[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Wraithpk
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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Wraithpk

So, it seems like the testing of Twin vs the Modern gauntlet is on?
Some questions. What version of Twin do we try? Grixis? Straight UR? Jeskai with T3feri? Temur?
I would say that Grixis seems the strongest, but not sure.
Also, what decks are you adept at playing? I can play decent or better all of the Tier 1 modern decks (tribal decks like Humans, midrange decks like Jund, all of control decks, Tron, GDS/JDS, Burn, Mono red prowess, Dredge). It's just that I am not good at playing Whirza and PO decks. I suck at those artifact decks, never got to play with them. How can we solve this?

PS: Because I know that both of us WOULD LOVE to play with Twin, we will probably share our time with the deck. If we play the Grixis Twin variant, on top of the others, there is no chance you get to play it <3
Lol, well I think best practice would be to each play some matches from both sides of each matchup to reduce any bias in case one of us is a better player than the other. I would say start with UR because it'll be the easiest to build.
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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Doesn't 1 copy loop with a single cryptic command? Either way, I have two foils on order for whatever bad deck it ends up in.
Yeah you dont need 2, but a little redundancy isnt a bad thing. :)
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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago


Great. I will pm you to get this started. The Whir problem though? Who will play Whir or PO decks? i dont know how to properly play those.
We'll just have to take turns with it and acknowledge that the results we get are going to be biased towards Twin since neither of us are experienced Whirza/PO Urza players.

Another thought I had, why don't we crowd-source our deck lists here? Seems a good place to get opinions on how we build these decks. Also, for all the non-Twin decks, I think it's important to try and anticipate how these decks might be different if Twin was legal. Not like a 15% Twin meta where we're heavily warping current builds, but like if Twin was 6 or 7% of the meta, how might these decks change? For instance, not that it sees much play today, but people would almost certainly play a card like Terminate instead of Dreadbore, and cards like Fry, Rakdos Charm, Spellskite, and Torpor Orb effects all go up in value in the meta. Basically, I don't want to simulate how Twin would do against current builds, I want to try and simulate how Twin would do in a meta where Twin exists.

So let's start with a current day UR Twin build. My favorite Twin players back in the day were BBD and Patrick Dickmann, but Dickmann was mostly playing Temur. Here's BBD's last list on mtgtop8 before the ban:

Now, here is a list that Todd Anderson put together a year ago for the vs. Live! video where he tested Twin:

Let's start off talking about the manabase. I think we still want 23 lands. I don't think we want Spirebluff Canal in this deck because you really don't want your 4th land coming in tapped, so I think that was just a mistake by Anderson. We can get away with 2 or 3 colorless utility lands if we're not playing Archmage's Charm, and I think 2 of those would be Field of Ruin. I also don't think we need to splash green for Ancient Grudge anymore, we can just play Abrade in the board. So, what I'm thinking for the mana base is this:
How does this look to everyone? Any suggestions?
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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

-1 Fiery Islet, +1 Island seems fine to me. Before we move on from the lands, do we think Archmage's Charm is something Izzet would want, because we probably can't play 3 colorless utility lands if we want to play the Charm. It does seem like an effect Twin would want, but does it outweigh the Fields? I know @Cfusionpm plays a lot of Blue Moon, what do you think?
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

I am about to delete my account due to all this Twin BS. The same people repeating the same arguments for 5 years.

Why don't you focus on today's metagame and how its evolving. Drown in the Loch and Emry might be format warping. There is now a legit reason to play Grixis or Esper over UW control.

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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
I am about to delete my account due to all this Twin BS. The same people repeating the same arguments for 5 years.

Why don't you focus on today's metagame and how its evolving. Drown in the Loch and Emry might be format warping. There is now a legit reason to play Grixis or Esper over UW control.
You're literally in a thread where we primarily talk about the ban list. If you don't like it, don't browse this thread, or just ignore the posts discussing Twin.

