[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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idSurge
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
Been following CFB's Modern PTQ Top 8 lists for the past couple of Magic Fests and Jund does tend to show up a lot in those. Strange that it does well at PTQs but just can't perform at an actual Modern main event.
Smaller pool of players, jund types more dedicated that the people in the side events on average (an assumption obviously) and they dodge those better decks in the day 2 'winners meta' by not playing against them?

Jund still does strong things, but its not a 'real' deck. There only 4 or 5 of those at any given time.
UR Control UR

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

Tzoulis wrote:
1 year ago
gkourou The Saturday and Sunday PTQ's have only one Urza deck each in their Top 8s

Also, I'm seeing plenty of Jund going around.

As for the Top 64, yeah concerning numbers, but I don't expect anything to happen till February (?),

I assume GP Austin will be the deciding factor in their decision.
Jund always has a decent metashare because people aren't likely to move away from the deck due to costs. Jund doesn't have any splashover cards with other decks. Also Wrenn halved in value so people who already had Jund but missed the boat went in now.

Nevertheless Jund is a bad deck. It makes top8 appearances because of share numbers. Tell me, when was the last time Jund won a major event? Jund has a bad matchup against Eldratron, Snowbant control and Urza.

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Post by True-Name Nemesis » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Re: Urza and GP Columbus T16/T64
There's tons of Sultai Whirza across these brackets (T64 here: https://www.channelfireball.com/all-str ... eck-lists/). There's 2 in the T8 with one missing on breakers as GK noted, 5 in the T16, 6 in the T32, and 10 in the T64. That's the kind of increasing conversion rate we see in undispusted best decks that probably have bannable pieces. For reference, Urza was 13.7% of Day 1, 14.3% of day 2, 15.6% of T62, 18.8% of T32, 31.2% of T16, and 25% of T8 (but almost 37% of T8 with Wu missing on breakers). This elevates GP Columbus from a yellow flag event to an orange flag event in my books, and now we have two orange flags if we count the ugly SCG Atlanta.
I did a Ctrl-F for Stoneforge Mystic on the top 64 link. 1 result. It's freaking amazing how long this card stayed on the ban list. And to think there were even people afraid that this card would warp fair decks around it.

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Thinking about PW issues.
Why ffs did solemnity not nerf PWs?
I mean for story garbage they could have said 'non bolas walkers'. It seems they went out of their way to make a card to spank on counters going onto everything apart from the one thing that screws the game up by having counters.
How much better would Modern etc. be if white's hate extended to Walkers the way it hates Graveyards.

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Ultimately, the most possible scenario is what @Tzoulis is describing. They will probably wait until February, because MODO does not tell them that much. KCI is hard to play online and it's a KCI alike case.
This is what put the nail in the coffin for me and made me sell out of Modern. Months and months go by were I just can't put myself to play FNM Modern because I am sick and tired of all the broken stuff.....but have to wait and wait and wait until it gets 'officially' confirmed by a PT or several GP's before Wizards finally acts. Meanwhile the casual player suffers and suffers and mayor tournaments are ruined because they want the obvious to get confirmed.

Was it really needed to have Eye of Ugin and Hogaak ruin several big events and make Modern unplayable for everyone else for months waiting for the announcement everyone knew was coming? Was it also really needed to not act on Faithless Loothing for so long? Same now with Urza. Even during Hogaak it was the best deck and 6 months later it still is in many iterations.

The only thing with Urza is its not quite apparent which card(s) need to get banned so that is the only excuse I could accept. There are so many potential bantargets.
Last edited by iTaLenTZ 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
I get you but still not too convinced either way.

