[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

metalmusic_4 wrote:
1 year ago
I don't see any twisted words, just a difference of opinion. I like to cheat on resources, it helps alot. But I think zorakkiller is just stating WOTC should push it less. That's a fine opinion. I disagree, I prefer more cheating spells and creatures of all types because I'm a combo player. But that is just my opinion and there is a balance that they have to work on to get it right for everyone.
I second this. I did not see twisted words either (no offense by me whatsoever). It's just a difference in opinion, to quote you.

I also enjoy when Wizards pushes things every once in a while. When they don't, it gets boring. There's really no way (debatable of course) for Wizards to know what can affect the meta in a meaningful way and what will cause something to get banned. I don't think that 2 weeks of Hogaak being a menace is "that bad." It's good for players to identify the best deck and what can be done (if anything) to combat that. That's a big part of Magic and one that I often do well at.

Now with War of the Spark and Modern Horizons coming out within a month of each other and ALL of the cards that have impacted Modern, it may be a bit too much. But I prefer that to just 2-4 cards slightly affecting decks. I know there's a middle ground, but I think it's hard for Wizards to really find that without testing Modern or at least opening up statistics to Modern players and letting them be the judge of that.
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Post by robertleva » 1 year ago

Nerfed Hogaak just 12-0'd the mtgo modern challenge. But yeah it's still fine. Bridge ban was the right choice. /eyeroll
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

Deck Tec for a newer version of hogaak from the SCG team event. He added some dredge cards and cathartic reunion. He explains why he thinks this version is better than the other versions.

http://www.starcitygames.com/events/cov ... arvey.html

I didn't get to watch much coverage yesterday but every time I was able to see a bit an urza deck was on camra, so that was interesting. Any major takeaways or brokenness from yesterday?

Edit: also I don't see the 12-0 hogaak list anywhere, does anyone have that link?

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

robertleva wrote:
1 year ago
Nerfed Hogaak just 12-0'd the mtgo modern challenge. But yeah it's still fine. Bridge ban was the right choice. /eyeroll
It is simply too early to make these kinds of statements. Challenges are notoriously unreliable measures for assessing the best Modern decks, especially in the aftermath of a major format change. Anything from the element of surprise to lack of SB preparation to opponent unfamiliarity to pure luck could be at play here. Moreover, the best Modern pros have incentive to sandbag any innovations this weekend in the lead up to the MC. All of this makes single Challenge results largely meaningless.

The MC will be a significantly more valuable measure of the metagame. We also have a number of healthy baselines from MC2 we can infer going into this MC. For instance, we know MC2 Dredge is considered healthy. We know the high Gx Tron Day 1 prevalence didn't matter with the deck's Day 2 dropoff and sub-50% MWP. We know Phoenix and Humans all had acceptable performance levels. Unless decks are exceeding those baselines, we won't have any significant worries after this MC either.

Of course, if Hogaak Dredge exceeds those baselines then we can talk, but we would still have not one, not two, but FOUR other GP from which to gather data. All of this underscores that it's way, way too early to bring up this kind of concern. Even if Hogaak Dredge ends up being just as bad as Hogaak Bridgevine, that doesn't mean we change the ban prediction/petition method to something more alarmist and reactionary. We stick with the proven, data-driven method that predicted the previous bans.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Challenges are notoriously unreliable measures for assessing the best Modern decks, especially in the aftermath of a major format change.
I agree. I think we should also remember this when using them to demonstrate "good" or "healthy" results as well.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Challenges are notoriously unreliable measures for assessing the best Modern decks, especially in the aftermath of a major format change.
I agree. I think we should also remember this when using them to demonstrate "good" or "healthy" results as well.
I agree with this. The only MTGO data that is indicative of health is a dataset combining Challenge/MOCS/Event-level data over many months. Curated 5-0 League results are basically meaningless. Of course, the true MTGO picture would be invaluable, but only Wizards has that and I doubt they plan to change their miserly data habits anytime soon.
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Post by BloodyRabbit » 1 year ago

It may not be very indicative, but as predicted Izzet Phoenix has now to make its own way in a field full of negative matchups. But anyone who played the deck already noticed it,

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Post by Simto » 1 year ago

I'm pretty hype about the Mythic Championship this weekend. Excited to see how the meta shapes up.

