[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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drmarkb
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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

We need a 2 mana
Null Rod, for walkers.
Whilst we are at it
Cursed Totem as it is too,
I am sick of this "can't remove 4cc cards with 2 cc cards" and "people have to get an activation before it gets nerfed" nonsense. Its balls. You build a deck with too many of one type of permanent and one card kills it? Tough. Build a deck which does not have all its win cons in one type. You can push Okos and their ilk a lot more if you have some hard, hateful safety valves.

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

Amalgam wrote:
1 year ago
What is your point? You can bring up the rest of the challenge events for the last month and build a spread if you want to get a more accurate picture of the metagame. You can't just pick and choose data that meets your own agenda.
A good deck is allowed to win a tournament and it certainty isn't even close to even winning a solid amount either at the moment. Heck the last challenge before this one was won by bant stoneblade running a full creature package, the one before that was won by Death's Shadow.

Also veil/Oko are for sure the strongest thing you can be doing in modern right now. However also I feel the format will become less interactive with it's removal. At least right now you have decks like Bant Control/Snowblade, spirits, humans etc getting to exist.
It's a really hard thing to workout where the meta would head if they removed these two cards and I'm unsure it would be for the better even if they are blatantly overpowered
My point is, people talking since some weeks urza doesnt even win on mtgo. Seems this is wrong too. Busted in paper, very good on mtgo

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

100%

Its why I still believe Search for Azcanta is the best card they have printed from a design perspective in quite literally years.

1. It does NOTHING the turn it comes down. You get no instant value.
2. Its effect is slow if played in the 2nd turn, you get to look at one card, and smooth your draw. This is what Blue should be doing.
3. It can be answered. On the stack, disenchanted, or prevented from flipping.
4. If it DOES flip, it again does nothing but tap for Blue, without further investment.

That said, you leave it, or cannot answer it at that point? Consistent value from that point forward, if the player using it can work with the cost.

It still requires deck building constraints, but it can be answered in any number of ways, and it favours longer, interactive games while doing nothing broken.

Easily one of the last best designs Wizards has printed.
UR Control UR

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Post by Trazaeth » 1 year ago

drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
We need a 2 mana
Null Rod, for walkers.
Whilst we are at it
Cursed Totem as it is too,
I am sick of this "can't remove 4cc cards with 2 cc cards" and "people have to get an activation before it gets nerfed" nonsense. Its balls. You build a deck with too many of one type of permanent and one card kills it? Tough. Build a deck which does not have all its win cons in one type. You can push Okos and their ilk a lot more if you have some hard, hateful safety valves.
This is extremely accurate. The lack of good answers and removal is essentially why cards can steamroll an entire format in modern more easily. Coincidentally, since good hate hasn't been printed for planeswalkers, even legacy is having issues with Oko.

To agree and disagree with twin talk from a few pages ago. Twin would not be safe in an environment with Veil of Summer legal. Ya'll crazy to think that there wouldn't just be a Temur Twin list wrecking thigns. If we're talking about just UR yeah twin is fine in this environment. But giving twin 1 mana cryptic with its ability to tap permanents, remand and generally just tempo out a game. That is just asking for it to get banned again.

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
metalmusic_4 wrote:
1 year ago
***serious question****

Now that the B&R announcement has no set date, do we need to be more or less aggressive with our rhetoric?

Should we be more aggressive all the time to promote action promptly, whether bans or unbans, or should we just be less aggressive because there is not a set schedule to focus rage out (implying if we dont raise our voices together we are less likely to be heard, so we have to become more accepting.).
Very much more aggressive.

I mean Oko AND Veil are still legal. This format is untouchable until both are gone.
Add Emry and Lattice and I will play Modern again if possible.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Trazaeth wrote:
1 year ago
To agree and disagree with twin talk from a few pages ago. Twin would not be safe in an environment with Veil of Summer legal. Ya'll crazy to think that there wouldn't just be a Temur Twin list wrecking thigns. If we're talking about just UR yeah twin is fine in this environment. But giving twin 1 mana cryptic with its ability to tap permanents, remand and generally just tempo out a game. That is just asking for it to get banned again.
Veil in no way shape or form should exist in MAGIC, let alone Modern. No consideration should be given to what decks would look like with it present in the format, as it should not be here. :p
UR Control UR

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
metalmusic_4 wrote:
1 year ago
***serious question****

Now that the B&R announcement has no set date, do we need to be more or less aggressive with our rhetoric?

