[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Ed06288
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Post by Ed06288 » 1 year ago

There's also the issue of LGS's closing down, which happened to a store near me. This is a bigger threat than format health or prices on cards. I also wonder if we have too many formats right now. Modern is in decline, but is pioneer even drawing in good numbers?

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

In legacy, astrolabe has meant greedy five colour decks playing Blood Moon. Moon! This is supposed to be the antidote!
These are odd, odd days, and the whole new design paradigm is abominable.
Astrolabe, W6, Oko, Urza, Hogaak, Veil, etc.
A huge number of errors in multiple formats. I don't count karn or Teferi in that lot too, I am talking clear errors, not arguable cases. Clear, unmissable, egregious errors.
Not all need to go from all.formats, but I want to know how they missed so much.

Veil should have been great, a boost for Maverick, Nic Fit and Depths and not much else, Rug maybe, but astrolabe means it is in everything in Legacy almost...
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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Urza or Mox Opal
Veil of Summer
Oko
Not sure if E-Tron is dominating that much, because Chalice is that good vs Urza and thus should be banned or not, but if yes, ban
Expedition Map or Lattice
Seriously... Urza hasn't had any appearances without Oko and Veil for months. While the duo of Oko and Veil have been appearing everywhere to great success. These top 8s have way more Okos than Urzas. The above suggest that Oko and Veil are the problem and not Urza -and certainly not Opal.

Over-correcting is way worse than banning 2 surefire options, waiting a month or two and evaluating again. If there's clear evidence take action earlier, but only then.

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

Gkouru I agree 101%! This numbers can't be ignored anymore. E Tron ruins mtgo and urza online + paper. People defending this numbers will defend it no matter how reality is. It's not first time, not second, even not 10....since now 1 year modern gets destroyed with busted sh.t. A joke if some less people still talking about waiting another 2 months. They will wait in 3, in 6 and in 8 still like whole last year they did. In this time they will play this deck in their fnm and stores and take prizes... Because hey, it's fair and only ok

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Post by Ed06288 » 1 year ago

The powercreep and new product lines like secret lair could be the new norm. We've had CEO changes in Wizards and Hasbro over the years. The game may have shifted to something closer to yugioh and pokemon. Isn't Magic getting a tv show for kids on netflix? I'm already seeing books about the mtg storyline in barnes and noble.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Ed06288 wrote:
1 year ago
The powercreep and new product lines like secret lair could be the new norm. We've had CEO changes in Wizards and Hasbro over the years. The game may have shifted to something closer to yugioh and pokemon. Isn't Magic getting a tv show for kids on netflix? I'm already seeing books about the mtg storyline in barnes and noble.
I am positive if 2019 is the new normal Magic takes a massive hit in the next 2 years.
UR Control UR

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
I know that 2019 was the year of ban mania, both legitimately and through unwarranted player outcry, but we really need to stop discussing bans and unbans. Modern has a much more existential threat in Pioneer's presence on Arena and Modern's (so-far) absence on that platform. I also know that many people are tired of fighting these larger battles and just want Wizards to unban some Modern cards so their format experience is a little better. These short-term fixes are not going to preserve your collection value or keep you happy for long. The graver threat to Modern is now, and has been since the Pioneer announcement, its absence from Arena and Wizards' pledge to bridge Historic into Pioneer on their premier platform. Until Wizards addresses this in some way, and until players understand this is the foundational threat, all the other topics need to be distant, secondary issues.

Bans are likely important to stabilize Modern. So are unbans, better answers, an overall shift in the design philosophy, etc. But none of this matters if Wizards isn't supporting the format. See Legacy for an example of a format that I believe many ban/unban proponents would want Modern to become, but also a format that withers without sustained Wizards support. There are currently no significant differences between Modern and Pioneer. They have the same identity, except one is getting supported in Wizards' most important product in over a decade and one is dwindling without that support.
This is a very good point to consider, if the format doesn't have a long term future, then most Modern cards people like now are essentially done for. Anything pre pioneer unless it slots into Legacy is essentially gone at that point.

