[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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drmarkb
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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Modern's issues stem from a few select decks giving degeneracy, which is why bans have been so prevalent.

Once everyone has access to degeneracy, things change. I once beat legacy ANT, in turns. That is right kiddies, in turns. A t2, t3 deck going to time. Why? The answer is because the degenerate storm deck is not too fond of Nethervoid and Trinisphere and Leylines and discard. Trouble is, those first two type of prison cards, even if printed, nearly always come down too late in Modern. In Legacy everyone has fast mana, most decks have tutors or pseudo tutors. When you get t2d you just accept it as part of the format, or maybe regret not Chalice-ing for 0 rather than the normal 1, you just feel it is fair because we all play ridiculous bombs and prison cards. In Modern there is this feeling that certain decks enjoy things not available to all, and it is not to do with colour pie, just how the chairs were arranged when the music stopped.
The best decks so often are dealt with by bannings because we don't have the cheap maindeckable prison pieces to stop their plan or because we don't get the fast mana to cheat them out.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
While there are indeed some very powerful cards (and cards that needed to be banned) in Modern Horizons 1, I personally feel that it was more a success than a failure, if only by a tiny bit.

Some cool cards were put into Modern - Unearth, Fact or Fiction, Yawgmoth, and more. Yes, some of those are incredibly low in power, compared with Hogaak and Urza. But this is where they need to improve. They should make more cards that are stronger and up to the power level of some of the top cards. What is the point of "not printing" Containment Priest or Leovold, Emissary of Trest when they printed much more broken cards? Why did they shy away from Counterspell? (Yes, I think Archmage's Charm is actually starting to see some solid play for versatility.) Why did they print a worse Preordain? I think if there's more thought given to a set like this, perhaps with former Magic the Gathering players, the set can definitely be a success.
I see no problems with Urza, it's a good/fun build around, and while it's very strong it's not too strong. I agree that Leovold should be brought into the format, as well as Containment Priest. Sanctum Prelate is another that I think should be added to the format. But, there's also limited slots and they were focusing mostly on new cards rather than old printings.

Actually, I think Sanctum Prelate could be one of the most important cards they could bring into the format.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

All I know, is that if you are playing what the masses call the best deck, you are bound to eat a ban. GDS was never close to dominate, it fails to itself. E-Tron, also was never 'best'.

Amulet could be.

I will never own a 'best deck' again.
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

GDS was not remotely CLOSE to warping like say...Phoenix, or Dredge. Wizards was banning the best deck until they hit the wrong one, Twin. After that, they let people just do as they please, until the outcry was too large, or they had clearly %$#% up.

They do ban clear best decks. They will again. Dont play them if you care about bans hitting your decks.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
I also remember cfusionpm, saying that DS is ultimately going to be banned.
Not sure what I said, or when I said it, but I can't imagine it was anything in at least the last 2-2.5 years. This is an aggregate of ALL Shadow decks since the Probe ban, in terms of GP Top 8s (wins marked with w):

2019: 0, 1w, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1w, 0
2018: 1w, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1
2017: 3w, 0, 2w, 1, 0, 2, 1

Other than the immediate aftermath of the Probe ban, and it STILL putting up nuts results, which should be exceedingly worrisome in of itself. But everything since mid 2017 has been lackluster to slightly-above-average. I would know as I've been playing it as my primary deck for several years.
Also, UR Phoenix did the same, and if MH2 had not happened the deck would still be legal, but Aria, Lava Dart, Hogaak and Altar had other plans for the deck.
Phoenix was handily putting up numbers that put Twin to shame, well before Horizons was printed.
GP Yokohama was in April 2019, Modern Horizons didn't release until June 2019.

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Post by Trazaeth » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Apparently Ad Nauseam has a Turn 2 kill now. Rare, but it can happen. And most frequently on Turn 3, I guess.
Turn 1 Simian Spirit Guide land, play pental prism, then turn 2 play land, angel's grace, name hogaak, Arisen Necropolis with spoils, then thassa's oracle and win right? With no Ad naus at all? Deck seems like it could be the real deal(like, Tier 1 or something?) This deck going tier 1 potentially should keep all the big mana down big time.

Also, of course, 4 Veil of summer in the sideboard.