Should we be more aggressive all the time to promote action promptly, whether bans or unbans, or should we just be less aggressive because there is not a set schedule to focus rage out (implying if we dont raise our voices together we are less likely to be heard, so we have to become more accepting.).
Very much more aggressive.

I mean Oko AND Veil are still legal. This format is untouchable until both are gone.
Add Emry and Lattice and I will play Modern again if possible.
While I admit that it would be nice, the first 2 of a LOT more concern right now. And by saying that, I mean that WotC shouldn't really try to ban any more than 2 cards at any announcement because lesser cards need to have a "chance" in a "different" field.

Regarding Temur Twin, idSurge said it better than I did. There should be no consideration with Veil of Summer. I had to try to convince some of my friends that it was not okay for freaking Legacy. They didn't want to believe me. I told them how stupid counterspell stack magic was with the card. I mean it already got stupid at times (I personally enjoyed it), but now it's like that times 2. "Force of Will you, Veil of Summer, Force of Will you, Spell Pierce, Wasteland in response fetch, Daze, Red Elemental Blast, Veil, Force, Veil, Red Elemental Blast, Snapcaster Mage..."
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
Well you need to name a better format to convince me.
Most games of Legacy are just "cards I own" while following a ban list. On a casual level Legacy is a hell of a lot of fun. You can play what you want, and the card pool is deep enough that you can usually have a reasonable sideboard. At the tournament level it's a lot less fun. And as a format that gets PT focus, I believe it would require at least 30 to 50 cards banned because it's just that broken.

I dislike this because I really wish I could play Legacy at more tournaments. The deck I usually play (Nic Fit) would likely see huge gains as well because a lot of the cards that are problematic in Legacy are the consistency engines and a few of the cards that lead to too fast of wins (the force check decks).

I think that until recently I would argue that Modern was the healthiest constructed format because it had variety and nothing was drastically overpowered. The last year of cards has changed that though, and we're in a world where all constructed formats are unhealthy, with the possible exception of EDH. So, over the past few years I would say Modern is better than Legacy, but over the past couple months I would give it to Pioneer, only because the meta has been in such flux between the newness and the bans that it hasn't had time to settle and reveal it's toxicity.
idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
100%

Its why I still believe Search for Azcanta is the best card they have printed from a design perspective in quite literally years.

1. It does NOTHING the turn it comes down. You get no instant value.
2. Its effect is slow if played in the 2nd turn, you get to look at one card, and smooth your draw. This is what Blue should be doing.
3. It can be answered. On the stack, disenchanted, or prevented from flipping.
4. If it DOES flip, it again does nothing but tap for Blue, without further investment.

That said, you leave it, or cannot answer it at that point? Consistent value from that point forward, if the player using it can work with the cost.

It still requires deck building constraints, but it can be answered in any number of ways, and it favours longer, interactive games while doing nothing broken.

Easily one of the last best designs Wizards has printed.
Design and power level need to be separated. I do agree that Azcanta is designed well, and was placed at a power level where we can have fun with it, but I think there's plenty of other good designs out there. Gilded Goose is great in my opinion, and while this will be unpopular I also think that Once Upon A Time was a very good design. Other designs that I've thought were good, just to take some from recent top lists: Drown in the Loch, Plague Engineer, Ice Fang Coatl, Sai, and Prismatic Vista.


Also, I've been thinking about this a bit. I'm still not convinced that Oko or Veil of Summer need a ban though I can certainly admit they're strong.

The only card that I think absolutely 100% needs a ban right now is Astrolabe. That said, I enjoy playing Oko but I don't think I would be too upset to see it banned because it's a very unfun card. And I can admit that my opinion towards the card is possibly flawed. I've been watching it climb on mtgtop8 and it's now the most played threat in the format at 23.4% of decks and 3.1 copies per deck on average and the second most played card in the format (only behind Polluted Delta by a small margin). The next few highest ranking threats are:
Karn the Great Creator - 15.6% 3.7
Walking Ballista - 15.4% 2.0
Snapcaster Mage - 15% 3.0
Death's Shadow - 10.2% 4.0
Thought Knot Seer - 10% 3.9

By the numbers, I can definitely admit that Oko is alarmingly high. It is the only threat currently being played that is more prevalent than answers but I'm not sure if that is a good enough reason to ban it as the top decks in tournaments are still appearing to be fairly diverse.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

metalmusic_4 wrote:
1 year ago
***serious question****

Now that the B&R announcement has no set date, do we need to be more or less aggressive with our rhetoric?

