[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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The Fluff
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
As for Siege Rhino, I was kind of talking out my ass. I just don't see a format in which they've done this many bans this early surviving. I don't care if "they said they'd do a ban announcement every Monday and stuff would get banned." I know there are 20 people ready to jump in here and tell me that. There can be no consumer confidence because customers' cards have become bulk rares. I had many of these cards and yes, I was dumb to not have sold them after they spiked like crazy. But I wanted to actually play some of them in a tournament that matters, like next year's GPs. Nope, I literally don't know what will be legal by then...
your mentioning of Siege Rhino actually reminded of the funny ChannelFireball youtube video with 35 rhinos. haha :grin:

as for the pioneer bans... we're sort of still in limbo on what stays or what get's hammered. For the finance aspect, at the start I had the urge to hoard copters... but by some stroke of luck have not bought any yet, as the 3/3 transport vehicle was among the first to be banned. Maybe things will be more stable in pioneer next year, when large tournaments show which decks are on top of the game. With two modern decks, and two pioneer decks.. I like both modern and pioneer equally. :)
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Ban poll: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=22437
Unban poll: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=22436

Feel free to step by and leave your vote!
******UNBAN TWIN!******UNBAN BRIDGE!******

****BAN SOMETHING FROM THE URZA DECK!***

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Outside of the US mtg seasons don't really hold. 95 pc of players can't tell you when they are.

There is no Modern season in Europe, Japan etc.
Big events are independently run, and occur whenever throughout the year. We don't follow seasons to a great extent, if you play a format and are prepared to travel a little big events are there to grind.

Most of my sales are to Uk, Eu and Australua/Canada, and they have nosedived if the card is Modern only, I have really cut the prices down to get any movement. Edh stuff continues to fly off the shelf at record levels, pioneer stuff took off and has steadied, there is a little market uncertainty.

Modern will shortly be dropped forever by my Lgs. The fifty miles away where I play has moved it to Thursdays from Fridays in an effort to keep it going. These are permanent changes and reflected anecdotally in Lgs across the board here.

There will still be a residual Modern demand, but it does not matter what I like or want to play. I want to play prison. I want to play meta decks. I want to look at the green tron player and blow up their land after land after land. I want to drop a stupid enchantment prison deck and smile knowingly at the aggro or scapeshift players before finishing rhe game with Enduring Ideal or Obliterate. I want to ramp into Primal command or drop hate bears. That is besides the point. The financial stuff, which I have to be pretty decent at reading (I am part time now because of the game), is all pointing in one direction across the world, beyond December dips, the usual Christmas softening (which has not happened on Edh stuff) and US seasons.


Pioneer is where the last three or four generations of Mtg players are heading. Remember they were bought up on garbage critter with broken PWs/mechanics vs critter with same broken PWs/mechanics. They know no different. A decade of grim Standards and those still playing are playing Edh and dipping in and out of standard periodically. Those are the guys and girls Pioneer will capture. It does not have to be better than Modern, it has to be cheaper and not Standard.

I don't especially like Pioneer, I am picking up Legacy duals for personal use, not Modern staples, and I have nothing to gain by talking down Modern's prospects.

A lot of people play what they read about and the sites like Tcg and Scg are not making Modern content. That really hurts Modern.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Lots to respond to in this thread, but I think this quote and response sums up most of it:
Amalgam wrote:
1 year ago
I dont understand how anyone can with a straight face tell me pioneer is a good or even fun format. It's an extremely linear format that will continue to be broken set after set as it has zero answers. The fact that even mana leak is considered too good for standard should tell you enough. People care at the moment as wizards are pushing the format and are trying out all their new brews at fnm. If I had to say one thing about the format which will stick to it is that it's a terrible tournament format.
If you think modern is bad now please look at pioneer again in 12 months when it's another 20 bans deep and has simillar moaning to this thread about modern now
I 100% agree that Modern has the potential to be a better format than Modern. It has a better card pool, better access to answers, the potential (and, in some cases, reality) of more diversity, and the stronger player foundation. But none of this actually matters because Wizards is CHOOSING to support Pioneer on Arena and simultaneously increase paper support to push the format. That corporate choice is what will kill Modern. It has nothing to do with Pioneer or Modern as a format. It is simply Wizards' decision to promote Pioneer, Arena, esports, digital MTG, and link Pioneer with all that growth. As long as Wizards continues to push Historic as the bridge to a pushed Pioneer, Modern is a goner. If Wizards changes its position or somehow states/suggests Modern will come to Arena in the semi-near future, then Modern will almost immediately be saved. Until that happens, however, Modern will rapidly decline in favor of the bright new promised future of Pioneer, even if the Pioneer reality does not match that promised future.

