[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

Lear_the_cat
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Post by Lear_the_cat » 1 year ago

I think the best way to revive Modern will be a way to ban powerkreeps so R'n'D will have better design space to print interesting cards.
Urza, High Lord Artificer - you already see what this man does and there's no way to stop him or hate.
Oko, Thief of Crowns; Wrenn & 6; Teferi, Time reveler; Karn, the Great Creator: theese are huge design mistakes and should be banned untill format will get maindeckable and cheap answers for planeswalkers. They should be banned because they denies opponent to use his advantages in specific game zones and leads to linear games with verry few desicions. Some of planeswalkers just killed another archetypes: for example Karn TCG killed Affinity.
Mox Opal - as most noticed it's a card with high chance to be broken and I don't think it's a right way to keep it in format with Emry and Jeskai Ascendancy around.
Primeval Titan - it reduces space to design interesting lands and land strategies. Titanshift will soon get new eidolon to do T3 kills and Amulet Titan is already busted with a lot of tools being printed for it. Without it land strategies can find another way to evolve and bloom. (maybe even unban Summer Bloom)
Bloodghast - I think it's main reason why Dredge always become broken. This card is like Mox opal or SSG: 0 mana enabler with no downside in such strategy. This card should go if ppl want dredge to be alive and competitve deck but not broken each time.
If all theese bans will happen then, probably, some bans will be in question:
Veil of Summer - this card will be needed to keep in check blue strategies to be dominant with Tron decks.
Tron Lands - the most questionable ban but I think it deserves it bcs most colorless interesting powerfull cards or enablers become broken bcs of "free" mana engine. and with Veil around it will be a bit too strong. Even if we ban it - we will have Gx Eldrazi deck to keep BGx and Ux decks in check.

Without it I don't think Modern will deserve to be saved anymore. It should go, it should die as Legacy. We will have more balanced Pioneer.

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idSurge
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Lear_the_cat wrote:
1 year ago
Veil of Summer - this card will be needed to keep in check blue strategies to be dominant with Tron decks.
One of the biggest mistakes of 2019, and thats saying something. Veil dies tomorrow.
UR Control UR

Lear_the_cat
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Post by Lear_the_cat » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
Lear_the_cat wrote:
1 year ago
Veil of Summer - this card will be needed to keep in check blue strategies to be dominant with Tron decks.
One of the biggest mistakes of 2019, and thats saying something. Veil dies tomorrow.
Yeah, probably, but it's not that strong when treats are not that great. That's why I think planeswalkers are a bigger problem.

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idSurge
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

I would not blink if they deleted 2019 from the game. It will rotate out of Standard, so whatever but these cards have RUINED everything else.

Well, maybe Commander is fine. Reminds me, why dont I just play Commander...anyway.

The Walkers should all be banned, but Veil cannot remain if we want to pretend Modern is 'interactive.'
UR Control UR

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drmarkb
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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Ed06288 wrote:
1 year ago
lol @ foodchaingoblins, it's probably gonna be a short ban/unban list tomorrow anyway.
Based on my faith in WOTC, here's what I expect to happen tomorrow:

Oko banned, nothing else banned, no unbans. No meaningful text update about the format.

PROVE ME WRONG, WOTC!

As a side note, I don't know why anyone is clamoring for these tame cantrips to be unbanned. The reason it is so silly that they are banned is specifically because they are so ludicrously weak by comparison to so many other things. And unbanning them would do very little to change anything for any deck. Like... the London Mulligan combined with the average turn length of the format makes cards like Preordain wholly irrelevant. It would be a complete waste of an apology unban.
drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
Twin or Pod gets unbanned and I am out. If either does, it has been fun guys and girls. Enjoy your format.
I can think of at least a dozen decks off the top of my head, that currently that exist today, that are all considerably worse, less fun, and more awful to play against than either of these. But you do you.
I am expecting worse decks to be hit in some way, unlesss you mean tron in that lot, and if they are I will say the same about them. No unbans of previously banned build around cards please, and that includes looting. Once it has gone, it is gone. I don't want to play a format that is shaken up by bans followed by unbans of the same stuff. A slippery slope.

metalmusic_4
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

Man, final predictions are MUCH more varied than normal. Also, I still don't see any price movement on potential unbans. This announcement, outside of oko, is a virtual wild card it seems.

