[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

Aazadan
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Post by Aazadan » 1 year ago

metalmusic_4 wrote:
1 year ago
I'm watching oko's price almost hourly because I'm going to pick some up for use in other formats. His price is actually ticking up since his banning, he is now up almost $3. Do you guys think we will have enough demand in other formats to keep his price this high like field of the dead has proven it has?
Not sure, I'm hoping it comes down. I want to pick up some extended art foils. I've got a regular set already (got them really low before he had any tournament success), kicking myself for buying local rather than going online to get the edition I actually wanted. But I didn't think the card would have been quite this insane.

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Post by Yawgmoth » 1 year ago

Aazadan wrote:
1 year ago
Not sure, I'm hoping it comes down. I want to pick up some extended art foils. I've got a regular set already (got them really low before he had any tournament success), kicking myself for buying local rather than going online to get the edition I actually wanted. But I didn't think the card would have been quite this insane.
At least you can feel good about supporting your LGS!

With the announcement that Pioneer is going to be introduced into Arena I bet more than 1 LGS is a little worried about their weekly event attendance.

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Amalgam
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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

So if people have been keeping up the online meta has already changed a ton and swung heavily towards Etron/GDS/Humans. The last two modern challenge events and online PTQ have had little to no Urza decks at all. The top 16 of the online PTQ had 6 Etron decks funnily enough.
Hopefully this calms the ban mania this thread has had recently

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

Online? Man, online is a click click click and click click game. Who plays urza online? It's horrible and a sign for nothing. Look at real events here please and there you see more urza now

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Post by Yawgmoth » 1 year ago

I think it really depends on the local meta. No one plays Urza at FNM at my LGS despite everyone knowing it is the best deck. Self-policing when the fun:money ratio is low or favors fun > money. Big tournaments are obviously a different story.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Yawgmoth wrote:
1 year ago
I think it really depends on the local meta. No one plays Urza at FNM at my LGS despite everyone knowing it is the best deck. Self-policing when the fun:money ratio is low or favors fun > money. Big tournaments are obviously a different story.
Consider yourself lucky. The locals at my store LOVE Urza, and there are nearly a dozen people on various builds of it. Most others are on powerful linear decks that create boring/bad gameplay like Titanshift, Dredge, and Tron. Most of the people like myself, who want to play fair/interactive Uxx or BGx decks have either switched to Pioneer, or just left entirely.

As for Oko's price: WOW. I was hoping to jump in and pick up a few for Sultai Shadow, but I'll just pass. It's already back to $60 online and $40 in paper. Thanks, no thanks.

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Arkmer
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Post by Arkmer » 1 year ago

I am also shocked that the price is rising post ban. I wonder if this is the new norm for multi-format staples that get banned in standard. Is there any precedence of this prior to Oko?
I've boxed my cards up for long term storage.

Maybe I will return... Maybe not.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
As for Oko's price: WOW. I was hoping to jump in and pick up a few for Sultai Shadow, but I'll just pass. It's already back to $60 online and $40 in paper. Thanks, no thanks.
Oko would improve one of my still active modern decks, but not worth risking 40$ on a card with a looming ban possibility imo. Pass as well.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Arkmer wrote:
1 year ago
I am also shocked that the price is rising post ban. I wonder if this is the new norm for multi-format staples that get banned in standard. Is there any precedence of this prior to Oko?
It's not that Oko was banned, it's that he was NOT banned in Pioneer or Modern. Which people are interpreting as Oko being safe to invest in because it WON'T be banned. I don't share that sentiment, but apparently enough for lots of other people.

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Post by Arkmer » 1 year ago

That's fair.

I certainly hope he sees a few more bans. If not in Modern, then at least in Pioneer.
I've boxed my cards up for long term storage.

Maybe I will return... Maybe not.

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
Online? Man, online is a click click click and click click game. Who plays urza online? It's horrible and a sign for nothing. Look at real events here please and there you see more urza now
Because urza was everywhere online before and is in a big downtrend in all recent big mtgo tournaments. You will find mtgo is one or the first places that adapts to changing metas as you can play leagues whenever you want. The meta is adapting already unlike the Hogaak issues months ago. If anything this reminds me of when GDS was first dominating modern and this thread on mtgdsalvation was going ballistic for bans. You need to look at both online and big real events if you want to properly be able to notice growing trends and changes. Or is it you guys always need some form of boogieman to moan about?