We need to remember that neither Modern nor Pioneer have clear or distinct format identities right now. They are both nonrotating formats where you can play strategies too powerful/old for Standard. Both have access to powerful, older cards. Both are opportunities for enfranchised players to have cards retain value. Both will have long banlists and numerous bans arising out of broken new sets. Both will generate significant player complaints about what is fair/fun/broken/acceptable/etc. in their respective formats. Neither will have a distinct identity unless Wizards prints some kind of vision statement for both formats; given that they haven't done this for Modern since 2016, I'm not currently optimistic this will happen.

All of this is to underscore that there is nothing special about Modern or Pioneer EXCEPT that Wizards is choosing to support Pioneer as their Arena/digital/esport format of the future. That choice alone is all that matters right now. All the other format health questions and debates are irrelevant compared to that decisive point.
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Yes, this. And more.

You guys- yes even you guys obsessed with tw*n- are great, but all the love in the world we can muster won't save Modern. Only wotc.
Legacy had this already and was saved by its community. Those RL cards that are killing Legacy were also its saviour. Buying those duals, Chains, Moats et al meant that people had a vested interest in keeping their cards active and valuable. Knowing that reprints were not going to happen made them safe investments. Not having prizes made for events people play for fun, which helps attendance by itself.

It is ironic, but the only thing that would persuade me financially to buy into Modern staples is a new reserved list with a few of them on it. Otherwise, awooga, awooga, this is not a drill, abandon ship.

I am nit arguing for expanded RL btw, merely saying what it would take for me to buy in more than the token couple of decks and their variations I kept.

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

On the 'modern is dead' refrain. Yes it has been here for ages. This time the people saying it are different, more numerous and frankly, better at reading the wind than those in the past who always declared modern to be dead because of the printing of x or banning of y. Bad descions, if there were any, don't cause formats to collapse. Broken cards don't either. Formats erode before they collapse, and very little from the outside causes collapse. We have two singular events- Arena and Pioneer. Neither on their own could do it but together, and with supoort of cfb/scg, they can cause the format to fall, even if not immediately. Follow the finance discussions, they point the way. Unless a big independent sees a gap to exploit, Modern will be as extended is, a pleasant memory.

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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

So are people pretty confident that Oko is getting banned? He's seemed strong but reasonable to me in Bant Snow Control. The cards from that deck that scream to me as too good are Astrolabe and Veil. I see Oko is being played a lot, though.
Modern
ubr Grixis Shadow ubr
uwg Bant Stoneblade uwg
gbr Jund gbr

Pioneer
urIzzet Phoenixur
rMono-Red Aggror
uwAzorius Controluw

Commander
bg Meren of Clan Nel Toth bg

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

Very confident. I want to play the card in literally every deck I play. Otherwise, I want to play one of the few decks that doesn't care about him all that much (and there are very few).

I hate to say this, but Bant Snow Control is a bad deck without Oko. I know it's a fun deck, but play it without Oko. You don't beat much. Every deck that can resolve their Oko, while countering their opponent's Oko, has a solid chance in this meta, no matter what else happens.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
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Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Yawmoth Chord, Uroza
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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

Yeah, I suspect Bant control just goes back to UW control. What about Bant Stoneblade, though? Ice-Fang Coatl and Noble Hierarch still go well with SFM.
Modern
ubr Grixis Shadow ubr
uwg Bant Stoneblade uwg
gbr Jund gbr

Pioneer
urIzzet Phoenixur
rMono-Red Aggror
uwAzorius Controluw

Commander
bg Meren of Clan Nel Toth bg

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

Wraithpk wrote:
1 year ago
Yeah, I suspect Bant control just goes back to UW control. What about Bant Stoneblade, though? Ice-Fang Coatl and Noble Hierarch still go well with SFM.
I thought that it was okay, but someone here pointed out to me that it is only a "deck" because of Oko, Thief of Crowns. After some considerable thought, I agreed with that person. Here's why.