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Bearscape
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Post by Bearscape » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
motleyslayer wrote:
1 year ago
I'd be fine with a twin unban but 3 mana teferi makes the combo so much harder to interact with
So, Turn 1: Serum. Turn 2, Remand something, Turn 3, T3feri, maybe bounce something, T4, do nothing, then flash in tapper, T5 Twin?
I mean... I guess? Tapping out for Tef is a hard sell in a format that does some pretty bonkers stuff on, or by turn 3.
People have been talking about 3+ bans + twin/pod unban, and I've been thinking about Jeskai Twin a lot lately. I do think that Twin with Tef3 and FoN might be too much in a good Modern. In current, miserable Modern it would hardly register on the obnoxious scale (and probably just be Temur or 4c Twin), but without Oko and Veil, Jeskai Twin seems very powerful and tough to interact with. Of course, the real answer to that is that Tef3 should just also be banned, but I don't really see that happening on top of the must-bans we currently face.

iTaLenTZ
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

Final prediction

Bans: Oko, Veil, Mox Opal, Lattice
No unbans yet because their priority is to fix 2019's design mistakes that have ruined Modern

Reasoning: Oko and Veil don't need explanation any more, Lattice to stop the Karn TGC locks. Mox Opal because its been mentioned before by them that they won't give it a pass indefinitely, they don't want to nuke the Urza archetype and give it another chance (since the card is also still in packs), traditional affinity is dead anyway, Mox Opal being the card to most likely be the core of another broken deck in the future like it has been in the past.

I still believe at least 2 pieces of the Urza core need to go. Mox Opal really isn't enough because the deck can function perfectly without it like it has proven in previous iterations and still be the best deck by miles. Astrolabe should go because it is fundamentally breaking the snow mechanic and the colour pie, Emry should go because of its ridiculous synergy with 0 mana artifacts and CA it creates. I really hope they at least ban Astrolabe as well.


Mtgthewary
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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

it went well??? It destroyed modern

metalmusic_4
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
it went well??? It destroyed modern
***It made MONEY! LOTS OF MONEY!***

I expect they will do MH2 but it will be far less powerful than MH1.

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robertleva
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Post by robertleva » 1 year ago

[mention]ktkenshinx[/mention] RE Hot takes from pros:

Again, your analysis is correct, but your conclusions are, a little too quaint I guess is the best way to put it. There is no secret "deeper discussion" taking place by these so-called pros. What you see is what you get. You have correctly identified that the pro's opinions are basically no different from random posters on this forum. Pros are essentially walking talking trending decks. When was the last time you saw a pro invent a successful new deck?

You lament missed opportunities of these Pros. You think that because WOTC listens to them, that their takes should be thoughtful and should reflect that level of responsibility. You are a good guy my friend, but those are the values of a world that has been obsoleted by tweets and social media. I too long for those days, I doubt we will live to see their return.
Robert Leva
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Aazadan
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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

robertleva wrote:
1 year ago
ktkenshinx RE Hot takes from pros:

Again, your analysis is correct, but your conclusions are, a little too quaint I guess is the best way to put it. There is no secret "deeper discussion" taking place by these so-called pros. What you see is what you get. You have correctly identified that the pro's opinions are basically no different from random posters on this forum. Pros are essentially walking talking trending decks. When was the last time you saw a pro invent a successful new deck?

You lament missed opportunities of these Pros. You think that because WOTC listens to them, that their takes should be thoughtful and should reflect that level of responsibility. You are a good guy my friend, but those are the values of a world that has been obsoleted by tweets and social media. I too long for those days, I doubt we will live to see their return.
The pro community used to be among the top 0.1% of players. That's no longer true. Todays pros are in the top 10% with marketable personalities. This isn't a bad thing, it's the first time any sort of sustainable paycheck has been available for people playing Magic, But, it does mean that their opinions aren't what they used to be.

