that is problematic for Modern. It's probably problematic for Magic overall, as well as other discussions (politics, anyone?), but I'll stick with it in a Modern context. This is the problem of soundbites, Tweets, upvotes, "I told you so" points, and people being very concerned with hot takes and being "right". I have no issue with people making informed, evidence-based predictions about Modern or any other format. Predictions and forecasts are awesome tools which inform our understanding of the game. Unfortunately, that's not what we see in statements like "some of yall are eating your words" and highlighting the personal feeling of "I also look forward to seeing if my other ridiculed opinion comes to fruition too." I believe both of you are analytical and informed players who have put significant work into your understanding of Modern and its dynamics. That is also true of many pros. But too often, we see that experience reduced to this karma/upvote measuring contest that is about personalities and personal vindication, not collective format understanding.

Both I and others were never too worried about whether or not Hogaak/Phoenix/insert-hyped-deck-here would be broken. I am, however, deeply concerned with methodology. These kinds of "I told you so" narratives reduce counterpoints and dismiss evidence without presenting any evidence of their own. We need to make predictions based on data and evidence, presenting that supporting evidence with our arguments. Snap judgments, whether or not they end up being "right" in a single weekend's events, do nothing to advance our format understanding. This has been my main criticism of the Hogaak discussion from the beginning. Hogaak may be broken and may be bannable. Modern may have deeper problems. But the way to explore that is with deep analysis of the format and results, or just presenting evidence with our arguments. This is a good method that produces long-term accurate results and encourages constructive dialogue between players. It's not sweeping generalizations that sound good online but ultimately do not make for a compelling analysis method.
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 2 years ago

Simto wrote:
2 years ago
Hogaak is 21% of the Mythic Championship meta and Leyline of the Void is the most played card.

Time to watch this thread explode I guess hehe
Ok, I know real ban discussion based on this is info is not yet warranted and swap bans have never been a thing before, but this hogaak deck has already broken the norm by requiring a ban so quickly after its release. IF, notice the IF, hogaak turns out to need a ban in the very near future could we ever see Bridge unbanned? As long as hogaak is legal bridge will never return, but if it were banned I expect bridge would stay banned really for no reason other than to save face for WOTC. it would be like BBE was, banned for the sins of another card and then just sit on the ban list seemingly forever. Bridgevine was a deck before hogaak that was not teir 1 and it would be completely dead without bridge or hogaak.
Last edited by metalmusic_4 2 years ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
2 years ago
These kinds of "I told you so" narratives reduce counterpoints and dismiss evidence without presenting any evidence of their own.
These kinds of rebuttals would likely be less prominent if people stopped needlessly and endlessly mocking and insulting those who make such predictions from their personal experiences. It's a fairly natural response to say "I told you so" after a number of people obnoxiously pummel someone with variations of "you are wrong" (without their own meaningful evidence), and what they said came to fruition, pretty much exactly as predicted.
pierreb wrote:
2 years ago
There's using in abusing. Hyperbole is just a word game. GY decks have been deemed fine in modern, so you are better off accepting that the card pool contains GY enablers.

Also, 2 of the current top-3 of the MC IV is UW control and esper control. Phoenix is losing to tron on camera. etc. Give it a rest.
To be fair, their records are also influenced by 3 rounds of Limited, and that UW/Esper match showed us why Narset is egregiously obnoxious. Also shows us what happens when a control deck draws 10 lands in a row while opponent has Narset in play. For the Tron/Phoenix match, those were some nutty nut draws and timely top decks on Tron's part.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