On a more constructive note, [mention]gkourou[/mention], I DMd BBD on Twitter and asked his opinion, and he said he'd lean towards the Charm and no Fields. He thinks Field might not be necessary since you can just combo land decks, or play Blood Moon or Alpine Moon out of the board to deal with them. Seems reasonable. He also agreed that Spirebluff Canal seems bad. In that case, I think we want this:
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Post by Arkmer » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
I am about to delete my account due to all this Twin BS. The same people repeating the same arguments for 5 years.

Why don't you focus on today's metagame and how its evolving. Drown in the Loch and Emry might be format warping. There is now a legit reason to play Grixis or Esper over UW control.
It's literally one thread. There's the whole rest of the website to go to. Though, I'll admit this thread seems to be like 50% of the site's traffic (100% a bias statement from me).

Maybe the Twin testing discussion deserves it's own thread? [mention]gkourou[/mention] and [mention]Wraithpk[/mention], is that fair? Maybe up to a Mod ([mention]ktkenshinx[/mention]) to validate the thread because I know similar threads were shut down in the past due to ban/unban discussion outside of the State of Modern thread, but this seems a bit different. I, like maybe others, am interested in their planning this whole "Twin showdown", but also don't want it to clog the actual discussion of the current meta; though I also recognize that moving that topic might just kill this thread for a few days at a time.

Even if it doesn't move, deleting your account doesn't really do anything. Especially if you just keep coming here as a guest anyway.

As to your actual interests:
Drown seems like it could hold some position in the meta and Emry certainly does look like it could break things. Time will tell with them and without any major events it will only take more time. Even with Whirza's current notoriety in the thread and other places, we have little actual data on it so it'll likely remain a quite winner (if even a winner at all) until we see actual data come out.

Whirza isn't played at my shop at all though we have one guy that's slowly building it. I sold him my Opals a few months back.
Last edited by Arkmer 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.
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Maybe I will return... Maybe not.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

I'm all for a good Twin debate (merits, justification, relevance to meta, etc) , but this thread doesn't seem to be the place for theorycrafting a hypothetical build that's supposed to take place in PMs.

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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

Yeah, that's the thing, if you want to play Archmage's Charm, even 1 colorless utility land is pushing it, and if you only want 1 you probably want Loothouse. That's what the Blue Moon decks are doing. BBD said he could see you potentially wanting a Charm or two, so I think I want to try it. Plus, it's something that differentiates the Izzet build from 3 color builds.
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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

Yeah, I'm fine with a separate thread if that's what people want.
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

idSurge wrote:
1 year ago
The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
you seem to like Mystic Sanctuary a lot. I guess there's some way to make good use of it. Although still a question on how many can be put into a deck.
2, I think. You probably dont want 3, and its fetchable, so 2 should be sufficient to set up a loop.
I only just now realized that it's also an island and can be fetched. Nice land.
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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
I am about to delete my account due to all this Twin BS. The same people repeating the same arguments for 5 years.

Why don't you focus on today's metagame and how its evolving. Drown in the Loch and Emry might be format warping. There is now a legit reason to play Grixis or Esper over UW control.
Arkmer wrote:
1 year ago
Maybe the Twin testing discussion deserves it's own thread? gkourou and Wraithpk, is that fair? Maybe up to a Mod (ktkenshinx) to validate the thread because I know similar threads were shut down in the past due to ban/unban discussion outside of the State of Modern thread, but this seems a bit different. I, like maybe others, am interested in their planning this whole "Twin showdown", but also don't want it to clog the actual discussion of the current meta; though I also recognize that moving that topic might just kill this thread for a few days at a time.
cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
I'm all for a good Twin debate (merits, justification, relevance to meta, etc) , but this thread doesn't seem to be the place for theorycrafting a hypothetical build that's supposed to take place in PMs.
Wraithpk wrote:
1 year ago
Yeah, I'm fine with a separate thread if that's what people want.
gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Let's go with 0 FoR, and throw some archmage's charm in the mix. If ktkenshinx think this is the wrong thread, he should move the posts in a separate one. I am unsure as to if a new thread like that creates some problems with potential bantalk.
Twin talk is fine here, even if I am personally over it. Twin testing deck development, however, is not appropriate for this thread. Please keep that to PMs or at the very least another thread in Modern general.
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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

