FoodChainGoblins wrote: ↑
1 year ago
drmarkb wrote: ↑
1 year ago
The price of a non RL card that is stable in price, is nirmally function of both the availability and the demand for that card in the first order. The second order is the liklihood of a reprint and the liklihood of a ban.
When a card is not stable in price all bets are off, as the hype train about new interactions or the mentioning of a card in a podcast can radically alter perceptions of a card and skew the price temporarily.
Mox Opal's price will already factor in the liklihood of a ban as most cards do. Generally the market is pretty good at working out the chances of a direct ban or an indirect one and factoring them in.
I personally would be slightly wary on Opals, if I had the cash spare there are safer bets.
I also do believe that Mox Opal is the most likely ban, if all, for Modern. I don't think it will be the more recent ban announcement, but it will be high on the radar, even if it's not the biggest offender (just like Bridge was high on the radar, while Hogaak was low at that particular time).
I've been noticing a lot of people on FB selling Opals. It seems like a good time to do so and try your play skill at a non Mox Opal deck. I actually really would like to get Judge Mox Opals, but buying them now, even at the "bargain price" they are now and I use that term loosely for a card at a minimum of $100, seems very foolish.
Well I sold mine, but then if you read a few pages back I sold my twin stuff too pre ban. I am, let us say, conservative when it comes to holding cards, which is why I own playsets of Tabernacles and duals and not the more liquid but vulnerable Opals. If you study the history of banned cards quite a few do recover some value at least.
I would wager that with a ban Opal would stagnate sonewhat. Price memory would keep people from selling too low, but lack of demand would stop it from being bought. So it would be one of those cards that just does not move for its price, a bit like Coldsnap Dark Depths doesn't net you ten pounds more than the regular masters printing, it just sits there on Ebay not being sold for more than its reprint cousin.
If it does get a ban a subsequent commander or Battlebond type reprint might then knock it to ten dollars, as people will then own it for the price of a booster, but without that it will likely be in price purgatory after an initial twenty to maybe thirty dollar dip in price, just not moving.