[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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idSurge
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

God, I cannot tell you how much I hope it continues, but they are actually curating the format.

If Modern had even half as much attention on it, it would benefit greatly.

EDIT: I will say, Nexus was one of my other decks, so thats a ouch, to me. lol
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
And we're live: no changes.
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... ncement?en
good to know he still survives here.

sad Oko got ban in pioneer...
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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

Bearscape wrote:
1 year ago
Sets are designed years in advance but I doubt they are set in stone so hard that RnD can't respond to a yearlong tsunami of blowback. I wouldn't jump to conclusions about how 2020 is going to go.
See Delver of Secrets to Thragtusk. That represents the minimum time possible to make an emergency change. 2019 would require several of these and many weren't apparent instantly. It won't be until fall/winter 2020 that they can really have any reactions to 2019 out. 9 months is the absolute minimum, and that requires almost instant feedback that something is broken. If it requires anything more thought out it becomes significantly more difficult and pushes the release back an additional 3 months. For example, they literally have something like 10 days from the fall set release to the deadline to get something into the next core set. So if something isn't alarmingly broken within the first week, it probably takes a year to address.
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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

And again we see action on Pioneer and nothing in modern, even we need several bans there too. It's not funny anymore

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
And again we see action on Pioneer and nothing in modern, even we need several bans there too. It's not funny anymore
I honestly don't expect Modern changes any time soon because going off raw data alone especially mtgo results(Which the pioneer bans are entirely based on) the format is diverse enough and not in any emergency as far as wizards see. Compare this to standard their main moneymaker which is in dire straits and Pioneer which is getting a heavy focus right now.
Outside an Eldrazi Winter scenario I can't see wizards making any move on modern any time in the foreseeable future

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Post by Arkmer » 1 year ago

Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago
A power rating for the set doesn't really mean much though in terms of what needs to be banned. It just takes a pushed card or two.
That's a very fair point, even so I hope they realize what they were trying to build (because it's all been set in stone). Unfortunately, whatever comes in the next three sets (at least) was built before WotC was forced to ban Oko in now 2 formats while seeing it alter all the rest.

At least for Modern's sake, I hope we get some answers to walkers that actually out pace the walker it targets.
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
God, I cannot tell you how much I hope it continues, but they are actually curating the format.

If Modern had even half as much attention on it, it would benefit greatly.
The way they handle Pioneer B&R list compared to Modern proofs its not a matter of incompetence but unwillingness. With Pioneer they have proofed that within a few weeks they are very capable of doing aggressive format regulation in order to create a healthy and fun format. They have shown that if they really wanted too they could have fixed Modern years ago or at least months ago and by the very least starting today. Today's announcement compared to Pioneer is really them saying 'we don't care about Modern'.
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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

I talked about lack of good answer versus walker 2 years bevore. It's unbelievable wotc doesnt see the same problem like so many people and instead sells us a only walker themed set. It's so unbelievably shortseeing

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Right now I would advise everyone that everyone should leave this format from a financial perspective. The format is Lando with a microphone levels of over, the stormtroopers have taken over, guys- and we need to leave pdq.

I am convinced they are holding off on bans until Feb/March/April when they will try and reinvigorate the format but it is too late.
My LGS is cutting Modern, and keeping Legacy. We don't even get 8 for Legacy- Modern was the most popular format a couple of years ago. Now - well the last event was me. Just me.
My other LGS I play Legacy in - not very local- has moved Modern to Thursday, keeping Legacy. The big European REL comp events flopped pretty much- 10-15 a store max. Ok the prize sucked- entry into another event that cost a fortune to get to, but then enthusiasm was waning then.
The prices are not the regular dip, not the cycle we all know where Dec prices are low,

You simply have to take the hit on the cards. What you lose now will eventually be partially re-gained if you buy into Pioneer and guess right. Otherwise your cards will tank and Pioneer will be a bit more expensive anyway, losing out twice over. You can't use the normal playbook of " I zig and everyone zags".
Surgical extraction is now £14 gbp on Ebay- I sold them for more than double that in September. That is not regular downturn. That is an exodus to Pioneer.
Giver of Runes- £5 from £10 in the same time period. It is not just decks coming in and out of prevalence- the cards that are Modern but not Pioneer have shot down. Blood Moon for a tenner, snappy and bob at year long lows, canopy lands at £5 off of auctions. Sure there is a drop across the board, but don't let that disguise the fact that Modern is full of product that is not moving without significant cuts. I follow prices closely- and have turned over a good 5 figure sum in fewer years, and I can honestly say that whilst the format will continue the prices won't. You will pay for Goyfs, Snappy etc, but they are going to be snapped at £30 not 60 anymore.

