[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

User avatar
TheAnswer
Posts: 62
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by TheAnswer » 1 year ago

Tron has been sidelined because of the blistering speed of graveyard strategies, I expect to see it crop up more if Wizards loses all sense and bans Looting. If we just have Altar/Hogaak/Bridge banned, I expect to return to the pre-MH1 meta with Phoenix being a top deck. Not sure if UW will immediately be a top deck, as it will need to adjust to a new meta, but I think Humans could see an uptick.

User avatar
cfusionpm
With that on the stack...
Posts: 1109
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: California, USA
Contact:

Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

It seems the only times UW has been good were when formats were incredibly warped, because it can tune its narrow and selective answers for a predictable meta. Basically, Eldrazi Winter and now. The only other blip of activity was during the rush of new printings, culminating in Teferi, Hero of Dominaria. Will be interesting to see where it goes after something from Hogaak is banned. Will likely depend on any or all other actions. I have not personally liked the prison direction the deck has been trending to, and likely won't be sleeving it up again until I can play a bad version of it with Stoneforge. :party:

True-Name Nemesis
Posts: 156
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by True-Name Nemesis » 1 year ago

I think it's pretty hard for UW Control to drop off tier 1 considering the amount of quality cards they've been getting in recent months.

If anyone else is following:

Brussels Red Bull Untapped Qualifier II - Top 8
3 Hogaak
2 Jund
2 UW Control
1 Izzet Phoenix

SpeedGrapher
Posts: 13
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by SpeedGrapher » 1 year ago

This new editor will take a bit to get used to. I'll be fence sitting between websites as mtgsalvation isn't dead like we all thought it was going to be. Now as a for bans. Again they can't ban new cards. It's bad for business. The problem is free effects. Compare bridge from below to bitterblossom. Bridge costs no mana, and effect is free while bitter blossom costs 2 and one life per token. Also Arclight Phoenix is similarly free. It does require a bit more work. It's even easier to play than Chandra's Phoenix which costs R. I'd even argue that the force cycle of cards they printed was a mistake. You do need powerful cards to answer powerful problems but I don't really want to play legacy 2.0. From a game design stand point do they have a choice but to keep increasing the power level of cards until they stop for a bit.
Etali, Primal Storm is far more powerful value wise than any red card before it that I can think of from much older sets. Example Two-Headed Dragon. What they can do game space wise is turn out some of the same or similar cards in a tribal theme for a few years. Then tone down the power level then turn it back up a bit. I'm not really concerned. I'll move on to another deck. Currently playing elementals for fun. Which is part of that tribal design space I just talked about, Dinosaurs, vampires, merkfolk, they have done a lot of tribal cards recently. Vehicles being a new sub category. I think they probably should loop back to enchantment matters since enchantments and sorcery's are the weakest two card types in magic.
  • Creatures are top priority.
    Planeswalkers
    Instants
    Artifacts
    Lands
    Enchantments
    Sorcery's
A better solution than banning would be just to print more modal graveyard hate. In short if the effect is completely free, costing zero mana, and can generate a huge advantage quickly that's a bad thing. Fair cards are cards that cost something such as
Goblin Trashmaster. That costs 4 mana plus 1 dead goblin. Even value driven effects like Renegade Rallier are fair because they cost 3 and it doesn't bizarrely warp the game. In the same argument it's possible that people just don't like combo and like complaining about it. Having played against Eggs, Storm and Splinter Twin. I can say I've beaten all of those decks rather easily. Two of them were graveyard based decks. Not as good as the current decks going around but still once the combo started you probably lost. Are we really complaining about graveyard based decks or combo wins? Wizards is going to do whatever they want tomorrow. Probably based on the most vocal complainers. So tweet them enough and you will get what you want.

Also bring back land destruction. Sinkhole please. I'll also take GG destroy non-basic land. Or BB sacrifice a creature destroy target land. Or GG destroy target land that lands controller get a 0/8 Plant with reach and defender.

I do think this is more of a wizards banning more combo decks. Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis is by far the most consistent combo deck.
New modal graveyard hate.
B Choose one, exile target players graveyard, target player exiles one card from their hand of their choice, target creature get's -2-2 until end of turn.
W Choose one, Exile all graveyards, target player gains 3 life, put a 1/1 soldier token into play.

It's really easy to design one mana spells that exile graveyards in every color.
U/Blue Choose one, each play shuffles their graveyard into their library, draw one and discard one., target creature gains flying until end of turn.
GChoose one: Target player shuffles his graveyard into his library you may scry 1 for each creature card shuffled this way, regenerate target creature, search your library for a land card and put it into your hand.
RChoose one: Each player exiles their graveyard then loses 1 life for each card exiled this way, Target creature gains haste, Target land doesn't untap during it's controllers next untap step.

