[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

iTaLenTZ
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

"Next B&R Announcement: October 21, 2019"

Emry is a problem and it seems they are going to correct it or at least give themselves a window of opportunity if needed. The next few weeks are going to be determining. With the Loothing ban they said they want the game to shift from the graveyard to the battlefied and Emry has done exactly the opposite. I am already seeing people maining 4 Leyline of the Void again.

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

YM1R, only little sidenote... People didn't stopped playing lantern becausee it was bad, they stopped becazse they jumped to the next better mox opal deck and this was Kci. And Kci player didn't stopped because it was bad, they get a ban and now a lot of this player base still plays mox opal decks with urza. I knew some of them and they all evolved same way, lantern, Kci,urza... So lantern didn't dyed, it was only not the most busted mox deck anymore and this is dangerous because even lantern was to much degenerated for a lot of people

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Post by Ym1r » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
"Next B&R Announcement: October 21, 2019"

Emry is a problem and it seems they are going to correct it or at least give themselves a window of opportunity if needed. The next few weeks are going to be determining. With the Loothing ban they said they want the game to shift from the graveyard to the battlefied and Emry has done exactly the opposite. I am already seeing people maining 4 Leyline of the Void again.
There is about 0% chance that we will see another Modern ban is such sort time. It is pretty clear that the banning will be aimed towards standard and the menace that is Field of the Dead. I don't know where do you see people maining 4 Leyline of the Void, but definitely not on the 5-0 lists and the successful tournament lists.
Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
YM1R, only little sidenote... People didn't stopped playing lantern becausee it was bad, they stopped becazse they jumped to the next better mox opal deck and this was Kci. And Kci player didn't stopped because it was bad, they get a ban and now a lot of this player base still plays mox opal decks with urza. I knew some of them and they all evolved same way, lantern, Kci,urza... So lantern didn't dyed, it was only not the most busted mox deck anymore and this is dangerous because even lantern was to much degenerated for a lot of people
That's only partially true though. Lantern plays a lot differently than Urza decks and wins in different ways. At the same time, people still play other Mox decks like Affinity and Hardened Scales, so not everyone is just jumping on what is considered the best mox opal deck. Also, saying that Lantern was the most busted mox opal deck might be true, but it clearly wasn't the most busted deck in modern, hence it still exists just fine. KCI was the only broken deck, which was clear from its win ration, and the namesake card was banned for it. Is Urza ultimately a busted deck? Maybe, maybe not, we literally just don't know yet.
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Post by ModernDefector » 1 year ago

Ym1r wrote:
1 year ago
ModernDefector wrote:
1 year ago
What's everyone's predictions for future bannings in the shltshow that is Modren?

Mine: Within six months, Opal and Urza banned. Within a year, Ancient Stirrings and/or Once Upon a Time banned.
Yeeeeah that's completely unrealistic and completely unjustified. For one, they would never go for 4 bans within a year
Literally happened this year lol.

And two years ago.

And two years before that.

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Post by Simto » 1 year ago

ModernDefector wrote:
1 year ago
Ym1r wrote:
1 year ago
ModernDefector wrote:
1 year ago
What's everyone's predictions for future bannings in the shltshow that is Modren?

Mine: Within six months, Opal and Urza banned. Within a year, Ancient Stirrings and/or Once Upon a Time banned.
Yeeeeah that's completely unrealistic and completely unjustified. For one, they would never go for 4 bans within a year
Literally happened this year lol.

And two years ago.

And two years before that.
If Once Upon A Time could justify a ban in your book, then I don't look forward to the boring %$#% show modern will become when we end up playing 60 basic lands vs 60 basic lands.

Does anybody here actually have fun playing Modern or Magic in general? It sure doesn't seem like it. I for one really enjoy it, but I "only" play at FNM level, so I guess my argument is invalid here.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Simto wrote:
1 year ago
Does anybody here actually have fun playing Modern or Magic in general? It sure doesn't seem like it. I for one really enjoy it, but I "only" play at FNM level, so I guess my argument is invalid here.
I have a really busy work schedule and a little baby at home, so my time to play paper is limited to maybe one FNM a month these days. With that in mind, the natural, wildly swinging variance between possible deck matchups can make for some pretty awful evenings or pretty amazing ones, depending on what my opponent is doing. So my paper experiences are super hit and miss, and the "misses" often make me question why I play in paper at all anymore.

