[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

Mtgthewary
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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

Tzoulis wrote:
1 year ago
Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
Why it's so good? Maybe in legacy where everyone plays blue, but maybe less in modern?
In a format where the best generalized solutions are in Black (Decay, Trophy, Seize) and most combo decks are also weak to countermagic, then yes, Veil is too good for 1 mana.
Not veil, I ment red elemental blast, beb etc...

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Post by pierreb » 1 year ago

Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago
What makes REB/BEB so powerful isn't that they're a 1 for 1, it's that they can answer literally anything of the opposing color.
You have up to 4 of them. Use them wisely.

If one had access to dozens of them, I'd agree. I still think a format is better when you have access to a reasonable number of efficient and flexible answers. A format sucks when a strategy wins just because answers to its threats are few and solely SB material (giving them a ridiculous game-1 advantage).

Most people agree that the most entertaining magic to play and watch is an attrition war where you need to maneuver carefully and manage your answers.

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
I couldn't have said it better, and I'm not sure why ITA thanked this post. This again points to the patent factual inaccuracies behind the outrageous claim that Emry was designed to hurt Modern. This refutes your point, not supports it.
Its because I am not blind to facts. If someone proves I am wrong I am fine with that and will thank the person for that. They aren't deliberately making cards to hurt the state of Modern, its incompetence like entirety of Magic 2019 has been. However I still stand by my statements that they do want to hurt Modern because of the other reasons I stated.

Today I sold my Oko's. I play them in Legacy but I am just afraid they will get banned in Modern too and tank a lot more in value. The more I play with and against this card the more I am convinced he will get banned because the play patterns it creates are extremely unfun and toxic. Turn 2 Oko is the best thing you can do right now in Modern and I don't see that change and its extremely hard to answer that opening because Abrupt Decay doesn't see any play and if it would then we have Veil of Summer.

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Post by Yawgmoth » 1 year ago

pierreb wrote:
1 year ago
Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago

Lots of hate like this can be printed, but it's really hard to hit the line where the card is playable, but not too good. Red/Blue Elemental Blast is too good, Pyroblast is too (and out of color pie).
I would not consider a 1-for-1 too good.

As REB flavor text says, when a color hates another, it should be able to go beyond what it is normally capable of.
Exactly. It's way different than something like Assasin's Trophy, Path to Exile, or even Cryptic Command/Counterspell.

Those cards can all be played mainboard because they don't care what color they are targeting. A color-conditional 1-for-1 can only ever be so good because it is completely dead against the majority of the field. It has fairness built in. REB is a terrible G1 main deck choice in any meta.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

Yawgmoth wrote:
1 year ago
pierreb wrote:
1 year ago
Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago

Lots of hate like this can be printed, but it's really hard to hit the line where the card is playable, but not too good. Red/Blue Elemental Blast is too good, Pyroblast is too (and out of color pie).
I would not consider a 1-for-1 too good.

As REB flavor text says, when a color hates another, it should be able to go beyond what it is normally capable of.
Exactly. It's way different than something like Assasin's Trophy, Path to Exile, or even Cryptic Command/Counterspell.

Those cards can all be played mainboard because they don't care what color they are targeting. A color-conditional 1-for-1 can only ever be so good because it is completely dead against the majority of the field. It has fairness built in. REB is a terrible G1 main deck choice in any meta.
Unless of course, you're playing Painter's Servant in which case you would have REB and the new 1 mana mana leak.

