[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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The Fluff
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
if you face Urza every tournament. Then maybe build an effective sideboard against the deck?
This is the outright best deck in Modern by a very clear margin and here you are with no experience playing against it, telling people to just build an effective sideboard against it.

Please enlighten us what an effective sideboard against Urza would look like so we can knock it off it's perch.
that's for you to discover since you're the one with the problem with the deck. I don't need to find an answer to it since it's not present here.
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Post by Tomatotime » 1 year ago

The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
that's for you to discover since you're the one with the problem with the deck. I don't need to find an answer to it since it's not present here.
Ya I think if there was a ubiquitous answer to Urza it would have been discovered by now...

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Post by True-Name Nemesis » 1 year ago

The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
if you face Urza every tournament. Then maybe build an effective sideboard against the deck?
This is the outright best deck in Modern by a very clear margin and here you are with no experience playing against it, telling people to just build an effective sideboard against it.

Please enlighten us what an effective sideboard against Urza would look like so we can knock it off it's perch.
that's for you to discover since you're the one with the problem with the deck. I don't need to find an answer to it since it's not present here.
if you're completely ignorant about a deck. Then maybe not give condescending advise about it?
Tomatotime wrote:
1 year ago
The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
that's for you to discover since you're the one with the problem with the deck. I don't need to find an answer to it since it's not present here.
Ya I think if there was a ubiquitous answer to Urza it would have been discovered by now...
Nah man, just build an effective sideboard against it.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

well, sorry I did't realize just saying build an effective sideboard is condescending.

since we stepped into cynical mode now. It's time for me to take a break from the conversation. I'm in rather good mood tonight, and I meant no offense with the "build an effective sideboard" comment.
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Post by Tomatotime » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
If, post Monday, all Tron pieces, (including Lattice, which I mainly aim for, wish it was expo map) are legal we should stop trying to change this, we should accept that Modern's identity is this format where a ton of 2-5% degen, uninteractive decks, collectively, each one at a small rate.
Ya I agree, at some point we will have to just give up the fight if Wotc shows it really just isn't interested in doing it's job as game designers, not even from a balance perspective, but just from the core idea of making a fun and engaging gaming experience. For me personally, there are simply too many alternatives for me to choose from in terms of spending my leisure time, and they don't cause me stress like this one does at this point.
gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
I am already moving onto Pioneer, a format where cards that suppress fair strategies are not accepted and being nuked off of the format. Make no mistake, if tron was pioneer legal, it would be 100% banned.
For me, I just don't think I have the strength to make the jump, even though I hate Modern at this point, it is where my heart is, and after taking years to learn the card pool, obscure and abstract rules which apply to Modern and not other formats like say Standard and Limited, it is tough for me personally to walk to a different format, I think I'd rather just walk away completely if that is the choice Wotc presents to me.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
well, sorry I did't realize just saying build an effective sideboard is condescending.

since we stepped into cynical mode now. It's time for me to take a break from the conversation. I'm in rather good mood tonight, and I meant no offense with the "build an effective sideboard" comment.
I think people take issue with it because, depending on the build, Urza decks have so many different things they can do. They go wide, they make fat creatures, they have incredible speed, they have incredible late game, they have abundance of mana, they have recursion loops, they have tutoring, they have insane mana fixing, they have several different avenues of attack, including infinite combos, and themselves have a versatile sideboard options. It's super hard to fight a deck doing half a dozen powerful things, each of which individually can end the game on its own. There's no sideboard that can help that, unless you build a 75 specifically to beat Urza, irrespective of other decks. And that's what many would call "warping."

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

After more tournaments have been added to mtgtop8, Oko is now the most played card in the entire format. Not just the most played threat, but it is also above lands. The only card higher in raw percentage terms is Breeding Pool, but it's average in decks that play it is much lower. 45.3% of decks, 3.4 per deck. That's 1.5402 copies per deck across the entire format. To put this in context, according to their numbers, Jace the Mind Sculptor during Standard Caw Blade was the top threat (and 4th most played card) at 39.9% and 3.8 copies per deck, or 1.5162 cards per deck.

Oko is now officially more dominant than JTMS at the peak of it's dominance.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

I believe there is a GP this weekend. Yes indeed.