But online, I can readily play for free and not have any negative recourse for conceding a terrible game/match. I can also immediately jump into another instead of waiting 20+ minutes for the next round to start. Transitioning to MTGO has done wonders for me loving Modern, but it's mostly because I avoid a lot of the truly awful things that define the competitive format.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

Simto wrote:
1 year ago
Does anybody here actually have fun playing Modern or Magic in general? It sure doesn't seem like it. I for one really enjoy it, but I "only" play at FNM level, so I guess my argument is invalid here.
Magic in General? Not really. Limited is not for me. Standard was ruined by War of the Spark and I never went back. Legacy is too rich, Vintage doesnt exist to me, and EDH is cool, but I dont have the time for it.

Modern? I played it, a lot. I sleeved up a fun miracles deck (fun to me, Terminus is a dumb card) and Mystic Sanctuary is exactly the kind of card I like.

Most Modern decks however? No. I dont enjoy playing against them. Prior to the looting ban, even PRE-Hogaak, I found Modern unbearable to play for over a year.

I dont know how it is now, but the last time Modern was great, to me, was the unbanning of Jace/BBE, because we could play UWR with a straight face.

Maybe Modern is ok now, I dont know. I'm playing WoW Classic. :p
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Post by ModernDefector » 1 year ago

Simto wrote:
1 year ago
If Once Upon A Time could justify a ban in your book, then I don't look forward to the boring %$#% show modern will become when we end up playing 60 basic lands vs 60 basic lands.
Prediction ≠ preference

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

Arkmer wrote:
1 year ago
The only one I've tried is a single Mystic Sanctuary and it has been good enough to want to keep. However, it isn't card advantage if you're looping Cryptics, it creates a fake card density. The Cryptic loop really put my opponents on edge a few games. They know that their spells are more finite than mine and their tempo is falling behind with it. However, having extra ways to draw cards is pretty important if you're going to further your own tempo through it all. Basically felt like a soft lock that also locks you to an extent as well.

Haven't used any of the castles yet. They just don't seem to want to fit in 3 color decks with all the other lands. Least not comfortably.
thanks for the feedback on mystic sanctuary. Guess I should get a few copies too. Might be useful in my ub, don't have cryptics, but I do have plenty of instant and sorcery that can be recurred by the land.
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Post by motleyslayer » 1 year ago

I'm interested to see why they moved the next B and R to the 21st, I personally think the format is fine right now but maybe they have other plans

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Post by Albegas » 1 year ago

It could simply be that they want to have more B&R announcements to prevent another Hogaak Hoedown. They don't have to act on every B&R announcement, but Hogaak was a pretty good example of what happens when there aren't enough. There could be a hidden agenda, but I'd rather have more announcements than less

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

motleyslayer wrote:
1 year ago
I'm interested to see why they moved the next B and R to the 21st, I personally think the format is fine right now but maybe they have other plans
Most likely just Field of the Dead in Standard, but they may be looking into Modern and especially Pauper from what I hear.
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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
My deck was Jeskai control for years. I thought that SFM being around(not in the deck) and looting ban would make it a lot more playable, but it's just a tier 2/3 deck still. Modern is still too brutal of a format to play with cute Jeskai control decks with electrolyze (which I love) and even if I don't have the time to play those days (it will surely come around), I will try to play with Amulet Titan one month from now, when I will have some free time.
Modern is just going mox opal and big mana as it seems and toolbox/small creatures are going down b/c of W6 & Plague engineer. Two reasons I don't like the new Modern era. At this point, I am willing to say that there are at least 2-3 cards that could easily come off the BL and make no impact.

Oh, I also watched the new PO, Emry, Ascendancy deck going off at turn 3-4 multiple times and taking 5 times to win.
So, the tier 1 of Modern is now, Tron, Mox Opal(PO, Whirza, PO with Ascendansy), Burn, Dredge, Amulet Titan and maybe Dredge? That does not sound any good, if true.
They're not really Mox Opal decks though, they mostly Urza and his trinkets. As for T1 add Shadow decks, UW and Infect. I'd add that mill has been an extremely good choice and got even better with Drown and Sanctuary.
motleyslayer wrote:
1 year ago
I'm interested to see why they moved the next B and R to the 21st, I personally think the format is fine right now but maybe they have other plans
It's after the Standard Mythic championship, so they moved it up in case Golos/Field of the Dead decks dominate the event.

