[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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cfusionpm
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Tzoulis wrote:
1 year ago
cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Tomatotime wrote:
1 year ago
Twin policed plenty of decks, before twin got banned, the very notion of playing most 3 CMC sorcery speed cards was a joke
Which is an ironic thing to believe, given the exponential explosion to the format's speed immediately following Twin's ban, and for the entirety of 2016... :thinking:
You keep saying that, but it's not even true.
What makes you believe it's not? Between the objective increase in speed, and the idea that after Eldrazi Winter, the format was dominated by fragile, fast, Turn 4 violators, what other conclusion could you draw?


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Post by Tomatotime » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
This weekend Dutch Open Series hosted the first Pioneer event. Around 80 people showed up. Modern had 120 people while they used to have 200+. Around 70 people attended Legacy, more than usual. I saw a lot of people who used to play Modern make the switch to Pioneer, also some made the switch to Legacy. Modern's attendance almost halved. On Sunday I sold 1/4 of my Modern collection to a vendor, I will keep 1 deck because it has a lot splashover with Pioneer and the rest I will sell individually over time.
Thanks for the report, it will be interesting what the major impact of this is once the actual major Pioneer events like GPs start happening and to what extent it perhaps accelerates this trend.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Big news here as well. I may need to start logging into Arena again to build up my wildcards...

UR Control UR

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Post by The Grumpiest » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago

VS full power Eldrazi, Hoggak? No difference. Those decks are legit BUSTED. Like 'no banlist winners' busted.
Just pointing out that Hogaak and Dredge have never done particularly well in NBLM due to the abysmal combo matchups, and the one semi-official tournament we've had was almost 50% Eldrazi, most likely because that was most well known "broken deck" at the time rather than any particular insight into the format. The pool contained 0 Storm, Elves, Prison, Cloudpost, Shoal infect, or WW (which was the archetype that won Randy Buehler's Gauntlet of Greatness, handily crushing Eldrazi). Not to mention that UW Miracles just ate up Eldrazi like it was candy, and that people were running Death's Shadow decks that were functionally modern legal. Suffice to say, more samples would be needed to actually make that claim, though I'd argue that Hogaak is less of an issue than say, Dark Depths, which was the other deck that seemed over-represented in the one tournament we've had.

Nowadays, I suspect that they'd have a really tough time competing with Leyline Elves, UW Miracles w/ Teferi, Cruise Storm, Whir Prison, Cloudpost, WW, and even something like Eggs.

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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
Tzoulis wrote:
1 year ago
As mention above, why is Simic Urza a "bad" choice of a midrange/control police deck?
Do you mean this?

https://www.mtggoldfish.com/archetype/m ... acts#paper
Yeah, that's the one.
cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Tzoulis wrote:
1 year ago
cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago

Which is an ironic thing to believe, given the exponential explosion to the format's speed immediately following Twin's ban, and for the entirety of 2016... :thinking:
You keep saying that, but it's not even true.
What makes you believe it's not? Between the objective increase in speed, and the idea that after Eldrazi Winter, the format was dominated by fragile, fast, Turn 4 violators, what other conclusion could you draw?

Did you see the first post by [mention]ktkenshinx[/mention] or do you think a 2.1% in pre turn 4 is relevant, but a 2% increase post turn 9 is not?

The data does not suggest what you say it does. At best it's lying by omission to support your point.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Tzoulis wrote:
1 year ago
idSurge wrote: ↑1 hour ago
Tzoulis wrote: ↑2 hours ago
As mention above, why is Simic Urza a "bad" choice of a midrange/control police deck?
Do you mean this?

https://www.mtggoldfish.com/archetype/m ... acts#paper
Yeah, that's the one.
I mean, its not a bad option for the Control side, it certainly blur's the edges of archetypes a lot.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

If you want to believe that the format slowed down, or was for some reason more friendly to "+3 cmc sorcery spells" after Twin was banned, I'd be happy to see any supporting evidence or reasoning. Nothing seems to show that claim is, or was ever true.