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Post by Yawgmoth » 1 year ago

Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago
Unless of course, you're playing Painter's Servant in which case you would have REB and the new 1 mana mana leak.
I'm currently more worried about Okos and Urzas. If Painter's Servant became a Modern deck which abuses elemental blasts it would be an obvious target for a ban, but I think it's sort of a straw man argument (see what I did there?). You are suggesting that we cannot print a card to deal with a number of real threats which are dominating the format because it might be abused in some future shell of a deck which does not even exist in Modern. With that logic we would never print anything because it might be broken in the future.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

Yawgmoth wrote:
1 year ago
Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago
Unless of course, you're playing Painter's Servant in which case you would have REB and the new 1 mana mana leak.
I'm currently more worried about Okos and Urzas. If Painter's Servant became a Modern deck which abuses elemental blasts it would be an obvious target for a ban, but I think it's sort of a straw man argument (see what I did there?). You are suggesting that we cannot print a card to deal with a number of real threats which are dominating the format because it might be abused in some future shell of a deck which does not even exist in Modern. With that logic we would never print anything because it might be broken in the future.
No, I'm saying that Wizards would absolutely not add that card to the format. The card goes against everything they want in Magic design these days. It trades too efficiently, it's out of the color pie, and it misrepresents ally/enemy colors (in REBs case it doesn't also hit white cards), I also don't think it would fix things to anywhere near the extent you think it would because it does absolutely nothing to address the fact that red still can't reasonably answer whatever the next non blue high loyalty PW is, or a 5+ toughness non blue creature.

Edit: To expand on this, the problem red has is that Lightning Bolt is no longer a reasonable card. Yes, it's still one of the most played cards in the format but almost every single creature and planeswalker in the format that sees play right now passes the bolt test. The card is not what it was when the format released and I think that Wizards is simply costing burn spells incorrectly, which is preventing new good ones from entering the effective card pool for Modern. Their current costing is a fairly simple formula if it hits creatures; The card is worth 1 damage, and then each point of mana is worth an additional damage, and a color restriction is worth 2 damage. This means, a generic 5 damage card gets costed at 4 mana, a 4 damage at 3 mana which is probably 1 mana too high.

But, should Wizards fix that, we'll again be in an arms race of making creatures pass the new bolt test for value.

This all comes back to a fundamental issue in the current design philosophy of the game.

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Post by Yawgmoth » 1 year ago

[mention]Aazadan[/mention] I generally agree with your rationale. My idea is that asking for something material which already exists is better than saying "we need better responses" or "card X is overpowered." (I'm not accusing you of doing this, just giving my logic.)

REB is a card that exists and that has a known cost/benefit. Maybe we as players say we want something like REB but not breaking the color pie. I like to try to think of what the solution for modern looks like; I do not think it is bans.

Modern definitely needs something to deal with bigger creatures/planeswalkers. Something between Path and Dismember that can hit planeswalkers. There haven't been any decent threats printed in a while but the number and type of threats has changed dramatically in the past year. What can fix this in a sustainable fashion?
Last edited by Yawgmoth 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

Well, in the case of answers to planeswalkers, I think one large hole at the moment is that there's no instant 2 mana spells to kill planeswalkers. They're all either sorcery, or 3 mana, with the exception of burn spells that don't do enough damage to actually kill anything unless the PW downticks.

Other than that though, I think we wind up at the previously stated issue. Most threats in the format now pass the bolt test in some form. So if they make a better bolt, we're back to the old problem which is that players see their threats die before they can be used, and that forces Wizards to then make the threats better. This isn't a good cycle to be stuck in.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

Well, in the case of answers to planeswalkers, I think one large hole at the moment is that there's no instant 2 mana spells to kill planeswalkers
[mention]Aazadan[/mention]

noxious grasp is instant and 2 cmc. Kills both Oko and T3feri. But can't kill Karn.

______________________________________

On other things. I'm still deliberating whether to buy an Oko or not, seems like the only question is when this guy will be banned. Not if.
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
Well, in the case of answers to planeswalkers, I think one large hole at the moment is that there's no instant 2 mana spells to kill planeswalkers
Aazadan

noxious grasp is instant and 2 cmc. Kills both Oko and T3feri. But can't kill Karn.