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

The sad thing is Emry would probably have been fine without affinity. Now she just comes too soon and does too much. On stream I am seeing people consistently win on turn 2-3. Emry is pretty much an ancient stirrings that also nullifies artifact removal. Also some play 8 moxes, that is more than the usual in even Vintage! The deck also gets to play 4 Engineered Explosives in the main without any downsides so its also very hard to pressure these decks in the early game and reminds me of KCI. I simply don't see Emry staying legal for 3 months.

Edit: Its still new and people need to catch up and receive the memo. A turn 1 Emry is guaranteed when you play 8 Moxes, 4 EE, 4 Bauble. Your opponent now has 1 turn to deal with Emry or its game over. You might not even lose on the spot but you will be put so far behind there is no reasonable coming back from it. Only Lightning Bolt, Path to Exile and Push+fetch can deal with it. Even if you somehow manage to deal with Emry the deck has other aces. Urza, Paradoxical Outcome and Jeskai Ascendancy. They have so many cantrips it will be easy for them to find another Emry or just flood you with their other threats.

Chalice on 0 or Leyline of the Void seem the only viable hate.

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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

Scg indi started with urza. Turn 1 he played 5 permanents, turn 2 emry and outcome drawing 5485 cards... This is gg. If we see this more this and next week, it will sure banned too something and not only standard next time. Turn 3 he had 14 permanents in play and opponent stoneforge, lol

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Post by Arkmer » 1 year ago

I guess I would be sort of surprised if they gave something in Whirza Outcome the axe, but if it's starting to show its power and gaining momentum... I don't know, tough call. If I'm 50/50, I assume WotC is no change for Modern, lol.
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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Thenarus wrote:
1 year ago
If Hogaak didn't eat an emergency ban, there's no way anything from the Urza decks will. Early results seem to suggest that these are the decks to beat, but it's too early to be calling for bans (yet).
Quoted for emphasis. If Hogaak didn't get Wizards to emergency ban something, I doubt any Modern scenario in the future ever will. I can see some Standard scenarios resulting in emergency bans, just because of the blistering tempo of format evolution/gameplay due to Arena/MTGO/paper tournaments (and Standard being the flagship format). But if Hogaak Summer didn't do it, an era where Hogaak was a 100% foregone ban before it ruined three major GP, then nothing is realistically going to reach that bar. Decks may and likely will still see bans in the future, but they will be at normally scheduled intervals.
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
motleyslayer wrote:
1 year ago
I'm interested to see why they moved the next B and R to the 21st, I personally think the format is fine right now but maybe they have other plans
Most likely just Field of the Dead in Standard, but they may be looking into Modern and especially Pauper from what I hear.
I agree this is likely a response to Standard. Between MTGO/MTGA, paper events, MC5, and other major events, Wizards will have a significant dataset to draw metagame conclusions from. If a card like Field is hurting their flagship format with a new set release thrown in, something is going to get banned. I suspect Modern isn't currently on their radar at all. We don't have an individual GP until November and I don't remember a time where Wizards banned something without both GP and PT/MC data to back it up. The closest was GGT, which had few T8 performances when banned, but that still happened after a string of GP where Dredge did put up results.
Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
Scg indi started with urza. Turn 1 he played 5 permanents, turn 2 emry and outcome drawing 5485 cards... This is gg. If we see this more this and next week, it will sure banned too something and not only standard next time. Turn 3 he had 14 permanents in play and opponent stoneforge, lol
As usual, cherrypicked examples of powerful Modern decks doing broken lines have never been a good argument to ban a card/deck. It's extremely easy and misleading to reduce a Modern deck to its most broken line and call for a ban based on that scenario. Thankfully, Wizards does not operate this way. Instead, Wizards looks at a deck's overall format impact and overall performance metrics over thousands of games gathered on MTGO. With no individual GP until November and the focus squarely on Standard, I suspect we don't see any changes until at least late 2019.

Re: Whirza/Emry/Opal/etc.
On the one hand, early signs point to some iteration of this deck being the best thing you can do in Modern. This was clear in Hogaak Summer, when all the performance metrics pointed to Whirza variants being the best thing even with Hogaak around, and it's clear now. Like I said a few days ago, it's the secretly-not-so-secretly best deck in the format and you should probably be playing it. All of that generally points to a deck being bannable.

