[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

th33l3x
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Post by th33l3x » 1 year ago

Ym1r wrote:
1 year ago
Lear_the_cat wrote:
1 year ago
Theese bans are almost as "No changes". Wizards didn't change anything in general, keeping Urza, Big mana and other combo decks playing around in tier1-2. Looks like no way I will ever return to this format.
RIP Modern. Hello Pioneer.

Oko, as per statement, was by far the most played card. Now decks won't have to splash for it or be damned. That is a huge metagame change.
Not strictly true. Oko showed up in most maindecks, but Veil of Summer was and will continue to be the most played modern card across the 75, and that is just ridiculous.

Where Oko was having a homogenizing effect in that every deck that could splashed or built around it, I think the impact Veil of Summer is having on the format is at least as large and unhealthy, in that the card singlehandedly makes a ton of cards, even whole strategies, unplayable. Entire decks just fold to a 1cmc instant. Leaving Veil be is just a blatant %$#%, and I'm fed up with people sugar coating that as "they want to see where the format goes first bla bla bla". Veil being broken and unhealthy is obvious to everybody, to players both running and facing it as well as WotC, and yet, unbelievably, it stayed, and nobody has a good answer why. My honest opinion is that somebody in charge of regulating bans/unbans in modern has clear preferences concerning archetype/color pie.

Sure the bans will have a significant impact, but if i have a patient with 2 obvious, curable deseases, I don't just ignore one of them. I just don't get that.
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Tomatotime
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Post by Tomatotime » 1 year ago

Well they banned more than I honestly thought they would, I didn't think they would have the spine to get rid of Opal but they showed they got some guts at least, this is one fewer monkey the format will have riding its back until the end of time which is a load off on some level. At this point the biggest thing Wotc needs to hit is Tron, obviously the lattice ban marginally hurts Tron ever so slightly, but at some point what Tron does will simply limit future design space for colorless cards in the same way the Pod limited future design space for cheap creatures with ETBs, at some point Tron will have to be beheaded and that will be a great day indeed, I just hope it doesn't take Wotc forever to actually do it.

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Post by Tomatotime » 1 year ago

Also let me point out probably the most critical piece of the B&R:

"While the primary motivation for this last change is the unfun play pattern, we also intend for this to be a small but meaningful balance change to Eldrazi and other Tron decks. We feel this is warranted based on the popularity and strength of those decks in the metagame."

This means that Wotc has now fully acknowledged that fun is now a primary bannable metric, this is a very good thing and I hope they hold to this and apply it accross the format as liberally as possible. Good bye Tron, no one will miss you, and people will piss on your grave.

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Post by Ym1r » 1 year ago

th33l3x wrote:
1 year ago
Ym1r wrote:
1 year ago
Lear_the_cat wrote:
1 year ago
Theese bans are almost as "No changes". Wizards didn't change anything in general, keeping Urza, Big mana and other combo decks playing around in tier1-2. Looks like no way I will ever return to this format.
RIP Modern. Hello Pioneer.
Oko, as per statement, was by far the most played card. Now decks won't have to splash for it or be damned. That is a huge metagame change.
Not strictly true. Oko showed up in most maindecks, but Veil of Summer was and will continue to be the most played modern card across the 75, and that is just ridiculous.
Unless you have some other source of data than WOTC, it is strictly true that Oko was the most played card in Modern. I am not saying that Veil was not ridiculously played, but it was not played as much as Oko, that's just data. It also stands to reason, since Veil is more often than not a 2-off in SBs, while Oko appears either as 4-off on MBs as well as some SBs.

th33l3x wrote:
1 year ago
Where Oko was having a homogenizing effect in that every deck that could splashed or built around it, I think the impact Veil of Summer is having on the format is at least as large and unhealthy, in that the card singlehandedly makes a ton of cards, even whole strategies, unplayable. Entire decks just fold to a 1cmc instant. Leaving Veil be is just a blatant %$#%, and I'm fed up with people sugar coating that as "they want to see where the format goes first bla bla bla". Veil being broken and unhealthy is obvious to everybody, to players both running and facing it as well as WotC, and yet, unbelievably, it stayed, and nobody has a good answer why. My honest opinion is that somebody in charge of regulating bans/unbans in modern has clear preferences concerning archetype/color pie.
That being said, I am heavily in favor of a Veil ban. I have said so in the past and will continue saying it (see my previous post on what I would ban).
Counter, draw a card.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Tomatotime wrote:
1 year ago
"While the primary motivation for this last change is the unfun play pattern, we also intend for this to be a small but meaningful balance change to Eldrazi and other Tron decks. We feel this is warranted based on the popularity and strength of those decks in the metagame."
Not the first time, but I think this is a dangerous road to go down. They are offering up the potential to erase the identity of the format, and again, for what? So we can play some older cards?