If WoTC wants MTGA to be their main competitive/premier play platform moving forward, not having a complete card pool to test a format with on the platform itself hinders that. If it needs to be done 1st in MTGO before it gets added to Arena then it really defeats the purpose of having Arena as a competitive/premier play platform for Modern.
Complete relevant card pool sure. But seriously, does it matter one way or the other if Rebuke or Slayer of the Wicked isn't in the card pool if they're saying you can play Modern in the format? And no, they don't have to do it on MTGO first. In fact, if they were to do this, it would reduce their workload because they could then drop support for MTGO entirely. Making the same cards for two different platforms is silly, and I think everyone realizes they won't do that forever.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Re: Urza and GP Columbus T16/T64
There's tons of Sultai Whirza across these brackets (T64 here: https://www.channelfireball.com/all-str ... eck-lists/). There's 2 in the T8 with one missing on breakers as GK noted, 5 in the T16, 6 in the T32, and 10 in the T64. That's the kind of increasing conversion rate we see in undispusted best decks that probably have bannable pieces. For reference, Urza was 13.7% of Day 1, 14.3% of day 2, 15.6% of T62, 18.8% of T32, 31.2% of T16, and 25% of T8 (but almost 37% of T8 with Wu missing on breakers). This elevates GP Columbus from a yellow flag event to an orange flag event in my books, and now we have two orange flags if we count the ugly SCG Atlanta.
I did a Ctrl-F for Stoneforge Mystic on the top 64 link. 1 result. It's freaking amazing how long this card stayed on the ban list. And to think there were even people afraid that this card would warp fair decks around it.
From the unbanning announcement:
The danger in reintroducing Stoneforge Mystic, and the reason it's remained on the banned list up until this point, is that it's at its strongest against straightforward decks that play to the battlefield. While we think it's unlikely, there is a scenario where Stoneforge Mystic could come to suppress this type of gameplay, in which case we would re-examine its legality (similar to Golgari Grave-Troll's history in Modern). Instead, our hope is that as gameplay becomes less graveyard focused, Stoneforge Mystic serves as an enticing draw for decks to refocus toward the battlefield, creature combat, and card advantage.

Spoken like people who truly have their finger on the pulse of Modern.

These people have no idea what they are doing, and what little faith I did have in them has thoroughly evaporated in 2019.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
Thinking about PW issues.
Why ffs did solemnity not nerf PWs?
I mean for story garbage they could have said 'non bolas walkers'. It seems they went out of their way to make a card to spank on counters going onto everything apart from the one thing that screws the game up by having counters.
How much better would Modern etc. be if white's hate extended to Walkers the way it hates Graveyards.
I know I am going to state the obvious, so please forgive me.

I really feel that WotC wanted to push planeswalkers. They actively wanted deck composition to be different than in the past. In Standard, Esper Walkers ran 4 of each Teferi and other planeswalkers as well I believe. They literally had a deck of planeswalkers, sort of "taking the place" of other spots that are historically in Control decks. They wanted planeswalkers to have an impact in Eternal formats. War of the Spark is the set that revolutionizes planeswalkers and it hasn't stopped since. I am not sure why there is no really strong, splashable planeswalker hate or some way to get rid of an emblem (which I realize by definition, it can't be removed). Elderspell is not enough.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by True-Name Nemesis » 1 year ago

Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago
True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
I get you but still not too convinced either way.

If WoTC wants MTGA to be their main competitive/premier play platform moving forward, not having a complete card pool to test a format with on the platform itself hinders that. If it needs to be done 1st in MTGO before it gets added to Arena then it really defeats the purpose of having Arena as a competitive/premier play platform for Modern.
Complete relevant card pool sure. But seriously, does it matter one way or the other if Rebuke or Slayer of the Wicked isn't in the card pool if they're saying you can play Modern in the format? And no, they don't have to do it on MTGO first. In fact, if they were to do this, it would reduce their workload because they could then drop support for MTGO entirely. Making the same cards for two different platforms is silly, and I think everyone realizes they won't do that forever.
Well seeing as how Viridian Longbow can become a Modern-playable card as an alternate win-con for Devoted Druid, yes I think it does matter.

Was MTGO not what you were implying when you said every card/archetype representative that saw play in Modern? MTGO would be the easiest way to get data on cards played in Modern to bring in no?

So if a card was never played before in a Modern deck on MTGO or never made a paper result, it wouldn't make it into your theoretical MTGA Modern. Then I would not be able to test the deck on Arena and would have to stick to MTGO until the card does get added. And WoTC can't really drop support for MTGO as long as the card pool isn't complete because of edge cases like the Viridian Longbow example.

A sort of competitive integrity for players who like to brew, but yes like you said it wouldn't matter for players who are only seeking to fine-tune and practice known quantities.