Austin Modern 10-12 January 2020

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_M ... rix_events

So, we will see if what we believe to be true, translates to the GP. If we get another Urza/Oko/Tron/Titan Top 16, I predict change. At the very least, Oko will be banned on Monday, but thats not nearly enough to save Modern from what will essentially be player fatigue with what has been on average for the last 5 years, a disappointing format.
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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

Oh, I want to add on... in favor of banning Astrolabe (which I believe is the correct ban, not Oko or Urza). Astrolabe is now the second most played non land card in Modern at 34.6%/3.9 copies. It was already banned in Pauper which is also a non rotating format, it serves as an absolutely ridiculous enabler. And it's also climbing quickly now in even Legacy, to the point that it's warping deck construction for snow basics to cast it (Snow Covered Island is more prevalent than any dual land, Snow Covered Forest now beats out 7 out of 10 duals, only being behind Bayou, Tundra, and Underground Sea).

I know it's not one of the common cards to discuss, but Astrolabe should absolutely be banned. It has quietly been the enabler for both Urza and Oko, and Coatl, and is an enabler for Mox Opal.

Edit: Let me put the numbers on Astrolabe in slightly more context. A few posts ago I compared Oko as the top threat in Modern in terms of meta share to Tarmogoyf at it's peak, which held the top spot for many years. Tarmogoyf at it's peak was 2011 at 28.3%/4.0, which is less than Astrolabe is now. But that's comparing threats to non threats. Lightning Bolt in that era was the top non land at 32.5%/3.8 copies. Astrolabe is above that.

I'm at work right now, so I can't compare for certain, but I would put money on Astrolabe being on par or higher in meta prevalence than any top cards in the format in any year from 2018 or prior.

Edit 2: Took a small break. It's just barely behind Bolt as the top card in 2012, it's further behind bolt in 2013 but still ahead of the #2 card, Deathrite Shaman, 2014 has it still at #2, same for 2015, 2016 finds it starting to close the gap on Bolt (probably due to Bolt's demise due to Eldrazi), in 2017 Astrolabes current meta share would make it the top card in the format, and just barely below Bolt again in 2018.

So, Astrolabes meta share currently essentially would place it as the formats #2 card for all of Moderns history.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago
Oh, I want to add on... in favor of banning Astrolabe (which I believe is the correct ban, not Oko or Urza). Astrolabe is now the second most played non land card in Modern at 34.6%/3.9 copies. It was already banned in Pauper which is also a non rotating format, it serves as an absolutely ridiculous enabler. And it's also climbing quickly now in even Legacy, to the point that it's warping deck construction for snow basics to cast it (Snow Covered Island is more prevalent than any dual land, Snow Covered Forest now beats out 7 out of 10 duals, only being behind Bayou, Tundra, and Underground Sea).

I know it's not one of the common cards to discuss, but Astrolabe should absolutely be banned. It has quietly been the enabler for both Urza and Oko, and Coatl, and is an enabler for Mox Opal.
I'm 100% behind Astrolabe getting the axe...but Oko must go right? Like how is it even debatable? That card is obnoxiously strong.

If I had my way, without killing any decks outright and keeping bans at a lower number than what I really desire.

Oko, Astrolabe, and Veil, all need to go on Monday.
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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago
Oh, I want to add on... in favor of banning Astrolabe (which I believe is the correct ban, not Oko or Urza). Astrolabe is now the second most played non land card in Modern at 34.6%/3.9 copies. It was already banned in Pauper which is also a non rotating format, it serves as an absolutely ridiculous enabler. And it's also climbing quickly now in even Legacy, to the point that it's warping deck construction for snow basics to cast it (Snow Covered Island is more prevalent than any dual land, Snow Covered Forest now beats out 7 out of 10 duals, only being behind Bayou, Tundra, and Underground Sea).

I know it's not one of the common cards to discuss, but Astrolabe should absolutely be banned. It has quietly been the enabler for both Urza and Oko, and Coatl, and is an enabler for Mox Opal.

Edit: Let me put the numbers on Astrolabe in slightly more context. A few posts ago I compared Oko as the top threat in Modern in terms of meta share to Tarmogoyf at it's peak, which held the top spot for many years. Tarmogoyf at it's peak was 2011 at 28.3%/4.0, which is less than Astrolabe is now. But that's comparing threats to non threats. Lightning Bolt in that era was the top non land at 32.5%/3.8 copies. Astrolabe is above that.

I'm at work right now, so I can't compare for certain, but I would put money on Astrolabe being on par or higher in meta prevalence than any top cards in the format in any year from 2018 or prior.