On the other hand, we have really bad data in Modern right now and minimal incentive to brew/iterate/evolve. Pro attention is on Standard. Most players are digging deep into MTGA and its Standard offerings. There aren't major Modern events until November, and Team Events naturally warp towards perceived best decks. All of this suggests we don't actually know what the "true" best decks are, and we don't have enough datapoints to draw strong conclusions. This blunts my own earlier assessment of the deck above and suggests it might be much more aligned with everything else top-tier Modern decks are doing. Personally, I'm in a clear wait-and-see position until we get more reliable numbers.
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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

I sayed if we see this more this week and next... I didn't say ban it because I watched it one time, so it is not cherry picking

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

On an unrelated-to-Urza note, MTGO prices are usually a good indicator of relative power/strength of a card. I went to sell the rest of my MTGO Stoneforges yesterday and saw that they dropped allll the way back to their pre-unban price. That pretty much confirms everything I thought about the strength of the card. Paper price will continue to stay high, because that's what always happens (remember how Ancestral Vision was $50 for more than a year?! :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: )
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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
I sayed if we see this more this week and next... I didn't say ban it because I watched it one time, so it is not cherry picking
We could see that line on camera 10 weeks in a row and it wouldn't make the deck or any card bannable. The most important elements that go into a ban decision are T8 prevalence, MTGO prevalence, and win rates. Egregious on-camera performances can be indicators of larger problems, but board states in single, highly visible games are really not relevant for ban decisions.
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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

If we see a deck often on camera and if it is broken on camera... So it is a indicator, believe it or not. We saw last week a lot of boring standard field games on cam all day long and some days after they changed the ban announcement, so please it's absolutely wrong believing you can do this 10 weeks in a row. No you can't, it's important. Community will pressure this... Thousands of people week after week watching it can't be ignored.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Watching this Titan/Urza match just solidifies how divided the power levels are between "tier 1" and "tier2" decks. These decks people say are 'viable' are orders of magnitude weaker than the shenanigans happening on camera at the SCG Open right now.

Edit: In addition to raw power level and perceived strength, looks like post ELD builds of Urza are now creating logistics problems....


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Post by Mtgthewary » 1 year ago

Cfusion this is what I ment, you can't show this week after week if community pressure grows because of this games on cam

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
Cfusion this is what I ment, you can't show this week after week if community pressure grows because of this games on cam
Community pressure is literally all we have right now, too. We have no meaningful GPs for months and MTGO data is either actively hidden or purposely skewed to misrepresent the format. When decks keep having nutso performances on camera, it draws attention, and enough of that attention (backed by secret data we don't have access to) could persuade WOTC to act.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
1 year ago
If we see a deck often on camera and if it is broken on camera... So it is a indicator, believe it or not. We saw last week a lot of boring standard field games on cam all day long and some days after they changed the ban announcement, so please it's absolutely wrong believing you can do this 10 weeks in a row. No you can't, it's important. Community will pressure this... Thousands of people week after week watching it can't be ignored.
I said it could be an indicator. Key word being "could." We aren't going to know until we have more compelling datapoints and better events. Viewers aren't really a great indicator of format health, especially when the viewing statistics can be warped through relatively basic technical tricks (e.g. embedding). A better and more reliable indicator of health is attendance, but even there, it's so complicated to analyze attendance due to the many involved factors. This is why the best indicator is still T8s at major events (we don't have any for a while), MTGO standings (which are admittedly opaque), and win rates (also opaque).

In the absence of those datapoints, the correct approach is not to pretend like alternate datapoints are just as good. It's to acknowledge our current datapoints are, at best, limited and, at worst, suck. The correct posture now is to wait and see, not fall into the Modern alarmism we're seeing on Reddit, Twitter, Twitch, and elsewhere.
cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Watching this Titan/Urza match just solidifies how divided the power levels are between "tier 1" and "tier2" decks. These decks people say are 'viable' are orders of magnitude weaker than the shenanigans happening on camera at the SCG Open right now.
In the past, you have rightfully noted SCG events are not necessarily (or even often) representative of the larger metagame. I believe it was you who once called them "glorified FNMs," and I largely agree with that characterization in many metagames. I am unwilling to make any conclusions about the health of the format based on SCG Opens or non-GP/non-aggregated MTGO events. SCG Opens can certainly represent the larger metagame, but it's by no means a rule and requires other corroborating points.
Edit: In addition to raw power level and perceived strength, looks like post ELD builds of Urza are now creating logistics problems....

Logistical problems are definitely an issue and are also one of the few issues that we can likely translate from an SCG Open into a larger GP. It only takes literally one player to cause them, and if it's happening at Opens, it could happen at later events. I'd put that in the orange flag category, given that it's only one event so far.
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