If we want to convince Wizards to continue to support Modern, we have to keep in mind that they're a business and that the language of business is ultimately money. Sure, WotC wants a good game, but they have to turn a profit that justifies the investment while making that game.

There's two ways to do this. Show direct revenue, in terms of profits available from continuing to support the format and send it to arena. And indirect revenue through their actions in supporting older cards, and assurances that a game where cards are meant to be played even after standard are never phased out and can exist in multiple formats which in turn encourages confidence in buying current cards.

The first is probably easy enough to justify, because it involves nothing more than an expansion of their plans to already add Pioneer to Modern. We could also possibly cite MTGO league data on number of players for Vintage/Legacy/Modern to show that demand for these formats does exist, and contrast that with the number of cards that need added.

When thinking of this, thinking of format overlap is probably important. Pioneer is a subset of Modern which is a subset of Legacy which is a subset of Vintage, but... the gap in cards between Legacy and Vintage is much, much smaller than any other gap. That gap being important because we can leverage it against player interest (MTGO data can gauge that) to show that it makes sense to justify the investment.

Now, for the second part, the idea of player confidence is harder to show. But, Wizards does seem to track that and is constantly aware of players losing faith in the game if they're unable to play their cards. Reminding of this in the context of Pioneer vs Legacy could be important, especially given what they did with Legacy and Eternal Masters, then cutting Legacy support and now Modern and Modern Horizons only to follow up almost right away with Pioneer.
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Look though...ktk and drmarkb are not wrong. I dont think anyone with a longer term view on the format would disagree with their positions.

But...so what? Unless you are going to sell out your collection tomorrow, there is still a point in fixing this format.

Ban 6 or so cards, unban a few, and let people remember what made Modern ACTUALLY good, instead of just the only option available. Its not the only show in town now, it needs to stand on its own merits, and it has not done so for years, actual.factual.years.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
But...so what? Unless you are going to sell out your collection tomorrow, there is still a point in fixing this format.
Doing so is also very costly. Either in time, listing things one by one, or in money, by taking a huge hit selling in bulk.

I can say I would much rather be playing with my cards rather than selling them. But when all I have are miserable experiences every time I play in paper... *shrug*

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
But...so what? Unless you are going to sell out your collection tomorrow, there is still a point in fixing this format.
Doing so is also very costly. Either in time, listing things one by one, or in money, by taking a huge hit selling in bulk.

I can say I would much rather be playing with my cards rather than selling them. But when all I have are miserable experiences every time I play in paper... *shrug*
This is something I've been noticing in Magic for a while now. My cards are becoming considerably less liquid over time. Over the past couple years I've gotten myself a good job and have been shifting much of my collection over to promos because I like them and now have the disposable income to buy them. The thing is though, I'm having a hell of time actually selling my previous non promo versions of cards. I can do so through eBay or tcgplayer I suppose, but I can't find anyone in person or any local shops that would be interested in buying them at reasonable prices (aka, something above buy list but below market price).

And I'm not talking about crap, I'm talking about things like Mox Opals, Fetches, Goyfs,Snapcasters, Liliana of the Veils, Raging Ravines, Celestial Colonnades, Cryptic Commands, and more. And I just can't find people interested in buying them that doesn't involve me spending absurd amounts of time dealing with shipping BS.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago
And I'm not talking about crap, I'm talking about things like Mox Opals, Fetches, Goyfs,Snapcasters, Liliana of the Veils, Raging Ravines, Celestial Colonnades, Cryptic Commands, and more. And I just can't find people interested in buying them that doesn't involve me spending absurd amounts of time dealing with shipping BS.
Hard to sell format staples for a format that is struggling on all fronts.