Green and blue don't traditionally exile graveyards but you can change those effects.
Last edited by SpeedGrapher 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
cfusionpm
With that on the stack...
Posts: 1109
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: California, USA
Contact:

Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
I think it's pretty hard for UW Control to drop off tier 1 considering the amount of quality cards they've been getting in recent months.
As mentioned, it just depends on how good its tools are against whatever Modern looks like after tomorrow. When you only really need to prepare for a narrow set of decks, you can tweak and tune UW to beat the meta. In an open field, the deck can struggle against a number of different archetypes and win conditions, depending on how it is built. Maybe the prison effects of T3feri and Narset are enough?
SpeedGrapher wrote:
1 year ago
A better solution than banning would be just to print more modal graveyard hate.
For reference, we already have multiple free GY hate cards (Surgical, Leyline, Trap, Tormod's Crypt) and several that could be played in any deck (all of the previous, plus Relic and Cage), some that could be played in anything but require a color for more benefit (Nihil Spellbomb, Bojuka Bog), and many that are color-restricted (RIP, Rakdos Charm, Extirpate, Scooze, Anafenza, Kalitas, and probably several others I may have missed).

Fact is, we don't have a shortage of GY hate. It's abundantly available in every color for free mana costs. The problem is that the GY-abusing threats are SO GOOD and SO RESILIENT that even the best, multiple layers of GY hate simply aren't good enough. When we get to that point, the only thing we can realistically do is either reduce the power of GY-abusing decks or accept that high-variance, battles of sideboard cards is where the format will be for the foreseeable future.

As I have said several times, I am extremely curious to read to accompanying paragraphs and explanations with tomorrow's announcement, regardless of what actions they choose to take (or not to take).

metalmusic_4
Posts: 260
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

The B&R decision has already been made before the results of today tournament. They probably have the announcement already typed up. I still stand by no new bans THIS ANNOUNCEMENT, hogaak has only been legal about 3 weeks and I expect them to give the meta more time than that to adjust. Next announcement all bets are off if the meta doesn't change.

True-Name Nemesis
Posts: 156
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by True-Name Nemesis » 1 year ago

And it's UW Control vs Jund in the finals! Against all odds.

User avatar
cfusionpm
With that on the stack...
Posts: 1109
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: California, USA
Contact:

Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
And it's UW Control vs Jund in the finals! Against all odds.
Wasn't this some random, small tournament, run with round-robin structure? I don't really know anything about this event other than a few murmurs on Twitter. Is this more like a GP? Or something else?

Edit: Found this online.
Tournament Format
226 slots per tournament
3 rounds of free-sealed Modern Horizons (pre-registered pools will be provided)
5 rounds of Modern
Top 8

So.... Meh, as far as any meaningful results. But absolutely GREAT to see this as a final round! Wish it mattered!

User avatar
TheAnswer
Posts: 62
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by TheAnswer » 1 year ago

Speaking of those finals, that faux pas in Game 2 was horrendous to watch. De Smet seems like he doesn't know how his cards work, and I can't believe the judge thought the gamestate was irreversible. Not that it would have ultimately mattered much (though I think next turn De Smet made 3 2 drops, so perhaps it would have mattered). Just really sad quality.

User avatar
CainMTG
Posts: 1
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by CainMTG » 1 year ago

Simto wrote:
1 year ago
In case of a "%$#% graveyard decks" banning tomorrow, which decks do you think will take the place at the top if there's no dominating Phoenix or Hogak decks around?

Humans? Control? Tron? Urza?
UW is the best deck, which is followed with jund, humans and tron being the next best decks.

Death's shadow is non-existent thanks to uw, which then in turn makes big mana decks viable as an option to combat jund and uw.

User avatar
TheAnswer
Posts: 62
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by TheAnswer » 1 year ago

CainMTG wrote:
1 year ago
UW is the best deck, which is followed with jund, humans and tron being the next best decks.

Death's shadow is non-existent thanks to uw, which then in turn makes big mana decks viable as an option to combat jund and uw.
The problem is, UW is only good in narrow metas where you can expect a certain kind of threat and prepare for it. We've seen that, in shake-up metas, control does not fare as well, simply because it isn't clear what will emerge as big players. I don't expect UW to be seeing huge success if we get a big shake-up tomorrow, at least not until the meta settles again.

