[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Ym1r
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Post by Ym1r » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Wizards wrongly assumes its players have infinite patience and capacity to put up with changes, mistakes, and Magic pulling us in too many directions. That's wrong and will lead to long-term, even short-term, losses.
They likely know that it is costly, difficult, time consuming, and demoralizing to sell out of collections. Many people not in dire financial stress will just sit on their cards and hope things get better. I mean, I feel like that's a good chunk of Modern players, especially these past few years.
That's basically me. I have been playing on and off (mostly on though) since 2002. I have sold bulk rares from time to time, but for the most part I have been keeping what I get (including trading of course). However, it's not so much about "hoping" it will get better. It's just that that's my collection, these are the cards I have acquired over the years, and unless, as you said, there is a need, why sell them? I am not sitting on them as if they are a pile of money (even though they are sort of). I keep them because I want to.
Counter, draw a card.

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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

Saying that Modern will fall/wither/die based on the enthusiasm for Pioneer is insulting to both Modern and Pioneer players.

Pioneer has its own merits and target group, mostly the same target that Modern has had all these years, namely newer players playing their non-standard legal cards. It's a brand new format with (as of 4th of Nov) 3 banned cards, so players can do -almost- whatever they want, especially at the FNM level, same as Modern. On the competitive scene there'll be stratification of decks, same as any other format, Modern included.

Applying your own jaded biases based on Modern experiences on why people are hyped about Pioneer is wrong. If you don't enjoy Modern, that's fine, give Pioneer a shot, but don't expect a paradise. The format will be as competitively diverse as Modern, but with Standard-level answers and Legacy-level questions. Control/tempo is almost non-existent, as is land and proper stack interaction. Ramp will still reign supreme, as will combo. Marvel's just lurking in the corner.

Also, decrying Pioneer hype as a hit on Modern's quality is misplaced. Pioneer is new and shiny, we still don't know how the format will be when the hype will die down or how intrusive the banlist will be. Modern is Modern. It has had it's ebbs and flows (outside Eldrazi and Hogaak), as it tries to process new (very) powerful toys. It's just one month after Eldraine's release and the format still hasn't properly digested Oko, or Urza for that matter.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Hey, I'm famous. :hmm: :love: :halo: :party: :thinking: :crazy:


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Post by Bearscape » 1 year ago

I'd honestly be pretty fine with Modern becoming Legacy's patched version over the years.

Give me U Instant draw 2 put 1 on top. We'll call it Brain-stiff-breeze or something.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Hey, I'm famous. :hmm: :love: :halo: :party: :thinking: :crazy:

That's sweet, and their answer was even better. Spread it everywhere and maybe it will happen one day. (And bridge from below could be added too.)

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

I remember the start of Modern. I made a fortune on it. It was brave of me to sell out if Standard but with enthusiasm I did just that. The format was an actual alternative to extended and standard because it did not rotate, and was unexplored territory.
It was new, Legacy was the only comparable thing, but the meta was not established and you could brew anything. Souls Sisters or Martyr proc offered different types of game play to Legacy. Not all about spells (Legacy) , not all about creatures. Remember a lot of sets post Modern have changed Legacy- Thespian Stages, a billion hatebears, pushed Walkers etc. Legacy felt different back then. The stage seemed wide open.
Only on closer inspection as time and bans evolved did the lack of tutoring and filtering mean that answer decks were actually much worse in Modern than Legacy,


Frontier always felt like the only people who wanted it were those who could not afford Modern.

Pioneer is interesting - I cannot play landkill, Moon, Chalice or 8 rack or most prison strategies, I probably will just play basic aggro/tempo decks and try my hand at pillow forting with enchantments.
I don't think I can afford not to play it, and my reduction of Modern cards, ongoing over five years now will probably stop soon. Pioneer changed nothing in that respect - I had loads of Modern catds but play the finance game too much to be too exposed in such a volatile format.

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Post by Mapccu » 1 year ago

Imho pioneer is a pretty big win for wizards, and a little surprised they started it with rav 2.0 but that's besides the point.

Wizards has a tight balancing act to walk when reprinting modern. Wallet fatigue is real and sets that have catered to too many groups can end up flopping. Masters and standard reprints are the only times they can access the value of the secondary markets.

With pioneer it's a shot in the arm for buying standard decks/packs because you can tell yourself it'll have a higher probability of splashing in pioneer long term when the bar to get into modern is just so high now. More money for wizards.

For store owners they saw huge stock price increases overnight and are now moving cards they could have never moved like wild slash.