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Post by Yawgmoth » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
Thinking about PW issues.
Why ffs did solemnity not nerf PWs?
I mean for story garbage they could have said 'non bolas walkers'. It seems they went out of their way to make a card to spank on counters going onto everything apart from the one thing that screws the game up by having counters.
How much better would Modern etc. be if white's hate extended to Walkers the way it hates Graveyards.
I know I am going to state the obvious, so please forgive me.

I really feel that WotC wanted to push planeswalkers. They actively wanted deck composition to be different than in the past. In Standard, Esper Walkers ran 4 of each Teferi and other planeswalkers as well I believe. They literally had a deck of planeswalkers, sort of "taking the place" of other spots that are historically in Control decks. They wanted planeswalkers to have an impact in Eternal formats. War of the Spark is the set that revolutionizes planeswalkers and it hasn't stopped since. I am not sure why there is no really strong, splashable planeswalker hate or some way to get rid of an emblem (which I realize by definition, it can't be removed). Elderspell is not enough.
I did not know of Solemnity until just now but that is exactly the type of effect that would be perfect for both reigning in planeswalkers and giving white a much needed boost.

There's no reason to not print that type of effect into white. Planeswalkers will still see heavy play but white will be able to answer it, sounds healthy to me.

In fact, most of the "responses" that Modern needs could be printed in white. It's the most underpowered and underplayed color, it makes sense as far as the pie goes and it wouldn't accidentally make the strongest decks stronger.
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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Tzoulis wrote:
1 year ago
gkourou The Saturday and Sunday PTQ's have only one Urza deck each in their Top 8s

Also, I'm seeing plenty of Jund going around.

As for the Top 64, yeah concerning numbers, but I don't expect anything to happen till February (?),

I assume GP Austin will be the deciding factor in their decision.
On the one hand, I agree. This is the logical thing for someone to say.
On the other hand, they are speeding up bans across multiple formats(Legacy, Vintage, Standard, Pauper, and other formats).

Ultimately, the most possible scenario is what Tzoulis is describing. They will probably wait until February, because MODO does not tell them that much. KCI is hard to play online and it's a KCI alike case.
Regardless if it's too strong or not can we stop repeating that it's KCI like online because it really isn't at all. Also a lot of the newer versions have dropped the thopter combo completely in place of Urza/Lattice which significantly drops any amount of excess clicking. This deck isn't even close to the amount of clicking and wacky lines of play that KCI had

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
So if a card was never played before in a Modern deck on MTGO or never made a paper result, it wouldn't make it into your theoretical MTGA Modern. Then I would not be able to test the deck on Arena and would have to stick to MTGO until the card does get added. And WoTC can't really drop support for MTGO as long as the card pool isn't complete because of edge cases like the Viridian Longbow example.
In that case, it wouldn't. It was never a major issue for Legacy though. And that format used that system for years.

Especially since you can stage things like that. Get all the major stuff, and then the edge cases. That vast, vast majority of it that will show up, has already shown up, and can be prioritized by frequency of appearance.

Even when you include edge cases like this, there's a significant amount of the potential card pool that can be ignored.

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

[mention]FoodChainGoblins[/mention]
You are forgiven, my question was almost rhetorical - they missed a golden opportunity to stop this madness which will hurt the game in the long run. They listened to players over Jace every poxy set, hopefully they will hear us. Stop the planeswalker obsession. Give us hate. Hate. Hate. Hate. Hate.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

drmarkb wrote:
1 year ago
FoodChainGoblins
You are forgiven, my question was almost rhetorical - they missed a golden opportunity to stop this madness which will hurt the game in the long run. They listened to players over Jace every poxy set, hopefully they will hear us. Stop the planeswalker obsession. Give us hate. Hate. Hate. Hate. Hate.
I almost feel that cards like Questing Beast are their bad attempt at an answer. In the never ending quest to push creatures, they have made quite an effort to make the best answer to planeswalkers creatures.

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Post by Bearscape » 1 year ago

I really hate this narrative that now Planeswalkers in general are fundamentally a problem. Planeswalkers are an excellent design space and add to MtG's combat system, which is already its biggest boon over other cardgames IMO.