______________________________________

On other things. I'm still deliberating whether to buy an Oko or not, seems like the only question is when this guy will be banned. Not if.
Yeah, Noxious Grasp is the start to the kind of answers that we need for Planeswalkers (even before the War of the Spark and beyond debacle). I think there needs to be some more universal answers though, possibly some sort of Charm that has kill a Planeswalker as one of the modes?

I've been seeing a lot of stuff about Oko and I feel that he will meet his demise in Modern some time around January/February when Modern picks up a bit. Then WotC will try to clean up a few things...
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - MBA, UB Inverter
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Yawmoth Chord, Uroza
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by MashedPotato » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
Yeah, Noxious Grasp is the start to the kind of answers that we need for Planeswalkers (even before the War of the Spark and beyond debacle). I think there needs to be some more universal answers though, possibly some sort of Charm that has kill a Planeswalker as one of the modes?
Noxious grasp is nice, but i agree in a more universal answer being provided.
Most planewalker removal is black and at worst Rakdos, if you don't have those colours, what answer is there out there.

Hoping Veil of Summer eats a ban though, its crippled the tradional Control archtype colours. Bant / Sultai seem like its feasable, but running Veil themselves. Its far to efficent at its cost for what it offers, its a Cryptic on steroids.

Hanging for the new year and what it brings for the game.
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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Veil stops Legacy's premier removal spell, abrupt decay, and storms' tendrils win con.
Most decks run blue, but depths/loam decks run discard and decays, leaving just d n t, goblins, and colourless decks unaffected. Even green decks like Elves run decays or thoughtseizes normally. Many blood moon stompy decks have left the meta due to astrolabe.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

[mention]FoodChainGoblins[/mention]

yeah, maybe Oko is not long for this format. I decided not to buy any.. because have only barely recovered from goyf financial loss.. by selling some other cards to edh players... don't want to be in a mess again with Oko.

On the topic on answer to walkers. Perhaps they will print more someday. :)
Currently my method of dealing with enemy walkers are detention sphere, cavalier of dawn, and attacking the walker with manlands.

[mention]MashedPotato[/mention]

ah, so veil of summer is still legal here?! I'm kind of getting confused with all these bans.
Realized today that veil was banned in pioneer and not modern. ehehe ><
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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Updated to include the MTGO Preliminaries and a new Challenge. The Prelims are nice because they are uncurated 3-2 or better dumps. The bar to reach 3-2 in a Prelim isn't as high as reaching T32 in a Challenge, but it's still a winning record, and it still helps us approximate the "True" MTGO metagame better than deliberately curated Leagues. Also, the Prelim picture is not significantly different than the Challenge/PTQ/Premier/etc. picture, so I'm comfortable aggregating them. Here are the Tier 1 and Tier 2 decks in the N=492 sample:
  1. Eldrazi Tron: 13.8% (n=68)
  2. Grixis Death's Shadow: 7.5% (n=37)
  3. Amulet Titan: 6.7% (n=33)
  4. Burn: 6.3% (n=31)
  5. Sultai Urza: 5.5% (n=27)
  6. Sultai Death's Shadow: 5.1% (n=25)
  7. Infect: 4.9% (n=24)
  8. Dredge: 4.1% (n=20)
  9. Humans: 3.7% (n=18)
  10. Mono R Prowess: 3.4% (n=17)
  11. Jund: 3.2% (n=16)
  12. Bant Snow Control: 3.2% (n=16)
  13. Paradoxical Urza: 2.4% (n=12)
  14. Mono G Tron: 2.4% (n=12)
  15. Gifts Storm: 2.4% (n=12)
  16. CrabVine: 2.2% (n=11)
  17. Simic Eldrazi: 2% (n=10)
  18. Azorius Control: 1.8% (n=9)
  19. Devoted Devastation: 1.6% (n=8)
  20. 4C Whirza: 1.6% (n=8)
And here's the macro-archetypes:

Linear aggro/combo: 34.1% (Burn, Infect, Dredge, Humans, Prowess, Storm, CrabVine, Devoted Dev)
Big mana: 27.3% (E Tron, G Tron, Amulet)
DS variants: 15% (Grixis, Sultai)
Traditional interactive: 12.3% (Jund, Bant Snow, Simic Eldrazi, Azorius)
Urza variants: 11.4% (Sultai, Paradoxical, 4C)

This supports our general understanding of Modern. It's super diverse from a deck perspective, but if you want to play more traditional, interactive decks, you have very few viable options. Calling Simic Eldrazi "traditionally interactive" is also a huge stretch, but lists actually have a fair amount of protect-the-queen style interaction. I'm open to moving it to the aggro category, in which case subtract 2% from one and add 2% to the other.

Lastly, I'm refining the interactivity score and will probably roll that out here before releasing it in an article. I think this is a critical metric that will actually allow us to quantify some of the feelings we have about various formats. As for Modern generally, I'll emphasize that generic answers and PW removal are insufficient at this point to save Modern. Nor are any number of radical banlist changes. The single most important thing Wizards can do to keep Modern going is to announce that it will eventually be on Arena. Without that, it will continue to die out and be replaced by Pioneer. I suspect Wizards wants this to happen and wants Pioneer to be the "Modern of the future," so I don't think we'll see Modern on Arena even if they are capable of doing so.
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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
The single most important thing Wizards can do to keep Modern going is to announce that it will eventually be on Arena. Without that, it will continue to die out and be replaced by Pioneer. I suspect Wizards wants this to happen and wants Pioneer to be the "Modern of the future," so I don't think we'll see Modern on Arena even if they are capable of doing so.
I don't think they'll pass up the opportunity to sell a bunch of additional cards, assuming they can financially justify adding the sets. But, I do think we're going to see Pioneer replace Modern as the PT format after 2020. It probably all depends on how long it takes them to get Pioneer onto Arena.

Long term, I see them treating Modern on Arena the way Legacy/Vintage was treated on MTGO.

Also, worth noting, the shop closest to where I live has now failed to fire for Modern for 5 weeks in a row, the attendances of those weeks were 6, 4, 2, 4, and 2 players. 2 years ago it was getting 20+ for Modern for reference, and this is in a community with very invested players who all have extensive collections and can play basically anything at any time.

Looking forward to what you came up with for an interactivity score.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Of all the people that generally contribute to conversation here, how often do you all play? Especially in paper?

I have found myself playing a bit online, but looking back at my DCI number tracking, I have played almost nothing in paper (and each of my experiences in paper did nothing to motivate me to continue). I played once in July, twice in August, not at all in September, once each in October and November, and none in December. While I play several matches, fairly frequently on MTGO (or at least when I find time), I find the experience considerably less demoralizing and depressing, especially when horrid, unsatisfying games can be remedied immediately with another match and another try, instead of hours of waiting, followed by a long car ride home in the middle of the night.

Curious how many of you feel based on how you play in paper; especially if that is your primary or only way to play.

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Post by Yawgmoth » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Lastly, I'm refining the interactivity score and will probably roll that out here before releasing it in an article. I think this is a critical metric that will actually allow us to quantify some of the feelings we have about various formats...

...The single most important thing Wizards can do to keep Modern going is to announce that it will eventually be on Arena.
Very interested in the interactivity metric. I played around some with a interactivity v. Fairness model based on some of the earlier discussion. Once we define the two metrics, I prepose we create a Likert-style questionnaire to poll the community on how they rate the top 10 decks in the format. Please let me know when you come up with metric, I'd be happy to start designing a questionnaire and model.

We can then relate this with a third factor: format happiness. With these data we can then try to model the relationship between the current meta-game and current happiness in a format. It is then possible to identify problem elements based on player preference. Ideally, the format would be balanced to maximize player enjoyment. (We can argue about utilitarianism here but I'd prefer not to, I think we can generally agree that overall player happiness with the format is the general goal).