Here is a typical, new list: https://www.streamdecker.com/deck/ucsQ8mg1
It's almost as if, cheap alternate win cons are easy to abuse. It's cool that it exists, but this is why better answers need to exist IMO. But even with Force of Will, the veils would just shift to the main deck.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Apparently Ad Nauseam has a Turn 2 kill now. Rare, but it can happen. And most frequently on Turn 3, I guess.
Turn 1 Simian Spirit Guide land, play pental prism, then turn 2 play land, angel's grace, name hogaak, Arisen Necropolis with spoils, then thassa's oracle and win right? With no Ad naus at all? Deck seems like it could be the real deal(like, Tier 1 or something?) This deck going tier 1 potentially should keep all the big mana down big time.

Also, of course 4 Veil of summer in the sideboard.

Here is a typical, new list: https://www.streamdecker.com/deck/ucsQ8mg1
I lost to that in Game 1 on Monday. Dude played Pentad Prism on turn 2, then turn 3 Angel's Grace, Spoils naming Oko, Thief of Crowns, and then Thassa's Oracle. I was fairly demoralized.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - MBA, UB Inverter
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Yawmoth Chord, Uroza
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by pierreb » 1 year ago

Why?

You just need chalice on 1. Why didn't you play it on 1? You have only yourself to blame for not having 4 chalice maindeck.

/sarcasm :)

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Post by Ym1r » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Apparently Ad Nauseam has a Turn 2 kill now. Rare, but it can happen. And most frequently on Turn 3, I guess.
Turn 1 Simian Spirit Guide land, play pental prism, then turn 2 play land, angel's grace, name hogaak, Arisen Necropolis with spoils, then thassa's oracle and win right? With no Ad naus at all? Deck seems like it could be the real deal(like, Tier 1 or something?) This deck going tier 1 potentially should keep all the big mana down big time.

Also, of course 4 Veil of summer in the sideboard.

Here is a typical, new list: https://www.streamdecker.com/deck/ucsQ8mg1
To be fair, what you are describing, if I count correctly is (at least on the play) a perfect 7/8. You almost need to have the exact hand otherwise it doesn't work which has a very low probability. Even on T3 on the play it is still 7/9.

On the draw there is quite a bit of room for disruption either via discard or counter. If you counter the spoils in that sequence you described they are almost empty handed. I mean, Ad Nauseum has been a contender for good combo decks for a while moving up and down the T1/T2 ladder. It never really is a bad deck, it just happens to fold to standard hate (i.e. discard/counter), which also makes it, imho, a fine deck to have in the format.
Counter, draw a card.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Phoenix was handily putting up numbers that put Twin to shame, well before Horizons was printed.
It was interesting to see all the logical knots people put themselves in to justify that deck not getting banned sooner, but hey.
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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
It was interesting to see all the logical knots people put themselves in to justify that deck not getting banned sooner, but hey.
Since I played the deck from its inception and for months afterwards, I posit that Dredge and Vengevine decks are what pushed counter strategiesto Phoenix decks out and since Phoenix had a great match up against linear creature heavy decks, it rose to the top.

Phoenix wasn't the top deck in a vacuum, unlike Eldrazi/Hogaak/Urza-Oko which were by far the best decks during their reign.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

I dont know, Phoenix should have been able to be handled considering the GY hate in the meta at the time. The fact it wasnt? It was a very scary deck.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Phoenix was handily putting up numbers that put Twin to shame, well before Horizons was printed.
It was interesting to see all the logical knots people put themselves in to justify that deck not getting banned sooner, but hey.
I disagree with that, and I agree with Tzoulis . Phoenix was a little bit inflated in the sense that it was a great metacall to win vs Dredge & Hogaak, in the same sense Twin was a little bit inflated, becuase it won vs Amulet Bloom in the end.
This does not address the fact that I pointed out already: Phoenix was putting up numbers better than Twin since the day it was printed, and surpassed Twin two months before Hogaak and Lavs Dart and Aria of Flame and all other MH cards were printed. This has been continuously overlooked, either on purpose, or people are actively misrepresenting the deck (wouldn't be the first time!).

Hogaak did not exist when it was Phoenix was overwhelmingly dominating GPs. And Dredge was just some other good deck that was doing pretty well. Vengevine builds were basically meme tier until Hogaak. I don't think people really remember how utterly dominant Phoenix was; continuing to put up bonkers numbers in the face of main deck Surgical Extraction and 4x SB Leylines, BEFORE MODERN HORIZONS WAS PRINTED.