Edit 2: Took a small break. It's just barely behind Bolt as the top card in 2012, it's further behind bolt in 2013 but still ahead of the #2 card, Deathrite Shaman, 2014 has it still at #2, same for 2015, 2016 finds it starting to close the gap on Bolt (probably due to Bolt's demise due to Eldrazi), in 2017 Astrolabes current meta share would make it the top card in the format, and just barely below Bolt again in 2018.

So, Astrolabes meta share currently essentially would place it as the formats #2 card for all of Moderns history.
To be fair literally every modern deck right now is UGx due to Oko/veil. UGx also has access to ice-fang and astrolobe makes it super easy to get to this card as well and as you said synergy with Mox Opal is another big bonus
I feel is Oko/veil is banned the percentage of Astrolobes will also drop quite a bit.
I do agree that banning Astrolobe instead could make a change but I'm unsure of the extent as of yet. It would certantly be a big nerf to Urza though, this 100% you are right on.
Last edited by Amalgam 1 year ago, edited 2 times in total.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

I'm holding off on the article until next week for a few reasons:

1. GP Austin data is super relevant to my GP attendance section.
2. Wizards seems likely to make ban decisions on Monday. They may also make a Modern statement.
3. I want to add article data to the content section, which will take a little time.

The recommendations section is unlikely to change much, but these pieces will really improve the Modern crisis section.
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

I already thought about Astrolabe and I have to agree with Aazadan. If Urza and Oko get banned and Tron receives a significant nerf I already know which deck will rise to the top: 4c Astrolabe+W6 control. W6 alone is enough to bury any opposing midrange deck in CA while also shutting down any x/1 creature. Rest of the deck can be used to fight uninteractive strategies and aggro.

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Post by Tomatotime » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
I already thought about Astrolabe and I have to agree with Aazadan. If Urza and Oko get banned and Tron receives a significant nerf I already know which deck will rise to the top: 4c Astrolabe+W6 control. W6 alone is enough to bury any opposing midrange deck in CA while also shutting down any x/1 creature. Rest of the deck can be used to fight uninteractive strategies and aggro.
Ya I'm going to need a citation on that in terms of W6, I have played W6 in Modern a fair bit and I am not seeing how exactly it buries any opposing midrange deck, are you talking about it's synergy with horizon lands? If so that takes a few turns to actually make a real impact, and you have to give up your land play every turn to actually do it which means you don't actually get to increase your land count on board turn to turn.

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
I already thought about Astrolabe and I have to agree with Aazadan. If Urza and Oko get banned and Tron receives a significant nerf I already know which deck will rise to the top: 4c Astrolabe+W6 control. W6 alone is enough to bury any opposing midrange deck in CA while also shutting down any x/1 creature. Rest of the deck can be used to fight uninteractive strategies and aggro.
Wrenn as he currently stands in modern is not an issue and is not even close to comparible to legacy power levels even if wasteland didn't exist in that format. Heck Modern isn't even full of 0/1 creatures like legacy either, it really is a non issue. Also tron isn't seeing a significant nerf, especially not right now so the above won't even happen to begin with really

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

robertleva wrote:
1 year ago
I like where this discussion is going, finally we seem to be getting on the same page mostly. My only concern now is that we aren't addressing the elephant in the room: What decks seriously need to go and to never be part of Modern? It's no secret modern hasn't been fun in years, and decks like Dredge and KCI and Urza are to blame.

Dredge and artifact combo must be stopped and removed from common play. Tron is just as bad but I won't bother trying to convince yall of that right now. If we can at least agree that dredge and artifact combo needs to never see the light of day again I will be happy.
I am happy to kill dredge, happy even to kill tron stone dead if you insist, I don't mind artifact control (Karn/lattice, artifacts, if such a beast ever existed), but don't want Urza combo either and would ban the Urza part for starters.
Decks that should not exist have to include Pod and Twin- you don't replace Urza, Tron etc with equally miserable decks from the past. If you make bans to kill unfair t0 decks, you don't make unbans to bring back previous tier one decks with combos. I would add that if you ban tron you can ban taking turns decks too by removing all the extra turns cards and really go for it and remove infect. Really go for it if you are going to ban Tron et al - if the deck can goldfish by t4, it goes. If it can take a ten minute turn - it goes. Might be a suitable reset if that is the way you want to go.
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

If in some fantasy world we decrease the power level by banning not just broken stuff (oko, veil, astrolabe for example) but hit Tron, Titans, Urza as well, in no world can you also unban Twin/Pod.

