[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

Aazadan
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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

th33l3x wrote:
1 year ago
anybody know at what time they'll do the announcement? or is it all hush hush from here on out?
Not really sure yet. They used to announce bans at 12:00 PST, then they moved it to the morning update of the website at 9:00 PST, but Pioneer bans have happened later in the day, around I think 5 PST (not sure exactly, but it was definitely after the daily update).

If I had to guess, I would say announcements will be at the usual 9 AM pacific time, since they haven't said they were going to change the time.

Especially with ban updates now being sporadic instead of at a fixed interval where we know we would be getting either something or a no changes announcement, I think they'll look to be very consistent on the time, so that if noon hits on Monday and there isn't an update, people know there won't be one until the following week at the earliest.

[mention]ktkenshinx[/mention]
ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
I totally agree with you that Wizards has encouraged this type of behavior. I also agree with your edit: the overall state of Magic communication (communication generally?) has moved away from long-form discussion and debate to soundbites and hot takes. It's a bad state of affairs. Although I'd like to see this change for all areas of Magic, I'd settle for just Modern-specific changes right now. Players should hold their content creators to higher standards, as well as holding their own contributions to a higher standard. This would increase our understanding of the format, lead to richer, deeper conversation, and create a more welcoming environment for a struggling format. I don't think this is going to happen without some serious work by all parties, but it's one of many things that needs to change about the current state of Modern if we want to recover from the last year.
I am so cynical of Wizards right now, and their desire to hide information from players that I'm completely willing to buy into a conspiracy theory that they've actively curated fracturing the community specifically to prevent players from effectively communicating with each other and understanding a format.

It's my opinion that players and WotC are currently in an information war. Wizards wants to prevent information from reaching players because they can't make formats new and exciting at a rate faster than players can solve them anymore, and this goes double for non rotating formats. On the other hand, players crave the stability that solved metas bring because they can effectively sideboard, tune, and buy certain cards with confidence. Every time players figure out a new way to extract information, Wizards finds a new way to clamp down on things.

The latest breakthrough here was the self reporting of matches using DCI numbers and published pairings information. It was a brilliant way to circumvent Wizards no longer providing meaningful statistics at GP's and appeared as a direct response to Wizards clamping down on automated event reporting that sites like mtgtop8 were doing. Which itself was a response to Wizards curating decklists to show variety instead of reflect the metagame. I suspect they will eventually find a way to shut down the self reported GP info (maybe an app that sends each participant a text with their table and opponent, rather than make full match pairings available to all).

Communication is a problem, especially between players, but I think Wizards actively doesn't want that communication. I know they maintain a Reddit presence, but in my time working on MMO's I know first hand what game companies think of official and unofficial forums. And they do not think well of them... they would prefer players not communicate for a variety of reasons. On the other hand, they definitely love what magicTCG is now, which is 99% arts and crafts of their game.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Amalgam wrote:
1 year ago
Why on earth is the CFB showing draft instead of Modern? Are they just going to switch to top 8 instead of showing full day 2 stream?
The top 8 for this modern GP probably carries the most weight when it comes to any bans/unbans tomorrow
Its not particularly complicated.





See ya Oko.
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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

Oh Jund making is nice to see. But I think this cements Oko ban plus something from the Urza deck at the bare minimum. At same time I can't see wizards banning more than 3 cards in one go

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

Amalgam, you kept talking to me 2 months (or longer) about urza as a fair deck and only strong. You talked even to me how mtgo adapt and this will go on... You talked about shadow which will keep them in check... You talked about bad scg meta without any meaning... You want to say something now about this deck? It's by the way same deck you defendet, nothing changed. Why, this is a real question without sarcasm, you told this to us for so long? Why we need to destroy so many tournaments and confidence to modern if this was long time ago clear and busted? Was it worth for some weeks more you can play it?