There is a guy at my LGS that has been running Bant Snowblade for at least 2 months now and he's come up a bit short, despite being a pretty solid player. He has asked to borrow Okos from people, but has gotten only 1-2 at the most (I am using mine most of the time). He has done better when he had Okos or actually drew them. He seems convinced that the deck is going to be solid only with Oko, but not without. I talked with him for a bit because he's the only person I see still trying Stoneforge Mystic - a card I love but have yet to play other than a single tournament. (2-1-1 with UW)

But I digress. I'm talking more about Bant Snow Control, which I have seen in action and have been unimpressed. It has an amazing play in Oko and the rest is very reactive and dependent on what the opponent does or is doing. That's not a great place to be in Modern.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
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Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Yawmoth Chord, Uroza
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Limited - Will start when paper starts
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

@Mtgaaron
#UNBANTWIN in #MTG MODERN

Everyone should tweet directly to @mtgaaron whatever your nan/unban options are. There is no set ban/unban schedule anymore so we have to push the people in power harder to get the change we need now. Maybe we can get something done in January.

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Yeah, this is adsuming that there are enough people to get action.
There have always been about ten people on the mtgs thread, about five now, who want to play twin. There is more twin gauntlet talk than any standard thread. It was ever thus.

They have a bunch of data from players in the tens of thousands, and that guides everyone on design, marketing and unbans, whether we like it or not. At this point Modern attendance is not going to be helped by unbans, maybe bans but unless you are banning Pioneer not much then. Support for the format is the big thing governing attendance, and perception of the format a distant second, the quality of the format behind that.

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
There have always been about ten people on the mtgs thread, about five now, who want to play twin
There are also people like me who still remember how it was to play against Twin for 2 years and don't want it back.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

Maybe I didn't make my comment clear. Tweet whatever your opinion on bans/unbans are. They do not read our board, if we want to push for action, any action, we have to take our message to the people that matter. "Sqeaky wheel gets the grease" is the old adage.

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Yes, I get that.
Sadly my opinion is that they won't really go beyond the reams of often misinterpreted data in their hands.
I admire your sentiment though.

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
There have always been about ten people on the mtgs thread, about five now, who want to play twin
There are also people like me who still remember how it was to play against Twin for 2 years and don't want it back.
Yes, I am a fan of bans staying banned, if I am honest.. A suspension should also be available, a trial banning. Too late now to save the old cards. I don't want to see pod, bridge, twin or other key components back once they have been banned, I just wish that prior to bannings they suspend a card for six months, with provision for another six, on the understanding that it gets permanently banned or released at the end. A suspension gives fair information to all, and will be factored into price. A ban and then unban later or re ban is just unnecessarily disruptive. If those build around cards like Bridge, Twin etc. came back I would probably quit the format completely on a personal level. If they release stuff that has always been banned I don't have an issue, but ban should mean ban, and suspension should be the first thing they do, so that we all know where we stand.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
There have always been about ten people on the mtgs thread, about five now, who want to play twin
There are also people like me who still remember how it was to play against Twin for 2 years and don't want it back.
Boo hoo. I don't want to play against Tron, or Dredge, or Valakut, or any number of decks that require extremely narrow hate cards backed up by linear racing clocks in order to win. I would personally love to play against a crappy control deck whose main win condition is extremely easy to interact with and falls to pieces against traditional, main deck answers.

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Post by Ed06288 » 1 year ago

I'm okay with them unbanning banned cards. As long as they're not re-banning the same card every 6 months or something. I miss Twin too. But I'm wondering if it's time to bring back Birthing Pod instead.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