Fetches have not changed much - down 25% value max, but so much other stuff has gone through the floor. There are people trying to shift Force of Negation at £25 gbp who won't take the hit on the price as it was never lower, and whilst people will sell at a lower price than a couple of months ago they are always reluctant to sell at a lower price than they bought. I have sold out of 5 modern decks in the last few months, I have basically kept a couple of dirt cheap ones I enjoy, but I don't expect to be playing them more than once or twice a year.

Right now the bans show that they will make sure Pioneer works, and then turn attention to Modern.
Last edited by drmarkb 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
modern Preliminary: https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... 2019-12-16

Modern Challenge: https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... 2019-12-16
So, Modern Challenge top8:

Eldra Tron: 8 (!!!!!)
Urza: 6 (!!!!!)
4c DS: 4
Burn: 2
Valakut: 1
UW Control
Mono U Tron
Infect
Jund
UR Tempo
Jeskai Ascendancy
Bant toolbox
Temur tempo
UW Control
Nogaak: 1
Modern Preliminary top 8:

4c DS: 4
Amulet Titan: 3
Eldra Tron: 3
Burn: 2
Urza: 1
Storm: 1
Infect: 1
Mono Red Prowess: 1
Humans: 1
The modern challenge event shows a whopping of 15/32 colourless decks, E-Tron seems to be dominating, Urza seems to be dominating, and again is all linear decks, save the DS variants. Valakut won the event.

The preliminary event has 13 linear decks(3 amulet, 3 E-Tron, 1 Urza), and then 4 DS variations which now have an average cmc of 1.5 mana. Disgusting. Infect won the event.

This current Modern format is a big mana + Urza format and is hilariously disgusting and atrocious. Can't stretch enough how it is literally the worst Modern I have ever seen besides Eldrazi and Hogaak :sick:
Except when the Modern Challenge top 8 from your link above is as follows.
1st Amulet Titan
2nd UW Control
3rd SultaI Urza
4rd Eldrazi Tron
5th 4c Death's Shadow
6th Eldrazi Tron
7th Blue Tron
8th Infect

Also of note is the follow decks from your prelimary results with a 4-1 score or higher

Infect
Mono Red Prowress
Amulet Titan
4c Death's Shadow
Burn
Humans
Eldrazi Tron
Sultai Urza

Also everyone knows Eldrazi Tron and Urza are some of the better decks right now but the way you have presented the data is more confusing than the way it misrepresents the standings of the deck in that top 32.Nothing in the data you linked shows anything close to either deck 'dominating', if anything it shows Urza and Eldrazi Tron while both are heavily prevalent online the results at the upper end of the tournament results is more spread between different decks and archtypes.
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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

Now, I'm not on the ban Oko bandwagon, but I do think anyone interested in the metagame should take a look at this.

https://www.mtgtop8.com/topcards?f=MO&meta=51

That's the 20 most played cards in the format. Oko is now the most played threat, and almost the most played non land card. Breeding Pool has become the most played dual land. If nothing else, that's proof of a massive metagame shift.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Lots to respond to here, but I want to emphasize two points.

Re: metagame health
Some players think Modern is an unhealthy nightmare of Urza and colorless and/or big mana decks. Others think it is fine and as we have seen in this very page, both sides can cite the same event to lend credibility to their case. To me, this underscores it is extremely difficult to assess Modern health with limited data and no major paper events. This is partially by design and partially incidental due to the time of the year. It should be worrisome, however, in light of Wizards' vigorous focus on Pioneer and partial abandonment of Modern these past months. It means Wizards is behind the ball in diagnosing and addressing any "true" Modern problems, which means ongoing issues will fester and hurt regulars while Wizards pretends things are fine. It also means unbans, which can reinvigorate interest, feel remote to players even if SFM is only a few months old. This further alienates players and adds to a really bad year for Modern.