metalmusic_4 wrote:
2 years ago
Ok, I know real ban discussion based on this is info is not yet warranted and swap bans have never been a thing before, but this hogaak deck has already broken the norm by requiring a ban so quickly after its release. IF, notice the IF, hogaak turns out to need a ban in the very near future could we ever see Bridge unbanned? As long as hogaak is legal bridge will never return, but if it were banned I expect bridge would stay banned really for no reason other than to save face for WOTC. it would be like BBE was, banned for the sins of another card and then just sit on the ban list seemingly forever. Bridgevine was a deck before hogaak that was not teir 1 and it would be completely dead without bridge or hogaak.
I expect Bridge will stay banned. Wizards noted in the ban update it was likely to be broken again as new GY cards come out, and we know Dredge and Dredge-related mechanics have been a serious problem at multiple points of Magic history. Hogaak would simply join Bridge if it required a banning.
cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
These kinds of rebuttals would likely be less prominent if people stopped needlessly and endlessly mocking and insulting those who make such predictions from their personal experiences. It's a fairly natural response to say "I told you so" after a number of people obnoxiously pummel someone with variations of "you are wrong" (without their own meaningful evidence), and what they said came to fruition, pretty much exactly as predicted.
I agree people should not mock or insult people who make predictions, even if those initial predictions are not presented with evidence. I would just encourage people to respond to those inappropriate responses with measured, evidence-based counterarguments. We don't elevate the conversation by fighting salt with salt. Whether or not a prediction is ultimately accurate is irrelevant on its own. We need to look at the method of that prediction and see if that method of prediction consistently produces results over time. I don't think I need to cite too much evidence to say that the ban mania, sky is falling hyperbole produces far more misses than hits if we just look at the history of Reddit posts and this thread alone (see calls for bans on Stirrings, Looting, Tron, Humans/Vial/Hierarch, GDS, and many others).
To be fair, their records are also influenced by 3 rounds of Limited, and that UW/Esper match showed us why Narset is egregiously obnoxious. Also shows us what happens when a control deck draws 10 lands in a row while opponent has Narset in play. For the Tron/Phoenix match, those were some nutty nut draws and timely top decks on Tron's part.
I am unwilling to draw a single conclusion from that N=1 Esper/UW matchup, other than it is nice to see UW/Esper vying for 8-0 in this event. I am also not particularly swayed by citing "nutty plays" in powerful, non-rotating formats that are defined by nutty plays. I will happily emphasize that Limited rounds make a big difference in this event, and need to be considered in the final analysis. The upcoming GP this month will be much more important for determining if the MC results are isolated (note: we don't even have those results) or widespread.
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Post by LeoTzu » 2 years ago

Everyone just needs to chill. People are way too emotionally charged on the ban issues. Both sides have pretty reasonable points of view when you remove some of the incendiary remarks. Those who have promoted being patient and giving the format a minute to breathe have been met with just as much vitriol. The big problem with patience is that it's tough to measure that line of how much data is enough to make a move, but Hogaak has been in the format post-ban for just a few weeks. I don't anyone can really claim that we have sufficient data to conclude that post-ban Hogaak is busted, so most claims boil down to opinions.

Opinions are fine. Opinions can be right. Opinions can also be wrong. I just like to see the data that backs up an opinion before action is taken. Leyline of the Void is EVERYWHERE this weekend. It seems like prime grounds to see if the deck can be hated out in its current iteration. If it's still leading the pack… then it's probably time to rethink the bans.

On the subject of Faithless Looting, I think this one comes down to your personal vision of Modern. I've often pondered what a Looting-less format would look like. I think it would be slower and pretty darn cool, but WotC seems to be okay with graveyard shenanigans going on in Modern. They didn't even mention Looting in their last announcement, so you can call it broken if you want, but it doesn't seem to be by WotC's standards. That's just life in Modern right now. Trust me though, if you stop trying to put Modern in a box of "what I think the format should be" and start viewing Modern as it is, you'll enjoy the format more.

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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

Was in the middle of a long reply when the power went out. The quick TL;DR version from my phone is that Looting is absolutely a menace to the format. Its abundance is alarming, and it will lead to many decks continuing to get banned until it is dealt with itself.

As long as we're fine with some Looting deck needing to be banned every few months, then yeah, Looting is fine.
Last edited by cfusionpm 2 years ago, edited 2 times in total.

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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

Heh some weird flexing going on when all we have is Day 1 numbers, and a mixed record format. :D

Pro's by and large hate Modern. This is nothing new. At this point I just wish we had 1 thing.

Consistently applied Ban/Unban Logic. Want to let Looting/Stirrings live? Fine. Want to let TKS and Hogaak live? Fine.

There are cards that therefore need to be unbanned for a consistent application of rules and limits. So do it.
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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

2016: "A bunch of decks are ruining Modern, what do they all have in common? Probe? Ok. Ban Probe."

2019: "A bunch of decks are ruining Modern, what do they all have in common? Looting? Looting is fine. Whatcha gonna do. /shrug" :thinking:

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Post by Zorakkiller » 2 years ago

idk if id say that the pros hate modern but more that they just see it as a meme format for lack of a better word or something that they cant justify putting a bunch of effort into. this is actually great and gives us a better picture of the format as they are just gonna play whats pretty clearly the best decks and not fall into playing sub par pet decks.

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Post by Albegas » 2 years ago

cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
2016: "A bunch of decks are ruining Modern, what do they all have in common? Probe? Ok. Ban Probe."