I'm fine with this approach in Pioneer, as it does not have an identity, but I'm a fan of DECKS. Modern itself, is meaningless. Without Jund, Affinity, Tron, Twin, Pod, Burn, Storm...is it even Modern?
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Post by Lear_the_cat » 1 year ago

Ym1r wrote:
1 year ago
Say what you want, but these changes will have impact. Will it be the desired or will it be enough? We have to see, and you can argue about it, but you can't argue that they will have no impact.
I didn't say that it will have no impact. I said that it will be meanenless and overall it won't be change anything in it's core. Same decks will prevail but in some different proportions.
Ym1r wrote:
1 year ago
I think this is just an absurd take. I mean, not being fully satisfied with the bans is one thing, but saying that it is "almost as no changes" is just uninformed. We have been discussing for literally YEARS about Mox Opal going, and now that it is we say "it's as if nothing changed"? Something HAS changed, the fact that artifact decks are now significantly less powerful, decks that have been ranging from Tier 1 to dominating (from Lantern, to KCI to Urza). You can't say it's almost no changes.
Okay, Affinity and Lantern were dead subjectively but now objectively. This you call "changes"?
idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
I dont believe this ban set improves Modern dramatically, it just changes what is busted.
Agreed. One current busted deck exchange another.
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Tomatotime
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Post by Tomatotime » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
Not the first time, but I think this is a dangerous road to go down. They are offering up the potential to erase the identity of the format, and again, for what? So we can play some older cards?

I'm fine with this approach in Pioneer, as it does not have an identity, but I'm a fan of DECKS. Modern itself, is meaningless. Without Jund, Affinity, Tron, Twin, Pod, Burn, Storm...is it even Modern?
If the identity of Modern is miserable decks, than it isn't worth surviving in the first place, no one wants a forced march through hell when this is how they are spending their leisure time. Also there is no need for Wotc to make certain decks sacred cows, on some level this is how things have gotten this bad in Modern already, it is better that Wotc be able to recognize rotten pillars when they exist and cull them for the greater good. After all, the format identity will simply be whatever is the best in said format, it doesn't really matter what those specific decks are so long as we have archetype diversity and less polarized matchups.

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Post by ModernDefector » 1 year ago

Ym1r wrote:
1 year ago
ModernDefector wrote:
1 year ago
What's everyone's predictions for future bannings in the shltshow that is Modren?

Mine: Within six months, Opal and Urza banned. Within a year, Ancient Stirrings and/or Once Upon a Time banned.
Yeeeeah that's completely unrealistic and completely unjustified. For one, they would never go for 4 bans within a year, and especially not without an unban. There needs to be time to prove that these cards are busted, none of which has proven it yet, and then time for the metagame to settle again so this would never happen.

I have no idea why modern is a %$#%. Modern is actually great right now, a ton of diversity, and I feel like we are looking for scapegoats to keep the banmania flowing. This time it's the Urza decks. Heck, they didn't even have 6 months of play time, and there haven't been any major tournaments won by them, relax. This is similar to the rise of Grixs Death's Shadow, people for whatever reason were losing their mind over it and not it's just an acceptable player. The same was true for Lantern control, people thought that it was by and far the best deck that people didn't play, until nobody plays it any more. Heck, even Tron at times has been considered a prime ban target, especially when the new Karn was spoiled, but the Karn-Lattice combo hasn't broken anything yet.

So why not just chill with the banmania for a bit and see how things play out? There is literally a TON of things you can profitably be doing now in modern. Even a new Grixis control deck has been on the rise with multiple 5-0s and some good tournament showings. Calling modern a %$#% is just miles away from reality.
Only 1/4 of the way through the year and we're already 3/4 of the way to the thing that will "never" happen lmao (and has happened multiple times before, btw)

Solid metagame analysis and foresight. It's amazing how much lack of wisdom is spewed.