The grinders probably have most of the cards they need already.

Once these initial set of bans hit, the format will congeal a bit. It should, in theory, get easier to maintain than modern.

The only people who lose are those heavily invested in modern. I sold out of a huge chunk this last week and I'm thinking of doing another land base move here soon. Modern has been a cluster for well over a year to me now.

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

I have been selling slowly out of Modern for about 4 years- whenever a ban looks likely, or whenever a deck's price got too much not to sell, the cards got sold. Legacy has far more stable card prices.
I had 30 (30!) Modern decks at one point, operating a loaning library of every top archetype, just to keep the format going in the first couple of years where we were. That was years ago, and I have been reducing them down to the ones I actually play (5, including two which are actually just minor variations on the same deck) plus a couple of hate bear decks that I might play and can loan (Eldrazi and Taxes etc.). The reason I ended up with so many was selling out of standard; I acquired all the modern staples for peanuts at the start- shocks were £20-30 at the start, Misty rainforests maybe £4, I had many of the shocks in old files and swapped many of them into fetchlands that became expensive staples. Commander's explosion and a half decent eye for a sleeper (plus doing well regular drafts) meant that I could keep Modern going for basically free, eventually having 30 decks paid for by sales.

I have many reasons to be grateful to Modern, but would suggest the writing is not on the wall for Legacy, rather Modern will take a step back-not to obscurity, nor even to Legacy levels, just less priominent than now. Players who %$#% about the format can now go and do Pioneer which is free of the things they hate. Personally I love hate cards that upset people- Chalice, 3 sphere, T3feri etc, but can play them more effectively in Legacy where the matches feel less lopsided.

One LGS I know has moved modern to Thursday, Pioneer being an FNM format now, Legacy being a well-attended once a month FNM thing. I would suggest Legacy might even pick up a few Modern players, those who have a fair few Modern staples can buy a couple of duals and have a competitive Legacy deck that will offset loses in Snapcasters etc with gains in Volcanics. D N T is a cheap-ish buy in too.

Store owners and single sellers will rejoice, the only people likely shafted totally are those with massive modern-only staples and no recent cards. With a new format an inevitability, I feel many people will have had at least a few Copters et al. put away. Prices are currently low for buy in to Pioneer, that won't last but the lands won't be the bottleneck. I would expect prices to rise, but with large print runs the cost will be close to the low end of Modern.

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Post by Mapccu » 1 year ago

Thing is, cards that have been good in modern that are pioneer legal people already have. It's only a matter of time before cards like k command start to resurface in this format too.

Fwiw the new format may canabalize modern to a large degree but it will also increase the stickiness of players to the game. The less likely you are the leave the better the game can grow by attracting new players. Big win in the long run.

I'm hoping if there is some price burn on the modern community it helps bring standard pricing on potentially legacy playable in line in future sets. once upon a time didn't stand a chance at being priced fairly imho lol.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

Fwiw the new format may canabalize modern to a large degree but it will also increase the stickiness of players to the game. The less likely you are the leave the better the game can grow by attracting new players. Big win in the long run.
Completely agree with that.
I think people with standard rotated cards too weak to use in modern have a chance to use those again in Pioneer.

the price drops did hit me hard with the downfall of tarmogoyf and some other cards. My losses ate away the profits gained from selling sfm and sofai. Or perhaps I should be thankful to sfm, that she got unban first before Pioneer so there was something to neutralize the losses.
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Post by pierreb » 1 year ago

PIoneer will be a more powerful format than any non-broken standard format. So, I don't think people will be able to use their standard cards too weak for modern. These post-rotation cards will be played casual decks that get beaten by the staple pioneer decks that will emerge shortly.

You won't get as much stomped as in modern, but you will get stomped. You won't be on the same level as established decks.

(Obv, i'm talking in general. There will always be new emerging decks from time to time. Like in modern.)

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

Pioneer is broken. To broken for a new format. Hype is here, but I don't think it's a fair hype because it's a healthy format... Because there is no healthy I can see. I don't know, but I don't believe modern at beginning was broken like Pioneer in beginning. Prices is not a argument to me, because this will changes soon and allready changed. What changed after this? I really can't see behind more profit for hasbro

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
Pioneer is broken. To broken for a new format. Hype is here, but I don't think it's a fair hype because it's a healthy format... Because there is no healthy I can see. I don't know, but I don't believe modern at beginning was broken like Pioneer in beginning. Prices is not a argument to me, because this will changes soon and allready changed. What changed after this? I really can't see behind more profit for hasbro
Well, WotC banned Leyline of Abundance instead of Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx in Pioneer. Did anyone expect Pioneer not to be broken.