With very few outliers, Planeswalkers have been fine for years, until 2019 where they decided to push the power of cheap planeswalkers to absurd levels and started experimenting with static abilities. That doesn't mean Planeswalkers as a whole are suddenly broken, hell that doesn't even mean cheap planeswalkers or static abilities are broken. Smuggler's Copter didn't mean we bin Vehicles altogether, why does everyone want to throw out the baby with the bathwater all of a sudden?

If there is one general change I would want to see to planeswalkers, is to stop making them such generalised value engines. Make the decision of putting them into your deck more interesting than IF in my color THEN play. We have had a bunch of cool "specialized" planeswalkers see construted play and I want to see more of them. More Vivien Arcbow Ranger and Nahiri the Harbinger and less Gideon Ally of Zendikar and Elspeth Sun's Champion.

2019 was a design disaster for MtG, but the lessons I learned from that is a. The new Play Design team has to really learn to contain their inner Spike, B. static abilities on Planeswalkers have to be treated with utmost care and C. Be careful what you wish for because Modern Horizons probably did more bad than good for Modern.

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

I need a 1 mana walker with static ability : all other planeswalker loose all abilitys

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

I just saw the GP, MKM and SCG results and I do fear for an Oko ban. Bant control looks very strong and bant Urzoko is even stronger. After those a lot of decks play Oko or are starting to splash just for Oko. Too me that is format-warping.

Modern Magicfest Columbus only had 657 players. That is concerningly low. Magicfest Gent just 2 months ago had 1440 players, Magicfest Barcelona had 1514 players. This is another clear sign people are done with this format and jumped ship as soon as Pioneer got introduced. That means people were playing Modern not because they loved it but because a better alternative didn't exist and soon as it presented itself Modern's attendance went downhill really fast.

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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

Bearscape wrote:
1 year ago
I really hate this narrative that now Planeswalkers in general are fundamentally a problem. Planeswalkers are an excellent design space and add to MtG's combat system, which is already its biggest boon over other cardgames IMO.

With very few outliers, Planeswalkers have been fine for years, until 2019 where they decided to push the power of cheap planeswalkers to absurd levels and started experimenting with static abilities. That doesn't mean Planeswalkers as a whole are suddenly broken, hell that doesn't even mean cheap planeswalkers or static abilities are broken. Smuggler's Copter didn't mean we bin Vehicles altogether, why does everyone want to throw out the baby with the bathwater all of a sudden?

If there is one general change I would want to see to planeswalkers, is to stop making them such generalised value engines. Make the decision of putting them into your deck more interesting than IF in my color THEN play. We have had a bunch of cool "specialized" planeswalkers see construted play and I want to see more of them. More Vivien Arcbow Ranger and Nahiri the Harbinger and less Gideon Ally of Zendikar and Elspeth Sun's Champion.

2019 was a design disaster for MtG, but the lessons I learned from that is a. The new Play Design team has to really learn to contain their inner Spike, B. static abilities on Planeswalkers have to be treated with utmost care and C. Be careful what you wish for because Modern Horizons probably did more bad than good for Modern.
We had good planeswalkers before 2019. It's that 2019 brought us a critical mass of them. This seems to have been intentional too, and a new direction for the game considering that it coincided with Planeswalkers now being made available in multiple rarities.

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Post by Bearscape » 1 year ago

We've had plenty of good planeswalkers, good does not have to mean busted. 2019 brought us Wrenn and Six, Narset Parter of Veils, Teferi Time Raveler, Karn the Great Creator and Oko Thief of Crowns, and unprecedented line of horribly designed, overly pushed cheap Planeswalkers. I've seen a lot of people discuss global rules changes to Planeswalkers like giving them summoning sickness or making loyalty use the stack, which I frankly think is ridiculous. 2019 should not become the benchmark of Planeswalker power that we have to balance the game around. I see people make sweeping statements about how 2019 shows we have to make general changes to Planeswalkers when the much easier solution is to just look at 2019 and think "don't do that again". IMO the biggest error made in 2019 was just the underestimation of the power of static abilities, which has great potential that should be explored more but was just pushed too much. W6 and Oko were kind of separate cases to that issue that just also happened to be Planeswalkers.

The change to print Planeswalkers at other rarities than Mythic is a great one. Planeswalkers are a fantastic design space and almost exclusively reserving them to the chase-card boosterseller Hasbro-pleaser slot greatly hinders the ability to explore that design space.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

If they felt Throne was appropriately powered, and Ooo was part of it, and Walkers are their flagship card type (it should be Instant) I have a feeling the next set of 2 will have problematic Walkers.