Re: Modern's future
As drm said above, I also want to emphasize Modern is in significant long and even short term trouble. By most current measures, Pioneer is going to be the way of the future for nonrotating formats. Wizards will support Modern insofar as it is profitable, but they won't promote or foster it the same way they will push Pioneer. This will leave Modern in the hands of players and TOs, who I believe will quickly find Modern's loyalists to be much less loyal than we may think. I firmly believe the biggest Modern draws are its diversity and nonrotating security, neither of which are particularly unique. A healthy Pioneer could easily provide those draws and with Wizards support, will do so on a bigger platform. Add in Arena and Modern is really sunk.

If Wizards brings Modern to Arena, I will happily reverse my forecast. But unless/until that happens, this format is looking like a sinking ship.
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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

I'm not sure that Pioneer can last long term given it's current card pool and Wizards current design philosophy.

Modern is already suffering from significant problems with interaction. In the top 100 most played cards in the format here's the answers that see play:

Lightning Bolt
Fatal Push
Thoughtseize
Inquisition of Kozilek
Engineered Explosives
Cryptic Command
Path to Exile
Blast Zone
Force of Negation
Kolaghan's Command
Assassin's Trophy
Stubborn Denial
Lightning Helix
Chalice of the Void
Mana Leak
Liliana of the Veil
Spell Snare

17 cards, and they're already insufficient to keep the format in check while most of Modern's threats are legal in Pioneer. Of those 17 answers, only 6 are legal in Pioneer. The format is still new and exciting, but I have serious doubts that it's actually capable of policing itself right now. If Pioneer can't do that, then it effectively gets Modern a stay of execution for a couple years.

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Post by Simto » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
If Wizards brings Modern to Arena, I will happily reverse my forecast. But unless/until that happens, this format is looking like a sinking ship.
It's never coming to Arena. Look how long it took them to even implement %$#% friends lists in an online game. It's insane. And I don't want to now how old I'll be if they actually do end up adding it to Arena hehe, especially since they said Pioneer will take a long time.
Hasbro is all about the dosh and modern doesn't give them the levels of dosh they want.

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Post by Mikefon » 1 year ago

Looked at the last month of challenges/premiers/PTQs on MTGO:

BUx Shadow: 33
Eldratron: 30
Dredge/Crabvine: 16
Urza variants: 14
WUx Control: 13
Infect: 13
Burn:12
Mono red blitz: 8
Amulet Titans: 7
Humans: 7
Tron (G and U): 7
Simic Eldrazi: 5
Jund: 5
Scapeshift variants: 5
Other: 18

Eldratron and shadow are actually overperforming, not Urza. It may still be a meta-shaper though (Karn is good also thanks to a lot of artifacts presence).
There are a lot of big mana decks (25,4%) and that can be a problem. Same numbers for "linear super aggro decks" (Mono red, burn, infect, dredge variants).
Actions will be taken by Wizards only after the next big tournament imho.

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

My LGS is holding a poll to change FNM Modern to Thursday and put Pioneer on Friday starting next year. This would put the final nail in the coffin for my local Modern scene. Apparently a lot of players have asked to make this switch and Modern attendance has been in free fall for some time now. I remember 2 years ago we used to preregister (24 spots open) for the FNM's because it was always full and people who didn't made it got prevalence for the week after. Nowadays its seen as a success if at least 8 people show up.

And its not just because of Pioneer. Attendance has been gradually dropping since last year. During Hogaak summer the Modern FNM's even got cancelled. For a few weeks there was a big attendance spike when Stoneforge got unbanned but that didn't stay.