2019: "A bunch of decks are ruining Modern, what do they all have in common? Looting? Looting is fine. Whatcha gonna do. /shrug" :thinking:
Probe was banned for enabling T3 kills, not meta prevalence. Meanwhile the only looting deck consistently winning before T3 after the GGT ban was Bridgevine (not sure about current iterations). Unless multiple looting decks start looking like T3 rule violators there's not much point comparing them to Probe

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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

Maybe it's just my follow list, but more Pros hold the format in disdain, than like it, from what I ever see.

I don't know, I'm not going to get bent out of shape over looting. I'm just not. I hate T3feri and TKS/Smasher and even small Karn, as designs, far more than looting.
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Post by Zorakkiller » 2 years ago

the turn 4 rule is incredibly arbitrary. phoenix, and hogaak can and do win before turn 4, we just dont know if they do it "too much" because wotc wont be forthright with the turn 4 rule leaving us to speculate or worse make inferences based on what they put into b and r updates

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

When ban talk around Hogaak Bridge came up, most people felt that Bridge from Below was enough. I told them that if Hogaak is legal, a turn 2 Hogaak is still very common and the percentages jump up quite a bit more for 2-3. An 8/8 Trampley boy on turn 2 may be too good and I think that at the Mythic Championship, it is proving so.

Now where are the people that disagreed with me that Hogaak, not Bridge from Below (or anything else), should be banned?

*Honestly I don't know why I ever quit Hogaak. (because I listen to others too much)
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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

I still wouldn't ban Hogaak. Just like banning KCI was an eye roll from me..
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 2 years ago

The problem with Modern is the insane amount of pressure. Dredge, Hogaak, Phoenix, Tron, Devoted Company, Neoform, Infect can all develop a boardstate on turn 2 that requires immediate attention or you lose the game. The turn 4 rule makes no sense to me when some decks are threatening checkmate on turn 2. Yes the game might drag on for a few more turns but what was the win% from turn 2 and upwards? What was the quality of the gameplay? Was there any meaningful decision making and player agency? What I want to say is that games are mostly decided by turn 2-3 but drag one for a few more turns without any reasonable expectations of a comeback. That makes a miserable gameplay experience and is the reason why I only attended 2 Modern events the past 6 months.

The problem is also that every deck requires a different answer which means if you are playing a reactive deck you need cheap, flexible cards that can answer every problem you face from turn 2 and upwards. The problem right now is that a lot of the times you have the wrong hatecards in your hand or need time to find the right ones. Also 1 answer is usually not enough if you can't follow up with pressure yourself or some kind of lock or draw into more hate. If you are playing vs Infect and you have a Rest in Peace in hand its almost a dead card. Answers are tradeoffs while pressure is ubiquitous. Threatening checkmate on turn 2 and let your opponent try to deal with the problem will always be better than trying to have the right specific hatecards at the right time.

You can either solve this by lowering the pressure thus banning cards like Loothing or go deeper into the powercreep funnel and print generic undercost answers.

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Post by robertleva » 2 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
2 years ago
cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
I was just repeating the testing and experience of someone extremely familiar with the deck. And the Pros seemed to have come to the same conclusion. Looking at what the deck does, what it is still capable of, and how resilient it can be, it seems like an extremely non-controversial opinion to hold that the deck is still very, very good. Whether or not it's still "too good" is the trickier question.

I also look forward to seeing if my other ridiculed opinion comes to fruition too (Phoenix remaining the best deck in Modern). Whether or not we have data to back up these assertions will become clear over the next few weeks. If only we had meaningful MTGO data... Though, prices of some cards could be a good indication (such as Finale of Promise, a key component for Aria Phoenix, jumping to nearly $50 online)
robertleva wrote:
2 years ago
Called it. Annnnnnd right behind hogaak we have ANOTHER deck abusing Faithless Looting. Im glad some of yall are eating your words, as for the rest of you, what is it going to take before you realize that Looting is too strong for this format?
These posts represent a broader trend that is problematic for Modern. It's probably problematic for Magic overall, as well as other discussions (politics, anyone?), but I'll stick with it in a Modern context. This is the problem of soundbites, Tweets, upvotes, "I told you so" points, and people being very concerned with hot takes and being "right". I have no issue with people making informed, evidence-based predictions about Modern or any other format. Predictions and forecasts are awesome tools which inform our understanding of the game. Unfortunately, that's not what we see in statements like "some of yall are eating your words" and highlighting the personal feeling of "I also look forward to seeing if my other ridiculed opinion comes to fruition too." I believe both of you are analytical and informed players who have put significant work into your understanding of Modern and its dynamics. That is also true of many pros. But too often, we see that experience reduced to this karma/upvote measuring contest that is about personalities and personal vindication, not collective format understanding.