Should we be more aggressive all the time to promote action promptly, whether bans or unbans, or should we just be less aggressive because there is not a set schedule to focus rage out (implying if we dont raise our voices together we are less likely to be heard, so we have to become more accepting.).
I think that people should be less aggressive. When people are always making noise, the signal to noise ratio makes it hard to make strong arguments to Wizards when it's warranted. But, this is an issue regardless of B&R update schedules. I suspect that people will simply be more aggressive. Ban mania talk is going to get much, much worse due to this. Especially if like I suspect, they're doing this in order to get ahead of problematic cards that they know are coming out in 2020 due to a continuation of 2019 design philosophy.

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

My list and scores, historically, excluding can lander, old school, vintage and pre modern.

Legacy 8-9/10
historically my only issues are when they make cards like astrolabe and drs that homogenise. They desperately need to make non blue stuff that cannot be placed in a force xerox shell.

Extended 5-7/10
This was a great format at its peak, up until they allowed duals to live longer and not rotate with the rest. That felt awful. But there was diversity, Trix was an issue.

Modern
4-7/10
There never was a golden age. The pod era was awful, the twin era not much better (not because of those decks), the early days exciting but totally flawed. Matches were always stupidly lopsided, from the days of soul sisters or martyr proc vs burn and infect vs tron. Odd bannings never helped, and the absence of a watch list make the format a permanent brown shower. I like it, but there are more lopsided matches than you can shake a stick at. Poor selection and the need to hate so much make for a format where the result is too often known as soon as the deck choices. Still I enjoy the format because it has been fun to beat Tron decks by eating their lands turn after turn and to lock a storm deck out with hatebears. One sided matches are not an issue for me when the one sided match is the result of one player playing unfair Mtg and they are one sided in my favour. I know, hypocritical.

Block 2-4/10
Never an interesting moment, some blocks are better but all solved and full of parasitical mechanics. Still they start interesting.

Standard 0-6/10
At its peak standard was probably at best a 6/10. Most of that was pre internet. I did like the idea of forcing cards from each relevant expansion, maybe that is a way forward. Shame the set they forced was Homelands, which had one playable card.

I never played vintage.

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Post by Simto » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
100%

Its why I still believe Search for Azcanta is the best card they have printed from a design perspective in quite literally years.

1. It does NOTHING the turn it comes down. You get no instant value.
2. Its effect is slow if played in the 2nd turn, you get to look at one card, and smooth your draw. This is what Blue should be doing.
3. It can be answered. On the stack, disenchanted, or prevented from flipping.
4. If it DOES flip, it again does nothing but tap for Blue, without further investment.

That said, you leave it, or cannot answer it at that point? Consistent value from that point forward, if the player using it can work with the cost.

It still requires deck building constraints, but it can be answered in any number of ways, and it favours longer, interactive games while doing nothing broken.

Easily one of the last best designs Wizards has printed.
Can't tell you how much I love that card hehe. Very accurate description.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

OP updated with new B&R info. Sorry for the delay.

Here's our updated MTGO metagame picture with a Challenge and Preliminary added:
  1. Eldrazi Tron: 13.6% (n=74)
  2. Grixis Death's Shadow: 7.1% (n=39)
  3. Amulet Titan: 6.4% (n=35)
  4. Sultai Urza: 5.9% (n=32)
  5. Burn: 5.7% (n=31)
  6. Sultai Death's Shadow: 4.8% (n=26)
  7. Infect: 4.4% (n=24)
  8. Bant Snow Control: 4% (n=22)
  9. Dredge: 3.8% (n=21)
  10. Mono R Prowess: 3.8% (n=21)
  11. Humans: 3.7% (n=20)
  12. Jund: 2.9% (n=16)
  13. Mono G Tron: 2.4% (n=13)
  14. Simic Eldrazi: 2.2% (n=12)
  15. Paradoxical Urza: 2.2% (n=12)
  16. CrabVine: 2.2% (n=12)
  17. Gifts Storm: 2.2% (n=12)
  18. Titanshift: 2% (n=11)
We're seeing an interesting thing in the last week with Oko variants empowering a variety of new UGx interactive strategies. On the one hand, it looks really hard to play non-Oko interactive strategies right now. Azorius Control is gone from the top 80% of the format with few showings in weeks. BGx is having similar struggles and is mostly propped up by October and November results (12 of its 16 results) before Oko got "discovered." Meanwhile, Bant Snow variants are steadily climbing up the rankings to replace BGx. I'm not sure how I feel about this because, on the one hand, Oko decks do appear to be viable strategies which promote interaction. But on the other hand, they seem to be pushing out non-Oko strategies. We'll need more data to see how Oko settles in this new metagame.