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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
If you want to believe that the format slowed down, or was for some reason more friendly to "+3 cmc sorcery spells" after Twin was banned, I'd be happy to see any supporting evidence or reasoning. Nothing seems to show that claim is, or was ever true.
I never claimed anything. You posited that the format got faster when that is not true. After that adding qualifiers (which need different kind of analysis) in no way, shape or form changes what you initially claimed.
idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
Tzoulis wrote:
1 year ago
idSurge wrote: ↑1 hour ago
Tzoulis wrote: ↑2 hours ago
As mention above, why is Simic Urza a "bad" choice of a midrange/control police deck?
Do you mean this?

https://www.mtggoldfish.com/archetype/m ... acts#paper
Yeah, that's the one.
I mean, its not a bad option for the Control side, it certainly blur's the edges of archetypes a lot.
Most archetypes do. For example UW midrange tilts towards control, while Junds towards aggro. Simic Urza tilts towards combo.
Last edited by Tzoulis 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

The format got faster. I showed that it was got faster. Are you under the impression that it is did not get faster? Or is this just an ax to grind?

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

To a point Tzoulis, as that is all part of the 'wheel' or spectrum of achetypes and how one bleeds into another, and so on.

That still doesnt satisfy exactly what I am looking for, but I admit, its a difficult ask at this point for the format to support what I want, or believe to be the best path for long term format health. :)
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

After jamming some modo games this afternoon I have come to a fairly solid realization. Since switching to playing basically exclusively on MTGO recently, I get to avoid a LOT of what I absolutely hate about playing Modern. Namely carving a huge chunk of time out of a busy schedule to drive long distances in traffic to sit through awful matchups followed by 20-30+ minutes of dead time between rounds.

I play in free rooms on MTGO (Bo3 "tournament practice"), which means I play against a lot of wonky stuff and only rarely run into "real decks" (aka: the miserable nightmares that plague terrible experiences in paper). When I do, I can easily concede whenever I feel like it and jump into the next match. When playing at FNM, it's almost entirely Dredge, Tron, Urza, Titan, and Burn, all of which make for fairly awful, uninteresting, repetitive, or just generally miserable gameplay, win or lose. Dodging all those decks the majority of time makes that Modern actually fun.

I have also seen the light that Once Upon A Time is an absolutely absurd, busted card, and I have been loving playing Sultai Shadow over the past several days. Between not having to play vomit-inducing matchups every round, and also playing something that has good filtering and drawing tools, cheap and efficient threats, universal removal, and the fact that I can jump in and out of matches at will, Modern online has been, dare I say, genuinely enjoyable.

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Post by Yawgmoth » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
I get to avoid a LOT of what I absolutely hate about playing Modern. Namely carving a huge chunk of time out of a busy schedule to drive long distances in traffic to sit through awful matchups followed by 20-30+ minutes of dead time between rounds.

I play in free rooms on MTGO (Bo3 "tournament practice"), which means I play against a lot of wonky stuff and only rarely run into "real decks" (aka: the miserable nightmares that plague terrible experiences in paper). When I do, I can easily concede whenever I feel like it and jump into the next match. When playing at FNM, it's almost entirely Dredge, Tron, Urza, Titan, and Burn, all of which make for fairly awful, uninteresting, repetitive, or just generally miserable gameplay, win or lose. Dodging all those decks the majority of time makes that Modern actually fun.
All of the things you hate are the things I love! How funny. I like the drive to the shop (can catch up on my political podcasts and unwind after work). I like the chit chat between matches with strangers. And I like to grind out games against the big bad boogie men so that I can get better at those match ups. The fact that these decks completely punish misplaying is why I enjoy playing against them.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Yawgmoth wrote:
1 year ago
cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
I get to avoid a LOT of what I absolutely hate about playing Modern. Namely carving a huge chunk of time out of a busy schedule to drive long distances in traffic to sit through awful matchups followed by 20-30+ minutes of dead time between rounds.

I play in free rooms on MTGO (Bo3 "tournament practice"), which means I play against a lot of wonky stuff and only rarely run into "real decks" (aka: the miserable nightmares that plague terrible experiences in paper). When I do, I can easily concede whenever I feel like it and jump into the next match. When playing at FNM, it's almost entirely Dredge, Tron, Urza, Titan, and Burn, all of which make for fairly awful, uninteresting, repetitive, or just generally miserable gameplay, win or lose. Dodging all those decks the majority of time makes that Modern actually fun.
All of the things you hate are the things I love! How funny. I like the drive to the shop (can catch up on my political podcasts and unwind after work). I like the chit chat between matches with strangers. And I like to grind out games against the big bad boogie men so that I can get better at those match ups. The fact that these decks completely punish misplaying is why I enjoy playing against them.
LOL I get that. But I get my audio needs on my daily 55-minute round-trip commute (currently listening to Blowout: Corrupted Democracy, Rogue State Russia, and the Richest, Most Destructive Industry on Earth, which is an amazing deep dive into the history and modern world of oil and gas drilling. I'm about 1/3 the way through and have been fascinated by it.)