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

Amalgam wrote:
1 year ago
Oh Jund making is nice to see. But I think this cements Oko ban plus something from the Urza deck at the bare minimum. At same time I can't see wizards banning more than 3 cards in one go
I see Oko, Veil, and if they have any level of insight, Astrolabe. I still think Oko could be ok without Astrolabe but ok or not, I think it adds very few positives to the format and with the current feelings towards the card it should just be nuked from orbit. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of each of these sets (Teferi, Mystic Sanctuary, Emry) and (Karn, Lattice), also taken out.

If it's only two bans, I think an unban is unlikely. The chance going up as more gets banned. If we see 5 bans, I think an unban is guaranteed, which I suspect would be either Green Sun's Zenith (helped by the fact that it has trouble being run alongside OUaT) or Punishing Fire. Punishing Fire because it's an easy include in any future set (they try to reprint a card approximately 1 year after an unban meaning they likely identify an unban a year in advance when possible), or GSZ because it was recently reprinted and neither have mechanical overhead. Of the two, I think Punishing Fire is more likely because it supports a grind, and has no similar cards currently, while cards have largely grown beyond falling to a 2 damage burn spell. It also has many safety valves in place with all the GY hate available.

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
Amalgam, you kept talking to me 2 months (or longer) about urza as a fair deck and only strong. You talked even to me how mtgo adapt and this will go on... You talked about shadow which will keep them in check... You talked about bad scg meta without any meaning... You want to say something now about this deck? It's by the way same deck you defendet, nothing changed. Why, this is a real question without sarcasm, you told this to us for so long? Why we need to destroy so many tournaments and confidence to modern if this was long time ago clear and busted? Was it worth for some weeks more you can play it?
Because unlike you I can actually look at real data and form an opinion based on results. The meta has now changed in a way where it is no longer healthy and as such something must change as the format is fully solved. This doesn't mean Urza is the only issue, 7/8 of these decks run Oko and Veil and every single deck is green.
All you have done is parroted 'Ban Opal' without even understanding how the deck works and even basing it off older versions of the decks that weren't even relevant. Now can we have an actual civil discussion without your needless trolling and spamming

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Post by motleyslayer » 1 year ago

I hope the top 8s from both the SCG and the GP this weekend finally push WotC to ban either Urza or Oko at the bare minimum whenever the next update is

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Amalgam wrote:
1 year ago
Oh Jund making is nice to see. But I think this cements Oko ban plus something from the Urza deck at the bare minimum. At same time I can't see wizards banning more than 3 cards in one go
As I wrote on Reddit, the Jund pilot also made T8 with zero byes. That's an impressive feat for any GP, let alone when he's running a no-Oko Jund in an Oko world.

As for bans, Oko is a guaranteed ban at this point. Another guaranteed ban is something from Urza by a similar rationale to Wizards banning Looting; they don't want the format to just revert to Urza decks after Oko is gone. That ban will either be Urza, Opal, or Astrolabe in an unknown order of likelihood. Beyond those two bans, I also imagine we'll see a Veil and/or OUaT ban, just to carry through the momentum of banning all of those awful cards in various formats. That brings us to 3-4 bans tomorrow and I doubt Wizards will pull the trigger on more. Unbans are impossible to predict so although I hope for an unban, I'd be unsurprised if we didn't see one.
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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago
Amalgam wrote:
1 year ago
Oh Jund making is nice to see. But I think this cements Oko ban plus something from the Urza deck at the bare minimum. At same time I can't see wizards banning more than 3 cards in one go
I see Oko, Veil, and if they have any level of insight, Astrolabe. I still think Oko could be ok without Astrolabe but ok or not, I think it adds very few positives to the format and with the current feelings towards the card it should just be nuked from orbit. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of each of these sets (Teferi, Mystic Sanctuary, Emry) and (Karn, Lattice), also taken out.