User avatar
cfusionpm
With that on the stack...
Posts: 1109
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: California, USA
Contact:

Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

CainMTG wrote:
1 year ago
Death's shadow is non-existent thanks to uw, which then in turn makes big mana decks viable as an option to combat jund and uw.

I think GDS's struggles have less to do with UW, and more in general with the increase in GY hate. Specifically RIP/Leyline, which make casting Angler basically impossible, and Surgical tagging either Shadow or Angler, removing your only real win cons. The deck overall is a lot of air and 8 creatures. If those creatures are dealt with, the deck is just a lot of air.

BloodyRabbit
Posts: 143
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by BloodyRabbit » 1 year ago

GDS is, indeed, bad because it suffers the same hate of other graveyard decks while not doing anything too broken. UW has nothing to do with it, deck can easily deal with Control if you’re prepared to face them. You can’t beat Leyline or RIP most of the time, though.

User avatar
ktkenshinx
Posts: 571
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: West Coast
Contact:

Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Re: B&R timing
Based on a previous announcement and Twitter exchange, I believe we determined that Wizards makes these decisions approximately 1 week out from the announcement. I wish I could find that citation, but there are so many conversations I've participated in about this topic. Results from this weekend are unlikely to affect tomorrow's decisions.

Re: Banning predictions
The proximity of the MC makes this a tough one. Recent results are also not nearly as damning for Hogaak as some people would have us believe. It reminds me of Izzet Phoenix's initial zenith all over again. Or GDS when LSV infamously speculated on a ban. Either way, I think there's precedent for Wizards to do nothing until after the MC. After all, there was significant Tron and Izzet Phoenix fear going into the MC, neither of which really played out and neither of which led to ban decisions. Based on all this, I'd predict two possible scenarios:

1. No changes (most likely): I think Wizards will have Hogaak elements on a watchlist and see how the MC plays out, unless MTGO is significantly more infested with Hogaak than the Challenges/MCQ/MOCS results are indicating. If it is more infested than we can tell in public data...

2. Bridge from Below is banned: Wizards famously banned GGT without significant GP finishes, albeit over a longer timeframe than Hogaak cards, and it's possible MTGO could drive a ban decision on Hogaak. If that deck is an offender, I believe Bridge is the likeliest target. It has virtually no splash damage to other decks, is not part of a recent and cool new set, and is responsible for some of the more egregious starts in the deck. I can also see Wizards citing the lack of counterplay against this card, as it insulates against sweepers. I also think it accrues the most advantage relative to the least mana investment, which fits the theme of Wizards banning cards that cheat on mana.

3. Other Hogaak piece is banned: Maybe Wizards goes after Hogaak (similar to Bridge, especially mana cheating, although it is a new cool piece) or Altar/Vengevine/etc. instead. It's sometimes hard to predict what they will go after in the most broken decks with multiple broken pieces. Historically, Wizards hits mana accelerators or things that cheat on mana. Storm lost Song. Amulet Bloom lost Bloom. Eldrazi lost Eye. Fast decks lost Probe. KCI lost KCI. Bridge and Hogaak feel like the closest analog to those cards, so my money would be there.

I do not foresee a Looting ban at this time. Looting today is no more offensive than Stirrings was 8-12 months ago, and I don't think Wizards will push such a significant shakeup just before the MC. We know MC results are a major datapoint for Wizards, and we know they are trying to avoid pre-MC shakeup bans.

Re: Unban predictions
I truly have no idea. I believe bans are more predictable than people think. Unbans, however, seem much harder to predict, and there aren't clear precedents or citations about this process. I guess I'm "predicting" an SFM unban (i.e. no changes).
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010

User avatar
cfusionpm
With that on the stack...
Posts: 1109
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: California, USA
Contact:

Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

It will be a very sad day if they allow Hogaak to continue in the format unchanged. If that happens tomorrow... well, I've been cataloging large portions of my Modern collection in preparation to ship to TCG player. Seems as good a time as any to move on if this is what they consider acceptable and good for the format. I hope they do the right thing tomorrow.

User avatar
ktkenshinx
Posts: 571
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: West Coast
Contact:

Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
It will be a very sad day if they allow Hogaak to continue in the format unchanged. If that happens tomorrow... well, I've been cataloging large portions of my Modern collection in preparation to ship to TCG player. Seems as good a time as any to move on if this is what they consider acceptable and good for the format. I hope they do the right thing tomorrow.
I agree there is cause for concern. I disagree that doing nothing tomorrow necessarily signals that anything is "acceptable and good for the format." It might simply mean they want to wait for the MC to double check their theories. I would be much more worried if they posted a statement tomorrow saying "Modern is healthy so we made no changes" or something similar. But a "No changes" alone does not necessarily signal approval of the format.
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010

User avatar
Bearscape
Posts: 213
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by Bearscape » 1 year ago

If we get no changes today I think it would be a huge mistake, but an understandable one since it's been only a month since Horizons released.