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Of all the people that generally contribute to conversation here, how often do you all play? Especially in paper?
Very little on MTGO. I have a couple decks on there, but nothing tier 1 and I play maybe 1 league every couple months. In paper I play weekly, usually just at FNM's, sometimes with my coworkers but they're more into EDH precons than Modern decks.

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

All my playing is paper.
In Legacy I can play twice a month.
I draft weekly.
Modern is not firing near me post announcement, so I can't play. We had comp rel Modern in Europe over the summer, I did just one, they were late in being arranged and organised over the vacation period. I lost in the final at my LGS, as the whole structure and prize support was what I believe Americans term 'hot garbage', effectively a restoration of the old pptq system where the prize was qualification to an event with large travel costs and an entry fee that was prohibitive.
One LGS fifty miles away moved Modern to Thursday to make room for Pioneer. They run Friday Legacy monthly with double figure attendance, standard and pioneer now weekly or alternating iirc. My local city has not fired Modern for a while, last week on our black Friday (the one with all the office parties, not the discount sale nonsense) we had casual Legacy and Standard, between 4-8 players, but we can't even get that for Modern post pioneer announcement. It us not fees or prizes putting people off. I pulled a foil oko from the premium first place promo pack.
In case anyone missed the memo- Modern is dead. Norwegian blue parrot dead. Our owner is dropping Modern to make way for Pioneer. I think standard will have a hit too, it is not pulling in the players it did and many are building Pioneer.

Legacy is the best paper constructed format, it slowly evolves and everyone can play almost any style. The differences between tiers is small. You might bring a couple of revolvers to a machine gun fight, but they still fire bullets.

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Post by Simto » 1 year ago

Is The Elderspell really so bad that no one talks about it? If your meta is saturated with planeswalkers (even that forces you to play at sorcery speed).
Use this.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Of all the people that generally contribute to conversation here, how often do you all play? Especially in paper?
Exclusively MTGO, although I'll also play with close friends in person. I'm not a huge fan of the LGS experience in general
gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
If it wasn't for amulet titan though, I would have stopped modern, as I think the format is in a bad shape. I disagree with sheridan in that the only reason for that is pioneer getting its way into arena and I do think modern needs some shakeup, but I am certain its going to get it until mid january. The attendance in my region has been steadily dropping, pioneer is dead at the moment, and most people I have been talking to have dropped modern, as they think its too linear and not strategically diverse. If you want to win, its either an urza variant, a tron variant, a shadow variant. Maybe titan also, but this deck needs a lot of time to learn, so its not that easy. Poeple want to be able to play with control, jund midrange, tribal decks, tempo decks, toolbox decke, as they once could. Also a lot of people are wondering why cards like twin and pod are banned, at the moment there are much stronger decks than those roaming around.
To be clear, I do think Modern has issues. I just don't think those issues could hurt the format in any significant way on their own. As long as Modern was the only nonrotating, diverse game in town with Wizards support, it could stand up to any number of unhealthy metagame experiences. It might wane from month to month, but overall it would remain popular and draw crowds. That's because at one point, it had a monopoly on that particular chunk of Magic. Legacy might be the "better" format to spikier players, but it's simply not supported at the same level as Modern. This support and exclusivity meant Modern could push through even the ugliest metagames and maintain overall momentum.