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ktkenshinx
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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

robertleva wrote:
1 year ago
ktkenshinx RE Hot takes from pros:

Again, your analysis is correct, but your conclusions are, a little too quaint I guess is the best way to put it. There is no secret "deeper discussion" taking place by these so-called pros. What you see is what you get. You have correctly identified that the pro's opinions are basically no different from random posters on this forum. Pros are essentially walking talking trending decks. When was the last time you saw a pro invent a successful new deck?

You lament missed opportunities of these Pros. You think that because WOTC listens to them, that their takes should be thoughtful and should reflect that level of responsibility. You are a good guy my friend, but those are the values of a world that has been obsoleted by tweets and social media. I too long for those days, I doubt we will live to see their return.
Nothing about this is wrong, and I agree there is no deeper discussion going on among pros (unless they are trying to break formats before major events). It's a depressing situation that isn't just hurting Magic or Modern.

Re: B&R update today
Here's my final prediction for today with super rough likelihoods:

Virtually guaranteed ban: Oko
This extremely busted planeswalker has flattened format diversity in multiple areas, invalidating one of Modern's biggest draws. The insane number of decks splashing for Oko just to have a valid, grindy gameplan (e.g. Ponza, Infect, Kethis Combo at the GP, etc.) underscores that this is the best thing you can be doing in Modern right now. Modern is a better format when there is no clear best thing to do, and Wizards tends to bring the hammer down on those best things. Oko is a virtually guaranteed ban in the same spirit as Hogaak, but nothing is certain:
Oko: 90%

Extremely likely ban: one or more pieces from the Urza deck (Urza, Opal, and/or Astrolabe likeliest - Emry/Bauble possible)
Urza had comparable MWP to Hogaak during Hogaak Summer, and Urza variants have continued to post the best MWP since then. Urza with Oko is offensively broken and I and others have been describing it as the secretly, not-so-secretly best deck for months. If you were playing anything else except maybe Amulet, you were willfully playing a worse deck. Wizards banned Looting after Hogaak to ensure the format didn't slide back into Looting being the de facto best thing. I expect they will do the same with Urza. Picking the exact Urza piece is trickier. Banning Urza himself completely stops the problem at its source but leaves potential problems in Opal and Astrolabe. An Opal ban allows Urza to function as a grindy deck without the obscene T2-T3 lines, but then you risk Urza being the best interactive engine even sans Opal. Astrolabe is an interesting case because it actually empowers a variety of decks, not just Urza strategies, but it may fit the DRS model of doing too much at too many stages of the game. Emry/Bauble are also contenders here for related reasons, either because they lead to insurmountable early board states or they secretly provide too much advantage ala Probe. It's a tough decision for Wizards. I think the SUPER ROUGH order of likeliest bans is as follows, but the margins are close:
Urza: 35%
Opal: 30%
Astrolabe: 25%
Bauble: 10%
Emry: 5%

Plausible bans: Veil and OUaT
These egregious 2019 design mistakes create two problems. Veil makes it even harder in Modern to meaningfully interact with and react to proactive strategies. This gets rid of some of Modern's best policing spells, like Force of Negation and TS/IoK, which opens the format to the massive influx of green-based strategies we're seeing in the top-tier. This disproportionately benefits players who are protecting powerful plays, not regulating the format. OUaT is a consistency tool in a format where Wizards has banned three of the best consistency tools. Unlike Stirrings, which Wizards claims (wrongly) has "limitations" about colorless cards, OUaT has none as all decks run lands and all green decks in Modern run creatures. OUaT is actually an acceptable power level in Modern IF and only if Wizards unbans a blue cantrip like Preordain to keep pace. If they don't OUaT needs to go.
Veil: 51%
OUaT: 49%