My nerf ban suggestions largely hold at this point. Veil, Lattice, Claim/FoV, and maybe Oko will nerf a swath of top strategies while not significantly impacting their core identity. Trimming these decks at the margins, particularly in their G2/G3 options, should open up other decks to creep up the rankings.
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010

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Post by Ed06288 » 1 year ago

Not sure why we think a repeatable +1 beast within is okay. In larger tournaments, 50% of top 32's are Oko decks. It's hard to beat these decks even with stuff like tron and valakut as oko can turn wurmcoils and primevals into 3/3's. The cryptic loop with mystic sanctuary is annoying too. I'm also getting tired of Karn the great creator but he's less of an issue right now.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

I just wish there was any remote semblance of consistency and communication of rules and expectations for the format. I would have no issue dropping the ridiculous cash to get Okos, Urzas, Opals or whatever if I had any confidence they are safe and acceptable for Modern.

Because ever since Twin, I have effectively not bought into any deck that I felt had a high likelihood of being banned. Joke's on me when years go by and they remain untouched while I'm still over here middling with awful, interactive blue decks. "This will be playable again some day!" "Those other things will be banned soon!" I keep telling myself. And month after month, year after year.

Would be nice to have any meaningful understanding of what Wizards *actually* wants for the format, instead of a bunch of disconnected lip service from people who have no fundamental understanding of this format. With fewer paper events, less data, the shift to Pioneer, and now the total random guesses as to when B&R announcements will ever happen, I am extremely pessimistic about the future of Modern.

The ultimate irony is that the deck I currently enjoy the most (Sultai Shadow), I can't play in paper without spending several hundred dollars on Okos, Goyfs, the set of green fetches and shocks, and other random expensive green staples

Merry Magic Christmas to all.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

Yes, Modern is an Elk.

I disagree with some of the ratings of different formats than drmarkb. I have felt Legacy and Modern at an at least 9 rating before. There were times when I loved Modern. Even when Sword of the Meek was banned and Rite of Flame was legal, I enjoyed Modern. And I think Legacy, short of banning Oko and Veil, would be pretty good right now. Banning Wrenn and Six was a great move!

As for currently, this is how I'm rating formats.
Legacy - 7
Modern - 6
Pioneer - 5
Standard -4

I am a bit biased toward Modern though, as I have 2 decks that I love playing currently - Amulet and Elementals. (Elementals has 10 cards for Urza/Oko based decks in the SB with an already slightly favored matchup preboard)
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
New modern Preliminary: https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... 2019-12-25

12/16 decks are running Oko, Thief of crowns. This is quickly getting out of hand.

There is even a new Primeval Titan deck that is abandoning Amulet and going with 4 Oko, 3 Field of the dead and quicker ramp. This deck is poised to just obliterate fair control and midrange decks. Another headache for them I suppose.

Oko is a real problem. It's empowering not only fair, but unfair decks also and really unifying more than 40% of the metagame, maybe close to 50.
Wow i just checked out those results. Oko is everywhere in urza, snow decks and others. The primeval titan deck with oko instead of amulet did better than any other titan deck, either amulet titan or valakut.

I've been pushing for an urza ban, but oko may be the right call instead. There is certainly more that needs to happen, #unbantwin #unbanbridge, but something needs to happen soon.

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Post by Ed06288 » 1 year ago

Urza combo is not a problem. It was formerly just a 3 card combo. Yes it was hard to interact with in the late game but it still had weaknesses and bad matchcups.

Reddit seems to think Oko is not a problem but I think that is ridiculous. It's not as bad Hogaak or Eye of Ugin. Maybe we can compare it to treasure cruise. It's also invasive, with even decks like infect sideboarding it.

Mox opal and Goose let Oko and Karn come down early and the games get ugly very quickly. Their loyalty is quickly out of bolt range and when you try to turn the corner they counter your stuff and continue to pressure you with elks.