Hopefully Hexdrinker is nowhere to be seen so it goes down in price :)

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
People that pointed out this deck is broken, should be more careful at their future posts,
If this back handed snark is directed at me, all I did was showcase hard numbers of competitive dominance over an 8 month period, a period of dominance that would have gotten any deck banned at any other time in the format's history. Then said that the next several real events (MC/GPs) will tell us what we need to know and give us a a more meaningful picture than the useless league data and skewed Challenge results. :hmm:

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Post by LeoTzu » 1 year ago

Everyone in general should be more reasonable with their ban-talk. I'm sort of sick of everyone jumping onto the "it needs to be banned" bandwagon.

If WotC listened to the uproar that happens everytime a new deck puts up impressive results, Death's Shadow would be banned (which is doing very mediocre right now), something from Humans would be banned, something from Phoenix would be banned (which is also steadily losing metashare), and Neoform would be banned (which also hasn't been putting up any impressive results).

In the current climate of Modern, all of these decks are fine. None of them are putting up crazy results right now. Of course, Hogaak is another matter. It MIGHT still be too good, but we haven't even given the meta time to breath.

Now, if people want to argue that the format as a whole is off-track, that's another argument entirely. I could get on board with the argument that the format is better as a whole without Faithless Looting. The more I think about it, the more I am beginning to believe that the format would be better off, but I don't think that sort of vision for the format should be infused into ban talk in general.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... 2019-07-21

Hogaak is still pretty sick...then again as I look through it, people dropped main deck hate, and cut side hate too. This just in, you still need 4-6 pieces at least.

The UW list with Terminus/Mentor makes me want to throw up. A blind squirrel though...

Honestly it looks like the only people that respected GY decks, are the GY decks themselves lol.
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Post by pierreb » 1 year ago

I don't remember what was the exact justification for banning birthing pod, but I seem to remember it was both that it could incorporate whatever new creature they printed and that it made the games too similar.

I just wonder if they would end-up using a similar argument against little karn. I'm not a fan of its design wishing from the sideboard. It makes a whole bunch of decks run the same set of false SB cards. (i.e. they're really main deck cards hidden in the sideboard thanks to karn.)

I think karn homogenized the decks too much for my taste. It's not oppressive, just boring and annoying.

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Post by Greatest Gargadon » 1 year ago

pierreb wrote:
1 year ago
I don't remember what was the exact justification for banning birthing pod, but I seem to remember it was both that it could incorporate whatever new creature they printed and that it made the games too similar.

I just wonder if they would end-up using a similar argument against little karn. I'm not a fan of its design wishing from the sideboard. It makes a whole bunch of decks run the same set of false SB cards. (i.e. they're really main deck cards hidden in the sideboard thanks to karn.)

I think karn homogenized the decks too much for my taste. It's not oppressive, just boring and annoying.
Taken from the 2015 banlist announcement:

Over the past year, Birthing Pod decks have won significantly more Grand Prix than any other Modern decks and compose the largest percentage of the field. Each year, new powerful options are printed, most recently Siege Rhino. Over time, this creates a growing gap between the strength of the Pod deck and other creature decks. Pod won five of the twelve Grand Prix over the past year, including winning the last two. The high percentage of the field playing Pod suppresses decks, especially other creature decks, that have an unfavorable matchup. In the interest of supporting a diverse format, Birthing Pod is banned.
Difference between Pod and Karn is that Karn makes you sacrifice your sideboard, which is a very real cost vs pod being able to run a sideboard of 2-3 ofs, a few silver bullets, and then a bunch of silverbullets mainboard.
Pod decks also were able to be a combo deck, and a midrange deck at the same time. Karn makes a deck more staxy at the cost of the sideboard, and often times, having your bullet come down t4-t5 is too late.

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Post by Albegas » 1 year ago

pierreb wrote:
1 year ago
I don't remember what was the exact justification for banning birthing pod, but I seem to remember it was both that it could incorporate whatever new creature they printed and that it made the games too similar.

I just wonder if they would end-up using a similar argument against little karn. I'm not a fan of its design wishing from the sideboard. It makes a whole bunch of decks run the same set of false SB cards. (i.e. they're really main deck cards hidden in the sideboard thanks to karn.)