Possible ban: Lattice
Tron variants are excellent decks without the random oops-I-win element of Lattice that can win in a single turn with zero counterplay if they have enough mana. You can get rid of Lattice without hurting the core identity of either E Tron or G Tron, preserving the cool Karn toolbox. Karn isn't actually a horrible card and I really like his static Stony Silence as a maindeckable policing force for artifact decks. The toolbox element also helps regulate niche strategies with specific vulnerabilities. Lattice, however, is an older card that has no applications outside of Karn's wombo combo. I'd love to see this banned to flatten Tron's power level a bit, but it's probably not a Wizards priority:
Lattice: 35%

I'd still love Wizards to explore nerf bans across top decks, hitting pieces like Creeping Chill, T3feri, Force of Vigor, and others, but I'd put the likelihood of all that under 10% or even 5% at this point.

As for unbans, I don't know how to predict those. I fully believe bans are predictable based on known metagame qualities. Unbans, however, are a black box.

I'm working all day so I'll check in at random breaks and see you all after the dust has settled!!
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010

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Ed06288
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Post by Ed06288 » 1 year ago

so what, is there no ban announcement today?

metalmusic_4
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

Announcement in less than an hour if they stick to the normal announcement time.

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cfusionpm
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Ed06288 wrote:
1 year ago
so what, is there no ban announcement today?
They seem to pop up between 730 and 8am PST. It's currently 7:20, so feels like any minute. I'll have to check back after period 1. :shhh:

True-Name Nemesis
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Post by True-Name Nemesis » 1 year ago

Mox Oko and Lattice are gone

https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... ement?asdf

Edit:
Over the last several weeks, base blue-green decks using Urza, Lord High Artificer have risen to the top of competitive Modern, earning the most 5-0 trophies in Magic Online league play and maintaining a non-mirror match win percentage of more than 55%. These decks also have a winning matchup against nine of the other ten most popular competitive decks, indicating an inability of the metagame to adjust on its own.
I knew E-tron and GDS supposedly preying on Urza was BS.
As a source of fast mana in the early game, Mox Opal has long contributed to strategies that seek to end the game quickly and suddenly, whether with explosive attacks, one-turn win combos, or by locking out the opponent with "prison" elements. While none of these decks previously warranted a ban of Mox Opal, it has historically been a part of decks that approached problematic impact on the metagame or did indeed necessitate other bans. As the strongest enabler in the recent Urza artifact decks, and a card that has been concerning in the past and would likely cause balance issues in the future, Mox Opal is banned in Modern.
Reasoning for Opal ban was also something most posters considered at some point. So I'm not actually that surprised by it.
Last edited by True-Name Nemesis 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Tzoulis
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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

Leaving Veil and banning Mox is a Mistake. Now all artifact decks will be Urza decks by default, so there goes the diversity of the macro archetype.

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Post by th33l3x » 1 year ago

Not a peep about Veil of Summer. Very surprised that they didn't just not ban it, but didn't even mention it as a problematic card...

Y'all think it would be ok to unban Ironworks now?

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LeoTzu
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Post by LeoTzu » 1 year ago

https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... ment?etyuj

Oko, Mox Opal, and Mycosynth Lattice are gone.

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Bearscape
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Post by Bearscape » 1 year ago

Alright, that trifecta of bans makes me want to go to Modern FNM again at least. Veil of Summer still has to go though. and Astrolabe as well probably.

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Mikefon
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Post by Mikefon » 1 year ago

th33l3x wrote:
1 year ago
Not a peep about Veil of Summer. Very surprised that they didn't just not ban it, but didn't even mention it as a problematic card...

Y'all think it would be ok to unban Ironworks now?
Why unban a card that has already proven itself toxic? No thank you...

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

Like I sayed here, start with mox. I am happy wotc see this like me, even amalgam kept saying to me I have no clue about this deck... Another right prediction. If urza is still to strong, ban him too

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

I can get behind these bans. Lattice was dumb, oko was OP, and mox was a repeated offender (similar to FL). I really would have liked some unbans though.

Moving forward tron is completely playable, titan is still very playable, urza is greatly weakened. Mox is a big loss for several decks that use It but it needed to go long ago. I didn't think they would ever ban it due to price.

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