I think I'm going to get my Combo fix much more in Pioneer. :grin:
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - MBA, UB Inverter
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Yawmoth Chord, Uroza
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by robertleva » 1 year ago

Pioneer will almost necessarily cannibalize Modern players. I certainly don't want to set aside disposable income for two nonrotating formats, and I definitely don't want to set aside mental bandwidth. It's exhausting keeping up with all the hot Modern takes, metagame developments, new strategies, articles, etc., and that's as a relatively casual player these days. Most of us don't have the resources to keep up with both Modern and Pioneer at a competitive level, to say nothing of Arena and Standard sapping most of our time because, let's face it, most of us probably play that too.

This is yet another misguided Wizards policy in a terrible year of decisions. Wizards has talked at length about how players should be able to play Magic how they want. That's all well and good when your Magic-playing options are distinct, but becomes very problematic when they overlap heavily. Or when Wizards misidentifies the thing people like about a format. I suspect most people don't give a crap whether they are playing Legacy or Modern or Pioneer because they don't actually care too much about the cards in those formats. They care significantly more about having a supported, nonrotating format where they can play 1-2 decks for years to come. These players will play whatever format is going to have the most ongoing support and opportunities for play. More nonrotating competitors just reduces the overall number of players in any given format and increases wallet and mental fatigue. Wizards wrongly assumes its players have infinite patience and capacity to put up with changes, mistakes, and Magic pulling us in too many directions. That's wrong and will lead to long-term, even short-term, losses.
This is definitely true BUT it does miss one very important fact: Pioneer is actually fun to play. The player base will forgive them an infinite amount sins as long as they keep us entertained. Pioneer is simply fun. Sure some of that is "new format smell" but let's be honest, Modern players all have format fatigue to one degree or another. WOTC screwed the pooch on modern too many times for too many years.

Pioneer is their reset button on Modern, they honestly should just shelf modern now, IN a few years the differences in card pool between Modern and Pioneer will be silly. The really sad part is that Legacy, as many here pointed out, is now dead. SCG cannot support more than 2 non rotating formats, the demand and logistics just don't work. But the demand for Legacy is the same as before Pioneer. The demand for Modern is less. Legacy shouldnt be the one punished...
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

robertleva wrote:
1 year ago
Pioneer is simply fun. Sure some of that is "new format smell" but let's be honest, Modern players all have format fatigue to one degree or another. WOTC screwed the pooch on modern too many times for too many years.
Fact. It was denied and denied and denied, but Modern has not been healthy for some time.
robertleva wrote:
1 year ago
Pioneer is their reset button on Modern, they honestly should just shelf modern now, IN a few years the differences in card pool between Modern and Pioneer will be silly. The really sad part is that Legacy, as many here pointed out, is now dead. SCG cannot support more than 2 non rotating formats, the demand and logistics just don't work. But the demand for Legacy is the same as before Pioneer. The demand for Modern is less. Legacy shouldnt be the one punished...
Legacy just suffers the Reserve list. As long as your cards can 'start' at $479.99 (Volcanic Island 3rd Edition) and they cannot be reprinted? Thats a dead format. I dont care what anyone says. Its now a format for collectors. And thats fine! It however is not one for PLAYING the game.

If Legacy events ran at a loss (as the Reddit post would say) then yeah, the writing is on the wall.

Here's the rub. Wizards can, and will, make more money off Modern. Until that ceases to be true, it will be 'supported'. Will it be IMPROVED? Will it be FIXED?

Not likely, and so I ultimately agree with you and I put my money where my mouth was (has been) and quit Modern completely. The value for time invested simply is not there.
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

Pioneer is going to need a lot of bans before they can get any kind of "diversity." One thing I kind of like about how WotC began Pioneer is that they didn't pre-ban certain cards (well, they did for the fetchlands, sadly, to me), but at least the ban list didn't start with 20 cards. I feel that WotC at least learned their lesson a little bit with Modern. People think that the people working at WotC are idiots. They are not. It just takes them a lot longer to realize something than the average Modern/Pioneer/Magic Grinder.