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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago

I dont know, Phoenix should have been able to be handled considering the GY hate in the meta at the time. The fact it wasnt? It was a very scary deck.
You and @cfusionpm both missed my point. A single main deck surgical won't win you the game, like a main deck Timely won't win you the game against Burn. They had Thing and Ascension/Drake to complement the Phoenix plan. Having a good back up plan is what makes a good deck, saying that it didn't fold to RiP or Leyline is asinine. Are Vizier/Heliod combo decks ban worthy because Cage doesn't stone cold kills them?

The fact is, it lost to white based interaction and disruptive aggro like Humans and GDS were difficult match ups. Thing is that there weren't enough of those strategies BECAUSE of other GY based decks such as Dredge and Vine (with a smattering of Hollow One and Mardu Pyro) that didn't really care for such interaction.

That dynamic is what pushed Phoenix to the top above the rest, not raw power. It having good match ups against those strategies, those strategies pushing out its natural predators and a very god G1 proactive plan for random match ups is what pushed Phoenix to the very top. Sure it was powerful, but it wasn't more powerful than other T1 decks and it was cheap which boosted the numbers a bit.

When people started playing more Wx decks, namely Humans and UW Control, and more GDS my numbers suffered at my store.

Taking a solely results oriented approach, because of "feelings" about Twin -or any other deck- or in general is a recipe for disaster.
This does not address the fact that I pointed out already: Phoenix was putting up numbers better than Twin since the day it was printed, and surpassed Twin two months before Hogaak and Lavs Dart and Aria of Flame and all other MH cards were printed. This has been continuously overlooked, either on purpose, or people are actively misrepresenting the deck (wouldn't be the first time!).
I mean, it'd also help if you actually read and processed what was written, before attributing arguments to malice against your crusade about Twin.

So what if Phoenix put up results from early on? My argument didn't hinge on the existence of Hogaak or Twin or their GP Top 8s, rather it was based on the realities of the broader metagame that made Phoenix the best deck and pushed down its predators, which you cast aside because "Twin" somehow should be a factor in the discussion of why Phoenix put up those numbers.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Tzoulis wrote:
1 year ago
So what if Phoenix put up results from early on? My argument didn't hinge on the existence of Hogaak or Twin or their GP Top 8s, rather it was based on the realities of the broader metagame that made Phoenix the best deck and pushed down its predators, which you cast aside because "Twin" somehow should be a factor in the discussion of why Phoenix put up those numbers.
Because, Phoenix was already super dominant, and the best deck, and was resilient to hate, and was constantly being successful, even before it got numerous upgrades from Horizons, which gave the deck numerous upgrades. Following my actual train of comments (instead of interjecting), it's pretty easy to follow. Replying to comments about DS being banned --> replied with stats to counteract. Replying to comments about Phoenix likely being OK, if not for Horizons --> reply with Twin levels of dominance for Phoenix before Horizons. Insert whatever metric you need to justify a ban, but Twin is pretty much the bottom bar, and Phoenix handily passed it. Either way, this whole comment is pretty much ignored, and we pretend that Phoenix wasn't an overbearing dominant force, because we hear about its success being due to a meta call against decks that either weren't even tier 1 at the time, or simply didn't exist yet.