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Post by pierreb » 1 year ago

My take on the non-ban is that Wizards:
  • Tried to save face by not banning 6-7 cards in one go.
  • Is mostly data-driven as their ban explanation constantly mention MTGO and GP.
I think they will continue to watch and then "discover" that:
  • Veil and OuaT are the most-played cards and are too prevalent and skew the metagame.
  • Urza is still too good in particular and snow strategy helped too much by astrolabe.
I predict these three will be the next to go.

As for the "fun" criteria, let's be real. Their fun threshold for the ban was a two-cards combo (one of which is tutored by the other) that prevents the other player from casting any spell and using any ability for the rest of the game. It's not like they counted too many frowny faces. The bar is set way high.

Edit: they may also "discover" that Tron is now too prevalent a cut a piece from it.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Tomatotime wrote:
1 year ago
If the identity of Modern is miserable decks, than it isn't worth surviving in the first place, no one wants a forced march through hell when this is how they are spending their leisure time. Also there is no need for Wotc to make certain decks sacred cows, on some level this is how things have gotten this bad in Modern already, it is better that Wotc be able to recognize rotten pillars when they exist and cull them for the greater good. After all, the format identity will simply be whatever is the best in said format, it doesn't really matter what those specific decks are so long as we have archetype diversity and less polarized matchups.
If Jund, Burn, Affinity, Storm, Elves, Pod, Twin, Tron was miserable, then yes, Modern was miserable and you should never have invested in it in the first place.

2015 Modern was the best format this game has had in the last decade, easily.
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

pierreb wrote:
1 year ago
My take on the non-ban is that Wizards:
  • Tried to save face by not banning 6-7 cards in one go.
  • Is mostly data-driven as their ban explanation constantly mention MTGO and GP.
I think they will continue to watch and then "discover" that:
  • Veil and OuaT are the most-played cards and are too prevalent and skew the metagame.
  • Urza is still too good in particular and snow strategy helped too much by astrolabe.
I predict these three will be the next to go.

As for the "fun" criteria, let's be real. Their fun threshold for the ban was a two-cards combo (one of which is tutored by the other) that prevents the other player from casting any spell and using any ability for the rest of the game. It's not like they counted too many frowny faces. The bar is set way high.

Edit: they may also "discover" that Tron is now too prevalent a cut a piece from it.
This is exactly what I believe will happen in the upcoming weeks. There is no meaningful counterplay possible vs Amulet and other green combo (Devoted Druid, Infect) as long as Veil exists. Also black is completely pushed out of Modern. This one is just too obvious to just not ban it straight away.

I firmly believe at this moment it isn't fun to be working at R&D. They are completely aware they screwed up last year and they have probably been kicked by their overseers multiple times by now. Confidence must be at an all time low so with upcoming sets I believe they will play it very safe and thus be risk averse. Not screwing up again is their company goal now.

Its not if but when in the next few weeks and it means we got 9 cards banned in Modern in 6 months. That is ridiculous and states the complete failure of 2019 and Modern in general. They will have some serious explaining to do. These bans are imminent and unavoidable and they are just praying for a miracle in the hope the metagame can adjust itself.

9 cards banned in 6 months means there are fundamental issues with Modern that can't be fixed with bans alone. The talks about a reboot must start now. This summer some sort of reboot will take place. They could do a soft reboot by releasing a small set of cards 'Modern Horizons 2' with mostly specific reprints from previous sets to introduce into Modern to make it more robust.

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Post by Shmanka » 1 year ago

Well it finally happened, the banning I've clamoured for on forums for years.
Mox Opal is finally done. Coming from a long standing affinity player - thank god Wizards finally did something correct.

The truth is, with Mox Opal being banned, we can finally look towards Simian Spirit Guide as the only remaining offender of the mana mechanic left in Modern, and that cards days are also definitely numbered.

These bannings open up tons of new potential unbannings, such as the original Artifact Lands from Mirrodin, Krark-Clan Ironworks(because whether you understand or not, it cannot infinite combo without Mox Opal), and dare I say Green Sun's Zenith.

The Modern Banned list should be as minimal as possible - whatever criteria you decide that should be, if you contain some type of philosophy where you don't enjoy playing against a card such as Astrolabe, or Veil yet they are not oppressive in any sense to the fundamental mechanics of the game; I urge you to redirect your philosophy of game balance and design.