I love chatting with others, and definitely love when we can get in games of EDH. I love Commander so much, I feel like I would rather just get together for that instead (assuming I can ever leave the house!). For me, playing Modern has become pretty much the worst thing I can do with my time in an LGS, because the experiences I have playing Modern are so dreadfully awful more often than not. And there's really nothing much to do about it. I don't even care as much about winning or losing as I do having interesting and engaging games. For whatever reason, I get that online, but I rarely ever get that in paper. Probably because money/credit is on the line, and we are full of Spikes playing horrendously obnoxious decks that center around play patterns I personally can't stand or find unbelievably unsatisfying.

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Post by Bearscape » 1 year ago

Is anyone expecting something to happen for Modern on Monday? I have not paid that much attention to the meta this month. I still feel like Urza is objectively the best deck, but I'm not certain whether it's oppressive. In general, whatever is going on in Modern has been somewhat overshadowed by the starting of Pioneer and the disaster of Okotober in Standard. I've also heard the rumbles of Legacy players complaining Arcum's Astrolabe has the meta return to the Deathrite Shaman 4c pile meta.

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Post by Ym1r » 1 year ago

Bearscape wrote:
1 year ago
Is anyone expecting something to happen for Modern on Monday? I have not paid that much attention to the meta this month. I still feel like Urza is objectively the best deck, but I'm not certain whether it's oppressive. In general, whatever is going on in Modern has been somewhat overshadowed by the starting of Pioneer and the disaster of Okotober in Standard. I've also heard the rumbles of Legacy players complaining Arcum's Astrolabe has the meta return to the Deathrite Shaman 4c pile meta.
For the reason that you mentioned there will be no changes in Modern. Not now and not for the foreseeable future. No major events are coming and so there is no reason. Urza might be the best deck indeed, probably I would say, but there is currently no proof.
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

[mention]Bearscape[/mention]

I don't know about other places, but the arrival of Pioneer sort of helped Urza get a low profile over here. Expecting nothing to happen. The deck of the wise wizard Urza is safe from the hammer.
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

Urzadeck is in dire need of a ban and honestly at least 2 pieces need to go. Whether its Urza himself, PO, Mox Opal, Emry, Ascedancy. I would love for Emry and Mox Opal to go. That means the deck can still exist in its previous iteration without being overpowered.

Once Upon a Time, Veil of Summer, Oko, Wrenn should go as well. Maybe then I will reconsider re-entering the format. Then throw people a bone and unban Pod and Zenith because those cards hardly do anything broken by today's standard.

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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
Urzadeck is in dire need of a ban and honestly at least 2 pieces need to go. Whether its Urza himself, PO, Mox Opal, Emry, Ascedancy. I would love for Emry and Mox Opal to go. That means the deck can still exist in its previous iteration without being overpowered.

Once Upon a Time, Veil of Summer, Oko, Wrenn should go as well. Maybe then I will reconsider re-entering the format. Then throw people a bone and unban Pod and Zenith because those cards hardly do anything broken by today's standard.
After all those bans, Karn TGC and Lattice should follow. While at it ban Chalice, Bridge and Blood Moon. Maybe, we should consider Terminus and Cryptic.

[mention]cfusionpm[/mention] There's no ace to grind, you keep saying that it sped up, while ignoring that more games went over 9 turns. The average is still the same, but somehow it still sped up?

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Post by Simto » 1 year ago

Karn and Lattice is kept in check by fast aggro, no need for a ban. Mox Opal will kill all artifact based decks, which will suck too.

I think I need a break from this thread. It's getting rather tiresome.

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Post by Bearscape » 1 year ago

Haven't seen the slippery slope argument in a while, almost feels nostalgic

If I had my way I'd see Urza and Astrolabe go, I think Astrolabe is secretly a gravely offensive card. I'd also be fine with exchanging Mox Opal with either of those two cards.