I think karn homogenized the decks too much for my taste. It's not oppressive, just boring and annoying.
Here's a link to the article where they explained Pod's ban
It's a pretty short read if you're just looking at pod, there were multiple reasons they hit Pod:
  • Its GP wins
  • The fact that it can incorporate any new, powerful creature that gets released, potentially allowing it to disproportionately boost its power at a faster pace than other creature decks
  • Its overall metagame presence (I wish I could find some decent numbers for the post-Khans, pre-ban metagame breakdown)
Making individual games too "samey" was not ever really a reason, and it wasn't just one of the listed reasons it was hit, it was all of the reasons. None of the baby Karn decks have had any particular dominance in major tournaments nor does any one deck seem to have a particularly high meta share. Karn also hasn't really homogenized the decks running him. Eldrazi Tron is very different from Gx tron despite both running baby Karn

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Karn, the Great Creator removes a lot of the deck-building decision process when it comes to choosing include card XYZ in the main, or leave it in the side. You just put a bunch of stuff you might need in the side, and wish them out as needed. Being able to tutor out whatever you want from your sideboard, repeatedly, while having the bonus effect of a lockout combo seems like a great way to make for awful games. You also aren't "sacrificing" anything. You'd be running those cards in the board anyway, but now you only have to run 1 copy and get to tutor it as early as game 1.

Honestly though, after playing Commander for four days straight at Comic Con, I'm super removed from even caring about Modern right now. Since pretty much all the best decks are either prison locks or fast aggro/combo, good, intriguing, fun games are few and far between. Here's hoping some random sweet spicy tech comes out of the MC, or the August B&R does anything to make the format better.

Will be interesting to see what happens to Hogaak. Turns out a quick early free recurring 8/8 Trampler is still pretty good! :laugh: At least better than the 1 mana vanilla 12/12 that makes you kill yourself!

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Post by Greatest Gargadon » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Karn, the Great Creator removes a lot of the deck-building decision process when it comes to choosing include card XYZ in the main, or leave it in the side. You just put a bunch of stuff you might need in the side, and wish them out as needed. Being able to tutor out whatever you want from your sideboard, repeatedly, while having the bonus effect of a lockout combo seems like a great way to make for awful games. You also aren't "sacrificing" anything. You'd be running those cards in the board anyway, but now you only have to run 1 copy and get to tutor it as early as game 1.

Honestly though, after playing Commander for four days straight at Comic Con, I'm super removed from even caring about Modern right now. Since pretty much all the best decks are either prison locks or fast aggro/combo, good, intriguing, fun games are few and far between. Here's hoping some random sweet spicy tech comes out of the MC, or the August B&R does anything to make the format better.

Will be interesting to see what happens to Hogaak. Turns out a quick early free recurring 8/8 Trampler is still pretty good! :laugh: At least better than the 1 mana vanilla 12/12 that makes you kill yourself!
Do you play online or in paper? What is your meta like?

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Post by Ym1r » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago


Honestly though, after playing Commander for four days straight at Comic Con, I'm super removed from even caring about Modern right now. Since pretty much all the best decks are either prison locks or fast aggro/combo, good, intriguing, fun games are few and far between. Here's hoping some random sweet spicy tech comes out of the MC, or the August B&R does anything to make the format better.

Will be interesting to see what happens to Hogaak. Turns out a quick early free recurring 8/8 Trampler is still pretty good! :laugh: At least better than the 1 mana vanilla 12/12 that makes you kill yourself!
I mean, UW is currently solidly Tier 1, winning two large tournaments in the past weeks, putting up results left and right. At the same time Jund sees a TON of success post MH. So I am not sure how you see all the best decks being either prison locks of fast aggro/combo. I mean, there are these decks of course, and they are really good, but that's also the case for a control and a midrange deck, both very clearly tier 1.
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Ym1r wrote:
1 year ago
I mean, UW is currently solidly Tier 1, winning two large tournaments in the past weeks, putting up results left and right. At the same time Jund sees a TON of success post MH.
Yep. The list by Shaheen Soorani is a thing of beauty, and if I was made of money, I would move into the new Jund decks (so many new cards) right away.

I actually quite like my Knightfall right now as well, but I love the Jund decks.

EDIT: The classic.

Mono-Red Phoenix 1st
Mono-Red Phoenix 2nd
Grixis Urza 3rd
Counters Company
Burn
Eldrazi Tron
Jund
Burn

Pretty (ok super) aggressive, but nothing too crazy. I hate the return of E-Tron, but we cant have it all I guess. :p
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Ym1r wrote:
1 year ago
I mean, UW is currently solidly Tier 1, winning two large tournaments in the past weeks, putting up results left and right. At the same time Jund sees a TON of success post MH. So I am not sure how you see all the best decks being either prison locks of fast aggro/combo. I mean, there are these decks of course, and they are really good, but that's also the case for a control and a midrange deck, both very clearly tier 1.
If it was unclear, I was classifying UW in its current iteration as a prison deck. I know it's definitely up to individual interpretation, but I definitely have vomited a bit lately looking at some of the recent UW lists. The 0 Snap, maindeck RIP ones are particularly egregious. :sick:

I can say that if I could play against Jund and Jund-like decks every round of every event, I would be in absolute heaven. Some of my absolute best and most favorite games have been against grindy value decks like Jund. It's just unfortunate how rarely that actually happens.