I expect Hogaak numbers to vastly increase if it doesn't eat a ban, as many people would have been reluctant to buy in and learn a deck that is so high on the ban radar. With at least 3 more months in the sun that investment becomes more worth it.

User avatar
Simto
Posts: 252
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Copenhagen

Post by Simto » 1 year ago

@cfusionpm I would for sure wait with selling my cards until after the MC hehe.

I would love to see midrange decks have a better position. Midrange matchups are pretty much always the most fun matches to play and watch if you ask me.

I'm hoping to slowly buy into a Golgari and/or Sultai midrange style deck because they have some of my favourite cards, but it would suck buying lots of expensive cards only to get my ass handed to me constantly :)
My LGS' FNM is luckily pretty chill and "fair" which I'm pretty happy about, because I play Green and Eldrazi tron, but I don't have the big Karn, big Ugin or 4 Chalice hehe, but I still get alright results and have fun :)

JaayS
Posts: 3
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by JaayS » 1 year ago

Personally i expect things to change today, i obviously can't predict which changes will occur as wizards doesn't manage the banlist consistently so they essentially take actions at random, but, i feel like no changes/banning bridge would result in a terrible Pro Tour since it'd be just back to phoenix and dredge being at the top as they were before (making more than 30% of day 2 metagame share of a couple Gps combined)
I also believe this is the best chance to ban/unban stuff in a while since there are reasons/problems that call for action+incentives to do so before the MC. Fair decks have done well in the Red Bull tournaments because the narrower the format the better fair decks are because they can have the key hate cards to beat the few matchups they find rather than playing generic good answers to combat the wide spread of decks modern tends to have, this is nothing new and i really feel like people shouldn't take jund/uw/whatever fair deck winning as a sign of health.

User avatar
pierreb
Posts: 266
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Up North

Post by pierreb » 1 year ago

Given Hogaak recent performance, I expect no ban today.

Whatever you think, the fact the it placed 3 decks in the Untapped top 8 yet was handled by the other decks just fine fuels the impression that it is manageable. It all depend if you're on the bandwagon that having GY hate main is a problem or not. I think it's not a problem.

On that front, I'll Yogi Berra myself and say that graveyard decks need graveyards. Wizards prints cards that care and need the graveyard. Obviously, these cards need enablers or they'd be irrelevant. I think banning faithless looting would be an error, but I also think it would not matter all that much. GY stratagies have other cards they already run. All GY enablers would move up the ladder and the next best one would see play to replace the empty slot. Banning enabler can't work to contain a deck unless the alternatives are so much worse.

I've watched quite a few Hogaak games and they win even when they don't find one particular bit. It wins without altar, it wins without looting, it wins without neonate, it wins without vengevine, it wins without bridge. All because it finds the other pieces. They only need to ban one piece to notch it down, it doesn't really matter which one.

JaayS
Posts: 3
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by JaayS » 1 year ago

Yaaay bridge gone

User avatar
Albegas
Posts: 127
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by Albegas » 1 year ago

https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... 2019-07-08
For anyone who wants to save a Google search

Personally I appreciate the depth of the explanation on why Bridge needed to go and the comment about them wanting at least some Graveyard decks in the meta. I doubt that it means Faithless Looting will always have a free pass if it starts pulling ponder/preordain numbers, but I'd imagine that if they ever really start looking at it for a ban, we'd probably get some form of Careful Study soon afterwards.

JaayS
Posts: 3
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by JaayS » 1 year ago

The thing that's most surprising to me though is them not even mentioning neoform as a potential issue

User avatar
TheAnswer
Posts: 62
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by TheAnswer » 1 year ago

#CalledIt. All those explanations sound exactly like what we've been saying, though it's a little sad to not get any lipservice for potential unbans.

I'm especially happy they said that Bridge was the most likely card to cause imbalances in the format in the future.

bias
Posts: 3
Joined: 1 year ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by bias » 1 year ago

I guess pure MTGO data is now a reliable source for WOTC to determine bannings.

They also seem to be using the exact same language as the community, speaking of warping formats by requiring anti-graveyard hate cards.

Not sure how I feel about it but it doesn't feel in line with their past approach.

Post Reply Previous topicNext topic

Return to “Modern”