If it's only two bans, I think an unban is unlikely. The chance going up as more gets banned. If we see 5 bans, I think an unban is guaranteed, which I suspect would be either Green Sun's Zenith (helped by the fact that it has trouble being run alongside OUaT) or Punishing Fire. Punishing Fire because it's an easy include in any future set (they try to reprint a card approximately 1 year after an unban meaning they likely identify an unban a year in advance when possible), or GSZ because it was recently reprinted and neither have mechanical overhead. Of the two, I think Punishing Fire is more likely because it supports a grind, and has no similar cards currently, while cards have largely grown beyond falling to a 2 damage burn spell. It also has many safety valves in place with all the GY hate available.
Well I hope this is the case I don't think they have banned 5 or more things at a time since the original Mirrodin block. I'm most scared wizards just bans Oko and calls it a day which is honestly a real possibility.
I really think we need to collectively push on wizards more on more than one platform

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Post by motleyslayer » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Amalgam wrote:
1 year ago
Oh Jund making is nice to see. But I think this cements Oko ban plus something from the Urza deck at the bare minimum. At same time I can't see wizards banning more than 3 cards in one go
As I wrote on Reddit, the Jund pilot also made T8 with zero byes. That's an impressive feat for any GP, let alone when he's running a no-Oko Jund in an Oko world.

As for bans, Oko is a guaranteed ban at this point. Another guaranteed ban is something from Urza by a similar rationale to Wizards banning Looting; they don't want the format to just revert to Urza decks after Oko is gone. That ban will either be Urza, Opal, or Astrolabe in an unknown order of likelihood. Beyond those two bans, I also imagine we'll see a Veil and/or OUaT ban, just to carry through the momentum of banning all of those awful cards in various formats. That brings us to 3-4 bans tomorrow and I doubt Wizards will pull the trigger on more. Unbans are impossible to predict so although I hope for an unban, I'd be unsurprised if we didn't see one.
after seeing them ban looting not long ago, I can see them finally having enough with mox opal and getting rid of it from modern. I can't see them making more than 3 bans but I don't know what needs to be done to make modern interesting again

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

Amalgam wrote:
1 year ago
Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
Amalgam, you kept talking to me 2 months (or longer) about urza as a fair deck and only strong. You talked even to me how mtgo adapt and this will go on... You talked about shadow which will keep them in check... You talked about bad scg meta without any meaning... You want to say something now about this deck? It's by the way same deck you defendet, nothing changed. Why, this is a real question without sarcasm, you told this to us for so long? Why we need to destroy so many tournaments and confidence to modern if this was long time ago clear and busted? Was it worth for some weeks more you can play it?
Because unlike you I can actually look at real data and form an opinion based on results. The meta has now changed in a way where it is no longer healthy and as such something must change as the format is fully solved. This doesn't mean Urza is the only issue, 7/8 of these decks run Oko and Veil and every single deck is green.
All you have done is parroted 'Ban Opal' without even understanding how the deck works and even basing it off older versions of the decks that weren't even relevant. Now can we have an actual civil discussion without your needless trolling and spamming
I am trolling, I don't understand, I can't look at real data, I am spamming.....nice words one more time, I hope you get warnings too like me. But it's really strange if I am still on same opinion and you needed to change yours, because you can't defend your opinion anymore without loosing your face here. Please faster next time and not after 100% of rest of world Mr. Expert
Last edited by Mtgthewary 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

motleyslayer wrote:
1 year ago
ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Amalgam wrote:
1 year ago
Oh Jund making is nice to see. But I think this cements Oko ban plus something from the Urza deck at the bare minimum. At same time I can't see wizards banning more than 3 cards in one go
As I wrote on Reddit, the Jund pilot also made T8 with zero byes. That's an impressive feat for any GP, let alone when he's running a no-Oko Jund in an Oko world.