I mean, you have to admit that this was a huge allure to Pioneer. They didn't just pre-ban all of Standard's former boogeymen - Cat, Marvel, Looter Scooter, Emrakul, the Promised End, and more. It also makes it tough to gauge certain cards like Treasure Cruise, Dig Through Time, and Deathrite Shaman, who have all gotten banned from Modern and Legacy. Are they going to be okay for Pioneer? (For what it's worth, I do believe that Deathrite Shaman will be okay, but Cruise and Dig will have to eventually go.) Then there are potential problems like Oko, Thief of Crowns, Teferi, Time Raveler, Field of the Dead, Narset, Parter of Veils, and possibly more.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - MBA, UB Inverter
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Yawmoth Chord, Uroza
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by Bearscape » 1 year ago

Pioneer also has the advantage of coming at a time where all the other formats are just kind of %$#%. Standard is unplayable, Legacy is unaffordable, and the top decks in Modern are now burn, eldrazi, urza, tron, amulet and death shadow? Shadow is the only one of those that I would deem a somewhat enjoyable matchup.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

top decks in Modern are now burn, eldrazi, urza, tron, amulet and death shadow
Burn, Eldrazi, and Shadow are fine for me. Tron is ok too. No experience on Urza.
The match up I dislike the most is amulet, because it's tiresome watching them and counting their mana. :dizzy:
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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

robertleva wrote:
1 year ago
This is definitely true BUT it does miss one very important fact: Pioneer is actually fun to play. The player base will forgive them an infinite amount sins as long as they keep us entertained. Pioneer is simply fun. Sure some of that is "new format smell" but let's be honest, Modern players all have format fatigue to one degree or another. WOTC screwed the pooch on modern too many times for too many years.
I would only add to this that Pioneer COULD actually be fun to play. It currently has a lot of issues from my own MTGO experience, but bans are likely to resolve that. In that regard, Pioneer represents a significant improvement over Modern in that its initial banlist is being built from the ground up. Contrast with Modern and its arbitrary ban starting list. Pioneer will eventually become the "better" Modern, at which point we'll see it become the primary nonrotating format. Sadly, Legacy (a more enjoyable format than Modern in my own personal experience and opinion) is the casualty here, and it's Legacy that will suffer most before Modern eventually fades out.

For those that think Modern can coexist with Pioneer the same way we see formats like Standard/Limited or Modern/Legacy or Modern/Standard coexist in the past, I disagree with this. I maintain the major draw of Modern has nothing to do with the card pool or types of decks you can play. The two major draws are the perception/partial-reality that you can play anything you want, and that your cards don't rotate so you can invest in long-term decks. Pioneer is more than capable of fulfilling those promises. Once it does, this will result in both long-term and even short-term decline in Modern popularity and viability. Expect this to become noticeable by 2021 or 2022, when I predict we will see decreased Modern support in exchange for increased Pioneer support.
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Post by True-Name Nemesis » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Pioneer represents a significant improvement over Modern in that its initial banlist is being built from the ground up. Contrast with Modern and its arbitrary ban starting list.
Looking at SFM's aggressively average impact on the format now and thinking how the hell did it take WoTC this many years to unban something this average.

Pioneer wouldn't even be an idea if Modern was well-managed w.r.t their vision and philosophy in guiding the format.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Pioneer will eventually become the "better" Modern, at which point we'll see it become the primary nonrotating format.
For as good as it may be, it will never have the consistency of fetchlands. As good as manabases can be without them, they are still woefully inadequate at alleviating the inevitable color screw that is baked into Magic's land system.

I don't know if this is a good or bad thing, but it definitely means that innate variance will be higher, and the ability to cast color-intensive spells considerably more difficult.

Maybe this means more mono and two-color decks? Or that the slower overall speed might allow for clunkier manabases? Dunno. I've only been playing UR Burds, and it already feels hard to keep up with all the individual blue and red pips.
True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Pioneer represents a significant improvement over Modern in that its initial banlist is being built from the ground up. Contrast with Modern and its arbitrary ban starting list.
Looking at SFM's aggressively average impact on the format now and thinking how the hell did it take WoTC this many years to unban something this average.

Pioneer wouldn't even be an idea if Modern was well-managed w.r.t their vision and philosophy in guiding the format.
There is a laundry list of examples of WOTC's utter incompetence and inability to understand Modern and its meta. Stoneforge is just the latest piece of loonacy, as it remained banned as Hogaak and Urza were printed. Their lack of awareness knows no bounds.
Last edited by cfusionpm 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by drmarkb » 1 year ago

Outside of the USA Legacy will remain unchanged. It was 90 pc a community format prior to the SCG announcement. . SCG do nothing to alter that outside of half of the USA.
In the UK, Europe, Japan, Australia etc. the format is unchanged and just as loved.