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

Is 7 days so long to you? Scg had 30% urza 7 days ago. Really man, we can talk now it's less?? How many online leagues you can see in some days which means something? And how you can say it changed in so less time? So let's see each month a lot of urza decks everywhere, but if you see less urza for 1 week, it it's fine?

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
Is 7 days so long to you? Scg had 30% urza 7 days ago. Really man, we can talk now it's less?? How many online leagues you can see in some days which means something? And how you can say it changed in so less time? So let's see each month a lot of urza decks everywhere, but if you see less urza for 1 week, it it's fine?
Because you refuse to look at other sources despite the fact the mtgo meta always changes fast in response to whatever has a target on it's back. This isn't even close to Hogaak debacle from only a few months ago which wasn't solved online. Also are you talking about the SCG event that was a mix of Pioneer/Modern for the same event? Again you need to follow more than one data source not just the one that meets your agenda if you want to have an actual discussion about this. Again this thread has a serious thread of jumping on whatever the current bandwagon is and running with it
Last edited by Amalgam 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
Is 7 days so long to you? Scg had 30% urza 7 days ago. Really man, we can talk now it's less?? How many online leagues you can see in some days which means something? And how you can say it changed in so less time? So let's see each month a lot of urza decks everywhere, but if you see less urza for 1 week, it it's fine?
If the online meta can change, then yes. Its fine.

The online meta could not get over things like KCI, or Dredge/Phoenix, unless an even bigger issue presented itself.

If the best 'arena' of Modern players can solve for the deck, then yes, its probably fine.
UR Control UR

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

It's a joke. 3 months dominating, 1 week not and all is OK. Next 3 months dominating, after 1 week not... Fine. So we can waste 1 year whole it was 1 month in this time ok and some people think it's nice. Sorry, that's sounds really strange. 3%,5%,8%,10%,15%,20%,30% was the way. Don't understand why you think it's necessary for 30% till people adapt, while each other deck can't reach 12% without people preparing for. Difference is powerlevel and this will stay. Sometimes 20%, sometimes more... This is not ok even people find ONE deck for fighting. It's to much. Please stay realistic

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

Bye the way, time on mtgo is clocking. You can't durdle with such decks while chesshour is awaylable. Question: if something is 25% in paper, but only 5% in mtgo... It's OK? Or maybe some of us should go out of this mtgo bubble sometimes?

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
Bye the way, time on mtgo is clocking. You can't durdle with such decks while chesshour is awaylable. Question: if something is 25% in paper, but only 5% in mtgo... It's OK? Or maybe some of us should go out of this mtgo bubble sometimes?
Because the deck is very playable on MTGO and was everywhere up until 2 weeks ago online. MTGO adapts fast and as soon as something is solved online it pretty very quickly becomes the norm unlike paper which takes time to adjust to change. Urza based decks are not the same as KCI which was awful to play online
Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
It's a joke. 3 months dominating, 1 week not and all is OK. Next 3 months dominating, after 1 week not... Fine. So we can waste 1 year whole it was 1 month in this time ok and some people think it's nice. Sorry, that's sounds really strange. 3%,5%,8%,10%,15%,20%,30% was the way. Don't understand why you think it's necessary for 30% till people adapt, while each other deck can't reach 12% without people preparing for. Difference is powerlevel and this will stay. Sometimes 20%, sometimes more... This is not ok even people find ONE deck for fighting. It's to much. Please stay realistic
Some of the best players in the world all play MTGO and if they aren't playing the deck in PTQ style events this should tell you a lot. Again paper will catch up and the deck is not the boogieman that you seem to think. Again please refer to GDS when it first took off in tournaments.
Also to re iterate it isn't just a drop in percentage the deck is almost non existent in these Etron/GDS metas for these high level events.
I'm not saying Urza is a bad deck as it's clearly a high level deck but it isn't unbeatable and a meta change has help deal with the deck

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

Etron is not new and gds too. Etron is heavy played since karn. Maybe now gds has more meta because urza, but 1 deck is not what can help. If people prepare now for shadow, it will be kicked out soon while urza stays. We will see soon what will happen, another time again and we will loose again time while modern is awfully and unplayable because we can't accept reality. Modern has since so many months allways 1 best deck which is several times better as the second best deck. It's frustrating. Most frustrating is people not willing to fight this problems more drastically. People makes party in Pioneer if they ban something, but cry in modern even something is busted