As for bans, Oko is a guaranteed ban at this point. Another guaranteed ban is something from Urza by a similar rationale to Wizards banning Looting; they don't want the format to just revert to Urza decks after Oko is gone. That ban will either be Urza, Opal, or Astrolabe in an unknown order of likelihood. Beyond those two bans, I also imagine we'll see a Veil and/or OUaT ban, just to carry through the momentum of banning all of those awful cards in various formats. That brings us to 3-4 bans tomorrow and I doubt Wizards will pull the trigger on more. Unbans are impossible to predict so although I hope for an unban, I'd be unsurprised if we didn't see one.
after seeing them ban looting not long ago, I can see them finally having enough with mox opal and getting rid of it from modern. I can't see them making more than 3 bans but I don't know what needs to be done to make modern interesting again
finally more and more people seems to understand what we need to do. Thanks for your posting. I hope wotc realize it tomorrow and comes to the same conclusions

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Post by motleyslayer » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
motleyslayer wrote:
1 year ago
ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago

As I wrote on Reddit, the Jund pilot also made T8 with zero byes. That's an impressive feat for any GP, let alone when he's running a no-Oko Jund in an Oko world.

As for bans, Oko is a guaranteed ban at this point. Another guaranteed ban is something from Urza by a similar rationale to Wizards banning Looting; they don't want the format to just revert to Urza decks after Oko is gone. That ban will either be Urza, Opal, or Astrolabe in an unknown order of likelihood. Beyond those two bans, I also imagine we'll see a Veil and/or OUaT ban, just to carry through the momentum of banning all of those awful cards in various formats. That brings us to 3-4 bans tomorrow and I doubt Wizards will pull the trigger on more. Unbans are impossible to predict so although I hope for an unban, I'd be unsurprised if we didn't see one.
after seeing them ban looting not long ago, I can see them finally having enough with mox opal and getting rid of it from modern. I can't see them making more than 3 bans but I don't know what needs to be done to make modern interesting again
finally more and more people seems to understand what we need to do. Thanks for your posting. I hope wotc realize it tomorrow and comes to the same conclusions
it actually took me a while to get sick of opal (mostly since it was only really played in affinity and lantern decks for the longest time, I even let opal pass in kci) but I think that enough is enough for me at this point. There's just so many Urza decks now that I'd hoping for an opal ban. There's just so much stuff that it enable off of making extra mana just off having little artifacts around

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

I remain unconvinced that Opal is the issue.

Oko + Veil are absolutely needing to go.
Astrolabe SHOULD go.
Urza himself, should probably go, but if they hit 3 cards, I dont know if a big ticket like Urza is hit too.
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Post by motleyslayer » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
I remain unconvinced that Opal is the issue.

Oko + Veil are absolutely needing to go.
Astrolabe SHOULD go.
Urza himself, should probably go, but if they hit 3 cards, I dont know if a big ticket like Urza is hit too.
I feel that they need to probably ban 2+ cards (3 might be the right umber). Depending on what they ban, I can see them leaving opal

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

Idsurge, today I saw again so many turn 1 emrys into turn 2 urzas only because of this mox. They flooded boardstates in first 2 rounds and won games easy after, even it get another 16 turns to realize for their opponents

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
Idsurge, today I saw again so many turn 1 emrys into turn 2 urzas only because of this mox. They flooded boardstates in first 2 rounds and won games easy after, even it get another 16 turns to realize for their opponents
I would prefer the following.

1. Oko, Veil.
2. Astrolabe, Emry.

At that point, I believe Urza would be ok.
gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
There is exactly 0% Mox Opal does not get banned tomorrow, plus Oko. It produces crazy mana, it's got too many tools to play around with, it's just too much, and warping modern in a disgusting way.

People believing it will stay legal, should re-think about it. Or wait until tomorrow.

If Opal does not get banned, people will still flood all the boards until turn 2. This is a problem, with no solution, other than to ban silly 0-cmc and 1-cmc artifacts, like Astrolabe and Bauble, which would be hilarious.
Astrolabe is not a healthy card.
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Post by motleyslayer » 1 year ago

astrolab is an insane card too but I don't know if it's as bad as opal.