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Post by Albegas » 1 year ago

I think it's a huge exaggeration to call UW decks a prison deck. The only commonly seen prison elements are the Narsets and the Time Ravelers, which only make up about 5-6 cards. Putting it up there with the Grixis Whir decks, which can cut off way more vital avenues and bring back destroyed pieces, or the red prison decks that usually run 3-4 chalices, 4 Bridges and the Karn package, is rather misleading. I know you like playing reactive flash-based strategies so it might seem like a prison deck to you, but it really isn't.

I'm also curious as to where you're finding the Snap-less UW lists because all of the UW Control lists putting up notable results are still running 3-4 Snapcaster mages. Are these just ones you happen to play against online?

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Post by robertleva » 1 year ago

My thought is that they wanted Hogaak significantly reduced in power. I dont really see a drastic decrease in power. I think Bridge from Below was the unfortunate casualty of a WOTC ban team that doesn't seem to have a full set of... guts... between the lot of them.

If Looting is the wrong ban then they can always change unban it. But I personally feel like the format deserves a chance to see what decks can live and die with Looting out of the format. And this is coming from an 8rack player who absolutely HATES Bridge from Below.
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Post by Ym1r » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Ym1r wrote:
1 year ago
I mean, UW is currently solidly Tier 1, winning two large tournaments in the past weeks, putting up results left and right. At the same time Jund sees a TON of success post MH. So I am not sure how you see all the best decks being either prison locks of fast aggro/combo. I mean, there are these decks of course, and they are really good, but that's also the case for a control and a midrange deck, both very clearly tier 1.
If it was unclear, I was classifying UW in its current iteration as a prison deck. I know it's definitely up to individual interpretation, but I definitely have vomited a bit lately looking at some of the recent UW lists. The 0 Snap, maindeck RIP ones are particularly egregious. :sick:

I can say that if I could play against Jund and Jund-like decks every round of every event, I would be in absolute heaven. Some of my absolute best and most favorite games have been against grindy value decks like Jund. It's just unfortunate how rarely that actually happens.
I honestly don't see on what grounds could one classify UW control as a prison deck. Literally none of the successful lists runs 0 snapcasters. On the contrary, I would argue, if you were to follow the evolution of UW over 2018-2019, there was a point about 5-6 months ago, before WAR, that UW lists were running 2-3 snapcasters. Currently, the trend is back to 3-4, leaning towards 4.

RiP is ran as a 3-4 off, on the SB, and there are maybe a couple of lists that run 1 MB RiP. The most common maindeck GY hate is Surgical Extraction, which is also part of the reason that Snapcasters are on the rise. Narset can hardly be classified as a prison piece, considering it is just forcing player to draw the 1 card that they are allowed, just not more, and T3feri has prison elements as a card for sure, but there is more to it than that. Also, T3feri is ran in small numbers, currently having some versions that don't run him actually. As such, I think it really is not up for individual interpretation. UW is a control deck in every sense of the way. Mainly reactive, with counters and removals, creature/threat light, focus on exchanging card for card in the early game in order to accumulate advantage later on with minimal threats or card advantage engines.

Regarding Jund, it is on the rise and I am sure both you and everyone else have been facing it more and more. However, if Jund was the absolute norm, maybe you personally would be in MTG heaven, but I am sure the ban hammer would drop as heavy as it did on DRS, and for good reason.
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Albegas wrote:
1 year ago
I'm also curious as to where you're finding the Snap-less UW lists because all of the UW Control lists putting up notable results are still running 3-4 Snapcaster mages. Are these just ones you happen to play against online?
This popped up earlier today on my twitter feed:

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Post by Zorakkiller » 1 year ago

if modern's banned list was more reasonable, there would be much more reasonable ban talk. remember the people managing the banned list saw fit to unban goglari grave troll before blood-braid elf. there are reasons why the modern player base is the way it is. hopefully this is clear and won't be misquoted or lumped into someone else's argument.
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