Also, although Oko is clearly fine in Modern, I would really love for that card to just disappear from all formats because boy is it obnoxious, I have the vague, incredibly unlikely hope that they will do something unprecedented, and errata Oko, so his Elkify ability becomes a -1. Since he is the face of Throne of Eldraine but so incredibly warping in Standard it is impossible they do nothing, maybe this is the compromise they go for.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

not referring to anyone in particular.. but there's so much ban mania it almost feels like satire.
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Post by Tomatotime » 1 year ago

The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
not referring to anyone in particular.. but there's so much ban mania it almost feels like satire.
It is inevitable, and as Pioneer events start taking off the ban mania in Modern will escalate in response. This is because in Standard and Pioneer, it is well accepted that bans improve gameplay for the formats, Modern is an exception at this point. As Modern loses ground to Pioneer, and less events fire as a result, and less higher tier tournaments use Modern as the format, people are guaranteed to start asking why people want to play those formats and not Modern, and when they find the answers, the only solution will be bannings. We can sit here and act like WoTC printing answers will somehow fix this, but heres the thing, if WoTC internally started designing fantastic answers that Modern needs today, we still would not see them printed for YEARS due to the long turn around time for making sets. At this point Modern does not have that kind of time to recover the beating that Pioneer is going to continue dealing it. And a large enough group of people sell out of Modern and make Pioneer their go-to format, it won't matter if the answer cards needed even come years later, the players will be gone.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

With yesterday's announcement about Pioneer eventually coming to MTG Arena in the long-term, I am comfortable saying Modern is living on borrowed time. As I and others discussed in previous pages, this will result in significant reductions in both short- and long-term Modern support at all tournament levels. We'll see fewer paper tournaments as people migrate to the long-term winner of Pioneer. We'll see more or less the same online support on MTGO, but the overall shift will be towards Arena so that's where the gameplay will really be happening. Most new players will shift over to MTG Arena, where there's a much more certain future and a better time investment to be had. MTGO will become the Legacy/Vintage platform, formats with distinct identities based on their card pool and history. Wizards and players will both find, however, that Modern's status as a "beloved" format has very little to do with the card pool and everything to do with its diversity and nonrotating status; two elements shared by Pioneer.

If this sounds like doomsaying it's because, to some extent, it is. Modern is going to die out in a way that Legacy/Vintage will not. Pioneer will be the format where Wizards can learn from their Modern mistakes and push their digital future. The writing is on the wall for anyone paying attention to MTG Arena's development, which I and others have correctly predicted will be the crux of their 2019 strategy and will continue to be that crux going forward. Pioneer is the future and Modern will be remembered mostly as a bridging format and Wizards' first foray into a nonrotating format not held down by the Reserved List. We may see future iterations of Modern/Pioneer in the long-long term, but they also won't be Modern.

I'm personally fine with this because vocal elements of the community and Wizards have done their utmost to create entrenched Modern problems that no amount of bannings will solve. This includes a toxic online atmosphere that rewards loud, hyperbolic, memey opinions on the format and not critical discussion. Although that is by no means representative of all Modern discussion, it's visible enough that most newcomers will experience it early in their Modern introduction. Pioneer represents a refreshing reset in an exhausting 1-2 years of endless Modern and Magic controversies, which will combine with other pressures to make it the preferred nonrotating format of most players. Modern will be left in that dust. We'll really start to notice it in later 2020 and definitely by 2021.
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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

No, I play modern all day long. No modern, no magic to me. I am not the only one, so be carefully with modern killing so fast, only because of a Pioneer hype at this moment

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Post by pierreb » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Although it's possible those Urza decks need some kind of nerf, it is a Modern offseason until April. I expect no changes for many months to come.
That sounds awfully like saying Wizards would ban only to shake up the format. I really do hope they would take actions if they think action should be taken and not delay it. Are they *so* busy monitoring pioneer that they can't think and discuss modern?

Arena vs Modern is a valid point. I don't think it spells the end of modern, but it could very well severely limit the influx of new players. I've not watched pioneer much, every time I did it was to see an unchecked monstrosity (like nexus + reclamation). It didn't look like a format I'd like.

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