So say what you want, be as mad as you want. I will frequently come in here and give people a dose of reality when they continually change the past. Phoenix was putting up the numbers it was since day one, because it was extremely fast, explosive, robust, powerful, difficult to effectively disrupt, and by far the best thing you could be doing in Modern. It kept that crown until even more stupid busted broken things were printed in MH and ELD and overtook those top slots. It's not rocket surgery to figure out why Phoenix was good or why it did so well.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Wrong and wrong. Nobody is answering to your first comment, not because you are right, it's just that it's so tiring and all you do is speaking about Twin for 5 years. Your first post was also wrong, because Twin had those numbers, after being legal for ever. Phoenix was a new deck and the meta was coming out of a KCI unban in the beginning. The meta needed some weeks/months to adjust. Twin did not need this time. It was legal since the dawn of Modern. Instead, you forego all of those important factors just to push the Twin agenda. Well, nobody cares about Twin, and even if it comes back, there is veil and teferi to make it look just like another combo deck.
What other banned deck would you like to compare Phoenix to? Because, as I stated, the lowest bar for being banned is Twin. Would you like me to just say "it surpasses the lowest bar for being banned, based on all prior criteria" next time? Because that certainly was the case, and I had spent months saying that before it finally was banned.
About Phoenix being susceptible to hate, wrong again. Phoenix was lights out , when it was playing against BG decks, which could play push in your thing and remove your graveyard with a nihil spellbomb or from uw playing teferi/narset and RIP, because the plan A was gy dependant and the plan C (pyromancer's ascension) was graveyard dependant. Then, Aria of flame happened and then the deck became resilient to hate. It was MH fault that pushed the deck to the edge.
BGx decks were fairly bad until Wrenn and Six was printed. UW has been a poor choice to play for a long time, even with Tef/Narset. Sure, it beat up on Phoenix, then lost to nearly everything else. But sure, you can believe what you want to believe.
Also, UR Phoenix top 8's less and less during 2019. It was 3ple in the beggining, then double, then one, then zero, then one, something like that. Until Aria of flame.
Feel free to actually put in the leg work, actually collect the numbers, actually organize them, and then make a case for your argument (which is what I did).
I can not believe how many wrong and hyperbolic things I heard during the last two posts. If you were a dedicated UR Phoenix player, you would have known all of those things.
Shame, I only played it for more than 6 months straight, after I got sick of Shadow. I guess I'm not "dedicated" enough. Get off your high horse.
Wanting Twin back is fine. It's not going to happen, and neither it should, with Veil and Teferi legal. If you can't recognize that, you are biased. What you can do, is speak only about Twin or even if you speak about anything else, somewhat convert it, just so that Twin seems to be the solution.
I have my opinions, you have yours. None of them matter, because none of them have been tested in any significant or meaningful manner in a meta that has ever existed with all those cards legal. It certainly sounds like the same doomsaying people said about Jace or Stoneforge or all the other cards people were laughably wrong about. But honestly, I don't even give a sh*t anymore. The format has not been fun for a very long time, and it's not worth stressing over. Seems many agree, because those who still do play at my local store tell me that the numbers for Modern FNM drop by the week. It has even failed to fire recently.

And this is why I lurked without commenting, or commenting very sporadically for so long. Just not worth having conversations with people who don't care about reality, don't back up their claims with anything, but will argue to the death about their opinions. Just a waste of time overall, especially when nothing any of us say here actually matters. Go enjoy whatever bliss you get from Amulet Titan before it eats another ban. I'll kindly go back to the shadows; because continuing this discussion further just isn't worth it.

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Post by motleyslayer » 1 year ago

Bearscape wrote:
1 year ago
Even if Primeval Titan decks are probably the best decks right now, being the best deck doesn't mean the deck is broken. Although I do think that Modern looking fine right now also has a lot to do with there just not being much competitive interest in it; I feel that if a bunch of pros were tasked to design the best Modern deck, they'd come up with something that needs to be banned. Same for Legacy honestly.
I feel that lack of competitive interest in modern is a huge factor right now. Even a lot of the most diehard supporters I know stopped caring about the format a while ago.

The format is fine right now IMO but I feel the damage has been done

In regards to amulet decks though, I've heard people saying primeval titan was a mistake and should have been banned for at least the past 4 years. The deck has gotten a lot more toys since then but deck has always had the reputation as a hard to play deck. At least up until recently

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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

@cfusionpm Seriously, Twin's banning has absolutely no relevance to Phoenix's dominance, mostly because it was never specifically targeted. You say you come in here to deliver the truth (lol), but you keep comparing 2 completely different situations -and misrepresent the one- to again complain about Twin,

Phoenix's performance was a matter of the field it was up against, nothing more. It was a powerful deck that other decks stripped its natural predators, while preying the former.
BGx decks were fairly bad until Wrenn and Six was printed. UW has been a poor choice to play for a long time, even with Tef/Narset. Sure, it beat up on Phoenix, then lost to nearly everything else. But sure, you can believe what you want to believe.
That's straight up a lie that you've been espousing for at least 2 years. UW was great for a large part of the past 2 years, especially UW Miracles, it just couldn't handle Vengevine/Dredge.
Shame, I only played it for more than 6 months straight, after I got sick of Shadow. I guess I'm not "dedicated" enough. Get off your high horse.
Get off of yours maybe?

You've displayed that you don't understand why it was at the top despite playing it for 6 months. You've used it's Top 8 performance to show it had no predators, without considering the why.
I have my opinions, you have yours. None of them matter, because none of them have been tested in any significant or meaningful manner in a meta that has ever existed with all those cards legal.
Which is cute considering you follow with:
And this is why I lurked without commenting, or commenting very sporadically for so long. Just not worth having conversations with people who don't care about reality, don't back up their claims with anything
Somehow, only your opinions matter. Only you know the (real) truth. Any who say anything to contradict you, are ignorant and/or revisionists.