Ed06288 wrote:
1 year ago
I'm okay with them unbanning banned cards. As long as they're not re-banning the same card every 6 months or something. I miss Twin too. But I'm wondering if it's time to bring back Birthing Pod instead.
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Limited - Will start when paper starts
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
There have always been about ten people on the mtgs thread, about five now, who want to play twin
There are also people like me who still remember how it was to play against Twin for 2 years and don't want it back.
Boo hoo. I don't want to play against Tron, or Dredge, or Valakut, or any number of decks that require extremely narrow hate cards backed up by linear racing clocks in order to win. I would personally love to play against a crappy control deck whose main win condition is extremely easy to interact with and falls to pieces against traditional, main deck answers.
Me neither but I also don't want to play vs Twin for the exact same reason. Abrupt Decay is pretty narrow and drawing into a 2 card instant-win-combo seems pretty linear to me. The hypocrisy of Twin advocates is surreal. Despite all the talk about 'making the format more interactive etc' all you want is to sit at the other side of the spectrum. Twin vs Tron, Dredge, Valakut, Amulet, Urza all make for very uninteresting games. Players just playing solitaire and goldfishing hoping they kill faster than the oponent. Instead of being on the short end of the stick you want to be the one with advantage. That is what its all about and then you have the audacity to sell it as 'interactive and easily disruptable'.

The fact about Twin is that it didn't have clear bad matchups. I used to play GBx those days and it was a 50/50 matchup at best and I was the worst matchup.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Stop with this. You don't need abrupt decay in order to kill a 1/4, a 2/1, or counter/destroy/discard an enchantment. And if they have a counterspell backup, that means we're at least at turn 5 or 6+, during which nearly every other deck in Modern has already statistically ended the game.

We already know the backup plan is utterly horrid, given that the archetype basically completely disappeared from any meaningful competition for the past four years since the ban. So let's just stop with these endless, baseless, false representations and exaggerated myths and legends about a deck that apparently personally murdered your family. Good grief.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

I wanted twin to come back, but the fact that they immediately banned cat combo in pioneer means wotc does not really like this kind of gameplay. It's never coming back.
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Post by True-Name Nemesis » 1 year ago

MFW when Abrupt Decay, a general purpose permanent removal spell is somehow considered a narrow card when it's about Twin. :thinking:

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Abrupt decay is pretty narrow removal, regardless of what it is against. You can talk about broad removal but when that beefed up prime time is staring you in the face, Decay won't feel very broad. When that Jtms is fatesealing you it won't feel broad. It isn't extremely narrow, but it is not broad either.

Oblivion ring is broad, although it can't do lands it does most of the board. Sadly it is a sorcery speed card for twin discussion, but it would be close to broad. Beast within is broad removal, although not one for one. Cast out is broad. Vindicate would be if it were legal.


Cards that say 'destroy/exile target creature' feel pretty narrow when you are playing against regular Tron. You can't path Karn or Ugin. This is why answers need to be a bit better, there are no wrong questions and all that.



Broad one for one removal costs 3 in Modern at sorcery speed. Two if you include Assassin's trophy, although it is not quite one for one and two colours to boot.

I don't think it has anything to do with Twin discussion, apart from the fact that in order to justify reinstating the deck some make argument that its ok to ask every deck to pack instant speed creature removal or abrupt decay.

I am not especially interested in that discussion, but I have been campaigning for better broader answers-including killing lands, for a while.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

I know people are tired of me saying so, but I don't buy that BGx was only 50% vs. Twin decks. I guess it's possible that it's the case, but then I am completely stupid for not just playing Twin at my LGS. My LGS had too much BGx and a bit of Grixis Control, so running Twin would have had its consequences too if you hit the wrong matchup.

I had no problem running UR Eldrazi with Eye of Ugin. I had no problem running Hogaak in Hogaak decks (pre Bridge ban and post Bridge ban). Those were Tier 0 decks that had no poor matchups that were also viable in the meta. Twin was merely a Tier 1 deck and the best thing to be doing by just a bit. People could hedge against that fact and shut them down if they really wanted to. It's not unlike any other Modern deck (like Tron for example, which people refuse to play ultra quick combo, aggro, or even gobs of Tron hate).

For Christ's sake, there were 2 colorless answers to Twin - Dismember and Spellskite. Do they beat Twin by themselves? Hell no, but it's a start to not getting utterly slaughtered every match. It bothers me a bit to see some people say that Twin was very beatable, but it definitely bothers me infinitely more to hear that Twin was Tier 0 and unbeatable. I played decks that naturally lose to Twin and I won at least 50% of my matches against Twin. (Don't you dare ask me what percentage of my matches vs. Infect is!)
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - MBA, UB Inverter
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Yawmoth Chord, Uroza
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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