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago
And I'm not talking about crap, I'm talking about things like Mox Opals, Fetches, Goyfs,Snapcasters, Liliana of the Veils, Raging Ravines, Celestial Colonnades, Cryptic Commands, and more. And I just can't find people interested in buying them that doesn't involve me spending absurd amounts of time dealing with shipping BS.
Hard to sell format staples for a format that is struggling on all fronts.
It isn't just modern struggling right now. It's basically all paper formats outside of EDH are currently having a really bad time in magic.
Fetchs etc would still be liquid if modern died tomorrow even if they dropped some in price. Staples Like Goyfs, Liliana etc have had massive downticks in modern and don't see as much play in legacy right now so these are more understandably hard to move

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Post by Card Slinger J » 1 year ago

I'm guessing a lot of Modern players are too afraid to switch over to Pioneer because Wizards of the Coast might end up banning certain cards that cost players a ton of money like what happened in Modern with Splinter Twin and Birthing Pod years ago. It also doesn't help that the MPL (Magic Pro League) for Standard discourages people from playing competitive Paper Magic so that's probably making it a lot harder for these cards to move within the Secondary Market.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Card Slinger J wrote:
1 year ago
I'm guessing a lot of Modern players are too afraid to switch over to Pioneer because Wizards of the Coast might end up banning certain cards that cost players a ton of money like what happened in Modern with Splinter Twin and Birthing Pod years ago. It also doesn't help that the MPL (Magic Pro League) for Standard discourages people from playing competitive Paper Magic so that's probably making it a lot harder for these cards to move within the Secondary Market.
That exact scenario has kept me from buying Urzas, Opals, and Okos. Shame. Seems like a deck I would super enjoy playing. Just not enough to light $1,000 on fire.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

Amalgam wrote:
1 year ago
It isn't just modern struggling right now. It's basically all paper formats outside of EDH are currently having a really bad time in magic.
Fetchs etc would still be liquid if modern died tomorrow even if they dropped some in price. Staples Like Goyfs, Liliana etc have had massive downticks in modern and don't see as much play in legacy right now so these are more understandably hard to move
Fetches are easy to sell online, I'm having a hell of a time trying to sell extras locally though.

But you're right that it's not just Modern cards, I have a full set of 40 ABU duals, I'm planning to sell a considerable portion of those. I can't find local buyers at all. They're again, likely possible to sell online but I'm trying to keep them more or less in the local community, and so far it's just not happening.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Duals are tough to sell because the only places they see any meaningful play are formats which generally don't care about proxies/fakes and frequently run unsanctioned events (Commander/Legacy/Vintage). Marketplace is for collectors more than players.

I'm not going to lie when I say I have full sets of duals in all my Commander decks that only cost me about $3-4 a piece. Some are actually stylized in full-art Unstable land style.

That said, I'm also sitting on a fat stack of Polluted Deltas and Flooded Strands I picked up at its lowest point during KTK Standard (about DTK release).... they've had no meaningful movement in 4+ years. Joke's on me for thinking blue would be a relevant color in Modern in 2015, eh? :party:

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

Card Slinger J wrote:
1 year ago
I'm guessing a lot of Modern players are too afraid to switch over to Pioneer because Wizards of the Coast might end up banning certain cards that cost players a ton of money like what happened in Modern with Splinter Twin and Birthing Pod years ago. It also doesn't help that the MPL (Magic Pro League) for Standard discourages people from playing competitive Paper Magic so that's probably making it a lot harder for these cards to move within the Secondary Market.
It's not the fear of bans that keep me out of Pioneer. It's a lack of faith in how Wizards is managing the game. In the past few years I have seen what I can only describe as multiple cash outs from Magic so far. Both Wizards and other major retailers.

First there was SCG's cutback of Legacy. For those who don't remember, they had a fairly decent sale on Legacy staples, I think it was around 20 or 25 percent off. A few weeks after the sale they announced a major reduction in the number of Legacy events they were going to hold.

Then, there was Eternal Masters, where Wizards made a real effort to attempt to support Legacy, at least as much as the Reserved List would allow. Following this set Wizards pushed the team PT which included Legacy, barely showed Legacy on camera and then backed out of the format almost entirely. Move forward 2 years and SCG has now dropped all support for the format.