This is the best announcement they have made since the unbanning of BBE and JTMS, the next few months will allow Wizards to take more informed decisions as to what they should unban, I strongly urge any fervent Modern aficionado to purchase their playsets of Artifact lands now. They are by far the most innocent cards on the banned list and do not have the evil history you see people who didn't even have a DCI in the era have some opinion of.

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Post by Tomatotime » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
f Jund, Burn, Affinity, Storm, Elves, Pod, Twin, Tron was miserable, then yes, Modern was miserable and you should never have invested in it in the first place.

2015 Modern was the best format this game has had in the last decade, easily.
I never said Jund was miserable, I never said Elves was miserable, I never said Pod was miserable.

Don't take my statements to mean that if something is a format pillar than it is by default guilty, it is not. But the pillars have been given a lot of time for us as a community to try to draw a consensus of whether they are a net positive or negative on the format, we are not obligated to simply say they are positives and cannot be touched, we have the ability to redraw the borders of Modern as it suits the playerbase.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Tomatotime wrote:
1 year ago
Don't take my statements to mean that if something is a format pillar than it is by default guilty, it is not. But the pillars have been given a lot of time for us as a community to try to draw a consensus of whether they are a net positive or negative on the format, we are not obligated to simply say they are positives and cannot be touched, we have the ability to redraw the borders of Modern as it suits the playerbase.
That's nonsense to me. If Twin had not been banned, and the other pillars I mentioned were still relevant, they should remain as such. Regardless of the wishes of an ever changing playerbase.

Thats the point of a non-rotation format. You keep the deck you love, and play it if it remains competitive.
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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

I am not on board with lattice ban. There is nothing wrong with lattice\karn when it costs 4 and 6 mana. The problem is with Tron, and I would rather they nerfed tron. I mean mindslaver lock is allowed, I have died to it and it is harder to disrupt. Karn lattice is an issue when someone has seven mana t3. That is the issue, there will always be broken stuff to do with 7 mana on t3. I would rather Tron go and keep lattice. In the same fashion, Urza would perhaps have been a better ban, Emry too.


I understand Oko, I just am sad that they won't print real walker hate. There are some real dullards with data in hand who think that players hate being told no, hate the stack, and just want to do their stuff. What their precious data fails to tell them is that such types also hate losing to walkers, and leave the game anyway only to periodically return. When a tournament vet goes, they go for good, and it is those players who tend to draft even if they don't casually buy boosters.

Opal was coming, perhaps they should have taken the step to remove spirit guide, amulet, tron etc. and say that the only way decks get extra mana is by playing green ramp.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
I understand Oko, I just am sad that they won't print real walker hate. There are some real dullards with data in hand who think that players hate being told no, hate the stack, and just want to do their stuff. What their precious data fails to tell them is that such types also hate losing to walkers, and leave the game anyway only to periodically return. When a tournament vet goes, they go for good, and it is those players who tend to draft even if they don't casually buy boosters.
Yep. I firmly believe that its the 'casual hardcore' the types that actually read what pro's say, that waste hours here and on discord, or twitter, that are the lifeblood of any game.

When that segment dries up, the game normally takes a header into some rocks for a bit.
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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

I'm fine with this approach in Pioneer, as it does not have an identity, but I'm a fan of DECKS. Modern itself, is meaningless. Without Jund, Affinity, Tron, Twin, Pod, Burn, Storm...is it even Modern?
Sure. Decks aren't immortal. Though I do find it amusing that all of the original top decks now are gone due to being overpowered, except Tron. Yet, decks are stronger than ever.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

It is funny, but I disagree that decks are not immortal. If they remain competitive enough, then that should be the ideal. Get your deck, tweak it, but it remains.
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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
It is funny, but I disagree that decks are not immortal. If they remain competitive enough, then that should be the ideal. Get your deck, tweak it, but it remains.
Sure, but metas change. Good cards move from deck to deck, but that doesn't mean the deck itself is going to be immortal. An example would be Tempered Steel, which did exist when Modern started. Eventually it just went to Affinity, Affinity itself didn't even run any cards with Affinity anymore... so was it really still the same deck?

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Post by Archanz » 1 year ago

Never wrote something but a fiery reader. For me this ban mania Is and Will Always be the true cancer of Modern. There Will Always be a top deck. There Will Always be a deck that eveyone hates. Modern had the oportunity to create a rotation through meta. It had the opportunity to play the deck you loved. They Just needed to let the metà adapt and print specific answers and policy cards. Only the oppressive cards needed to stay on the banlist.