Modern is frankly buggered in the long run. It relies on support from big events but the format is always one step away from being utter pants, because Mtg nowadays is designed by people reading data that says most people, mainly casuals, don't like being told "no". The data generated by surveys is balls, I have always filled them in describing casual edh or brawl games I never had because I want them to alter their policies. Many people do the same, because it is easy to see what they want. Survey ends at question 5 because you don't play brawl? Go onto a different IP and do it again! 25 more questions where you can tell them to change policy.

The problem with modern is that new cards never match up to the Legacy balance provided by great answers and good tutoring for all. Modern will have great answers, but poor tutoring to get them,and that is why it fails.

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Post by robertleva » 1 year ago

True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
Pioneer represents a significant improvement over Modern in that its initial banlist is being built from the ground up. Contrast with Modern and its arbitrary ban starting list.
Looking at SFM's aggressively average impact on the format now and thinking how the hell did it take WoTC this many years to unban something this average.

Pioneer wouldn't even be an idea if Modern was well-managed w.r.t their vision and philosophy in guiding the format.
Jitte would have even less impact on the format that SFM did, but if you even suggest it they get the pitchforks and torches around here. Meh whatever, I don't even care any more. Modern is currently on a realllly long death cycle. It will have a few years of death throws while WOTC gets whatever cash is left to wring from the format before they bury it for good.
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Post by MashedPotato » 1 year ago

robertleva wrote:
1 year ago
Meh whatever, I don't even care any more. Modern is currently on a realllly long death cycle. It will have a few years of death throws while WOTC gets whatever cash is left to wring from the format before they bury it for good.
By lifting the power level of Standard for a while now (which then also impacts Modern power level) they have inevitably busted every other format.

Pioneer looks good, but I can't buy into another non-rotating format yet (I just bought into GDS before pioneer was annoucned) and I agree though, WOTC will drain modern of all the money its worth and end it. Although I really do like Modern (aside from the busted combos) for the ability to see some really janky decks at local level do well. There could be a period where they rewrite the ban list looking at all the stats prior to years end (or financial year) rather than reactive banning constantly and consult some people who play the game and their communities for input.

edit: I think golden goose is a problem in standard > oko, but thats another discussion.
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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
There is a laundry list of examples of WOTC's utter incompetence and inability to understand Modern and its meta. Stoneforge is just the latest piece of loonacy, as it remained banned as Hogaak and Urza were printed. Their lack of awareness knows no bounds.
I typically defend Wizards, or at least question criticism aimed at them, but 2019 has been a horrible year for format management. Arena has been great. Product releases and preview seasons are sweet. But card design and format management? Terrible. It feels like something broke every other month.

-KCI ban in January 2019.
-Overwhelming Izzet Phoenix share in Spring 2019.
-WAR brings us T3feri, Narset, and Karn, which proceed to hurt or break formats.
-MH1 slaps Legacy with W6 and ruins Modern with Hogaak.
-Wizards decides to fix the Hogaak problem and bans.... Bridge!
-Hogaak REALLY ruins Modern. Karn simultaneously breaks Vintage
-Hogaak and Karn banned/restricted in respective formats in August 2019. Also, byebye Looting.
-Field breaks Standard. Field gets banned.
-Oko/Goose/Nissa/OUT break Standard. Ban incoming.
-Insert Historic mismanagement throughout this timeline leading into the Pioneer announcement.

Of particular concern is the dual, high profile failures of Play Design and R&D this year; many of the above problems are directly attributable to them. On the one hand, I believe both PD and R&D tried to push boundaries this year and may have done so as an experiment. If so, hopefully they learned some valuable lessons and will make corrections next year. On the other hand, there are some spectacular missteps in this list, and it's very alarming they happened in the first place. PD is explicitly responsible for preventing the very thing they caused in multiple formats! It's doubly alarming when PD breaks both Standard, its primary focus, and then breaks Modern in the set where their focus is exclusively on Modern. Yikes.

I am cautiously optimistic both PD and R&D will learn from their errors going into 2020 and beyond. Indeed, Pioneer might represent the big picture lesson from their history with Modern. But I still get the feeling that I'm constantly on edge about Magic's health like it could blow up at any time in multiple formats or public relations fronts. Add in the endless content cycle from all formats, personalities, and venues, and never before has Magic as a whole, let alone Modern, felt so exhausting.
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