I'd be fine with a twin unban but 3 mana teferi makes the combo so much harder to interact with

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

Titan managed to take it out the GP in the end. This deck really has come a long way with field and OUAT printings within the last year. Wonder where it ends up in a changed meta post banning with it losing access to Oko(hopefully).
Also does this Yawgmoth deck from SCG have legs? It managed to get a top 4 result and saw a few of them on camera as well

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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

If you want to keep artifact decks in any way relevant in Modern then Opal must stay. That they keep printing cards like Urza or Astrolabe or Emry that homogenize and/or break artifact decks doesn't mean that Opal is to blame.

I'd still like to see a "probation" period like Pioneer, where they ban something tomorrow (I'd go with Oko and Veil) and state that they'll monitor the format and issue ban updates bi-weekly or something to rein in potential outliers.

On the Astrolabe discussion, I'm ambivalent on whether it should go or not. On the one hand it color fixes effortlessly and enables 3-5 color mana bases without fear of Blood Moon or Field of Ruin and on the other hand it produced cool decks like Bant/4c Snow and 5-Color Niv.

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Post by Albegas » 1 year ago

I would say that the last paragraph describes the very problem with Astrolabe. Greedy manabases should absolutely be punished with heavy burn from shock lands and/or a weakness to Blood Moon. That's not something that should be easily circumvented with a main deck 4-of.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

motleyslayer wrote:
1 year ago
I'd be fine with a twin unban but 3 mana teferi makes the combo so much harder to interact with
So, Turn 1: Serum. Turn 2, Remand something, Turn 3, T3feri, maybe bounce something, T4, do nothing, then flash in tapper, T5 Twin?
I mean... I guess? Tapping out for Tef is a hard sell in a format that does some pretty bonkers stuff on, or by turn 3.
Tzoulis wrote:
1 year ago
On the Astrolabe discussion, I'm ambivalent on whether it should go or not. On the one hand it color fixes effortlessly and enables 3-5 color mana bases without fear of Blood Moon or Field of Ruin and on the other hand it produced cool decks like Bant/4c Snow and 5-Color Niv.
I mean, Astrolabe alone isn't necessarily the problem with that. We just had a top 8 deck in 3 colors with four main deck copies of Blood Moon, and zero Astrolabe (Temur Ponza), which effortlessly splashes for four Okos. Not like it will matter after tomorrow when Oko is banned, but just kind of interesting to see a deck register Breeding Pool next to four Blood Moons.


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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

I can kind of understand what some people here are saying about Mox Opal. Leaving the card around is just a recipe for disaster, making prints of stuff like 3 mana planeswalkers or Emry, Lurker possibly too good. I like to think the problem is more those new cards being printed. Before, Mox Opal's payoff was not usually something too strong (except during KCI), but now it's over the top when that mana is used to play a powerful card or two much earlier than expected.

In the past, I occasionally pointed to Mox Opal, wondering why it got a free pass when Birthing Pod, Splinter Twin, and Summer Bloom were banned. I felt that Affinity did super well in all of those metagames, so it surprised me. But it was more me not wanting something to be banned. I actually did not want Mox Opal banned. My 2 teammates play mostly colorless decks. They always argued with me about Ancient Stirrings vs. Preordain, but I could see that their bias would not allow them to see my point. Still, I would be sad for one of the friends not being able to use Mox Opal again (in Scales probably).

But Mox Opal and Simian Spirit Guide for that matter don't really spell out "Modern: the turn 4 format." No one is using those, hoping to win on turn 5 or interact all that much with their opponents (outside of a turn 1 Blood Moon if you consider that interacting). I feel that there are more pressing issues, so I truly hope that Mox Opal is NOT banned on Monday. And if it is indeed banned, while other cards are not, that indeed would be a HUGE slap in the face.
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Every minute that goes by, I feel more and more sure.

Oko, Veil, Astrolabe. Minimum. Anything less than that, and the format remains absolutely busted.
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

If you want more.

SCG Day Decklists.

http://old.starcitygames.com/decks/resu ... art_num/0/

Metagame.

https://old.starcitygames.com/events/co ... kdown.html

Modern Classic.

http://old.starcitygames.com/decks/Star ... e_TN_US/1/

All told, its just a damning level of evidence.
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