But to me, Modern now has no identity. They banned some cards in some format defining decks that killed them, and were not needed. Not needed because decks even more powerfull than those appeared eveeywhere, and they didnt last three months to let the meta find answers.

To me bye bye Modern, its been a nice ride. Sad It was wasted by general hysteria

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Post by Trazaeth » 1 year ago

Happy about the set of bans. Could have been a few more, however, I really was looking for some unbans.

Sadly, it's not the time yet for unbans.

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Post by th33l3x » 1 year ago

Archanz wrote:
1 year ago
Never wrote something but a fiery reader. For me this ban mania Is and Will Always be the true cancer of Modern. There Will Always be a top deck. There Will Always be a deck that eveyone hates. Modern had the oportunity to create a rotation through meta. It had the opportunity to play the deck you loved. They Just needed to let the metà adapt and print specific answers and policy cards. Only the oppressive cards needed to stay on the banlist.

But to me, Modern now has no identity. They banned some cards in some format defining decks that killed them, and were not needed. Not needed because decks even more powerfull than those appeared eveeywhere, and they didnt last three months to let the meta find answers.

To me bye bye Modern, its been a nice ride. Sad It was wasted by general hysteria
Nope. There's a clear difference between general hysteria and general consensus that a card is too good. Mox Opal has been an obvious ban candidate for a looong time, it was just waiting for the one card to push it over the edge, enter Urza/Emry.
And a big part of Oko being banned was the cards surrounding it. Sure Oko can be answerd relatively cleanly, e.g. by Dreadbore or similar. But being on-color with the best protection spells out there (Veil of Summer, Mystical Dispute, Metallic Rebuke) made it close to unkillable. That means outside of WotC printing very good pw-hate, there is no reason to expect modern could have reigned in Oko.

Again, Oko was banned based on concensus and rational argument, not hysteria. Back when it was spoiled, a ton of people went from "this is pretty good" to "this is overpowered" to "it'll get a ban" in a matter of days. It's not rocket science with a card that obviously powerful and versatile. And the stats proved them right.
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Post by Tomatotime » 1 year ago

Archanz wrote:
1 year ago
Never wrote something but a fiery reader. For me this ban mania Is and Will Always be the true cancer of Modern. There Will Always be a top deck. There Will Always be a deck that eveyone hates. Modern had the oportunity to create a rotation through meta. It had the opportunity to play the deck you loved. They Just needed to let the metà adapt and print specific answers and policy cards. Only the oppressive cards needed to stay on the banlist.

But to me, Modern now has no identity. They banned some cards in some format defining decks that killed them, and were not needed. Not needed because decks even more powerfull than those appeared eveeywhere, and they didnt last three months to let the meta find answers.

To me bye bye Modern, its been a nice ride. Sad It was wasted by general hysteria
Lol okay dude, this is a bit much dont you think?

But I'll bite, please explain which entire decks have been killed off by Lattice being banned?
Which entire decks have been killed off by Oko being banned? Obviously Opal is the big one, but really, can we actually say that all artifact based decks are officially dead because Opal is gone? You realize people were playing Urza lists initially without Opals or Oko's, also in terms of affinity, time will tell, I remmeber when Top got banned in Legacy people declared that counterbalance and miracles could never be played again, and yet here they still are, a tier 1 deck, really the player base is filled with chicken littles when it comes to bans, they think that everything is just dead because a couple of broken cards got banned. Please chill.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
I am certain Modern will become a lot more interactive and better from now on. They just need to ban Veil at some time.
???

If you consider Amulet interactive, I guess.
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Post by Archanz » 1 year ago

Sorry, i didnt mean the latest bans. Maybe Opal was right, like pod was right. But as a whole, its the ban strategy that doesnt work, or doesnt fit my feelings for the format.

For me the right time before ban (except for emergency bans like eldrazi) are 4 to 6 months. In those months you can see different decks changing the metà, and if each new set coming out that time has policy cards that answers the top decks, the metà changes without ban intervention.

This Is my personal opinioni, but since 2015 weve never been able ti see It because of the many bans.

PS: they killed twin, jund (After bbe and shaman), pod (99% was too food, but i would have give It more time). Now affinity Is dead, and Tron Will follow. Other combo decks died but ok. No identity for an eternal format for me = overkill.

Then maybe its Just me and my local situation, but atm Modern Is at its lowest. The cancer deck is banned, long Life the next cancer deck.

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