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Post by Ed06288 » 1 year ago

@ cfusionpm
Blue/White control seemed fine for most of 2018 and 2019. Up until Hogaak and Oko came along. Jund looks bad too right now.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

Figured I would pop onto mtgtop8 and put the current rates that Oko is seeing play into context, in light of my comment yesterday that it's now the most played threat in the format.

Previous 2 weeks - .9238 copies
Previous 2 months - .7285 copies
Previous 2 months (major events) - 1.2342 copies
Previous 2 months (live tournaments) - .7936 copies

Now, lets look at the top few threats in various other decks in Modern, year by year.
2011
Tarmogoyf - 1.132 copies
Kitchen Finks - .688 copies

2012
Tarmogoyf - .9633 copies
Snapcaster Mage - .828 copies
Kitchen Finks - .744 copies

2013
Deathrite Shaman - 1.11 copies
Snapcaster Mage - .8 copies
Tarmogoyf - .8619 copies

2014
Snapcaster Mage - .9856 copies

2015
Snapcaster Mage - .8877 copies

2016
Tarmogoyf - .518 copies

2017
Snapcaster Mage - .6358 copies

2018
Snapcaster Mage - .5632 copies

Some years I only listed one card, because that was the most common threat and everything else was significantly less. Other years had several good threats at once. Anyways, I figured this would be good for context. Oko currently is sitting at about the same amount of appearances per deck across the format as Tarmogoyf was at it's peak. From a numbers standpoint that's a bit concerning as Jund was the main driver of those Goyf appearances and it resulted in multiple bannings.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Snapcaster Mage is not a "threat", as much as it is a spell utility that can sometimes attack or block in a pinch. Calling it a "threat" is super generous.

But the comparisons to Oko are very interesting....

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Yes, snappy is no more a threat than a bolt.
Still it is interesting, the point is taken.
Of course some decks may one just one searchable copy of a win con, like Emrakul in Tron, which will skew the figures in favour of four ofs like Oko and Goyf.

Personally I would keep Oko, and print some real hate for walkers.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

People have named multiple cards as potential ban targets for the urza/oko decks. I have mainly advocated to ban urza and "another card" from the urza deck. Let's face it that there are several ban targets, with oko being possibly the #1 target.

Possible ban targets for urza/oko decks:
#1 oko
#2 urza
#3 mox opal
#4 astrolabe
#5 emry
#6 veil of summer
#7 lattice

Other top decks have caused multiple bans. (List may not be perfect)
Jund → BBE, DRS
Zoo → punishing fire, wild nacatle
Hogaak → Bridge, hogaak, looting
UR delver/jeskia ascendancy → DTT, TC
Twin → only twin but cards overlapped with other decks like storm
Eldrazi → only eye of ugin but strongly considered eldrazi temple.
Pod → only pod to keep from banning many others.
Storm → effectivly the original storm deck is all banned but many of the cards overlapped with other decks like twin and others. ponder, Preordain, probe, song, rite of flame and more.


I don't think it is unreasonable if we saw 2-3 cards banned in the next announcement based on history and the powerful list of targets being used right now. Maybe oko and astrolabe, maybe one more?

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Post by Albegas » 1 year ago

I'll admit that I haven't been playing a lot recently, but as far as I can tell, if Urza decks have to be hit, it's either Urza or Oko. Oko seems to push Urza decks to where they are now, and hitting Oko would likely knock it back just enough pegs to be playable but not the undisputed best deck.

On the other hand, Urza decks unto themselves seem to be rather flexible. Just looking at where it's been since Hogaak, we've seen Grixis builds, Paradox builds, Ascendancy builds and now Sultai builds. If I'm Wizards, I would be concerned about having to revisit Urza decks again due to being too conservative, especially after the Hogaak debacle.

I doubt that both will get hit at the same time (if at all). Rather, I would imagine that Wizards would want to see the meta without one before judging the other.

Oh yeah, ban Veil :p

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

If Urza decks are a problem, they were a problem before Oko. At that point it was already the best deck. The question is, was it too good at that point?

And the other question, if Urza were banned, since it's the top Oko deck, would Oko still be too good at that point?

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

The meta has also changed considerably since then is the thing. Just because a deck is strong is good in one meta doesn't mean that it is good in another. Compare the meta of today and the one during the Hoggak era. They are considerably different

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