Pioneer's introduction totally changes that because it obliterates player confidence in the format. Pioneer and Modern occupy virtually identical spaces for enfranchised players, except one is getting a massive influx of paper support and a decisive monopoly of Arena support. Modern can't compete with that. This is where the unhealthy metagame element really comes back to bite Modern, because now that Modern isn't the only game in town and doesn't have that security/longevity it appeared to have, there's no incentive to stick with it through even the smallest downturn in metagame health.
Simto wrote:
1 year ago
Is The Elderspell really so bad that no one talks about it? If your meta is saturated with planeswalkers (even that forces you to play at sorcery speed).
Use this.
This car is too narrow, like most answers Wizards has printed because they are so scared that Timmy's 4+ CMC investment gets consistently answered at 1-2 CMC. If we look at the top 8 decks that comprise 50% of the MTGO metagame (see my post above), Elderspell does absolutely nothing against Dredge, Infect, Burn, and Grixis/Sultai Death's Shadow in virtually all games, and only addresses one of the many Plan As/Bs/Cs of decks like Urza variants and E Tron. Wizards is so deathly afraid of printing powerful answers that they routinely incentivize proactive instead of reactive plays. Why try to kill Oko with Elderspell when Urza decks might win without playing a single PW all game? Noxious Grasp is a much better type of answer, but even there, it's too color restricted to see widespread play. Hero's Downfall style effects are also good, but not at CMC 3; you can't answer Okos, Narsets, and T3feris at CMC parity while falling behind in resources.
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Of all the people that generally contribute to conversation here, how often do you all play? Especially in paper?
Have long ago decided to avoid online games, and that includes mtg.

I play exlusively on paper, and play every chance I get. Right now our lgs only has standard... so my modern playing is limited to casual play with a close circle of friends. However, I am hopeful that pioneer would soon carve it's way into the stores here, and I can play fnm again. Oh, sometimes the people I sell cards to would bring their decks and we would end up playing a bit before they leave - it's one way of practicing to avoid becoming rusty, since fnm is not available right now. :)
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

I don't play online. I quit going to FNM Modern 3 months ago. I already said before in this thread that my LGS is moving Modern from Friday to Thursday starting in January to make room for Pioneer because of popular demand. This means I can start playing Pioneer at FNM's. Since the announcement Modern attendance has declined so much the events aren't firing. Standard was dropped already. Tables already used to be empty 3 month ago. Modern moving to Thursday is a death sentence. Its over, its done.

Dutch Open Series also moved Pioneer to Saturday along with Modern to make more room for sealed and Legacy on Sunday because those formats have been booming with attendance rising every event. Standard was dropped completely. Modern will have to compete with Pioneer now so that is another death sentence.

To sum up: Local LGS's are moving Modern to Thursday and Pioneer to Friday. National premium events hold Modern and Pioneer on the same day now. This means Modern will continue to see a huge drop off next year since it will compete directly with Pioneer. Even if I wanted to play Modern I would have to wait until May 2020 to be able to attend an event. This is how bad it is. The situation is dire. If Wizards wants Modern to survive they need to act ASAP.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
I grind paper tournaments on my region and doing pretty darn great. I have won a lot of stuff during the past year with ur phoenix and now amulet titan, which is a great deck that's about skill and is as rewarding as it gets.

Not playing on modo though.

If it wasn't for amulet titan though, I would have stopped modern, as I think the format is in a bad shape. I disagree with sheridan in that the only reason for that is pioneer getting its way into arena and I do think modern needs some shakeup, but I am certain its going to get it until mid january. The attendance in my region has been steadily dropping, pioneer is dead at the moment, and most people I have been talking to have dropped modern, as they think its too linear and not strategically diverse. If you want to win, its either an urza variant, a tron variant, a shadow variant. Maybe titan also, but this deck needs a lot of time to learn, so its not that easy. Poeple want to be able to play with control, jund midrange, tribal decks, tempo decks, toolbox decke, as they once could. Also a lot of people are wondering why cards like twin and pod are banned, at the moment there are much stronger decks than those roaming around.

PS: just looked into the latest modo event. Its oko decks vs oko decks. The card is hurting modern too much right now.
If the complaint is linear decks, Pod should be your #1 most hated deck. In theory Birthing Pod makes the deck extremely diverse with wide decision trees, but in practice there are only a small handful of good lines and most of the possible decisions can be discarded.

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