Navigation of the board is not remotely interesting for many many players. If I had my way, I'd have lands.
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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
If they felt Throne was appropriately powered, and Ooo was part of it, and Walkers are their flagship card type (it should be Instant) I have a feeling the next set of 2 will have problematic Walkers.

Navigation of the board is not remotely interesting for many many players. If I had my way, I'd have lands.
Navigating the board is the one thing they're consistently pushing though, and have for many years. We might get answers, we might get fixes to power scaling. We probably won't see them back away from pushing playstyles that navigate the board, and with every expansion that playstyle gets pushed just a tiny bit further, until it's the only realistic option.

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Comparing this GP attendance with the last (I think) Modern GP in US, GP Minneapolis.
Link here: https://coverage.channelfireball.com/ev ... lX4BvsdjrU

Day 1
Despite the dreary weather, 981 players made it out the Minneapolis Convention Center to battle it out in the modern Grand Prix. Which deck will reign supreme - will Hogaak continue to trample over the competition or will some other deck prove triumphant? But more importantly, we look forward to seeing who will carry home the trophy on Sunday evening.

August, Hogaak warped GP & bad weather = 1000 people → now, good weather, 650 people.

Now, this might be an outlier, but if this trend continues, I feel Wizards should do something. I don't believe the conspiracies that say they stop caring about Modern. I believe they do care.

All that said, Wizards should accelerate the unban candidates that rot in the Banlist for no reason at the moment. Splinter Twin for sure, maybe Birthing Pod. I feel there is a realistic chance they do it now, to please the players and spread some enthusiasm to the Modern format, because as I can see there is a big number of people who dislike it and if this is visible on GP numbers as well, this kid a small first indication of it.

As I already have said, I strongly believe the alternative is to wait for the January GP, and then if action is needed to ban something from the Urza deck. I prefer unbans.
really wait again? Why we want this another waste of time like all time bevore?

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Finkel posted recently that PWs are the issue, I go with that to be honest.
They are an issue even when they are well designed, because they print no strong hate other than creatures. Nobody ever got punished for running walkers, that is an issue. Everyone gets punished for something, bar walkers. I get punished when answers don't match up or if my opponent Moons the board and I failed to run basics, but not because I included a set of Teferi or Jace.
I don't want ****ing combat in every match of Mtg. I just don't. It is called variety, and variety is Mtg's strength, gradually being whittled away.
Everything should have a predator. That is why Legacy is great, you can hit everything. Lands, hands, spells, Enchantments, critters. The whole lot. And you can draw smallpox against manaless dredge.
There are no predators for walkers bar suppression field and needle effects. Other than that it is one for one, with them always getting to use it, or one for one discard/counter if you exclude Nevermore effects.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago
idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
If they felt Throne was appropriately powered, and Ooo was part of it, and Walkers are their flagship card type (it should be Instant) I have a feeling the next set of 2 will have problematic Walkers.

Navigation of the board is not remotely interesting for many many players. If I had my way, I'd have lands.
Navigating the board is the one thing they're consistently pushing though, and have for many years. We might get answers, we might get fixes to power scaling. We probably won't see them back away from pushing playstyles that navigate the board, and with every expansion that playstyle gets pushed just a tiny bit further, until it's the only realistic option.
Exactly why it needs to stop, and exactly why eternal formats have people that never touch standard.

Pushing everyone to the board is not remotely close to the best option.

They just are so tunnel vision on it they can't help but break their own game.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

I'll be putting my money where my mouth is and an liquidating much of my collection. I have been so utterly dissatisfied with Modern for so long, and the current state of affairs tells us that dawn is not on the horizon.

Besides just not having time to play in paper anymore, I'm finding myself less and less inclined to even want or try to make time to play in paper. In addition to being unable to find a deck I'm in love with, and being wholly dissatisfied with the state of modern, the continued trend of unsatisfying gameplay day after day just makes me feel over it.

But mostly, my confidence in WOTC's ability to "manage" modern is absolutely and completely gone. If anyone still has a shred of that left, or interested in cards that have become Pioneer Staples, I would be happy to get rid of mine.

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