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

The thing is this isnt a unique thing to just modern and has been discussed multiple times through this thread. Right now paper magic is in shambles as a whole and magic is bleeding players endlessly. Paper magic is effectively dead in my country for example as we just had over a year of zero competitive events when they used to be almost every month. Why keep building new decks be it modern or standard if there is simply no events to play them that. Fnm on it's own doesnt sustain players.
I honestly hate wizards so much for what they have done to this game in the last 18 months and this is wouldnt even discussing cards they have designed
Not to mention the disastrously awful turn outs for all MF level events recently. This is honestly gotta be the worst magic has been in a very long time for attendance across the board. What makes it worse is it's mostly self inflicted

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

Simto wrote:
1 year ago
ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
If Wizards brings Modern to Arena, I will happily reverse my forecast. But unless/until that happens, this format is looking like a sinking ship.
It's never coming to Arena. Look how long it took them to even implement %$#% friends lists in an online game. It's insane. And I don't want to now how old I'll be if they actually do end up adding it to Arena hehe, especially since they said Pioneer will take a long time.
Hasbro is all about the dosh and modern doesn't give them the levels of dosh they want.
If they add it to Arena in the way they originally added Legacy to MTGO, where they do so by adding cards roughly in order of how much play they see, it's actually not a whole lot of effort to port Modern over. The number of cards is a bit more than RTR, but less than RTR+Gatecrash. That wouldn't be the complete format, but it would be close enough.

So, a complete Pioneer would then lead to very little additional commitment to add all of Modern. Though this then creates the question of if they would give us a complete Pioneer or instead take a similar strategy to that. If they do, then Modern is about double the commitment, if they don't, then it is significantly less.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
This is different. Plague Engineer is not really technically removal. He is not a Sorcery/Instant Spell that goes away after it resolves or doesn't resolve. It is sort of like a "Global Enchantment" from the set Legends. It invalidates the entirety of many tribal creature decks because many are X/1s. At least all of the cheap ones are. When Plague Engineer is combined with spot removal for Lords who give +1/+1, it can be nearly impossible to overcome.
Does removal have to be on a spell? Birthing Pod used to at various times play Nekrataal, Shriekmaw, Orzhov Pontiff, and Murderous Redcap. Were those not removal?

In addition to the -1/-1 effect, which can hit tribal cards, but can also be used more surgically in other matches, it's a 2/2 deathtouch, meaning 2 power for attacking, and it can sometimes block too. It's a fantastic card for the format, the sort of thing we need more of. It's interactive, and unlike the card it drew inspiration from, every color can potentially do something against it.

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Post by Simto » 1 year ago

Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago
Simto wrote:
1 year ago
ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
If Wizards brings Modern to Arena, I will happily reverse my forecast. But unless/until that happens, this format is looking like a sinking ship.
It's never coming to Arena. Look how long it took them to even implement %$#% friends lists in an online game. It's insane. And I don't want to now how old I'll be if they actually do end up adding it to Arena hehe, especially since they said Pioneer will take a long time.
Hasbro is all about the dosh and modern doesn't give them the levels of dosh they want.
It's actually not a whole lot of effort to port Modern over.
Yeah, I don't think it is either, especially if they skip making animations and sound effects for individual cards. But like I said, how long did it take for them to even get a %$#% friends lists up and running?
It'll be a million years until Pioneer is in the game, so waiting for modern.... fuuuuuck that's going to suck.

I think it's pretty clear it's all about money, but what do I know. I'm just a fat nobody whining on an online forum and not the head of a company making tons of money lol.
I'll keep playing with my Urza lands and Karns as long as I think it's fun.

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Post by pierreb » 1 year ago

Friends list has nothing to do with it. Adding a feature is a question of prioritizing, it is not as if an engineer can just add friends list as a side project.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

So, some news broke today on Reddit, but I guess Saffron Olive has been hitting this for a while. It seems WotC has been manipulating data to inflate stream view counts for Magic Arena. Not the brand as a whole, just Arena.

A few pages back we were talking about Wizards having a long term plan of making the game digital only. This is one more piece of evidence for that theory. Basically, they're adjusting the data to make Arena look far more popular than paper in order to set up a justification to shift additional resources.