If those decks cannot exist, how can we justify that Twin should exist?
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Post by robertleva » 1 year ago

We are trying to get rid of annoying decks, not add back in old ones. Stop talking about Twin ffs.
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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
I'm 100% behind Astrolabe getting the axe...but Oko must go right? Like how is it even debatable? That card is obnoxiously strong.

If I had my way, without killing any decks outright and keeping bans at a lower number than what I really desire.

Oko, Astrolabe, and Veil, all need to go on Monday.
I don't know. I am admittedly bad at these things (though, I would also argue that everyone is bad at making ban decisions on the context of Modern).

I can't argue against the data that Oko's meta share right now is way too high, on that metric it should definitely banned if things stay as they are.

I can also readily agree that the card is horribly unfun to play against, and format health aside I'm in favor of getting rid of cards that are both highly played and very unfun on the basis that fun is what gets people to play more than anything. Though of course, using fun as a ban metric gets into all sorts of messy territory if you go too deep into that rabbit hole.

But, I'm not sure that Oko is still broken power wise if Astrolabe were to be banned. Oko would still be very good, and a legitimate threat in the format, probably even still within the top tier of threats. But maybe not quite so over the line. In favor of Oko going too I can cite Pioneer+Standard bans, but in favor of giving Oko another couple weeks without Astrolabe I can cite Astrolabe already being a known major player in enabling decks, and is part of the glue behind the top decks in the format right now. To that end, I would also point out that Astrolabe is a very reasonable nerf ban and with the new and improved flexibility in banning decisions, nothing prevents an additional ban 1 or 2 weeks later if it isn't sufficient (my argument being that Astrolabe is a necessary ban regardless of the presence of Oko).

That said, I still like the idea of a new vision statement paired with a ban list reset and weekly iterations to build a proper ban list and gather much needed data on the format.
Last edited by Aazadan 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
if you're completely ignorant about a deck. Then maybe not give condescending advise about it?
As someone who has talked to the Fluff quite often, I don't think he's being condescending. I am nearly 100% certain he's not trying to be. And I agree with many of the statements that you post here, so I feel like you're very in tune with the Modern scene.

Some people have a problem trying to adapt to certain cards or certain decks in the meta. I'm not talking about anyone specifically, but more the general Magic playing community and it's amplified in Modern because it is a "ban format." Now the next thing I'm going to say is my own opinion, so bear with me.

There are some decks that no one can adapt to like Eye of Ugin Eldrazi and Hogaak. Those were certainly banned for a reason and that reason is very relevant. Other cards have been banned like Birthing Pod, Splinter Twin, Summer Bloom, and much more. I believe in many of those cases, Modern players could have adapted to still win during those eras (without just using those decks). WotC didn't agree and brought down the ban hammer on those and many more. I do think that many of those cards and decks (Treasure Cruise Delver, etc.) were too good and needed to be banned, but as a player, you have to do what you can to continue winning. You don't want to be that guy that made the Pro Tour a bunch of times during Faeries, but didn't even top 8 a qualifier after that.

Next we have decks like Collected Company right after Twin was banned, Humans, G Shadow, and probably more that seemed super strong, but the meta adapted to them. New cards were printed. Other decks took off. They faced natural predators that were Tier 1 decks.

I think in the first category (Eldrazi and Hogaak), there simply is no adapting. In the 2nd category (Pod, Twin), people could have found decks to have success with, but the decks were deemed too strong at the time. I think Urza decks are in this category, although it's possible I'm wrong and they are simply in the Eldrazi/Hogaak territory because of freaking Oko. I just believe that some Modern players are too quick to give up and clamor for bans.

*As for what I do to SB vs. Sultai Urza.
1. Elementals - 2 Collector Ouphe (yes, even with Aether Vial, I have to side this), 3 Dismember, and 2 Ingot Chewer
2. Amulet Titan - 3 Dismember, 1 Collector Ouphe, Cavern of Souls, and an extra Engineered Explosives. I could bring in Disdainful Strokes too, but I want to remain heavily proactive and be the beatdown deck in the matchup.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - MBA, UB Inverter
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Yawmoth Chord, Uroza
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

I think one thing people seem to also forget is there is also crowds in the game that enjoy unfair decks that people here consider problematic as they don't interact. It's quite easy to say we should remove 3-4 different decks from modern but please don't forget about the people who actually enjoy these style of decks especially when they aren't pushing new boundaries. For example when people in these threads were pushing with Neoform to be banned because they didn't like the deck when in fact it has a subpar winrate and some people bought in because they enjoy that playstyle. What you consider problematic for other people is why they enjoy the game and outright killing 3-4 decks will make other people leave the game/format too

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

robertleva wrote:
1 year ago
We are trying to get rid of annoying decks, not add back in old ones. Stop talking about Twin ffs.
So here's the thing, with the following context.