Ok, no problem. We can do a group DM, who wants to be included in the discussion?
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Post by Lear_the_cat » 1 year ago

Hello guys.
What do you think about new variations of artifact combo decks with Emry? Especially build with Jeskai Ascendancy.
It feels like banned KCI - not that easy to hate even with Stony Silence (resilient to hate), deck can go off on turn 2 and has good midrange plan thanks to Sai and Urza.
Is it a real reason to worry about Mox Opal to be banned to slow down this combo deck?

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Post by Bearscape » 1 year ago

Lear_the_cat wrote:
1 year ago
Hello guys.
What do you think about new variations of artifact combo decks with Emry? Especially build with Jeskai Ascendancy.
It feels like banned KCI - not that easy to hate even with Stony Silence (resilient to hate), deck can go off on turn 2 and has good midrange plan thanks to Sai and Urza.
Is it a real reason to worry about Mox Opal to be banned to slow down this combo deck?
I haven't seen these versions yet, but I already believe Urza decks to be the best decks in modern. I don't think the deck needs much more support to become bannable at some point.

That being said, I also expect the next 2 banlist updates to be no changes unless we go full-on Eldrazi Winter. The format is just wide open right now.

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Post by True-Name Nemesis » 1 year ago

Trying to be cautiously optimistic after the best month of modern in 2 years. Really hoping the format won't devolve into artifact combo winter.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

Bearscape wrote:
1 year ago
Lear_the_cat wrote:
1 year ago
Hello guys.
What do you think about new variations of artifact combo decks with Emry? Especially build with Jeskai Ascendancy.
It feels like banned KCI - not that easy to hate even with Stony Silence (resilient to hate), deck can go off on turn 2 and has good midrange plan thanks to Sai and Urza.
Is it a real reason to worry about Mox Opal to be banned to slow down this combo deck?
I haven't seen these versions yet, but I already believe Urza decks to be the best decks in modern. I don't think the deck needs much more support to become bannable at some point.

That being said, I also expect the next 2 banlist updates to be no changes unless we go full-on Eldrazi Winter. The format is just wide open right now.
As of now, I don't foresee any impending bans. We know mox opal is being watched by WOTC for a possible ban one day, so buy in at your own risk.
With that being said, jeskia ascendancy was a real combo deck a few years ago when TC, DTT and probe were legal. I know that's alot of support cards, but ascendancy has the ability to be real good. I've not watched this new version in action yet, but it would have to be very dominant to be the cause of a ban. With Whirza using the mox too, at this point, is probably a bigger factor. The list looks cool.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

Wraithpk wrote:
1 year ago
Ok, no problem. We can do a group DM, who wants to be included in the discussion?
please include me. Probably won't talk much, but I'm interested to see how this Twin testing against the current modern goes.
was a Twin player years ago. Have sold the tarn playset, but still have the rest of the cards sealed in a plastic bag.

edit: saw the thread
Last edited by The Fluff 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

Mox Opal is living on burrowed time. I think it has been said before but what makes Whirza and other artifact decks so strong is the fact that they can have explosive early kills combined with a strong mid and inevitable lategame attacking from multiple angles and combo's which make it hard to disrupt. Urza himself might be the real culprit but Mox Opal sees play in everything: Hardened Scales/Affinity/Jeskai Ascendancy/Whirza/Paradoxical Outcome. I think they are fine with Urza and co coming on turn 4 to take over the game but they are not fine with the explosive early kills because it doesn't come at a price of a weaker mid-lategame so they will probably nerf that aspect which means Mox Opal isn't safe.