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Post by Simto » 1 year ago

pierreb wrote:
1 year ago
Friends list has nothing to do with it. Adding a feature is a question of prioritizing, it is not as if an engineer can just add friends list as a side project.
It VERY much shows how they prioritise their time not having a %$#% friends list in an online multiplayer game. That stuff needs to be in the game day one of the alpha. It's ridiculous.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Here's the top 77.5% of MTGO Challenge/Premier/PTQ/etc. events from 10/20/2019 through present (n=417). This would roughly comprise Tier 1 and Tier 2 in the old Nexus breakdowns:
  1. Eldrazi Tron: 13.9% (n=58)
  2. Grixis Death's Shadow: 7.7% (n=32)
  3. Burn: 6.5% (n=27)
  4. Amulet Titan: 6.2% (n=26)
  5. Sultai Urza: 5.3% (n=22)
  6. Sultai Death's Shadow: 5% (n=21)
  7. Dredge: 4.6% (n=19)
  8. Infect: 4.3% (n=18)
  9. Jund: 3.6% (n=15)
  10. Paradoxical Urza: 2.9% (n=12)
  11. Humans: 2.9% (n=12)
  12. Mono R Prowess: 2.9% (n=12)
  13. Bant Snow Control: 2.9% (n=12)
  14. CrabVine: 2.4% (n=10)
  15. Mono G Tron: 2.2% (n=9)
  16. Azorius Control: 2.2% (n=9)
  17. Gifts Storm: 2.2% (n=9)
If we break this down by macro-archetypes, here are percentages of Tier 1 and Tier 2 (not of the entire metagame):

Linear aggro/combo: 33.1% (Burn, Dredge, Infect, Humans, Prowess, CrabVine, Storm)
Big mana: 28.8% (E Tron, G Tron, Amulet)
DS variants: 16.4% (Grixis, Sultai)
Traditional interactive: 11.1% (Jund, UW, Bant Snow)
Urza variants: 10.5% (Sultai, Paradoxical)

Again, it's very hard to identify Urza decks as overperforming online. The idea that they are some secret MTGO metagame influencer simply doesn't stick in this picture because their prevalence is too small. My proposed adjustment to the format in order to "fix" this metagame is still a series of nerf bans to the tune of Veil, Lattice, Claim/Force of Vigor, and Oko. This hits a number of top decks at the margins, opening up Modern to more interactive strategies which either can't answer the sideboard trumps (Veil/Claim/Force), can't outgrind Oko, or can't handle the Lattice knockout. No decks actually die with the bannings of these cards, and all but Claim represent direct or indirect (in Lattice's case) 2019 design failures. T3feri can also go because he directly disincentivizes non-UW control decks from playing, and he's yet another awful 2019 design disaster.

Re: Arena stream inflation
As Aza said, this is yet another datapoint that guides us to a digital Arena MTG future. As long as Wizards is conspicuously silent on Modern's place in that future and stance on that product, we should be deeply worried. As long as Wizards keeps trumpeting Pioneer as the Arena nonrotating format of choice on top of that Modern silence, Modern players should be resigned to the format's inevitable decline. Unless Wizards reverses this course or reveals plans to bring Modern to Arena, we will see Modern almost completely die out by 2021.
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Again, it's very hard to identify Urza decks as overperforming online. The idea that they are some secret MTGO metagame influencer simply doesn't stick in this picture because their prevalence is too small. My proposed adjustment to the format in order to "fix" this metagame is still a series of nerf bans to the tune of Veil, Lattice, Claim/Force of Vigor, and Oko. This hits a number of top decks at the margins, opening up Modern to more interactive strategies which either can't answer the sideboard trumps (Veil/Claim/Force), can't outgrind Oko, or can't handle the Lattice knockout. No decks actually die with the bannings of these cards, and all but Claim represent direct or indirect (in Lattice's case) 2019 design failures. T3feri can also go because he directly disincentivizes non-UW control decks from playing, and he's yet another awful 2019 design disaster.
Your nerf ban idea is interesting, I don't agree but it's a decent thought exercise as if nothing else it can help us narrow down what sorts of design ideas are unhealthy, as on the surface a card like Nature's Claim seems totally fine. However, I think that you're wrong on Force of Vigor. It requires a stronger commitment to green than cards like Nature's Claim do so it's not as easy to splash, and being mana free allows it to be a good strategy to prevent cards like Blood Moon from creating non games. I also find it to be a good way to create interaction against more unfair strategies than relying on just counterspells and discard, as being mana free is extremely important here as it allows you to tap out and progress your game plan while under a clock.

Sure, unfair decks can run it too, but that means they need to be running several green cards and green isn't really the most common color for unfair decks (assumes they don't have access to Veil to boost the green count)

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