1. I dont really care about Modern anymore, its more academic than anything to see if it can be saved.
2. Obviously I'm biased towards Twin, and I blame its removal for the nose dive this format took.

That said.

If we are going to ban out all the annoying decks, why even play Modern?

What cards are you looking to play? What decks? Why would you not simply play Standard or now Pioneer?

What is worth saving in this format?
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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
If in some fantasy world we decrease the power level by banning not just broken stuff (oko, veil, astrolabe for example) but hit Tron, Titans, Urza as well, in no world can you also unban Twin/Pod.

If those decks cannot exist, how can we justify that Twin should exist?
Exactly, if you need to nerf all the naughty stuff, Twin can't exist.
If you nerf Tron, et al, they can't come back. But I thought that was the suggestion being discussed- a total reset of the format.

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Post by robertleva » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
robertleva wrote:
1 year ago
We are trying to get rid of annoying decks, not add back in old ones. Stop talking about Twin ffs.
So here's the thing, with the following context.

1. I dont really care about Modern anymore, its more academic than anything to see if it can be saved.
2. Obviously I'm biased towards Twin, and I blame its removal for the nose dive this format took.

That said.

If we are going to ban out all the annoying decks, why even play Modern?

What cards are you looking to play? What decks? Why would you not simply play Standard or now Pioneer?

What is worth saving in this format?
That's the point, we have no idea what could emerge if we had all these damn troll decks gone. Something healthy the way Pioneer is right now presumably. At this point what do we have to lose? Might as well take an axe to the format now and try to salvage the few remaining years. As I said before, IF we could some how create a fun playing field of decks and keep the troll decks out of the format for a good long time maybe there could be some long term life here...
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

Amalgam wrote:
1 year ago
I think one thing people seem to also forget is there is also crowds in the game that enjoy unfair decks that people here consider problematic as they don't interact. It's quite easy to say we should remove 3-4 different decks from modern but please don't forget about the people who actually enjoy these style of decks especially when they aren't pushing new boundaries. For example when people in these threads were pushing with Neoform to be banned because they didn't like the deck when in fact it has a subpar winrate and some people bought in because they enjoy that playstyle. What you consider problematic for other people is why they enjoy the game and outright killing 3-4 decks will make other people leave the game/format too
I played Neoform and I think that it should have a card banned. In fact, right now may be a solid time to get back to the deck, as Force of Negation has really died down. Turn 1 Thoughtseize and Metallic Rebuke seem to be the only cards holding this deck down.
idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
If we are going to ban out all the annoying decks, why even play Modern?

What cards are you looking to play? What decks? Why would you not simply play Standard or now Pioneer?

What is worth saving in this format?
Thank you! Modern is the "annoying deck" format. What do you want to play in Modern if you don't want to play an annoying deck - Little Kid vs. UB Control? Any current deck with Oko is annoying (no explanation needed pls). Jund is annoying. Tron is annoying. Burn is annoying. Bogles is annoying. You best believe Amulet is annoying. Same for Titanshift, especially with a possible turn 3 Scapeshift for lethal coming after Return to Theros. 8 Rack is annoying. I dare someone to list a single deck, even if it's Tier 3 or below that is NOT annoying. Even decks that lose a lot are annoying.

[mention]robertleva[/mention] - Pioneer is healthy? Pioneer is basically Frontier with 34 cards banned. 80% of the meta is Aggro and 10% is UW Control. This format is just barely deeper than Standard.

*Here is something for people who hate Tron so much. Here are the decks I play that beat Tron.
1. Titanshift.
2. GR Breach.
3. Amulet Titan.
4. Neobrand

Here are the decks that I play that 50/50 it.
1. Devoted Druid combo
2. Sultai Urza
3. Elementals
4. Elves
5. Grixis Shadow

Here's a deck that I hate that stooooooooooooooooomps it - Infect. Ad Nauseam and Storm do worse now that Karn, the Great Creator is around, but I'm pretty sure that it's still favored for them.

You guys are missing the point that idSurge has brought up several times. Tron is only a problem because of the London Mulligan. Without that, it's just a strong Tier 2 deck.
Last edited by FoodChainGoblins 1 year ago, edited 2 times in total.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - MBA, UB Inverter
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Yawmoth Chord, Uroza
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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