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Post by Tzoulis » 1 year ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago
Mox Opal is living on burrowed time. I think it has been said before but what makes Whirza and other artifact decks so strong is the fact that they can have explosive early kills combined with a strong mid and inevitable lategame attacking from multiple angles and combo's which make it hard to disrupt. Urza himself might be the real culprit but Mox Opal sees play in everything: Hardened Scales/Affinity/Jeskai Ascendancy/Whirza/Paradoxical Outcome. I think they are fine with Urza and co coming on turn 4 to take over the game but they are not fine with the explosive early kills because it doesn't come at a price of a weaker mid-lategame so they will probably nerf that aspect which means Mox Opal isn't safe.
Everything you said is happening, because of Urza (well, other than the Scales thing). The deck has "explosive early kills" and mid- and late dominance because of Urza, not Opal. The PO deck exists because of Urza. Cutting Opal won't stop urza coming a turn earlier (or even turn 2 with Emry-Mox Amber)

From the lot you mention the only deck that has a turn 2 kill is the Jeskai Ascendacy, and it's not dependent on Mox Opal. Also, its consistency is still up in the air and whether it is better than the regular PO lists and Whirza is debatable.

So instead of clamoring for a ban focus on what counters these decks - which have been mentioned several times in this thread. It's way too early to even think of a possible ban. If anything more unbans should be welcomed in 6-12 months.

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Post by stille_nacht » 1 year ago

Random question not about Urza: Why is it that Goldfish seems to show a much higher concentration of wins than usual?

I have been casually tracking the meta using Goldfish % as a stand in for day 1, and I've very rarely seen above 10% for the number 1 deck, and typically numbers 2-8 hover around ~ 5%. For reference, when it was the best deck in the format, Humans barely broke 10%.

Right now there are 4 decks with above 10%, with burn hovering at 18%. Tron variants account for 25% of the winning meta, which has never been the case before, except I imagine during Eldrazi Winter.

Basically I'm curious if anyone has any opinions or just general speculation on why this is, and what it really means. I only started using goldfish around the time of humans, so I'm wondering if it's been like this before.

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Post by idSurge » 1 year ago

I believe you are looking at meta %, not win %. That number would depend on both the number of events taking place, and the pool of decks being seen.

Its not Win Rate though, unless Burn has somehow become the best deck.
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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

They have a bug that's messing up the meta % numbers. If you add up all the numbers, it comes out to 230%, so just divide each number by 2.3 to find the actual meta %. So Burn is actually at 8%.
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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

Anyone who's interested in following along or contributing to the Twin testing, I made a thread here: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=16911
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

stille_nacht wrote:
1 year ago
Random question not about Urza: Why is it that Goldfish seems to show a much higher concentration of wins than usual?

I have been casually tracking the meta using Goldfish % as a stand in for day 1, and I've very rarely seen above 10% for the number 1 deck, and typically numbers 2-8 hover around ~ 5%. For reference, when it was the best deck in the format, Humans barely broke 10%.

Right now there are 4 decks with above 10%, with burn hovering at 18%. Tron variants account for 25% of the winning meta, which has never been the case before, except I imagine during Eldrazi Winter.

Basically I'm curious if anyone has any opinions or just general speculation on why this is, and what it really means. I only started using goldfish around the time of humans, so I'm wondering if it's been like this before.
The data and numbers represented on MTG Goldfish do not reflect reality or the "meta" of Modern in any meaningful way.

The vast, vast majority of their numbers are pulled from League data, and League data is actively and purposely skewed in such a way that it misrepresents a deck's popularity or meta share.

For example, let's say Wizards recorded the results of 100 decks that 5-0'd a league. 97 of them were Deck A, and there was 1 each of deck B, C, and D. Wizards publishes the data such that A, B, C, and D are all represented equally, because they only represent different decks once. In this case, decks A, B, C, and D would have a meta percent of 25%, 25%, 25% and 25%, instead of the actual 97%. 1%, 1%, and 1%.
So the numbers purposely push up representation of small, rogue decks, and purposely push down percentage of large, popular decks. Decks will never show a large percentage because multiple listings of the same deck are simply not reported.

So not only are the numbers not accurate, they are purposely misleading and skewed. They should honestly be removed from the site to avoid confusion.
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