Next, we got Modern Horizons, which while including several cards that were needed for the format, has also seriously screwed the format up. The set appears to have been nothing more than a poorly thought out cash grab, and several of the answer cards that the set introduced have instead caused more problems than the problems they were supposed to solve.

After Modern Horizons, we got the announcement for Pioneer. This has left many Modern players honestly wondering what is about to happen to Modern. Wizards says they're going to continue to support it, but they said that about Legacy too, and look at what happened. Actions speak louder than words here, and so far we've seen no actions and very few words in terms of Moderns current issues or it's future.

Next is the GP issue. We are seeing fewer and fewer paper tournaments broadcast. SCG has cut back, GP's have been almost entirely eliminated from coverage, As a paper player I am honestly wondering how much longer I'm going to be able to find places to play the game regularly. All I am seeing is fewer and fewer advertisements for the paper game. Not helping matters is the fact that LGS's have been seeing a decline in support for years and sets like Secret Lair (and already having confirmation that such sets will continue) show that Wizards doesn't even intend to distribute through stores any longer.

The formats I play are Modern, Legacy, and EDH. I am willing to play Pioneer, but I will not play it online and I will not continue to buy product in Magic without the paper game continuing to exist. Magic is an excellent game, but it is a horrible video game. I want to continue to buy new cards and give Wizards money so that they continue to make Magic, but I am not going to be a willing customer if I don't have confidence that the game is going to continue in paper, and that my older cards have formats where they can be played and supported. I have made my peace with Legacy but only because EDH exists. There will be no such salvation for Modern.

Finally, on that note... EDH will not be coming to Arena either. That is a realistic card pool orders of magnitude larger than anything we are talking about for Modern. Brawl is Wizards intended replacement for the format. Although I am only a casual player of EDH, I am concerned for the future of that format as well as the intended transition has already been made clear.

In short, I am losing confidence that Wizards wants any cards prior to 2012 to exist any longer. That not only bothers me now, but should I continue to play Magic in the online realm as they want, what happens when in a few years they move to a platform other than Arena, have to import a new card pool, and yet again decide to leave cards behind (not to mention make me rebuy previous cards)?

And since Modern Horizons I am RAPIDLY losing confidence. There was a mismanaged response to Hogaak. There has been a mismanaged response to Urza and Oko (what that response is, I am not sure... but I am certain that radio silence is not a good response). The large Modern tournaments following Modern Horizons were in large part not streamed, in an era when any game store has the capability to stream games. And Pioneer while so far signaling zero intent to keep Modern around as a premier format (especially since it's conveniently no longer on the online platform they endorse) released slightly after Modern Horizons stopped selling, has left me feeling more than a bit burned.

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Post by TheAnnihilator » 1 year ago

The format's longevity is also influenced by its playability. WotC won't support modern if it isn't being played. The fact that cards like Urza, Veil, and even Oko and T3feri still exist in Modern is part of its death knell. Similarly, when cards like Twin, Zenith, and, to a lesser extent, Pod are still banned, you lose access to people who would play a more interactive and subjectively "fun" modern. I'd love to see a mass exodus of cards to/from the ban list. Stoneforge was a great first step.

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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

TheAnnihilator wrote:
1 year ago
cards like Twin, Zenith, and, to a lesser extent, Pod are still banned, you lose access to people who would play a more interactive
None of these promoted interaction.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Duals are tough to sell because the only places they see any meaningful play are formats which generally don't care about proxies/fakes and frequently run unsanctioned events (Commander/Legacy/Vintage). Marketplace is for collectors more than players.
Have experienced that. Had to post, and repost on various facebook groups my legacy duals.. still took a few years before they sold out. Good riddance, and thanks for the profit. Lots of local people getting hooked on EDH helped me move the duals. Hmm, and I don't even know how to play EDH.. there must be something fun about it, since they're willing to spend for it. :thinking:

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about Modern Horizons... got lots of fun cards to play with, and Hogaak spiralled a series of events that led to the unbanning of Stoneforge. Got a bit selling sfm's and sfm related stuff. The happy days did not last long however, because I realized that the downfall of tarmogoyf negated almost half my profits on sfm. Well, that's life... you win some, and lose some. Just glad I was able to move sofai, before the sfm hype died down.
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Post by True-Name Nemesis » 1 year ago

Wow, cardboard that costs hundreds of dollars a pop are harder to move, who woulda thought. Sounds almost like people put more time and consideration into big purchases over small ones.