Seen perfectly here:
Either way, this whole comment is pretty much ignored, and we pretend that Phoenix wasn't an overbearing dominant force, because we hear about its success being due to a meta call against decks that either weren't even tier 1 at the time, or simply didn't exist yet.
You're the one ignoring metagame realities of the time to present Phoenix as unstoppable and with that distinction justify that the Twin banning was "unjust". Which again, ignores the fact that Phoenix wasn't
specifically
targeted. Top 8 performance is one part of the analysis and you keep ignoring the rest because it confirms your biases.

To which:
So say what you want, be as mad as you want. I will frequently come in here and give people a dose of reality when they continually change the past. Phoenix was putting up the numbers it was since day one, because it was extremely fast, explosive, robust, powerful, difficult to effectively disrupt, and by far the best thing you could be doing in Modern.
Is a perfect example of what I said above. I know best, you know %$#%.

In 4 lines you've described every T1 deck ever, demonstrated a lack of understanding of the deck's weaknesses and why there were no decks to exploit them and use its results as proof of what you're arguing without delving deeper.

So, as you said:
It's not rocket surgery to figure out why Phoenix was good or why it did so well.
Yet, you're doing a piss poor job of understanding the whys.

Something to go:
It kept that crown until even more stupid busted broken things were printed in MH and ELD and overtook those top slots.
Looting was banned in August 26th, while Eldraine came out October, 4th.
It also wasn't the best thing you could do before Modern Horizons. It was one of the best. Popularity =/= Power level, but that doesn't help your narrative, does it?

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Post by Simto » 1 year ago

Can't we all just get along?

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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
You said UR Phoenix was susceptible to hate, before MH, yet RIP literally hurt the deck in a significant way, until Aria of flame + Lava dart happened(which were MH cards)
Something more on this. Based on CFB's numbers, Phoenix had around 52-56% win ratio (with 56% being an outlier) which is normal fora T1 deck and it's match up matrix showed up what I've been saying: It SUCKED against UW Control, Tron and Burn.

So, how the hell was Phoenix this unstoppable force when it posted T1 numbers AND it had clear weaknesses?
Simto wrote:
1 year ago
Can't we all just get along?
I mean, we can, but don't expect me not to point out hypocrisy. My post have generally been pretty non-aggressive, but not against some kinds of posts or posters.

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Post by pierreb » 1 year ago

Thank you so much. I never understood the high hate for UR Phoenix. It was good, but not dominant until aria of flame showed up. It's a theme of 2019: it gave many decks cards that made them better. (More consistent, more powerful, or new alternate lines.)

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Post by Bearscape » 1 year ago

Damn way to put the work in gkourou

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Post by Ed06288 » 1 year ago

I just read the last 2 pages, and I still feel like pod and twin were in a grey area. My tolerance for strong decks is high, and a lot of their top 8 appearances were just a single deck. This was probably in a diverse top 8 too but that's just a guess.

The game is largely played by high schoolers and college students and frequently banning $1000 decks doesn't seem practical. The format was advertised as being some sort of a new eternal format and people expect decks to stick around. I do flip-flop a lot on twin and pod but I still think their bannings were questionable.

As for the titan decks, I think it's clear that the new dryad and once upon a time put it over the top. I really don't want to see the titan banned.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

motleyslayer wrote:
1 year ago
I feel that lack of competitive interest in modern is a huge factor right now. Even a lot of the most diehard supporters I know stopped caring about the format a while ago.
Want to know what my issue is right now? I can't find a deck. I can go on MTGTop8 and look at lists that have done well, but MTGS is dead for deck discussion as is this forum. I can't actually easily find a bunch of threads talking about various decks and how they've done in the current meta from the people playing those decks, see what people think, and cards they've discussed. The closest I can get to that, is trying to find Discord channels for 500 different decks, many of which might be more obscure, then joining every single one of those, and scrolling back through months worth of chat to try and catch up.

It's basically impossible. And it's making it really, really hard to decide what I want to play. I haven't even bothered to put a deck together since the Oko banning. I have a UW control deck in my deck box and I've played that, and paid so little attention to it that it's apparently 59 cards because I took one out for something and I didn't realize or care.

I want to play Modern, but there's literally no where left to even research what I want to play.

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Post by Ed06288 » 1 year ago

Just pick a deck list from a recent paper or online tournament that you think is fun to play. Play with it in small tournaments and tweak it each time to your desired liking.

In some ways, I feel modern is in a sweet spot. Prices are more affordable, and the uh... culture has become a bit more casual. The finance guys and pro players are gone at the local level.
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