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
Etron is not new and gds too. Etron is heavy played since karn. Maybe now gds has more meta because urza, but 1 deck is not what can help. If people prepare now for shadow, it will be kicked out soon while urza stays. We will see soon what will happen, another time again and we will loose again time while modern is awfully and unplayable because we can't accept reality. Modern has since so many months allways 1 best deck which is several times better as the second best deck. It's frustrating. Most frustrating is people not willing to fight this problems more drastically. People makes party in Pioneer if they ban something, but cry in modern even something is busted
Well only time will tell but following weekly challenge and online PTQ results online is the best we have to go on while no GP size events are being run. Pioneer will start to run into similar issues as well as time progresses and half the people are harping on about it are just excited about playing a new format with new decks. Pioneer is far from a perfect format.
Your refusal to look at multiple data points just seems like an unneeded barrier and half the issue with people who cry in this format at times where the issues aren't as grand as they make out.
Also it doesn't batter if Etron and GDS are old decks a meta shift can push old decks into the limelight and this can be seen with the example given

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
Bye the way, time on mtgo is clocking. You can't durdle with such decks while chesshour is awaylable. Question: if something is 25% in paper, but only 5% in mtgo... It's OK? Or maybe some of us should go out of this mtgo bubble sometimes?
And go with what instead? Local events?

There's been nothing of relevance for a great deal of time. The most competitive events of late, have been online, and yes MTGO drives the meta.
UR Control UR

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

Yeah sure, urza is a local problem only. Let's forget 30% last week and 4 top 8 week bevore as example. It's only a casual problem

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Post by Amalgam » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
Yeah sure, urza is a local problem only. Let's forget 30% last week and 4 top 8 week bevore as example. It's only a casual problem
Sure lets go with that. Good thing as discussed earlier it has been solved over the last 2 weeks online. The paper meta will slowly catch up to reflect this. The meta has already changed based on results from some of the best players in the world and data from 2 weeks ago doesn't reflect where the meta is currently heading. If there was any major paper tournaments right now you would find the paper metagame catchup much faster than it is right now

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

I think this weekend is a big paper tournament? I hope it is and then we can see another one, after allready another one after another one, where urza is everywhere. It seems people still can't see why so many top 8 and so many meta is bad for modern. Not everyone will join Pioneer, and it is unfair versus us. A lot of people like me can't join it anymore if we play in big tournaments

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Amalgam wrote:
1 year ago
Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
Yeah sure, urza is a local problem only. Let's forget 30% last week and 4 top 8 week bevore as example. It's only a casual problem
Sure lets go with that. Good thing as discussed earlier it has been solved over the last 2 weeks online. The paper meta will slowly catch up to reflect this. The meta has already changed based on results from some of the best players in the world and data from 2 weeks ago doesn't reflect where the meta is currently heading. If there was any major paper tournaments right now you would find the paper metagame catchup much faster than it is right now
Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
I think this weekend is a big paper tournament? I hope it is and then we can see another one, after allready another one after another one, where urza is everywhere. It seems people still can't see why so many top 8 and so many meta is bad for modern. Not everyone will join Pioneer, and it is unfair versus us. A lot of people like me can't join it anymore if we play in big tournaments
Thankfully, there is indeed a big tournament this weekend: GP Columbus. This will be the first large, single-event datapoint worth considering. Invitational metagames, like any other insular or multi-format metagame, are never worth drawing conclusions from. Especially not from overall deck share. Look at conversion rates and MWP, not just who decided to show up with what deck. Day 1 numbers never tell the full story, especially in smaller events where top players have a good idea about what other top players are running. MTGO is a better indicator of format health, but there's no substitute for a GP. If there are underlying format issues, they will appear at the GP level. It's very rare to see a healthy GP Day 2 and T32/16/8 when the format has broken cards/decks. It's possible (late 2016 GP underrepresented Dredge's influence), but extremely rare (every other ban was predictable almost on GP T8s alone).
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

I hope this weekend this nightmare will end. I really play only modern, but since several months it's bad... Really bad. Sometimes I believe they did this on purpose because Pioneer. If they don't fix this soon, many people will just change at Pioneer (which they sure will like) and some of us just stop playing (which they don't like). After them urza players can play mirrors after mirrors, like it often was allready in last week's. Have fun

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