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

I would like to see Veil in a world without oko, labe, urza.

It is abdolute nuts in Legacy, the brainsorm and decay format, but even then only main decked as a couple of copies in labe decks, and that format has a huge percentage of blue and black decks.

As a board card I don't have a huge issue with it in older formats It is probably too good, pretty powerful to incredibly powerful and quite broad, but having won plenty of matches against old affinity by t2 Stony Silence, etc., having dropped RIP for wins that is what board cards do, break matches.

Obviously in Standard, that is different. Pioneer maybe. In Modern it is a mistake, but not Oko level error, so I would like to give it sux months in a format without a few of the big offenders.

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Tzoulis wrote:
1 year ago
TheAnnihilator wrote:
1 year ago
cards like Twin, Zenith, and, to a lesser extent, Pod are still banned, you lose access to people who would play a more interactive
None of these promoted interaction.
The people promoting these cards as interactive mean 'you have to have the answer and interact now'. They mean the card encourages you to put answers in. Pod and gsz are the same type of card, both read put a dude into play, unfortunately the people using them put a dude into play that was half a combo, not a combat orientated beat stick, which is what wotc want. Twin decks without twin are interactive, counters and burn. Once they are comboing off they aren't, they are asking you to have interaction there and then. That is what all combo decks do. The question is how much of them wotc want. In Pioneer it is clear- amost none.
In Modern we won't see them back I feel.


I
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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
I would like to see Veil in a world without oko, labe, urza.
Urza is Simic because of Oko not Veil. Oko lets the deck cut "bad" artifacts with a card that helps with artifact count, aggro match-ups and creatures. Because of that, the deck now gets to use cards like Crypic and Archmages Charm, to combat combo and big mana decks on the cheap. Without him Dimir is a better fit because of Thoughtseize, Push, Unmoored Ego and Tezz. More importantly the deck is much weaker to the decks it should be.

So no, I'd rather they cut Oko (and Veil) and see from there.
drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
The people promoting these cards as interactive mean 'you have to have the answer and interact now'. They mean the card encourages you to put answers in. Pod and gsz are the same type of card, both read put a dude into play, unfortunately the people using them put a dude into play that was half a combo, not a combat orientated beat stick.
So, they're combo pieces that promote the playstyle of "interact with me now or die". Seems to go against what you've been asking for. Nevermind that Pod's backup plan was extremely strong. They're not cards like SFM that promote a midrange or control plan.

Whether they're healthy or of appropriate power level for Modern is another matter entirely. They're two different questions that both need to be answered adequately and positively.

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

I am not really asking for anything beyond better hate in general, especially for critters and walkers. Better, hateful control so that if they make Okos they don't always get banned. I also want more scry and filtering to get the hate, without enabling too much combo.

I can't stand, as most here can't, the horrible imbalance between threats and answers, and wotc's refusual to get that for the game to be healthy, Johnny big monster needs to be sad some of the time.

I am not arguing for unbanning those cards, if that is what you mean.
I am asking for watch lists and/or suspensions, as well as permabans, so that we know where we stand. It is too late for the old cards.

I think some combo in a format is healthy, but it is hard to bring combo to the format without good hate. Cursed totem and one for Walkers is a start. We would have fewer issues with cards on the ban list if they allowed this type of card.

I would hate for the modern format to be interactive midrange mush, as pioneer could end up, any more than I want Urza and Tron for all...there should be a space for many archetypes, but wotc keep imbalancing threat and answers, banning threats because they won't print answers, for fear of upsetting Johnny big monster.

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