Both I and others were never too worried about whether or not Hogaak/Phoenix/insert-hyped-deck-here would be broken. I am, however, deeply concerned with methodology. These kinds of "I told you so" narratives reduce counterpoints and dismiss evidence without presenting any evidence of their own. We need to make predictions based on data and evidence, presenting that supporting evidence with our arguments. Snap judgments, whether or not they end up being "right" in a single weekend's events, do nothing to advance our format understanding. This has been my main criticism of the Hogaak discussion from the beginning. Hogaak may be broken and may be bannable. Modern may have deeper problems. But the way to explore that is with deep analysis of the format and results, or just presenting evidence with our arguments. This is a good method that produces long-term accurate results and encourages constructive dialogue between players. It's not sweeping generalizations that sound good online but ultimately do not make for a compelling analysis method.
Oh come on now. Are you actually trying to say that in this day and age of quick snips and "headline truth" that we SHOULDN'T engage in the way that is currently the most effective method? When society dials it down a notch you can expect the forums to follow along. Until then you need to understand that the attacker sets the rules of engagement, you need to fight on their terms or fall. It's a sad truth, but it is the truth.
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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

I'm not sure I've seen an endorsement for 'race to the bottom' put like that before. :)

EDIT: In fact, I hope there is a /s tag missing somewhere.
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Post by Albegas » 2 years ago

Top 32 after 8 rounds of Mythic Championship by deck based on standings for those like me who haven't been watching the streams and are more interested in the decks than the players:
Spoiler
Show
1 - UW Control
2 - Hogaak
3 - Esper Control
4 - Izzet Phoenix
5 - Jund
6 - G Tron
7 - Hogaak
8 - G Tron
9 - G Tron
10 - Hogaak
11 - UrzaSword
12 - Humans
13 - Jund
14 - Hogaak
15 - Jund
16 - Hardened Scales
17 - UrzaSword
18 - Hogaak
19 - Izzet Phoenix
20 - Jund
21 - Humans
22 - Grishoalbrand
23 - Izzet Phoenix
24 - UrzaSword
25 - Humans
26 - Hogaak w/ Hollow One
27 - Hogaak
28 - Izzet Phoenix
29 - Hogaak
30 - Hogaak
31 - Jund
33 - Mardu Shadow
Vincent Leberge's deck doesn't seem to be listed, so I threw in Jacob Wilson's so there'd be a nice even 32 and my OCD would be satisfied

So we have 1 UW, 9 Hogaak, 4 Izzet Phoenix, 5 Jund, 3 G Tron, 3 UrzaSword, 3 humans, and 4 others. Not sure how meaningful this data is, I just really wanted to know what the top 32 after 8 rounds looked like

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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

Albegas wrote:
2 years ago
Top 32 after 8 rounds of Mythic Championship by deck based on standings for those like me who haven't been watching the streams and are more interested in the decks than the players:
Spoiler
Show
1 - UW Control
2 - Hogaak
3 - Esper Control
4 - Izzet Phoenix
5 - Jund
6 - G Tron
7 - Hogaak
8 - G Tron
9 - G Tron
10 - Hogaak
11 - UrzaSword
12 - Humans
13 - Jund
14 - Hogaak
15 - Jund
16 - Hardened Scales
17 - UrzaSword
18 - Hogaak
19 - Izzet Phoenix
20 - Jund
21 - Humans
22 - Grishoalbrand
23 - Izzet Phoenix
24 - UrzaSword
25 - Humans
26 - Hogaak w/ Hollow One
27 - Hogaak
28 - Izzet Phoenix
29 - Hogaak
30 - Hogaak
31 - Jund
33 - Mardu Shadow
Vincent Leberge's deck doesn't seem to be listed, so I threw in Jacob Wilson's so there'd be a nice even 32 and my OCD would be satisfied

So we have 1 UW, 9 Hogaak, 4 Izzet Phoenix, 5 Jund, 3 G Tron, 3 UrzaSword, 3 humans, and 4 others. Not sure how meaningful this data is, I just really wanted to know what the top 32 after 8 rounds looked like
Is there a posting that includes round by round standings, so Draft and Modern can be separated? Their website is all over the place and I can't find it for the life of me.

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